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- All right, so, 
I'm not a chemist,

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I can't make anything light up,

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and I can't blow anything up,

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which is much to 
my consternation

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throughout my entire career.

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I would much prefer to be able

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to show you something 
that spectacular.

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When Dr. Shakhashiri 
asked me to speak here

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on the topic of sustainability, 
I was flabbergasted.

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In part because 
that term is either

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the most important term 
of the 21st century

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or the most incoherent 
and impossible to use.

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Or both.

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So what I'm gonna 
try to do is express,

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in a really grounded example, 
what sustainability is.

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I mean, defined as kind 
of a normative objective,

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like, we want to be sustainable,

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that's really about achieving 
the needs of the present

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without compromising 
the needs of the future.

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I mean, that's good ethics.

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That's a sound normative goal.

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It's what most 
people who believe in

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the stewardship of the 
Earth want to practice,

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but it is sure easier 
said than done.

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In other words, what 
are we supposed to do

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if we want to achieve both 
outcomes at the same time?

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Feed everybody.

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Keep the lights on. 
Turn the lights on.

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800,000,000 people in 
Africa are going to

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have electricity 
within the next decade.

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How they get it is a really, 
really interesting question.

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These are people who currently 
do not have electricity.

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They don't have refrigerators. 
They don't have anything.

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So let me see if I can 
think a little bit about

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what achieving the now

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and achieving the 
future might look like.

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If I threw you out of 
helicopter in southern India,

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hopefully you had a parachute,

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and dumped you in 
the southern Ghats

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or the Western Ghats in the 
southern part of the country,

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so it's at the 
southern tip of India.

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I'll show you a map in a moment. 
It's hilly country up here.

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You can see it, about 900 
meters, deeply forested.

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I drop ya in there. 
What are you gonna see?

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You're gonna wander around, 
assuming you haven't 
broken you legs.

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You're gonna slash your way 
through the undergrowth,

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and you're gonna find 
lots of endemic species.

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You're gonna find 
trees and plants.

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You're gonna feel like you're 
out, you know, in nature.

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That's my colleague, Dr. Ashwini 
Chhatre, here in the region.

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You're gonna to see 
a lot of wildlife,

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as I'm gonna show you, 
you're gonna hear birds.

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How many birders 
do we have here?

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Anybody a birder? 
Sort of?

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Usually these places 
are packed with birders.

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Okay, well, you'd hear birds. 
You wouldn't know what they are.

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But you'd feel like, 
you know, nature, right?

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If you were there at night 
in the middle of a rainstorm,

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you would hear frogs, you 
would hear amphibians.

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You would see all 
kinds of wildlife.

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And you could wander for miles 
seeing all this wildlife.

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But if you ever 
looked at your feet,

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statistically, you are very 
likely to see the following.

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Just as a random sample, 
and what is that?

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Any guesses?

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That's coffee.

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Thousands of square 
kilometers of coffee.

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Thousands of square 
kilometers of rubber.

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Thousands of square kilometers 
of what is called areca nut,

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which you chew and you 
get a little buzz off of.

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This is a export oriented, 
capitalist economy.

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Driving onto the,

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you go to the store 
and you buy coffee,

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you might have Indian 
coffee in there.

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If you are driving on tires,

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you probably have Indian rubber.

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Hand-tapped Indian 
rubber from south India.

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This is a booming economy.

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This is a growing economy.

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And yet, right, it's 
fecund with wildlife.

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That strikes me 
as a core example

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of what you might 
call sustainability.

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That is, in other words,

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something's happening 
in the present

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without, in theory, 
compromising the future.

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The biodiversity of the Earth,

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the sustainability 
of Earth's systems.

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If you've got frogs, 
quite frankly,

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it means you probably 
have good water quality.

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It means you probably 
have ecosystem services,

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as they're called.

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That is, things that the 
ecosystem, when it's healthy,

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produces for wildlife, means 
it's producing for the Earth.

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All right?

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Sustainability in a 
very grounded example.

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That is a hell of a lot more 
useful than this definition.

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It's one of my favorites,

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but this is classic 
science writing.

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So, this is a definition 
of sustainability science.

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And I only want you to look 
at the words I've bolded.

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This is just my way of saying,

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"Yeah, there's some clever 
scientists who agree with me,"

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right?

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The three key words 
are integration, 
mitigate, and future.

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See those?

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Integration means, if you're 
thinking about sustainability,

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the needs of the present, 
you've gotta think about what?

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I mean, think about 
the Indian example.

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What do you have to think 
about in the present?

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What are those folks 
living down there

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in India thinking about?

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What's that? Sorry.

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- [Audience] Food. 
- Food.

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They have to put food 
on the table.

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They're either 
growing it themselves

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or they've gotta sell 
coffee to buy it.

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They're thinking about food.

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What else are they 
thinking about?

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They're thinking about water.

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Some of these coffee 
plantations are irrigated.

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They're thinking about water.

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They are thinking 
about the now, right?

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But that also means they're 
thinking about the economy.

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They're thinking about what 
they can bear on the market,

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right, when they 
sell their coffee.

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They are thinking 
about their family.

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They're thinking about 
the social relationships

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with their neighbors, 
they're thinking about

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how much they have 
to pay their workers.

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In other words, if you're gonna 
think about sustainability,

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you have to be integrated.

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You need to be thinking 
about economics.

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You need to be thinking 
about social relationships.

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You need to be 
thinkin' about frogs.

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As it turns out, 
none of these farmers

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actually give a damn 
about frogs, sadly.

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But they protect 
them accidentally.

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And we're gonna come back 
to that in just a minute.

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The point is it needs 
to be integrated.

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To understand what's 
going on for the future,

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you have to do a lot.

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Am I too loud?

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He's covering his 
ears, I'm so concerned.

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Oh, okay, as long 
as you're all right.

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Two, mitigate.

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What does it mean to mitigate?

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It means that we know we 
have a presence on the Earth,

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right, humanity has 
a hand on the Earth

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that transforms Earth's systems.

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There is no getting around it.

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When we're done with 
population growth,

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and I'm a little more 
optimistic than Bassam here,

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we'll be about 9,000,000,000 
people on the Earth.

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That is nothin' to sneeze at.

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Maybe 10,000,000,000.

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When growth stops at the 
middle of this century.

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That's still a lot 
of people, right?

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You can't not impact the Earth.

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Climate change is the 
signature of human industry.

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Like it or not. 
We are present on the Earth.

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How do we mitigate 
that presence in a way

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00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:08,133
that we can sustain 
the future, right?

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That's the second word, right?

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So, integrate, mitigate, 
and the third one is future.

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That the sustainability 
people are always thinkin'

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about the future.

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All right, what 
does that look like?

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In practice, most 
sustainability experts

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talk about this as the 
triple bottom line.

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It's not a term I 
particularly like.

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But you can see what 
they're trying to get at 
with this diagram.

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If you look up here, 
what you're seeing

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is that you're trying 
to sustain economy.

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Whether or not you 
need economic growth 
is a debatable question,

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00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:35,400
but you're trying to 
sustain the economy.

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These farmers aren't going to 
do things that make them poor,

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broke, or can't send their 
kids to school, right?

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They're not stupid, 
they're smart.

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So they're thinkin' 
about the economy.

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At the same time, we 
have to think about 
environmental stewardship.

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If we blow all the water 
resources in the now,

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we won't have it 
in the then, right?

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So you're thinking about 
environmental stewardship,

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00:06:56,366 --> 00:06:58,366
but you're also thinking 
about social progress.

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This is a nation of more 
than a billion people

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that have aspirations.

187
00:07:04,766 --> 00:07:07,133
They want access to the 
science and technology

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00:07:07,233 --> 00:07:09,366
that is their 
human right, right?

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00:07:09,466 --> 00:07:10,866
All three of those things.

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00:07:10,966 --> 00:07:14,466
And we'd like to think that 
if we could just get one,

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00:07:14,566 --> 00:07:17,766
the other two would just 
kind of sort themselves out.

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00:07:17,866 --> 00:07:19,600
If we just saved the planet,

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00:07:19,700 --> 00:07:21,733
why, everybody 
would be developed.

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Or if we just built 
the economy big enough,

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then the environment 
would be saved.

196
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But the truth is, 
it's harder than that.

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There are trade-offs and 
there are relationships.

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00:07:30,300 --> 00:07:32,800
So what I'm gonna do with the 
remainder of the time here

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00:07:32,900 --> 00:07:36,400
is just show you a grounded 
example, it's all pictures,

200
00:07:36,500 --> 00:07:39,300
from India about what 
those trade-offs look like.

201
00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,066
When you're trying to 
defend an economy, right,

202
00:07:42,166 --> 00:07:44,566
an export oriented economy 
and, at the same time,

203
00:07:44,666 --> 00:07:47,433
you're thinking 
about biodiversity 
and social progress.

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00:07:47,533 --> 00:07:50,666
That is, the rights of working 
people around the world.

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00:07:50,766 --> 00:07:52,566
So we'll go back to our example.

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00:07:52,666 --> 00:07:54,233
And the example 
takes place amidst,

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00:07:54,333 --> 00:07:56,766
and this is the last 
word I'll throw at you,

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00:07:56,866 --> 00:07:59,300
an era that many scientists, 
including geologists,

209
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,066
stratigraphers 
most specifically,

210
00:08:01,166 --> 00:08:03,666
the people who study 
the Earth's strata,

211
00:08:03,766 --> 00:08:05,733
right, the layers 
of rock and soil,

212
00:08:05,833 --> 00:08:07,866
they call this the Anthropocene.

213
00:08:07,966 --> 00:08:09,333
It's a debated term.

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00:08:09,433 --> 00:08:12,766
But it means a geologic era 
that succeeds the Holocene,

215
00:08:12,866 --> 00:08:14,700
that comes after the Holocene,

216
00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,966
in which we simply admit 
that the human footprint

217
00:08:18,066 --> 00:08:20,033
is actually in the 
Earth's geology.

218
00:08:20,133 --> 00:08:21,800
When did it start, 
10,000 years ago?

219
00:08:21,900 --> 00:08:23,266
Did it start 200 years ago?

220
00:08:23,366 --> 00:08:26,566
Did it start in the 1950s 
with nuclear weapons?

221
00:08:26,666 --> 00:08:27,866
These are debates 
that stratigraphers

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00:08:27,966 --> 00:08:30,933
are actually having 
right now, right.

223
00:08:31,033 --> 00:08:32,933
They're actually 
debating in closed rooms

224
00:08:33,033 --> 00:08:35,833
whether or not to rename our 
geologic era the Anthropocene.

225
00:08:35,933 --> 00:08:37,533
But my point about 
putting this slide up

226
00:08:37,633 --> 00:08:39,266
is simply to say 
that it is contested.

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00:08:39,366 --> 00:08:41,466
Think about that.

228
00:08:41,566 --> 00:08:42,800
We're trying to 
sustain the future

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00:08:42,900 --> 00:08:44,466
in a world that's 
actually changing.

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00:08:44,566 --> 00:08:45,766
It's like a moving target.

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00:08:45,866 --> 00:08:47,400
That's enormously difficult.

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00:08:47,500 --> 00:08:50,366
It's very, 
intimidatingly difficult.

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00:08:50,466 --> 00:08:53,066
We have climate change, 
we have new ecosystems,

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00:08:53,166 --> 00:08:54,700
we have altered geomorphology,

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00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:56,266
we have altered biogeochemistry,

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00:08:56,366 --> 00:08:58,900
and this causes lots of 
very smart scientists

237
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:00,833
to disagree with one another.

238
00:09:00,933 --> 00:09:03,666
In the bottom left, 
we have a series of conservation 
biologists who say

239
00:09:03,766 --> 00:09:05,966
the world is basically 
coming to an end. (laughs)

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00:09:06,066 --> 00:09:09,333
That we need to get people 
off the land, in a sense.

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00:09:09,433 --> 00:09:11,933
In the upper right, you have 
a journalist, an Emma Maris,

242
00:09:12,033 --> 00:09:13,433
who has interviewed 
other scientists,

243
00:09:13,533 --> 00:09:15,133
who says, actually, 
you know what?

244
00:09:15,233 --> 00:09:18,866
We're gardening the planet, we 
might as well just admit it.

245
00:09:18,966 --> 00:09:20,233
We have this heavy hand.

246
00:09:20,333 --> 00:09:22,600
We should just make 
responsible, creative choices.

247
00:09:22,700 --> 00:09:24,200
This is a very divisive debate.

248
00:09:24,300 --> 00:09:26,766
And it is the fundamental 
question in sustainability.

249
00:09:26,866 --> 00:09:28,700
So let's go to my case example

250
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,033
that I'll kind of close out 
the conversation with here.

251
00:09:32,133 --> 00:09:34,266
And this comes from 
National Science Foundation

252
00:09:34,366 --> 00:09:36,400
funded research that I'm 
doing with my colleagues

253
00:09:36,500 --> 00:09:38,766
in India and around the country.

254
00:09:38,866 --> 00:09:40,600
And it's a very simple question.

255
00:09:40,700 --> 00:09:43,266
If we go back to those 
coffee plantations,

256
00:09:43,366 --> 00:09:44,933
we go back to those 
rubber plantations,

257
00:09:45,033 --> 00:09:47,433
we're gonna ask ourselves 
a really simple question:

258
00:09:47,533 --> 00:09:49,166
is there nature there?

259
00:09:49,266 --> 00:09:50,566
Is there biodiversity?

260
00:09:50,666 --> 00:09:52,366
When do you get 
that biodiversity?

261
00:09:52,466 --> 00:09:55,566
When is the landscape fecund 
with all this wildlife,

262
00:09:55,666 --> 00:09:57,033
and when is it 
basically a desert?

263
00:09:57,133 --> 00:09:59,633
Because if you go from one 
coffee plantation to another

264
00:09:59,733 --> 00:10:01,666
to another, what 
you're going to find is

265
00:10:01,766 --> 00:10:05,000
some seem to be really 
productive and some don't.

266
00:10:05,100 --> 00:10:06,966
And if you're interested 
in sustainability, right,

267
00:10:07,066 --> 00:10:09,400
you're interested in what it is

268
00:10:09,500 --> 00:10:13,033
that causes people 
to manage the land

269
00:10:13,133 --> 00:10:15,433
in a way that produces all that 
biodiversity for the future.

270
00:10:15,533 --> 00:10:16,833
Why do they do it?

271
00:10:16,933 --> 00:10:19,266
Why, 'cause like I said, there's 
not money in frogs,

272
00:10:19,366 --> 00:10:21,733
I can tell you. 
There's money in coffee.

273
00:10:21,833 --> 00:10:24,700
So that's the project. 
Pictures.

274
00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:26,166
This is a map here.

275
00:10:26,266 --> 00:10:29,366
I don't think I've got 
a laser pointer here.

276
00:10:29,466 --> 00:10:31,133
(someone speaks off mic)

277
00:10:31,233 --> 00:10:32,966
There's one here?

278
00:10:33,066 --> 00:10:34,500
Is that this guy?

279
00:10:36,833 --> 00:10:38,400
(excited exclamation) 
So the southern Ghats,

280
00:10:38,500 --> 00:10:41,866
this is the southern tip of 
India, down here, like this.

281
00:10:41,966 --> 00:10:43,500
Pakistan is up here.

282
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,200
Myanmar, Burma, is over here.

283
00:10:45,300 --> 00:10:46,933
This is the southwestern part.

284
00:10:47,033 --> 00:10:48,266
This is the Western Ghats.

285
00:10:48,366 --> 00:10:51,066
Those little brown 
splotches that you see there

286
00:10:51,166 --> 00:10:53,300
are tiger reserves 
or nature parks.

287
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,666
What's the one thing 
you notice about this?

288
00:10:55,766 --> 00:10:58,300
Most of the land is 
not in protected areas.

289
00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:00,766
Most of the land, right, 
is owned by people.

290
00:11:00,866 --> 00:11:03,833
Private owners who grow 
stuff for the market, right.

291
00:11:03,933 --> 00:11:05,300
Most of the landscape,

292
00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,366
and we've made a lot of new 
parks in India, but frankly,

293
00:11:08,466 --> 00:11:10,533
in the end, what happens 
outside the parks

294
00:11:10,633 --> 00:11:12,333
is more important than what 
happens inside the parks.

295
00:11:12,433 --> 00:11:14,466
That's true in the U.S. 
It's true in India.

296
00:11:14,566 --> 00:11:15,800
It's true everywhere.

297
00:11:15,900 --> 00:11:17,400
That's where sustainability 
has to happen.

298
00:11:17,500 --> 00:11:20,333
We can't make the entire 
Earth a nature park, right.

299
00:11:20,433 --> 00:11:21,866
People have to live somewhere.

300
00:11:21,966 --> 00:11:24,566
Okay, so we're out here 
with our colleagues

301
00:11:24,666 --> 00:11:26,066
from the Wildlife 
Conservation Society

302
00:11:26,166 --> 00:11:27,566
and the Center for 
Wildlife Studies,

303
00:11:27,666 --> 00:11:29,033
and we're just 
tryin' to figure out,

304
00:11:29,133 --> 00:11:31,333
in this particular region 
in southwestern Karnataka,

305
00:11:31,433 --> 00:11:32,700
where we see wildlife.

306
00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:34,133
We wanted to do fauna, 
it's very hard to,

307
00:11:34,233 --> 00:11:37,033
this is like an animal 
assembled by committee.

308
00:11:37,133 --> 00:11:39,033
It's the strangest 
lookin' thing.

309
00:11:39,133 --> 00:11:40,533
We're not counting these.

310
00:11:40,633 --> 00:11:42,000
We're mostly counting 
birds and frogs

311
00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:43,966
because they're easier to find

312
00:11:44,066 --> 00:11:47,033
and because they are indicative 
of ecosystem health, right.

313
00:11:47,133 --> 00:11:49,666
So if we've got lots of birds 
and we've got lots of frogs,

314
00:11:49,766 --> 00:11:51,200
we know something's 
goin' right.

315
00:11:51,300 --> 00:11:52,966
Something's going 
on sustainably.

316
00:11:53,066 --> 00:11:55,200
I won't get down into 
this except to say that

317
00:11:55,300 --> 00:11:57,833
it's wet down here on the left 
side and dry on the right,

318
00:11:57,933 --> 00:12:02,800
which is why 30% of the 
biodiversity of southern Asia

319
00:12:02,900 --> 00:12:04,533
is right here in 
this one region.

320
00:12:04,633 --> 00:12:06,766
So this is a, "Why rob banks?"

321
00:12:06,866 --> 00:12:08,133
Why rob banks?

322
00:12:08,233 --> 00:12:09,933
'Cause that's 
where the money is.

323
00:12:10,033 --> 00:12:11,500
Why count birds and 
frogs down here?

324
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,300
'Cause it's where all the 
biodiversity is, okay.

325
00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:15,066
So, we're lookin' for 
it in the right place.

326
00:12:15,166 --> 00:12:16,733
This is what it looks 
like at elevation.

327
00:12:16,833 --> 00:12:18,466
You see forest, you 
see open grasslands.

328
00:12:18,566 --> 00:12:21,033
This is very human influenced. 
It's an Anthropocene landscape.

329
00:12:21,133 --> 00:12:23,833
People have totally remade 
this landscape.

330
00:12:23,933 --> 00:12:25,433
And what do we see?

331
00:12:25,533 --> 00:12:27,566
Thousands of square 
kilometers of coffee.

332
00:12:27,666 --> 00:12:29,600
Thousands of square 
kilometers of rubber.

333
00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:31,066
And of areca nut.

334
00:12:31,166 --> 00:12:33,133
What's really interesting, 
like rubber, I had never gone,

335
00:12:33,233 --> 00:12:34,800
this is a new project for me.

336
00:12:34,900 --> 00:12:37,066
I didn't know people 
still grew rubber.

337
00:12:37,166 --> 00:12:41,266
1/4 of the rubber 
that you encounter is 
actually hand-tapped

338
00:12:41,366 --> 00:12:42,866
in India or southeast Asia.

339
00:12:42,966 --> 00:12:47,400
It's a remarkably 
enormous global economy.

340
00:12:47,500 --> 00:12:48,800
This is what coffee looks like.

341
00:12:48,900 --> 00:12:50,766
The coffee's growing 
down under here.

342
00:12:50,866 --> 00:12:52,200
Here we have silver oak,

343
00:12:52,300 --> 00:12:54,200
which is actually not even 
an indigenous species.

344
00:12:54,300 --> 00:12:55,900
Most of these land 
holdings are really small.

345
00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:57,866
These are small producers, 
they're not poor,

346
00:12:57,966 --> 00:12:59,800
but they're not like big 
global corporations, right.

347
00:12:59,900 --> 00:13:02,400
This is mom and pop 
operations, okay.

348
00:13:02,500 --> 00:13:04,433
Here's what rubber looks 
like, that's hand-tapped.

349
00:13:04,533 --> 00:13:07,133
You can see they score 
the side of the tree.

350
00:13:07,233 --> 00:13:10,766
And then the sap, right, 
the latex, runs into these.

351
00:13:10,866 --> 00:13:13,933
It is flattened out, dried, 
and then sold on a market.

352
00:13:14,033 --> 00:13:16,000
And this is a huge 
global market.

353
00:13:16,100 --> 00:13:18,900
There are certain products 
that can only be made with 
hand-tapped rubber.

354
00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,400
So this is a big economy. 
And this is areca nut.

355
00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:23,800
There's a nut, it's a 
palm, it grows way up here.

356
00:13:23,900 --> 00:13:25,633
You cut it down, 
you grind it up.

357
00:13:25,733 --> 00:13:28,366
And you chew it, and you 
get a little head buzz.

358
00:13:28,466 --> 00:13:30,833
It's a big business. Okay.

359
00:13:30,933 --> 00:13:32,533
This is the science part.

360
00:13:32,633 --> 00:13:34,366
Our question is very simple.

361
00:13:34,466 --> 00:13:37,366
When you see biodiversity, 
what are farmers doing?

362
00:13:37,466 --> 00:13:38,866
What are they doing?

363
00:13:38,966 --> 00:13:40,600
And if you see 
farmers doing stuff

364
00:13:40,700 --> 00:13:42,566
that produces biodiversity, 
why do they do it?

365
00:13:42,666 --> 00:13:45,033
Is it because they get 
good farm gate prices?

366
00:13:45,133 --> 00:13:47,733
Is is because they're 
in cooperatives?

367
00:13:47,833 --> 00:13:50,300
What makes people do the 
things that we desire

368
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,333
if we wanna see sustainability?

369
00:13:52,433 --> 00:13:54,933
Right, knowing that 
there's no money in frogs,

370
00:13:55,033 --> 00:13:56,733
why would you have frogs then?

371
00:13:56,833 --> 00:13:58,700
What would produce that effect?

372
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,166
And to find that out, it 
means you have to sample

373
00:14:01,266 --> 00:14:04,033
hundreds and hundreds and 
hundreds of plantations

374
00:14:04,133 --> 00:14:06,600
all throughout the southern 
part of this country.

375
00:14:06,700 --> 00:14:08,800
And it is a pain in the butt.

376
00:14:08,900 --> 00:14:11,766
We have bird count points

377
00:14:11,866 --> 00:14:14,133
where you go out 
into the forest,

378
00:14:14,233 --> 00:14:16,933
you get a random spot, 
and then you develop

379
00:14:17,033 --> 00:14:21,000
a series of orthogonal spots

380
00:14:21,100 --> 00:14:24,666
or sampling sites 
inside the plantation.

381
00:14:24,766 --> 00:14:28,100
And you stand there for three 
days in a row at dawn and dusk

382
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,133
and you listen and 
you count the birds.

383
00:14:30,233 --> 00:14:32,733
And the people who do this 
are incredibly talented.

384
00:14:32,833 --> 00:14:35,166
We have 11 volunteers 
and six interns.

385
00:14:35,266 --> 00:14:38,000
Hundreds of people apply to join 
this science project, actually.

386
00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:40,466
And then they have to take a 
test to identify the birds.

387
00:14:40,566 --> 00:14:42,633
And they all say they're 
really good at birds.

388
00:14:42,733 --> 00:14:45,033
And most of them just 
do not pass the test.

389
00:14:45,133 --> 00:14:46,566
I couldn't pass this test.

390
00:14:46,666 --> 00:14:49,133
To get into this club, 
you've got to be able to

391
00:14:49,233 --> 00:14:50,766
identify hundred of 
birds species by ear.

392
00:14:50,866 --> 00:14:52,266
It's quite remarkable.

393
00:14:52,366 --> 00:14:55,133
And then also take other 
kinds of measurements

394
00:14:55,233 --> 00:14:57,766
on the landscape to control 
for various variables.

395
00:14:57,866 --> 00:14:59,433
The point is, did we find birds?

396
00:14:59,533 --> 00:15:00,900
You better believe it.

397
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,766
We found enormous biodiversity

398
00:15:03,866 --> 00:15:05,666
in these fully 
productive landscapes.

399
00:15:05,766 --> 00:15:07,966
Birds, for those of 
you who do like birds,

400
00:15:08,066 --> 00:15:10,766
the southern Ghats is a 
great place to take a week.

401
00:15:10,866 --> 00:15:13,333
And just go up to one of 
these coffee plantations.

402
00:15:13,433 --> 00:15:16,866
Get yourself into a 
hammock with a bird book

403
00:15:16,966 --> 00:15:21,133
and a camera and 
a glass of wine.

404
00:15:21,233 --> 00:15:23,800
And you're good, you 
know, for days on end.

405
00:15:23,900 --> 00:15:26,400
We're seeing a lot 
of endemic species,

406
00:15:26,500 --> 00:15:28,000
but also migratory species.

407
00:15:28,100 --> 00:15:29,666
So, all these really 
important Asian species

408
00:15:29,766 --> 00:15:32,900
that migrate all the way from 
Siberia down to Sri Lanka

409
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,066
are passing through coffee 
and rubber and areca.

410
00:15:36,166 --> 00:15:38,366
And they need it, it's habitat.

411
00:15:38,466 --> 00:15:41,233
They are thriving, not in 
spite of what people are doing,

412
00:15:41,333 --> 00:15:43,433
but because certain people 
are doing something.

413
00:15:43,533 --> 00:15:45,700
What are they doing, 
what are they doing?

414
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,600
It's a great question, 
it's a science question.

415
00:15:47,700 --> 00:15:49,933
You gotta go find out, 
it's an empirical question.

416
00:15:50,033 --> 00:15:52,100
More birds. 
Lots of 'em.

417
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,033
The Asian paradise flycatcher. 
Just fabulously beautiful birds.

418
00:15:56,133 --> 00:15:58,166
Are we seeing lots of species? 
Yes.

419
00:15:58,266 --> 00:16:00,500
Rubber is among the-- 
And this was quite a surprise,

420
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,233
we figured this 
would be a desert.

421
00:16:02,333 --> 00:16:03,800
We are seeing, in 
a highly productive

422
00:16:03,900 --> 00:16:05,733
industrial landscape, 
lots of species.

423
00:16:05,833 --> 00:16:08,900
And rubber also produced 
the highest number 
of migrant species.

424
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,533
So those flying birds 
that come down from Asia

425
00:16:11,633 --> 00:16:13,633
all the way to there, 
depending, in other words,

426
00:16:13,733 --> 00:16:17,333
at least on whatever habitat 
is being created artificially.

427
00:16:17,433 --> 00:16:19,233
And this is like science stuff.

428
00:16:19,333 --> 00:16:21,633
But the key, what these 
diagrams show you is that

429
00:16:21,733 --> 00:16:23,866
different types of birds like 
different types of landscapes.

430
00:16:23,966 --> 00:16:26,100
So if they eat fruits, 
they like certain places.

431
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,033
And if they like bugs, they 
like different kinds of places.

432
00:16:29,133 --> 00:16:30,900
The point here is these 
are guilds of birds.

433
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,700
This is biodiversity. 
This is conservation biology.

434
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,100
But usually, where do you 
do conservation biology

435
00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:37,766
if you're a 
conservation biologist?

436
00:16:37,866 --> 00:16:40,366
Where do you do it, if you're, 
like, a science person?

437
00:16:40,466 --> 00:16:42,466
A woman or man who studies 
conservation biology.

438
00:16:42,566 --> 00:16:43,966
Where do you go?

439
00:16:45,966 --> 00:16:47,666
Where do you think you go?

440
00:16:47,766 --> 00:16:49,133
You go to wilderness.

441
00:16:49,233 --> 00:16:52,066
You go to the last five places 
with a fence around them.

442
00:16:52,166 --> 00:16:54,500
What's crazy here is that we've 
got conservation biologists

443
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:56,633
out marching around in areas

444
00:16:56,733 --> 00:16:59,566
that are really 
fully anthropogenic,

445
00:16:59,666 --> 00:17:01,833
created by humanity.

446
00:17:01,933 --> 00:17:03,833
And then amphibian 
sampling, much harder.

447
00:17:03,933 --> 00:17:05,966
It has to be done in 
the middle of the night.

448
00:17:06,066 --> 00:17:07,866
It has to be done 
during the rainy season.

449
00:17:07,966 --> 00:17:09,700
And it has to be done 
in coffee plantations

450
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,566
that are like 45 degree slopes.

451
00:17:11,666 --> 00:17:14,566
And that is why we 
have graduate students.

452
00:17:14,666 --> 00:17:16,366
(audience laughter)

453
00:17:16,466 --> 00:17:18,466
These guys are really 
good, all right.

454
00:17:18,566 --> 00:17:21,000
And they are out there 
all night, all season,

455
00:17:21,100 --> 00:17:23,800
tromping around in the mud, 
and they're listening, right.

456
00:17:23,900 --> 00:17:26,300
They're identifying 
these species by ear

457
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,600
that when they find them, 
they turn over the leaf

458
00:17:28,700 --> 00:17:30,300
and they give us a 
photographic record

459
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:31,600
of the diversity they see.

460
00:17:31,700 --> 00:17:33,300
And what are we seeing?

461
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,333
We are seeing gliding frogs.

462
00:17:35,433 --> 00:17:40,900
We are seeing weirdly adapted 
endemic species.

463
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,700
We are seeing south Asia's 
smallest frog, right.

464
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,666
Teeming in these ponds, 
where, as it turns out,

465
00:17:47,766 --> 00:17:49,366
there's very few 
pesticides that are used.

466
00:17:49,466 --> 00:17:51,333
That turns out to be 
the big kicker here.

467
00:17:51,433 --> 00:17:53,666
We are seeing a frog here

468
00:17:53,766 --> 00:17:56,066
that was actually 
rediscovered in 2000.

469
00:17:56,166 --> 00:17:59,233
This was considered extinct, 
and we were finding them 
in large numbers.

470
00:17:59,333 --> 00:18:02,766
Where? 
Again, in a human-made world.

471
00:18:02,866 --> 00:18:04,533
And finally, this 
is our prized frog.

472
00:18:04,633 --> 00:18:06,633
This was new to science in 2008.

473
00:18:06,733 --> 00:18:09,133
We didn't discover it, but 
somebody else did in 2008,

474
00:18:09,233 --> 00:18:11,666
and it's critically 
endangered species.

475
00:18:11,766 --> 00:18:13,500
And we're finding it where?

476
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:14,900
Not out in the wilderness.

477
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,466
We're finding it in a 
sustainably managed landscape.

478
00:18:18,566 --> 00:18:19,933
All right?

479
00:18:20,033 --> 00:18:22,366
So, what are people doing 
that produces this effect?

480
00:18:22,466 --> 00:18:24,233
I'll tell you that the 
main thing that predicts

481
00:18:24,333 --> 00:18:27,200
whether you're going 
to have bird diversity is the 
diversity of your trees.

482
00:18:27,300 --> 00:18:29,633
Some places have much 
more thick canopy.

483
00:18:29,733 --> 00:18:31,100
Others have much 
more open canopy.

484
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,766
Both of these are coffee 
plantations, right.

485
00:18:33,866 --> 00:18:37,800
Some places have lots of 
different tree species.

486
00:18:37,900 --> 00:18:41,033
And some plantations have 
just basically a monoculture.

487
00:18:41,133 --> 00:18:43,466
That means one type 
of tree species.

488
00:18:43,566 --> 00:18:45,333
This, again, is silver oak 
imported by the British

489
00:18:45,433 --> 00:18:46,700
during the colonial era.

490
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:48,600
This is gonna give you 
more birds than this,

491
00:18:48,700 --> 00:18:50,366
according to our study, right.

492
00:18:50,466 --> 00:18:53,966
We think that's a statistically 
defensible claim, all right.

493
00:18:54,066 --> 00:18:56,800
And then whether you have these 
weird kind of ground covers

494
00:18:56,900 --> 00:18:58,833
also makes a big difference 
for frogs and stuff.

495
00:18:58,933 --> 00:19:01,966
So farmers are making decisions 
that are producing wildlife,

496
00:19:02,066 --> 00:19:03,833
but they're not doing 
it to produce wildlife.

497
00:19:03,933 --> 00:19:05,600
So why the heck 
are they doing it?

498
00:19:05,700 --> 00:19:07,000
I'm coming to the end here.

499
00:19:07,100 --> 00:19:11,366
To answer that, you 
can't count frogs.

500
00:19:11,466 --> 00:19:13,766
Sustainability science 
is integrated science.

501
00:19:13,866 --> 00:19:16,866
So that means we have to 
talk to actual people.

502
00:19:16,966 --> 00:19:19,466
And we talked to 1,000 
plantation owners

503
00:19:19,566 --> 00:19:21,866
and asked them why the 
heck they do what they do.

504
00:19:21,966 --> 00:19:23,833
And I can tell you the one thing

505
00:19:23,933 --> 00:19:27,133
that did not predict whether 
people had biodiversity or not

506
00:19:27,233 --> 00:19:29,400
is their education level.

507
00:19:29,500 --> 00:19:32,166
This guy has got a master's 
degree in agronomy.

508
00:19:32,266 --> 00:19:34,500
This guy does not have a 
grade school education.

509
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:35,800
And there's 
everything in between.

510
00:19:35,900 --> 00:19:38,133
And some of them are 
producing biodiversity

511
00:19:38,233 --> 00:19:39,566
and some of them aren't.

512
00:19:39,666 --> 00:19:41,533
And education doesn't 
seem to be the reason.

513
00:19:41,633 --> 00:19:43,500
So, what is going on?

514
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,900
Why, when, in particular,

515
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:47,666
are they opening up the canopy,

516
00:19:47,766 --> 00:19:50,233
which is bad for birds, or 
reducing the diversity of trees,

517
00:19:50,333 --> 00:19:52,400
which is bad for 
birds, for example?

518
00:19:52,500 --> 00:19:57,233
Our prediction was farm 
gate prices, the economy.

519
00:19:57,333 --> 00:19:59,400
So, again, sustainability 
science can't just be about

520
00:19:59,500 --> 00:20:00,933
the sociology of the farmers.

521
00:20:01,033 --> 00:20:02,800
And it can't just 
be about the birds.

522
00:20:02,900 --> 00:20:04,200
It can't be about the frogs.

523
00:20:04,300 --> 00:20:05,900
We'd have to actually 
understand the coffee economy.

524
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:07,033
What is this?

525
00:20:07,133 --> 00:20:08,566
This shows two different 
kinds of coffee.

526
00:20:08,666 --> 00:20:10,400
Arabica is the expensive 
coffee that you get

527
00:20:10,500 --> 00:20:12,000
when you're at Starbucks.

528
00:20:12,100 --> 00:20:14,933
Robusta coffee is the stuff 
that you get in instant coffee.

529
00:20:15,033 --> 00:20:16,933
There's a real 
quality difference.

530
00:20:17,033 --> 00:20:19,200
This stuff is easy to produce.

531
00:20:19,300 --> 00:20:20,933
And it's produced 
in large quantities.

532
00:20:21,033 --> 00:20:24,533
This is much fussier, requires 
more tree species diversity.

533
00:20:24,633 --> 00:20:25,933
It's harder to make.

534
00:20:26,033 --> 00:20:28,566
If the price of arabica 
coffee goes down far enough,

535
00:20:28,666 --> 00:20:30,666
this is what this 
diagram is telling you,

536
00:20:30,766 --> 00:20:32,633
it's in my interest 
as a coffee grower

537
00:20:32,733 --> 00:20:34,766
to just abandon arabica and say,

538
00:20:34,866 --> 00:20:37,400
"To hell with it, I'm 
gonna grow robusta."

539
00:20:37,500 --> 00:20:39,200
And what would that mean?

540
00:20:39,300 --> 00:20:42,033
Now I don't have to keep the 
diversity of tree species,

541
00:20:42,133 --> 00:20:44,333
now the canopy can open 
up, and what happens?

542
00:20:44,433 --> 00:20:46,266
My biodiversity goes down.

543
00:20:46,366 --> 00:20:48,100
So they're responding 
to markets.

544
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:49,633
That's the one thing.

545
00:20:49,733 --> 00:20:51,566
And the second 
thing they told us,

546
00:20:51,666 --> 00:20:54,300
and this is the key finding, 
and I'm almost done,

547
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,700
the second thing they told us is

548
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,700
workers these days 
are too damn lazy.

549
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,100
Back in my father's day

550
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:02,966
when my father owned 
this plantation,

551
00:21:03,066 --> 00:21:05,500
workers would work 12 hours 
without a cigarette break

552
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,133
and they wouldn't complain.

553
00:21:07,233 --> 00:21:09,633
And now, you know, they 
want cigarette breaks.

554
00:21:09,733 --> 00:21:12,466
They want electricity 
in their homes.

555
00:21:12,566 --> 00:21:14,233
They want healthcare, you know.

556
00:21:14,333 --> 00:21:16,733
They wanna be human 
beings, in other words.

557
00:21:16,833 --> 00:21:20,066
And they've got the power, 
for the first time in history,

558
00:21:20,166 --> 00:21:22,033
to walk away from 
those plantation owners

559
00:21:22,133 --> 00:21:25,000
if those plantation owners 
don't deliver the goods.

560
00:21:25,100 --> 00:21:27,333
That is, they can just walk,

561
00:21:27,433 --> 00:21:29,300
which means these 
workers are getting,

562
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,233
in other words, 
higher wages, right.

563
00:21:31,333 --> 00:21:34,200
There's a labor economy 
which determines

564
00:21:34,300 --> 00:21:36,600
whether or not you can 
have biodiversity of trees,

565
00:21:36,700 --> 00:21:38,533
which determines whether 
or not your plantation

566
00:21:38,633 --> 00:21:41,400
is, essentially, 
sustainable for the future.

567
00:21:41,500 --> 00:21:43,966
So this is my last question.

568
00:21:44,066 --> 00:21:46,233
How is it that workers today

569
00:21:46,333 --> 00:21:48,800
can walk away from a 
plantation in India,

570
00:21:48,900 --> 00:21:51,433
when they couldn't in 
the last generation?

571
00:21:51,533 --> 00:21:55,200
When those guys fathers 
ran the plantation?

572
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,633
How can they do it now that 
they couldn't do it before?

573
00:21:59,733 --> 00:22:02,200
It's a great mystery to me, 
and I was quite surprised

574
00:22:02,300 --> 00:22:04,033
when we learned what it was.

575
00:22:05,033 --> 00:22:06,766
Let's think about 
supply and demand.

576
00:22:06,866 --> 00:22:08,766
Think about economics.

577
00:22:08,866 --> 00:22:10,233
Got a guess?

578
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,300
How can they command 
a higher wage?

579
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,833
- [Audience] There's 
not as many of them?

580
00:22:15,933 --> 00:22:19,200
- There's not as many of them.

581
00:22:19,300 --> 00:22:21,100
In fact...

582
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,333
Labor, and this 
gives you a sense of

583
00:22:23,433 --> 00:22:25,133
what labor looks like 
on some of these farms,

584
00:22:25,233 --> 00:22:27,566
this guy will go up here 
in the morning at 8:00 AM.

585
00:22:27,666 --> 00:22:30,066
He'll harvest, and he won't 
come down until 3:00 PM.

586
00:22:30,166 --> 00:22:33,866
So, he just goes from tree to 
tree cutting down areca nut.

587
00:22:33,966 --> 00:22:36,600
And it cuts down, this 
guy bags it down here,

588
00:22:36,700 --> 00:22:40,033
and she works her tail off 
to kind of process it 
and then move it along.

589
00:22:40,133 --> 00:22:41,533
This is labor demanding stuff.

590
00:22:41,633 --> 00:22:43,433
This is back-breaking 
work, right?

591
00:22:43,533 --> 00:22:46,266
But look, through all of 
the southern part of India,

592
00:22:46,366 --> 00:22:47,633
which is where we are,

593
00:22:47,733 --> 00:22:50,166
the fertility rate, 
that's the average number

594
00:22:50,266 --> 00:22:52,500
of children that a woman 
has in their lifetime,

595
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,100
has fallen underneath two.

596
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,366
It's been underneath two 
for over a generation.

597
00:22:56,466 --> 00:22:59,366
If your fertility rate 
is under two on average,

598
00:22:59,466 --> 00:23:01,833
what's happening 
to the population?

599
00:23:01,933 --> 00:23:04,600
It's declining, it's declining.

600
00:23:04,700 --> 00:23:08,200
It's happening, it's 
happening in our lifetime.

601
00:23:08,300 --> 00:23:11,500
And it means we're running, 
stick with me on this,

602
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,333
we're running out 
of workers in India.

603
00:23:14,433 --> 00:23:16,766
This is the most 
counterintuitive finding 
I've ever seen in my life.

604
00:23:16,866 --> 00:23:19,066
Now, some of it is that 
they're moving to cities.

605
00:23:19,166 --> 00:23:20,700
Fast urbanization is going on.

606
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,500
Some of it is that they're 
going to the Gulf states

607
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,166
to take higher paying 
work in places like

608
00:23:26,266 --> 00:23:29,500
the United Arab Emirates and 
other places that need labor.

609
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,000
But some of it is, you 
know what, there's just not

610
00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:34,300
as many this generation 
as there was before.

611
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,633
Something big is 
happening, right.

612
00:23:37,733 --> 00:23:40,366
So let's walk through, 
as I conclude,

613
00:23:40,466 --> 00:23:42,500
what we kind of learned 
about sustainability.

614
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:44,833
If we're thinking about the 
future, preserving biodiversity,

615
00:23:44,933 --> 00:23:47,666
preserving water resources, 
using fewer chemicals, right.

616
00:23:47,766 --> 00:23:50,100
We're thinking about 
the future, all right.

617
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,266
That depends on 
the farm economics

618
00:23:52,366 --> 00:23:55,333
of people involved in a 
global capitalist economy,

619
00:23:55,433 --> 00:23:57,000
like the decisions they make.

620
00:23:57,100 --> 00:23:59,500
And those decisions 
are predicated

621
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,933
on things they can't control, 
like the price of coffee

622
00:24:03,033 --> 00:24:04,600
and the price of labor.

623
00:24:04,700 --> 00:24:06,866
And those things are 
in turn controlled by

624
00:24:06,966 --> 00:24:09,400
global forces that 
are so mysterious

625
00:24:09,500 --> 00:24:13,266
and almost optimistic in the 
case of population decline,

626
00:24:13,366 --> 00:24:16,000
that sustainability science,

627
00:24:16,100 --> 00:24:18,333
that is to predict or 
control the future,

628
00:24:18,433 --> 00:24:21,566
really means we think about 
some big fundamental drivers

629
00:24:21,666 --> 00:24:23,800
that drive a lot of what 
happens in the world.

630
00:24:23,900 --> 00:24:26,133
We can tell those farmers, 
"Don't do that, that's bad,"

631
00:24:26,233 --> 00:24:27,666
or, "Go do that, that's good."

632
00:24:27,766 --> 00:24:30,966
But a lot of their decisions 
are situated within a cycle

633
00:24:31,066 --> 00:24:34,833
of vast churning global drama.

634
00:24:34,933 --> 00:24:37,300
And part of it is the 
decline of population,

635
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,600
which I think is one of the 
most interesting things I've,

636
00:24:39,700 --> 00:24:41,233
and let me tell you somethin',

637
00:24:41,333 --> 00:24:44,700
I did not see it coming until 
it came up in the surveys

638
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,433
and until we looked 
at labor prices.

639
00:24:46,533 --> 00:24:48,366
And that's why you do science.

640
00:24:48,466 --> 00:24:50,666
'Cause you don't know 
before you start.

641
00:24:50,766 --> 00:24:53,900
And when you do, 
the light goes on.

642
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,300
And you say the future 
of the planet, right,

643
00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:00,566
rests in the hands of what 
those poor people want.

644
00:25:00,666 --> 00:25:02,800
Where they want to move.

645
00:25:02,900 --> 00:25:05,766
What they want to 
achieve in their lives.

646
00:25:05,866 --> 00:25:08,700
So, if there's a lesson for 
sustainability, if I close,

647
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,300
the lesson for sustainability 
is the future of the planet

648
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:16,766
sits in the hands of a large 
number of very poor people

649
00:25:16,866 --> 00:25:20,433
who want to have 
a dignified life.

650
00:25:20,533 --> 00:25:23,066
And the conditions under 
which they do or do not get it

651
00:25:23,166 --> 00:25:25,166
will determine how 
the economy functions.

652
00:25:25,266 --> 00:25:27,766
Which will determine how 
people perform on the land,

653
00:25:27,866 --> 00:25:29,933
what kinds of land uses, 
agriculture, mining,

654
00:25:30,033 --> 00:25:31,300
other kinds of practices.

655
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,733
And those things will determine 
the number of species,

656
00:25:34,833 --> 00:25:36,333
the rate of climate change.

657
00:25:36,433 --> 00:25:39,000
All the things that we 
think of as fundamental

658
00:25:39,100 --> 00:25:41,400
to sustaining the 
future are in the hands

659
00:25:41,500 --> 00:25:44,766
of the aspiring global poor.

660
00:25:44,866 --> 00:25:48,866
Which is either really good 
news or really bad news.

661
00:25:48,966 --> 00:25:53,200
And I'm glad I'm just 
young enough to be,

662
00:25:53,300 --> 00:25:55,633
I think I'm gonna be alive 
when population growth ends.

663
00:25:55,733 --> 00:25:57,900
And I wonder what 
it's gonna look like.

664
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,200
So those are my remarks, 
and I will take Q and A.

665
00:26:01,300 --> 00:26:02,733
- [Shakhashiri] Paul, thank you.

666
00:26:02,833 --> 00:26:04,166
(audience applause)

667
00:26:04,266 --> 00:26:06,066
- Is that okay?

668
00:26:06,166 --> 00:26:08,666
Was that all right for time? 
I tried to hustle it.

669
00:26:08,766 --> 00:26:10,200
- [Shakhashiri] 
We have a microphone.

670
00:26:10,300 --> 00:26:12,200
So we will take the 
microphone to the person

671
00:26:12,300 --> 00:26:13,900
who is going to make a comment.

672
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,566
And let me start by 
asking a question.

673
00:26:16,666 --> 00:26:17,966
- [Paul] Please.

674
00:26:18,066 --> 00:26:19,833
- [Shakhashiri] So the fertility 
rates that you showed

675
00:26:19,933 --> 00:26:21,933
were localized.

676
00:26:22,033 --> 00:26:23,733
- Well, they're by state.

677
00:26:23,833 --> 00:26:26,200
So the stats that you're 
seeing there are by state.

678
00:26:26,300 --> 00:26:28,566
So you can see the northern 
part of the country...

679
00:26:28,666 --> 00:26:32,300
- [Shakhashiri] Is different. 
- [Paul] ...where I worked for a 
long time has much higher rates.

680
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:33,733
Bahar, for example,

681
00:26:33,833 --> 00:26:37,200
which is just about the 
poorest state in the country.

682
00:26:37,300 --> 00:26:39,100
- [Shakhashiri] Right, 
so the rationale

683
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,466
for the people moving 
up north is what, why--

684
00:26:42,566 --> 00:26:44,033
- [Paul] Well, 
they're not moving.

685
00:26:44,133 --> 00:26:48,233
So just to be clear, 
the fertility rate 
is natural growth.

686
00:26:48,333 --> 00:26:50,333
So this is the number of 
kids people are having.

687
00:26:50,433 --> 00:26:52,733
That's regardless of migration.

688
00:26:52,833 --> 00:26:54,633
So, in other words, 
these numbers,

689
00:26:54,733 --> 00:26:56,733
when you go between 1.5 and two,

690
00:26:56,833 --> 00:26:58,800
which is the entire southern 
part of the country,

691
00:26:58,900 --> 00:27:03,466
that is fertility choices made 
by women and their families.

692
00:27:03,566 --> 00:27:06,866
People are not having two kids. 
Now, why is that?

693
00:27:06,966 --> 00:27:08,600
And there's a 
science for this too.

694
00:27:08,700 --> 00:27:12,100
It's because the 
opportunity costs are higher

695
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:13,800
to have kids,

696
00:27:13,900 --> 00:27:15,466
because you can be 
in the workforce.

697
00:27:15,566 --> 00:27:18,233
When women have the 
opportunity to work,

698
00:27:18,333 --> 00:27:19,566
they tend to have fewer kids.

699
00:27:19,666 --> 00:27:21,833
This is just how it 
is, it's a global fact.

700
00:27:21,933 --> 00:27:24,833
When women are educated, 
they tend to have fewer kids.

701
00:27:24,933 --> 00:27:26,133
It's a statistical,

702
00:27:26,233 --> 00:27:28,766
It's one of the cleanest, 
like, R-squareds

703
00:27:28,866 --> 00:27:31,366
that exists in national 
income accounting.

704
00:27:31,466 --> 00:27:33,933
Fertility rates go down 
with women's education

705
00:27:34,033 --> 00:27:35,933
even in poor countries.

706
00:27:36,033 --> 00:27:39,433
You educate women, you 
have the availability

707
00:27:39,533 --> 00:27:42,400
of rural healthcare so that 
there's lower infant mortality,

708
00:27:42,500 --> 00:27:44,933
so babies don't die, and 
you know what you get?

709
00:27:45,033 --> 00:27:46,466
Fewer kids.

710
00:27:46,566 --> 00:27:50,166
So that what you're seeing in 
India here is that the south,

711
00:27:50,266 --> 00:27:53,133
generally speaking, has 
better rural healthcare.

712
00:27:53,233 --> 00:27:56,300
It has higher rates of literacy

713
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,566
in the female population, 
more women in the workforce.

714
00:27:59,666 --> 00:28:02,233
Hell, if you go out in 
Kerala in the morning,

715
00:28:02,333 --> 00:28:04,833
let's say that you 
want to see elephants, 
which is awesome, by the way,

716
00:28:04,933 --> 00:28:06,700
you should go to Kerala 
to see elephants.

717
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,566
You get up in the morning and 
you say to your hotel person, 
"I want to go see elephants."

718
00:28:10,666 --> 00:28:12,833
Who is the hotel person? 
Who actually takes your order?

719
00:28:12,933 --> 00:28:14,100
It's a woman.

720
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,766
You go out, you get in 
a cab, probably a man,

721
00:28:16,866 --> 00:28:19,466
maybe a woman driver, but 
they get you out to the park,

722
00:28:19,566 --> 00:28:21,833
Somebody takes your 
money, who is it?

723
00:28:21,933 --> 00:28:24,500
It's a woman. 
You get in the boat.

724
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,966
They fire up the motor. 
This is in Kerala, right.

725
00:28:27,066 --> 00:28:29,600
And who's drivin' the boat?

726
00:28:29,700 --> 00:28:31,166
It's a woman.

727
00:28:31,266 --> 00:28:33,800
So you can go the whole day 
and see only women at work.

728
00:28:33,900 --> 00:28:36,666
Whereas, up in Rajasthan, where 
I worked for 20 years prior,

729
00:28:36,766 --> 00:28:40,333
you could go all day without 
seeing a woman, right.

730
00:28:40,433 --> 00:28:41,833
It is a remarkable difference.

731
00:28:41,933 --> 00:28:44,366
It's a natural 
experiment, right.

732
00:28:44,466 --> 00:28:46,133
This is sustainability science.

733
00:28:46,233 --> 00:28:48,166
What's happening 
is a revolution.

734
00:28:48,266 --> 00:28:49,966
A fertility revolution 
around the world.

735
00:28:50,066 --> 00:28:52,700
Indonesia, throughout 
all of Asia,

736
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,933
it already happened 
in Latin America,

737
00:28:55,033 --> 00:28:58,200
populations are declining 
in rates of growth.

738
00:28:59,266 --> 00:29:01,100
These populations are 
actually declining

739
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:02,433
in overall population.

740
00:29:02,533 --> 00:29:05,033
That's before we 
talk about migration.

741
00:29:05,133 --> 00:29:07,400
One of our big mysteries, 
to answer your question

742
00:29:07,500 --> 00:29:09,400
with our biggest 
question, is why the heck

743
00:29:09,500 --> 00:29:11,800
aren't people from Bahar 
rushing down in here

744
00:29:11,900 --> 00:29:13,866
to the coffee plantations 
to pick up the labor burden?

745
00:29:13,966 --> 00:29:16,066
We haven't figured that out yet.

746
00:29:16,166 --> 00:29:18,933
People don't want 
to pick coffee?

747
00:29:19,033 --> 00:29:20,566
Back-breaking work.

748
00:29:20,666 --> 00:29:22,033
And hard to automate.

749
00:29:22,133 --> 00:29:23,433
Next question, go ahead.

750
00:29:23,533 --> 00:29:24,733
- [Audience] I have a question.

751
00:29:24,833 --> 00:29:27,266
Can you give us an example,

752
00:29:27,366 --> 00:29:29,666
take us to a different 
part of the world here,

753
00:29:29,766 --> 00:29:32,533
during this biodiversity,

754
00:29:32,633 --> 00:29:34,633
but is not nearby

755
00:29:34,733 --> 00:29:37,666
very valuable 
agricultural product?

756
00:29:37,766 --> 00:29:39,333
And because of those factors,

757
00:29:39,433 --> 00:29:40,866
you don't have the 
same conditions

758
00:29:40,966 --> 00:29:43,633
where labor is so high priced.

759
00:29:43,733 --> 00:29:45,033
- [Paul] That's a great point.

760
00:29:45,133 --> 00:29:48,766
- [Audience] Because 
this is a very (mumbles).

761
00:29:48,866 --> 00:29:51,800
- Well, what I say about the 
example, it's a great point.

762
00:29:51,900 --> 00:29:54,333
So I concede half the point.

763
00:29:54,433 --> 00:29:55,633
The point is this, right:

764
00:29:55,733 --> 00:29:57,966
this is a very specific 
kind of economy.

765
00:29:58,066 --> 00:30:00,066
This is agroforestry.

766
00:30:00,166 --> 00:30:02,500
There is about a hundred 
or a thousand times

767
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,400
as much land under 
agroforestry around the world

768
00:30:06,500 --> 00:30:08,533
than there is in national parks.

769
00:30:08,633 --> 00:30:10,000
That's my answer.

770
00:30:10,100 --> 00:30:12,500
In other words, you want 
to save biodiversity,

771
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,466
after parks, your 
next best shot?

772
00:30:15,566 --> 00:30:18,433
Agroforestry and you 
find it in west Africa

773
00:30:18,533 --> 00:30:20,400
and you find it in 
southeast Africa

774
00:30:20,500 --> 00:30:22,333
and you find it 
throughout Latin America

775
00:30:22,433 --> 00:30:24,566
and you find it throughout 
Central America.

776
00:30:24,666 --> 00:30:26,866
You find it throughout 
parts of the Amazon.

777
00:30:26,966 --> 00:30:31,400
In other words, right, 
it's the frontier.

778
00:30:31,500 --> 00:30:33,833
It's a godsend, right.

779
00:30:33,933 --> 00:30:35,233
Is it everywhere?

780
00:30:35,333 --> 00:30:38,166
Is an Iowa cornfield as 
biodiverse as these places?

781
00:30:38,266 --> 00:30:39,800
No, of course not.

782
00:30:39,900 --> 00:30:42,300
But how much of 
this is out there?

783
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,500
So much, so much.

784
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,000
And if you consider 
how much money

785
00:30:46,100 --> 00:30:50,033
and time is put into 
protected areas just in India,

786
00:30:50,133 --> 00:30:51,933
to say nothing of China,

787
00:30:52,033 --> 00:30:54,433
when it could actually be 
put in trying to maintain

788
00:30:54,533 --> 00:30:56,866
and support biodiversity 
in working landscapes

789
00:30:56,966 --> 00:30:59,366
that are actually 
generating an income,

790
00:30:59,466 --> 00:31:01,633
why, it seems like 
money poorly spent.

791
00:31:01,733 --> 00:31:04,500
So my point here is not 
to say that these are,

792
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,300
it depends on how 
you look at it.

793
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,233
The glass is quite half full. 
There's a lot of agroforest.

794
00:31:09,333 --> 00:31:10,733
Now, if we go beyond agroforest,

795
00:31:10,833 --> 00:31:12,033
because that's 
what this is about

796
00:31:12,133 --> 00:31:13,466
and this is what 
we're publishing on,

797
00:31:13,566 --> 00:31:16,566
there's also biodiversity 
to be found in cities.

798
00:31:16,666 --> 00:31:18,333
There's biodiversity to be found

799
00:31:18,433 --> 00:31:21,100
even at the edges 
of Iowa cornfields.

800
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,066
In the corners in central 
pivot agriculture,

801
00:31:24,166 --> 00:31:26,933
a huge amount of work is 
going in now to maintaining

802
00:31:27,033 --> 00:31:29,333
or restoring pollinators, right.

803
00:31:29,433 --> 00:31:33,866
The interstices of 
the Anthropocene, 
those little spaces

804
00:31:33,966 --> 00:31:37,366
between what is clearly, 
like, pounded by humans

805
00:31:37,466 --> 00:31:40,433
and what is wild, which 
is hardly anything left,

806
00:31:40,533 --> 00:31:43,966
those spaces in between 
which are funky and lively

807
00:31:44,066 --> 00:31:47,133
and diverse but obviously 
influenced by people,

808
00:31:47,233 --> 00:31:49,666
those are countless, 
that's the future.

809
00:31:49,766 --> 00:31:51,033
That's the Earth.

810
00:31:51,133 --> 00:31:52,833
When there's 10,000,000,000 
people on the Earth,

811
00:31:52,933 --> 00:31:55,433
it is gonna be a 
lightly used planet.

812
00:31:55,533 --> 00:31:57,033
Like it or not.

813
00:31:57,133 --> 00:31:58,933
I'd like to 
think we'd all go back

814
00:31:59,033 --> 00:32:01,200
to 2,000,000,000 
people, but we're not.

815
00:32:01,300 --> 00:32:03,066
But we're going to 
stop growing around 10.

816
00:32:03,166 --> 00:32:05,000
for all the reasons 
I just showed you.

817
00:32:05,100 --> 00:32:06,700
(someone speaks off mic)

818
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,433
Yeah, well, it depends 
on who you cite.

819
00:32:10,533 --> 00:32:13,966
And demographers, you know, are 
pretty good at what they do,

820
00:32:14,066 --> 00:32:17,033
but prediction is really 
difficult, as they say famously,

821
00:32:17,133 --> 00:32:19,500
especially when it 
comes to the future.

822
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,666
So, who is that who said that? 
Somebody smart.

823
00:32:21,766 --> 00:32:23,533
I want to think it's Yogi Berra,

824
00:32:23,633 --> 00:32:25,833
but I think it was 
actually a scientist.

825
00:32:25,933 --> 00:32:27,133
Anyway.

826
00:32:27,233 --> 00:32:28,600
Niels Bohr, actually, I think.

827
00:32:28,700 --> 00:32:30,100
Go ahead.

828
00:32:31,233 --> 00:32:34,433
- [Audience] Do land access 
issues impact the study?

829
00:32:34,533 --> 00:32:36,566
- [Paul] Do they what? 
I'm sorry.

830
00:32:36,666 --> 00:32:39,233
- [Audience] Do land access 
issues impact the study?

831
00:32:39,333 --> 00:32:42,133
- So, land change in this area, 
and that's really important

832
00:32:42,233 --> 00:32:44,900
in Latin America, you 
know, in this area,

833
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,900
by the way, great question, 
and we were curious ourselves,

834
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,633
So what we've done 
is we've gone back

835
00:32:49,733 --> 00:32:52,366
and taken a look at how 
much land has changed hands,

836
00:32:52,466 --> 00:32:53,766
whether there's 
consolidation, in other words,

837
00:32:53,866 --> 00:32:56,466
stuff like that, over 
the last 30 years,

838
00:32:56,566 --> 00:32:57,766
and there's none.

839
00:32:57,866 --> 00:32:59,533
If you got your 
hands on this land

840
00:32:59,633 --> 00:33:01,200
right when the British left,

841
00:33:01,300 --> 00:33:03,433
let's say you had one 
hectare, I mean a tiny area,

842
00:33:03,533 --> 00:33:06,000
two hectares, you 
didn't let it go.

843
00:33:06,100 --> 00:33:07,466
You didn't let it go.

844
00:33:07,566 --> 00:33:09,233
Somebody in the family is 
still managing that land.

845
00:33:09,333 --> 00:33:11,500
So what I would say is that 
everybody who had access

846
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:13,733
to the land continues to 
have access to the land.

847
00:33:13,833 --> 00:33:16,266
There hasn't been a lot of 
putting people off the land.

848
00:33:16,366 --> 00:33:18,266
That is not true in West Africa.

849
00:33:18,366 --> 00:33:19,733
That's not true 
in Latin America.

850
00:33:19,833 --> 00:33:24,033
That would become a much bigger 
deal in a different context.

851
00:33:24,133 --> 00:33:25,566
But the remarkable 
thing about this place

852
00:33:25,666 --> 00:33:28,233
is how stable it is in 
terms of land holdings.

853
00:33:28,333 --> 00:33:30,866
And it has to do with their 
ability to make a living

854
00:33:30,966 --> 00:33:32,466
and to diversify 
their livelihoods.

855
00:33:32,566 --> 00:33:34,666
I'll give you a 
good case example.

856
00:33:34,766 --> 00:33:37,900
Almost everybody here keeps 
what's called a homestay,

857
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:39,733
which basically is 
a bed and breakfast.

858
00:33:39,833 --> 00:33:42,466
You can be a little owner or you 
can be a big plantation owner,

859
00:33:42,566 --> 00:33:44,300
but you're always gonna 
make a few more bucks

860
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,366
if somebody comes out, 
sits in that hammock,

861
00:33:46,466 --> 00:33:48,500
has that glass of wine, 
photographs those birds.

862
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,666
That's worth as much 
as rubber, right?

863
00:33:50,766 --> 00:33:52,433
That's worth as much as coffee.

864
00:33:52,533 --> 00:33:54,333
Who were all the people 
sitting in those hammocks?

865
00:33:54,433 --> 00:33:56,366
Let's just get into a 
little more sustainability.

866
00:33:56,466 --> 00:33:58,833
It doesn't answer your 
question, but I'm riffin' here.

867
00:33:58,933 --> 00:34:02,133
Who sits in those hammocks? 
Who are the tourists?

868
00:34:02,233 --> 00:34:05,300
- [Audience] Yeah, I 
understand that one of

869
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:10,200
the biggest forces going on 
in the world is urbanization.

870
00:34:10,300 --> 00:34:13,766
And I'm not quite getting how

871
00:34:13,866 --> 00:34:16,066
that force toward cities

872
00:34:16,166 --> 00:34:19,033
is going to deal 
with sustainability.

873
00:34:19,133 --> 00:34:20,300
- Great question.

874
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,300
So, in this context, and 
I'll be quite specific about,

875
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:23,966
I'm wanna say 
something very specific

876
00:34:24,066 --> 00:34:25,533
and I'm wanna say 
something very general,

877
00:34:25,633 --> 00:34:27,066
because it's the most 
important question.

878
00:34:27,166 --> 00:34:30,900
In this case, urbanization 
rate in Karnataka is about 35%.

879
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:32,600
So, in other words, 
35% of the population

880
00:34:32,700 --> 00:34:34,400
lives in something 
defined as a city,

881
00:34:34,500 --> 00:34:37,300
which means a lot of people 
still live out on the landscape.

882
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,833
And, in fact, if we get to 
about 10,000,000,000 people,

883
00:34:39,933 --> 00:34:41,866
you can do this on the 
back of an envelope,

884
00:34:41,966 --> 00:34:43,100
and you've got about,

885
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,733
let's say we do 80% 
urbanization globally,

886
00:34:46,833 --> 00:34:49,833
which would be optimistic, 
I mean, if you like cities.

887
00:34:49,933 --> 00:34:52,600
That's a high rate, but 
let's say you get to 80%.

888
00:34:52,700 --> 00:34:55,133
The same number of people 
living in rural areas

889
00:34:55,233 --> 00:34:57,200
now will be living 
in rural areas then,

890
00:34:57,300 --> 00:34:59,533
because it's 20% of 
a much larger number.

891
00:34:59,633 --> 00:35:02,366
So, that's the first answer 
to the question is that

892
00:35:02,466 --> 00:35:06,133
what happens in the countryside 
really still matters, right.

893
00:35:06,233 --> 00:35:08,733
There is a more general 
point, and that's this:

894
00:35:08,833 --> 00:35:11,000
much of the income that's 
coming in onto these landscapes

895
00:35:11,100 --> 00:35:13,566
that allows them 
to be sustainable, 
when they can be sustainable,

896
00:35:13,666 --> 00:35:15,333
is coming, as I 
mentioned, from tourists.

897
00:35:15,433 --> 00:35:18,066
Who are those tourists, 
to answer my own question?

898
00:35:18,166 --> 00:35:20,500
They are middle class Indians

899
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,733
working in the 
software industry.

900
00:35:22,833 --> 00:35:25,400
Urbanization has provided 
an economic engine

901
00:35:25,500 --> 00:35:28,166
which has flown money 
back to the countryside,

902
00:35:28,266 --> 00:35:29,733
which has allowed 
certain kinds of choices

903
00:35:29,833 --> 00:35:31,200
which can be sustainable.

904
00:35:31,300 --> 00:35:34,133
And, if I can make a more 
abstract global argument,

905
00:35:34,233 --> 00:35:38,566
I think it's pretty clear 
that an 80% urbanization rate

906
00:35:38,666 --> 00:35:41,000
is good for global 
sustainability.

907
00:35:41,100 --> 00:35:43,733
Cities are more efficient 
users of energy.

908
00:35:43,833 --> 00:35:45,633
Not suburban areas.

909
00:35:45,733 --> 00:35:47,166
Cities, real cities.

910
00:35:47,266 --> 00:35:51,733
Bangalore, New York, Chengdu.

911
00:35:51,833 --> 00:35:54,266
They are more efficient 
users of energy.

912
00:35:54,366 --> 00:35:58,433
They are cosmopolitan and 
filled with innovation.

913
00:35:58,533 --> 00:36:01,566
They allow transportation 
that is not,

914
00:36:01,666 --> 00:36:03,533
let's say, driving 
around in a car.

915
00:36:03,633 --> 00:36:07,766
Urbanization is the best 
sustainability news we've got.

916
00:36:07,866 --> 00:36:10,966
By putting 10,000,000,000 
people in the countryside,

917
00:36:11,066 --> 00:36:13,100
would be very worrisome.

918
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,966
But if you had 8,000,000,000 
of them in a city,

919
00:36:16,066 --> 00:36:18,633
and you had production going 
on and some kind of balance

920
00:36:18,733 --> 00:36:21,266
and some protected areas 
and some coffee plantations,

921
00:36:21,366 --> 00:36:23,400
the future doesn't 
have to be awful.

922
00:36:23,500 --> 00:36:26,800
It doesn't have to be Soylent 
Green, right. (chuckles)

923
00:36:26,900 --> 00:36:29,666
You know, urbanization 
can be good.

924
00:36:29,766 --> 00:36:31,600
Bangalore is a really 
interesting case.

925
00:36:31,700 --> 00:36:34,133
That's been a very 
effectively urbanized,

926
00:36:34,233 --> 00:36:36,100
well, it's not a 
very well run city.

927
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:37,933
I'm going to be on TV, right?

928
00:36:38,033 --> 00:36:39,866
Bangalore is a 
very well run city.

929
00:36:39,966 --> 00:36:41,166
(audience laughter)

930
00:36:41,266 --> 00:36:44,533
I have to be invited back. 
It's not a very well run city.

931
00:36:44,633 --> 00:36:47,100
It's not especially sustainable, 
but it certainly could be.

932
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,500
So urbanization is our 
biggest opportunity.

933
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:50,933
I think liveable 
cities is probably

934
00:36:51,033 --> 00:36:53,833
the most important 
part of sustainability.

935
00:36:53,933 --> 00:36:55,233
Having said that,

936
00:36:55,333 --> 00:36:57,266
these species are not 
going to live in cities.

937
00:36:57,366 --> 00:37:00,000
Those frogs, those birds, they 
need something like nature.

938
00:37:00,100 --> 00:37:01,800
And if the nature 
happens to be coffee

939
00:37:01,900 --> 00:37:03,966
that is consumed by urban people

940
00:37:04,066 --> 00:37:06,900
who pump the money back 
into the rural economy

941
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,233
in something that 
looks like a tradeoff,

942
00:37:09,333 --> 00:37:13,233
you can sustain rural 
biodiversity and 
urban biodiversity.

943
00:37:13,333 --> 00:37:14,766
Foxes and--

944
00:37:14,866 --> 00:37:18,200
There's foxes runnin' 
through my yard, crazy.

945
00:37:18,300 --> 00:37:20,966
So my answer is: urbanization 
has been a boogieman

946
00:37:21,066 --> 00:37:23,433
for the environmental 
movement since 1965,

947
00:37:23,533 --> 00:37:25,033
and it's a mistake.

948
00:37:25,133 --> 00:37:28,433
Cities are part of 
the sustainability 
ticket to the future.

949
00:37:28,533 --> 00:37:30,066
Both because of their efficiency

950
00:37:30,166 --> 00:37:32,700
and because of their 
relationship to the 
countryside, right.

951
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,400
Because they flow resources 
back to working people

952
00:37:35,500 --> 00:37:37,066
that allow them to 
maintain landscapes

953
00:37:37,166 --> 00:37:40,233
that are not totally 
destroyed, right.

954
00:37:40,333 --> 00:37:42,033
You need a diverse economy.

955
00:37:42,133 --> 00:37:43,766
Does that-- 
- [Audience] Yes, thank you.

956
00:37:43,866 --> 00:37:46,000
- [Paul] Yeah, it's a great, 
it's an important question.

957
00:37:46,100 --> 00:37:47,333
I'm not an urbanist,

958
00:37:47,433 --> 00:37:49,533
so that's why you're not 
seeing enough cities.

959
00:37:49,633 --> 00:37:51,400
We'll bring one in.

960
00:37:51,500 --> 00:37:53,033
I have colleagues.

961
00:37:53,966 --> 00:37:56,200
Way smarter than me. 
Anything else?

962
00:37:56,300 --> 00:37:58,533
- [Shakhashiri] Yeah, I 
have another question.

963
00:37:58,633 --> 00:37:59,866
We have time.

964
00:37:59,966 --> 00:38:02,266
- [Paul] That's why I try to 
talk fast.

965
00:38:02,366 --> 00:38:04,233
- [Shakhashiri] We 
have lots of time.

966
00:38:04,333 --> 00:38:06,466
I'm beginning to see your 
point about the effect

967
00:38:06,566 --> 00:38:09,200
locally in the 
southern part of India.

968
00:38:09,300 --> 00:38:10,800
I'm beginning to see that point.

969
00:38:10,900 --> 00:38:13,800
- [Paul] Indonesia, 
Bangladesh is falling now.

970
00:38:13,900 --> 00:38:15,633
- [Shakhashiri] Yeah? 
- [Paul] Oh, yeah.

971
00:38:15,733 --> 00:38:18,600
- [Shakhashiri] What I'm 
trying to think about is...

972
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:21,866
What do those of us who are

973
00:38:21,966 --> 00:38:24,633
enjoying this 
expensive coffee.

974
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:27,066
- [Paul] Citizenship.

975
00:38:27,166 --> 00:38:28,966
- [Shakhashiri] Yeah. 
- [Paul] That's your question.

976
00:38:29,066 --> 00:38:30,500
- [Shakhashiri] What do,

977
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,833
other than continuing to 
buy this expensive coffee,

978
00:38:33,933 --> 00:38:37,166
hopefully some of the 
money will go back there,

979
00:38:37,266 --> 00:38:38,533
what, is that it?

980
00:38:38,633 --> 00:38:40,900
- Well, I think there's 
several things, right?

981
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:42,633
So I think that's true.

982
00:38:42,733 --> 00:38:46,633
So one of the things that 
might work in this case, right,

983
00:38:46,733 --> 00:38:48,866
has to do with

984
00:38:48,966 --> 00:38:51,600
getting rents on the 
coffee, so to speak,

985
00:38:51,700 --> 00:38:55,966
land rents that can pay for the 
environmental externalities.

986
00:38:56,066 --> 00:38:58,133
Which means getting more money 
for your coffee, basically.

987
00:38:58,233 --> 00:39:00,433
And then agreeing 
to grow it in a way

988
00:39:00,533 --> 00:39:01,933
that produces frogs, right?

989
00:39:02,033 --> 00:39:04,600
That's like shade-grown 
coffee, fair trade coffee,

990
00:39:04,700 --> 00:39:07,600
all those markets that 
wealthy Americans pay for

991
00:39:07,700 --> 00:39:09,300
even though they 
are not quite sure

992
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,233
what they're getting for 
their money.

993
00:39:11,333 --> 00:39:12,400
I mean, come on.

994
00:39:12,500 --> 00:39:14,000
Do you really know 
what you're getting

995
00:39:14,100 --> 00:39:15,466
when you're getting 
fair trade coffee?

996
00:39:15,566 --> 00:39:16,900
No, you don't.

997
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:18,733
But that's one part of it, 
is responsible consumption.

998
00:39:18,833 --> 00:39:20,066
I don't favor that.

999
00:39:20,166 --> 00:39:21,866
I think what we're 
really talking about here

1000
00:39:21,966 --> 00:39:24,500
is about making and 
establishing policy.

1001
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,100
Powerful people, wealthy 
people, should establish policy

1002
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:28,700
that produce the effects 
that are desired,

1003
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,033
which means rural 
healthcare, you know.

1004
00:39:32,133 --> 00:39:34,266
People in Uttar Pradesh are 
not making the kinds of demands

1005
00:39:34,366 --> 00:39:36,533
on rural healthcare 
that they could, right?

1006
00:39:36,633 --> 00:39:39,000
Rural healthcare drives 
down the fertility rate.

1007
00:39:39,100 --> 00:39:40,766
Rural healthcare keeps 
people on the land

1008
00:39:40,866 --> 00:39:42,566
in a way that is 
more sustainable.

1009
00:39:42,666 --> 00:39:44,966
It lowers costs, household 
costs that can be

1010
00:39:45,066 --> 00:39:47,700
put back into a farm 
operation that's sustainable.

1011
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,866
There are policy measures that 
are pretty common sensical.

1012
00:39:51,966 --> 00:39:53,966
Better healthcare, 
better education.

1013
00:39:54,066 --> 00:39:56,200
In other words, if you're 
an environmentalist,

1014
00:39:56,300 --> 00:39:59,400
let's put it this way, 
you should spend less time

1015
00:39:59,500 --> 00:40:01,566
trying to save tigers 
in those tiny parks,

1016
00:40:01,666 --> 00:40:03,066
there, I've said it,

1017
00:40:03,166 --> 00:40:05,000
and more time building 
health clinics.

1018
00:40:05,100 --> 00:40:06,433
That's what I would say.

1019
00:40:06,533 --> 00:40:09,766
It's about a certain low 
number of dollars that we have

1020
00:40:09,866 --> 00:40:12,000
as people who were concerned 
about the sustainable future

1021
00:40:12,100 --> 00:40:15,400
of the Earth and where 
we put those few chips,

1022
00:40:15,500 --> 00:40:17,900
and I think they should 
be put on the rural poor.

1023
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,166
I think that's where your 
best bet is, you know?

1024
00:40:21,266 --> 00:40:24,500
And the problem is, and now 
I'll be bold, historically,

1025
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,033
and people who do describe 
themselves as environmentalists,

1026
00:40:27,133 --> 00:40:29,200
are terrified of the rural poor.

1027
00:40:30,033 --> 00:40:32,233
They're gonna want TVs like me.

1028
00:40:32,333 --> 00:40:33,933
They're gonna want 
air conditioning.

1029
00:40:34,033 --> 00:40:35,300
They're gonna want 
all these things,

1030
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:37,200
and they're going to 
destroy the Earth.

1031
00:40:37,300 --> 00:40:39,766
It's white people scared 
of the brown masses.

1032
00:40:39,866 --> 00:40:42,733
And I am saying that you 
invest in those people.

1033
00:40:42,833 --> 00:40:45,666
You give them electricity, 
you work with them

1034
00:40:45,766 --> 00:40:48,966
to provide the kind of 
energy that's not coal,

1035
00:40:49,066 --> 00:40:50,966
and you will get a 
sustainable future.

1036
00:40:51,066 --> 00:40:52,833
Because these folks 
are not going away,

1037
00:40:52,933 --> 00:40:55,233
and they have the right 
to make those demands.

1038
00:40:55,333 --> 00:40:58,033
And that's not anathema 
to a sustainable future

1039
00:40:58,133 --> 00:41:00,400
to work with the rural poor.

1040
00:41:00,500 --> 00:41:04,666
And Malthus, if it was ever 
true, it's coming to an end.

1041
00:41:04,766 --> 00:41:07,533
I'm an anti-Malthusian on 
this, we differ a little bit.

1042
00:41:07,633 --> 00:41:09,666
But I will say that even 
if you're a Malthusian,

1043
00:41:09,766 --> 00:41:11,266
look at these numbers.

1044
00:41:11,366 --> 00:41:14,033
The world is changing even now.

1045
00:41:14,133 --> 00:41:15,700
It's good news.

1046
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:18,466
- [Shakhashiri] I like good 
news; I'm not a gloom 
and doom person.

1047
00:41:18,566 --> 00:41:19,833
(Paul and audience laugh)

1048
00:41:19,933 --> 00:41:23,466
But I want to learn

1049
00:41:23,566 --> 00:41:28,366
what responsible 
action should be taken,

1050
00:41:28,466 --> 00:41:30,366
not only individually, 
but collectively.

1051
00:41:30,466 --> 00:41:32,000
- We should be thinking 
about development.

1052
00:41:32,100 --> 00:41:33,733
And we should be thinking 
about urbanization.

1053
00:41:33,833 --> 00:41:35,500
The question that came from 
up here on urbanization

1054
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,133
was really crucial.

1055
00:41:37,233 --> 00:41:38,600
- [Audience] Okay.

1056
00:41:38,700 --> 00:41:41,100
It looks like on your map 
there about half of India,

1057
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,000
half of it, the area is...

1058
00:41:46,133 --> 00:41:52,266
Through world population 
increase, what

1059
00:41:52,366 --> 00:41:56,233
fraction of the population 
of India is in--

1060
00:41:56,333 --> 00:41:57,933
- [Paul] Is within that? 
- [Audience] Yes.

1061
00:41:58,033 --> 00:41:59,033
- Right.

1062
00:41:59,133 --> 00:42:00,866
So the highest 
density populations

1063
00:42:00,966 --> 00:42:03,666
and the most people fall 
in the Gangetic Plain

1064
00:42:03,766 --> 00:42:05,133
where some of the 
highest growth is.

1065
00:42:05,233 --> 00:42:07,066
So there's no question 
that this is growth

1066
00:42:07,166 --> 00:42:09,933
on a higher number than 
this is lack of growth

1067
00:42:10,033 --> 00:42:11,666
on a lower number.

1068
00:42:11,766 --> 00:42:14,666
So, in other words, this is 
a declining number over time,

1069
00:42:14,766 --> 00:42:16,200
but it's a smaller number.

1070
00:42:16,300 --> 00:42:17,600
It's a direct answer 
to your question.

1071
00:42:17,700 --> 00:42:19,933
It's a smaller number 
than what we see up here.

1072
00:42:20,033 --> 00:42:21,600
But this is gonna tip too.

1073
00:42:21,700 --> 00:42:23,200
Like, this is coming.

1074
00:42:23,300 --> 00:42:27,500
These states weren't negative 
growth states 20 years ago.

1075
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,733
Kerala maybe, none of the rest. 
It's all new.

1076
00:42:30,833 --> 00:42:32,400
So it's just a 
question of how quickly

1077
00:42:32,500 --> 00:42:34,433
these things transition, 
which is why we can't pick

1078
00:42:34,533 --> 00:42:36,800
whether it's 9,000,000,000 
or 10,000,000,000, right.

1079
00:42:36,900 --> 00:42:39,233
That's why it's hard to 
come up with that number.

1080
00:42:39,333 --> 00:42:41,500
Because we don't know how 
fast states in the north

1081
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:43,300
are gonna behave like 
states in the south.

1082
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,766
And that's true in Indonesia. 
It's true in Malaysia.

1083
00:42:45,866 --> 00:42:49,333
Hell, in Singapore, the 
government has a whole campaign

1084
00:42:49,433 --> 00:42:53,200
co-sponsored by a candy 
company to get people

1085
00:42:53,300 --> 00:42:56,966
on their Independence 
National Night

1086
00:42:57,066 --> 00:42:59,566
to go get with it.

1087
00:42:59,666 --> 00:43:01,500
You see what I'm saying?

1088
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:03,433
They have advertisements 
on television.

1089
00:43:03,533 --> 00:43:07,600
They are worried that their 
population is getting too small.

1090
00:43:09,033 --> 00:43:10,333
Isn't that crazy?

1091
00:43:11,933 --> 00:43:13,566
The world's crazy.

1092
00:43:13,666 --> 00:43:15,366
Stuff is happening around us

1093
00:43:15,466 --> 00:43:18,966
that 1973 just is not ready for.

1094
00:43:19,066 --> 00:43:20,700
- [Audience] I have 
another question.

1095
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:22,233
- [Paul] Please.

1096
00:43:23,633 --> 00:43:28,466
- [Audience] Could you tell 
us about some more details

1097
00:43:28,566 --> 00:43:32,233
about farmers who came 
to the realization

1098
00:43:32,333 --> 00:43:36,266
that biodiversity was 
very good for their crops,

1099
00:43:36,366 --> 00:43:39,000
and how that 
information is shared

1100
00:43:39,100 --> 00:43:42,900
from one part of an 
agriculture area of the world

1101
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:44,900
to another part...?

1102
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:46,333
- Great question.

1103
00:43:46,433 --> 00:43:48,866
So I'm gonna answer the 
second question first.

1104
00:43:48,966 --> 00:43:50,366
I'll give you a 
grounded example.

1105
00:43:50,466 --> 00:43:52,266
There's something called 
the honeybee network,

1106
00:43:52,366 --> 00:43:55,300
and the honeybee network is 
south-south technology transfer.

1107
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,400
So they don't bother talking 
to Americans or Europeans.

1108
00:43:58,500 --> 00:43:59,800
They just talk to each other.

1109
00:43:59,900 --> 00:44:02,533
So, East Africans are 
touring farms in Gujarat,

1110
00:44:02,633 --> 00:44:07,233
and Gujaratis are visiting 
coffee farms in Central America.

1111
00:44:07,333 --> 00:44:09,400
So there are networks globally,

1112
00:44:09,500 --> 00:44:10,900
and information technology has,

1113
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:12,733
I think, aided this enormously,

1114
00:44:12,833 --> 00:44:14,633
which is about sharing 
best practices,

1115
00:44:14,733 --> 00:44:16,566
coming up with clever solutions,

1116
00:44:16,666 --> 00:44:18,833
learning about how to create 
cooperatives, for example,

1117
00:44:18,933 --> 00:44:20,466
and other kinds of 
institutional solutions.

1118
00:44:20,566 --> 00:44:24,133
So, there's a lot of 
south-south knowledge transfer.

1119
00:44:24,233 --> 00:44:26,033
But to answer the 
first question,

1120
00:44:26,133 --> 00:44:27,900
none of these people 
think that biodiversity

1121
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,900
is good for them, except 
maybe because of tourism.

1122
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,933
For the most part, 
what they are doing

1123
00:44:33,033 --> 00:44:36,000
is simply responding to 
labor and crop markets.

1124
00:44:36,100 --> 00:44:37,966
And when labor and the 
crop markets are right

1125
00:44:38,066 --> 00:44:39,433
based on their land size,

1126
00:44:39,533 --> 00:44:44,266
they accidentally make 
biodiversity friendly decisions.

1127
00:44:44,366 --> 00:44:45,933
So, if we're interested,

1128
00:44:46,033 --> 00:44:47,566
this is another lesson 
about sustainability.

1129
00:44:47,666 --> 00:44:50,466
Waiting for everybody to agree 
with you to save the Earth

1130
00:44:50,566 --> 00:44:52,233
is a huge waste of time. 
(audience laughter)

1131
00:44:52,333 --> 00:44:53,833
It makes much more sense to say

1132
00:44:53,933 --> 00:44:56,633
if this person is making 
decisions that produce

1133
00:44:56,733 --> 00:44:59,633
a diversity of trees 
which produce the 
biodiversity we want,

1134
00:44:59,733 --> 00:45:02,066
then we should either 
subsidize them to do it

1135
00:45:02,166 --> 00:45:06,066
or figure out how to kind 
of mess with the economy

1136
00:45:06,166 --> 00:45:08,300
in a way that kind 
of encourages that.

1137
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:09,633
It takes some tinkering.

1138
00:45:09,733 --> 00:45:11,133
You get your hands 
on the levers.

1139
00:45:11,233 --> 00:45:13,166
One of the tests 
we're running now is,

1140
00:45:13,266 --> 00:45:16,300
are farmers who are in 
cooperatives more likely

1141
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,966
to have tree diversity for 
whatever economic reasons,

1142
00:45:19,066 --> 00:45:20,566
and therefore bird diversity?

1143
00:45:20,666 --> 00:45:23,366
And if that's true, then 
what you would want to do

1144
00:45:23,466 --> 00:45:25,800
as an environmental 
citizen is encourage,

1145
00:45:25,900 --> 00:45:27,800
subsidize or work 
with cooperatives.

1146
00:45:27,900 --> 00:45:29,966
But we don't know, that's 
still an empirical question.

1147
00:45:30,066 --> 00:45:32,466
That test is still being run. 
So there's two answers.

1148
00:45:32,566 --> 00:45:36,266
One is south-south learning 
is vibrant right now.

1149
00:45:36,366 --> 00:45:37,666
And I would say,

1150
00:45:37,766 --> 00:45:39,633
coming back to the urban 
question on sustainability,

1151
00:45:39,733 --> 00:45:42,300
the greatest network of 
learners right now are mayors.

1152
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,166
Which has nothing to 
do with my coffee case.

1153
00:45:44,266 --> 00:45:46,166
Mayors are talking 
to each other.

1154
00:45:46,266 --> 00:45:49,600
The mayor of Seattle is 
talking to mayors in China

1155
00:45:49,700 --> 00:45:52,833
about what the heck, 
'cause it's a practical problem.

1156
00:45:52,933 --> 00:45:54,800
How do you deal 
with sea level rise?

1157
00:45:54,900 --> 00:45:57,800
How do you maintain 
a shipping grid?

1158
00:45:57,900 --> 00:46:00,133
You know, with an electricity, 
a limit to your electricity.

1159
00:46:00,233 --> 00:46:02,400
So there's a lot of 
learning going on,

1160
00:46:02,500 --> 00:46:06,733
it's just not at the sort 
of national, federal,

1161
00:46:06,833 --> 00:46:09,000
you know, the failure 
of climate negotiations

1162
00:46:09,100 --> 00:46:12,633
at the national scale has 
been matched by the success

1163
00:46:12,733 --> 00:46:16,333
of climate activities by 
mayors, county government.

1164
00:46:16,433 --> 00:46:19,000
I mean, the decentralization 
of this decision-making

1165
00:46:19,100 --> 00:46:21,000
is quite remarkable 
and quite effective.

1166
00:46:21,100 --> 00:46:23,900
- [Audience] Are you the 
only person in the room that 
knows this? (audience laughter)

1167
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,233
We never heard this.

1168
00:46:25,333 --> 00:46:27,500
- [Paul] I will connect you to

1169
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:29,766
the Mayors Climate 
Protection Agreement

1170
00:46:29,866 --> 00:46:33,366
in which a majority of 
Americans live in cities signed,

1171
00:46:33,466 --> 00:46:35,733
where mayors signed the Mayors 
Climate Protection Agreement.

1172
00:46:35,833 --> 00:46:37,533
Now, some of these people, 
it's just green washing.

1173
00:46:37,633 --> 00:46:39,100
It's like, oh, yeah, I'm green.

1174
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,466
And you know, the city just 
goes on doing stupid stuff.

1175
00:46:41,566 --> 00:46:44,400
But a lot of these cities are 
making really good decisions

1176
00:46:44,500 --> 00:46:48,766
because if they don't, 
they're screwed.

1177
00:46:48,866 --> 00:46:51,400
You know, when somebody like 
Mayor Bloomberg comes out

1178
00:46:51,500 --> 00:46:54,033
and says, "I think sea level 
rise is going to be a problem

1179
00:46:54,133 --> 00:46:56,566
and we might want to think 
about restoring wetlands,"

1180
00:46:56,666 --> 00:46:58,600
(makes wacky vocalization)

1181
00:46:58,700 --> 00:47:00,866
that's quite a 
revelation, right?

1182
00:47:00,966 --> 00:47:04,600
Coming out of that 
storm sequence.

1183
00:47:04,700 --> 00:47:07,366
My point here is that people,

1184
00:47:07,466 --> 00:47:08,800
this is happening.

1185
00:47:08,900 --> 00:47:10,800
It's not happening enough, 
it needs to happen more.

1186
00:47:10,900 --> 00:47:11,966
Environmental 
citizenship is about

1187
00:47:12,066 --> 00:47:13,966
directing those 
kinds of changes.

1188
00:47:14,066 --> 00:47:17,500
But I think it comes out of, 
now I'm just gonna be on TV,

1189
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:19,500
get myself into more trouble.

1190
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,633
I think it has to do with a 
history of environmentalism

1191
00:47:22,733 --> 00:47:24,400
in the environmental community.

1192
00:47:24,500 --> 00:47:26,333
I describe myself as 
an environmentalist.

1193
00:47:26,433 --> 00:47:28,800
It's not what I do for a living. 
I am a scientist.

1194
00:47:28,900 --> 00:47:31,533
But I worry about the Earth, 
and I think that my brothers

1195
00:47:31,633 --> 00:47:33,566
and sisters in this 
movement have depended upon

1196
00:47:33,666 --> 00:47:36,200
waiting for the national 
government to do something

1197
00:47:36,300 --> 00:47:39,166
that's gonna be a centralized 
solution all the time.

1198
00:47:39,266 --> 00:47:41,633
And I think that is necessary,

1199
00:47:41,733 --> 00:47:44,300
but insufficient to the project.

1200
00:47:45,166 --> 00:47:47,900
Oh, now I'm getting 
myself into trouble.

1201
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,666
I like mayors, my 
bet's on mayors.

1202
00:47:50,766 --> 00:47:53,400
There should be a global 
parliament of mayors.

1203
00:47:53,500 --> 00:47:55,433
And they should just 
get together and say,

1204
00:47:55,533 --> 00:47:58,033
"Here are a bunch of things 
I'm doing in a city that work.

1205
00:47:58,133 --> 00:47:59,533
What are you doing?"

1206
00:47:59,633 --> 00:48:04,033
And they could all agree to 
do it, it'd be revolutionary.

1207
00:48:04,133 --> 00:48:06,466
- [Shakhashiri] Let me 
see if I can get you

1208
00:48:06,566 --> 00:48:08,533
in some more trouble.

1209
00:48:08,633 --> 00:48:09,933
(audience laughter)

1210
00:48:10,033 --> 00:48:13,600
And I'm cautious in 
asking this question.

1211
00:48:13,700 --> 00:48:16,100
- [Paul] I'll be 
cautious in answering.

1212
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:18,033
- [Shakhashiri] Be bold.

1213
00:48:18,133 --> 00:48:19,500
It's up to you.

1214
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:24,133
So, are there other 
crops around the world

1215
00:48:24,233 --> 00:48:28,166
that can now, 
what's the right word,

1216
00:48:28,266 --> 00:48:29,733
benefit from this approach?

1217
00:48:29,833 --> 00:48:33,333
And what about crops 
around the world

1218
00:48:33,433 --> 00:48:36,866
that are economically lucrative,

1219
00:48:36,966 --> 00:48:40,233
but not good for our health?

1220
00:48:40,333 --> 00:48:42,333
- Not good for our health.

1221
00:48:42,433 --> 00:48:44,100
So, there's a big question,

1222
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:45,633
and it's bigger 
than my knowledge.

1223
00:48:45,733 --> 00:48:49,600
So I have to admit you've 
hit the edge of my ignorance.

1224
00:48:50,533 --> 00:48:52,666
Which is vast. 
(audience laughter)

1225
00:48:52,766 --> 00:48:54,566
But I would say that

1226
00:48:54,666 --> 00:48:58,333
central Wisconsin potatoes

1227
00:48:58,433 --> 00:49:01,066
are a very interesting crop.

1228
00:49:01,166 --> 00:49:03,133
So, what makes them interesting?

1229
00:49:03,233 --> 00:49:05,133
Well, we could talk 
about how awful they are.

1230
00:49:05,233 --> 00:49:07,300
For a moment, let's talk 
about how awful they are.

1231
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:09,566
Knowing potato growers around 
the state who are really,

1232
00:49:09,666 --> 00:49:12,633
really thoughtful, smart 
people and I like them a lot

1233
00:49:12,733 --> 00:49:15,866
and they are feeding the world 
and all the rest of that.

1234
00:49:15,966 --> 00:49:18,000
High capacity bore wells, right?

1235
00:49:18,100 --> 00:49:20,866
You know, drawing on the water 
resources very, very heavily.

1236
00:49:20,966 --> 00:49:22,333
Big problem with potatoes.

1237
00:49:22,433 --> 00:49:24,400
It is a high input 
crop, you know,

1238
00:49:24,500 --> 00:49:27,100
in terms of 
nutrients, pesticides.

1239
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,633
You know, it's a dirty crop. 
It can be a dirty crop.

1240
00:49:29,733 --> 00:49:31,800
But one of the things that 
they've gotten better at

1241
00:49:31,900 --> 00:49:33,833
in central Wisconsin is 
doing the kinds of things

1242
00:49:33,933 --> 00:49:35,266
that I was just talking about.

1243
00:49:35,366 --> 00:49:37,766
Using those corners where 
central pivot doesn't touch

1244
00:49:37,866 --> 00:49:39,800
to produce all kinds 
of biodiversity.

1245
00:49:39,900 --> 00:49:41,200
They're doing all these things.

1246
00:49:41,300 --> 00:49:43,600
The problem is they can't 
get a premium for it.

1247
00:49:43,700 --> 00:49:45,133
Why is that?

1248
00:49:45,233 --> 00:49:46,533
Even though they're 
producing biodiversity.

1249
00:49:46,633 --> 00:49:48,766
Let's say these farmers 
who are producing potatoes,

1250
00:49:48,866 --> 00:49:51,466
just like our coffee growers,

1251
00:49:51,566 --> 00:49:54,600
and they're producing 
biodiversity at the field edges

1252
00:49:54,700 --> 00:49:57,600
along with some forest remnants, 
restoring some of their prairie,

1253
00:49:57,700 --> 00:49:59,700
why can't they get 
a revenue for that?

1254
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:01,700
And the answer is 
because it's not organic.

1255
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,366
So once again environmentalism 
defeats itself, right?

1256
00:50:05,466 --> 00:50:07,200
I understand what 
organic is, right.

1257
00:50:07,300 --> 00:50:09,766
Organic is no inputs 
for seven years.

1258
00:50:09,866 --> 00:50:12,000
These potato growers are 
not gonna hit that mark,

1259
00:50:12,100 --> 00:50:13,600
but they might be 
producing more biodiversity

1260
00:50:13,700 --> 00:50:15,166
than an organic farm.

1261
00:50:15,266 --> 00:50:17,833
How can we pay them for 
those ecosystem services?

1262
00:50:17,933 --> 00:50:19,866
How can we get them to do it?

1263
00:50:19,966 --> 00:50:22,000
And so they tried working with 
the University of Wisconsin

1264
00:50:22,100 --> 00:50:23,933
for a brand in this area.

1265
00:50:24,033 --> 00:50:26,366
I believe it's Nature Grown. 
Something like that.

1266
00:50:26,466 --> 00:50:27,733
Anybody familiar with this?

1267
00:50:27,833 --> 00:50:29,800
The problem is that people 
don't understand it.

1268
00:50:29,900 --> 00:50:31,333
It's not organic, 
it's too complicated.

1269
00:50:31,433 --> 00:50:34,433
It's got biodiversity, but 
it's kind of industrial.

1270
00:50:34,533 --> 00:50:36,800
It's very hard to market 
stuff like this, right?

1271
00:50:36,900 --> 00:50:39,566
Innovation that isn't 
nice and clean, you know,

1272
00:50:39,666 --> 00:50:42,566
that makes easy sense to 
people, is very hard to sell.

1273
00:50:42,666 --> 00:50:44,933
So my point is everything 
I said about coffee

1274
00:50:45,033 --> 00:50:46,833
is true about every crop.

1275
00:50:46,933 --> 00:50:50,933
You could have more 
biodiverse all kinds of stuff.

1276
00:50:51,033 --> 00:50:53,000
You could always have more.

1277
00:50:53,100 --> 00:50:54,766
Are there crops we 
should do away with?

1278
00:50:54,866 --> 00:50:56,500
Are there bad incentives?

1279
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:58,566
Yeah. Right?

1280
00:50:58,666 --> 00:51:00,300
The ethanol incentive.

1281
00:51:01,133 --> 00:51:04,000
The ethanol incentive, he 
says to the camera,

1282
00:51:04,100 --> 00:51:07,233
has actually resulted, 
in the last few years,

1283
00:51:07,333 --> 00:51:10,266
in the elimination of a 
lot of prairie and wetlands

1284
00:51:10,366 --> 00:51:13,433
that were put in through 
the conservation,

1285
00:51:13,533 --> 00:51:15,833
through federal 
conservation investments

1286
00:51:15,933 --> 00:51:17,700
throughout the 1990s and 2000s.

1287
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:21,733
All that stuff that was 
moving forward fell backwards,

1288
00:51:21,833 --> 00:51:23,466
because we're working 
across purposes.

1289
00:51:23,566 --> 00:51:25,600
On the one hand, the federal 
government's paying people

1290
00:51:25,700 --> 00:51:29,000
to take corn out and bring, 
you know, wild nature back

1291
00:51:29,100 --> 00:51:30,400
in places that aren't 
very productive.

1292
00:51:30,500 --> 00:51:32,333
On the other hand, 
they're subsidizing corn,

1293
00:51:32,433 --> 00:51:36,000
which takes land into production 
that was out in wetlands

1294
00:51:36,100 --> 00:51:38,633
and had the tile stopped 
up and all of that.

1295
00:51:38,733 --> 00:51:41,700
So, you got the government 
working across purposes.

1296
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,033
So my point about that is

1297
00:51:44,133 --> 00:51:46,333
all crops could be 
more sustainable.

1298
00:51:46,433 --> 00:51:47,633
They have to be.

1299
00:51:47,733 --> 00:51:50,333
There will be 
10,000,000,000 people.

1300
00:51:50,433 --> 00:51:53,300
We will have to eat. 
We will have to have energy.

1301
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:55,400
It's gonna have to happen.

1302
00:51:55,500 --> 00:51:57,600
But I'm sure there's 
a better way to do it.

1303
00:51:57,700 --> 00:51:59,233
And that's what 
sustainability science is.

1304
00:51:59,333 --> 00:52:01,266
It's is a rigorous 
look at where you can

1305
00:52:01,366 --> 00:52:03,866
squeeze those margins, 
make those trade-offs

1306
00:52:03,966 --> 00:52:05,333
in ways that are sensible.

1307
00:52:05,433 --> 00:52:07,033
But it's not gonna happen 
without government action,

1308
00:52:07,133 --> 00:52:08,633
even federal government action.

1309
00:52:08,733 --> 00:52:10,133
It's not gonna happen 
without local action.

1310
00:52:10,233 --> 00:52:12,733
It's not gonna happen 
without people demanding

1311
00:52:12,833 --> 00:52:14,066
that those things happen.

1312
00:52:14,166 --> 00:52:15,533
But what you can't demand

1313
00:52:15,633 --> 00:52:18,200
is that we're all gonna 
go back into a cave.

1314
00:52:18,300 --> 00:52:19,933
You know, it's just 
not gonna happen.

1315
00:52:20,033 --> 00:52:23,733
And you're welcome to, but I 
think it's somewhat offensive

1316
00:52:23,833 --> 00:52:25,933
to ask somebody in 
India to do that.

1317
00:52:26,033 --> 00:52:29,366
So that's the one thing 
that's off the table.

1318
00:52:29,466 --> 00:52:31,033
You can't ask for that.

1319
00:52:31,133 --> 00:52:34,966
What's left then is the 
fountain of human ingenuity

1320
00:52:35,066 --> 00:52:38,566
and creativity and 
new social networks

1321
00:52:38,666 --> 00:52:42,633
and good regulation 
and stuff like that.

1322
00:52:43,633 --> 00:52:47,000
Now just get over the 
whole, like, hobbit thing.

1323
00:52:47,100 --> 00:52:49,033
Right? 
That's all.

1324
00:52:50,233 --> 00:52:52,666
I know, hobbits are awesome.

1325
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:55,033
Go ahead.

1326
00:52:57,700 --> 00:53:00,000
- [Audience] You said 
earlier that the population

1327
00:53:00,100 --> 00:53:03,433
was probably going to 
top off at 10,000,000,

1328
00:53:03,533 --> 00:53:06,233
but is the USA being, like,

1329
00:53:06,333 --> 00:53:09,533
iconically sustainable?

1330
00:53:09,633 --> 00:53:12,433
In, like, the population growth?

1331
00:53:12,533 --> 00:53:16,766
Is it contributing 
much to the total?

1332
00:53:16,866 --> 00:53:19,800
- So much to say about that,

1333
00:53:19,900 --> 00:53:21,200
all of it a little 
contradictory.

1334
00:53:21,300 --> 00:53:23,333
So let me give you 
the glass half full

1335
00:53:23,433 --> 00:53:24,866
and the glass half empty.

1336
00:53:24,966 --> 00:53:26,566
The bad news is this.

1337
00:53:26,666 --> 00:53:29,566
Population growth in the 
United States is higher,

1338
00:53:29,666 --> 00:53:31,000
fertility rates are 
higher in this county

1339
00:53:31,100 --> 00:53:32,700
than they are in southern India.

1340
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:34,400
And we use a whole 
lot more stuff

1341
00:53:34,500 --> 00:53:35,966
than people in southern India.

1342
00:53:36,066 --> 00:53:38,900
We have an energy 
intensive lifestyle, right,

1343
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,366
that is driving climate change 
and doing all that stuff

1344
00:53:41,466 --> 00:53:42,900
that we all agree is bad.

1345
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:45,966
So, before I told anybody 
in India to do this or that,

1346
00:53:46,066 --> 00:53:48,300
I would probably start 
with a lot of questions

1347
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:50,700
about consumption and 
lifestyle and whatever else.

1348
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,400
So that's the glass half-empty. 
And the answer is yes.

1349
00:53:53,500 --> 00:53:56,000
The United States 
is contributing to 
global climate change

1350
00:53:56,100 --> 00:53:58,400
through the destruction 
of ecosystems.

1351
00:53:58,500 --> 00:54:03,200
Yeah, sure, all wealthy 
countries do so far, right?

1352
00:54:03,300 --> 00:54:05,033
Now the glass half full.

1353
00:54:05,133 --> 00:54:08,400
Energy and material 
intensity of the US economy

1354
00:54:08,500 --> 00:54:10,766
is declining at an 
incredible rate.

1355
00:54:10,866 --> 00:54:13,666
In other words, many of us 
in this room are old enough

1356
00:54:13,766 --> 00:54:16,933
to remember my 1972 Dodge 
Dart Swinger Special.

1357
00:54:17,033 --> 00:54:19,433
It's a car. 
(audience laughter)

1358
00:54:19,533 --> 00:54:21,466
It weighed a ton, right.

1359
00:54:21,566 --> 00:54:24,500
And on average a car produces 
about as much carbon dioxide

1360
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,666
or about as much greenhouse 
gases as its weight annually.

1361
00:54:27,766 --> 00:54:29,133
Just for the record.

1362
00:54:29,233 --> 00:54:31,566
That's just a back of the 
envelope kind of calculation.

1363
00:54:31,666 --> 00:54:34,433
Those cars are 
getting a lot lighter.

1364
00:54:34,533 --> 00:54:38,333
I mean, the amount of stuff 
that it takes to be an American

1365
00:54:38,433 --> 00:54:40,300
is less now than ever before.

1366
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:42,866
Water use per capita is down.

1367
00:54:42,966 --> 00:54:45,300
One of the big jumps 
it made in the 1990s,

1368
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:46,966
it went like (imitates 
whooshing), like that.

1369
00:54:47,066 --> 00:54:50,300
Where did that come from? 
Smaller toilet tanks.

1370
00:54:51,366 --> 00:54:53,766
I mean, it's not rocket surgery.

1371
00:54:53,866 --> 00:54:57,166
So we've made a lot of progress

1372
00:54:57,266 --> 00:55:01,200
in dematerializing 
the American lifestyle

1373
00:55:01,300 --> 00:55:03,633
and the American economy 
through innovation, 
through technology.

1374
00:55:03,733 --> 00:55:05,600
That doesn't mean we 
don't have a problem.

1375
00:55:05,700 --> 00:55:06,933
We do.

1376
00:55:07,033 --> 00:55:09,366
But it's an interesting trend, 
and we've got to bank on it.

1377
00:55:09,466 --> 00:55:11,466
It takes something like 
four times less energy

1378
00:55:11,566 --> 00:55:14,566
to live to be 72, 
globally, than it used to.

1379
00:55:14,666 --> 00:55:18,366
It's kind of an odd statistic, 
but I got it from a recent paper

1380
00:55:18,466 --> 00:55:19,900
and I think it's 
an interesting one.

1381
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:21,866
That people are living longer 
and they're using less energy

1382
00:55:21,966 --> 00:55:24,166
over the course of their 
lifetimes to get there.

1383
00:55:24,266 --> 00:55:27,100
That's not a bad thing. 
I would like to make 72.

1384
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:28,866
I'm probably not gonna 
make it much longer.

1385
00:55:28,966 --> 00:55:31,466
My grandfather was 101.

1386
00:55:31,566 --> 00:55:35,033
Yeah, but on the other side 
of the family, bad genes.

1387
00:55:35,133 --> 00:55:36,366
Anyway, I'm off-topic.

1388
00:55:36,466 --> 00:55:38,600
My point is people 
are living longer

1389
00:55:38,700 --> 00:55:40,866
and they're using less 
stuff to get there, right.

1390
00:55:40,966 --> 00:55:42,866
We can dematerialize 
the economy.

1391
00:55:42,966 --> 00:55:47,400
That is a good news trend 
in intensive countries

1392
00:55:47,500 --> 00:55:49,633
like northern Europe 
and the United States.

1393
00:55:49,733 --> 00:55:52,700
That's where that 
dematerialization is 
the strongest signal.

1394
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:54,933
It's happening more 
there than elsewhere.

1395
00:55:55,033 --> 00:55:56,533
And if you'd like to write me,

1396
00:55:56,633 --> 00:55:58,466
I can actually provide 
some very good papers

1397
00:55:58,566 --> 00:56:00,700
and statistics on 
dematerialization, 
which is fascinating.

1398
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:03,000
I mean, if you're 
really optimistic,

1399
00:56:03,100 --> 00:56:05,166
like suddenly we just 
won't need anything,

1400
00:56:05,266 --> 00:56:07,733
we'll just live on, 
like, we'll be like,

1401
00:56:07,833 --> 00:56:09,800
live on air or 
somethin', I don't know.

1402
00:56:09,900 --> 00:56:11,733
Where's it all going?

1403
00:56:11,833 --> 00:56:13,633
I'm flabbergasted.

1404
00:56:13,733 --> 00:56:16,333
Technology keeps me humble.

1405
00:56:18,933 --> 00:56:21,633
- [Audience] I was 
wondering, in southwest India,

1406
00:56:21,733 --> 00:56:25,866
how it's doing with 
providing electricity

1407
00:56:25,966 --> 00:56:30,533
or solar power, water.

1408
00:56:30,633 --> 00:56:33,266
I keep reading about, hearing 
about various projects

1409
00:56:33,366 --> 00:56:37,766
to bring into parts of India 
different kinds of power.

1410
00:56:37,866 --> 00:56:40,566
- Yeah, it's actually, each of 
those is a different problem.

1411
00:56:40,666 --> 00:56:43,233
I'm going to go all the 
way back to my water map.

1412
00:56:43,333 --> 00:56:45,400
But at the very beginning, 
what you noticed

1413
00:56:45,500 --> 00:56:49,600
about the natural 
distribution of rainfall

1414
00:56:49,700 --> 00:56:51,600
in India,

1415
00:56:51,700 --> 00:56:53,633
in this part of India even,

1416
00:56:53,733 --> 00:56:56,500
is it's really 
dramatically uneven, right?

1417
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:58,800
So what we're lookin' at here,

1418
00:56:58,900 --> 00:57:00,300
I'm almost there, sorry.

1419
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:02,466
This is a good map for that.

1420
00:57:03,500 --> 00:57:04,900
Here we go.

1421
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:07,833
Is that you've got, 
in these areas here,

1422
00:57:07,933 --> 00:57:09,366
this is just natural condition.

1423
00:57:09,466 --> 00:57:11,833
Now, these will change 
with climate change

1424
00:57:11,933 --> 00:57:14,066
and changes in the monsoon 
over the next century.

1425
00:57:14,166 --> 00:57:15,600
God only knows 
what's gonna happen.

1426
00:57:15,700 --> 00:57:17,133
But for the moment, 
historically,

1427
00:57:17,233 --> 00:57:19,066
over 250 centimeters 
along the coast,

1428
00:57:19,166 --> 00:57:21,866
what happens is the monsoon 
seasonally comes up here,

1429
00:57:21,966 --> 00:57:23,533
blasts down here,

1430
00:57:23,633 --> 00:57:25,966
spends itself on the 
west side of the hills,

1431
00:57:26,066 --> 00:57:28,166
and by the time it gets 
over here and goes north

1432
00:57:28,266 --> 00:57:31,600
it's kind of dumped a 
lot of its moisture.

1433
00:57:31,700 --> 00:57:35,233
So this is a water 
deficit place, right?

1434
00:57:35,333 --> 00:57:37,400
And this is a water 
surplus place.

1435
00:57:37,500 --> 00:57:39,100
That's the state of 
Kerala down here.

1436
00:57:39,200 --> 00:57:40,800
This is the state 
of Karnataka here.

1437
00:57:40,900 --> 00:57:42,433
But the most wealthy people,

1438
00:57:42,533 --> 00:57:46,133
all those software engineers 
who are living very,

1439
00:57:46,233 --> 00:57:47,433
I see them.

1440
00:57:47,533 --> 00:57:50,133
They're on BMW motorcycles 
in leather coats

1441
00:57:50,233 --> 00:57:52,633
and giant cameras on their back,

1442
00:57:52,733 --> 00:57:55,400
and they're going into the 
countryside to photograph birds.

1443
00:57:55,500 --> 00:57:56,766
Those people all live here in

1444
00:57:56,866 --> 00:58:01,400
in what is essentially 
a high elevation desert.

1445
00:58:01,500 --> 00:58:03,933
So, in the end, they're gonna 
have to redistribute water.

1446
00:58:04,033 --> 00:58:05,366
They're going to.

1447
00:58:05,466 --> 00:58:08,133
Right, there's only so much 
conservation they can do.

1448
00:58:08,233 --> 00:58:09,833
Somebody's gonna build 
a big dam right here,

1449
00:58:09,933 --> 00:58:11,266
because what's happening?

1450
00:58:11,366 --> 00:58:13,900
The water is 
basically coming here 
and running into the ocean.

1451
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:16,000
And from the point of view 
of the Indian government,

1452
00:58:16,100 --> 00:58:17,500
that's a waste of resources.

1453
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:19,700
Now, we can argue 
about what happens

1454
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:21,266
when you build big dams.

1455
00:58:21,366 --> 00:58:23,200
They're always 
environmentally problematic.

1456
00:58:23,300 --> 00:58:25,300
So trade-offs, 
trade-offs, trade-offs.

1457
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:27,566
But water's gonna 
be redistributed.

1458
00:58:27,666 --> 00:58:30,100
Energy? 
Yeah.

1459
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:31,933
Energy is coming online 
like nothing I've ever seen.

1460
00:58:32,033 --> 00:58:34,100
Electricity everywhere 
in the south,

1461
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:36,033
and it is coming very 
heavily, unfortunately,

1462
00:58:36,133 --> 00:58:38,366
from coal fired power plants,

1463
00:58:38,466 --> 00:58:42,700
which means contributions 
to global climate change.

1464
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:45,533
You know? 
So what would you prefer?

1465
00:58:45,633 --> 00:58:47,666
Solar energy, 
okay, there's some.

1466
00:58:47,766 --> 00:58:49,433
Particular in 
distributed rural areas.

1467
00:58:49,533 --> 00:58:51,833
But to keep the lights 
on in Bangalore...

1468
00:58:53,066 --> 00:58:55,133
how do you feel 
about nuclear power?

1469
00:58:57,466 --> 00:59:00,233
Seriously, how do 
you feel about it?

1470
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:03,133
I'm asking.

1471
00:59:03,233 --> 00:59:05,066
The person who 
asked the question,

1472
00:59:05,166 --> 00:59:06,533
how do you feel about it?

1473
00:59:06,633 --> 00:59:09,633
- [Audience] Well, I see 
some of the positives (static)

1474
00:59:09,733 --> 00:59:12,233
compared to coal. 
- [Paul] Compared to coal.

1475
00:59:12,333 --> 00:59:15,966
Compared to coal, you 
know, burning people alive

1476
00:59:16,066 --> 00:59:17,633
is probably a better 
idea, you know?

1477
00:59:17,733 --> 00:59:20,733
Coal is like the filthiest 
thing. (audience laughter)

1478
00:59:20,833 --> 00:59:23,233
Oh, my god. (audience laughter)

1479
00:59:23,333 --> 00:59:27,100
So, my point here is 
that infrastructure

1480
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:29,300
is on the rise throughout India

1481
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:30,800
Dams are going in.

1482
00:59:30,900 --> 00:59:33,033
Roads, the roads are 
unbelievably good

1483
00:59:33,133 --> 00:59:36,033
compared to what I remember 
from 1988, you know?

1484
00:59:36,133 --> 00:59:38,800
When you had to make a 
trunk phone call home.

1485
00:59:38,900 --> 00:59:42,000
I mean, it's not the 
India of anybody's memory.

1486
00:59:42,100 --> 00:59:44,666
The last five years has 
fundamentally changed

1487
00:59:44,766 --> 00:59:46,266
the infrastructure system,

1488
00:59:46,366 --> 00:59:48,066
which means a 
redistribution in energy,

1489
00:59:48,166 --> 00:59:50,333
it means a 
redistribution in water.

1490
00:59:50,433 --> 00:59:53,733
It's massive and some of 
it is very problematic,

1491
00:59:53,833 --> 00:59:56,266
but some of it is really 
filled with possibilities.

1492
00:59:56,366 --> 00:59:57,700
You get those people 
back in those,

1493
00:59:57,800 --> 00:59:59,600
get 'em in the city, right?

1494
00:59:59,700 --> 01:00:01,233
Where it costs a 
whole lot less water

1495
01:00:01,333 --> 01:00:02,633
and a whole let less energy

1496
01:00:02,733 --> 01:00:05,466
when you're in a big well 
built apartment block

1497
01:00:05,566 --> 01:00:07,000
than if you're 
distributed across

1498
01:00:07,100 --> 01:00:09,366
a large suburban kind 
of sprawl, right?

1499
01:00:09,466 --> 01:00:11,200
So, going back to 
the earlier question

1500
01:00:11,300 --> 01:00:13,233
from the gentleman 
on the back right,

1501
01:00:13,333 --> 01:00:14,900
this is happening in India,

1502
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:17,733
and it's sure 
happening in China.

1503
01:00:17,833 --> 01:00:20,366
You know, there are 
cities even exist

1504
01:00:20,466 --> 01:00:21,833
20 years ago in 
any meaningful way,

1505
01:00:21,933 --> 01:00:25,033
which are larger than any 
city in the United States.

1506
01:00:25,133 --> 01:00:27,366
Everything interesting is 
happening somewhere else.

1507
01:00:27,466 --> 01:00:28,833
For the most part.

1508
01:00:28,933 --> 01:00:30,800
I'm a geographer, 
so I get to say that.

1509
01:00:30,900 --> 01:00:33,366
I'm really sorry what 
I said about bodies.

1510
01:00:33,466 --> 01:00:36,966
That's kind of a Soylent 
Greeny kind of thing to say.

1511
01:00:37,066 --> 01:00:38,533
So regretting it.

1512
01:00:38,633 --> 01:00:40,833
Okay, so that's the 
answer to that question,

1513
01:00:40,933 --> 01:00:43,533
is that a lot of 
infrastructure is going in.

1514
01:00:45,933 --> 01:00:49,233
- [Audience] So I live on 
the east side of Madison.

1515
01:00:49,333 --> 01:00:52,000
We have an old garage.

1516
01:00:52,100 --> 01:00:55,400
We have an apple tree 
that's gotten climbed on 
and it's going to die.

1517
01:00:55,500 --> 01:00:57,133
We have our curly willow

1518
01:00:57,233 --> 01:00:59,100
that I feel like I 
need to cut down,

1519
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,433
because it's getting very tall.

1520
01:01:01,533 --> 01:01:03,666
We have easements

1521
01:01:03,766 --> 01:01:06,866
that we mow every 
couple of weeks.

1522
01:01:06,966 --> 01:01:09,766
Should we just let some 
of these things go?

1523
01:01:09,866 --> 01:01:11,400
We've got squirrels and--

1524
01:01:11,500 --> 01:01:13,766
- [Paul] That's a great-- 
- [Audience] ...and rabbits.

1525
01:01:13,866 --> 01:01:15,566
- [Paul] You could have 
so much more, right?

1526
01:01:15,666 --> 01:01:17,633
So there's lots of ways 
to cultivate biodiversity

1527
01:01:17,733 --> 01:01:18,933
in suburban landscapes.

1528
01:01:19,033 --> 01:01:20,866
So, when I'm not researching 
India, by the way,

1529
01:01:20,966 --> 01:01:22,666
I wrote another book 
called Lawn People,

1530
01:01:22,766 --> 01:01:26,366
which is about why people 
use chemicals and keep lawns.

1531
01:01:26,466 --> 01:01:27,666
People who use lawn chemicals,

1532
01:01:27,766 --> 01:01:30,066
in our nationwide study 
in the United States,

1533
01:01:30,166 --> 01:01:32,233
are more likely to say 
that lawn chemicals are bad

1534
01:01:32,333 --> 01:01:34,133
for the environment, their 
children, and water quality

1535
01:01:34,233 --> 01:01:35,866
than people who 
don't use chemicals.

1536
01:01:35,966 --> 01:01:38,266
- Which means they 
read the bag, you know?

1537
01:01:38,366 --> 01:01:40,566
And they're like, 
"I feel so bad."

1538
01:01:40,666 --> 01:01:42,766
I don't have a lot of 
practical suggestions there,

1539
01:01:42,866 --> 01:01:45,733
but what I did in that research 
was meet a lot of people

1540
01:01:45,833 --> 01:01:48,833
who have online, you know, 
online not-for-profits

1541
01:01:48,933 --> 01:01:50,466
that will tell you 
all the different ways

1542
01:01:50,566 --> 01:01:52,766
you could bring pollinators 
back to your landscape,

1543
01:01:52,866 --> 01:01:55,933
restore just little 
swaths of native prairie.

1544
01:01:56,033 --> 01:01:58,133
There's all kinds of 
groovy stuff you could do.

1545
01:01:58,233 --> 01:02:01,566
I mean, one of the great 
things about being an American

1546
01:02:01,666 --> 01:02:04,500
is that you've got all this 
land that you get to play with,

1547
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:06,866
I mean, compared to, say, 
people living in Bangalore,

1548
01:02:06,966 --> 01:02:08,900
right, who might 
have a garden plot.

1549
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:11,266
You actually have an 
opportunity to experiment.

1550
01:02:11,366 --> 01:02:12,800
And there's lots of resources.

1551
01:02:12,900 --> 01:02:14,700
More resources than I 
could ever tell you.

1552
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:17,933
And it's basically restoration 
ecology that you can perform.

1553
01:02:18,033 --> 01:02:22,300
And this university, 
this great university,

1554
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:24,700
is the one that invented 
restoration ecology.

1555
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:26,900
There are people on 
this campus in Extension

1556
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:29,366
who will come out to your 
property and say, yeah,

1557
01:02:29,466 --> 01:02:32,933
you could bring in, you know, 
indigenous grass varieties.

1558
01:02:33,033 --> 01:02:34,233
It would increase your birds

1559
01:02:34,333 --> 01:02:35,733
and pollinators and butterflies.

1560
01:02:35,833 --> 01:02:38,133
This is easy for them, this 
is what they're paid for.

1561
01:02:38,233 --> 01:02:39,766
They're paid out of your taxes

1562
01:02:39,866 --> 01:02:42,133
to tell you how to 
restore biodiversity.

1563
01:02:42,233 --> 01:02:45,066
Call them. 
So that's the answer.

1564
01:02:45,166 --> 01:02:47,966
And I think that 
that's the other part of this 
citizenship thing.

1565
01:02:48,066 --> 01:02:50,466
Yes, if it works for somebody 
who has to make a living

1566
01:02:50,566 --> 01:02:52,900
out of coffee or 
his kids don't eat,

1567
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:55,000
then it'll work for 
you on a landscape

1568
01:02:55,100 --> 01:02:57,466
that's essentially recreational 
for you purposes, right.

1569
01:02:57,566 --> 01:03:00,700
I assume you're not making your 
living off of that property.

1570
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:03,033
That gives you an enormous gift.

1571
01:03:03,133 --> 01:03:05,633
It's the gift of discretion,

1572
01:03:05,733 --> 01:03:08,433
freedom to kind of experiment.

1573
01:03:08,533 --> 01:03:12,066
So experimenting on 
your landscape is great.

1574
01:03:12,166 --> 01:03:13,633
We just have a big forest.

1575
01:03:13,733 --> 01:03:16,233
I insisted that I just 
couldn't have a lawn.

1576
01:03:16,333 --> 01:03:17,800
They freak me out.

1577
01:03:17,900 --> 01:03:20,233
Because I always feel bad 
I'm not mowing it, right.

1578
01:03:20,333 --> 01:03:22,266
I always feel bad I'm not 
putting pesticides on it.

1579
01:03:22,366 --> 01:03:23,800
It's the whole national culture.

1580
01:03:23,900 --> 01:03:28,433
We're totally, we feel bad that 
we're not doing bad things.

1581
01:03:28,533 --> 01:03:31,533
That's crazy. 
It's nuts. 
Great opportunity.

1582
01:03:31,633 --> 01:03:34,866
And the east side, do you know 
that there is a municipal?

1583
01:03:34,966 --> 01:03:37,333
This is a pioneering 
municipality.

1584
01:03:37,433 --> 01:03:40,300
There's a law here, I don't 
know if it's still on the books,

1585
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:43,766
but it was written about in 
a law journal in the 1990s,

1586
01:03:43,866 --> 01:03:47,266
that is basically a freedom 
to farm act for your lawn.

1587
01:03:47,366 --> 01:03:50,633
It makes it harder for 
your neighbors to sue you

1588
01:03:50,733 --> 01:03:53,000
if you do something 
that isn't lawn,

1589
01:03:53,100 --> 01:03:55,166
right, because this is 
the biggest problem.

1590
01:03:55,266 --> 01:03:59,700
In Florida, 
if you remove your lawn,

1591
01:03:59,800 --> 01:04:01,433
you're likely to be 
sued by your neighbors.

1592
01:04:01,533 --> 01:04:03,166
You may actually be in 
a homeowners association

1593
01:04:03,266 --> 01:04:05,466
where it's actually 
against, you know,

1594
01:04:05,566 --> 01:04:07,366
it's actually against the rules.

1595
01:04:07,466 --> 01:04:10,066
You can be fined, right? 
People are fined.

1596
01:04:10,166 --> 01:04:11,500
Every spring, read the 
Florida newspapers.

1597
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:14,433
There's like 15 lawsuits 
against some clown who didn't,

1598
01:04:14,533 --> 01:04:16,566
you know, cut 
their lawn on time.

1599
01:04:17,800 --> 01:04:20,266
You're living on the 
east side of Madison?

1600
01:04:20,366 --> 01:04:21,933
It's like paradise 
for this stuff.

1601
01:04:22,033 --> 01:04:23,933
If you aren't, like, 
growing weird stuff,

1602
01:04:24,033 --> 01:04:25,900
you're missing a 
huge opportunity.

1603
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,933
There are people in Florida 
who would love to trade places 
with you.

1604
01:04:29,033 --> 01:04:32,300
Is that helpful? 
Go do it.

1605
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:34,533
We got foxes runnin' 
through the property.

1606
01:04:34,633 --> 01:04:36,466
I've never seen 
anything like it.

1607
01:04:36,566 --> 01:04:38,033
And they are bold.

1608
01:04:38,133 --> 01:04:40,666
They look into the window, 
and they're just like...

1609
01:04:40,766 --> 01:04:43,333
(audience laughter) 
I love 'em.

1610
01:04:43,433 --> 01:04:45,700
The dogs are flummoxed.

1611
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:47,866
These are two Great 
Danes and they're like...

1612
01:04:48,866 --> 01:04:50,266
You know, nature. 
(audience laughter)

1613
01:04:50,366 --> 01:04:54,133
All right, was there 
another question? (chuckles)

1614
01:04:54,233 --> 01:04:56,466
- [Audience] I wanted 
to go back to the frogs.

1615
01:04:56,566 --> 01:04:59,900
So, one, how will this 
infrastructure affect the frogs?

1616
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:02,366
And, secondly, you 
talked about the,

1617
01:05:02,466 --> 01:05:05,266
you didn't understand why 
the stream pour in the north

1618
01:05:05,366 --> 01:05:06,800
wouldn't move down to the south.

1619
01:05:06,900 --> 01:05:08,400
- [Paul] We haven't seen it yet.

1620
01:05:08,500 --> 01:05:10,033
- [Audience] What if 
there was a movement

1621
01:05:10,133 --> 01:05:12,133
to bring them there?

1622
01:05:12,233 --> 01:05:15,000
How would that affect 
the frogs, and how long

1623
01:05:15,100 --> 01:05:19,033
would it take them to get 
back to their sustainability--

1624
01:05:19,133 --> 01:05:21,200
- [Paul] Right, great questions.

1625
01:05:21,300 --> 01:05:24,466
So let me take the second one 
first, and then we'll go back.

1626
01:05:24,566 --> 01:05:26,366
See, the thing is, cheap labor

1627
01:05:26,466 --> 01:05:29,566
is what makes the 
biodiversity possible.

1628
01:05:29,666 --> 01:05:31,466
I don't think I've been 
entirely clear here.

1629
01:05:31,566 --> 01:05:34,800
The fact that people can get 
their hands on cheap labor,

1630
01:05:34,900 --> 01:05:37,266
which has always been 
true until recently,

1631
01:05:37,366 --> 01:05:38,800
means that they can have

1632
01:05:38,900 --> 01:05:40,866
a highly extensive 
biodiverse system.

1633
01:05:40,966 --> 01:05:42,400
It counted on,

1634
01:05:42,500 --> 01:05:45,866
poverty was the secret engine 
of biodiversity in the region.

1635
01:05:45,966 --> 01:05:48,433
That was the point that I don't 
think I made strongly enough.

1636
01:05:48,533 --> 01:05:51,033
It's the availability of 
cheap labor that means

1637
01:05:51,133 --> 01:05:53,333
you don't have to 
intensify production,

1638
01:05:53,433 --> 01:05:55,800
open up the canopy, 
change your cropping

1639
01:05:55,900 --> 01:05:58,700
into something more 
industrial, because labor,

1640
01:05:58,800 --> 01:06:00,866
whenever you replace 
labor in agriculture,

1641
01:06:00,966 --> 01:06:03,766
there's only one thing 
you can replace it with:

1642
01:06:03,866 --> 01:06:05,200
technology, right.

1643
01:06:05,300 --> 01:06:08,066
That's what the history of 
farming in the United States is.

1644
01:06:08,166 --> 01:06:12,133
That's why less than 1% of 
the population actually farms.

1645
01:06:12,233 --> 01:06:14,666
It's because all of that 
labor has been displaced

1646
01:06:14,766 --> 01:06:16,633
by giant machines.

1647
01:06:16,733 --> 01:06:19,266
It's much harder to mechanize 
coffee, I should point out.

1648
01:06:19,366 --> 01:06:21,700
But my point about this 
is I'm not convinced

1649
01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:23,600
that bringing in 
migrant labor from Bahar

1650
01:06:23,700 --> 01:06:25,000
would be bad for biodiversity.

1651
01:06:25,100 --> 01:06:27,400
It might be bad 
for those workers.

1652
01:06:27,500 --> 01:06:30,066
It might be an opportunity 
for them, though, too.

1653
01:06:30,166 --> 01:06:33,400
So that's just a question 
I don't have anywhere near

1654
01:06:33,500 --> 01:06:35,466
the resources or 
knowledge to answer.

1655
01:06:35,566 --> 01:06:37,633
- [Audience] So is there 
any push to do that, Paul?

1656
01:06:37,733 --> 01:06:39,400
- Not on the part of 
the state governments.

1657
01:06:39,500 --> 01:06:41,333
Nobody's saying, yeah, 
we should go up to Bihar

1658
01:06:41,433 --> 01:06:43,833
and get trucks of workers, 
but what you do see

1659
01:06:43,933 --> 01:06:45,966
in the Indian economy 
is trucks of workers.

1660
01:06:46,066 --> 01:06:49,166
There's a whole other, this is 
not my area, labor economics.

1661
01:06:49,266 --> 01:06:52,700
There's a whole economy 
of people who go

1662
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:55,800
and broker workers 
with landowners.

1663
01:06:55,900 --> 01:06:57,800
So they go to the 
landowner and say,

1664
01:06:57,900 --> 01:06:59,466
"How many workers 
are you gonna need?

1665
01:06:59,566 --> 01:07:01,133
"How long are you 
gonna need 'em?"

1666
01:07:01,233 --> 01:07:02,800
He contracts that.

1667
01:07:02,900 --> 01:07:05,500
Then he'll go back up to some 
other place, and he'll find,

1668
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:07,633
round up those 
workers essentially,

1669
01:07:07,733 --> 01:07:10,966
sign a contract with them, 
put them in the truck,

1670
01:07:11,066 --> 01:07:12,900
and drive them to the owner.

1671
01:07:13,000 --> 01:07:16,666
And usually the situation is 
very, very bad for the worker.

1672
01:07:16,766 --> 01:07:18,833
Like, the people 
making money there

1673
01:07:18,933 --> 01:07:21,133
are the farm owner 
and the broker.

1674
01:07:21,233 --> 01:07:23,200
Having said that, it 
happens all the time.

1675
01:07:23,300 --> 01:07:24,666
So that's just a side note,

1676
01:07:24,766 --> 01:07:26,733
is that there is 
a labor economy.

1677
01:07:26,833 --> 01:07:28,833
We just haven't seen it.

1678
01:07:28,933 --> 01:07:30,900
- [Audience] Well, that 
almost sounds like slave trade.

1679
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:33,333
- Well, I'll tell you 
what slave trade is.

1680
01:07:33,433 --> 01:07:36,300
Slave trade is the people 
who lived on these farms

1681
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:40,733
for the last hundred years 
without electricity in huts

1682
01:07:40,833 --> 01:07:44,466
on the private owner's farm 
accepting whatever terms

1683
01:07:44,566 --> 01:07:47,066
for pay, subsistence 
pay, they were receiving.

1684
01:07:47,166 --> 01:07:49,333
That was first British 
colonial people

1685
01:07:49,433 --> 01:07:51,600
and now wealthy 
Indians, essentially.

1686
01:07:51,700 --> 01:07:52,966
That is slavery.

1687
01:07:53,066 --> 01:07:54,933
And now, this is what's 
so great about it,

1688
01:07:55,033 --> 01:07:57,566
the owners are 
complaining, right.

1689
01:07:57,666 --> 01:08:00,066
This is the punchline. 
Workers are lazy.

1690
01:08:00,166 --> 01:08:02,466
Workers are smoking cigarettes.

1691
01:08:02,566 --> 01:08:04,600
It's because they won't be 
treated like slaves anymore.

1692
01:08:04,700 --> 01:08:07,400
There's an economic 
revolution going on.

1693
01:08:07,500 --> 01:08:09,066
It's enormously exciting.

1694
01:08:09,166 --> 01:08:11,200
The worry is, 
right, that farmers

1695
01:08:11,300 --> 01:08:14,033
with the loss of that labor, 
it's good for workers, right?

1696
01:08:14,133 --> 01:08:15,766
The loss of that labor 
might make decisions

1697
01:08:15,866 --> 01:08:18,566
to intensify production 
which might be bad for frogs.

1698
01:08:19,733 --> 01:08:23,033
So, what's good for workers 
isn't always good for frogs.

1699
01:08:23,133 --> 01:08:24,866
How do we? 
That's sustainability science.

1700
01:08:24,966 --> 01:08:26,300
That's the problem, right?

1701
01:08:26,400 --> 01:08:29,866
We'd like to think that if 
we just did the right thing,

1702
01:08:29,966 --> 01:08:32,000
everything else would follow.

1703
01:08:32,100 --> 01:08:33,566
And it doesn't work like that.

1704
01:08:33,666 --> 01:08:35,933
The system's too complex.

1705
01:08:36,033 --> 01:08:37,533
Does that help?

1706
01:08:37,633 --> 01:08:39,500
- [Audience] Well, so 
the frogs are, I mean,

1707
01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:42,133
the sustainability of the frogs 
is very hard to (mumbles).

1708
01:08:42,233 --> 01:08:43,600
Right? 
- [Paul] Right.

1709
01:08:43,700 --> 01:08:45,433
- [Audience] So it's not like,

1710
01:08:45,533 --> 01:08:48,066
it seems like if you're 
trying to solve one solution,

1711
01:08:48,166 --> 01:08:49,533
you're not,

1712
01:08:49,633 --> 01:08:52,400
it almost seemed very ideal 
when you first presented it,

1713
01:08:52,500 --> 01:08:54,966
that we did this and it 
was good for everybody,

1714
01:08:55,066 --> 01:08:56,466
including the frogs.

1715
01:08:56,566 --> 01:08:58,233
- It was good for the frogs.

1716
01:08:58,333 --> 01:09:00,300
The question is, how 
do you sustain it?

1717
01:09:00,400 --> 01:09:02,933
So, do you subsidize it?

1718
01:09:03,033 --> 01:09:06,133
Do you build cooperatives?

1719
01:09:06,233 --> 01:09:08,200
Are farmers who 
have cooperatives,

1720
01:09:08,300 --> 01:09:09,733
is it easier, in other words,

1721
01:09:09,833 --> 01:09:13,233
on their pocketbook to 
retain avian diversity,

1722
01:09:13,333 --> 01:09:15,233
because they're 
retaining tree diversity?

1723
01:09:15,333 --> 01:09:17,733
These are our questions we 
don't have answers to yet,

1724
01:09:17,833 --> 01:09:20,633
but what we wanna do 
is find those levers,

1725
01:09:20,733 --> 01:09:23,266
because the farmers 
aren't doing it for frogs.

1726
01:09:23,366 --> 01:09:25,166
It's not idyllic.

1727
01:09:25,266 --> 01:09:27,266
It's a happy accident.

1728
01:09:27,366 --> 01:09:30,066
Like most things in 
the world, you know?

1729
01:09:30,166 --> 01:09:32,566
So how can you reproduce 
a happy accident?

1730
01:09:32,666 --> 01:09:35,333
And I think that that's the 
role of experimentation,

1731
01:09:35,433 --> 01:09:36,833
adaptive management.

1732
01:09:36,933 --> 01:09:38,666
You try something, 
you see if it works.

1733
01:09:38,766 --> 01:09:40,133
It's trial and error.

1734
01:09:40,233 --> 01:09:42,833
It's essentially a crude form 
of the scientific method, 
in a sense.

1735
01:09:42,933 --> 01:09:46,166
So I think that there's lots 
of things we can do in India 
to preserve biodiversity.

1736
01:09:46,266 --> 01:09:47,700
I wouldn't call it precarious.

1737
01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:50,466
I mean, it's all in the 
eye of the beholder,

1738
01:09:50,566 --> 01:09:52,333
but look at how much 
diversity we're finding

1739
01:09:52,433 --> 01:09:54,733
where nobody even 
tried to keep it.

1740
01:09:54,833 --> 01:09:57,033
What if we were trying?

1741
01:09:57,133 --> 01:09:59,166
Imagine what we could achieve.

1742
01:10:00,200 --> 01:10:02,400
Half full, glass half full.

1743
01:10:02,500 --> 01:10:04,133
What was the first 
question though?

1744
01:10:04,233 --> 01:10:06,533
- [Audience] About the 
infrastructure and the frogs.

1745
01:10:06,633 --> 01:10:08,200
- Well, I don't know, you know?

1746
01:10:08,300 --> 01:10:11,566
I think the frogs depend 
a lot on standing water.

1747
01:10:11,666 --> 01:10:13,066
The birds depend 
on tree diversity,

1748
01:10:13,166 --> 01:10:15,166
so they really are responding 
to two different things.

1749
01:10:15,266 --> 01:10:16,733
And I assume that pesticides,

1750
01:10:16,833 --> 01:10:18,600
although I still have 
to run these tests,

1751
01:10:18,700 --> 01:10:20,733
are bad for frogs.

1752
01:10:20,833 --> 01:10:22,200
But I don't know that.

1753
01:10:22,300 --> 01:10:23,633
We've got to run 
some regressions and,

1754
01:10:23,733 --> 01:10:26,600
you know, figure that out.

1755
01:10:26,700 --> 01:10:29,300
I don't think large scale, 
this is a different problem.

1756
01:10:29,400 --> 01:10:31,166
If you move a huge 
amount of water

1757
01:10:31,266 --> 01:10:33,666
from the western part of India 
to the central part of India,

1758
01:10:33,766 --> 01:10:36,400
and you build a big dam, all 
kinds of things are gonna die.

1759
01:10:36,500 --> 01:10:38,066
That's what's gonna happen.

1760
01:10:38,166 --> 01:10:41,633
Having said that, you 
know, not moving that water

1761
01:10:41,733 --> 01:10:43,633
means a bunch of people 
might move somewhere else

1762
01:10:43,733 --> 01:10:45,233
and a bunch of things would die.

1763
01:10:45,333 --> 01:10:48,433
So I think, at this point, you 
have a series of trade-offs.

1764
01:10:48,533 --> 01:10:50,400
That's what 
sustainability's about.

1765
01:10:50,500 --> 01:10:54,066
Like, there's not some 
magic thing we can do.

1766
01:10:54,166 --> 01:10:56,266
We're stuck here together.

1767
01:10:56,366 --> 01:10:58,500
Us, the frogs, you know?

1768
01:10:58,600 --> 01:11:02,100
We're gonna have to just, 
like, muddle through.

1769
01:11:02,200 --> 01:11:06,200
I'm confident we have 
the apparatus to do that.

1770
01:11:06,300 --> 01:11:09,600
And the frogs are 
depending on it, because the 
frogs aren't gonna move.

1771
01:11:09,700 --> 01:11:11,200
These are endemic species.

1772
01:11:11,300 --> 01:11:13,600
You can't just pick them 
up and put them somewhere.

1773
01:11:13,700 --> 01:11:16,433
If you want that diversity, 
you're gonna have to

1774
01:11:16,533 --> 01:11:20,066
put your hand on the 
land and be a steward.

1775
01:11:21,666 --> 01:11:24,033
I don't think we are as gods,

1776
01:11:24,133 --> 01:11:26,966
but we are the biggest,

1777
01:11:27,066 --> 01:11:29,366
noisiest animal, you know?

1778
01:11:29,466 --> 01:11:31,000
And you're gonna 
have to do something.

1779
01:11:31,100 --> 01:11:33,066
You're gonna have 
to make decisions.

1780
01:11:35,866 --> 01:11:38,300
I'm having a lot of fun.

1781
01:11:38,400 --> 01:11:40,366
You have a good group.

1782
01:11:41,700 --> 01:11:43,200
Yeah.

1783
01:11:43,300 --> 01:11:45,833
- [Audience] You 
touched on it a bit

1784
01:11:45,933 --> 01:11:48,166
when you talked about Singapore.

1785
01:11:48,266 --> 01:11:51,266
Would you comment 
on the way forward

1786
01:11:51,366 --> 01:11:55,800
for countries where declining 
birth rate is dramatic

1787
01:11:55,900 --> 01:11:58,533
and serious.

1788
01:11:58,633 --> 01:12:02,000
Like Japan and South 
Korea and industrialized

1789
01:12:02,100 --> 01:12:04,366
most of Europe and so forth.

1790
01:12:05,500 --> 01:12:08,700
What is the way forward 
for those countries?

1791
01:12:08,800 --> 01:12:10,433
Is it immigration?

1792
01:12:11,300 --> 01:12:14,833
- Well, that's outside 
of my pay grade.

1793
01:12:14,933 --> 01:12:16,266
But I would,

1794
01:12:16,366 --> 01:12:19,566
So I'm not gonna punt, I'm 
gonna answer, but it's,

1795
01:12:19,666 --> 01:12:21,300
I don't have an answer to that.

1796
01:12:21,400 --> 01:12:25,133
I mean, my opinion's probably 
as useful as yours is, right?

1797
01:12:25,233 --> 01:12:26,533
Because it's not 
informed very well.

1798
01:12:26,633 --> 01:12:28,600
I haven't done-- 
That's not true.

1799
01:12:28,700 --> 01:12:31,166
I am publishing a paper 
right now on international 
population decline.

1800
01:12:31,266 --> 01:12:33,033
So, yes, I am an expert. 
(audience laughter)

1801
01:12:33,133 --> 01:12:34,666
What I will say is this--

1802
01:12:34,766 --> 01:12:37,433
- [Audience] And 
there's environmental 
impact reports, too,

1803
01:12:37,533 --> 01:12:40,633
to the success in the 
industrialization in other--

1804
01:12:40,733 --> 01:12:42,166
- [Paul] Yes, you bet.

1805
01:12:42,266 --> 01:12:43,666
- [Audience] In 
those countries.

1806
01:12:43,766 --> 01:12:45,133
- But depopulation, 
in many cases,

1807
01:12:45,233 --> 01:12:48,600
is about land abandonment 
and forests coming back.

1808
01:12:48,700 --> 01:12:50,666
The Kuznets curve as 
it's referred to, right?

1809
01:12:50,766 --> 01:12:53,266
I don't fully believe 
in it, but we have seen,

1810
01:12:53,366 --> 01:12:56,033
in countries that have 
developed rapidly,

1811
01:12:56,133 --> 01:12:58,300
we see land abandonment for 
people moving to the city,

1812
01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:00,300
and what happens on the 
land they've abandoned?

1813
01:13:00,400 --> 01:13:01,933
This has happened in the Andes.

1814
01:13:02,033 --> 01:13:03,833
This has happened 
throughout Latin America.

1815
01:13:03,933 --> 01:13:05,433
(imitates explosion)

1816
01:13:05,533 --> 01:13:06,833
Crazy nature comes back.

1817
01:13:06,933 --> 01:13:08,333
It wasn't the nature 
we had before,

1818
01:13:08,433 --> 01:13:09,866
because you can 
never really go back.

1819
01:13:09,966 --> 01:13:13,566
But it's still like, you 
know, forests and whatnot.

1820
01:13:13,666 --> 01:13:17,000
So, depopulation has all kinds 
of interesting implications

1821
01:13:17,100 --> 01:13:19,233
for biodiversity that 
aren't always negative.

1822
01:13:19,333 --> 01:13:21,300
They can be positive.

1823
01:13:21,400 --> 01:13:23,666
What's appropriate 
policy? (scoffs)

1824
01:13:23,766 --> 01:13:25,533
You know, you're 
going to need labor.

1825
01:13:25,633 --> 01:13:27,400
You got an aging population.

1826
01:13:27,500 --> 01:13:30,066
I mean, the biggest 
problem, the global problem,

1827
01:13:30,166 --> 01:13:34,066
is really about ethnicity, 
race, and tolerance.

1828
01:13:34,166 --> 01:13:35,866
You're gonna need 
people who are,

1829
01:13:35,966 --> 01:13:39,133
who's taking care of 
all those aging people?

1830
01:13:39,233 --> 01:13:43,300
Foreign nationals in 
almost all these countries.

1831
01:13:43,400 --> 01:13:46,933
Not in China, yet. 
Somebody has to, you know.

1832
01:13:47,033 --> 01:13:48,400
In populations 
that are shrinking,

1833
01:13:48,500 --> 01:13:52,600
they're also aging, like the 
state of Wisconsin is aging.

1834
01:13:52,700 --> 01:13:55,833
Who is gonna look after 
people as they get older?

1835
01:13:55,933 --> 01:13:57,400
It's a fascinating question.

1836
01:13:57,500 --> 01:13:59,366
For the most part, it 
means foreign nationals.

1837
01:13:59,466 --> 01:14:01,066
It means immigration 
until we've got,

1838
01:14:01,166 --> 01:14:03,633
worked up the robot solution.

1839
01:14:03,733 --> 01:14:05,533
You think I'm kidding.

1840
01:14:05,633 --> 01:14:07,933
I'm totally, like, the 
robots are everywhere.

1841
01:14:08,033 --> 01:14:11,133
I thought it was such a 
1960s thing, the robot, 
but now I see it.

1842
01:14:11,233 --> 01:14:13,100
I was just over at dairy, 
it was all robotic.

1843
01:14:13,200 --> 01:14:15,266
Maybe the robots are gonna 
take care of me when I'm old.

1844
01:14:15,366 --> 01:14:16,666
I have no idea, okay?

1845
01:14:16,766 --> 01:14:18,633
But what I am saying 
is that right now

1846
01:14:18,733 --> 01:14:21,133
the policies are bad because 
they tend to be chauvinistic.

1847
01:14:21,233 --> 01:14:22,966
They tend to be anti-immigrant.

1848
01:14:23,066 --> 01:14:25,866
They tend to be looking a 
gift horse in the mouth,

1849
01:14:25,966 --> 01:14:27,666
which is aspiring 
populations of people

1850
01:14:27,766 --> 01:14:29,500
who are ready to 
labor in an economy

1851
01:14:29,600 --> 01:14:32,633
where the laboring 
population is declining

1852
01:14:32,733 --> 01:14:36,566
and the dependent 
population is aging out.

1853
01:14:36,666 --> 01:14:38,433
So, generally speaking, 
you're gonna have to learn

1854
01:14:38,533 --> 01:14:41,633
to live with strangers 
in your midst.

1855
01:14:41,733 --> 01:14:43,966
And that's, I actually 
think this is,

1856
01:14:44,066 --> 01:14:46,300
the United States has 
actually performed better

1857
01:14:46,400 --> 01:14:48,200
than many of the countries 
you just mentioned.

1858
01:14:48,300 --> 01:14:50,400
Singapore is terrible 
in this regard.

1859
01:14:50,500 --> 01:14:52,133
That's why they want 
more Singaporeans.

1860
01:14:52,233 --> 01:14:53,533
They're trying to 
keep the population

1861
01:14:53,633 --> 01:14:55,233
of all the immigrants 
down while they're trying

1862
01:14:55,333 --> 01:14:57,566
to encourage their own 
population to reproduce,

1863
01:14:57,666 --> 01:14:59,033
and it's hopeless.

1864
01:14:59,133 --> 01:15:01,433
People don't wanna 
have more kids.

1865
01:15:01,533 --> 01:15:02,800
Wealthy people.

1866
01:15:02,900 --> 01:15:06,200
So, that gets into a 
social system, you know,

1867
01:15:06,300 --> 01:15:08,266
about which I am 
strictly an amateur.

1868
01:15:08,366 --> 01:15:12,933
But this is about immigration, 
race, tolerance, diversity.

1869
01:15:13,033 --> 01:15:14,933
Cosmopolitanism.

1870
01:15:16,766 --> 01:15:19,666
Payment for effective labor.

1871
01:15:19,766 --> 01:15:22,633
By effective labor I mean 
who looks after old people,

1872
01:15:22,733 --> 01:15:25,066
who takes care of kids, right?

1873
01:15:25,166 --> 01:15:27,300
You know, that labor force.

1874
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:29,533
This is the most important 
labor force of the 21st century

1875
01:15:29,633 --> 01:15:31,733
precisely because of 
the demographic shift.

1876
01:15:31,833 --> 01:15:34,433
But now we're kind of off 
the sustainability question

1877
01:15:34,533 --> 01:15:37,200
a little bit, but I 
think it's the question.

1878
01:15:37,300 --> 01:15:40,366
There are a lot of smart 
people working on it.

1879
01:15:40,466 --> 01:15:42,466
I'm just not one of them.

1880
01:15:42,566 --> 01:15:44,700
What do you think?

1881
01:15:44,800 --> 01:15:48,500
- [Audience] I agree with some 
of the things that you said.

1882
01:15:48,600 --> 01:15:53,000
That other people 
need to be (mumbles).

1883
01:15:53,100 --> 01:15:54,966
- [Paul] There's 
no way around it.

1884
01:15:58,500 --> 01:16:01,233
- [Audience] And 
this will turn...

1885
01:16:02,933 --> 01:16:07,400
The sustainability, it 
has to be an issue then,

1886
01:16:07,500 --> 01:16:09,233
in those countries.

1887
01:16:09,333 --> 01:16:12,733
- Yes, and there's all 
kinds of opportunities here.

1888
01:16:12,833 --> 01:16:14,466
When you're working 
in the United States

1889
01:16:14,566 --> 01:16:17,033
and you're sending 
remittances home,

1890
01:16:17,133 --> 01:16:19,233
all kinds of things can 
happen on that landscape

1891
01:16:19,333 --> 01:16:21,866
that are possible in a way 
that mining the hell out of it

1892
01:16:21,966 --> 01:16:24,100
for resources when 
you're really hungry

1893
01:16:24,200 --> 01:16:26,633
and you don't have all that 
money coming in from the US,

1894
01:16:26,733 --> 01:16:28,333
it's a worse option.

1895
01:16:28,433 --> 01:16:29,800
And it's an open question.

1896
01:16:29,900 --> 01:16:31,766
There's some empirical research 
that needs to be done here,

1897
01:16:31,866 --> 01:16:33,800
but I would guess 
remittances are probably good

1898
01:16:33,900 --> 01:16:36,233
for the environment in 
the receiving country,

1899
01:16:36,333 --> 01:16:39,600
if I just had to make 
up a hypothesis to test.

1900
01:16:39,700 --> 01:16:41,500
And that can be a good thing.

1901
01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:43,600
So that's kind of the 
sustainability relationship.

1902
01:16:43,700 --> 01:16:46,166
Triple bottom line, right?

1903
01:16:46,266 --> 01:16:49,466
Poor people's 
aspirations, biodiversity,

1904
01:16:49,566 --> 01:16:52,733
environmental protection, yeah.

1905
01:16:52,833 --> 01:16:54,833
So much so, in fact, that 
the environmental groups

1906
01:16:54,933 --> 01:16:56,233
in the United States,

1907
01:16:56,333 --> 01:16:59,466
which historically have been 
somewhat anti-immigrant,

1908
01:16:59,566 --> 01:17:02,533
have changed their 
mind on this question.

1909
01:17:02,633 --> 01:17:05,500
So a number of very, 
very important, notable,

1910
01:17:05,600 --> 01:17:08,533
Sierra Club-like 
organizations have gone

1911
01:17:08,633 --> 01:17:10,900
from flirting with an 
anti-immigrant policy

1912
01:17:11,000 --> 01:17:13,400
to staying out of 
that fight entirely.

1913
01:17:13,500 --> 01:17:15,533
The seat change on this 
has been quite dramatic

1914
01:17:15,633 --> 01:17:18,100
in the environmental 
community, and I salute it.

1915
01:17:20,833 --> 01:17:22,200
Okay.

1916
01:17:22,300 --> 01:17:26,000
- [Shakhashiri] On your first 
point, Paul, about integration.

1917
01:17:27,700 --> 01:17:29,100
- [Paul] Oh, integration 
of the sciences.

1918
01:17:29,200 --> 01:17:30,566
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1919
01:17:30,666 --> 01:17:33,166
- [Shakhashiri] Well, was it 
just 
the integration of sciences

1920
01:17:33,266 --> 01:17:36,966
or integration of 
different forces in society

1921
01:17:37,066 --> 01:17:41,266
to deal with the changes 
that are happening

1922
01:17:42,133 --> 01:17:45,966
either caused by 
humans or otherwise?

1923
01:17:46,066 --> 01:17:49,866
Integration is hard, right?

1924
01:17:49,966 --> 01:17:51,733
- [Paul] Yeah, yeah.

1925
01:17:51,833 --> 01:17:53,900
- [Shakhashiri] By your 
first definition of that.

1926
01:17:54,000 --> 01:17:57,133
- [Paul] Yeah, it's a 
good question, Bassam.

1927
01:18:00,166 --> 01:18:02,833
- [Shakhashiri] So you're 
referring to the integration 
of knowledge.

1928
01:18:02,933 --> 01:18:04,500
- [Paul] Knowledge. As a 
science.

1929
01:18:04,600 --> 01:18:07,033
But, of course, it's because 
of the problem is 
an integrated one.

1930
01:18:07,133 --> 01:18:09,466
I mean, if there's anything 
about the frogs and the birds

1931
01:18:09,566 --> 01:18:12,866
which is universal and 
not just about agroforest,

1932
01:18:12,966 --> 01:18:16,600
it's the fact that if you 
keep chasing the causal chain

1933
01:18:16,700 --> 01:18:20,400
of why here you don't have 
diversity, here you do.

1934
01:18:20,500 --> 01:18:21,566
Why?

1935
01:18:21,666 --> 01:18:23,966
Oh, because farmer 
Jane is doing X.

1936
01:18:24,066 --> 01:18:25,500
Well, why?

1937
01:18:25,600 --> 01:18:28,733
You're gonna wind up 
in a causal network,

1938
01:18:28,833 --> 01:18:30,233
which is gonna be well beyond

1939
01:18:30,333 --> 01:18:33,766
what predator prey 
relationships are gonna explain.

1940
01:18:33,866 --> 01:18:35,833
We're going to get past zoology

1941
01:18:35,933 --> 01:18:37,833
and wildlife biology 
pretty quickly.

1942
01:18:37,933 --> 01:18:39,500
And, in that sense, the 
problem is integrated,

1943
01:18:39,600 --> 01:18:41,300
so the solutions have 
to be integrated.

1944
01:18:41,400 --> 01:18:44,766
What I didn't mention and I 
want to take the chance to do so

1945
01:18:44,866 --> 01:18:49,100
is that this guy here, my 
colleague, that guy is basically

1946
01:18:49,200 --> 01:18:53,966
a political scientist who's 
an expert on agrarian laws

1947
01:18:54,066 --> 01:18:56,300
and political economy 
and incentives

1948
01:18:56,400 --> 01:18:59,133
and institutions 
and stuff like that.

1949
01:18:59,233 --> 01:19:03,800
And my other co-author 
here, Krithi,

1950
01:19:03,900 --> 01:19:06,033
is conservation biologist.

1951
01:19:06,133 --> 01:19:07,533
And I'm whatever I am.

1952
01:19:07,633 --> 01:19:11,133
And we've learned an 
awful lot from each other

1953
01:19:11,233 --> 01:19:12,900
chasing this problem, right.

1954
01:19:13,000 --> 01:19:15,966
And there's no way any of us 
could have done this alone.

1955
01:19:16,066 --> 01:19:18,366
There's just no way we could 
have gotten the answers

1956
01:19:18,466 --> 01:19:19,800
to these questions.

1957
01:19:19,900 --> 01:19:21,666
And we've kind of changed 
our minds about things.

1958
01:19:21,766 --> 01:19:24,633
Krithi comes from a 
very, quite frankly,

1959
01:19:24,733 --> 01:19:27,000
very famous conservation 
biology family,

1960
01:19:27,100 --> 01:19:29,766
and her old man, Ullas 
Karanth, quite well known.

1961
01:19:29,866 --> 01:19:31,633
He's terrific, great scientist.

1962
01:19:31,733 --> 01:19:34,333
Single-handedly saved most of 
the tigers in southern India.

1963
01:19:34,433 --> 01:19:35,933
He just hates people.

1964
01:19:36,033 --> 01:19:38,266
I mean, until recently 
his position has been

1965
01:19:38,366 --> 01:19:39,733
whatever about 
coffee plantations.

1966
01:19:39,833 --> 01:19:42,066
We need to build more 
wildlife parks, right.

1967
01:19:42,166 --> 01:19:43,566
And I see his point, right.

1968
01:19:43,666 --> 01:19:46,233
But in working on this 
project in and around him,

1969
01:19:46,333 --> 01:19:47,866
he's become much softer 
on this question.

1970
01:19:47,966 --> 01:19:52,466
He's like, all right, we 
need parks and some coffee.

1971
01:19:52,566 --> 01:19:54,333
And this is a big change.

1972
01:19:54,433 --> 01:19:57,466
So integration is also about

1973
01:19:57,566 --> 01:19:59,500
the property of emergence.

1974
01:19:59,600 --> 01:20:01,000
That things come out 
of the relationship

1975
01:20:01,100 --> 01:20:04,166
that didn't exist 
before, you know?

1976
01:20:04,266 --> 01:20:07,600
And so, I've changed my 
thinking about a lot of stuff

1977
01:20:07,700 --> 01:20:10,866
by just being in this 
community of scholars,

1978
01:20:10,966 --> 01:20:12,366
'cause the problem 
is too complicated

1979
01:20:12,466 --> 01:20:17,433
for my very narrow training.

1980
01:20:17,533 --> 01:20:20,566
Yeah, so that's the cool thing 
about sustainability, right?

1981
01:20:20,666 --> 01:20:22,033
Now I like sustainability.

1982
01:20:22,133 --> 01:20:24,533
- [Shakhashiri] We hope our own 
thinking will also change

1983
01:20:24,633 --> 01:20:26,533
and help all of us.

1984
01:20:26,633 --> 01:20:27,966
- [Paul] Thanks for having me.

1985
01:20:28,066 --> 01:20:29,933
- [Shakhashiri] Thank you very 
much, Paul.

1986
01:20:30,033 --> 01:20:33,300
(audience applause)