1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,450 GWEN IFILL: What a difference a week makes for Hillary Clinton, for Paul Ryan, for Joe 2 00:00:05,450 --> 00:00:09,700 Biden, and for Donald Trump and Ben Carson. And they're all connected. 3 00:00:09,700 --> 00:00:13,230 We explain how tonight on Washington Week. 4 00:00:13,230 --> 00:00:15,870 FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) I had a pretty long day 5 00:00:15,870 --> 00:00:19,140 yesterday. (Cheers, applause.) It's been quite week, hasn't it? 6 00:00:19,140 --> 00:00:23,470 GWEN IFILL: And she's had a pretty long summer, but the fall is looking brighter. 7 00:00:23,470 --> 00:00:27,820 Just this week Joe Biden decided not to challenge her. 8 00:00:27,820 --> 00:00:30,450 VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH BIDEN: (From video.) I believe we're out of time, the time 9 00:00:30,450 --> 00:00:34,570 necessary to mount a winning campaign for the nomination. 10 00:00:34,570 --> 00:00:40,490 GWEN IFILL: Two lesser-known challengers dropped out, and Clinton emerged undamaged 11 00:00:40,490 --> 00:00:46,520 from an 11-hour congressional hearing on the Benghazi tragedy as Republicans pounced. 12 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,440 REPRESENTATIVE TREY GOWDY (R-SC): (From video.) Madam Secretary, not a single member 13 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:54,130 of this committee signed up to investigate you or your email. 14 00:00:54,130 --> 00:00:58,190 REPRESENTATIVE SUSAN BROOKS (R-IN): (From video.) There are 67 emails in this pile in 15 00:00:58,190 --> 00:01:03,100 2012, and I'm troubled by what I see here. GWEN IFILL: And Democrats defended. 16 00:01:03,100 --> 00:01:05,920 REPRESENTATIVE ELIJAH CUMMINGS (D-MD): (From video.) Do we want to badger you over and 17 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,010 over again until you get tired, until we do get the "gotcha" moment that he's talking 18 00:01:09,010 --> 00:01:14,160 about? We're better than that. GWEN IFILL: Clinton's face told the story. 19 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:19,870 Who else had a good week? Paul Ryan, who forced Republican hardliners to 20 00:01:19,870 --> 00:01:24,170 back down and make him speaker of the House on his terms. 21 00:01:24,170 --> 00:01:27,210 REPRESENTATIVE PAUL RYAN (R-WI): (From video.) I came to the conclusion that this is a 22 00:01:27,210 --> 00:01:31,100 very dire moment not just for Congress, not just for the Republican Party, but for our 23 00:01:31,100 --> 00:01:36,130 country. GWEN IFILL: While Ben Carson and Donald Trump are redefining the Republican 24 00:01:36,130 --> 00:01:38,220 presidential race. 25 00:01:38,220 --> 00:01:42,080 DONALD TRUMP: (From video.) The Wall Street Journal/NBC just came out with a new poll, 26 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:48,420 and the headline is "Trump on top, highest points he's gotten so far." 27 00:01:48,420 --> 00:01:53,190 GWEN IFILL: Covering the week, Josh Gerstein, senior White House correspondent for 28 00:01:53,190 --> 00:01:59,080 POLITICO; Carol Lee, White House correspondent for The Wall Street Journal; Manu Raju, 29 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:04,870 senior congressional correspondent for CNN; and Molly Ball, national political 30 00:02:04,870 --> 00:02:08,210 correspondent for The Atlantic. 31 00:02:08,210 --> 00:02:14,580 ANNOUNCER: Award-winning reporting and analysis. Covering history as it happens. 32 00:02:14,580 --> 00:02:21,230 Live from our nation's capital, this is Washington Week with Gwen Ifill. 33 00:02:21,230 --> 00:02:27,590 Once again, live from Washington, moderator Gwen Ifill. GWEN IFILL: Good evening. 34 00:02:27,590 --> 00:02:33,290 Hillary Clinton's 11 hours on the hot seat has widely been interpreted as a win for the 35 00:02:33,290 --> 00:02:37,090 Democratic frontrunner. This moment may explain why. 36 00:02:37,090 --> 00:02:40,960 HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) I would imagine I've thought more about what happened 37 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:46,180 than all of you put together. I've lost more sleep than all of you put together. 38 00:02:46,180 --> 00:02:53,720 I have been wracking my brain about what more could have been done or should have been 39 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:59,350 done. GWEN IFILL: The goal had been to prove that Clinton was negligent and political 40 00:02:59,350 --> 00:03:03,860 in her handling of the Benghazi tragedy that took the lives of four Americans. 41 00:03:03,860 --> 00:03:09,410 Late in the day, Republican Martha Roby pressed Clinton on how she spent the night of 42 00:03:09,410 --> 00:03:12,870 the attack. HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) I was alone, yes. 43 00:03:12,870 --> 00:03:14,770 REPRESENTATIVE MARTHA ROBY (R-AL): (From video.) The whole night? 44 00:03:14,770 --> 00:03:17,980 HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) Well, yes, the whole night. (Laughter.) 45 00:03:17,980 --> 00:03:19,760 REPRESENTATIVE MARTHA ROBY (R-AL): (From video.) Well, I don't know why that's funny. 46 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,250 GWEN IFILL: That happened after 7:00 p.m. 47 00:03:22,250 --> 00:03:25,680 and people were getting punchy but not landing any punches. 48 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,460 REPRESENTATIVE TREY GOWDY (R-SC): (From video.) In terms of her testimony? 49 00:03:28,460 --> 00:03:32,230 I don't know that she testified that much differently today than she has the previous 50 00:03:32,230 --> 00:03:35,900 times she's testified, so I'd have to go back and look at the transcript. 51 00:03:35,900 --> 00:03:39,240 GWEN IFILL: He had to look. We don't know what he found in the transcript, Josh. 52 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,010 Was Trey Gowdy right? JOSH GERSTEIN: He was basically right. 53 00:03:42,010 --> 00:03:46,140 I mean, her testimony was very similar to the testimony she gave almost two years ago on 54 00:03:46,140 --> 00:03:47,760 this topic. 55 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,340 I do think, regardless of whether she said anything new, there were a few new things 56 00:03:51,340 --> 00:03:53,300 that came out at the hearing. 57 00:03:53,300 --> 00:03:56,290 There were a bunch of emails that this committee managed to get that other committees 58 00:03:56,290 --> 00:04:00,820 have not gotten, her famous emails that we saw stacked up there and some from Ambassador 59 00:04:00,820 --> 00:04:04,300 Chris Stevens, who was killed in the attack in Benghazi. 60 00:04:04,300 --> 00:04:08,450 And that added a little bit of context that we didn't know before and fueled some 61 00:04:08,450 --> 00:04:12,370 theories about whether this was, in fact, a terrorist attack or due to the video that 62 00:04:12,370 --> 00:04:14,310 we'd heard at the time. 63 00:04:14,310 --> 00:04:17,470 But there wasn't a whole lot added to the equation during these 11 hours. 64 00:04:17,470 --> 00:04:22,520 GWEN IFILL: You wrote a piece just before the hearings this week about the five rules 65 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,110 that Hillary Clinton should adhere to during this hearing. 66 00:04:26,110 --> 00:04:30,270 I just want to run through them now and see if she actually stuck to your advice - not 67 00:04:30,270 --> 00:04:33,680 your advice but your suggestions. One of them, don't lie. 68 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:35,880 JOSH GERSTEIN: She did pretty well on this, considering - 69 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:37,800 GWEN IFILL: It seems like an obvious idea. 70 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,620 JOSH GERSTEIN: It seems easy, but if someone asks you questions for 11 hours, the 71 00:04:40,620 --> 00:04:44,380 chances that you might, even inadvertently, stray from the facts are actually pretty 72 00:04:44,380 --> 00:04:46,700 high. And it did happen a couple times. 73 00:04:46,700 --> 00:04:50,670 Some of her statements about the email situation in particular, she said that the State 74 00:04:50,670 --> 00:04:54,850 Department had 90 (percent) to 95 percent of her emails before she turned them over to 75 00:04:54,850 --> 00:04:58,080 the State Department. That doesn't seem to be correct. 76 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,570 And there's some other things she said on the email front that don't totally check out 77 00:05:02,570 --> 00:05:05,130 with what we know about the situation. 78 00:05:05,130 --> 00:05:09,120 But across the board on her statements on Libya and Benghazi, there wasn't much change 79 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,200 from what she said before, and I don't think much of it can be really disproven. 80 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:16,010 MANU RAJU: You know, I was in the room there yesterday, Josh, and it seemed like 81 00:05:16,010 --> 00:05:18,190 Republicans clearly had a strategy. 82 00:05:18,190 --> 00:05:23,380 They wanted to paint her as owning that Libya policy, in addition to not responding 83 00:05:23,380 --> 00:05:29,340 quick enough to the warnings from Ambassador Stevens at the time. 84 00:05:29,340 --> 00:05:34,290 But they seemed to keep going down these rabbit holes and getting stuck on these very 85 00:05:34,290 --> 00:05:38,310 specific "gotcha" moments and was trying to get her in a "gotcha" moment. 86 00:05:38,310 --> 00:05:42,830 Why do you think that Trey Gowdy and the committee Republicans kind of ended up in 87 00:05:42,830 --> 00:05:47,660 that - unfortunate for them, looking like they were launching a partisan attack? 88 00:05:47,660 --> 00:05:51,630 JOSH GERSTEIN: Well, obviously the setup to this hearing wasn't very helpful to them to 89 00:05:51,630 --> 00:05:55,680 have Kevin McCarthy come out a few weeks before this hearing and say that this was 90 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,440 intended - or suggested was intended to undermine her poll numbers. 91 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,980 It's something that's just very hard to rebut no matter how many times you say it's not 92 00:06:02,980 --> 00:06:06,580 true. But I agree with you; it did seem like they were trying, in this 11-hour 93 00:06:06,580 --> 00:06:10,150 endurance test, to provoke some kind of an outburst from her. 94 00:06:10,150 --> 00:06:12,890 GWEN IFILL: But she left it to the Democrats - that's one of the other rules. 95 00:06:12,890 --> 00:06:15,770 She left it to the Democrats to fight that fight, that political fight. 96 00:06:15,770 --> 00:06:18,710 JOSH GERSTEIN: Right. I mean, it seemed inevitable that there would be a food fight, 97 00:06:18,710 --> 00:06:22,240 that there would be some kind of shouting match between the two sides, and that did 98 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:26,310 erupt. I think it was over the question of whether Sidney Blumenthal's testimony 99 00:06:26,310 --> 00:06:29,070 should be released, but that was sort of unsurprising to me. 100 00:06:29,070 --> 00:06:33,040 And she did pretty much lean back at that point and let the two sides duke it out. 101 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:37,100 There were times when she seemed to be smiling as the two sides exchanged, and that's 102 00:06:37,100 --> 00:06:41,700 probably a better strategy than getting super angry in the face of the Republican 103 00:06:41,700 --> 00:06:44,280 onslaught. CAROL LEE: Is this story done now? 104 00:06:44,280 --> 00:06:46,880 Does she have any other hurdles that she needs to clear? 105 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:51,380 JOSH GERSTEIN: Well, I think it's been set back substantially, or the air has been 106 00:06:51,380 --> 00:06:54,070 taken out of it a lot, but it's not done. 107 00:06:54,070 --> 00:06:58,090 I mean, there are still all these litigation cases that are in court trying to get her 108 00:06:58,090 --> 00:06:59,800 emails to come out. 109 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,630 There are monthly releases of her emails scheduled through the end of January. 110 00:07:03,630 --> 00:07:08,110 And then of course lingering out there is this FBI investigation into classified 111 00:07:08,110 --> 00:07:12,460 information on her email, and that barely came up at all yesterday during these 11 hours. 112 00:07:12,460 --> 00:07:16,200 CAROL LEE: There was a while there, a pretty long stretch, where this seemed like the 113 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:20,030 House Sid Blumenthal hearing. Why was he such a central figure? 114 00:07:20,030 --> 00:07:23,080 Why was there so much fixation on Sid Blumenthal? 115 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:27,620 JOSH GERSTEIN: Well, there seems to be this notion that Sid Blumenthal was effectively 116 00:07:27,620 --> 00:07:29,630 her Libya adviser. 117 00:07:29,630 --> 00:07:33,060 That's what the Republicans were suggesting, that she was essentially ignoring 118 00:07:33,060 --> 00:07:38,180 suggestions and advice from, in particular, Chris Stevens, the ambassador, while Sid 119 00:07:38,180 --> 00:07:41,030 Blumenthal had her ear. 120 00:07:41,030 --> 00:07:45,300 But it's something that's hotly disputed by Clinton and her team who say, look, you 121 00:07:45,300 --> 00:07:49,530 don't see all the classified briefings she was getting, all the cables she was receiving, 122 00:07:49,530 --> 00:07:53,290 all the other advice that she was getting. Just because you see Sid Blumenthal's 123 00:07:53,290 --> 00:07:56,730 emails doesn't mean that he was her key adviser on Libya. 124 00:07:56,730 --> 00:08:00,390 GWEN IFILL: Before we go through - on to the next segment, I wanted to just check off 125 00:08:00,390 --> 00:08:03,880 the other things you wrote about. You said, don't lie. Check. Don't speculate. 126 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,250 Pretty much check. Don't joke. 127 00:08:06,250 --> 00:08:09,330 She didn't joke except for that one little laugh at Martha Roby. 128 00:08:09,330 --> 00:08:13,890 She didn't - it says don't interfere with the FBI, and stay out of the congressional 129 00:08:13,890 --> 00:08:17,620 food fight. So maybe she was reading what you wrote, Josh. (Laughter.) 130 00:08:17,620 --> 00:08:20,110 JOSH GERSTEIN: She may have been using that as her script. I don't know. 131 00:08:20,110 --> 00:08:23,250 GWEN IFILL: I don't think so. (Laughter.) But that's OK. It was a good script. 132 00:08:23,250 --> 00:08:26,550 Clinton solidified her frontrunner status in other ways too. 133 00:08:26,550 --> 00:08:30,630 Today she won the endorsement of AFSCME, the Democratic-leaning mega union. 134 00:08:30,630 --> 00:08:34,900 And two other Democrats, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee, dropped out of the race, 135 00:08:34,900 --> 00:08:38,200 surprising no one, but Joe Biden did surprise. 136 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:43,010 After sending clear signals of presidential ambition for months, he decided against 137 00:08:43,010 --> 00:08:46,820 challenging Clinton. And with the president at his side in the Rose Garden, 138 00:08:46,820 --> 00:08:49,580 he offered his party a little advice. 139 00:08:49,580 --> 00:08:53,660 VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH BIDEN: (From video.) This party, our nation, will be making a 140 00:08:53,660 --> 00:09:00,060 tragic mistake if we walk away or attempt to undo the Obama legacy. 141 00:09:00,060 --> 00:09:07,790 Democrats should not only defend this record and protect this record, they should run on 142 00:09:07,790 --> 00:09:12,320 the record. GWEN IFILL: By the way, this was Clinton's response today as she was 143 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,160 taking her victory lap. HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) I'm not running for 144 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,450 President Obama's third term. I'm not running for Bill Clinton's third term. 145 00:09:19,450 --> 00:09:22,620 I'm running for my first term. (Cheers.) 146 00:09:22,620 --> 00:09:26,120 GWEN IFILL: The truth is, the vice president was deliberating until the very last 147 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,520 moment, wasn't he, Carol? CAROL LEE: He was. 148 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:32,700 This was a three-month-long parlor game, probably the most intense that we've seen in 149 00:09:32,700 --> 00:09:35,320 some time, but it really went down to the wire. 150 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:40,030 You know, people around him said that there was one day he would be really in it and 151 00:09:40,030 --> 00:09:44,000 they felt like he was going to run, and the next, you know, hour or next day he would 152 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:45,980 feel differently. 153 00:09:45,980 --> 00:09:50,810 And, you know, in the weeks that ran up to this he was back and forth like that, but the 154 00:09:50,810 --> 00:09:56,020 whole time he was making all of the steps that anyone who is seriously thinking about 155 00:09:56,020 --> 00:10:01,100 running would take, which is he was - I mean, up until he decided Tuesday night he was 156 00:10:01,100 --> 00:10:05,550 making phone calls to key supporters and, you know, trying to figure out if people were 157 00:10:05,550 --> 00:10:07,540 really going to be behind him. 158 00:10:07,540 --> 00:10:10,430 GWEN IFILL: As a matter of fact, you said in your story that every time they talked 159 00:10:10,430 --> 00:10:13,270 about it he would ask the same question: Who are my supporters again? 160 00:10:13,270 --> 00:10:15,140 CAROL LEE: Who are my supporters again? 161 00:10:15,140 --> 00:10:17,110 Yeah, and so he kept saying that in these meetings. 162 00:10:17,110 --> 00:10:22,130 So they got to a point a few weeks ago where he felt like the family had come around and 163 00:10:22,130 --> 00:10:27,080 that they had reached a point in their grief - which has been substantial and ongoing - 164 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,430 they had reached a point where they felt like they could all do this. 165 00:10:30,430 --> 00:10:34,220 And so he really started to drill down on the nitty-gritty of the campaign - what the 166 00:10:34,220 --> 00:10:37,310 operation would be, who he would hire, where he would get his money. 167 00:10:37,310 --> 00:10:40,860 And so he started asking those questions more and more, but in that whole time he was 168 00:10:40,860 --> 00:10:42,980 still not making a decision. 169 00:10:42,980 --> 00:10:47,300 And so they had a meeting - he went home to Delaware last weekend, and all of his staff 170 00:10:47,300 --> 00:10:50,540 thought that he was going to come back and say that he was running. 171 00:10:50,540 --> 00:10:55,410 And they activated this campaign-in-waiting under that presumption, and Monday morning 172 00:10:55,410 --> 00:10:58,240 he came in and said he wanted more time. 173 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:03,040 And there was a very contentious staff meeting in which his aides finally said, you 174 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:06,330 have to make a decision; you don't have the luxury of another delay. 175 00:11:06,330 --> 00:11:09,510 And he agreed to make a decision within the next two days. 176 00:11:09,510 --> 00:11:13,400 MOLLY BALL: At the risk of another maddening round of speculation, is there any chance 177 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:15,210 he reconsiders? 178 00:11:15,210 --> 00:11:19,270 I mean, if something - if Hillary, you know, has another really bad stretch or if 179 00:11:19,270 --> 00:11:22,220 there's - it looks like a void in the race for whatever reason - 180 00:11:22,220 --> 00:11:25,820 GWEN IFILL: At the risk of another round of speculation, Molly - (laughter) - 181 00:11:25,820 --> 00:11:31,310 CAROL LEE: Well, there are folks who think - who read into some - there is some people 182 00:11:31,310 --> 00:11:35,640 talking about his comments that, you know, he didn't formally say no; he said, there's no 183 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,620 time now. You know, they've run out of time. 184 00:11:38,620 --> 00:11:43,290 And so, you know, conceivably could he, if she was - you know, completely stumbled? 185 00:11:43,290 --> 00:11:47,640 You know, perhaps, but he's certainly not actively pursuing the nomination. 186 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,800 MANU RAJU: Carol, how much do you think that it's a matter of timing? 187 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,590 And we all know that Joe Biden really wants to be president. 188 00:11:53,590 --> 00:11:56,760 I mean, this would have been his third possible run. 189 00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:00,300 If the timing were a little bit different, if it were August, do you think he could do 190 00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:03,750 the run, or is it just because we're getting so close to the Iowa caucuses? 191 00:12:03,750 --> 00:12:08,490 CAROL LEE: He didn't have - I mean, he just didn't have any of the infrastructure that 192 00:12:08,490 --> 00:12:13,910 you would need for a campaign, and to be able to rev that up in that short of amount of 193 00:12:13,910 --> 00:12:18,090 time - and, look, his polls - we had a poll that came out on Tuesday after the debate and 194 00:12:18,090 --> 00:12:20,780 his numbers were down. He was not going up. 195 00:12:20,780 --> 00:12:24,170 GWEN IFILL: Well, Hillary Clinton had a $77 million head start too. 196 00:12:24,170 --> 00:12:26,650 CAROL LEE: Right, and he - GWEN IFILL: That's not a small - 197 00:12:26,650 --> 00:12:30,100 CAROL LEE: He doesn't - he didn't even have a super PAC. I mean, he had nothing. 198 00:12:30,100 --> 00:12:33,470 He had the Office of the Vice Presidency, and that's a big platform, but it's very 199 00:12:33,470 --> 00:12:36,050 expensive to run a campaign when you're a sitting vice president. 200 00:12:36,050 --> 00:12:39,230 JOSH GERSTEIN: Why was there so much tweaking of Hillary in the lead-up to this 201 00:12:39,230 --> 00:12:42,760 announcement? Is there really a substantive disagreement there or was this just 202 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,800 a way to stir the pot while he was making this decision? 203 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,400 GWEN IFILL: When you say tweaking of Hillary, you mean the part where he talked about 204 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,980 you shouldn't be running against - Republicans are not your enemy, taking aim at 205 00:12:51,980 --> 00:12:54,320 something she said in the debate? 206 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,030 CAROL LEE: I think there's a genuine disagreement there. It's not unintentional. 207 00:12:58,030 --> 00:13:04,300 And, you know, if he were to - if he did run, he was going to be the standard bearer of 208 00:13:04,300 --> 00:13:08,400 the Obama legacy and he was really going - I mean, that was the only path for him. 209 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:13,750 And I think that there is some frustration among him and others in the White House that 210 00:13:13,750 --> 00:13:18,890 she is splitting from them in ways that just appear to be for political gain and not 211 00:13:18,890 --> 00:13:23,680 necessarily for actual policy changes or position changes. 212 00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:29,810 And, you know, one of the things that's lingering out there is will he endorse her? 213 00:13:29,810 --> 00:13:33,590 And if so, when, and what would that mean? 214 00:13:33,590 --> 00:13:36,590 And we'll see if that happens in the coming weeks. 215 00:13:36,590 --> 00:13:39,520 GWEN IFILL: Joe Biden has a way of quoting his relatives a lot. 216 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:43,910 One of his father's quotes was, "Reality has a way of intruding," and it sounds like 217 00:13:43,910 --> 00:13:46,530 that's what happened to him this week. 218 00:13:46,530 --> 00:13:50,220 Well, depending on your point of view, another standard bearer had a pretty good week. 219 00:13:50,220 --> 00:13:54,790 Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman who was the Republican vice presidential nominee 220 00:13:54,790 --> 00:14:00,380 in 2012, said he would run for speaker but only as a unity candidate. 221 00:14:00,380 --> 00:14:03,290 REPRESENTATIVE PAUL RYAN (R-WI): (From video.) I've shown my colleagues what I think 222 00:14:03,290 --> 00:14:07,950 success looks like, what I think it takes to unify and lead, and how my family 223 00:14:07,950 --> 00:14:13,810 commitments come first. I have left this decision in their hands. And should they 224 00:14:13,810 --> 00:14:18,110 agree with these requests, then I am happy and I am willing to get to work. 225 00:14:18,110 --> 00:14:22,770 GWEN IFILL: This seemed to be a tall order for a fractured caucus that chased first 226 00:14:22,770 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker John Boehner and then Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy away and out of the top job. 227 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,880 But by week's end, Ryan had the votes. How did he pull it off, Manu? 228 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,120 MANU RAJU: Well, I mean, the House Republican Caucus has just been in turmoil since 229 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,320 that Boehner announcement last month. 230 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,380 Boehner is going to resign of course by the end of October. 231 00:14:40,380 --> 00:14:44,370 And when McCarthy, you know, who was expected to succeed him, announced that he would 232 00:14:44,370 --> 00:14:47,560 not run, Paul Ryan did not want to take this job. 233 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:52,840 He actually turned in that conference meeting - surprisingly he turned to John Kline, a 234 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,670 Minnesota Republican, and said you do this job because I don't want to do it. 235 00:14:56,670 --> 00:15:02,050 But it was clear that there was nobody within the Republican Conference who could appeal 236 00:15:02,050 --> 00:15:06,850 to the various factions - the moderates, the conservatives, the hard right conservatives 237 00:15:06,850 --> 00:15:11,900 - get them all on board, at least some of them, to assemble a coalition in order to get 238 00:15:11,900 --> 00:15:17,090 the necessary votes on the House floor, the 218 votes you need to become House speaker. 239 00:15:17,090 --> 00:15:20,570 Now, a lot of that has to do with the fact that he's a national name. 240 00:15:20,570 --> 00:15:23,320 Of course he was the vice presidential nominee in 2012. 241 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:28,340 He has that profile and he's got a lot of support on the right. 242 00:15:28,340 --> 00:15:32,970 Maybe some folks on the far right do not support him because of his views on immigration 243 00:15:32,970 --> 00:15:38,190 and other issues that kind of stray from that conservative orthodoxy, but he does have 244 00:15:38,190 --> 00:15:43,840 the core conservative bone fides that makes him popular among that segment of the base. 245 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:48,630 GWEN IFILL: Was he really as reluctant to take this job as he signaled? 246 00:15:48,630 --> 00:15:52,740 MANU RAJU: I think he really was. I mean, he had a decent job as the House Ways and 247 00:15:52,740 --> 00:15:55,310 Means chairman, which is the tax-writing committee. 248 00:15:55,310 --> 00:15:59,340 He was really invested in tax reform. He's 45 years old. 249 00:15:59,340 --> 00:16:02,840 He could potentially maybe one day run for the White House again, and we know the 250 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,550 speakership is a very, very bruising job. 251 00:16:05,550 --> 00:16:09,730 But he came under very, very heavy pressure over the one-week congressional recess. 252 00:16:09,730 --> 00:16:13,740 And when he came back to Washington on Monday he went to his conference and he said, I'm 253 00:16:13,740 --> 00:16:17,920 going to do this but under my conditions, and one of which was he needed to have unity 254 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:23,610 among the various Republican factions and make sure that he did not live sort of week by 255 00:16:23,610 --> 00:16:27,300 week the way John Boehner did and the way Kevin McCarthy eventually did. 256 00:16:27,300 --> 00:16:30,400 And when he went to these factions and he appealed to them, they all sort of realized, 257 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,300 we've got nobody else. 258 00:16:32,300 --> 00:16:35,810 He was the guy and he ended - you know, Thursday night he said, I'm going to run. 259 00:16:35,810 --> 00:16:39,560 MOLLY BALL: Well, once he gets in there, once he wins that vote to become speaker, does 260 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:44,140 he have a strategy for dealing with this incredibly divided conference that so frequently 261 00:16:44,140 --> 00:16:47,160 defeated John Boehner? MANU RAJU: I think this was the easy part. 262 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:51,920 As hard as it was to find unity in this very divided conference, he still has to - he's 263 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,980 going to have the same problems that Boehner had and then McCarthy had. 264 00:16:55,980 --> 00:16:59,710 I mean, what McCarthy has been telling these - sorry, what Paul Ryan has been telling 265 00:16:59,710 --> 00:17:04,500 these guys is that he's willing to work with them and include them in the process, do 266 00:17:04,500 --> 00:17:07,260 sort of a bottom-up approach to legislating. 267 00:17:07,260 --> 00:17:12,060 But that does not deal with all the policy conflicts that they're going to have to deal 268 00:17:12,060 --> 00:17:16,550 with - fiscal issues coming up this fall, the debt ceiling and compromising with the 269 00:17:16,550 --> 00:17:20,160 White House - and appealing to that far-right segment is going to be very, very 270 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:24,090 difficult. So he's going to soon figure out why John Boehner had such a hard time. 271 00:17:24,090 --> 00:17:29,070 CAROL LEE: So when John Boehner stepped down - and if you talk to folks in the White 272 00:17:29,070 --> 00:17:32,510 House, a lot of them are saying Paul Ryan, Paul Ryan, Paul Ryan, and they felt like he 273 00:17:32,510 --> 00:17:36,200 would be their best bet. Would anything change in terms of the relationship between 274 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,840 the White House and the House speaker? 275 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,950 MANU RAJU: Potentially, because you know, Paul Ryan did cut a big budget deal a few 276 00:17:41,950 --> 00:17:45,870 years ago with Senate Democrats and that got the White House onboard that avoided the 277 00:17:45,870 --> 00:17:49,480 threat of a shutdown, at least up until this past threat of a shutdown. 278 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:53,880 (Laugher.) And you know, he has been known to be a guy who could reach across the 279 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,300 aisle, cut a deal. He did that earlier this year, too, on a Medicare deal dealing 280 00:17:57,300 --> 00:18:01,760 with physician reimbursement payments with House Democrats and that got the White 281 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:03,830 House's signature as well. 282 00:18:03,830 --> 00:18:07,710 He is known to be able to do some of that, but he has - those are - you know, that's 283 00:18:07,710 --> 00:18:10,010 just the tip of the iceberg. 284 00:18:10,010 --> 00:18:14,250 It's going to be much more difficult when he's the guy who's in charge of managing the 285 00:18:14,250 --> 00:18:18,210 House, managing all these different personalities, and facing that segment on the right - 286 00:18:18,210 --> 00:18:20,990 that House Freedom Caucus, that controls about 40 votes. 287 00:18:20,990 --> 00:18:24,530 If they decide to vote no on things, then he has - he needs to rely on Democrats. 288 00:18:24,530 --> 00:18:28,490 And this is a very unwieldy process when you start going down that road. 289 00:18:28,490 --> 00:18:30,580 JOSH GERSTEIN: How long is his honeymoon? 290 00:18:30,580 --> 00:18:33,450 Does he get through this debt limit issue in the next few weeks? 291 00:18:33,450 --> 00:18:36,570 Where do you see him possibly being tripped up by these same issues? 292 00:18:36,570 --> 00:18:39,060 MANU RAJU: Yeah, I think it's very short. 293 00:18:39,060 --> 00:18:43,000 You know, John Boehner wants to - what he said - clean up the barn before he leaves. 294 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:47,340 So next week is going to be a very important week on Capitol Hill because it's Boehner's 295 00:18:47,340 --> 00:18:50,950 last week. The leadership elections are Wednesday and Thursday. 296 00:18:50,950 --> 00:18:57,100 So assuming Boehner cannot clean up the barn, it'll be up to Paul Ryan to do that. 297 00:18:57,100 --> 00:19:01,830 And then we'll see how he manages to raise the debt limit - there's no consensus on 298 00:19:01,830 --> 00:19:06,270 how to do that - and also fund the government past December 11, not to mention highway 299 00:19:06,270 --> 00:19:08,270 funding is about to expire. 300 00:19:08,270 --> 00:19:12,100 Congress just has a lot of problems to deal with, and Paul Ryan needs to figure out how 301 00:19:12,100 --> 00:19:15,450 to do it now. GWEN IFILL: Cleaning up the barn. What an evocative term. 302 00:19:15,450 --> 00:19:18,310 (Laughter.) Makes you wonder what's - never mind. (Laughter.) 303 00:19:18,310 --> 00:19:22,620 As the Democratic primary jockeying narrows, uncertainty reigns on the Republican side 304 00:19:22,620 --> 00:19:24,470 - or does it? 305 00:19:24,470 --> 00:19:29,320 Polls now consistently show Donald Trump - who loves polls when he's leading them - and 306 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,740 Ben Carson, who actually took time off from the campaign trail for a book tour, they're 307 00:19:33,740 --> 00:19:35,860 both way out front. 308 00:19:35,860 --> 00:19:39,240 BEN CARSON: (From video.) It's going to be the most clear-cut election in the history 309 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:40,960 of America. 310 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:45,950 People will be able to decide, do they want a nation that is dominated by a government 311 00:19:45,950 --> 00:19:51,640 that tells you what to do, or do we want a nation that is of, for, and by the people with 312 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,800 a government there to facilitate life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness? 313 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:59,880 GWEN IFILL: A clear-cut election, but where does this leave Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, 314 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,520 John Kasich, and half a dozen more? 315 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,750 Molly Ball wrote this week that it's finally time to believe that Trump is running a 316 00:20:06,750 --> 00:20:09,450 serious campaign. What's your reasoning, Molly? 317 00:20:09,450 --> 00:20:12,710 MOLLY BALL: Well, I - what I actually wrote was I think Trump has been running a 318 00:20:12,710 --> 00:20:14,950 serious campaign almost from the beginning. 319 00:20:14,950 --> 00:20:18,430 It's just taken the media a while to sort of have this sink in. 320 00:20:18,430 --> 00:20:23,750 You know, very shortly after he announced, he hired some well-credentialed operatives 321 00:20:23,750 --> 00:20:26,560 in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. 322 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,880 Since then he's been staffing up, not just in those early states but in the Super 323 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:34,700 Tuesday states, in the so-called SEC primary states that vote after that, all the way 324 00:20:34,700 --> 00:20:37,260 into some of the late March primaries. 325 00:20:37,260 --> 00:20:41,260 So he's doing the things that a real candidate would do, and yet we continue to have 326 00:20:41,260 --> 00:20:45,080 this suspicion that this is all a lark, that it's not real, that he's just sort of flying 327 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:46,420 by the seat of his pants. 328 00:20:46,420 --> 00:20:48,110 GWEN IFILL: We keep waiting for the numbers to collapse, and they don't. 329 00:20:48,110 --> 00:20:49,490 MOLLY BALL: And they don't. 330 00:20:49,490 --> 00:20:52,230 And in fact, what happened after the last debate, where he seemed to have sort of a weak 331 00:20:52,230 --> 00:20:55,000 performance, he did dip a little bit, and then he climbed back up again. 332 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,410 And what seems to be happening is some of those Trump voters look around for someone 333 00:20:58,410 --> 00:21:01,980 else they could support and they come back to him because they don't see anybody better. 334 00:21:01,980 --> 00:21:05,920 MANU RAJU: Molly, you know, Trump's part of - so much of Trump's campaign has been 335 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:10,300 this bravado, him always saying I'm winning in the polls, I'm doing great, you know, look 336 00:21:10,300 --> 00:21:12,200 at everyone else, they're terrible. 337 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:16,320 But we've seen recent polls that Ben Carson is rising and winning in Iowa. 338 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:20,020 What do you think this will do to Trump's campaign when he can no longer say I'm the guy 339 00:21:20,020 --> 00:21:21,730 who's winning in all the polls? 340 00:21:21,730 --> 00:21:24,330 MOLLY BALL: Well, what you forget is that Donald Trump can say whatever Donald Trump 341 00:21:24,330 --> 00:21:26,180 wants to say. (Laughter.) MANU RAJU: At that particular time. (Laughter.) 342 00:21:26,180 --> 00:21:28,190 MOLLY BALL: He doesn't have to say what the objective reality is. 343 00:21:28,190 --> 00:21:31,010 You know, and what we've seen from him a lot in the past is that he'll cherry pick the 344 00:21:31,010 --> 00:21:32,810 poll that makes him look good. 345 00:21:32,810 --> 00:21:38,110 There was one very suspect, very small sample, like online poll once that showed him 346 00:21:38,110 --> 00:21:41,590 winning Hispanics somewhere and he continues to cite that as proof that he will win 347 00:21:41,590 --> 00:21:44,330 Hispanics everywhere, even though no other poll shows that. 348 00:21:44,330 --> 00:21:47,820 So I think what you'll see from him, it will be interesting. 349 00:21:47,820 --> 00:21:52,370 As you say, Ben Carson now ahead in Iowa according to a couple of well-respected polls. 350 00:21:52,370 --> 00:21:56,290 Trump still leading everywhere else, still leading nationally. 351 00:21:56,290 --> 00:22:01,430 So far he hasn't wanted to go on the attack against Ben Carson because he says Carson 352 00:22:01,430 --> 00:22:05,260 hasn't attacked him, but I wonder if that'll change if Carson 353 00:22:05,260 --> 00:22:07,340 starts gaining on him some more. 354 00:22:07,340 --> 00:22:10,850 JOSH GERSTEIN: Molly, is there a change among Republican strategists in their thinking 355 00:22:10,850 --> 00:22:15,560 about not whether Trump's running a serious campaign, but whether he can actually win? 356 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:19,760 Because many of them thought, oh, it's impossible, and that therefore he will have to 357 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,760 collapse because somebody who's not electable can't win. Is that true? 358 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,590 GWEN IFILL: And we saw in an interview this week with Mike Murphy, who works for Jeb 359 00:22:26,590 --> 00:22:30,400 Bush and has worked for other mainstream candidates, saying, oh, he's still not to be 360 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,050 taken seriously. 361 00:22:32,050 --> 00:22:35,420 MOLLY BALL: Well, there's always been this feeling that he - that he would inevitably 362 00:22:35,420 --> 00:22:37,780 collapse, but nobody ever knew how it would happen. 363 00:22:37,780 --> 00:22:39,880 It was just going to be sort of like magic. 364 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,670 And there's now, I think, a dawning realization or a turning over of the conventional 365 00:22:44,670 --> 00:22:49,890 wisdom, if you will - a lot of Republican establishment types, sinking in that, whoa, 366 00:22:49,890 --> 00:22:52,800 this could actually happen, he could actually win the nomination because we don't have a 367 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,440 way to stop him. 368 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,660 You had Joe Scarborough saying that this week, a lot of other Republicans that I speak 369 00:22:57,660 --> 00:23:01,830 to - top Republicans - saying I don't know how this is going to end, I don't know how 370 00:23:01,830 --> 00:23:06,400 he's going to be derailed. So this is - this is frightening to those people. 371 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:10,550 But again, I think part of the problem is that there isn't another candidate who's 372 00:23:10,550 --> 00:23:13,630 compelling enough to a broad enough swath of the party. 373 00:23:13,630 --> 00:23:18,170 And the candidate who thought he was going to be the Trump alternative, Jeb Bush, has 374 00:23:18,170 --> 00:23:21,030 really plummeted and has not been very strong. 375 00:23:21,030 --> 00:23:24,680 GWEN IFILL: And today is actually cutting back his - or start cutting pay for his 376 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,420 campaign staff. MOLLY BALL: Cut salaries across the board, yeah. 377 00:23:27,420 --> 00:23:31,250 CAROL LEE: So how does Donald Trump's, like, organization compare to the other 378 00:23:31,250 --> 00:23:35,870 candidates, his competitors? I mean, is it still the same rudimentary campaign 379 00:23:35,870 --> 00:23:39,620 operation? Is there some bling to it? Like, is he - is he everywhere? 380 00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:43,920 Is he actually, you know, on the ground in these states? MOLLY BALL: He really is. 381 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:48,850 He's got these operations in all of these states. He also is building a voter file. 382 00:23:48,850 --> 00:23:52,830 So he's - when you go to a Trump event it's very professionally done, and he's taking 383 00:23:52,830 --> 00:23:56,630 everybody's information. He's gathering a list of these people. 384 00:23:56,630 --> 00:24:00,670 You know with 16 Republican candidates it's hard to - they're all over the map in terms 385 00:24:00,670 --> 00:24:02,420 of what they're building. 386 00:24:02,420 --> 00:24:05,860 We've seen Marco Rubio building a very lean campaign and taking some criticism for that, 387 00:24:05,860 --> 00:24:08,730 that he doesn't have enough of an operation on the ground. 388 00:24:08,730 --> 00:24:12,730 On the other hand, you saw Scott Walker get overextended building out his staff, 389 00:24:12,730 --> 00:24:17,050 building out these offices, and then not be able to sustain that and sort of being felled 390 00:24:17,050 --> 00:24:19,230 by his own overhead. 391 00:24:19,230 --> 00:24:22,960 So there's a - there's a sort of broad spectrum, but I would say that Trump is building 392 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,460 at least among the most robust and extensive national organizations. 393 00:24:26,460 --> 00:24:30,320 GWEN IFILL: OK. Well, we'll be watching to see who decides to take the first shot 394 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,790 and whether it lands. Thank you, everybody. 395 00:24:32,790 --> 00:24:37,090 We have to go now, but as always the conversation will continue online on the Washington 396 00:24:37,090 --> 00:24:42,450 Week Webcast Extra, where among other things we'll talk about the brief, unspectacular 397 00:24:42,450 --> 00:24:45,400 Lincoln Chafee campaign. 398 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:50,220 You can find it all later tonight and all week long at PBS.org/WashingtonWeek. 399 00:24:50,220 --> 00:24:54,660 Keep up with developments with Judy Woodruff and me on the PBS NewsHour, and we'll see 400 00:24:54,660 --> 00:25:15,750 you right here next week on Washington Week. Good night.