1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,850 GWEN IFILL: The candidates descend on Iowa and on each other. 2 00:00:03,850 --> 00:00:07,160 Why no one is ceding the stage to Donald Trump. 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,300 Plus, from Cuba to Iran, celebration gives way to complexity. 4 00:00:11,300 --> 00:00:14,570 We explain how tonight on Washington Week 5 00:00:14,570 --> 00:00:17,580 IOWA VOTER: (From video.) If they're going to move on in the process they have to 6 00:00:17,580 --> 00:00:19,610 answer the questions that they get in Iowa. 7 00:00:19,610 --> 00:00:21,750 GWEN IFILL: Candidates on the upswing. 8 00:00:21,750 --> 00:00:24,220 CARLY FIORINA: (From video.) We have to challenge the status quo of Washington, 9 00:00:24,220 --> 00:00:27,960 something that the political class really hasn't been willing to do for a long time. 10 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:29,860 OHIO GOVERNOR JOHN KASICH (R): (From video.) Now, I happen to be a Republican, but the 11 00:00:29,860 --> 00:00:32,690 Republican Party is my vehicle and not my master. 12 00:00:32,690 --> 00:00:37,060 SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT): (From video.) This campaign is sending a message to the 13 00:00:37,060 --> 00:00:42,740 billionaire class: Yes, we have the guts to take you on. 14 00:00:42,740 --> 00:00:45,610 GWEN IFILL: Others struggle to be heard. 15 00:00:45,610 --> 00:00:47,830 LOUISIANA GOVERNOR BOBBY JINDAL (R): (From video.) Look, I know one way to ensure that 16 00:00:47,830 --> 00:00:51,450 I get more media coverage is to continue to talk about Donald Trump. 17 00:00:51,450 --> 00:00:54,580 GWEN IFILL: While frontrunners stake their claims. 18 00:00:54,580 --> 00:00:56,820 FORMER FLORIDA GOVERNOR JEB BUSH (R): (From video.) Who can seriously argue that 19 00:00:56,820 --> 00:01:01,420 America and our friends are safer today than in 2009, when the president and Secretary 20 00:01:01,420 --> 00:01:05,050 Clinton, the storied team of rivals, took office? 21 00:01:05,050 --> 00:01:07,530 FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) While what Donald Trump said 22 00:01:07,530 --> 00:01:12,440 about Megyn Kelly is outrageous, what the rest of the Republicans are saying about all 23 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:16,500 women is also outrageous. DONALD TRUMP: (From video.) I cherish women. 24 00:01:16,500 --> 00:01:21,940 And I will be great on women's health issues, believe me. 25 00:01:21,940 --> 00:01:26,750 GWEN IFILL: Plus, the White House tries to nail down its foreign policy victories, 26 00:01:26,750 --> 00:01:29,950 counting votes for the Iran deal. 27 00:01:29,950 --> 00:01:32,690 PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: (From video.) I'm not going to anticipate failure now, because 28 00:01:32,690 --> 00:01:37,390 I think we have the better argument. GWEN IFILL: And raising the flag, literally, in Cuba. 29 00:01:37,390 --> 00:01:42,020 SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY: (From video.) This is truly a memorable occasion, a day 30 00:01:42,020 --> 00:01:47,870 for pushing aside old barriers and exploring new possibilities. 31 00:01:47,870 --> 00:01:51,940 GWEN IFILL: But the details are indeed devilish. 32 00:01:51,940 --> 00:01:58,950 Covering the week, John Harwood, chief Washington correspondent for CNBC; Karen Tumulty, 33 00:01:58,950 --> 00:02:05,320 national political correspondent for The Washington Post; and Michael Crowley, senior 34 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,950 foreign affairs correspondent for POLITICO. 35 00:02:08,950 --> 00:02:16,060 ANNOUNCER: Award winning reporting and analysis. Covering history as it happens. 36 00:02:16,060 --> 00:02:22,470 Live from our nation's capital, this is Washington Week with Gwen Ifill. 37 00:02:22,470 --> 00:02:27,870 Once again, live from Washington, moderator Gwen Ifill. 38 00:02:27,870 --> 00:02:31,270 GWEN IFILL: Good evening. So where to begin? 39 00:02:31,270 --> 00:02:35,640 With the helicopter rides Donald Trump will be offering at the Iowa State Fair? With 40 00:02:35,640 --> 00:02:40,790 the deep-fried Snickers bar Jeb Bush reportedly ate there today? With Hillary Clinton's 41 00:02:40,790 --> 00:02:46,060 attempt to rise above the latest questions about her private email server? Or with John 42 00:02:46,060 --> 00:02:50,600 Kasich, who managed to take credit for balancing the federal budget and take a shot at 43 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,360 the Clintons all in one comment? 44 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,640 OHIO GOVERNOR JOHN KASICH (R): (From video.) Bill Clinton takes credit for the 45 00:02:55,640 --> 00:02:57,170 balanced budget. 46 00:02:57,170 --> 00:02:59,810 Bill Clinton's the kind of guy that when there's a mob coming to get him, he runs in 47 00:02:59,810 --> 00:03:01,810 front of them and claims it's a parade. 48 00:03:01,810 --> 00:03:05,510 GWEN IFILL: The truth is, if there's one thing we can take from these dog days of an 49 00:03:05,510 --> 00:03:10,490 August campaign, is that we have a long way to go before anything settles down. 50 00:03:10,490 --> 00:03:15,220 Here's a sample: Rand Paul going after Donald Trump, and Hillary Clinton going after 51 00:03:15,220 --> 00:03:17,390 everyone else. 52 00:03:17,390 --> 00:03:20,720 SENATOR RAND PAUL (R-KY): (From video.) So we have now people up there who say such 53 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:26,730 profound things as: You're stupid. You're fired. You're a pig. You look terrible. 54 00:03:26,730 --> 00:03:31,440 You only have half a brain. And then when you respond with an argument, 55 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,740 it's like you're stupid. (Laughter.) 56 00:03:34,740 --> 00:03:37,420 FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) They brag about slashing 57 00:03:37,420 --> 00:03:39,540 women's health care funding. 58 00:03:39,540 --> 00:03:45,390 They say they would force women who've been raped to carry their rapist's child. 59 00:03:45,390 --> 00:03:50,490 And we don't hear any of them supporting raising the minimum wage, paid leave for new 60 00:03:50,490 --> 00:03:56,560 parents, access to quality childcare, equal pay for women, or anything else that will 61 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:00,700 help to, you know, give women a chance to get ahead. 62 00:04:00,700 --> 00:04:05,630 GWEN IFILL: The polls are up and down. Most of the field is scrambling for money 63 00:04:05,630 --> 00:04:09,410 and attention. And the rest of us are left looking for clues. 64 00:04:09,410 --> 00:04:13,210 So who had the biggest ups and who had the biggest downs this week? 65 00:04:13,210 --> 00:04:16,790 Start with you, Karen. KAREN TUMULTY: Well, it depends on where you're looking. 66 00:04:16,790 --> 00:04:22,550 Donald Trump pulled out ahead in some polls in Iowa, which was very, very bad news for 67 00:04:22,550 --> 00:04:25,520 Scott Walker who'd been sitting on top of those polls. 68 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:31,510 But I think the more intriguing story, other than the continuing Donald Trump hurricane, 69 00:04:31,510 --> 00:04:38,330 are some of the people who did pretty well in that first debate who are now sort of 70 00:04:38,330 --> 00:04:42,550 beginning to see an opening, beginning to get a little bit of oxygen. 71 00:04:42,550 --> 00:04:47,380 We are seeing John Kasich suddenly moving some in New Hampshire. 72 00:04:47,380 --> 00:04:53,590 Carly Fiorina is - got - I don't know if you can call it that big of a bump when you're 73 00:04:53,590 --> 00:04:57,290 just talking about a few percentage points - GWEN IFILL: From 4 percent to 7 percent. 74 00:04:57,290 --> 00:05:00,090 KAREN TUMULTY: But it may be enough to get her on that stage, get her on the grownup 75 00:05:00,090 --> 00:05:02,230 stage for the next debate. 76 00:05:02,230 --> 00:05:06,900 Ben Carson, another one who I think people are just taking a second look at. 77 00:05:06,900 --> 00:05:11,300 And at this stage in the process, that's what you want to happen. 78 00:05:11,300 --> 00:05:13,970 GWEN IFILL: That counts for a lot. John, who did you see go up and down? 79 00:05:13,970 --> 00:05:17,170 JOHN HARWOOD: Well, I think - I think we're at the end of the beginning of the first 80 00:05:17,170 --> 00:05:19,200 phase of the campaign. 81 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,980 And this is the point, having had the first debate, having weathered the Trump surge and 82 00:05:23,980 --> 00:05:29,320 seeing that it's more persistent than many people had expected, everybody's tires are 83 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,960 starting to get some traction on the road. And I do - I agree with Karen. 84 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:37,270 Carly Fiorina, John Kasich are the two most obvious people who have moved up in the 85 00:05:37,270 --> 00:05:39,800 ranks of serious contenders. 86 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:45,050 There was a poll that was favorable for Marco Rubio in Iowa. 87 00:05:45,050 --> 00:05:49,840 Showed him in third place. Another one showed him way down. So I think it's a little bit 88 00:05:49,840 --> 00:05:54,420 difficult. The polls are of varying qualities and different methodologies. 89 00:05:54,420 --> 00:05:58,280 But I think the - you had some strong performances in the debate. 90 00:05:58,280 --> 00:06:03,420 And those people are beginning to realize how they have to engage with each other, and 91 00:06:03,420 --> 00:06:05,190 have to engage with Trump. 92 00:06:05,190 --> 00:06:08,450 KAREN TUMULTY: Oh, and by the way, there was some very tangible bad news out of the 93 00:06:08,450 --> 00:06:13,830 Rick Perry camp earlier, which is that he announced he was no longer paying his campaign 94 00:06:13,830 --> 00:06:17,300 staff. GWEN IFILL: His super PAC is paying them, but that's never a good sign. 95 00:06:17,300 --> 00:06:22,150 KAREN TUMULTY: It is not. And if he can't get on the grownup stage for the next 96 00:06:22,150 --> 00:06:28,420 debate, it's really beginning to be hard to imagine how he can even continue, even 97 00:06:28,420 --> 00:06:31,040 with a super PAC backing - JOHN HARWOOD: Forgot one loser. 98 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,550 It appears that Jim Gilmore will not be invited to the CNN debate. 99 00:06:34,550 --> 00:06:36,890 GWEN IFILL: At all, because he's not even at 1 percent. JOHN HARWOOD: That's right. 100 00:06:36,890 --> 00:06:39,890 GWEN IFILL: But let's be clear about what we say - what we mean when we say the grownup 101 00:06:39,890 --> 00:06:43,000 stage. We're talking about the candidates who score above 10 percent in the polls. 102 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,060 That's the same rule that's going to - KAREN TUMULTY: The top 10 candidates. 103 00:06:45,060 --> 00:06:48,440 GWEN IFILL: The top 10 candidates. That's still going to apply in the CNN. 104 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,730 Those are still going to be the rules, OK. 105 00:06:50,730 --> 00:06:54,040 JOHN HARWOOD: And you still will have the opportunity - remember, we had the kids table 106 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:59,970 debate in Cleveland, and that became a forum for Carly Fiorina, by dominating, to 107 00:06:59,970 --> 00:07:02,220 generate some traction for herself. GWEN IFILL: Right. 108 00:07:02,220 --> 00:07:05,020 JOHN HARWOOD: That opportunity will still be there at that second debate for somebody 109 00:07:05,020 --> 00:07:07,180 else, if they can seize it. 110 00:07:07,180 --> 00:07:10,050 GWEN IFILL: OK, we haven't talked about the big front runners, the people who were 111 00:07:10,050 --> 00:07:12,520 definitely the ups, or who at least in the past have been seen. 112 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:16,500 Let's start with Hillary Clinton, who today, Karen, gets some more bad news - yesterday 113 00:07:16,500 --> 00:07:21,370 gets more bad news, the day before more bad news about this email controversy that never 114 00:07:21,370 --> 00:07:25,540 seems to go away. How much - can we measure how much it's hurting her? 115 00:07:25,540 --> 00:07:27,750 It certainly isn't helping. 116 00:07:27,750 --> 00:07:31,200 KAREN TUMULTY: Well, the big news this week was that her attorney, David Kendall, had 117 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:37,480 turned over to the FBI - you never want to hear the FBI mentioned when you are running 118 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:42,990 for president - had turned over a thumb drive that had had copies of all of her emails on 119 00:07:42,990 --> 00:07:48,060 them. A few weeks ago, they were insisting they were not going to do that. 120 00:07:48,060 --> 00:07:54,040 What this says is that this investigation that began and may continue to be contained to 121 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:59,000 the question of is all the sensitive material that may have been in those emails 122 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,170 accounted for and under government control? 123 00:08:02,170 --> 00:08:07,350 But right now, what's making the Clinton people and the Clinton allies nervous is they 124 00:08:07,350 --> 00:08:12,650 don't know whether this is going to go into the larger and more troublesome question of 125 00:08:12,650 --> 00:08:18,490 whether Hillary Clinton herself, or people who worked for her, were not as careful as 126 00:08:18,490 --> 00:08:22,730 they should have been in handling sensitive information. And there 127 00:08:22,730 --> 00:08:28,710 is potentially a crime in there if that can be shown that this was done intentionally. 128 00:08:28,710 --> 00:08:33,830 GWEN IFILL: In their defense, what the Clinton people seem to be doing is establishing 129 00:08:33,830 --> 00:08:39,040 as much distance between the candidate herself and any controversial behavior, and also 130 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:44,220 making it as confusing as possible because maybe voters look at it and say, like 131 00:08:44,220 --> 00:08:47,820 Whitewater, I just can't keep track, but it makes me feel funny. 132 00:08:47,820 --> 00:08:53,700 JOHN HARWOOD: The Clintons' argument is that the classified information that may have 133 00:08:53,700 --> 00:08:59,940 appeared in her email, her private server email, was either information that has 134 00:08:59,940 --> 00:09:03,370 subsequently been determined to be classified - GWEN IFILL: It was not at the time. 135 00:09:03,370 --> 00:09:06,700 JOHN HARWOOD: Or that was not marked as classified, even if some of the information 136 00:09:06,700 --> 00:09:12,710 was. And so that she was, unwittingly perhaps, exchanging information with aides who 137 00:09:12,710 --> 00:09:17,920 were on their State dot-gov accounts, that may be problematic. 138 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,890 And so the FBI is trying to figure out, did Russia and China hack her system? 139 00:09:21,890 --> 00:09:24,760 There's no evidence that that happened, but some people wonder about it. 140 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:28,100 Just how vulnerable was that system? 141 00:09:28,100 --> 00:09:35,170 Whatever happens as a result of the investigation we know that her favorability has been 142 00:09:35,170 --> 00:09:38,970 hurt. She's underwater in the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. 143 00:09:38,970 --> 00:09:47,380 She was minus 11 points, 30 - I forget the exact numbers, but it was double digit on the 144 00:09:47,380 --> 00:09:51,760 negative side. But I do note historically, Bill Clinton was in double digit negative 145 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,220 territory before his 1992 convention, and turned it around. 146 00:09:55,220 --> 00:09:58,630 KAREN TUMULTY: And one thing that we maybe ought to stipulate here, at least our 147 00:09:58,630 --> 00:10:03,450 reporting at The Washington Post indicates that the most questionable material that 148 00:10:03,450 --> 00:10:09,410 investigators have come across is not primarily - it's nothing she was sending. 149 00:10:09,410 --> 00:10:14,770 It's things that people were sending to her or forwarding to her, in many cases things 150 00:10:14,770 --> 00:10:16,980 she didn't even respond to. 151 00:10:16,980 --> 00:10:21,410 JOHN HARWOOD: And in one case that was - the AP wrote about, the information that was 152 00:10:21,410 --> 00:10:25,260 in a top secret category, it was based on a news article. 153 00:10:25,260 --> 00:10:29,720 It was about a drone program that was technically classified, but had been written about 154 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,490 many times. GWEN IFILL: Right. 155 00:10:31,490 --> 00:10:34,160 Didn't help for John Kerry to say this week he suspects his own email is being - been 156 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,660 read by Russia and China. Thanks a lot for the help, Secretary Kerry. 157 00:10:37,660 --> 00:10:41,100 So let's talk about another leading person in the race, obviously, Donald Trump. 158 00:10:41,100 --> 00:10:45,080 Every week we say: This is the thing that's going to stop the rise of Donald Trump, or 159 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,340 at least is going to precipitate his fall. And he doesn't seem to fall. 160 00:10:48,340 --> 00:10:51,570 He doesn't rise, to be honest, he stays right about there. 161 00:10:51,570 --> 00:10:56,250 But right about there when there's 21 people in the race, is pretty much - pretty good. 162 00:10:56,250 --> 00:10:58,610 So where is he now? 163 00:10:58,610 --> 00:11:03,150 KAREN TUMULTY: He is - it looks like he is now the leading contender in Iowa. 164 00:11:03,150 --> 00:11:05,880 And he is going to be there. 165 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:11,370 And interestingly enough, it's not - two things can win the Iowa caucuses for you. 166 00:11:11,370 --> 00:11:16,700 It requires both of them. It requires a lot of enthusiasm. It requires a lot of organization. 167 00:11:16,700 --> 00:11:21,470 And Donald Trump does appear to be looking at the second half of that equation, too. 168 00:11:21,470 --> 00:11:25,940 He's got volunteers on the ground, apparently everywhere. 169 00:11:25,940 --> 00:11:32,720 And again, this is a suggestion that maybe this is more of a campaign than we thought it 170 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:34,620 was. GWEN IFILL: Than we had been thinking. 171 00:11:34,620 --> 00:11:37,560 Well, what about Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire? He seems to be surging. 172 00:11:37,560 --> 00:11:40,650 And of course, he's from a neighboring state, which the Clinton people were quick to 173 00:11:40,650 --> 00:11:44,370 point out. But those crowds we saw on the West Coast are not an aberration. 174 00:11:44,370 --> 00:11:47,090 JOHN HARWOOD: No. And it's extraordinary the crowds that he's drawing. 175 00:11:47,090 --> 00:11:50,360 The performance in that poll, can't speak to the reliability of the poll, but it's a 176 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,600 very robust result for him. 177 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:58,240 It did have Joe Biden in the poll itself getting 12 percent - points of the vote. 178 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:03,550 But, look, Bernie Sanders is at this moment in the campaign speaking to the aspiration 179 00:12:03,550 --> 00:12:08,820 of Democrats for a much more robust government role in smoothing out income inequality 180 00:12:08,820 --> 00:12:13,120 and dealing with other inequities in the society. And he's triggering a response. 181 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:18,240 I think in the case of Bernie Sanders, as in the case of Donald Trump, voters have a 182 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:22,400 different filter when it comes to actually voting and beginning the process of selecting 183 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:23,940 a president. 184 00:12:23,940 --> 00:12:27,440 They've got to look at those candidates and say, can I see that person behind the desk 185 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,440 in the Oval Office? 186 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:34,180 And I think when that test is applied, Donald Trump fades, and Bernie Sanders is not 187 00:12:34,180 --> 00:12:37,320 likely to defeat Hillary Clinton. GWEN IFILL: And let's talk about Jeb Bush. And I 188 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,820 want to bring you in - hi there, Michael; I didn't see you over there, very quietly watching. 189 00:12:40,820 --> 00:12:45,000 Jeb Bush gave a big foreign policy speech this week, in which he talked about Iraq and 190 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:50,230 about how the failure of the Obama administration, including Hillary Clinton, had been 191 00:12:50,230 --> 00:12:54,330 getting out of Iraq too soon. Why is he picking that fight? 192 00:12:54,330 --> 00:13:00,510 MICHAEL CROWLEY: Well, partly because the public's attention is so focused on ISIS. 193 00:13:00,510 --> 00:13:02,940 You kind of have to have something to say about ISIS. 194 00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:08,150 And he's really forced to confront Iraq in some way because there's just no sidestepping 195 00:13:08,150 --> 00:13:14,150 this. You know, and there is, you know, an intellectually honest argument to be made 196 00:13:14,150 --> 00:13:19,660 that says the Obama administration should have tried harder to reach some sort of 197 00:13:19,660 --> 00:13:23,230 agreement with the Iraqi government - the administration says it wasn't possible, but a 198 00:13:23,230 --> 00:13:26,800 lot of people who follow Iraq closely say that's debatable - to have left some kind of 199 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,700 troop presence in the country to make sure that it didn't fall apart. 200 00:13:30,700 --> 00:13:34,530 His argument was Iraq was somewhat stable, but it was fragile at that time. 201 00:13:34,530 --> 00:13:38,550 One problem with that argument, among others, is that Hillary Clinton was among the 202 00:13:38,550 --> 00:13:43,990 people who was trying to say to the president, don't pull out. Leave a robust troop force. 203 00:13:43,990 --> 00:13:48,920 Have trainers and advisers and special forces who can kind of zap al-Qaida types who pop 204 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,550 up. So that's one problem with the argument. 205 00:13:51,550 --> 00:13:54,720 I think the bigger problem is that, you know, having said that I think he does have to 206 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:59,700 address it, it's just a really hard subject for him to come out on top on because even if 207 00:13:59,700 --> 00:14:03,730 he's making an argument that you would have some expert opinion that says is valid, that 208 00:14:03,730 --> 00:14:07,840 Iraq was kind of stable and we could have stayed there, there are so many potholes - like 209 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,250 when he says mission was accomplished by 2009. It just sounds kind of ridiculous. It 210 00:14:12,250 --> 00:14:16,210 just - there's a quality of - GWEN IFILL: Well, it stirs up bad memories, you would think, 211 00:14:16,210 --> 00:14:19,020 for his family and for his supporters. 212 00:14:19,020 --> 00:14:21,290 MICHAEL CROWLEY: You just don't want someone named Bush talking about Iraq. 213 00:14:21,290 --> 00:14:24,720 KAREN TUMULTY: And in fact, he did the - what they call the soap box at the Iowa State 214 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,400 Fair today. 215 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:32,000 And those were a lot of the questions and comments he was getting from fairgoers was, 216 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,240 you know, what about your brother? What about the Iraq War? 217 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:42,240 So it's really hard for him to get past his name - his last name on any discussion of 218 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,780 Iraq. JOHN HARWOOD: Well, and the question of who broke it in the first place? 219 00:14:44,780 --> 00:14:48,350 GWEN IFILL: Well, and the question of - I mean, he's been doing this for a while. 220 00:14:48,350 --> 00:14:52,150 Why isn't the answer in the box by now? 221 00:14:52,150 --> 00:14:55,450 Why hasn't he come up with the answer that puts this to rest? 222 00:14:55,450 --> 00:14:58,860 MICHAEL CROWLEY: Because I think it's really hard to come up with that answer when you 223 00:14:58,860 --> 00:15:02,530 don't want to insult your brother, and you - GWEN IFILL: Your father. 224 00:15:02,530 --> 00:15:04,890 MICHAEL CROWLEY: And you're just trying to thread too many needles. 225 00:15:04,890 --> 00:15:07,900 And the solution he comes up with is kind of ridiculous, which is the sort of mistakes 226 00:15:07,900 --> 00:15:10,810 were made passive construct. And then he starts talking about 2009. 227 00:15:10,810 --> 00:15:14,010 Well, not everything was perfect before then, but what I want to talk about now is what 228 00:15:14,010 --> 00:15:16,240 Obama did. And that's just not - it's not going to wash. 229 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,210 GWEN IFILL: It's hard. We really love "mistakes were made." 230 00:15:18,210 --> 00:15:20,450 That's our favorite formulation in Washington. 231 00:15:20,450 --> 00:15:23,490 We're going to talk about - in the webcast after the program - a little bit about the 232 00:15:23,490 --> 00:15:26,320 trial balloons we saw go up and down this week, which was also fun. 233 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:27,990 Thank you both. 234 00:15:27,990 --> 00:15:30,790 While the people who would be president jockeyed for a position, the current 235 00:15:30,790 --> 00:15:33,420 administration did its own jockeying on Iran. 236 00:15:33,420 --> 00:15:38,300 It was nose counting, how much support can the president gather to allow him to win the 237 00:15:38,300 --> 00:15:41,400 day on his delicately negotiated nuclear agreement? 238 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:47,440 And on Cuba, will the new and historic opening to the isolated island nation stick? 239 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,680 SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY: (From video.) There have been too many 240 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:54,750 days of sacrifice and sorrow, too many decades of suspicion and fear. 241 00:15:54,750 --> 00:16:00,820 That is why I am heartened by the many on both sides of the straits, who whether because 242 00:16:00,820 --> 00:16:06,720 of family ties or a simple desire to replace anger with something more productive, have 243 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,470 endorsed this search for a better path. 244 00:16:10,470 --> 00:16:14,040 GWEN IFILL: And here's a taste of the pushback from Florida Senator, presidential 245 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,170 candidate, and Cuban-American Marco Rubio. 246 00:16:17,170 --> 00:16:19,840 SENATOR MARCO RUBIO (R-FL): (From video.) President Obama has rewarded 247 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:24,970 the Castro regime for its repressive tactics and its persistent, patient opposition 248 00:16:24,970 --> 00:16:27,310 to American interests. 249 00:16:27,310 --> 00:16:31,490 He has unilaterally given up on a half century worth of policies towards the Castro 250 00:16:31,490 --> 00:16:35,060 regime that was agreed upon by presidents of both parties. 251 00:16:35,060 --> 00:16:38,220 GWEN IFILL: So, Michael, how is the administration dealing with these two balancing 252 00:16:38,220 --> 00:16:41,600 acts? Both of them require congressional help. MICHAEL CROWLEY: Yeah. 253 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,530 Well, you know, step back for a minute and think about Obama's presidency in the last 254 00:16:45,530 --> 00:16:49,640 several years, where you've had a Republican Congress that just won't do anything that he 255 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,600 wants them to do. 256 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:56,570 Foreign policy, however, is a venue where he can take some initiative and get some 257 00:16:56,570 --> 00:17:01,280 things done, up to a point, without the Congress. But the Congress never goes away. 258 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:06,890 So on Cuba, for instance, you know, the economic embargo remains in place. 259 00:17:06,890 --> 00:17:11,230 It would require congressional authorization or a congressional vote to lift it. 260 00:17:11,230 --> 00:17:14,900 So what we have now is a normalization of diplomatic relations, a relaxation of some 261 00:17:14,900 --> 00:17:18,270 travel and trade regulations. 262 00:17:18,270 --> 00:17:24,670 But you know, fundamentally, the relationship is still kind of on ice on some level. 263 00:17:24,670 --> 00:17:27,480 And that's not going to change under a Republican Congress. 264 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:31,010 But, you know, as is the case with Iran - which we'll talk about in a second - the 265 00:17:31,010 --> 00:17:35,250 president's theory is: We're not getting anywhere by not dealing with them or talking to 266 00:17:35,250 --> 00:17:38,950 them. Turning a cold shoulder is not accomplishing anything. 267 00:17:38,950 --> 00:17:41,900 And even if the regime does a lot of things that we don't like - they're repressive, 268 00:17:41,900 --> 00:17:46,230 they're anti-democratic - actually, it's better if we start a line of dialogue and we 269 00:17:46,230 --> 00:17:49,190 start to melt the ice a little bit, and that will take on a life of its own that will 270 00:17:49,190 --> 00:17:51,500 have larger benefits down the road. 271 00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:56,000 So with Iran, it's different because he's not normalizing diplomatic relations or 272 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,170 anything like that. GWEN IFILL: Far from it. Far from it. 273 00:17:58,170 --> 00:18:00,450 MICHAEL CROWLEY: And the administration is very careful to say: This was a nuclear 274 00:18:00,450 --> 00:18:02,740 deal just to cap Iran's nuclear program. 275 00:18:02,740 --> 00:18:05,710 And if other things come of it, that's great, but that's not what the deal is about. 276 00:18:05,710 --> 00:18:08,090 But really they are hoping that other things will come of it. 277 00:18:08,090 --> 00:18:12,840 They are hoping that the beginning of this dialogue, showing the Iranian hardliners that 278 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,390 you can trust the United States, we can - you can do a deal with us and we're not going 279 00:18:16,390 --> 00:18:21,560 to stab you in the back and trick you, will be useful and you will also empower reformers 280 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:26,130 who said we will lift the economic sanctions, we'll take Iran into a more modern 281 00:18:26,130 --> 00:18:29,670 direction, you will empower the middle class of the country, and that will have 282 00:18:29,670 --> 00:18:33,840 beneficial results. But Congress is threatening to bring this deal down. 283 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:39,310 So what will likely happen is you will have a vote of disapproval carried easily by the 284 00:18:39,310 --> 00:18:43,390 Republican majorities in both houses. The president will veto that. 285 00:18:43,390 --> 00:18:47,320 And then there will be a veto override vote, and that's where the big drama will be. 286 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,530 It looks as though he has a firewall in the House. 287 00:18:51,530 --> 00:18:55,170 It's going to be close, but I think there's sort of what you would call cautious 288 00:18:55,170 --> 00:18:58,540 optimism right now that enough House members are holding firm. 289 00:18:58,540 --> 00:19:01,570 And you know, viewers will probably be familiar with the fact that New York Senator 290 00:19:01,570 --> 00:19:05,430 Chuck Schumer came out against the deal. That seemed quite dramatic, a big blow. 291 00:19:05,430 --> 00:19:08,240 You really haven't seen a lot of defections since Schumer. 292 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,350 That was not the beginning of a cascade. 293 00:19:10,350 --> 00:19:13,710 And I think there's some hope that that could have been the low point up till now and 294 00:19:13,710 --> 00:19:15,790 that the deal will survive. 295 00:19:15,790 --> 00:19:19,650 KAREN TUMULTY: And if this goes through, the Republican candidates are talking, you 296 00:19:19,650 --> 00:19:23,360 know, a number of them, that they could undo it, that they would just go back and 297 00:19:23,360 --> 00:19:26,930 reimpose sanctions and just make them tougher or whatever. 298 00:19:26,930 --> 00:19:33,930 Realistically speaking, if this deal goes through, what are the chances that the next 299 00:19:33,930 --> 00:19:38,770 president, whoever he or she may be, could actually undo it? 300 00:19:38,770 --> 00:19:42,910 MICHAEL CROWLEY: I think it's not realistic that a Republican president will come into 301 00:19:42,910 --> 00:19:46,240 office and immediately kind of pull the plug on the thing and bring it down. 302 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:51,260 There are different ways they could - there is a kind of passive-aggressive way to - you 303 00:19:51,260 --> 00:19:55,110 know, as someone described it to me, malign neglect; you could kind of let the deal fall 304 00:19:55,110 --> 00:19:59,890 apart. You could increase pressure on Iran to try to provoke a confrontation. 305 00:19:59,890 --> 00:20:05,230 You could try to crack down on Iran in other ways. 306 00:20:05,230 --> 00:20:10,640 But once the deal has been in place for what it would be - what would it be, 18 months, 307 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,630 and you will likely have investment, you will have economic activity, you will have a lot 308 00:20:14,630 --> 00:20:19,550 of corporate interests who do not want to get burnt, it's hard to see the scenario where 309 00:20:19,550 --> 00:20:23,250 the Republican president comes in, pulls the plug and it's over. 310 00:20:23,250 --> 00:20:27,320 So I think - and that's one of the great fears of the critics, is that the cake will be baked. 311 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,120 JOHN HARWOOD: I'd put the same question on Cuba because I think this is really 312 00:20:30,120 --> 00:20:34,420 interesting. And remember that Ronald Reagan campaigned hard against the 313 00:20:34,420 --> 00:20:37,830 Panama Canal Treaty. It passed in Jimmy Carter's administration. 314 00:20:37,830 --> 00:20:40,810 When he became president, left it alone, didn't do anything. 315 00:20:40,810 --> 00:20:46,000 In the debates weeks before the 1980 election, he said he wanted to junk the SALT II 316 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:50,850 treaty, which had not been ratified. He abided by the entire treaty through its expiration. 317 00:20:50,850 --> 00:20:55,590 Is anybody going to come in and say, you know what, I'm going to close that embassy in 318 00:20:55,590 --> 00:20:58,660 Havana and break diplomatic relations? Likely? Not likely? 319 00:20:58,660 --> 00:21:01,590 MICHAEL CROWLEY: I think it's not likely, particularly in the case of Cuba. 320 00:21:01,590 --> 00:21:05,520 You know, I think the chances are small that things are going to get worse, Cuba is 321 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,330 going to become belligerent, is going to challenge us in some way. I think - 322 00:21:08,330 --> 00:21:11,200 GWEN IFILL: Even though we have heard the Castro brothers make noises about reparations 323 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,430 this week, right? MICHAEL CROWLEY: Yes. 324 00:21:13,430 --> 00:21:17,630 I mean, and they wanted us to close the Guantanamo military base and, you know, we've 325 00:21:17,630 --> 00:21:20,640 annexed that land illegally. So they still have their gripes. 326 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:24,140 But I think that - particularly in the case of Cuba, I think that issue will fade. 327 00:21:24,140 --> 00:21:27,950 And you also have the politics of Cuba in Florida in particular, as you may know, are 328 00:21:27,950 --> 00:21:30,680 changing, and so I think the political dynamic has changed. 329 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,990 With Iran, you know, that's a more interesting case because I think you could see 330 00:21:33,990 --> 00:21:37,160 aggressive Iranian behavior in the years to come that could keep that a hot issue. 331 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,860 GWEN IFILL: OK. Well, thank you all very much. And you mentioned Jimmy Carter. 332 00:21:39,860 --> 00:21:43,000 We want to send our best wishes to his good health. 333 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,900 We have to go a little early again this week to give you a chance to support the public 334 00:21:46,900 --> 00:21:51,100 television stations who support us, but the conversation continues online on the 335 00:21:51,100 --> 00:21:55,710 Washington Week Webcast Extra, where we'll preview the week to come, trial balloons and 336 00:21:55,710 --> 00:22:01,120 all. You can find it later tonight and all week long at PBS.org/WashingtonWeek. 337 00:22:01,120 --> 00:22:05,320 Keep up with developments with me and Judy Woodruff on the PBS NewsHour every night, and 338 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:40,230 we'll see you here next week on Washington Week. Good night.