>>> YOUR LEGISLATORS IS MADE POSSIBLE BY MINNESOTA CORN, FROM DEVELOPING BEST PRACTICES THAT HELP FARMERS BETTER PROTECT OUR NATURAL RESOURCES TO THE LATEST INNOVATIONS IN VALUE ADDED PRODUCTS.
MINNESOTA CORN FARMERS ARE PROUD TO INVEST IN THIRD PARTY RESEARCH LEADING TO A MORE SUSTAINABLE FUTURE FOR OUR LOCAL COMMUNITIES.
MINNESOTA FARMERS UNION, STABBING FOR AGRICULTURE, WORKING FOR FARMERS ON THE WEB AT MFU.ORG.
>> Barry: GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO THIS WEEK'S VERSION OF "YOUR LEGISLATORS".
MY NAME IS BARRY ANDERSON.
I'M THE HOST OF "YOUR LEGISLATORS", THIS WEEK AND ALL THE WEEKS THAT FOLLOW UNTIL THE LEGISLATURE GOES HOME.
THIS WEEK, AS WE HAVE HAD WITH PREVIOUS WEEKS, WE ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY FINDING GUESTS TO JOIN US ON THE SET THIS EVENING BECAUSE THE HOUSE AND SENATE ARE BOTH IN SESSION, BOTH ACTIVELY PARTICIPATING IN FLOOR ACTIONS AND OTHERWISE ARE UNABLE TO JOIN US.
BUT WE HAVE A VERY SPECIAL PROGRAM FOR YOU THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE SUSAN BROWER, STATE DEMOGRAPHER WHO IS GOING TO BE TALKING WITH US ABOUT WHAT THE OFFICE DOES AND IMPORTANCE OF HELPING PEOPLE.
YOU WOULDN'T THINK IT WOULD BE THAT COMPLICATED BUT IT IS.
HE ALSO PROVIDED AS THE SUM OF HIS TIME AND WAS A VERY SUCCESSFUL PROGRAM.
WE ANTICIPATE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE THE SAME KIND OF SUCCESS THIS EVENING.
WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO A CONVERSATION.
I WILL REMIND YOU, THE VIEWERS, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS TOPIC, YOU CAN CALL IT IN USING VARIOUS ELECTRONIC MEANS ON YOUR SCREEN.
UNFORTUNATELY IF YOU CALL QUESTIONS THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER CAN'T HELP YOU WITH THOSE.
WE WILL SAVE THOSE NEXT WEEK.
LET'S BEGIN THIS EVENING BY INVITING THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER BY TELLING US A LITTLE BIT ABOUT OUR HISTORY, AND MAYBE SHE CAN COVER FOR THE VIEWERS.
ALWAYS INTERESTED IN HELPING PEOPLE.
DOES ONE WAKE UP AS A JUNIOR IN HIGH SCHOOL AND STAY MY GOAL IN LIFE IS TO BE A STATE DEMOGRAPHER?
MY GUESS IS NO.
ENLIGHTEN OUR VIEWERS IF YOU COULD.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
HELLO.
IT'S GOOD TO BE HERE.
I ACTUALLY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT DEMOGRAPHY WAS OR THAT I WAS INTERESTED IN IT UNTIL I WAS ALMOST 30 YEARS OLD.
FOR ME, IT WAS A LONG AND WINDING ROUTE TO GET TO DEMOGRAPHY.
I STARTED OUT JUST GENERALLY WANTING TO MAKE MYSELF USEFUL.
I DIDN'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THAT MEANT AS AN UNDERGRAD AT ST. OLIVE COLLEGE.
I STUDIED SOCIAL WORK, GOT OUT OF SCHOOL, FINISHED THAT DEGREE, AND I WASN'T SURE WHAT I WANTED TO DO NEXT, BUT I DECIDED FOR A WHILE TO MAKE COSTUMES FOR THEATERS.
SO I WENT TO MINNEAPOLIS TECHNICAL SCAL AND TOOK APPAREL DESIGN.
THEN I WAITED FOR A WHILE AND WENT BACK TO SCHOOL AT THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL AND WAS STUDYING POLICY, AND THAT'S ACTUALLY WHEN I WAS ALMOST 30 THAT I LEARNED THAT DEMOGRAPHICS WAS SUPER FASCINATING TO ME.
SO IT WAS SOMETHING THAT I WANTED TO PURSUE FURTHER AND WENT ON TO GET MY PH.D.
IN DEMOGRAPHY AND SOCIOLOGY.
THE REASON WHY I GOT INTERESTED IN DEMOGRAPHICS TO BEGIN WITH IT'S KIND OF AN ABSTRACT CONCEPT BUT I THINK IF I ILLUSTRATE IT WITH THE EXAMPLE THAT KIND OF HOOKED ME, YOU MIGHT KIND OF SEE IT FROM -- I HOPE YOU WILL SEE IT FROM MY POINT OF VIEW.
I WAS STRUCK WHEN I LEARNED THAT DEMOGRAPHICS COULD REALLY SHOW US THE LIMITS OF POSSIBILITY.
I KNOW THAT'S REALLY ABSTRACT.
TO PUT IT IN CONCRETE TERMS, I READ THIS PAPER WHEN I WAS IN GRADUATE SCHOOL AT THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL THAT WAS TALKING ABOUT MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE.
IT SAID IF WE LOOK BACK TO 1850, PEOPLE LIVED ON AVERAGE ABOUT 40 YEARS, AND THEY WERE MARRIED ON AVERAGE ABOUT 20 YEARS.
THE WAY THAT MARRIAGE ENDED AT THE TIME MOST LIKELY WAS WHEN ONE OF THE SPOUSES WOULD PASS AWAY.
FAST FORWARD TO 1970, 1980 WHEN THIS PAPER WAS WRITTEN, AND GUESS WHAT?
PEOPLE ARE STILL MARRIED ABOUT 20 YEARS, BUT THE MARRIAGES ARE ENDING NOW BECAUSE OF MORE LIKELY TO BE BECAUSE OF DIVORCE, BECAUSE NOW PEOPLE ARE LIVING CLOSE TO 70 TO 80 YEARS.
WHAT THIS LIFE EXPECTANCY, JUST THE SHIFT IN LIFE EXPECTANCY DOES IS REALLY KIND OF SHIFT THE WAY THAT WE LIVE TOGETHER IN FAMILIES, THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE CHILDREN, KIND OF THE INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION.
FOR ME, IT WAS REALLY A CLEAR EXAMPLE THAT WE GUESS ON DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS, UNDERSTAND OUR CURRENT SITUATION AND UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE.
ANYWAY, THAT'S WHY I LIKED IT.
THAT'S WHY I GOT INTO IT.
>> Barry: ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT DEMOGRAPHY AND HISTORIC DATA WITH REGARD TO SPECIFIC INDIVIDUALS, WITH REGARD TO INDIVIDUALS GENERALLY IS THERE ARE OFTEN MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT HOW THAT DATA -- WHAT THAT DATA SHOWS.
IT'S A STATISTIC THAT I HAD INTEREST IN.
YOU MENTIONED THE MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE RATE.
OFTEN SAID ABOUT HALF OF ALL MARRIAGES END IN DIVORCE BUT IN FACT THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY PREDICTING THAT ANY SPECIFIC MARRIAGE IS GOING TO -- HAS A 50% CHANCE OF ENDING IN DIVORCE.
IF YOU CONTROL OTHER FACTORS WITH SOME POPULATION SUBSETS THE CHANCES OF DIVORCE ARE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVALUATED IN OTHER WAYS GREATER THAN 50%, AND IT BECOMES, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, MUCH MORE COMPLICATED THAN THE SOUND BITES WOULD INDICATE.
>> THAT'S TRUE.
THAT'S TRUE FOR LIFE EXPECTANCY, TOO.
WE USE THAT NUMBER OF 80 RIGHT NOW.
THAT'S AVERAGE WHAT THE PERSON WOULD BE EXPECTED TO LIVE THE CURRENT MORTALITY RATES THAT ARE HERE TODAY, MUCH MORE COMPLICATED WHEN YOU START LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL LEVEL FACTORS FOR SURE.
>> AND ON THAT PARTICULAR ITEM, WE ARE GOING TO GET TO SOME SPECIFICS HERE, AND I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE REST OF STATE GOVERNMENT.
WE WILL GET TO THAT TOO IN A MINUTE.
WITH REGARD TO LIFE EXPECT SEANS ISSUES.
MY UNDERSTANDING, AND CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG, BECAUSE I'M NOT A DEMOGRAPHER.
I TRY TO STAY AWAY FROM ANYTHING THAT INVOLVES NUMBERS, BUT AS A PRACTICAL MATTER, IT'S MY UNDERSTANDING IF YOU CONTROL FOR INFANT MORTALITY, WHICH WAS A HUGE PROBLEM UNTIL RELATIVELY RECENTLY, THE ACTUAL RISE IN THE LIFE EXPECTANCY IS NOT AS MUCH AS YOU MIGHT OTHERWISE EXPECT.
AM I STATING THIS CORRECTLY OR DID I MANGLE THIS?
>> I THINK YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POINTS ALONG THE LIFE COURSE WHERE MORTALITY IS AT ITS HIGHEST.
WE DON'T THINK ABOUT IT VERY OFTEN BUT IT'S STILL TRUE TODAY THAT THE GREATEST RISK EVER FORETALT WAS AT THE BEGINNING OF LIFE AND MUCH WEALTH, AT THE VERY BEGINNING YEARS, FIRST YEAR OF LIFE.
THEN AGAIN AS YOU GET OLDER, YOU KNOW, GOING INTO YOUR 60s, 70s, 80s.
SO IF YOU JUMP OVER THAT PART THAT HAS THOSE HIGH MORTALITY RATES, IT LOWERS THE OVERALL AVERAGE, ABSOLUTELY.
>> Barry: I WILL PROBABLY COME BACK TO SOME OF THAT EXTRACT CAL WORK IN A MINUTE.
BUT LET'S TELL OUR VIEWERS A LITTLE BIT, THE OFFICE OF THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER IS A STATE OFFICE FUNDED BY THE LEGISLATURE, THE BUDGET THAT THE GOVERNOR SIGNS EVERY TWO YEARS.
WHO ARE YOUR CLIENTS, SO TO SPEAK?
WHO CALLS UP THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER AND SAYS I WANT TO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT X?
WHAT KIND OF DATA DO YOU PROVIDE?
>> SO ANYBODY CAN CALL THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER AND ASK FOR DATA AND TO THE EXTENT WE ARE ABLE TO, WE HAVE A HELP LINE THAT WE ARE ALWAYS ANSWERING.
WE ARE USUALLY ANSWERING QUESTIONS FROM PEOPLE, FROM STATE AGENCIES, FROM THE LEGISLATURE, MOSTLY FROM THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH BUT ALSO FROM LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, PLANNING AGENCIES, NONPROFITS, GRANT MAKERS, AND WE GET QUESTIONS FROM INDIVIDUALS, TOO, WHO JUST HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD OR ABOUT A WORK LOCATION OR SOMETHING.
IT REALLY VARIES CONSIDERABLY.
I WOULD SAY MOST OF THE WORK THAT WE ARE DOING, THOUGH, IS TO SUPPORT STATE AGENCIES, THE LEGISLATURE AND THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE AND CABINET.
WE ARE, AS YOU SAID, NOT APPOINTED.
WE ARE CIVIL SERVANTS, NONPARTISAN.
THERE'S ONLY FOUR OF US IN THE OFFICE AND THREE OF US ARE DEMOGRAPHERS, AND IT GIVES US A SENSE OF OUR CAPACITY.
WE ARE A SMALL BUT MIGHTY OFFICE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION IS OUR HOME AND SO I REPORT TO THE COMMISSIONER OF ADMINISTRATION WHO IS THEN APPOINTED BY THE GOVERNOR.
>> Barry: OF COURSE THERE'S A CONSTITUTIONAL REQUIREMENT THAT EVERY 10 YEARS THE NATION GOES THROUGH THE APPORTIONMENT PROCESS, WHICH IS IMPORTANT FOR IDENTIFYING WHICH STATES GAIN OR LOSE CONGRESSIONAL SEATS AND WHERE THOSE CONGRESSIONAL SEATS GO.
I GATHER YOUR OFFICE HAS SOME INVOLVEMENT IN THAT PROCESS AS WELL.
AM I CORRECT?
>> WE WERE VERY INVOLVED IN THE CENSUS AND IN THE COUNTING OF THE FOLKS, TO CREATE THE DATA THAT LED UP TO THE REDISTRICTING PROCESS.
I WAS INVOLVED IN LEGISLATIVE HEARINGS AROUND THE STATE.
THEY WERE VIRTUAL, BUT THEY WERE WITH AUDIENCES AROUND THE STATE TO TALK ABOUT HOW THE STATE HAD CHANGED OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS.
I DON'T DRAW ANY SPECIFIC LINES OR HELP WITH THAT, BUT I CERTAINLY PROVIDE THE DATA AND MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THE CHANGES THAT HAVE HAPPENED AND THAT THEY UNDERSTAND KIND OF HOW TO READ THE DATA AND KIND OF APPROPRIATE INTERPRETATIONS TO TAKE FROM IT.
>> Barry: BUT IN ORDER TO DRAW THOSE LINES, AND YOU CORRECTLY OBSERVED YOUR OFFICE IS NOT INVOLVED IN THAT, BUT IN ORDER TO DRAW THOSE LINES, THE LINE DRAWER, SO TO SPEAK NEED TO KNOW WHERE PEOPLE LIVE AND HOW MANY OF THEM THERE ARE.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
THERE COMES FROM THE CENSUS BUREAU RIGHT BEFORE THE REDISTRICTING PROCESS JUST AVALANCHE OF DATA.
SO WHAT WE DO IS TRY TO HELP PEOPLE SUMMARIZE WHERE THOSE GROWTH AREAS ARE.
WE HELP TRY TO EXPLAIN HOW THE COMPOSITION OF THE STATE HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST CENSUS SO THAT THEY CAN KIND OF FOCUS ON SOME OF THE DETAILS THAT THEY NEED TO DO TO DRAW THOSE LINES.
WE ARE REALLY SUMMARIZING THE LARGER CHANGES THAT HAVE HAPPENED OVER THE DECADE.
>> FOR THOSE OF YOU FURTHER INTERESTED IN THIS TOPIC, I WILL NOTE THAT THE LAST TWO REAPPORTIONMENTS WERE CONDUCTED UNDER COURT ORDERS BECAUSE THE ELECTED BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT WERE NOT ABLE TO REACH AN AGREEMENT, SPLIT CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATURE, GOVERNOR'S OFFICE AND SO FORTH, AND THAT RESULTS IN THE COURTS STEPPING IN AND HANDLING THIS ISSUE.
I DON'T BELIEVE THERE WAS ANY APPEAL IN EITHER OF THOSE LAST TWO REAPPORTIONMENTS.
LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE CENSUS, THOUGH.
CENSUS IS CONDUCTED EVERY 10 YEARS, AND AS I RECALL, THE CENSUS DATA FOR MINNESOTA WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENSUS DATA FOR YORK, AND THERE WAS PRESS COVERAGE THAT SAID MINNESOTA NEARLY LOST IN GROSS, AND YOUR OFFICE DOESN'T DRAW THE LINES, BUT IN GROSS, VERY CLOSE TO LOSING AN OFF SEAT.
CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF AN ACCURATE CENSUS AND MAYBE WHAT YOU KNOW ABOUT THAT 2020 CENSUS AND HOW THAT ALL WORKED OUT.
>> SURE.
OUR OFFICE BECAME VERY INVOLVED IN THE EDUCATION AROUND THE 2020 CENSUS LEADING UP TO THE ACTUAL COUNT.
WE STARTED EDUCATING CITIES AND COUNTIES AND OTHER STATE LEADERS FIVE YEARS BEFORE THE CENSUS OCCURRED TO START GETTING PEOPLE ORGANIZED AND UNDERSTANDING THAT THEY NEEDED TO BE DOING SOMETHING SO THAT PEOPLE WERE READY FOR THAT FORM AND UNDERSTOOD WHY IT WAS IMPORTANT BEFORE IT LANDED IN THEIR MAILBOXES.
SO A LOT OF WHAT WE DID ALL ALONG THE WAY WAS TO DESCRIBE JUST WHAT THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CENSUS IS.
ONE OF THE MAIN USES OF THE CENSUS THAT'S IN THE SIXTH LINE OF THE CONSTITUTION, OF COURSE, IS REAPPORTIONMENT, ALSO USED, AS WE SAID FOR STATE LEVEL REDISTRICTING.
YOU CAN'T HAVE FAIR DISTRICTS OR EQUAL DISTRICTS IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE LIVE THERE.
IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT THAT YOU GET AS GOOD OF A COUNT, AS COMPLETE OF A COUNT AS POSSIBLE.
THE DATA ARE ALSO USED TO PLAN WHERE BUSINESSES SHOULD GO.
PLENTY OF FOLKS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, LIKE, SAY, TARGET LOOKS AT CENSUS DATA TO DECIDE WHERE THEY ARE GOING TO PUT A STORE, WHERE WORKFORCE MIGHT BE, WHAT TYPES OF PRODUCTS ARE PUT ON THE STORE, AND IT'S ALSO USED BY -- FOR FUNDING TO DISTRIBUTE FEDERAL AND STATE FUNDS TO LOCAL COMMUNITIES AND THEN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.
WE LOOK AT IT TO UNDERSTAND HOW COMMUNITIES ARE CHANGING TO IMPLEMENT POLICIES OF THE LEGISLATURE IN THE WAY THAT THEY ARE INTENDED.
SO ALL KINDS OF USES, WHICH IS WHY WE GOT GOING EARLY TO MAKE SURE PEOPLE KNEW IT WAS AN IMPORTANT THING TO DO, TO TAKE THE CENSUS AND RESPOND TO THE CENSUS.
MINNESOTA LED THE NATION -- I'M VERY PROUD OF THIS, ALTHOUGH I DIDN'T HAVE EVERYTHING TO DO WITH IT -- LED THE NATION IN SELF RESPONSE.
75% OF MINNESOTA HOUSEHOLDS RESPONDED WITHOUT ADDITIONAL FOLLOW-UP FROM A CENSUS WORKER.
SO 75% OF MINNESOTANS GOT THAT FORM AND SAID SURE, I WILL FILL IT OUT.
THEY FILLED IT OUT, AND IT WAS DONE.
NATIONALLY THAT PERCENTAGE WAS ABOUT 67% IN OTHER STATES MUCH, MUCH LOWER RESPONSE RATES.
WHEN THE FINAL COUNT CAME BACK, AS YOU SAID, WE WERE WATCHING VERY CAREFULLY BECAUSE WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT LOSING ONE OF OUR CONGRESSIONAL SEATS, AND IT ENDED UP THAT WE HELD ON TO OUR EIGHTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, NOT CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT NO.
8, BUT RATHER THAN HAVING 7, WE HAVE 8 DISTRICTS.
AND THAT WAS BECAUSE OF 26 PEOPLE THAT WERE COUNTED IN MINNESOTA, HAD WE MISSED 26 PEOPLE THAT SEAT WOULD HAVE GONE TO NEW YORK STATE.
SO THAT WAS REALLY KIND OF A VERY GRATIFYING MOMENT AFTER YEARS AND YEARS OF HARD WORK ON THIS, BUT OF COURSE IT'S NOT THE ONLY PURPOSE OF THE CENSUS.
>> Barry: THAT'S CORRECT.
BUT IT CERTAINLY IS A HEADLINE GRABBING STORY -- WHAT'S THE TOTAL POPULATION NOW 5 MILLION PLUS?
>> 5.57 MILLION.
>> OUT OF 5.57 MILLION, 26 MADE A DIFFERENCE WHETHER YOU HAVE 7 OR 8 CONGRESSIONAL SEATS.
FILL IT OUT AND RETURN IT TO WHOEVER IS THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER, RIGHT?
>> TO THE CENSUS BUREAU, ABSOLUTELY FILL IT OUT.
>> Barry: LET'S TALK NOW ON A MORE GRANULAR LEVEL ABOUT THE STATUS OF THE DATA, WHAT IT SHOWS, AREAS OF CONCERN AND THIS OF COURSE LEADS TO WHY WE COLLECT SOME OF THIS DATA.
CAN YOU GIVE US AN OVERALL PICTURE OF THE POPULATION OF MINNESOTA IN TERMS OF ITS SIZE AND GROWTH RATE AND HOW THAT COMPARES TO, FOR EXAMPLE, PREVIOUS NEEDS.
>> SURE.
MINNESOTA GREW BY ABOUT 7%, 7.6% OVER THE LAST DECADE ABOUT 402,000 PEOPLE OVER 10 YEARS, AND THAT'S A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN WE WERE GROWING IN PREVIOUS DECADES.
WHAT HAPPENED IS OUR STATE HAS BECOME OLDER.
WE HAVE MORE PEOPLE IN THE OLDER AGE GROUPS.
WE ALSO ARE HAVING FEWER BABIES.
MIGRATION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE BIT, AND SO ALL OF THESE FACTORS TEND TO DEPRESS GROWTH A LITTLE BIT, ALTHOUGH I THINK THE BIGGEST FACTOR THAT PLAYS INTO A SLOWER GROWING STATE IS THE FACT THAT WE ARE AGING.
WHEN YOU HAVE A LARGER SHARE OF YOUR POPULATION THAT'S IN THE OLDER YEARS, THEY ARE TYPICALLY NOT HAVING CHILDREN.
THEY ARE TYPICALLY IN THOSE HIGH MORTALITY AGE GROUPS, SO IT'S MUCH HARDER TO GROW WHEN ON AVERAGE YOU ARE IN OLDER STATES.
SO THAT'S WHERE WE ARE TODAY.
WE ARE AGING AS A STATE.
GROWTH RATES ARE A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST, BUT REALLY IT'S KIND OF THE NATURAL PROGRESSION OF HAVING, YOU KNOW, SMALLER FAMILIES, FEWER BABIES, AND THIS KIND OF PLAYS OUT THIS WAY OVER TIME THAT YOU TEND TO HAVE OLDER POPULATIONS UNDER THOSE CONDITIONS.
>> Barry: LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE BIRTHED EARTH PROBLEM.
THAT'S A SHORTHAND WAY OF DESCRIBING MINNESOTA IS NOT THE ONLY STATE IN THE UNION THAT'S DEALING WITH DECLINING BIRTH RATES.
IF I UNDERSTAND THE MATH HERE, WE ARE IN DANGEROUS TERRITORY WHEN I TALK ABOUT MATH, BUT IF I UNDERSTAND YOU CORRECTLY, BASICALLY THE REPLACEMENT RATE IS ABOUT 2.1.
IF YOU ARE ABOVE 2.1, THE POPULATION IS CONTINUING TO GROW FROM ADDING BIRTHS.
IF IT'S LESS THAN 2.1, IT BEGINS TO DECREASE.
MAYBE YOU COULD TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT THOSE NUMBERS ARE, TO THE EXTENT WE KNOW THEM, RELATIVE TO MINNESOTA, AND PERHAPS BROADLY RECOGNIZING YOU ARE THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER, NOT THE UNITED STATES DEMOGRAPHER.
BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THE OVERALL DATA IF YOU HAVE THAT AS WELL.
>> SURE.
ABSOLUTELY.
WE HAVE SEEN THE BIRTH RATE FALL OVER TIME.
OBVIOUSLY THE HEIGHT OF BIRTHS WAS IN THE 1950s WHEN WE HAD THE BABY BOOM AFTER WORLD WAR II.
BIRTH RATES STABILIZE SOME AND THEY LINE AND WE HAVE SEEN AGAIN SINCE 1990 OR SO DECLINES IN BIRTH RATES.
THIS IS NOT JUST MINNESOTA ISSUE.
THIS IS ACROSS THE U.S., ACROSS PARTS OF EUROPE, MANY PARTS OF ASIA, ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD.
BIRTH RATES ARE DECLINING.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT KIND OF THE PREFERENCES THAT PEOPLE HAVE FOR FAMILIES, RIGHT NOW AND FAMILY SIZE, YOU KNOW, 2 TO 3 CHILDREN SEEMS ABOUT WHAT MANY FAMILIES HAVE.
OF COURSE SOME PEOPLE OPT FOR NO CHILDREN.
SOME PEOPLE HAVE ONE.
BUT TWO TO THREE TENDS TO BE WHERE MANY FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN FALL.
IF YOU THINK BACK GENERATION OR TWO, IT WAS MUCH MORE COMMON FOR FAMILIES TO BE LIVING ON FARMS, TO HAVE MUCH LARGER FAMILIES, YOU KNOW, SEVEN, EIGHT CHILDREN MAYBE WASN'T THAT UNUSUAL 50 YEARS AGO.
IF YOU THINK OF WHERE WE ARE TODAY, IT WOULD BE REALLY, REALLY UNUSUAL TO TURN AROUND FROM WHERE WE ARE HAVING ABOUT TWO CHILDREN TO HAVING FAMILIES OF SAY 7, 8, 9, 10.
THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THAT'S NOT WHERE WE ARE GOING.
WHAT IT LEADS TO EVENTUALLY IS SLOWER GROWTH.
IT LEADS TO A SMALLER CHILD POPULATION, AND AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING RIGHT NOW, IT LEADS TO SLOWER GROWING WORKFORCES, WHICH IS ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT MANY OF OUR EMPLOYERS NOW AND MANY OF OUR GOVERNMENTS ARE DEALING WITH.
>> Barry: LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE SLOWER GROWING POPULATION AS A RESULT OF DECLINING NUMBERS OF BIRTH IN AREAS THAT WE CAN SEE A DIRECT EFFECT.
FOR EXAMPLE, EDUCATION, AND I WOULD ASSUME YOU GET REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION FROM SCHOOL DISTRICTS AND THE LIKE ABOUT PROJECTIONS FOR POPULATION GROWTH.
WHAT CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT THAT?
WHAT AREAS OF THE STATE ARE NOT GROWING AND WHAT ARE WE LEARNING ABOUT RELATIVE TO INVESTMENTS IN EDUCATION FACILITIES AND THINGS LIKE THAT BASED ON THOSE DATA POINTS?
>> WELL, IT'S REALLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE YOU LIVE.
SO MOST OF OUR METROPOLITAN AREAS IN THE STATE OF MINNESOTA ARE GROWING, PARTICULARLY THE TWIN CITIES BUT ALSO MANY GREATER MINNESOTA LARGER METROS LIKE ROCHESTER, MANKATO, THE FAR GO MORE HEAD AREA.
WE HAVE SEEN A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF GROWTH IN THOSE METROPOLITAN AREAS IN THE LAST DECADE WHERE WE SEE POPULATION DECLINE AND PARTICULARLY VERY, VERY SMALL STUDENT POPULATIONS TENDS TO BE IN THE MORE RULE AREAS OF THE STATE, AREAS WHERE WE HAVE REALLY SMALL TOWNS THAT ARE SURROUNDED BY RURAL AREA AND THAT ARE NOT PART OF A LARGER METRO ECOSYSTEM.
SO FOR THOSE AREAS, THIS IS REALLY CAN BE A DIFFICULT TRANSITION, TO HAVE A SHRINKING STUDENT POPULATION MEANS YOU HAVE TO MAKE TOUGH DECISIONS ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH SCHOOLS, PARTICULARLY FACILITIES, THE BUILDINGS, WHEN DO YOU CLOSE THEM?
WHEN DO YOU CONSOLIDATE?
WHEN DO YOU SHARE SERVICES WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTIES?
THESE ARE ALL THE KINDS OF QUESTIONS THAT PEOPLE IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS OF OUR STATE NEED TO BE KIND OF CONSIDERING.
IT'S A VERY DIFFERENT PICTURE WHEN YOU LOOK AT MANY OF OUR SUBURBAN CITIES, SAY, IN THE TWIN CITIES, THE URBAN CENTERS, ROCHESTER, FOR EXAMPLE, AND YOU KNOW, JUST A LOT OF OUR LARGER CITIES CONTINUE TO GROW REALLY RAPIDLY, AND THE QUESTION THERE IS HOW MUCH DO WE NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE GROWTH AND BE SURE THAT WE ARE NOT OVER BUILDING, BUT WE ARE JUST KEEPING PACE WITH WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN THE COMING YEARS.
SO OUR OFFICE PRODUCES PROJECTIONS FOR THESE AREAS TO KIND OF HELP PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHERE THINGS ARE HEADED SO THEY CAN ANTICIPATE THAT GROWTH IN THEIR AREA, BUT BOY, IT'S REALLY DIFFICULT TO TELL WITHOUT LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT THE DATA OR LOOKING AT THE MAP TO KNOW JUST WHAT TYPE OF AN AREA YOU MIGHT BE IN.
IT'S VERY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE STATE.
>> MY FIRST INTRODUCTION TO THIS AREA OF CONCERN WAS WHEN STATE REPRESENTATIVE ROBERT MASS MADE AN APPEARANCE ON THIS PROGRAM, "YOUR LEGISLATORS", PROBABLY 15 YEARS AGO OR SOMETHING ON THAT ORDER, MAYBE LONGER AGO THAN THAT EVEN.
HE WAS POINTING OUT THAT I BELIEVE THERE WERE 20 COUNTS IN MINNESOTA THAT HE LOOKED AT WHERE THERE WERE FEWER PEOPLE LIVING IN THOSE COUNTIES TODAY THAN LIVED IN THOSE COUNTIES IN 1910.
THAT SEEMED TO ME TO BE A PRETTY STRIKING STATISTIC.
IS IT CONSISTENT TO THE DATA YOU HAVE AVAILABLE AND DO YOU HAVE SIMILAR DATA YOU ARE ABLE TO SHARE WITH US?
>> THAT SOUNDS CORRECT TO ME.
I DON'T HAVE THAT PARTICULAR SET OF STATISTICS IN MY MIND.
BUT THERE IS SOMETHING CALLED A PEAK POPULATION, AND MANY OF OUR COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY FOR MANY YEARS NOW.
AGAIN, IT TENDS TO BE THE MORE AGRICULTURAL AREAS, PARTICULARLY THOSE COUNTIES THAT ARE FULLY RURAL WITHOUT A LARGE TOWN OR WITHOUT A METROPOLITAN AREA OF WHICH THEY ARE A PART.
I WISH I COULD SHARE -- I WILL SHOW YOU ON MY WEBSITE.
THE GROWTH IS JUST SO UNEVEN ACROSS THE STATE, ABOUT 78% OF THE GROWTH THAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST DECADE OCCURRED IN JUST THE 7 COUNTIES OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO, SO MANY OF THE OTHER COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE METROPOLITAN AREA, IT WAS REALLY VERY, VERY DIFFERENT, DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE, WHETHER IT WAS GROWTH, WHETHER THERE WAS DECLINE BUT IT LARGELY COURSE IN THE CITY.
>> Barry: HE MADE HIS APPEARANCE ON OUR PROGRAM, AND IT LOOKED TO ME LIKE MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES WERE ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER AND IOWA BORDER THAT WAS SHOWING RELATIVELY LITTLE OR NO GROWTH OR ACTUALLY WAS POPULATION.
>> YEAH, SO MANY OF THE RURAL AGRICULTURAL COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THERE'S A FAIR SHARE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA, TOO, THAT DON'T HAVE KIND OF A DENSE POPULATION, DON'T HAVE A METRO PULL THAT CAN BE CHARACTERIZED THAT WAY AS WELL.
>> Barry: LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT -- YOU IDENTIFIED EARLIER THE WORKFORCE DYNAMIC HERE, WORKFORCE IMPLICATIONS FROM THIS CONVERSATION.
WHAT ARE THOSE IMPLICATIONS?
DO YOU HEAR FROM LARGE SCALE EMPLOYERS WHO ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS?
IS THIS SOMETHING THAT IS A COUNTY GOVERNMENT CONCERN, STATE GOVERNMENT CONCERN?
HOW DOES IT GET ON YOUR RADAR SCREEN?
WHAT DOES YOUR DATA SHOW?
>> YES, YES, YES AND YES, ALL OF THE ABOVE.
THERE WERE ALL KINDS OF FOLKS WORRIED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW.
SO WE MAKE PROJECTIONS OF THE WORKING AGE POPULATION.
WE MAKE PROJECTIONS OF THE PEOPLE LIKELY AVAILABLE TO WORK IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS, IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS, AND WHAT OUR PROJECTIONS SHOW IS THAT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT WE HAVE AVAILABLE TO WORK TODAY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT WE WILL HAVE AVAILABLE TO WORK IN 10 YEARS, IN 15 YEARS, BUT THERE JUST IS NOT GOING TO BE MUCH GROWTH, MAYBE A HAIR OF GROWTH, IF ANY IN THE WORKFORCE IN THE COMING YEARS.
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR DECADES EXPLOSION OF WORKERS.
WE DIDN'T EVEN KNOW IT.
WE JUST THOUGHT THAT WAS NORMAL, THAT WE WOULD SEE EVERY YEAR, YEAR AFTER YEAR AFTER YEAR TENS OF THOUSANDS OF MORE WORKERS.
THAT WAS JUST HOW WE EXPERIENCED OUR WORK LIVES.
BUT NOW AS THE BABY BOOMERS ARE REACHING RETIREMENT AGE, WE ARE LOSING THIS MASSIVE GENERATION TO RETIREMENT.
THE GROUP THAT'S COMING IN IS MUCH SMALLER BECAUSE OF THOSE LOWER BIRTH RATES.
SO REALLY THAT'S WHAT'S DRIVING THE SLOW DOWN IN GROWTH.
IT'S NOT UNIQUE TO MINNESOTA.
IT'S HAPPENING ACROSS THE U.S., ALTHOUGH IT'S A LITTLE BIT MORE SEVERE IN MINNESOTA, BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE THE MIGRATION BOTH INTERNATIONAL IMMIGRATION AND MIGRATION FROM OTHER STATES THAT SOMETIMES CAN SUPPLEMENT THAT SLOWER GROWTH.
SO WHAT'S HAPPENED IS IF WE ARE JUST GROWING FROM OUR OWN SET OF FAMILIES, OUR OWN COMMUNITIES, PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY LIVING HERE, IT GETS MUCH, MUCH HARDER TO GROW WITH THESE LOWER BIRTH RATES THAT DON'T HAVE THE SAME LABOR FORCE GROWTH AS WE HAVE HAD IN THE PAST AND IF WE DON'T HAVE KIND OF AN EXTRA BOOST FROM IMMIGRATION, IT JUST MAKES IT REALLY TOUGH FOR EMPLOYERS TO FILL THE JOBS THAT THEY NEED FILLED.
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE ABOUT 185,000 OPEN JOBS IN THE STATE OF MINNESOTA.
THAT'S FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, AND IT'S BEEN SOMEWHERE AROUND 200,000 JOB VACANCIES FOR ABOUT TWO YEARS WITH ONLY ABOUT 68,000 PEOPLE WHO ARE ACTIVELY LOOKING TO FILL THOSE JOBS.
WE HAVE GOT A SURPLUS IN THE STATE OF ABOUT 150 OR SO THOUSAND JOBS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS.
SO EMPLOYERS ARE WORRIED.
GOVERNMENTS ARE WORRIED.
ANYONE IN A HIRING POSITION IS WORRIED BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO GROW IN THE WAY THAT THEY WANT TO GROW.
THEY CAN'T FILL THIS FIRST JOB, WHICH MEANS THEY CAN'T FILL THAT NEXT JOB THAT THEY MIGHT WANT TO PLAN FOR POSTING.
BUT I WILL TELL YOU WHO ISN'T WORRIED ABOUT THIS, YOUNG PEOPLE, PEOPLE WHO ARE ENTERING THE WORKFORCE RIGHT NOW.
WHEN I SHARE THESE NUMBERS WITH THEM, THEY GET A GLIMMER IN THEIR EYE AND SAY THIS MAY NOT BE SO BAD FOR ME.
PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT HAD ACCESS TO THE SAME LEVEL OF TRAINING.
IN THE PAST THIS KIND OF OPENS UP OPPORTUNITIES, AND EMPLOYERS ARE MORE WILLING TO TRAIN ON-THE-JOB FOR SOME JOBS.
PEOPLE WHO GENERALLY HAVE BEEN MARGINALIZED FROM FULL AND PRODUCTIVE WORK, WHETHER IT'S OLDER WORKERS, WHETHER IT'S PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES, THERE'S REALLY BEEN A SHIFT AND KIND OF SLOW AWAKENING OF EMPLOYERS TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE ARE KIND OF ENTERING A NEW DEMOGRAPHIC PHASE WITH VERY, VERY LITTLE GROWTH IN THE WORKFORCE.
I CAN'T HEAR YOU.
I'M SORRY.
MAYBE EVERYONE ELSE CAN.
>> Barry: THE FAMOUS YOU NEED TO TAKE YOURSELF OFF MUTE.
YOU THINK A TELEVISION PROFESSIONAL WOULD KNOW NOT TO DO THAT.
>> PROBABLY ME TALKING TOO LONG.
>> Barry: THIS IS VERY INFORMATIVE.
THE QUESTION ABOUT SHORTAGE OF WORKERS, OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE SOME STATES GIVING THE GROWTH POPULATION, AND THAT DOESN'T EFFECT THEM OR AT LEAST EFFECTS THEM LESS, BUT IT SEEMS TO ME THIS PROBLEM IS NOT LIMITED TO MINNESOTA.
WHAT DOES THE LITERATURE SAY ABOUT WORKER SHORTAGES THROUGHOUT THE ECONOMY AND THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY.
CAN YOU PAINT A PICTURE FOR HOW WE FIT IN THAT FRAME OF SHORTAGES?
>> SURE.
I TAKE GENERALLY ECONOMISTS AND OTHERS ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS.
DEMOGRAPHERS LESS SO, BECAUSE WE UNDERSTAND IT AS A STRUCTURAL ISSUE OF SUPPLY.
WE ARE KIND OF TRACKING THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO MIGHT BE AVAILABLE TO WORK.
THERE'S NO IMAGINARY PEOPLE WHO CAN WORK.
IT'S NOT A MYSTERY TO US.
YOU MENTIONED TOM GILLISPIE.
HE TALKED ABOUT THIS 20 YEARS AGO.
HE GNAW THIS SHORTAGE WAS COMING.
I TALKED ABOUT IT 10 YEARS AGO WHEN I FIRST STARTED AND SAID LOOK.
LOOK WHAT HAPPENS IN 2015 OR SO.
WE STOPPED GROWING OUR WORKFORCE.
THIS ISN'T A BIG MYSTERY TO DEMOGRAPHERS, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE LITERATURE, THERE'S MUCH MORE CONFUSION ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING.
I THINK THE SHORTAGES STARTING OPENING UP THE VERY SAME TIME THAT WE HAD THE PANDEMIC.
THEY BECAME MUCH MORE -- THEY WERE STARTING TO KIND OF OPEN UP BEFORE THE PANDEMIC, BUT THERE WAS JUST SO MUCH DISRUPTION AT THAT TIME, SO MUCH UNEMPLOYMENT, SO MANY SHIFTS IN LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION THAT ONCE WE CAME OUT OF IT, A LOT OF ECONOMISTS READ THAT AS BEHAVIOR CHANGE DUE TO THE PANDEMIC.
PEOPLE HAVEN'T YET ENTERED THE WORKFORCE THE WAY THAT THEY HAD BEEN PARTICIPATING IN IT BEFORE THE PANDEMIC HIT.
OF COURSE WE ARE A FEW YEARS OUT FROM THERE NOW, AND I THINK THE REALIZATION IS STARTING TO SET IN THAT THIS IS MORE OF AN ISSUE OF THE RETIREMENTS OF THE BABY BOOMERS THAT IS CAUSING THIS SHIFT TO OPEN UP RIGHT NOW.
IF WE COMPARE MINNESOTA ACROSS OTHER STATES IN THE NATION, WE ACTUALLY HAVE ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE SHORTAGES OR IF WE LOOK AT THE RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS TO PEOPLE, WE ARE JUST AT THE VERY TOP OF THE LIST IN TERMS OF SHORTAGES.
THAT'S BECAUSE WE HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT HAS BEEN STRONG AND HAS CONTINUED TO GROW.
WE HAVE A LOT OF EMPLOYERS ACROSS THE STATE WHO WANT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE.
THEY WANT TO HIRE MORE PEOPLE, BUT THEY ARE BEING LIMITED BY THAT POPULATION SIZE.
OTHER STATES DON'T HAVE QUITE THE DEMAND.
THEN THERE'S A RANGE OF IT, EXPERIENCES IN TERMS OF THE SUPPLY OF WORKERS IN STATES.
BUT IT TENDS TO BE IN THE MIDWEST WHERE THE SUPPLY IS KIND OF THE SHORTEST BECAUSE WE DON'T TEND TO HAVE THE SAME MIGRATION AS OTHER PARTS OF THE U.S., LIKE THE WESTERN PART OF THE U.S., THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES, TEXAS AND SO FORTH.
>> Barry: WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE GROWTH ISSUES AND DEMOGRAPHY EXPERTS SAW THIS COMING, RECALLING SOMETHING THAT JOHN GILLISPIE SAID ON THIS PROGRAM, HE SET IT UP BY NOTING AN IMPORTANT SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLE HAS BEEN DISCOVERED.
HE WENT ON FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LIKE THIS AND DISCOVERED THAT PEOPLE BORN IN 1960 WILL TURN 65 IN 2025.
THAT, I THINK, IS WHAT YOU ARE REFERRING TO IN TERMS OF YOU AND THE OTHER PROFESSIONALS IN YOUR FIELD ARE NOT EXACTLY SHOCKED BY THESE DEVELOPMENTS.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
WE KNOW THAT THERE'S -- FOR EXAMPLE, WE HAVE GOT ABOUT 6 MORE YEARS OF RETIREMENTS OF THE BABY BOOM GENERATION.
WE KNOW THAT THIS WORKFORCE SHORTAGE IS NOT LIKELY TO RESOLVE ITSELF ANY TIME SOON OR AT LEAST WE ARE NOT GOING TO GROW INTO A RESOLUTION OF THESE SHORTAGES.
>> Barry: IN TERMS OF STEPS TO DEAL WITH THIS PROBLEM -- I REALIZE YOU ARE NOT IN THE PUBLIC POLICY BUSINESS, BUT FOR EXAMPLE, WAL-MART, TARGET, ET CETERA, THOSE KINDS OF PLACES MIGHT EMPLOY PEOPLE LATER IN LIFE.
WHAT KINDS OF STRATEGIES ARE EMPLOYERS ADOPTING TO DEAL WITH THIS PROBLEM?
AT LEAST BASED ON THE REPORTS YOU HEAR.
>> SO I TALKED TO A LOT OF PLAYERS.
I FEEL LIKE I HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SENSE OF THE TYPES OF POLICIES AND MEASURES THAT THEY ARE TAKING TO ADDRESS THIS.
PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT THAT WE SOMETIMES TEND TO SKIP OVER IS INCREASE IN WAGES, BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE CAN DO THAT, BUT THOSE WHO CAN HAVE, AND THOSE WHO CAN AND HAVEN'T YET, PROBABLY SHOULD.
BECAUSE THERE'S UPWARD PRESSURE ON WAGES, AND WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FUTURE.
I WOULDN'T SKIP OVER TO OTHER TYPES OF POLICIES BEFORE SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING COMPENSATION, AND MANY HAVE ALREADY DONE THAT.
THE OTHER TYPES OF POLICIES THAT EMPLOYERS ARE LOOKING AT, JUST ACROSS THE BOARD.
THEY WANT TO KNOW GENERALLY HOW THEY CAN INCLUDE MORE PEOPLE AND DO IT ON THE TERMS OF THE WORKERS, WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT EMPLOYERS MIGHT NOT -- IT MIGHT NOT BE THEIR FIRST GO TO THOUGHT, WHAT MY EMPLOYEES NEED, BUT THEY ARE AT A POINT NOW WHERE THEY KNOW THEY HAVE TO BE IN TUNE WITH WHAT THE NEEDS AND DESIRES ARE.
THINKING ABOUT, FOR EXAMPLE, OLDER WORKERS, MAYBE SOMEONE WILL STICK AROUND IF THEY CAN HAVE A WORK SCHEDULE WHERE THEY CAN WORK FROM HOME, WORK ON CONTRACT, AND MAYBE THEY WANT TO WORK ONE DAY A WEEK.
EMPLOYERS ARE MORE WILLING TO ENTERTAIN THAT KIND OF A WORK SITUATION NOW THAN THEY WERE 10 OR 15 YEARS AGO, BECAUSE THEY WANT TO KEEP THAT TALENT.
THEY WANT TO KEEP THAT EXPERTISE GOING FORWARD.
THINKING ABOUT DIFFERENT SHIFTS, DIFFERENT TYPES OF FLEXIBILITY.
THAT'S ANOTHER THING THAT EMPLOYERS HAVE REALLY DONE.
I WOULD SAY THAT THE EMPLOYERS WHO HAVE BEEN TRULY SUCCESSFUL IN KEEPING EMPLOYEES ARE THOSE WHO THINK ABOUT THE WORK THAT THEY HAVE ALONG A CAREER TRAJECTORY FOR THOSE FOLKS.
ARE THEY ABLE TO COME IN TO WORK, LEARN A SKILL AND CONTINUE TO GROW WITHIN THE COMPANY?
SOME EMPLOYERS HAVE DONE THINGS LIKE SHIFTED AROUND THEIR SCHEDULES, SO THEIR EMPLOYEES CAN GO TO TECHNICAL SCHOOL AND LEARN THE SKILLS THAT THEY NEED AND THEN COME BACK AND CONTINUE TO WORK AT HIGHER AND HIGHER LEVEL POSITIONS WITH MORE PAY.
WHEN EMPLOYEES SEE THERE'S A PATHWAY THERE FOR THEM, HIGHER EARNINGS, MORE RESPONSIBILITY, THOSE EMPLOYERS TEND TO BE THE ONES THAT HAVE LESS TROUBLE HOLDING ON TO FOLKS.
IT'S REALLY GOING TO DEPEND ON THE INDUSTRY YOU ARE IN AND THE OCCUPATIONS THAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE SOLUTIONS REALLY NEED TO BE CRAFTED INDIVIDUALLY TO THE SITUATION YOU ARE IN, BUT THESE ARE A FEW THAT ARE OUT THERE THAT HAVE BEEN WORKING FOR FOLKS.
>> Barry: DO YOU GET FEEDBACK FROM OLDER WORKERS ABOUT THE POSSIBLE INTERSECTION OF INCREASING THE NUMBER OF HOURS THEY WORK, INCOME THEY EARN AND RECEIVING SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS, FOR EXAMPLE?
IS THAT AN ISSUE THAT EMPLOYERS HAVE BROUGHT TO YOUR ATTENTION?
>> I KNOW IT'S COME UP.
THE ISSUE OF HEALTH INSURANCE HAS GENERALLY COME UP.
WHAT DO WE DO IN TERMS OF POLICY AROUND HEALTH INSURANCE FOR OLDER WORKERS?
THESE ARE ALL THINGS THAT THEY DON'T HAVE EASY SOLUTIONS, BUT I THINK WE ARE GETTING TO THE POINT, BOTH EMPLOYERS OF THE BUSINESS LEVEL, AT THE CORPORATE LEVEL OR INDIVIDUAL KIND OF FIRM LEVEL AND ALSO AT THE POLICY LEVEL THAT THESE ARE ISSUES THAT KIND OF NEED TO BE WORKED THROUGH.
>> Barry: IN TERMS OF THE WORK THAT YOU DO IN THE STATE DEMOGRAPHER'S OFFICE.
WE TALKED ABOUT THE WORKFORCE ISSUES AND WE MAY COME BACK TO THAT.
ARE THERE TRENDS OR PROBLEMS THAT YOU OBSERVED THAT YOU DIDN'T EXPECT OR THAT WEREN'T PREDICTED OR WEREN'T IN SOME MANNER A SURPRISE?
YOU KNOW, DEMOGRAPHICS MOVE REALLY SLOWLY, AND SO IT'S HARD TO SURPRISE DEMOGRAPHERS BECAUSE THE BIRTH TRENDS LIKE MORTALITY TRENDS, THESE THINGS REALLY UNFOLD VERY, VERY SLOWLY.
THEY TEND TO BE IN A SINGLE DIRECTION OVER TIME, SO THERE'S VERY FEW THINGS THAT SURPRISE ME WHEN I GET A NEW FRESH SET OF DATA TO LOOK AT.
I WOULD SAY THAT DISRUPTIONS THAT OCCUR DUE TO THE PANDEMIC, YOU KNOW, WE DON'T TYPICALLY SEE DISRUPTIONS LIKE THE PANDEMIC CAUSE TO ALL ASPECTS OF OUR LIFE AND TO ALL WORKPLACES, TO ALL GOVERNMENTS.
WE DON'T TYPICALLY SEE THAT LEVEL OF DISRUPTION.
WE DID SEE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN BIRTH PATTERNS.
WE SAW AN INCREASE IN MORTALITY.
WE SAW CHANGE IN MIGRATION PATTERNS THAT STILL TODAY REMAIN.
SO I GUESS, YOU KNOW, IT TAKES THAT LEVEL OF DISRUPTION, THAT LEVEL OF SHOCK TO REALLY EVEN SEE A SHIFT IN YEAR TO YEAR DEMOGRAPHICS.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT -- >> Barry: GO AHEAD.
>> IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, THAT'S WHAT MAKES DEMOGRAPHICS PRETTY USEFUL.
IT MAKES IT RELIABLE WHEN WE ARE TRYING TO MAKE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE.
THERE'S JUST NOT A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THESE NUMBERS YEAR TO YEAR.
SO IT'S CREATING FOR US THIS FOUNDATION, THIS STRUCTURE THAT WE KNOW WILL UNFOLD IN A PREDICTABLE WAY.
AS WE SAID, WE KNEW AROUND 2018 OR SO, WE WOULD START SEEING THE WORKFORCE SHORTAGES, AND THAT'S WHAT WE DID.
>> Barry: I KNOW THAT THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, FOR EXAMPLE, IN ILLINOIS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NEGATIVE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN MINNESOTA.
BUT I'M WONDERING ABOUT OUR SURROUNDING STATES, NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH DAKOTA, IOWA, WISCONSIN, MAYBE NEBRASKA, MICHIGAN.
WHAT ARE WE SEEING THERE.
IS IT CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN MINNESOTA?
DO WE LEARN FROM THE EXPERIENCES IN OTHER STATES?
>> SO THERE'S A WIDE VARIATION WHEN YOU LOOK AT MINNESOTA AND OUR IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORS.
YOU LOOK TO THE WEST OF US, LOOK TO THE DAKOTAS AND THEIR GROWTH RATES ARE VERY, VERY HIGH.
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA OUT PACED MINNESOTA BY FAR IN TERMS OF PERCENTAGE GROWTH.
THAT HAD TO DO WITH VERY STRONG AND SPECIFIC ECONOMIES IN THE CASE OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH NATURAL RESOURCES, AND SO THOSE TWO STATES REALLY STAND OUT REALLY ACROSS THE NATION, BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDWEST IN TERMS OF GROWTH.
MINNESOTA DID NOT GROW AS QUICKLY IN PERCENTAGE TERMS AS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA DID OVER THE LAST DECADE.
NORTH DAKOTA, EVEN THOUGH IT HAD THIS GROWTH RATE THAT WAS ABOUT 15% TO OUR 7.6%, SO ALMOST DOUBLE, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE ADDED TO NORTH DAKOTA RATHER THAN THE 400,000 WHO WERE ADDED TO MINNESOTA.
IN TERMS OF JUST PEOPLE ADDED, WE ARE VERY DIFFERENT SIZES.
KEEP THAT IN MIND IN TERMS OF GROWTH, TOO.
WHEN YOU THINK OF A PIERCE STATE, THAT'S MORE THE SAME SIZE OF US, WISCONSIN, THEIR GROWTH RATE WAS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT OURS WAS OVER THE LAST DECADE.
WE ARE REALLY IN A GOOD POSITION RELATIVE TO STATES, LIKE YOU SAID, ILLINOIS HAS LOST POPULATION OVER THE LAST DECADE.
MICHIGAN IS AT RISK OF THAT.
THERE WERE OTHER STATES THAT LOST POPULATION THIS LAST DECADE.
AS THE AGING TREND UNFOLDS ACROSS THE U.S., IF YOU DON'T HAVE PEOPLE MOVING IN FROM OTHER STATES, FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, THAT'S WHEN YOU START TO REALLY BECOME AT RISK FOR LOSING POPULATION AND THE KIND OF ISSUES THAT FOLLOW FROM POPULATION LOSS.
>> Barry: ARE THERE SPECIFIC POLICY CHOICES THAT OTHER STATES ARE MAKING TO FORESTALL THAT LOSS, OR IS THERE -- HAS THERE BEEN SOME EFFORT TO FIGURE OUT WHAT COULD BE DONE?
OBVIOUSLY POPULATION GROWTH WOULD BE PREFERABLE, BUT AT LEAST FORESTALL LOSSES BY INDIVIDUAL STATES?
>> WELL, THERE HAVE BEEN.
I SHOULD SAY FIRST THAT IMMIGRATION POLICY, OF COURSE, IS A FEDERAL POLICY, AND IT'S ONE THAT IMPACTS ALL OF US.
I THINK MORE PEOPLE, INCLUDING EMPLOYERS, HAVE GOTTEN INVOLVED IN THE CONVERSATION AROUND INTERNATIONAL IMMIGRATION REFORM.
I KNOW MINNESOTA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, FOR EXAMPLE, HAS BEEN SAYING HOW IMPORTANT IMMIGRANTS ARE TO MINNESOTA BUSINESSES AND HAS BEEN A VOCAL LEADER IN MAKING SURE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THAT IMMIGRATION IS GOING TO BE IMPORTANT.
IT'S IMPORTANT NOW, AND IT'S GOING TO BE IMPORTANT IN THE FUTURE.
THERE ARE THINGS THAT STATES HAVE ALSO DONE TO TRY TO ATTRACT PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY IN THE U.S. AND PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY IN THE REGION.
I THINK THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THIS COMES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA.
SO WHAT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY HAS DONE IS THAT IT HAS -- WHAT SOUTH DAKOTA HAS DONE IN PARTNERSHIP WITH SOUTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY IS TO CREATE A PROGRAM THAT INCENTIVIZES STAYING IN SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER STUDENTS GO TO SOUTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY.
SO THERE ARE BOTH STIPENDS AND THERE ARE TUITION REIMBURSEMENT POLICIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE WHO MOVE TO SOUTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY, STAY THERE AFTER SCHOOL AND CONTINUE WORKING FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS.
SO THERE ARE VERY SPECIFIC FINANCIAL POLICIES THAT CAN BE PUT INTO PLACE TO TRY TO ATTRACT AND KEEP WORKERS.
THE SOUTHWESTERN MAYORS, AS I UNDERSTAND ARE NOW KIND OF COMING TOGETHER -- SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA MAYORS.
THERE'S A GROUP OF REGIONAL MAYORS WHO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PUT TOGETHER A SIMILAR PROGRAM BECAUSE THEY ARE FEELING THE PULL OF THEIR OWN YOUNG PEOPLE OVER THE BORDER TO SOUTH DAKOTA STATE.
IT'S JUST ONE EXAMPLE OF THE TYPE OF THING THAT CAN BE DONE TO TRY TO KEEP AND ATTRACT YOUNG PEOPLE.
>> Barry: REPRESENTATIVE JEAN PELOWSKI ON THIS PROGRAM LATER THIS YEAR RAISED ISSUE AND NOTED THAT HIGHER INSTITUTIONS FROM ACROSS MINNESOTA, FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA TO TWO-YEAR COLLEGES, WERE SHOWING DECLINES IN APPLICATIONS FOR ENROLLMENT IN THE POSSIBLE PROJECTIONS FOR REDUCTIONS IN ENROLLMENT YEARS AHEAD.
I ASSUME THAT THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT YOUR OFFICE IS FINDING AS WELL.
>> IT IS.
AGAIN, IF WE LOOK AT JUST THE PEOPLE AVAILABLE, THE PEOPLE WHO TYPICALLY GO ON TO HIGHER ED, IT'S KIND OF A LOW DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF STUDENTS THAT WE WOULD EXPECT TO BE ENROLLED IN THE COMING YEARS.
SOME STATES HAVE SEEN LARGER DROP-OFFS WHAT THEY HAVE CALLED AN ENROLLMENT CLIFF SOMETIMES.
MINNESOTA IS CONTAINED OF A GENTLE SLOPE DOWNWARD TOWARDS FEWER AND FEWER HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES.
BUT MANY SCHOOLS HAVE SEEN A DROP-OFF IN ENROLLMENT THAT DOESN'T FIT THAT KIND OF DEMOGRAPHIC TREND.
THEY HAVE SEEN A MORE SEVERE DROP-OFF.
THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER CONTEXT THAT COME INTO PLAY HERE.
WHEN YOU HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT'S STRONG AND A SURPLUS OF JOBS, THAT'S A PRETTY BIG PULL FOR YOUNG PEOPLE AND OLDER PEOPLE, TOO, TO NOT GO INTO SCHOOL AND WAIT TO EARN WAGES UNTIL LATER.
IT'S A PRETTY BIG PULL FOR PEOPLE TO MOVE RIGHT INTO THE WORKFORCE AND THINK YOU KNOW WHAT?
I HAVE GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK NOW, AND I CAN MAKE MONEY NOW, AND I CAN GET A LITTLE BIT OF SECURITY.
I'M GOING TO MAKE THE INVESTMENT IN THE EDUCATION LATER.
SO IT'S PRETTY COMMON TO SEE ENROLLMENT RATES DROP WHEN YOU HAVE AN ECONOMIC CONTEXT LIKE WE HAVE NOW.
THEN THE OTHER KIND OF LONGER TERM ISSUES RELATED TO HIGHER ED ENROLLMENT HAVE TO DO WITH JUST WHO ARE OUR GRADUATES.
WE ARE SEEING MORE AND MORE DIVERSE GRADUATES.
WE ARE SEEING MORE PEOPLE WHO COME FROM LOW INCOME SITUATIONS, WHO MAY HAVE MORE BARRIERS TO PAYING FOR COLLEGE.
WE KNOW COLLEGE IS EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE.
SO I THINK WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT ALL THESE THINGS AS KIND OF IMPACTING THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE MOVING ON TO HIGHER ED.
IT'S A LITTLE BIT DEMOGRAPHICS BUT THERE'S A WHOLE LOT MORE GOING ON THERE, TOO.
>> LIKE A LOT OF THINGS IN LIFE, YOU GET INTO THE DETAILS, AND IT GETS MORE COMPLICATED.
LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT.
YOU RAISED THE ISSUE OF THE DIVERSITY OF THE POPULATION, AND MY GUESS IS THIS IS ALSO SOMETHING THAT DEMOGRAPHICS REVEALS.
CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT HOW THE DIVERSITY OF OUR POPULATION HAS CHANGED OVER THE COURSE OF PERHAPS THE LAST COUPLE CONSENSUS.
>> SURE.
AS OF 2010, ABOUT 17% OF THE STATE WERE PEOPLE OF COLOR OR INDIGENOUS PEOPLE OF COLOR, AND AS OF THE 2020 CENSUS, THAT'S ABOUT 24%.
SO ALMOST A QUARTER OF THE STATE FILLED UP THEIR CENSUS FORM AND IDENTIFIED THEMSELVES ASSETS AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK, ASIAN, HISPANIC OR LATINO, OR AMERICAN INDIAN OR A MIX OF THOSE.
WE WENT FROM ABOUT 17% TO 24% IN 10 YEARS.
THAT HAS BEEN A STEADY INCREASE SINCE ABOUT 1990 IS WHEN DIVERSITY REALLY PICKED UP.
WE EXPECT THAT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FUTURE.
THAT WILL BECOME MORE DIVERSE AS A STATE BECAUSE WE HAVE MORE DIVERSITY AMONG OUR YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE STATE THAN WE DO OF OUR OLDER POPULATION.
WHEN YOU HAVE GOT A YOUNG POPULATION THAT IS VERY DIVERSE, IT MEANS IN A FEW YEARS, YOU WILL HAVE A VERY DIVERSE PARENT POPULATION WHO WILL THEN HAVE MORE DIVERSE CHILDREN.
SO THERE'S THIS INTERNAL MOMENTUM TO GREATER DIVERSITY IN THE STATE OF MINNESOTA REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH INTERNATIONAL IMMIGRATION OR IMMIGRATION FROM OTHER STATES.
WE WILL BECOME MORE DIVERSE JUST BECAUSE OF THE PEOPLE WHO ARE LIVING HERE NOW AND HOW OLD THEY ARE.
>> Barry: ARE YOU SEEING, IN TERMS OF THE DATA THAT YOU COLLECT ON DIVERSITY, YOU KNOW, AS THEIR STATE BECOMES MORE DIVERSE, THERE'S MORE MARRIAGE, INTERMARRIAGE, AND THERE'S -- IT BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLICATED TO IDENTIFY ETHNIC GROUPS AND THINGS OF THAT SORT.
I'M JUST WONDERING IF YOU ARE FINDING SOME INCREASING RESISTANCE TO PEOPLE WILLING TO PROVIDE THAT INFORMATION OR DOES IT BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO REALLY SLICE AND DICE THAT INFORMATION TO PROVIDE MORE DATA?
IT DOES.
IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT IN A WAY THAT'S EASY TO SUMMARIZE.
WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE SOME DETAILED DATA THAT SHOWS HOW MANY PEOPLE BELONG TO MULTIPLE RACE GROUPS, TO MULTIPLE CULTURAL GROUPS.
THAT NUMBER REALLY JUMPED A LOT THIS DECADE.
IN FACT, IT WAS ONE OF THE LARGEST GROWING GROUPS OF PEOPLE WHO REPORTED THEY WERE MULTIRACIAL OR MULTICULTURAL.
IT HAS TO DO ABSOLUTELY WITH MORE INTERMARRIAGE ACROSS RACE GROUPS, INTERPARTNERSHIPS ACROSS RACE GROUPS WITH NORMS CHANGING AROUND PARTNERSHIP GENERALLY, BUT IT ALSO HAS TO DO WITH THE WAY THAT THE CENSUS BUREAU COLLECTED THE DATA.
THEY MAKE IT MUCH MORE EASIER TO REPORT THAT NOW.
ABSOLUTELY THAT'S PART OF THE FUTURE.
>> Barry: WE ARE RAPIDLY REACHING THE END OF OUR PROGRAM.
SUSAN BROWER, MINNESOTA STATE DEMOGRAPHER, WE LOOK FORWARD TO HAVING YOU BACK AGAIN TO DISCUSS ALL OF THESE TRENDS.
I WANT TO THANK OUR VIEWERS FOR JOINING US AND REMIND YOU WE WILL BE BACK WITH YOU NEXT WEEK.
I ALSO WANT TO REMIND YOU YOU CAN ON YOUR PBS STATIONS CHECK ON THE PROGRESS OF THE LEGISLATURE EACH EVENING.
WE THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TONIGHT.
WE LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU NEXT WEEK AND ALL THE WEEKS THAT FOLLOW.
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