WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:03.850 align:start GWEN IFILL: The candidates descend on Iowa and on each other. 00:03.850 --> 00:07.160 align:start Why no one is ceding the stage to Donald Trump. 00:07.160 --> 00:11.300 align:start Plus, from Cuba to Iran, celebration gives way to complexity. 00:11.300 --> 00:14.570 align:start We explain how tonight on Washington Week 00:14.570 --> 00:17.580 align:start IOWA VOTER: (From video.) If they're going to move on in the process they have to 00:17.580 --> 00:19.610 align:start answer the questions that they get in Iowa. 00:19.610 --> 00:21.750 align:start GWEN IFILL: Candidates on the upswing. 00:21.750 --> 00:24.220 align:start CARLY FIORINA: (From video.) We have to challenge the status quo of Washington, 00:24.220 --> 00:27.960 align:start something that the political class really hasn't been willing to do for a long time. 00:27.960 --> 00:29.860 align:start OHIO GOVERNOR JOHN KASICH (R): (From video.) Now, I happen to be a Republican, but the 00:29.860 --> 00:32.690 align:start Republican Party is my vehicle and not my master. 00:32.690 --> 00:37.060 align:start SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT): (From video.) This campaign is sending a message to the 00:37.060 --> 00:42.740 align:start billionaire class: Yes, we have the guts to take you on. 00:42.740 --> 00:45.610 align:start GWEN IFILL: Others struggle to be heard. 00:45.610 --> 00:47.830 align:start LOUISIANA GOVERNOR BOBBY JINDAL (R): (From video.) Look, I know one way to ensure that 00:47.830 --> 00:51.450 align:start I get more media coverage is to continue to talk about Donald Trump. 00:51.450 --> 00:54.580 align:start GWEN IFILL: While frontrunners stake their claims. 00:54.580 --> 00:56.820 align:start FORMER FLORIDA GOVERNOR JEB BUSH (R): (From video.) Who can seriously argue that 00:56.820 --> 01:01.420 align:start America and our friends are safer today than in 2009, when the president and Secretary 01:01.420 --> 01:05.050 align:start Clinton, the storied team of rivals, took office? 01:05.050 --> 01:07.530 align:start FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) While what Donald Trump said 01:07.530 --> 01:12.440 align:start about Megyn Kelly is outrageous, what the rest of the Republicans are saying about all 01:12.440 --> 01:16.500 align:start women is also outrageous. DONALD TRUMP: (From video.) I cherish women. 01:16.500 --> 01:21.940 align:start And I will be great on women's health issues, believe me. 01:21.940 --> 01:26.750 align:start GWEN IFILL: Plus, the White House tries to nail down its foreign policy victories, 01:26.750 --> 01:29.950 align:start counting votes for the Iran deal. 01:29.950 --> 01:32.690 align:start PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: (From video.) I'm not going to anticipate failure now, because 01:32.690 --> 01:37.390 align:start I think we have the better argument. GWEN IFILL: And raising the flag, literally, in Cuba. 01:37.390 --> 01:42.020 align:start SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY: (From video.) This is truly a memorable occasion, a day 01:42.020 --> 01:47.870 align:start for pushing aside old barriers and exploring new possibilities. 01:47.870 --> 01:51.940 align:start GWEN IFILL: But the details are indeed devilish. 01:51.940 --> 01:58.950 align:start Covering the week, John Harwood, chief Washington correspondent for CNBC; Karen Tumulty, 01:58.950 --> 02:05.320 align:start national political correspondent for The Washington Post; and Michael Crowley, senior 02:05.320 --> 02:08.950 align:start foreign affairs correspondent for POLITICO. 02:08.950 --> 02:16.060 align:start ANNOUNCER: Award winning reporting and analysis. Covering history as it happens. 02:16.060 --> 02:22.470 align:start Live from our nation's capital, this is Washington Week with Gwen Ifill. 02:22.470 --> 02:27.870 align:start Once again, live from Washington, moderator Gwen Ifill. 02:27.870 --> 02:31.270 align:start GWEN IFILL: Good evening. So where to begin? 02:31.270 --> 02:35.640 align:start With the helicopter rides Donald Trump will be offering at the Iowa State Fair? With 02:35.640 --> 02:40.790 align:start the deep-fried Snickers bar Jeb Bush reportedly ate there today? With Hillary Clinton's 02:40.790 --> 02:46.060 align:start attempt to rise above the latest questions about her private email server? Or with John 02:46.060 --> 02:50.600 align:start Kasich, who managed to take credit for balancing the federal budget and take a shot at 02:50.600 --> 02:53.360 align:start the Clintons all in one comment? 02:53.360 --> 02:55.640 align:start OHIO GOVERNOR JOHN KASICH (R): (From video.) Bill Clinton takes credit for the 02:55.640 --> 02:57.170 align:start balanced budget. 02:57.170 --> 02:59.810 align:start Bill Clinton's the kind of guy that when there's a mob coming to get him, he runs in 02:59.810 --> 03:01.810 align:start front of them and claims it's a parade. 03:01.810 --> 03:05.510 align:start GWEN IFILL: The truth is, if there's one thing we can take from these dog days of an 03:05.510 --> 03:10.490 align:start August campaign, is that we have a long way to go before anything settles down. 03:10.490 --> 03:15.220 align:start Here's a sample: Rand Paul going after Donald Trump, and Hillary Clinton going after 03:15.220 --> 03:17.390 align:start everyone else. 03:17.390 --> 03:20.720 align:start SENATOR RAND PAUL (R-KY): (From video.) So we have now people up there who say such 03:20.720 --> 03:26.730 align:start profound things as: You're stupid. You're fired. You're a pig. You look terrible. 03:26.730 --> 03:31.440 align:start You only have half a brain. And then when you respond with an argument, 03:31.440 --> 03:34.740 align:start it's like you're stupid. (Laughter.) 03:34.740 --> 03:37.420 align:start FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) They brag about slashing 03:37.420 --> 03:39.540 align:start women's health care funding. 03:39.540 --> 03:45.390 align:start They say they would force women who've been raped to carry their rapist's child. 03:45.390 --> 03:50.490 align:start And we don't hear any of them supporting raising the minimum wage, paid leave for new 03:50.490 --> 03:56.560 align:start parents, access to quality childcare, equal pay for women, or anything else that will 03:56.560 --> 04:00.700 align:start help to, you know, give women a chance to get ahead. 04:00.700 --> 04:05.630 align:start GWEN IFILL: The polls are up and down. Most of the field is scrambling for money 04:05.630 --> 04:09.410 align:start and attention. And the rest of us are left looking for clues. 04:09.410 --> 04:13.210 align:start So who had the biggest ups and who had the biggest downs this week? 04:13.210 --> 04:16.790 align:start Start with you, Karen. KAREN TUMULTY: Well, it depends on where you're looking. 04:16.790 --> 04:22.550 align:start Donald Trump pulled out ahead in some polls in Iowa, which was very, very bad news for 04:22.550 --> 04:25.520 align:start Scott Walker who'd been sitting on top of those polls. 04:25.520 --> 04:31.510 align:start But I think the more intriguing story, other than the continuing Donald Trump hurricane, 04:31.510 --> 04:38.330 align:start are some of the people who did pretty well in that first debate who are now sort of 04:38.330 --> 04:42.550 align:start beginning to see an opening, beginning to get a little bit of oxygen. 04:42.550 --> 04:47.380 align:start We are seeing John Kasich suddenly moving some in New Hampshire. 04:47.380 --> 04:53.590 align:start Carly Fiorina is - got - I don't know if you can call it that big of a bump when you're 04:53.590 --> 04:57.290 align:start just talking about a few percentage points - GWEN IFILL: From 4 percent to 7 percent. 04:57.290 --> 05:00.090 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: But it may be enough to get her on that stage, get her on the grownup 05:00.090 --> 05:02.230 align:start stage for the next debate. 05:02.230 --> 05:06.900 align:start Ben Carson, another one who I think people are just taking a second look at. 05:06.900 --> 05:11.300 align:start And at this stage in the process, that's what you want to happen. 05:11.300 --> 05:13.970 align:start GWEN IFILL: That counts for a lot. John, who did you see go up and down? 05:13.970 --> 05:17.170 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: Well, I think - I think we're at the end of the beginning of the first 05:17.170 --> 05:19.200 align:start phase of the campaign. 05:19.200 --> 05:23.980 align:start And this is the point, having had the first debate, having weathered the Trump surge and 05:23.980 --> 05:29.320 align:start seeing that it's more persistent than many people had expected, everybody's tires are 05:29.320 --> 05:32.960 align:start starting to get some traction on the road. And I do - I agree with Karen. 05:32.960 --> 05:37.270 align:start Carly Fiorina, John Kasich are the two most obvious people who have moved up in the 05:37.270 --> 05:39.800 align:start ranks of serious contenders. 05:39.800 --> 05:45.050 align:start There was a poll that was favorable for Marco Rubio in Iowa. 05:45.050 --> 05:49.840 align:start Showed him in third place. Another one showed him way down. So I think it's a little bit 05:49.840 --> 05:54.420 align:start difficult. The polls are of varying qualities and different methodologies. 05:54.420 --> 05:58.280 align:start But I think the - you had some strong performances in the debate. 05:58.280 --> 06:03.420 align:start And those people are beginning to realize how they have to engage with each other, and 06:03.420 --> 06:05.190 align:start have to engage with Trump. 06:05.190 --> 06:08.450 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: Oh, and by the way, there was some very tangible bad news out of the 06:08.450 --> 06:13.830 align:start Rick Perry camp earlier, which is that he announced he was no longer paying his campaign 06:13.830 --> 06:17.300 align:start staff. GWEN IFILL: His super PAC is paying them, but that's never a good sign. 06:17.300 --> 06:22.150 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: It is not. And if he can't get on the grownup stage for the next 06:22.150 --> 06:28.420 align:start debate, it's really beginning to be hard to imagine how he can even continue, even 06:28.420 --> 06:31.040 align:start with a super PAC backing - JOHN HARWOOD: Forgot one loser. 06:31.040 --> 06:34.550 align:start It appears that Jim Gilmore will not be invited to the CNN debate. 06:34.550 --> 06:36.890 align:start GWEN IFILL: At all, because he's not even at 1 percent. JOHN HARWOOD: That's right. 06:36.890 --> 06:39.890 align:start GWEN IFILL: But let's be clear about what we say - what we mean when we say the grownup 06:39.890 --> 06:43.000 align:start stage. We're talking about the candidates who score above 10 percent in the polls. 06:43.000 --> 06:45.060 align:start That's the same rule that's going to - KAREN TUMULTY: The top 10 candidates. 06:45.060 --> 06:48.440 align:start GWEN IFILL: The top 10 candidates. That's still going to apply in the CNN. 06:48.440 --> 06:50.730 align:start Those are still going to be the rules, OK. 06:50.730 --> 06:54.040 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: And you still will have the opportunity - remember, we had the kids table 06:54.040 --> 06:59.970 align:start debate in Cleveland, and that became a forum for Carly Fiorina, by dominating, to 06:59.970 --> 07:02.220 align:start generate some traction for herself. GWEN IFILL: Right. 07:02.220 --> 07:05.020 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: That opportunity will still be there at that second debate for somebody 07:05.020 --> 07:07.180 align:start else, if they can seize it. 07:07.180 --> 07:10.050 align:start GWEN IFILL: OK, we haven't talked about the big front runners, the people who were 07:10.050 --> 07:12.520 align:start definitely the ups, or who at least in the past have been seen. 07:12.520 --> 07:16.500 align:start Let's start with Hillary Clinton, who today, Karen, gets some more bad news - yesterday 07:16.500 --> 07:21.370 align:start gets more bad news, the day before more bad news about this email controversy that never 07:21.370 --> 07:25.540 align:start seems to go away. How much - can we measure how much it's hurting her? 07:25.540 --> 07:27.750 align:start It certainly isn't helping. 07:27.750 --> 07:31.200 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: Well, the big news this week was that her attorney, David Kendall, had 07:31.200 --> 07:37.480 align:start turned over to the FBI - you never want to hear the FBI mentioned when you are running 07:37.480 --> 07:42.990 align:start for president - had turned over a thumb drive that had had copies of all of her emails on 07:42.990 --> 07:48.060 align:start them. A few weeks ago, they were insisting they were not going to do that. 07:48.060 --> 07:54.040 align:start What this says is that this investigation that began and may continue to be contained to 07:54.040 --> 07:59.000 align:start the question of is all the sensitive material that may have been in those emails 07:59.000 --> 08:02.170 align:start accounted for and under government control? 08:02.170 --> 08:07.350 align:start But right now, what's making the Clinton people and the Clinton allies nervous is they 08:07.350 --> 08:12.650 align:start don't know whether this is going to go into the larger and more troublesome question of 08:12.650 --> 08:18.490 align:start whether Hillary Clinton herself, or people who worked for her, were not as careful as 08:18.490 --> 08:22.730 align:start they should have been in handling sensitive information. And there 08:22.730 --> 08:28.710 align:start is potentially a crime in there if that can be shown that this was done intentionally. 08:28.710 --> 08:33.830 align:start GWEN IFILL: In their defense, what the Clinton people seem to be doing is establishing 08:33.830 --> 08:39.040 align:start as much distance between the candidate herself and any controversial behavior, and also 08:39.040 --> 08:44.220 align:start making it as confusing as possible because maybe voters look at it and say, like 08:44.220 --> 08:47.820 align:start Whitewater, I just can't keep track, but it makes me feel funny. 08:47.820 --> 08:53.700 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: The Clintons' argument is that the classified information that may have 08:53.700 --> 08:59.940 align:start appeared in her email, her private server email, was either information that has 08:59.940 --> 09:03.370 align:start subsequently been determined to be classified - GWEN IFILL: It was not at the time. 09:03.370 --> 09:06.700 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: Or that was not marked as classified, even if some of the information 09:06.700 --> 09:12.710 align:start was. And so that she was, unwittingly perhaps, exchanging information with aides who 09:12.710 --> 09:17.920 align:start were on their State dot-gov accounts, that may be problematic. 09:17.920 --> 09:21.890 align:start And so the FBI is trying to figure out, did Russia and China hack her system? 09:21.890 --> 09:24.760 align:start There's no evidence that that happened, but some people wonder about it. 09:24.760 --> 09:28.100 align:start Just how vulnerable was that system? 09:28.100 --> 09:35.170 align:start Whatever happens as a result of the investigation we know that her favorability has been 09:35.170 --> 09:38.970 align:start hurt. She's underwater in the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. 09:38.970 --> 09:47.380 align:start She was minus 11 points, 30 - I forget the exact numbers, but it was double digit on the 09:47.380 --> 09:51.760 align:start negative side. But I do note historically, Bill Clinton was in double digit negative 09:51.760 --> 09:55.220 align:start territory before his 1992 convention, and turned it around. 09:55.220 --> 09:58.630 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: And one thing that we maybe ought to stipulate here, at least our 09:58.630 --> 10:03.450 align:start reporting at The Washington Post indicates that the most questionable material that 10:03.450 --> 10:09.410 align:start investigators have come across is not primarily - it's nothing she was sending. 10:09.410 --> 10:14.770 align:start It's things that people were sending to her or forwarding to her, in many cases things 10:14.770 --> 10:16.980 align:start she didn't even respond to. 10:16.980 --> 10:21.410 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: And in one case that was - the AP wrote about, the information that was 10:21.410 --> 10:25.260 align:start in a top secret category, it was based on a news article. 10:25.260 --> 10:29.720 align:start It was about a drone program that was technically classified, but had been written about 10:29.720 --> 10:31.490 align:start many times. GWEN IFILL: Right. 10:31.490 --> 10:34.160 align:start Didn't help for John Kerry to say this week he suspects his own email is being - been 10:34.160 --> 10:37.660 align:start read by Russia and China. Thanks a lot for the help, Secretary Kerry. 10:37.660 --> 10:41.100 align:start So let's talk about another leading person in the race, obviously, Donald Trump. 10:41.100 --> 10:45.080 align:start Every week we say: This is the thing that's going to stop the rise of Donald Trump, or 10:45.080 --> 10:48.340 align:start at least is going to precipitate his fall. And he doesn't seem to fall. 10:48.340 --> 10:51.570 align:start He doesn't rise, to be honest, he stays right about there. 10:51.570 --> 10:56.250 align:start But right about there when there's 21 people in the race, is pretty much - pretty good. 10:56.250 --> 10:58.610 align:start So where is he now? 10:58.610 --> 11:03.150 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: He is - it looks like he is now the leading contender in Iowa. 11:03.150 --> 11:05.880 align:start And he is going to be there. 11:05.880 --> 11:11.370 align:start And interestingly enough, it's not - two things can win the Iowa caucuses for you. 11:11.370 --> 11:16.700 align:start It requires both of them. It requires a lot of enthusiasm. It requires a lot of organization. 11:16.700 --> 11:21.470 align:start And Donald Trump does appear to be looking at the second half of that equation, too. 11:21.470 --> 11:25.940 align:start He's got volunteers on the ground, apparently everywhere. 11:25.940 --> 11:32.720 align:start And again, this is a suggestion that maybe this is more of a campaign than we thought it 11:32.720 --> 11:34.620 align:start was. GWEN IFILL: Than we had been thinking. 11:34.620 --> 11:37.560 align:start Well, what about Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire? He seems to be surging. 11:37.560 --> 11:40.650 align:start And of course, he's from a neighboring state, which the Clinton people were quick to 11:40.650 --> 11:44.370 align:start point out. But those crowds we saw on the West Coast are not an aberration. 11:44.370 --> 11:47.090 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: No. And it's extraordinary the crowds that he's drawing. 11:47.090 --> 11:50.360 align:start The performance in that poll, can't speak to the reliability of the poll, but it's a 11:50.360 --> 11:52.600 align:start very robust result for him. 11:52.600 --> 11:58.240 align:start It did have Joe Biden in the poll itself getting 12 percent - points of the vote. 11:58.240 --> 12:03.550 align:start But, look, Bernie Sanders is at this moment in the campaign speaking to the aspiration 12:03.550 --> 12:08.820 align:start of Democrats for a much more robust government role in smoothing out income inequality 12:08.820 --> 12:13.120 align:start and dealing with other inequities in the society. And he's triggering a response. 12:13.120 --> 12:18.240 align:start I think in the case of Bernie Sanders, as in the case of Donald Trump, voters have a 12:18.240 --> 12:22.400 align:start different filter when it comes to actually voting and beginning the process of selecting 12:22.400 --> 12:23.940 align:start a president. 12:23.940 --> 12:27.440 align:start They've got to look at those candidates and say, can I see that person behind the desk 12:27.440 --> 12:29.440 align:start in the Oval Office? 12:29.440 --> 12:34.180 align:start And I think when that test is applied, Donald Trump fades, and Bernie Sanders is not 12:34.180 --> 12:37.320 align:start likely to defeat Hillary Clinton. GWEN IFILL: And let's talk about Jeb Bush. And I 12:37.320 --> 12:40.820 align:start want to bring you in - hi there, Michael; I didn't see you over there, very quietly watching. 12:40.820 --> 12:45.000 align:start Jeb Bush gave a big foreign policy speech this week, in which he talked about Iraq and 12:45.000 --> 12:50.230 align:start about how the failure of the Obama administration, including Hillary Clinton, had been 12:50.230 --> 12:54.330 align:start getting out of Iraq too soon. Why is he picking that fight? 12:54.330 --> 13:00.510 align:start MICHAEL CROWLEY: Well, partly because the public's attention is so focused on ISIS. 13:00.510 --> 13:02.940 align:start You kind of have to have something to say about ISIS. 13:02.940 --> 13:08.150 align:start And he's really forced to confront Iraq in some way because there's just no sidestepping 13:08.150 --> 13:14.150 align:start this. You know, and there is, you know, an intellectually honest argument to be made 13:14.150 --> 13:19.660 align:start that says the Obama administration should have tried harder to reach some sort of 13:19.660 --> 13:23.230 align:start agreement with the Iraqi government - the administration says it wasn't possible, but a 13:23.230 --> 13:26.800 align:start lot of people who follow Iraq closely say that's debatable - to have left some kind of 13:26.800 --> 13:30.700 align:start troop presence in the country to make sure that it didn't fall apart. 13:30.700 --> 13:34.530 align:start His argument was Iraq was somewhat stable, but it was fragile at that time. 13:34.530 --> 13:38.550 align:start One problem with that argument, among others, is that Hillary Clinton was among the 13:38.550 --> 13:43.990 align:start people who was trying to say to the president, don't pull out. Leave a robust troop force. 13:43.990 --> 13:48.920 align:start Have trainers and advisers and special forces who can kind of zap al-Qaida types who pop 13:48.920 --> 13:51.550 align:start up. So that's one problem with the argument. 13:51.550 --> 13:54.720 align:start I think the bigger problem is that, you know, having said that I think he does have to 13:54.720 --> 13:59.700 align:start address it, it's just a really hard subject for him to come out on top on because even if 13:59.700 --> 14:03.730 align:start he's making an argument that you would have some expert opinion that says is valid, that 14:03.730 --> 14:07.840 align:start Iraq was kind of stable and we could have stayed there, there are so many potholes - like 14:07.840 --> 14:12.250 align:start when he says mission was accomplished by 2009. It just sounds kind of ridiculous. It 14:12.250 --> 14:16.210 align:start just - there's a quality of - GWEN IFILL: Well, it stirs up bad memories, you would think, 14:16.210 --> 14:19.020 align:start for his family and for his supporters. 14:19.020 --> 14:21.290 align:start MICHAEL CROWLEY: You just don't want someone named Bush talking about Iraq. 14:21.290 --> 14:24.720 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: And in fact, he did the - what they call the soap box at the Iowa State 14:24.720 --> 14:26.400 align:start Fair today. 14:26.400 --> 14:32.000 align:start And those were a lot of the questions and comments he was getting from fairgoers was, 14:32.000 --> 14:35.240 align:start you know, what about your brother? What about the Iraq War? 14:35.240 --> 14:42.240 align:start So it's really hard for him to get past his name - his last name on any discussion of 14:42.240 --> 14:44.780 align:start Iraq. JOHN HARWOOD: Well, and the question of who broke it in the first place? 14:44.780 --> 14:48.350 align:start GWEN IFILL: Well, and the question of - I mean, he's been doing this for a while. 14:48.350 --> 14:52.150 align:start Why isn't the answer in the box by now? 14:52.150 --> 14:55.450 align:start Why hasn't he come up with the answer that puts this to rest? 14:55.450 --> 14:58.860 align:start MICHAEL CROWLEY: Because I think it's really hard to come up with that answer when you 14:58.860 --> 15:02.530 align:start don't want to insult your brother, and you - GWEN IFILL: Your father. 15:02.530 --> 15:04.890 align:start MICHAEL CROWLEY: And you're just trying to thread too many needles. 15:04.890 --> 15:07.900 align:start And the solution he comes up with is kind of ridiculous, which is the sort of mistakes 15:07.900 --> 15:10.810 align:start were made passive construct. And then he starts talking about 2009. 15:10.810 --> 15:14.010 align:start Well, not everything was perfect before then, but what I want to talk about now is what 15:14.010 --> 15:16.240 align:start Obama did. And that's just not - it's not going to wash. 15:16.240 --> 15:18.210 align:start GWEN IFILL: It's hard. We really love "mistakes were made." 15:18.210 --> 15:20.450 align:start That's our favorite formulation in Washington. 15:20.450 --> 15:23.490 align:start We're going to talk about - in the webcast after the program - a little bit about the 15:23.490 --> 15:26.320 align:start trial balloons we saw go up and down this week, which was also fun. 15:26.320 --> 15:27.990 align:start Thank you both. 15:27.990 --> 15:30.790 align:start While the people who would be president jockeyed for a position, the current 15:30.790 --> 15:33.420 align:start administration did its own jockeying on Iran. 15:33.420 --> 15:38.300 align:start It was nose counting, how much support can the president gather to allow him to win the 15:38.300 --> 15:41.400 align:start day on his delicately negotiated nuclear agreement? 15:41.400 --> 15:47.440 align:start And on Cuba, will the new and historic opening to the isolated island nation stick? 15:47.440 --> 15:49.680 align:start SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY: (From video.) There have been too many 15:49.680 --> 15:54.750 align:start days of sacrifice and sorrow, too many decades of suspicion and fear. 15:54.750 --> 16:00.820 align:start That is why I am heartened by the many on both sides of the straits, who whether because 16:00.820 --> 16:06.720 align:start of family ties or a simple desire to replace anger with something more productive, have 16:06.720 --> 16:10.470 align:start endorsed this search for a better path. 16:10.470 --> 16:14.040 align:start GWEN IFILL: And here's a taste of the pushback from Florida Senator, presidential 16:14.040 --> 16:17.170 align:start candidate, and Cuban-American Marco Rubio. 16:17.170 --> 16:19.840 align:start SENATOR MARCO RUBIO (R-FL): (From video.) President Obama has rewarded 16:19.840 --> 16:24.970 align:start the Castro regime for its repressive tactics and its persistent, patient opposition 16:24.970 --> 16:27.310 align:start to American interests. 16:27.310 --> 16:31.490 align:start He has unilaterally given up on a half century worth of policies towards the Castro 16:31.490 --> 16:35.060 align:start regime that was agreed upon by presidents of both parties. 16:35.060 --> 16:38.220 align:start GWEN IFILL: So, Michael, how is the administration dealing with these two balancing 16:38.220 --> 16:41.600 align:start acts? Both of them require congressional help. MICHAEL CROWLEY: Yeah. 16:41.600 --> 16:45.530 align:start Well, you know, step back for a minute and think about Obama's presidency in the last 16:45.530 --> 16:49.640 align:start several years, where you've had a Republican Congress that just won't do anything that he 16:49.640 --> 16:51.600 align:start wants them to do. 16:51.600 --> 16:56.570 align:start Foreign policy, however, is a venue where he can take some initiative and get some 16:56.570 --> 17:01.280 align:start things done, up to a point, without the Congress. But the Congress never goes away. 17:01.280 --> 17:06.890 align:start So on Cuba, for instance, you know, the economic embargo remains in place. 17:06.890 --> 17:11.230 align:start It would require congressional authorization or a congressional vote to lift it. 17:11.230 --> 17:14.900 align:start So what we have now is a normalization of diplomatic relations, a relaxation of some 17:14.900 --> 17:18.270 align:start travel and trade regulations. 17:18.270 --> 17:24.670 align:start But you know, fundamentally, the relationship is still kind of on ice on some level. 17:24.670 --> 17:27.480 align:start And that's not going to change under a Republican Congress. 17:27.480 --> 17:31.010 align:start But, you know, as is the case with Iran - which we'll talk about in a second - the 17:31.010 --> 17:35.250 align:start president's theory is: We're not getting anywhere by not dealing with them or talking to 17:35.250 --> 17:38.950 align:start them. Turning a cold shoulder is not accomplishing anything. 17:38.950 --> 17:41.900 align:start And even if the regime does a lot of things that we don't like - they're repressive, 17:41.900 --> 17:46.230 align:start they're anti-democratic - actually, it's better if we start a line of dialogue and we 17:46.230 --> 17:49.190 align:start start to melt the ice a little bit, and that will take on a life of its own that will 17:49.190 --> 17:51.500 align:start have larger benefits down the road. 17:51.500 --> 17:56.000 align:start So with Iran, it's different because he's not normalizing diplomatic relations or 17:56.000 --> 17:58.170 align:start anything like that. GWEN IFILL: Far from it. Far from it. 17:58.170 --> 18:00.450 align:start MICHAEL CROWLEY: And the administration is very careful to say: This was a nuclear 18:00.450 --> 18:02.740 align:start deal just to cap Iran's nuclear program. 18:02.740 --> 18:05.710 align:start And if other things come of it, that's great, but that's not what the deal is about. 18:05.710 --> 18:08.090 align:start But really they are hoping that other things will come of it. 18:08.090 --> 18:12.840 align:start They are hoping that the beginning of this dialogue, showing the Iranian hardliners that 18:12.840 --> 18:16.390 align:start you can trust the United States, we can - you can do a deal with us and we're not going 18:16.390 --> 18:21.560 align:start to stab you in the back and trick you, will be useful and you will also empower reformers 18:21.560 --> 18:26.130 align:start who said we will lift the economic sanctions, we'll take Iran into a more modern 18:26.130 --> 18:29.670 align:start direction, you will empower the middle class of the country, and that will have 18:29.670 --> 18:33.840 align:start beneficial results. But Congress is threatening to bring this deal down. 18:33.840 --> 18:39.310 align:start So what will likely happen is you will have a vote of disapproval carried easily by the 18:39.310 --> 18:43.390 align:start Republican majorities in both houses. The president will veto that. 18:43.390 --> 18:47.320 align:start And then there will be a veto override vote, and that's where the big drama will be. 18:47.320 --> 18:51.530 align:start It looks as though he has a firewall in the House. 18:51.530 --> 18:55.170 align:start It's going to be close, but I think there's sort of what you would call cautious 18:55.170 --> 18:58.540 align:start optimism right now that enough House members are holding firm. 18:58.540 --> 19:01.570 align:start And you know, viewers will probably be familiar with the fact that New York Senator 19:01.570 --> 19:05.430 align:start Chuck Schumer came out against the deal. That seemed quite dramatic, a big blow. 19:05.430 --> 19:08.240 align:start You really haven't seen a lot of defections since Schumer. 19:08.240 --> 19:10.350 align:start That was not the beginning of a cascade. 19:10.350 --> 19:13.710 align:start And I think there's some hope that that could have been the low point up till now and 19:13.710 --> 19:15.790 align:start that the deal will survive. 19:15.790 --> 19:19.650 align:start KAREN TUMULTY: And if this goes through, the Republican candidates are talking, you 19:19.650 --> 19:23.360 align:start know, a number of them, that they could undo it, that they would just go back and 19:23.360 --> 19:26.930 align:start reimpose sanctions and just make them tougher or whatever. 19:26.930 --> 19:33.930 align:start Realistically speaking, if this deal goes through, what are the chances that the next 19:33.930 --> 19:38.770 align:start president, whoever he or she may be, could actually undo it? 19:38.770 --> 19:42.910 align:start MICHAEL CROWLEY: I think it's not realistic that a Republican president will come into 19:42.910 --> 19:46.240 align:start office and immediately kind of pull the plug on the thing and bring it down. 19:46.240 --> 19:51.260 align:start There are different ways they could - there is a kind of passive-aggressive way to - you 19:51.260 --> 19:55.110 align:start know, as someone described it to me, malign neglect; you could kind of let the deal fall 19:55.110 --> 19:59.890 align:start apart. You could increase pressure on Iran to try to provoke a confrontation. 19:59.890 --> 20:05.230 align:start You could try to crack down on Iran in other ways. 20:05.230 --> 20:10.640 align:start But once the deal has been in place for what it would be - what would it be, 18 months, 20:10.640 --> 20:14.630 align:start and you will likely have investment, you will have economic activity, you will have a lot 20:14.630 --> 20:19.550 align:start of corporate interests who do not want to get burnt, it's hard to see the scenario where 20:19.550 --> 20:23.250 align:start the Republican president comes in, pulls the plug and it's over. 20:23.250 --> 20:27.320 align:start So I think - and that's one of the great fears of the critics, is that the cake will be baked. 20:27.320 --> 20:30.120 align:start JOHN HARWOOD: I'd put the same question on Cuba because I think this is really 20:30.120 --> 20:34.420 align:start interesting. And remember that Ronald Reagan campaigned hard against the 20:34.420 --> 20:37.830 align:start Panama Canal Treaty. It passed in Jimmy Carter's administration. 20:37.830 --> 20:40.810 align:start When he became president, left it alone, didn't do anything. 20:40.810 --> 20:46.000 align:start In the debates weeks before the 1980 election, he said he wanted to junk the SALT II 20:46.000 --> 20:50.850 align:start treaty, which had not been ratified. He abided by the entire treaty through its expiration. 20:50.850 --> 20:55.590 align:start Is anybody going to come in and say, you know what, I'm going to close that embassy in 20:55.590 --> 20:58.660 align:start Havana and break diplomatic relations? Likely? Not likely? 20:58.660 --> 21:01.590 align:start MICHAEL CROWLEY: I think it's not likely, particularly in the case of Cuba. 21:01.590 --> 21:05.520 align:start You know, I think the chances are small that things are going to get worse, Cuba is 21:05.520 --> 21:08.330 align:start going to become belligerent, is going to challenge us in some way. I think - 21:08.330 --> 21:11.200 align:start GWEN IFILL: Even though we have heard the Castro brothers make noises about reparations 21:11.200 --> 21:13.430 align:start this week, right? MICHAEL CROWLEY: Yes. 21:13.430 --> 21:17.630 align:start I mean, and they wanted us to close the Guantanamo military base and, you know, we've 21:17.630 --> 21:20.640 align:start annexed that land illegally. So they still have their gripes. 21:20.640 --> 21:24.140 align:start But I think that - particularly in the case of Cuba, I think that issue will fade. 21:24.140 --> 21:27.950 align:start And you also have the politics of Cuba in Florida in particular, as you may know, are 21:27.950 --> 21:30.680 align:start changing, and so I think the political dynamic has changed. 21:30.680 --> 21:33.990 align:start With Iran, you know, that's a more interesting case because I think you could see 21:33.990 --> 21:37.160 align:start aggressive Iranian behavior in the years to come that could keep that a hot issue. 21:37.160 --> 21:39.860 align:start GWEN IFILL: OK. Well, thank you all very much. And you mentioned Jimmy Carter. 21:39.860 --> 21:43.000 align:start We want to send our best wishes to his good health. 21:43.000 --> 21:46.900 align:start We have to go a little early again this week to give you a chance to support the public 21:46.900 --> 21:51.100 align:start television stations who support us, but the conversation continues online on the 21:51.100 --> 21:55.710 align:start Washington Week Webcast Extra, where we'll preview the week to come, trial balloons and 21:55.710 --> 22:01.120 align:start all. You can find it later tonight and all week long at PBS.org/WashingtonWeek. 22:01.120 --> 22:05.320 align:start Keep up with developments with me and Judy Woodruff on the PBS NewsHour every night, and 22:05.320 --> 22:40.230 align:start we'll see you here next week on Washington Week. Good night.