WEBVTT 00:00.866 --> 00:03.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - All right, so, I'm not a chemist, 00:03.600 --> 00:05.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I can't make anything light up, 00:05.333 --> 00:07.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and I can't blow anything up, 00:07.500 --> 00:09.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is much to my consternation 00:09.533 --> 00:11.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% throughout my entire career. 00:11.400 --> 00:13.800 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% I would much prefer to be able 00:13.900 --> 00:16.333 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% to show you something that spectacular. 00:16.433 --> 00:18.766 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% When Dr. Shakhashiri asked me to speak here 00:18.866 --> 00:22.733 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% on the topic of sustainability, I was flabbergasted. 00:22.833 --> 00:26.100 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% In part because that term is either 00:26.200 --> 00:29.633 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% the most important term of the 21st century 00:29.733 --> 00:32.800 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% or the most incoherent and impossible to use. 00:32.900 --> 00:34.266 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% Or both. 00:34.366 --> 00:36.500 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So what I'm gonna try to do is express, 00:36.600 --> 00:41.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% in a really grounded example, what sustainability is. 00:41.500 --> 00:44.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, defined as kind of a normative objective, 00:44.166 --> 00:45.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% like, we want to be sustainable, 00:45.633 --> 00:48.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that's really about achieving the needs of the present 00:48.600 --> 00:51.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% without compromising the needs of the future. 00:51.600 --> 00:53.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I mean, that's good ethics. 00:53.733 --> 00:55.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's a sound normative goal. 00:55.200 --> 00:57.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's what most people who believe in 00:57.166 --> 00:59.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the stewardship of the Earth want to practice, 00:59.600 --> 01:02.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but it is sure easier said than done. 01:02.166 --> 01:05.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In other words, what are we supposed to do 01:05.766 --> 01:09.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% if we want to achieve both outcomes at the same time? 01:09.400 --> 01:11.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Feed everybody. 01:11.400 --> 01:14.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Keep the lights on. Turn the lights on. 01:14.366 --> 01:16.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% 800,000,000 people in Africa are going to 01:16.666 --> 01:18.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% have electricity within the next decade. 01:18.366 --> 01:21.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How they get it is a really, really interesting question. 01:21.466 --> 01:24.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These are people who currently do not have electricity. 01:24.100 --> 01:26.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They don't have refrigerators. They don't have anything. 01:27.000 --> 01:29.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So let me see if I can think a little bit about 01:29.700 --> 01:31.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% what achieving the now 01:31.833 --> 01:33.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and achieving the future might look like. 01:33.400 --> 01:36.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If I threw you out of helicopter in southern India, 01:36.300 --> 01:37.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% hopefully you had a parachute, 01:37.866 --> 01:40.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and dumped you in the southern Ghats 01:40.166 --> 01:42.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% or the Western Ghats in the southern part of the country, 01:42.900 --> 01:44.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% so it's at the southern tip of India. 01:44.566 --> 01:47.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'll show you a map in a moment. It's hilly country up here. 01:47.566 --> 01:50.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You can see it, about 900 meters, deeply forested. 01:50.933 --> 01:52.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I drop ya in there. What are you gonna see? 01:52.966 --> 01:55.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% You're gonna wander around, assuming you haven't broken you legs. 01:55.533 --> 01:57.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're gonna slash your way through the undergrowth, 01:57.166 --> 01:58.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you're gonna find lots of endemic species. 01:58.766 --> 02:01.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're gonna find trees and plants. 02:01.366 --> 02:05.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're gonna feel like you're out, you know, in nature. 02:05.233 --> 02:08.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's my colleague, Dr. Ashwini Chhatre, here in the region. 02:08.800 --> 02:10.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're gonna to see a lot of wildlife, 02:10.600 --> 02:12.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% as I'm gonna show you, you're gonna hear birds. 02:12.566 --> 02:14.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How many birders do we have here? 02:14.433 --> 02:17.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Anybody a birder? Sort of? 02:17.666 --> 02:19.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Usually these places are packed with birders. 02:19.800 --> 02:22.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Okay, well, you'd hear birds. You wouldn't know what they are. 02:22.766 --> 02:24.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But you'd feel like, you know, nature, right? 02:25.033 --> 02:27.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If you were there at night in the middle of a rainstorm, 02:27.766 --> 02:29.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you would hear frogs, you would hear amphibians. 02:29.700 --> 02:31.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You would see all kinds of wildlife. 02:31.633 --> 02:34.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you could wander for miles seeing all this wildlife. 02:34.100 --> 02:36.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But if you ever looked at your feet, 02:36.266 --> 02:40.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% statistically, you are very likely to see the following. 02:40.433 --> 02:43.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Just as a random sample, and what is that? 02:44.066 --> 02:45.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Any guesses? 02:45.933 --> 02:47.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's coffee. 02:47.433 --> 02:49.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Thousands of square kilometers of coffee. 02:49.766 --> 02:52.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Thousands of square kilometers of rubber. 02:52.200 --> 02:54.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Thousands of square kilometers of what is called areca nut, 02:54.800 --> 02:58.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which you chew and you get a little buzz off of. 02:58.233 --> 03:02.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is a export oriented, capitalist economy. 03:02.400 --> 03:03.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Driving onto the, 03:03.800 --> 03:06.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you go to the store and you buy coffee, 03:06.166 --> 03:07.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you might have Indian coffee in there. 03:07.833 --> 03:09.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% If you are driving on tires, 03:09.466 --> 03:11.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% you probably have Indian rubber. 03:11.333 --> 03:13.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Hand-tapped Indian rubber from south India. 03:14.033 --> 03:15.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is a booming economy. 03:15.933 --> 03:17.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is a growing economy. 03:17.533 --> 03:22.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And yet, right, it's fecund with wildlife. 03:23.100 --> 03:25.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That strikes me as a core example 03:25.100 --> 03:26.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of what you might call sustainability. 03:26.666 --> 03:28.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That is, in other words, 03:28.133 --> 03:29.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% something's happening in the present 03:29.966 --> 03:33.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% without, in theory, compromising the future. 03:33.133 --> 03:34.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The biodiversity of the Earth, 03:34.500 --> 03:35.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the sustainability of Earth's systems. 03:36.066 --> 03:37.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If you've got frogs, quite frankly, 03:37.733 --> 03:39.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it means you probably have good water quality. 03:39.833 --> 03:42.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It means you probably have ecosystem services, 03:42.133 --> 03:43.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% as they're called. 03:43.566 --> 03:46.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That is, things that the ecosystem, when it's healthy, 03:46.700 --> 03:50.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% produces for wildlife, means it's producing for the Earth. 03:50.100 --> 03:51.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% All right? 03:51.666 --> 03:54.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Sustainability in a very grounded example. 03:54.266 --> 03:57.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That is a hell of a lot more useful than this definition. 03:57.933 --> 03:59.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's one of my favorites, 03:59.500 --> 04:01.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but this is classic science writing. 04:01.733 --> 04:03.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, this is a definition of sustainability science. 04:03.500 --> 04:06.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And I only want you to look at the words I've bolded. 04:06.366 --> 04:08.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is just my way of saying, 04:08.533 --> 04:10.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% "Yeah, there's some clever scientists who agree with me," 04:10.633 --> 04:12.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% right? 04:12.233 --> 04:15.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The three key words are integration, mitigate, and future. 04:15.133 --> 04:16.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% See those? 04:16.633 --> 04:18.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Integration means, if you're thinking about sustainability, 04:18.833 --> 04:21.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the needs of the present, you've gotta think about what? 04:21.433 --> 04:23.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, think about the Indian example. 04:23.500 --> 04:26.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What do you have to think about in the present? 04:27.800 --> 04:29.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What are those folks living down there 04:29.933 --> 04:31.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in India thinking about? 04:31.533 --> 04:32.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What's that? Sorry. 04:32.933 --> 04:34.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Food. - Food. 04:34.400 --> 04:35.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They have to put food on the table. 04:35.866 --> 04:37.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're either growing it themselves 04:37.100 --> 04:38.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% or they've gotta sell coffee to buy it. 04:38.933 --> 04:40.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're thinking about food. 04:40.266 --> 04:41.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What else are they thinking about? 04:42.066 --> 04:43.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're thinking about water. 04:43.600 --> 04:45.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Some of these coffee plantations are irrigated. 04:45.333 --> 04:46.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're thinking about water. 04:46.666 --> 04:48.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They are thinking about the now, right? 04:48.633 --> 04:50.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But that also means they're thinking about the economy. 04:50.900 --> 04:52.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're thinking about what they can bear on the market, 04:53.066 --> 04:54.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% right, when they sell their coffee. 04:54.600 --> 04:56.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They are thinking about their family. 04:56.266 --> 04:57.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're thinking about the social relationships 04:57.766 --> 04:59.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% with their neighbors, they're thinking about 04:59.666 --> 05:01.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% how much they have to pay their workers. 05:01.433 --> 05:03.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In other words, if you're gonna think about sustainability, 05:03.533 --> 05:04.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% you have to be integrated. 05:04.866 --> 05:06.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You need to be thinking about economics. 05:06.633 --> 05:08.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You need to be thinking about social relationships. 05:08.633 --> 05:10.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You need to be thinkin' about frogs. 05:10.300 --> 05:11.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% As it turns out, none of these farmers 05:11.833 --> 05:13.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% actually give a damn about frogs, sadly. 05:13.800 --> 05:15.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But they protect them accidentally. 05:15.966 --> 05:18.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And we're gonna come back to that in just a minute. 05:18.466 --> 05:19.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The point is it needs to be integrated. 05:19.933 --> 05:21.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% To understand what's going on for the future, 05:21.933 --> 05:23.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% you have to do a lot. 05:23.633 --> 05:25.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Am I too loud? 05:25.466 --> 05:27.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% He's covering his ears, I'm so concerned. 05:27.933 --> 05:30.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Oh, okay, as long as you're all right. 05:30.400 --> 05:32.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Two, mitigate. 05:32.266 --> 05:33.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What does it mean to mitigate? 05:33.700 --> 05:36.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It means that we know we have a presence on the Earth, 05:36.166 --> 05:38.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% right, humanity has a hand on the Earth 05:38.266 --> 05:39.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that transforms Earth's systems. 05:40.066 --> 05:41.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% There is no getting around it. 05:41.566 --> 05:43.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When we're done with population growth, 05:43.600 --> 05:45.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and I'm a little more optimistic than Bassam here, 05:46.033 --> 05:47.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we'll be about 9,000,000,000 people on the Earth. 05:47.966 --> 05:49.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That is nothin' to sneeze at. 05:49.300 --> 05:50.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Maybe 10,000,000,000. 05:50.866 --> 05:52.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When growth stops at the middle of this century. 05:52.933 --> 05:54.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's still a lot of people, right? 05:54.933 --> 05:56.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You can't not impact the Earth. 05:56.900 --> 06:01.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Climate change is the signature of human industry. 06:01.300 --> 06:04.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Like it or not. We are present on the Earth. 06:04.100 --> 06:06.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How do we mitigate that presence in a way 06:06.600 --> 06:08.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that we can sustain the future, right? 06:08.233 --> 06:09.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's the second word, right? 06:09.700 --> 06:12.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, integrate, mitigate, and the third one is future. 06:12.733 --> 06:14.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That the sustainability people are always thinkin' 06:14.533 --> 06:15.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% about the future. 06:15.900 --> 06:17.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% All right, what does that look like? 06:17.433 --> 06:19.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In practice, most sustainability experts 06:19.600 --> 06:21.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% talk about this as the triple bottom line. 06:21.500 --> 06:23.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's not a term I particularly like. 06:24.000 --> 06:26.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But you can see what they're trying to get at with this diagram. 06:26.733 --> 06:28.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If you look up here, what you're seeing 06:28.700 --> 06:30.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is that you're trying to sustain economy. 06:30.700 --> 06:33.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Whether or not you need economic growth is a debatable question, 06:33.500 --> 06:35.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but you're trying to sustain the economy. 06:35.500 --> 06:37.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These farmers aren't going to do things that make them poor, 06:37.833 --> 06:40.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% broke, or can't send their kids to school, right? 06:40.666 --> 06:43.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're not stupid, they're smart. 06:43.266 --> 06:45.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So they're thinkin' about the economy. 06:45.100 --> 06:47.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% At the same time, we have to think about environmental stewardship. 06:48.066 --> 06:52.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If we blow all the water resources in the now, 06:52.800 --> 06:54.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we won't have it in the then, right? 06:54.700 --> 06:56.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So you're thinking about environmental stewardship, 06:56.366 --> 06:58.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but you're also thinking about social progress. 06:58.466 --> 07:02.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is a nation of more than a billion people 07:02.800 --> 07:04.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that have aspirations. 07:04.766 --> 07:07.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They want access to the science and technology 07:07.233 --> 07:09.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that is their human right, right? 07:09.466 --> 07:10.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% All three of those things. 07:10.966 --> 07:14.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And we'd like to think that if we could just get one, 07:14.566 --> 07:17.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the other two would just kind of sort themselves out. 07:17.866 --> 07:19.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% If we just saved the planet, 07:19.700 --> 07:21.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% why, everybody would be developed. 07:21.833 --> 07:24.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Or if we just built the economy big enough, 07:24.466 --> 07:25.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% then the environment would be saved. 07:25.766 --> 07:28.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But the truth is, it's harder than that. 07:28.266 --> 07:30.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There are trade-offs and there are relationships. 07:30.300 --> 07:32.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So what I'm gonna do with the remainder of the time here 07:32.900 --> 07:36.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is just show you a grounded example, it's all pictures, 07:36.500 --> 07:39.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% from India about what those trade-offs look like. 07:39.400 --> 07:42.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When you're trying to defend an economy, right, 07:42.166 --> 07:44.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% an export oriented economy and, at the same time, 07:44.666 --> 07:47.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% you're thinking about biodiversity and social progress. 07:47.533 --> 07:50.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That is, the rights of working people around the world. 07:50.766 --> 07:52.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So we'll go back to our example. 07:52.666 --> 07:54.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And the example takes place amidst, 07:54.333 --> 07:56.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and this is the last word I'll throw at you, 07:56.866 --> 07:59.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% an era that many scientists, including geologists, 07:59.400 --> 08:01.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% stratigraphers most specifically, 08:01.166 --> 08:03.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the people who study the Earth's strata, 08:03.766 --> 08:05.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% right, the layers of rock and soil, 08:05.833 --> 08:07.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% they call this the Anthropocene. 08:07.966 --> 08:09.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's a debated term. 08:09.433 --> 08:12.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But it means a geologic era that succeeds the Holocene, 08:12.866 --> 08:14.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that comes after the Holocene, 08:14.800 --> 08:17.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in which we simply admit that the human footprint 08:18.066 --> 08:20.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is actually in the Earth's geology. 08:20.133 --> 08:21.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When did it start, 10,000 years ago? 08:21.900 --> 08:23.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Did it start 200 years ago? 08:23.366 --> 08:26.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Did it start in the 1950s with nuclear weapons? 08:26.666 --> 08:27.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These are debates that stratigraphers 08:27.966 --> 08:30.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are actually having right now, right. 08:31.033 --> 08:32.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're actually debating in closed rooms 08:33.033 --> 08:35.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% whether or not to rename our geologic era the Anthropocene. 08:35.933 --> 08:37.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But my point about putting this slide up 08:37.633 --> 08:39.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is simply to say that it is contested. 08:39.366 --> 08:41.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Think about that. 08:41.566 --> 08:42.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're trying to sustain the future 08:42.900 --> 08:44.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in a world that's actually changing. 08:44.566 --> 08:45.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's like a moving target. 08:45.866 --> 08:47.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's enormously difficult. 08:47.500 --> 08:50.366 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It's very, intimidatingly difficult. 08:50.466 --> 08:53.066 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% We have climate change, we have new ecosystems, 08:53.166 --> 08:54.700 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% we have altered geomorphology, 08:54.800 --> 08:56.266 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% we have altered biogeochemistry, 08:56.366 --> 08:58.900 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and this causes lots of very smart scientists 08:59.000 --> 09:00.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% to disagree with one another. 09:00.933 --> 09:03.666 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% In the bottom left, we have a series of conservation biologists who say 09:03.766 --> 09:05.966 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% the world is basically coming to an end. (laughs) 09:06.066 --> 09:09.333 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% That we need to get people off the land, in a sense. 09:09.433 --> 09:11.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In the upper right, you have a journalist, an Emma Maris, 09:12.033 --> 09:13.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who has interviewed other scientists, 09:13.533 --> 09:15.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who says, actually, you know what? 09:15.233 --> 09:18.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're gardening the planet, we might as well just admit it. 09:18.966 --> 09:20.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We have this heavy hand. 09:20.333 --> 09:22.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We should just make responsible, creative choices. 09:22.700 --> 09:24.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is a very divisive debate. 09:24.300 --> 09:26.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And it is the fundamental question in sustainability. 09:26.866 --> 09:28.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So let's go to my case example 09:28.800 --> 09:32.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that I'll kind of close out the conversation with here. 09:32.133 --> 09:34.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And this comes from National Science Foundation 09:34.366 --> 09:36.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% funded research that I'm doing with my colleagues 09:36.500 --> 09:38.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in India and around the country. 09:38.866 --> 09:40.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And it's a very simple question. 09:40.700 --> 09:43.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If we go back to those coffee plantations, 09:43.366 --> 09:44.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we go back to those rubber plantations, 09:45.033 --> 09:47.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we're gonna ask ourselves a really simple question: 09:47.533 --> 09:49.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% is there nature there? 09:49.266 --> 09:50.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Is there biodiversity? 09:50.666 --> 09:52.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When do you get that biodiversity? 09:52.466 --> 09:55.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When is the landscape fecund with all this wildlife, 09:55.666 --> 09:57.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and when is it basically a desert? 09:57.133 --> 09:59.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Because if you go from one coffee plantation to another 09:59.733 --> 10:01.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to another, what you're going to find is 10:01.766 --> 10:05.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% some seem to be really productive and some don't. 10:05.100 --> 10:06.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And if you're interested in sustainability, right, 10:07.066 --> 10:09.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% you're interested in what it is 10:09.500 --> 10:13.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that causes people to manage the land 10:13.133 --> 10:15.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in a way that produces all that biodiversity for the future. 10:15.533 --> 10:16.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Why do they do it? 10:16.933 --> 10:19.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Why, 'cause like I said, there's not money in frogs, 10:19.366 --> 10:21.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I can tell you. There's money in coffee. 10:21.833 --> 10:24.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So that's the project. Pictures. 10:24.800 --> 10:26.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is a map here. 10:26.266 --> 10:29.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I don't think I've got a laser pointer here. 10:29.466 --> 10:31.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (someone speaks off mic) 10:31.233 --> 10:32.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% There's one here? 10:33.066 --> 10:34.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Is that this guy? 10:36.833 --> 10:38.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% (excited exclamation) So the southern Ghats, 10:38.500 --> 10:41.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% this is the southern tip of India, down here, like this. 10:41.966 --> 10:43.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Pakistan is up here. 10:43.600 --> 10:45.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Myanmar, Burma, is over here. 10:45.300 --> 10:46.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is the southwestern part. 10:47.033 --> 10:48.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is the Western Ghats. 10:48.366 --> 10:51.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Those little brown splotches that you see there 10:51.166 --> 10:53.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are tiger reserves or nature parks. 10:53.400 --> 10:55.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What's the one thing you notice about this? 10:55.766 --> 10:58.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Most of the land is not in protected areas. 10:58.400 --> 11:00.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Most of the land, right, is owned by people. 11:00.866 --> 11:03.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Private owners who grow stuff for the market, right. 11:03.933 --> 11:05.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Most of the landscape, 11:05.400 --> 11:08.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and we've made a lot of new parks in India, but frankly, 11:08.466 --> 11:10.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in the end, what happens outside the parks 11:10.633 --> 11:12.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is more important than what happens inside the parks. 11:12.433 --> 11:14.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's true in the U.S. It's true in India. 11:14.566 --> 11:15.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's true everywhere. 11:15.900 --> 11:17.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's where sustainability has to happen. 11:17.500 --> 11:20.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We can't make the entire Earth a nature park, right. 11:20.433 --> 11:21.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% People have to live somewhere. 11:21.966 --> 11:24.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Okay, so we're out here with our colleagues 11:24.666 --> 11:26.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% from the Wildlife Conservation Society 11:26.166 --> 11:27.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and the Center for Wildlife Studies, 11:27.666 --> 11:29.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and we're just tryin' to figure out, 11:29.133 --> 11:31.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in this particular region in southwestern Karnataka, 11:31.433 --> 11:32.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% where we see wildlife. 11:32.800 --> 11:34.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We wanted to do fauna, it's very hard to, 11:34.233 --> 11:37.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% this is like an animal assembled by committee. 11:37.133 --> 11:39.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's the strangest lookin' thing. 11:39.133 --> 11:40.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We're not counting these. 11:40.633 --> 11:42.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're mostly counting birds and frogs 11:42.100 --> 11:43.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% because they're easier to find 11:44.066 --> 11:47.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and because they are indicative of ecosystem health, right. 11:47.133 --> 11:49.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So if we've got lots of birds and we've got lots of frogs, 11:49.766 --> 11:51.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we know something's goin' right. 11:51.300 --> 11:52.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Something's going on sustainably. 11:53.066 --> 11:55.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I won't get down into this except to say that 11:55.300 --> 11:57.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it's wet down here on the left side and dry on the right, 11:57.933 --> 12:02.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is why 30% of the biodiversity of southern Asia 12:02.900 --> 12:04.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is right here in this one region. 12:04.633 --> 12:06.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So this is a, "Why rob banks?" 12:06.866 --> 12:08.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Why rob banks? 12:08.233 --> 12:09.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% 'Cause that's where the money is. 12:10.033 --> 12:11.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Why count birds and frogs down here? 12:11.600 --> 12:13.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% 'Cause it's where all the biodiversity is, okay. 12:13.400 --> 12:15.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, we're lookin' for it in the right place. 12:15.166 --> 12:16.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is what it looks like at elevation. 12:16.833 --> 12:18.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You see forest, you see open grasslands. 12:18.566 --> 12:21.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is very human influenced. It's an Anthropocene landscape. 12:21.133 --> 12:23.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% People have totally remade this landscape. 12:23.933 --> 12:25.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And what do we see? 12:25.533 --> 12:27.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Thousands of square kilometers of coffee. 12:27.666 --> 12:29.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Thousands of square kilometers of rubber. 12:29.700 --> 12:31.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And of areca nut. 12:31.166 --> 12:33.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What's really interesting, like rubber, I had never gone, 12:33.233 --> 12:34.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% this is a new project for me. 12:34.900 --> 12:37.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I didn't know people still grew rubber. 12:37.166 --> 12:41.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% 1/4 of the rubber that you encounter is actually hand-tapped 12:41.366 --> 12:42.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in India or southeast Asia. 12:42.966 --> 12:47.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a remarkably enormous global economy. 12:47.500 --> 12:48.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is what coffee looks like. 12:48.900 --> 12:50.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The coffee's growing down under here. 12:50.866 --> 12:52.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Here we have silver oak, 12:52.300 --> 12:54.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is actually not even an indigenous species. 12:54.300 --> 12:55.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Most of these land holdings are really small. 12:56.000 --> 12:57.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These are small producers, they're not poor, 12:57.966 --> 12:59.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but they're not like big global corporations, right. 12:59.900 --> 13:02.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is mom and pop operations, okay. 13:02.500 --> 13:04.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Here's what rubber looks like, that's hand-tapped. 13:04.533 --> 13:07.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You can see they score the side of the tree. 13:07.233 --> 13:10.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And then the sap, right, the latex, runs into these. 13:10.866 --> 13:13.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It is flattened out, dried, and then sold on a market. 13:14.033 --> 13:16.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And this is a huge global market. 13:16.100 --> 13:18.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% There are certain products that can only be made with hand-tapped rubber. 13:19.000 --> 13:21.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So this is a big economy. And this is areca nut. 13:21.500 --> 13:23.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's a nut, it's a palm, it grows way up here. 13:23.900 --> 13:25.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You cut it down, you grind it up. 13:25.733 --> 13:28.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you chew it, and you get a little head buzz. 13:28.466 --> 13:30.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's a big business. Okay. 13:30.933 --> 13:32.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is the science part. 13:32.633 --> 13:34.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Our question is very simple. 13:34.466 --> 13:37.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When you see biodiversity, what are farmers doing? 13:37.466 --> 13:38.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What are they doing? 13:38.966 --> 13:40.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And if you see farmers doing stuff 13:40.700 --> 13:42.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that produces biodiversity, why do they do it? 13:42.666 --> 13:45.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Is it because they get good farm gate prices? 13:45.133 --> 13:47.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Is is because they're in cooperatives? 13:47.833 --> 13:50.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What makes people do the things that we desire 13:50.400 --> 13:52.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% if we wanna see sustainability? 13:52.433 --> 13:54.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Right, knowing that there's no money in frogs, 13:55.033 --> 13:56.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% why would you have frogs then? 13:56.833 --> 13:58.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What would produce that effect? 13:58.800 --> 14:01.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And to find that out, it means you have to sample 14:01.266 --> 14:04.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of plantations 14:04.133 --> 14:06.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% all throughout the southern part of this country. 14:06.700 --> 14:08.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And it is a pain in the butt. 14:08.900 --> 14:11.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We have bird count points 14:11.866 --> 14:14.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% where you go out into the forest, 14:14.233 --> 14:16.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you get a random spot, and then you develop 14:17.033 --> 14:21.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% a series of orthogonal spots 14:21.100 --> 14:24.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% or sampling sites inside the plantation. 14:24.766 --> 14:28.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you stand there for three days in a row at dawn and dusk 14:28.200 --> 14:30.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you listen and you count the birds. 14:30.233 --> 14:32.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And the people who do this are incredibly talented. 14:32.833 --> 14:35.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We have 11 volunteers and six interns. 14:35.266 --> 14:38.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Hundreds of people apply to join this science project, actually. 14:38.100 --> 14:40.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And then they have to take a test to identify the birds. 14:40.566 --> 14:42.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And they all say they're really good at birds. 14:42.733 --> 14:45.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And most of them just do not pass the test. 14:45.133 --> 14:46.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I couldn't pass this test. 14:46.666 --> 14:49.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% To get into this club, you've got to be able to 14:49.233 --> 14:50.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% identify hundred of birds species by ear. 14:50.866 --> 14:52.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's quite remarkable. 14:52.366 --> 14:55.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And then also take other kinds of measurements 14:55.233 --> 14:57.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% on the landscape to control for various variables. 14:57.866 --> 14:59.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The point is, did we find birds? 14:59.533 --> 15:00.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You better believe it. 15:01.000 --> 15:03.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We found enormous biodiversity 15:03.866 --> 15:05.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in these fully productive landscapes. 15:05.766 --> 15:07.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Birds, for those of you who do like birds, 15:08.066 --> 15:10.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the southern Ghats is a great place to take a week. 15:10.866 --> 15:13.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And just go up to one of these coffee plantations. 15:13.433 --> 15:16.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Get yourself into a hammock with a bird book 15:16.966 --> 15:21.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and a camera and a glass of wine. 15:21.233 --> 15:23.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you're good, you know, for days on end. 15:23.900 --> 15:26.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're seeing a lot of endemic species, 15:26.500 --> 15:28.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% but also migratory species. 15:28.100 --> 15:29.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, all these really important Asian species 15:29.766 --> 15:32.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that migrate all the way from Siberia down to Sri Lanka 15:33.000 --> 15:36.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are passing through coffee and rubber and areca. 15:36.166 --> 15:38.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And they need it, it's habitat. 15:38.466 --> 15:41.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They are thriving, not in spite of what people are doing, 15:41.333 --> 15:43.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but because certain people are doing something. 15:43.533 --> 15:45.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What are they doing, what are they doing? 15:45.800 --> 15:47.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a great question, it's a science question. 15:47.700 --> 15:49.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You gotta go find out, it's an empirical question. 15:50.033 --> 15:52.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% More birds. Lots of 'em. 15:52.200 --> 15:56.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The Asian paradise flycatcher. Just fabulously beautiful birds. 15:56.133 --> 15:58.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Are we seeing lots of species? Yes. 15:58.266 --> 16:00.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Rubber is among the-- And this was quite a surprise, 16:00.600 --> 16:02.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we figured this would be a desert. 16:02.333 --> 16:03.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We are seeing, in a highly productive 16:03.900 --> 16:05.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% industrial landscape, lots of species. 16:05.833 --> 16:08.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And rubber also produced the highest number of migrant species. 16:09.000 --> 16:11.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So those flying birds that come down from Asia 16:11.633 --> 16:13.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% all the way to there, depending, in other words, 16:13.733 --> 16:17.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% at least on whatever habitat is being created artificially. 16:17.433 --> 16:19.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And this is like science stuff. 16:19.333 --> 16:21.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But the key, what these diagrams show you is that 16:21.733 --> 16:23.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% different types of birds like different types of landscapes. 16:23.966 --> 16:26.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So if they eat fruits, they like certain places. 16:26.200 --> 16:29.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And if they like bugs, they like different kinds of places. 16:29.133 --> 16:30.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The point here is these are guilds of birds. 16:31.000 --> 16:33.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is biodiversity. This is conservation biology. 16:33.800 --> 16:36.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But usually, where do you do conservation biology 16:36.200 --> 16:37.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% if you're a conservation biologist? 16:37.866 --> 16:40.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Where do you do it, if you're, like, a science person? 16:40.466 --> 16:42.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% A woman or man who studies conservation biology. 16:42.566 --> 16:43.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Where do you go? 16:45.966 --> 16:47.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Where do you think you go? 16:47.766 --> 16:49.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You go to wilderness. 16:49.233 --> 16:52.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You go to the last five places with a fence around them. 16:52.166 --> 16:54.500 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% What's crazy here is that we've got conservation biologists 16:54.600 --> 16:56.633 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% out marching around in areas 16:56.733 --> 16:59.566 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% that are really fully anthropogenic, 16:59.666 --> 17:01.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% created by humanity. 17:01.933 --> 17:03.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And then amphibian sampling, much harder. 17:03.933 --> 17:05.966 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It has to be done in the middle of the night. 17:06.066 --> 17:07.866 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It has to be done during the rainy season. 17:07.966 --> 17:09.700 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And it has to be done in coffee plantations 17:09.800 --> 17:11.566 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% that are like 45 degree slopes. 17:11.666 --> 17:14.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And that is why we have graduate students. 17:14.666 --> 17:16.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (audience laughter) 17:16.466 --> 17:18.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These guys are really good, all right. 17:18.566 --> 17:21.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And they are out there all night, all season, 17:21.100 --> 17:23.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% tromping around in the mud, and they're listening, right. 17:23.900 --> 17:26.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're identifying these species by ear 17:26.400 --> 17:28.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that when they find them, they turn over the leaf 17:28.700 --> 17:30.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and they give us a photographic record 17:30.400 --> 17:31.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% of the diversity they see. 17:31.700 --> 17:33.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And what are we seeing? 17:33.400 --> 17:35.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We are seeing gliding frogs. 17:35.433 --> 17:40.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We are seeing weirdly adapted endemic species. 17:41.000 --> 17:44.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We are seeing south Asia's smallest frog, right. 17:44.800 --> 17:47.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Teeming in these ponds, where, as it turns out, 17:47.766 --> 17:49.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% there's very few pesticides that are used. 17:49.466 --> 17:51.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That turns out to be the big kicker here. 17:51.433 --> 17:53.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We are seeing a frog here 17:53.766 --> 17:56.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that was actually rediscovered in 2000. 17:56.166 --> 17:59.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% This was considered extinct, and we were finding them in large numbers. 17:59.333 --> 18:02.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Where? Again, in a human-made world. 18:02.866 --> 18:04.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And finally, this is our prized frog. 18:04.633 --> 18:06.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This was new to science in 2008. 18:06.733 --> 18:09.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We didn't discover it, but somebody else did in 2008, 18:09.233 --> 18:11.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and it's critically endangered species. 18:11.766 --> 18:13.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And we're finding it where? 18:13.600 --> 18:14.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Not out in the wilderness. 18:15.000 --> 18:18.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're finding it in a sustainably managed landscape. 18:18.566 --> 18:19.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% All right? 18:20.033 --> 18:22.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, what are people doing that produces this effect? 18:22.466 --> 18:24.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'll tell you that the main thing that predicts 18:24.333 --> 18:27.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% whether you're going to have bird diversity is the diversity of your trees. 18:27.300 --> 18:29.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Some places have much more thick canopy. 18:29.733 --> 18:31.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Others have much more open canopy. 18:31.200 --> 18:33.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Both of these are coffee plantations, right. 18:33.866 --> 18:37.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Some places have lots of different tree species. 18:37.900 --> 18:41.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And some plantations have just basically a monoculture. 18:41.133 --> 18:43.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That means one type of tree species. 18:43.566 --> 18:45.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This, again, is silver oak imported by the British 18:45.433 --> 18:46.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% during the colonial era. 18:46.800 --> 18:48.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is gonna give you more birds than this, 18:48.700 --> 18:50.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% according to our study, right. 18:50.466 --> 18:53.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We think that's a statistically defensible claim, all right. 18:54.066 --> 18:56.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And then whether you have these weird kind of ground covers 18:56.900 --> 18:58.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% also makes a big difference for frogs and stuff. 18:58.933 --> 19:01.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So farmers are making decisions that are producing wildlife, 19:02.066 --> 19:03.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but they're not doing it to produce wildlife. 19:03.933 --> 19:05.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So why the heck are they doing it? 19:05.700 --> 19:07.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm coming to the end here. 19:07.100 --> 19:11.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% To answer that, you can't count frogs. 19:11.466 --> 19:13.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Sustainability science is integrated science. 19:13.866 --> 19:16.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So that means we have to talk to actual people. 19:16.966 --> 19:19.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And we talked to 1,000 plantation owners 19:19.566 --> 19:21.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and asked them why the heck they do what they do. 19:21.966 --> 19:23.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And I can tell you the one thing 19:23.933 --> 19:27.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that did not predict whether people had biodiversity or not 19:27.233 --> 19:29.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% is their education level. 19:29.500 --> 19:32.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This guy has got a master's degree in agronomy. 19:32.266 --> 19:34.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This guy does not have a grade school education. 19:34.600 --> 19:35.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And there's everything in between. 19:35.900 --> 19:38.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And some of them are producing biodiversity 19:38.233 --> 19:39.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and some of them aren't. 19:39.666 --> 19:41.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And education doesn't seem to be the reason. 19:41.633 --> 19:43.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So, what is going on? 19:43.600 --> 19:45.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Why, when, in particular, 19:46.000 --> 19:47.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% are they opening up the canopy, 19:47.766 --> 19:50.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is bad for birds, or reducing the diversity of trees, 19:50.333 --> 19:52.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is bad for birds, for example? 19:52.500 --> 19:57.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Our prediction was farm gate prices, the economy. 19:57.333 --> 19:59.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, again, sustainability science can't just be about 19:59.500 --> 20:00.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% the sociology of the farmers. 20:01.033 --> 20:02.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And it can't just be about the birds. 20:02.900 --> 20:04.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It can't be about the frogs. 20:04.300 --> 20:05.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We'd have to actually understand the coffee economy. 20:06.000 --> 20:07.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What is this? 20:07.133 --> 20:08.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This shows two different kinds of coffee. 20:08.666 --> 20:10.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Arabica is the expensive coffee that you get 20:10.500 --> 20:12.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% when you're at Starbucks. 20:12.100 --> 20:14.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Robusta coffee is the stuff that you get in instant coffee. 20:15.033 --> 20:16.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's a real quality difference. 20:17.033 --> 20:19.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This stuff is easy to produce. 20:19.300 --> 20:20.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And it's produced in large quantities. 20:21.033 --> 20:24.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is much fussier, requires more tree species diversity. 20:24.633 --> 20:25.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's harder to make. 20:26.033 --> 20:28.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If the price of arabica coffee goes down far enough, 20:28.666 --> 20:30.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% this is what this diagram is telling you, 20:30.766 --> 20:32.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it's in my interest as a coffee grower 20:32.733 --> 20:34.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to just abandon arabica and say, 20:34.866 --> 20:37.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% "To hell with it, I'm gonna grow robusta." 20:37.500 --> 20:39.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And what would that mean? 20:39.300 --> 20:42.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Now I don't have to keep the diversity of tree species, 20:42.133 --> 20:44.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% now the canopy can open up, and what happens? 20:44.433 --> 20:46.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% My biodiversity goes down. 20:46.366 --> 20:48.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So they're responding to markets. 20:48.200 --> 20:49.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's the one thing. 20:49.733 --> 20:51.566 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And the second thing they told us, 20:51.666 --> 20:54.300 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and this is the key finding, and I'm almost done, 20:54.400 --> 20:56.700 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% the second thing they told us is 20:56.800 --> 20:59.700 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% workers these days are too damn lazy. 20:59.800 --> 21:01.100 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% Back in my father's day 21:01.200 --> 21:02.966 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% when my father owned this plantation, 21:03.066 --> 21:05.500 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% workers would work 12 hours without a cigarette break 21:05.600 --> 21:07.133 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and they wouldn't complain. 21:07.233 --> 21:09.633 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And now, you know, they want cigarette breaks. 21:09.733 --> 21:12.466 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% They want electricity in their homes. 21:12.566 --> 21:14.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% They want healthcare, you know. 21:14.333 --> 21:16.733 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% They wanna be human beings, in other words. 21:16.833 --> 21:20.066 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And they've got the power, for the first time in history, 21:20.166 --> 21:22.033 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% to walk away from those plantation owners 21:22.133 --> 21:25.000 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% if those plantation owners don't deliver the goods. 21:25.100 --> 21:27.333 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% That is, they can just walk, 21:27.433 --> 21:29.300 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% which means these workers are getting, 21:29.400 --> 21:31.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% in other words, higher wages, right. 21:31.333 --> 21:34.200 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% There's a labor economy which determines 21:34.300 --> 21:36.600 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% whether or not you can have biodiversity of trees, 21:36.700 --> 21:38.533 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% which determines whether or not your plantation 21:38.633 --> 21:41.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% is, essentially, sustainable for the future. 21:41.500 --> 21:43.966 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So this is my last question. 21:44.066 --> 21:46.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% How is it that workers today 21:46.333 --> 21:48.800 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% can walk away from a plantation in India, 21:48.900 --> 21:51.433 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% when they couldn't in the last generation? 21:51.533 --> 21:55.200 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% When those guys fathers ran the plantation? 21:56.200 --> 21:59.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How can they do it now that they couldn't do it before? 21:59.733 --> 22:02.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a great mystery to me, and I was quite surprised 22:02.300 --> 22:04.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% when we learned what it was. 22:05.033 --> 22:06.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Let's think about supply and demand. 22:06.866 --> 22:08.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Think about economics. 22:08.866 --> 22:10.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Got a guess? 22:11.200 --> 22:13.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How can they command a higher wage? 22:13.400 --> 22:15.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] There's not as many of them? 22:15.933 --> 22:19.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - There's not as many of them. 22:19.300 --> 22:21.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% In fact... 22:21.200 --> 22:23.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Labor, and this gives you a sense of 22:23.433 --> 22:25.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what labor looks like on some of these farms, 22:25.233 --> 22:27.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% this guy will go up here in the morning at 8:00 AM. 22:27.666 --> 22:30.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% He'll harvest, and he won't come down until 3:00 PM. 22:30.166 --> 22:33.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, he just goes from tree to tree cutting down areca nut. 22:33.966 --> 22:36.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And it cuts down, this guy bags it down here, 22:36.700 --> 22:40.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% and she works her tail off to kind of process it and then move it along. 22:40.133 --> 22:41.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is labor demanding stuff. 22:41.633 --> 22:43.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is back-breaking work, right? 22:43.533 --> 22:46.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But look, through all of the southern part of India, 22:46.366 --> 22:47.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% which is where we are, 22:47.733 --> 22:50.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the fertility rate, that's the average number 22:50.266 --> 22:52.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of children that a woman has in their lifetime, 22:52.600 --> 22:54.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% has fallen underneath two. 22:54.200 --> 22:56.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's been underneath two for over a generation. 22:56.466 --> 22:59.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If your fertility rate is under two on average, 22:59.466 --> 23:01.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what's happening to the population? 23:01.933 --> 23:04.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's declining, it's declining. 23:04.700 --> 23:08.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's happening, it's happening in our lifetime. 23:08.300 --> 23:11.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And it means we're running, stick with me on this, 23:11.600 --> 23:14.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we're running out of workers in India. 23:14.433 --> 23:16.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% This is the most counterintuitive finding I've ever seen in my life. 23:16.866 --> 23:19.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Now, some of it is that they're moving to cities. 23:19.166 --> 23:20.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Fast urbanization is going on. 23:20.800 --> 23:23.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Some of it is that they're going to the Gulf states 23:23.600 --> 23:26.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to take higher paying work in places like 23:26.266 --> 23:29.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the United Arab Emirates and other places that need labor. 23:29.600 --> 23:32.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But some of it is, you know what, there's just not 23:32.100 --> 23:34.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% as many this generation as there was before. 23:34.400 --> 23:37.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Something big is happening, right. 23:37.733 --> 23:40.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So let's walk through, as I conclude, 23:40.466 --> 23:42.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what we kind of learned about sustainability. 23:42.600 --> 23:44.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If we're thinking about the future, preserving biodiversity, 23:44.933 --> 23:47.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% preserving water resources, using fewer chemicals, right. 23:47.766 --> 23:50.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're thinking about the future, all right. 23:50.200 --> 23:52.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That depends on the farm economics 23:52.366 --> 23:55.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of people involved in a global capitalist economy, 23:55.433 --> 23:57.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% like the decisions they make. 23:57.100 --> 23:59.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And those decisions are predicated 23:59.600 --> 24:02.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% on things they can't control, like the price of coffee 24:03.033 --> 24:04.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and the price of labor. 24:04.700 --> 24:06.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And those things are in turn controlled by 24:06.966 --> 24:09.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% global forces that are so mysterious 24:09.500 --> 24:13.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and almost optimistic in the case of population decline, 24:13.366 --> 24:16.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that sustainability science, 24:16.100 --> 24:18.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that is to predict or control the future, 24:18.433 --> 24:21.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% really means we think about some big fundamental drivers 24:21.666 --> 24:23.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that drive a lot of what happens in the world. 24:23.900 --> 24:26.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We can tell those farmers, "Don't do that, that's bad," 24:26.233 --> 24:27.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% or, "Go do that, that's good." 24:27.766 --> 24:30.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But a lot of their decisions are situated within a cycle 24:31.066 --> 24:34.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% of vast churning global drama. 24:34.933 --> 24:37.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And part of it is the decline of population, 24:37.400 --> 24:39.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which I think is one of the most interesting things I've, 24:39.700 --> 24:41.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and let me tell you somethin', 24:41.333 --> 24:44.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I did not see it coming until it came up in the surveys 24:44.800 --> 24:46.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and until we looked at labor prices. 24:46.533 --> 24:48.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And that's why you do science. 24:48.466 --> 24:50.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% 'Cause you don't know before you start. 24:50.766 --> 24:53.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And when you do, the light goes on. 24:54.000 --> 24:56.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you say the future of the planet, right, 24:56.400 --> 25:00.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% rests in the hands of what those poor people want. 25:00.666 --> 25:02.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Where they want to move. 25:02.900 --> 25:05.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What they want to achieve in their lives. 25:05.866 --> 25:08.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, if there's a lesson for sustainability, if I close, 25:08.800 --> 25:12.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the lesson for sustainability is the future of the planet 25:12.400 --> 25:16.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% sits in the hands of a large number of very poor people 25:16.866 --> 25:20.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who want to have a dignified life. 25:20.533 --> 25:23.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And the conditions under which they do or do not get it 25:23.166 --> 25:25.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% will determine how the economy functions. 25:25.266 --> 25:27.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Which will determine how people perform on the land, 25:27.866 --> 25:29.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what kinds of land uses, agriculture, mining, 25:30.033 --> 25:31.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% other kinds of practices. 25:31.400 --> 25:34.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And those things will determine the number of species, 25:34.833 --> 25:36.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% the rate of climate change. 25:36.433 --> 25:39.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% All the things that we think of as fundamental 25:39.100 --> 25:41.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to sustaining the future are in the hands 25:41.500 --> 25:44.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% of the aspiring global poor. 25:44.866 --> 25:48.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Which is either really good news or really bad news. 25:48.966 --> 25:53.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And I'm glad I'm just young enough to be, 25:53.300 --> 25:55.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think I'm gonna be alive when population growth ends. 25:55.733 --> 25:57.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And I wonder what it's gonna look like. 25:58.000 --> 26:01.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So those are my remarks, and I will take Q and A. 26:01.300 --> 26:02.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Paul, thank you. 26:02.833 --> 26:04.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (audience applause) 26:04.266 --> 26:06.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - Is that okay? 26:06.166 --> 26:08.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Was that all right for time? I tried to hustle it. 26:08.766 --> 26:10.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] We have a microphone. 26:10.300 --> 26:12.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So we will take the microphone to the person 26:12.300 --> 26:13.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% who is going to make a comment. 26:14.000 --> 26:16.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And let me start by asking a question. 26:16.666 --> 26:17.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] Please. 26:18.066 --> 26:19.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] So the fertility rates that you showed 26:19.933 --> 26:21.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% were localized. 26:22.033 --> 26:23.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - Well, they're by state. 26:23.833 --> 26:26.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So the stats that you're seeing there are by state. 26:26.300 --> 26:28.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So you can see the northern part of the country... 26:28.666 --> 26:32.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Is different. - [Paul] ...where I worked for a long time has much higher rates. 26:32.400 --> 26:33.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Bahar, for example, 26:33.833 --> 26:37.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is just about the poorest state in the country. 26:37.300 --> 26:39.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Right, so the rationale 26:39.200 --> 26:42.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for the people moving up north is what, why-- 26:42.566 --> 26:44.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Well, they're not moving. 26:44.133 --> 26:48.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So just to be clear, the fertility rate is natural growth. 26:48.333 --> 26:50.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So this is the number of kids people are having. 26:50.433 --> 26:52.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's regardless of migration. 26:52.833 --> 26:54.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, in other words, these numbers, 26:54.733 --> 26:56.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% when you go between 1.5 and two, 26:56.833 --> 26:58.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is the entire southern part of the country, 26:58.900 --> 27:03.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that is fertility choices made by women and their families. 27:03.566 --> 27:06.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% People are not having two kids. Now, why is that? 27:06.966 --> 27:08.600 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And there's a science for this too. 27:08.700 --> 27:12.100 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It's because the opportunity costs are higher 27:12.200 --> 27:13.800 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% to have kids, 27:13.900 --> 27:15.466 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% because you can be in the workforce. 27:15.566 --> 27:18.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% When women have the opportunity to work, 27:18.333 --> 27:19.566 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% they tend to have fewer kids. 27:19.666 --> 27:21.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% This is just how it is, it's a global fact. 27:21.933 --> 27:24.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% When women are educated, they tend to have fewer kids. 27:24.933 --> 27:26.133 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It's a statistical, 27:26.233 --> 27:28.766 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It's one of the cleanest, like, R-squareds 27:28.866 --> 27:31.366 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% that exists in national income accounting. 27:31.466 --> 27:33.933 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% Fertility rates go down with women's education 27:34.033 --> 27:35.933 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% even in poor countries. 27:36.033 --> 27:39.433 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% You educate women, you have the availability 27:39.533 --> 27:42.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% of rural healthcare so that there's lower infant mortality, 27:42.500 --> 27:44.933 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% so babies don't die, and you know what you get? 27:45.033 --> 27:46.466 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% Fewer kids. 27:46.566 --> 27:50.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So that what you're seeing in India here is that the south, 27:50.266 --> 27:53.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% generally speaking, has better rural healthcare. 27:53.233 --> 27:56.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It has higher rates of literacy 27:56.400 --> 27:59.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in the female population, more women in the workforce. 27:59.666 --> 28:02.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Hell, if you go out in Kerala in the morning, 28:02.333 --> 28:04.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% let's say that you want to see elephants, which is awesome, by the way, 28:04.933 --> 28:06.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you should go to Kerala to see elephants. 28:06.800 --> 28:10.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% You get up in the morning and you say to your hotel person, "I want to go see elephants." 28:10.666 --> 28:12.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Who is the hotel person? Who actually takes your order? 28:12.933 --> 28:14.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's a woman. 28:14.200 --> 28:16.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You go out, you get in a cab, probably a man, 28:16.866 --> 28:19.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% maybe a woman driver, but they get you out to the park, 28:19.566 --> 28:21.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Somebody takes your money, who is it? 28:21.933 --> 28:24.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a woman. You get in the boat. 28:24.600 --> 28:26.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They fire up the motor. This is in Kerala, right. 28:27.066 --> 28:29.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And who's drivin' the boat? 28:29.700 --> 28:31.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's a woman. 28:31.266 --> 28:33.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So you can go the whole day and see only women at work. 28:33.900 --> 28:36.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Whereas, up in Rajasthan, where I worked for 20 years prior, 28:36.766 --> 28:40.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you could go all day without seeing a woman, right. 28:40.433 --> 28:41.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It is a remarkable difference. 28:41.933 --> 28:44.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a natural experiment, right. 28:44.466 --> 28:46.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is sustainability science. 28:46.233 --> 28:48.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What's happening is a revolution. 28:48.266 --> 28:49.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% A fertility revolution around the world. 28:50.066 --> 28:52.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Indonesia, throughout all of Asia, 28:52.800 --> 28:54.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it already happened in Latin America, 28:55.033 --> 28:58.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% populations are declining in rates of growth. 28:59.266 --> 29:01.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These populations are actually declining 29:01.200 --> 29:02.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in overall population. 29:02.533 --> 29:05.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's before we talk about migration. 29:05.133 --> 29:07.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% One of our big mysteries, to answer your question 29:07.500 --> 29:09.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% with our biggest question, is why the heck 29:09.500 --> 29:11.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% aren't people from Bahar rushing down in here 29:11.900 --> 29:13.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to the coffee plantations to pick up the labor burden? 29:13.966 --> 29:16.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We haven't figured that out yet. 29:16.166 --> 29:18.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% People don't want to pick coffee? 29:19.033 --> 29:20.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Back-breaking work. 29:20.666 --> 29:22.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And hard to automate. 29:22.133 --> 29:23.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Next question, go ahead. 29:23.533 --> 29:24.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Audience] I have a question. 29:24.833 --> 29:27.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Can you give us an example, 29:27.366 --> 29:29.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% take us to a different part of the world here, 29:29.766 --> 29:32.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% during this biodiversity, 29:32.633 --> 29:34.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% but is not nearby 29:34.733 --> 29:37.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% very valuable agricultural product? 29:37.766 --> 29:39.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And because of those factors, 29:39.433 --> 29:40.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you don't have the same conditions 29:40.966 --> 29:43.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% where labor is so high priced. 29:43.733 --> 29:45.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] That's a great point. 29:45.133 --> 29:48.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Because this is a very (mumbles). 29:48.866 --> 29:51.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Well, what I say about the example, it's a great point. 29:51.900 --> 29:54.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So I concede half the point. 29:54.433 --> 29:55.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The point is this, right: 29:55.733 --> 29:57.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% this is a very specific kind of economy. 29:58.066 --> 30:00.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is agroforestry. 30:00.166 --> 30:02.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There is about a hundred or a thousand times 30:02.600 --> 30:06.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% as much land under agroforestry around the world 30:06.500 --> 30:08.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% than there is in national parks. 30:08.633 --> 30:10.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's my answer. 30:10.100 --> 30:12.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In other words, you want to save biodiversity, 30:12.600 --> 30:15.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% after parks, your next best shot? 30:15.566 --> 30:18.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Agroforestry and you find it in west Africa 30:18.533 --> 30:20.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you find it in southeast Africa 30:20.500 --> 30:22.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you find it throughout Latin America 30:22.433 --> 30:24.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you find it throughout Central America. 30:24.666 --> 30:26.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You find it throughout parts of the Amazon. 30:26.966 --> 30:31.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In other words, right, it's the frontier. 30:31.500 --> 30:33.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's a godsend, right. 30:33.933 --> 30:35.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Is it everywhere? 30:35.333 --> 30:38.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Is an Iowa cornfield as biodiverse as these places? 30:38.266 --> 30:39.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% No, of course not. 30:39.900 --> 30:42.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But how much of this is out there? 30:42.400 --> 30:44.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So much, so much. 30:44.600 --> 30:46.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And if you consider how much money 30:46.100 --> 30:50.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and time is put into protected areas just in India, 30:50.133 --> 30:51.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to say nothing of China, 30:52.033 --> 30:54.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% when it could actually be put in trying to maintain 30:54.533 --> 30:56.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and support biodiversity in working landscapes 30:56.966 --> 30:59.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that are actually generating an income, 30:59.466 --> 31:01.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% why, it seems like money poorly spent. 31:01.733 --> 31:04.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So my point here is not to say that these are, 31:04.600 --> 31:06.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it depends on how you look at it. 31:06.400 --> 31:09.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The glass is quite half full. There's a lot of agroforest. 31:09.333 --> 31:10.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Now, if we go beyond agroforest, 31:10.833 --> 31:12.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% because that's what this is about 31:12.133 --> 31:13.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and this is what we're publishing on, 31:13.566 --> 31:16.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% there's also biodiversity to be found in cities. 31:16.666 --> 31:18.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% There's biodiversity to be found 31:18.433 --> 31:21.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% even at the edges of Iowa cornfields. 31:21.200 --> 31:24.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In the corners in central pivot agriculture, 31:24.166 --> 31:26.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% a huge amount of work is going in now to maintaining 31:27.033 --> 31:29.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% or restoring pollinators, right. 31:29.433 --> 31:33.866 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The interstices of the Anthropocene, those little spaces 31:33.966 --> 31:37.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% between what is clearly, like, pounded by humans 31:37.466 --> 31:40.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and what is wild, which is hardly anything left, 31:40.533 --> 31:43.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% those spaces in between which are funky and lively 31:44.066 --> 31:47.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and diverse but obviously influenced by people, 31:47.233 --> 31:49.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% those are countless, that's the future. 31:49.766 --> 31:51.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's the Earth. 31:51.133 --> 31:52.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When there's 10,000,000,000 people on the Earth, 31:52.933 --> 31:55.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it is gonna be a lightly used planet. 31:55.533 --> 31:57.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Like it or not. 31:57.133 --> 31:58.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'd like to think we'd all go back 31:59.033 --> 32:01.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to 2,000,000,000 people, but we're not. 32:01.300 --> 32:03.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But we're going to stop growing around 10. 32:03.166 --> 32:05.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for all the reasons I just showed you. 32:05.100 --> 32:06.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (someone speaks off mic) 32:06.800 --> 32:10.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Yeah, well, it depends on who you cite. 32:10.533 --> 32:13.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And demographers, you know, are pretty good at what they do, 32:14.066 --> 32:17.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but prediction is really difficult, as they say famously, 32:17.133 --> 32:19.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% especially when it comes to the future. 32:19.600 --> 32:21.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, who is that who said that? Somebody smart. 32:21.766 --> 32:23.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I want to think it's Yogi Berra, 32:23.633 --> 32:25.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but I think it was actually a scientist. 32:25.933 --> 32:27.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Anyway. 32:27.233 --> 32:28.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Niels Bohr, actually, I think. 32:28.700 --> 32:30.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Go ahead. 32:31.233 --> 32:34.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Do land access issues impact the study? 32:34.533 --> 32:36.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Do they what? I'm sorry. 32:36.666 --> 32:39.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Do land access issues impact the study? 32:39.333 --> 32:42.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - So, land change in this area, and that's really important 32:42.233 --> 32:44.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in Latin America, you know, in this area, 32:45.000 --> 32:47.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% by the way, great question, and we were curious ourselves, 32:48.000 --> 32:49.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So what we've done is we've gone back 32:49.733 --> 32:52.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and taken a look at how much land has changed hands, 32:52.466 --> 32:53.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% whether there's consolidation, in other words, 32:53.866 --> 32:56.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% stuff like that, over the last 30 years, 32:56.566 --> 32:57.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and there's none. 32:57.866 --> 32:59.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If you got your hands on this land 32:59.633 --> 33:01.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% right when the British left, 33:01.300 --> 33:03.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% let's say you had one hectare, I mean a tiny area, 33:03.533 --> 33:06.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% two hectares, you didn't let it go. 33:06.100 --> 33:07.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You didn't let it go. 33:07.566 --> 33:09.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Somebody in the family is still managing that land. 33:09.333 --> 33:11.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So what I would say is that everybody who had access 33:11.600 --> 33:13.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to the land continues to have access to the land. 33:13.833 --> 33:16.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There hasn't been a lot of putting people off the land. 33:16.366 --> 33:18.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That is not true in West Africa. 33:18.366 --> 33:19.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's not true in Latin America. 33:19.833 --> 33:24.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That would become a much bigger deal in a different context. 33:24.133 --> 33:25.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But the remarkable thing about this place 33:25.666 --> 33:28.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is how stable it is in terms of land holdings. 33:28.333 --> 33:30.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And it has to do with their ability to make a living 33:30.966 --> 33:32.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and to diversify their livelihoods. 33:32.566 --> 33:34.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'll give you a good case example. 33:34.766 --> 33:37.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Almost everybody here keeps what's called a homestay, 33:38.000 --> 33:39.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which basically is a bed and breakfast. 33:39.833 --> 33:42.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You can be a little owner or you can be a big plantation owner, 33:42.566 --> 33:44.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but you're always gonna make a few more bucks 33:44.400 --> 33:46.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% if somebody comes out, sits in that hammock, 33:46.466 --> 33:48.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% has that glass of wine, photographs those birds. 33:48.600 --> 33:50.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's worth as much as rubber, right? 33:50.766 --> 33:52.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's worth as much as coffee. 33:52.533 --> 33:54.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Who were all the people sitting in those hammocks? 33:54.433 --> 33:56.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Let's just get into a little more sustainability. 33:56.466 --> 33:58.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It doesn't answer your question, but I'm riffin' here. 33:58.933 --> 34:02.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Who sits in those hammocks? Who are the tourists? 34:02.233 --> 34:05.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Yeah, I understand that one of 34:05.400 --> 34:10.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the biggest forces going on in the world is urbanization. 34:10.300 --> 34:13.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And I'm not quite getting how 34:13.866 --> 34:16.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that force toward cities 34:16.166 --> 34:19.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is going to deal with sustainability. 34:19.133 --> 34:20.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - Great question. 34:20.400 --> 34:22.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, in this context, and I'll be quite specific about, 34:22.400 --> 34:23.966 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% I'm wanna say something very specific 34:24.066 --> 34:25.533 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and I'm wanna say something very general, 34:25.633 --> 34:27.066 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% because it's the most important question. 34:27.166 --> 34:30.900 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% In this case, urbanization rate in Karnataka is about 35%. 34:31.000 --> 34:32.600 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So, in other words, 35% of the population 34:32.700 --> 34:34.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% lives in something defined as a city, 34:34.500 --> 34:37.300 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% which means a lot of people still live out on the landscape. 34:37.400 --> 34:39.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And, in fact, if we get to about 10,000,000,000 people, 34:39.933 --> 34:41.866 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% you can do this on the back of an envelope, 34:41.966 --> 34:43.100 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and you've got about, 34:43.200 --> 34:46.733 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% let's say we do 80% urbanization globally, 34:46.833 --> 34:49.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% which would be optimistic, I mean, if you like cities. 34:49.933 --> 34:52.600 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% That's a high rate, but let's say you get to 80%. 34:52.700 --> 34:55.133 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% The same number of people living in rural areas 34:55.233 --> 34:57.200 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% now will be living in rural areas then, 34:57.300 --> 34:59.533 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% because it's 20% of a much larger number. 34:59.633 --> 35:02.366 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So, that's the first answer to the question is that 35:02.466 --> 35:06.133 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% what happens in the countryside really still matters, right. 35:06.233 --> 35:08.733 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% There is a more general point, and that's this: 35:08.833 --> 35:11.000 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% much of the income that's coming in onto these landscapes 35:11.100 --> 35:13.566 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% that allows them to be sustainable, when they can be sustainable, 35:13.666 --> 35:15.333 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% is coming, as I mentioned, from tourists. 35:15.433 --> 35:18.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Who are those tourists, to answer my own question? 35:18.166 --> 35:20.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They are middle class Indians 35:20.600 --> 35:22.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% working in the software industry. 35:22.833 --> 35:25.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Urbanization has provided an economic engine 35:25.500 --> 35:28.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which has flown money back to the countryside, 35:28.266 --> 35:29.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which has allowed certain kinds of choices 35:29.833 --> 35:31.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% which can be sustainable. 35:31.300 --> 35:34.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And, if I can make a more abstract global argument, 35:34.233 --> 35:38.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think it's pretty clear that an 80% urbanization rate 35:38.666 --> 35:41.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is good for global sustainability. 35:41.100 --> 35:43.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Cities are more efficient users of energy. 35:43.833 --> 35:45.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Not suburban areas. 35:45.733 --> 35:47.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Cities, real cities. 35:47.266 --> 35:51.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Bangalore, New York, Chengdu. 35:51.833 --> 35:54.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They are more efficient users of energy. 35:54.366 --> 35:58.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They are cosmopolitan and filled with innovation. 35:58.533 --> 36:01.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They allow transportation that is not, 36:01.666 --> 36:03.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% let's say, driving around in a car. 36:03.633 --> 36:07.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Urbanization is the best sustainability news we've got. 36:07.866 --> 36:10.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% By putting 10,000,000,000 people in the countryside, 36:11.066 --> 36:13.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% would be very worrisome. 36:13.200 --> 36:15.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But if you had 8,000,000,000 of them in a city, 36:16.066 --> 36:18.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you had production going on and some kind of balance 36:18.733 --> 36:21.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and some protected areas and some coffee plantations, 36:21.366 --> 36:23.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the future doesn't have to be awful. 36:23.500 --> 36:26.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It doesn't have to be Soylent Green, right. (chuckles) 36:26.900 --> 36:29.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, urbanization can be good. 36:29.766 --> 36:31.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Bangalore is a really interesting case. 36:31.700 --> 36:34.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's been a very effectively urbanized, 36:34.233 --> 36:36.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% well, it's not a very well run city. 36:36.200 --> 36:37.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm going to be on TV, right? 36:38.033 --> 36:39.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Bangalore is a very well run city. 36:39.966 --> 36:41.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (audience laughter) 36:41.266 --> 36:44.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I have to be invited back. It's not a very well run city. 36:44.633 --> 36:47.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's not especially sustainable, but it certainly could be. 36:47.200 --> 36:49.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So urbanization is our biggest opportunity. 36:49.600 --> 36:50.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think liveable cities is probably 36:51.033 --> 36:53.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the most important part of sustainability. 36:53.933 --> 36:55.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Having said that, 36:55.333 --> 36:57.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% these species are not going to live in cities. 36:57.366 --> 37:00.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Those frogs, those birds, they need something like nature. 37:00.100 --> 37:01.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And if the nature happens to be coffee 37:01.900 --> 37:03.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that is consumed by urban people 37:04.066 --> 37:06.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who pump the money back into the rural economy 37:07.000 --> 37:09.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in something that looks like a tradeoff, 37:09.333 --> 37:13.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% you can sustain rural biodiversity and urban biodiversity. 37:13.333 --> 37:14.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Foxes and-- 37:14.866 --> 37:18.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's foxes runnin' through my yard, crazy. 37:18.300 --> 37:20.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So my answer is: urbanization has been a boogieman 37:21.066 --> 37:23.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for the environmental movement since 1965, 37:23.533 --> 37:25.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and it's a mistake. 37:25.133 --> 37:28.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Cities are part of the sustainability ticket to the future. 37:28.533 --> 37:30.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Both because of their efficiency 37:30.166 --> 37:32.700 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% and because of their relationship to the countryside, right. 37:32.800 --> 37:35.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Because they flow resources back to working people 37:35.500 --> 37:37.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that allow them to maintain landscapes 37:37.166 --> 37:40.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that are not totally destroyed, right. 37:40.333 --> 37:42.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You need a diverse economy. 37:42.133 --> 37:43.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Does that-- - [Audience] Yes, thank you. 37:43.866 --> 37:46.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Yeah, it's a great, it's an important question. 37:46.100 --> 37:47.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm not an urbanist, 37:47.433 --> 37:49.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% so that's why you're not seeing enough cities. 37:49.633 --> 37:51.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We'll bring one in. 37:51.500 --> 37:53.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I have colleagues. 37:53.966 --> 37:56.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Way smarter than me. Anything else? 37:56.300 --> 37:58.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Yeah, I have another question. 37:58.633 --> 37:59.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We have time. 37:59.966 --> 38:02.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] That's why I try to talk fast. 38:02.366 --> 38:04.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] We have lots of time. 38:04.333 --> 38:06.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm beginning to see your point about the effect 38:06.566 --> 38:09.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% locally in the southern part of India. 38:09.300 --> 38:10.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm beginning to see that point. 38:10.900 --> 38:13.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Indonesia, Bangladesh is falling now. 38:13.900 --> 38:15.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Yeah? - [Paul] Oh, yeah. 38:15.733 --> 38:18.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] What I'm trying to think about is... 38:20.000 --> 38:21.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What do those of us who are 38:21.966 --> 38:24.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% enjoying this expensive coffee. 38:25.800 --> 38:27.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] Citizenship. 38:27.166 --> 38:28.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Yeah. - [Paul] That's your question. 38:29.066 --> 38:30.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] What do, 38:30.600 --> 38:33.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% other than continuing to buy this expensive coffee, 38:33.933 --> 38:37.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% hopefully some of the money will go back there, 38:37.266 --> 38:38.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% what, is that it? 38:38.633 --> 38:40.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Well, I think there's several things, right? 38:41.000 --> 38:42.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So I think that's true. 38:42.733 --> 38:46.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So one of the things that might work in this case, right, 38:46.733 --> 38:48.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% has to do with 38:48.966 --> 38:51.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% getting rents on the coffee, so to speak, 38:51.700 --> 38:55.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% land rents that can pay for the environmental externalities. 38:56.066 --> 38:58.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Which means getting more money for your coffee, basically. 38:58.233 --> 39:00.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And then agreeing to grow it in a way 39:00.533 --> 39:01.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that produces frogs, right? 39:02.033 --> 39:04.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's like shade-grown coffee, fair trade coffee, 39:04.700 --> 39:07.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% all those markets that wealthy Americans pay for 39:07.700 --> 39:09.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% even though they are not quite sure 39:09.400 --> 39:11.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what they're getting for their money. 39:11.333 --> 39:12.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I mean, come on. 39:12.500 --> 39:14.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Do you really know what you're getting 39:14.100 --> 39:15.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% when you're getting fair trade coffee? 39:15.566 --> 39:16.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% No, you don't. 39:17.000 --> 39:18.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But that's one part of it, is responsible consumption. 39:18.833 --> 39:20.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I don't favor that. 39:20.166 --> 39:21.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think what we're really talking about here 39:21.966 --> 39:24.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is about making and establishing policy. 39:24.600 --> 39:27.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Powerful people, wealthy people, should establish policy 39:27.200 --> 39:28.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that produce the effects that are desired, 39:28.800 --> 39:32.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which means rural healthcare, you know. 39:32.133 --> 39:34.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% People in Uttar Pradesh are not making the kinds of demands 39:34.366 --> 39:36.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% on rural healthcare that they could, right? 39:36.633 --> 39:39.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Rural healthcare drives down the fertility rate. 39:39.100 --> 39:40.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Rural healthcare keeps people on the land 39:40.866 --> 39:42.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in a way that is more sustainable. 39:42.666 --> 39:44.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It lowers costs, household costs that can be 39:45.066 --> 39:47.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% put back into a farm operation that's sustainable. 39:47.800 --> 39:51.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There are policy measures that are pretty common sensical. 39:51.966 --> 39:53.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Better healthcare, better education. 39:54.066 --> 39:56.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In other words, if you're an environmentalist, 39:56.300 --> 39:59.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% let's put it this way, you should spend less time 39:59.500 --> 40:01.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% trying to save tigers in those tiny parks, 40:01.666 --> 40:03.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% there, I've said it, 40:03.166 --> 40:05.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and more time building health clinics. 40:05.100 --> 40:06.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's what I would say. 40:06.533 --> 40:09.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's about a certain low number of dollars that we have 40:09.866 --> 40:12.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% as people who were concerned about the sustainable future 40:12.100 --> 40:15.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of the Earth and where we put those few chips, 40:15.500 --> 40:17.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and I think they should be put on the rural poor. 40:18.000 --> 40:21.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think that's where your best bet is, you know? 40:21.266 --> 40:24.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And the problem is, and now I'll be bold, historically, 40:24.600 --> 40:27.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and people who do describe themselves as environmentalists, 40:27.133 --> 40:29.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% are terrified of the rural poor. 40:30.033 --> 40:32.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're gonna want TVs like me. 40:32.333 --> 40:33.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're gonna want air conditioning. 40:34.033 --> 40:35.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're gonna want all these things, 40:35.400 --> 40:37.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and they're going to destroy the Earth. 40:37.300 --> 40:39.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's white people scared of the brown masses. 40:39.866 --> 40:42.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And I am saying that you invest in those people. 40:42.833 --> 40:45.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You give them electricity, you work with them 40:45.766 --> 40:48.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to provide the kind of energy that's not coal, 40:49.066 --> 40:50.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you will get a sustainable future. 40:51.066 --> 40:52.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Because these folks are not going away, 40:52.933 --> 40:55.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and they have the right to make those demands. 40:55.333 --> 40:58.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And that's not anathema to a sustainable future 40:58.133 --> 41:00.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to work with the rural poor. 41:00.500 --> 41:04.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And Malthus, if it was ever true, it's coming to an end. 41:04.766 --> 41:07.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm an anti-Malthusian on this, we differ a little bit. 41:07.633 --> 41:09.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But I will say that even if you're a Malthusian, 41:09.766 --> 41:11.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% look at these numbers. 41:11.366 --> 41:14.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The world is changing even now. 41:14.133 --> 41:15.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's good news. 41:15.800 --> 41:18.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] I like good news; I'm not a gloom and doom person. 41:18.566 --> 41:19.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (Paul and audience laugh) 41:19.933 --> 41:23.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But I want to learn 41:23.566 --> 41:28.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what responsible action should be taken, 41:28.466 --> 41:30.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% not only individually, but collectively. 41:30.466 --> 41:32.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - We should be thinking about development. 41:32.100 --> 41:33.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And we should be thinking about urbanization. 41:33.833 --> 41:35.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The question that came from up here on urbanization 41:35.600 --> 41:37.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% was really crucial. 41:37.233 --> 41:38.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Audience] Okay. 41:38.700 --> 41:41.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It looks like on your map there about half of India, 41:41.200 --> 41:44.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% half of it, the area is... 41:46.133 --> 41:52.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Through world population increase, what 41:52.366 --> 41:56.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% fraction of the population of India is in-- 41:56.333 --> 41:57.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Is within that? - [Audience] Yes. 41:58.033 --> 41:59.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - Right. 41:59.133 --> 42:00.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So the highest density populations 42:00.966 --> 42:03.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and the most people fall in the Gangetic Plain 42:03.766 --> 42:05.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% where some of the highest growth is. 42:05.233 --> 42:07.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So there's no question that this is growth 42:07.166 --> 42:09.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% on a higher number than this is lack of growth 42:10.033 --> 42:11.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% on a lower number. 42:11.766 --> 42:14.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, in other words, this is a declining number over time, 42:14.766 --> 42:16.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% but it's a smaller number. 42:16.300 --> 42:17.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a direct answer to your question. 42:17.700 --> 42:19.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a smaller number than what we see up here. 42:20.033 --> 42:21.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But this is gonna tip too. 42:21.700 --> 42:23.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Like, this is coming. 42:23.300 --> 42:27.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These states weren't negative growth states 20 years ago. 42:27.600 --> 42:30.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Kerala maybe, none of the rest. It's all new. 42:30.833 --> 42:32.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So it's just a question of how quickly 42:32.500 --> 42:34.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% these things transition, which is why we can't pick 42:34.533 --> 42:36.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% whether it's 9,000,000,000 or 10,000,000,000, right. 42:36.900 --> 42:39.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's why it's hard to come up with that number. 42:39.333 --> 42:41.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Because we don't know how fast states in the north 42:41.600 --> 42:43.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are gonna behave like states in the south. 42:43.400 --> 42:45.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And that's true in Indonesia. It's true in Malaysia. 42:45.866 --> 42:49.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Hell, in Singapore, the government has a whole campaign 42:49.433 --> 42:53.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% co-sponsored by a candy company to get people 42:53.300 --> 42:56.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% on their Independence National Night 42:57.066 --> 42:59.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to go get with it. 42:59.666 --> 43:01.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You see what I'm saying? 43:01.600 --> 43:03.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They have advertisements on television. 43:03.533 --> 43:07.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They are worried that their population is getting too small. 43:09.033 --> 43:10.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Isn't that crazy? 43:11.933 --> 43:13.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The world's crazy. 43:13.666 --> 43:15.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Stuff is happening around us 43:15.466 --> 43:18.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that 1973 just is not ready for. 43:19.066 --> 43:20.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] I have another question. 43:20.800 --> 43:22.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] Please. 43:23.633 --> 43:28.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Could you tell us about some more details 43:28.566 --> 43:32.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% about farmers who came to the realization 43:32.333 --> 43:36.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that biodiversity was very good for their crops, 43:36.366 --> 43:39.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and how that information is shared 43:39.100 --> 43:42.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% from one part of an agriculture area of the world 43:43.000 --> 43:44.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to another part...? 43:45.000 --> 43:46.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - Great question. 43:46.433 --> 43:48.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So I'm gonna answer the second question first. 43:48.966 --> 43:50.366 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% I'll give you a grounded example. 43:50.466 --> 43:52.266 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% There's something called the honeybee network, 43:52.366 --> 43:55.300 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and the honeybee network is south-south technology transfer. 43:55.400 --> 43:58.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So they don't bother talking to Americans or Europeans. 43:58.500 --> 43:59.800 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% They just talk to each other. 43:59.900 --> 44:02.533 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So, East Africans are touring farms in Gujarat, 44:02.633 --> 44:07.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and Gujaratis are visiting coffee farms in Central America. 44:07.333 --> 44:09.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So there are networks globally, 44:09.500 --> 44:10.900 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and information technology has, 44:11.000 --> 44:12.733 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% I think, aided this enormously, 44:12.833 --> 44:14.633 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% which is about sharing best practices, 44:14.733 --> 44:16.566 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% coming up with clever solutions, 44:16.666 --> 44:18.833 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% learning about how to create cooperatives, for example, 44:18.933 --> 44:20.466 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and other kinds of institutional solutions. 44:20.566 --> 44:24.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, there's a lot of south-south knowledge transfer. 44:24.233 --> 44:26.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But to answer the first question, 44:26.133 --> 44:27.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% none of these people think that biodiversity 44:28.000 --> 44:30.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is good for them, except maybe because of tourism. 44:31.000 --> 44:32.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% For the most part, what they are doing 44:33.033 --> 44:36.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is simply responding to labor and crop markets. 44:36.100 --> 44:37.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And when labor and the crop markets are right 44:38.066 --> 44:39.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% based on their land size, 44:39.533 --> 44:44.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% they accidentally make biodiversity friendly decisions. 44:44.366 --> 44:45.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So, if we're interested, 44:46.033 --> 44:47.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% this is another lesson about sustainability. 44:47.666 --> 44:50.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Waiting for everybody to agree with you to save the Earth 44:50.566 --> 44:52.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is a huge waste of time. (audience laughter) 44:52.333 --> 44:53.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It makes much more sense to say 44:53.933 --> 44:56.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% if this person is making decisions that produce 44:56.733 --> 44:59.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% a diversity of trees which produce the biodiversity we want, 44:59.733 --> 45:02.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% then we should either subsidize them to do it 45:02.166 --> 45:06.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% or figure out how to kind of mess with the economy 45:06.166 --> 45:08.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in a way that kind of encourages that. 45:08.400 --> 45:09.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It takes some tinkering. 45:09.733 --> 45:11.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You get your hands on the levers. 45:11.233 --> 45:13.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% One of the tests we're running now is, 45:13.266 --> 45:16.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are farmers who are in cooperatives more likely 45:16.400 --> 45:18.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to have tree diversity for whatever economic reasons, 45:19.066 --> 45:20.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and therefore bird diversity? 45:20.666 --> 45:23.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And if that's true, then what you would want to do 45:23.466 --> 45:25.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% as an environmental citizen is encourage, 45:25.900 --> 45:27.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% subsidize or work with cooperatives. 45:27.900 --> 45:29.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But we don't know, that's still an empirical question. 45:30.066 --> 45:32.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That test is still being run. So there's two answers. 45:32.566 --> 45:36.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% One is south-south learning is vibrant right now. 45:36.366 --> 45:37.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And I would say, 45:37.766 --> 45:39.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% coming back to the urban question on sustainability, 45:39.733 --> 45:42.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the greatest network of learners right now are mayors. 45:42.400 --> 45:44.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Which has nothing to do with my coffee case. 45:44.266 --> 45:46.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Mayors are talking to each other. 45:46.266 --> 45:49.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The mayor of Seattle is talking to mayors in China 45:49.700 --> 45:52.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% about what the heck, 'cause it's a practical problem. 45:52.933 --> 45:54.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How do you deal with sea level rise? 45:54.900 --> 45:57.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How do you maintain a shipping grid? 45:57.900 --> 46:00.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, with an electricity, a limit to your electricity. 46:00.233 --> 46:02.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So there's a lot of learning going on, 46:02.500 --> 46:06.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it's just not at the sort of national, federal, 46:06.833 --> 46:09.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you know, the failure of climate negotiations 46:09.100 --> 46:12.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% at the national scale has been matched by the success 46:12.733 --> 46:16.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of climate activities by mayors, county government. 46:16.433 --> 46:19.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, the decentralization of this decision-making 46:19.100 --> 46:21.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is quite remarkable and quite effective. 46:21.100 --> 46:23.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% - [Audience] Are you the only person in the room that knows this? (audience laughter) 46:24.000 --> 46:25.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We never heard this. 46:25.333 --> 46:27.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] I will connect you to 46:27.600 --> 46:29.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the Mayors Climate Protection Agreement 46:29.866 --> 46:33.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in which a majority of Americans live in cities signed, 46:33.466 --> 46:35.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% where mayors signed the Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. 46:35.833 --> 46:37.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Now, some of these people, it's just green washing. 46:37.633 --> 46:39.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's like, oh, yeah, I'm green. 46:39.200 --> 46:41.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you know, the city just goes on doing stupid stuff. 46:41.566 --> 46:44.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But a lot of these cities are making really good decisions 46:44.500 --> 46:48.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% because if they don't, they're screwed. 46:48.866 --> 46:51.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, when somebody like Mayor Bloomberg comes out 46:51.500 --> 46:54.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and says, "I think sea level rise is going to be a problem 46:54.133 --> 46:56.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and we might want to think about restoring wetlands," 46:56.666 --> 46:58.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (makes wacky vocalization) 46:58.700 --> 47:00.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that's quite a revelation, right? 47:00.966 --> 47:04.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Coming out of that storm sequence. 47:04.700 --> 47:07.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% My point here is that people, 47:07.466 --> 47:08.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% this is happening. 47:08.900 --> 47:10.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's not happening enough, it needs to happen more. 47:10.900 --> 47:11.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Environmental citizenship is about 47:12.066 --> 47:13.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% directing those kinds of changes. 47:14.066 --> 47:17.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But I think it comes out of, now I'm just gonna be on TV, 47:17.600 --> 47:19.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% get myself into more trouble. 47:19.600 --> 47:22.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think it has to do with a history of environmentalism 47:22.733 --> 47:24.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in the environmental community. 47:24.500 --> 47:26.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I describe myself as an environmentalist. 47:26.433 --> 47:28.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's not what I do for a living. I am a scientist. 47:28.900 --> 47:31.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But I worry about the Earth, and I think that my brothers 47:31.633 --> 47:33.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and sisters in this movement have depended upon 47:33.666 --> 47:36.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% waiting for the national government to do something 47:36.300 --> 47:39.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that's gonna be a centralized solution all the time. 47:39.266 --> 47:41.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And I think that is necessary, 47:41.733 --> 47:44.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% but insufficient to the project. 47:45.166 --> 47:47.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Oh, now I'm getting myself into trouble. 47:48.000 --> 47:50.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I like mayors, my bet's on mayors. 47:50.766 --> 47:53.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There should be a global parliament of mayors. 47:53.500 --> 47:55.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And they should just get together and say, 47:55.533 --> 47:58.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% "Here are a bunch of things I'm doing in a city that work. 47:58.133 --> 47:59.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What are you doing?" 47:59.633 --> 48:04.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And they could all agree to do it, it'd be revolutionary. 48:04.133 --> 48:06.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Let me see if I can get you 48:06.566 --> 48:08.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in some more trouble. 48:08.633 --> 48:09.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (audience laughter) 48:10.033 --> 48:13.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And I'm cautious in asking this question. 48:13.700 --> 48:16.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] I'll be cautious in answering. 48:16.200 --> 48:18.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Be bold. 48:18.133 --> 48:19.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's up to you. 48:19.600 --> 48:24.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, are there other crops around the world 48:24.233 --> 48:28.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that can now, what's the right word, 48:28.266 --> 48:29.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% benefit from this approach? 48:29.833 --> 48:33.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And what about crops around the world 48:33.433 --> 48:36.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that are economically lucrative, 48:36.966 --> 48:40.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% but not good for our health? 48:40.333 --> 48:42.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - Not good for our health. 48:42.433 --> 48:44.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So, there's a big question, 48:44.200 --> 48:45.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and it's bigger than my knowledge. 48:45.733 --> 48:49.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So I have to admit you've hit the edge of my ignorance. 48:50.533 --> 48:52.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Which is vast. (audience laughter) 48:52.766 --> 48:54.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But I would say that 48:54.666 --> 48:58.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% central Wisconsin potatoes 48:58.433 --> 49:01.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% are a very interesting crop. 49:01.166 --> 49:03.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So, what makes them interesting? 49:03.233 --> 49:05.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Well, we could talk about how awful they are. 49:05.233 --> 49:07.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% For a moment, let's talk about how awful they are. 49:07.400 --> 49:09.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Knowing potato growers around the state who are really, 49:09.666 --> 49:12.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% really thoughtful, smart people and I like them a lot 49:12.733 --> 49:15.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and they are feeding the world and all the rest of that. 49:15.966 --> 49:18.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% High capacity bore wells, right? 49:18.100 --> 49:20.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, drawing on the water resources very, very heavily. 49:20.966 --> 49:22.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Big problem with potatoes. 49:22.433 --> 49:24.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It is a high input crop, you know, 49:24.500 --> 49:27.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in terms of nutrients, pesticides. 49:27.200 --> 49:29.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, it's a dirty crop. It can be a dirty crop. 49:29.733 --> 49:31.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But one of the things that they've gotten better at 49:31.900 --> 49:33.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in central Wisconsin is doing the kinds of things 49:33.933 --> 49:35.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that I was just talking about. 49:35.366 --> 49:37.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Using those corners where central pivot doesn't touch 49:37.866 --> 49:39.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to produce all kinds of biodiversity. 49:39.900 --> 49:41.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're doing all these things. 49:41.300 --> 49:43.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The problem is they can't get a premium for it. 49:43.700 --> 49:45.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Why is that? 49:45.233 --> 49:46.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Even though they're producing biodiversity. 49:46.633 --> 49:48.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Let's say these farmers who are producing potatoes, 49:48.866 --> 49:51.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% just like our coffee growers, 49:51.566 --> 49:54.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and they're producing biodiversity at the field edges 49:54.700 --> 49:57.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% along with some forest remnants, restoring some of their prairie, 49:57.700 --> 49:59.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% why can't they get a revenue for that? 49:59.800 --> 50:01.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And the answer is because it's not organic. 50:01.800 --> 50:05.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So once again environmentalism defeats itself, right? 50:05.466 --> 50:07.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I understand what organic is, right. 50:07.300 --> 50:09.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Organic is no inputs for seven years. 50:09.866 --> 50:12.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These potato growers are not gonna hit that mark, 50:12.100 --> 50:13.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but they might be producing more biodiversity 50:13.700 --> 50:15.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% than an organic farm. 50:15.266 --> 50:17.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How can we pay them for those ecosystem services? 50:17.933 --> 50:19.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% How can we get them to do it? 50:19.966 --> 50:22.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And so they tried working with the University of Wisconsin 50:22.100 --> 50:23.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% for a brand in this area. 50:24.033 --> 50:26.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I believe it's Nature Grown. Something like that. 50:26.466 --> 50:27.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Anybody familiar with this? 50:27.833 --> 50:29.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The problem is that people don't understand it. 50:29.900 --> 50:31.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's not organic, it's too complicated. 50:31.433 --> 50:34.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's got biodiversity, but it's kind of industrial. 50:34.533 --> 50:36.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's very hard to market stuff like this, right? 50:36.900 --> 50:39.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Innovation that isn't nice and clean, you know, 50:39.666 --> 50:42.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that makes easy sense to people, is very hard to sell. 50:42.666 --> 50:44.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So my point is everything I said about coffee 50:45.033 --> 50:46.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% is true about every crop. 50:46.933 --> 50:50.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You could have more biodiverse all kinds of stuff. 50:51.033 --> 50:53.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You could always have more. 50:53.100 --> 50:54.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Are there crops we should do away with? 50:54.866 --> 50:56.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Are there bad incentives? 50:56.600 --> 50:58.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Yeah. Right? 50:58.666 --> 51:00.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The ethanol incentive. 51:01.133 --> 51:04.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The ethanol incentive, he says to the camera, 51:04.100 --> 51:07.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% has actually resulted, in the last few years, 51:07.333 --> 51:10.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in the elimination of a lot of prairie and wetlands 51:10.366 --> 51:13.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that were put in through the conservation, 51:13.533 --> 51:15.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% through federal conservation investments 51:15.933 --> 51:17.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% throughout the 1990s and 2000s. 51:17.800 --> 51:21.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% All that stuff that was moving forward fell backwards, 51:21.833 --> 51:23.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% because we're working across purposes. 51:23.566 --> 51:25.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% On the one hand, the federal government's paying people 51:25.700 --> 51:29.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to take corn out and bring, you know, wild nature back 51:29.100 --> 51:30.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in places that aren't very productive. 51:30.500 --> 51:32.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% On the other hand, they're subsidizing corn, 51:32.433 --> 51:36.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which takes land into production that was out in wetlands 51:36.100 --> 51:38.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and had the tile stopped up and all of that. 51:38.733 --> 51:41.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, you got the government working across purposes. 51:41.800 --> 51:44.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So my point about that is 51:44.133 --> 51:46.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% all crops could be more sustainable. 51:46.433 --> 51:47.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They have to be. 51:47.733 --> 51:50.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There will be 10,000,000,000 people. 51:50.433 --> 51:53.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We will have to eat. We will have to have energy. 51:53.400 --> 51:55.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's gonna have to happen. 51:55.500 --> 51:57.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But I'm sure there's a better way to do it. 51:57.700 --> 51:59.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And that's what sustainability science is. 51:59.333 --> 52:01.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's is a rigorous look at where you can 52:01.366 --> 52:03.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% squeeze those margins, make those trade-offs 52:03.966 --> 52:05.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in ways that are sensible. 52:05.433 --> 52:07.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But it's not gonna happen without government action, 52:07.133 --> 52:08.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% even federal government action. 52:08.733 --> 52:10.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's not gonna happen without local action. 52:10.233 --> 52:12.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's not gonna happen without people demanding 52:12.833 --> 52:14.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that those things happen. 52:14.166 --> 52:15.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But what you can't demand 52:15.633 --> 52:18.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is that we're all gonna go back into a cave. 52:18.300 --> 52:19.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, it's just not gonna happen. 52:20.033 --> 52:23.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you're welcome to, but I think it's somewhat offensive 52:23.833 --> 52:25.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to ask somebody in India to do that. 52:26.033 --> 52:29.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So that's the one thing that's off the table. 52:29.466 --> 52:31.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You can't ask for that. 52:31.133 --> 52:34.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What's left then is the fountain of human ingenuity 52:35.066 --> 52:38.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and creativity and new social networks 52:38.666 --> 52:42.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and good regulation and stuff like that. 52:43.633 --> 52:47.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Now just get over the whole, like, hobbit thing. 52:47.100 --> 52:49.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Right? That's all. 52:50.233 --> 52:52.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I know, hobbits are awesome. 52:53.600 --> 52:55.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Go ahead. 52:57.700 --> 53:00.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] You said earlier that the population 53:00.100 --> 53:03.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% was probably going to top off at 10,000,000, 53:03.533 --> 53:06.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% but is the USA being, like, 53:06.333 --> 53:09.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% iconically sustainable? 53:09.633 --> 53:12.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% In, like, the population growth? 53:12.533 --> 53:16.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Is it contributing much to the total? 53:16.866 --> 53:19.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - So much to say about that, 53:19.900 --> 53:21.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% all of it a little contradictory. 53:21.300 --> 53:23.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So let me give you the glass half full 53:23.433 --> 53:24.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and the glass half empty. 53:24.966 --> 53:26.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The bad news is this. 53:26.666 --> 53:29.566 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% Population growth in the United States is higher, 53:29.666 --> 53:31.000 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% fertility rates are higher in this county 53:31.100 --> 53:32.700 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% than they are in southern India. 53:32.800 --> 53:34.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And we use a whole lot more stuff 53:34.500 --> 53:35.966 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% than people in southern India. 53:36.066 --> 53:38.900 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% We have an energy intensive lifestyle, right, 53:39.000 --> 53:41.366 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% that is driving climate change and doing all that stuff 53:41.466 --> 53:42.900 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% that we all agree is bad. 53:43.000 --> 53:45.966 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So, before I told anybody in India to do this or that, 53:46.066 --> 53:48.300 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% I would probably start with a lot of questions 53:48.400 --> 53:50.700 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% about consumption and lifestyle and whatever else. 53:50.800 --> 53:53.400 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So that's the glass half-empty. And the answer is yes. 53:53.500 --> 53:56.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The United States is contributing to global climate change 53:56.100 --> 53:58.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% through the destruction of ecosystems. 53:58.500 --> 54:03.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Yeah, sure, all wealthy countries do so far, right? 54:03.300 --> 54:05.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Now the glass half full. 54:05.133 --> 54:08.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Energy and material intensity of the US economy 54:08.500 --> 54:10.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is declining at an incredible rate. 54:10.866 --> 54:13.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In other words, many of us in this room are old enough 54:13.766 --> 54:16.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to remember my 1972 Dodge Dart Swinger Special. 54:17.033 --> 54:19.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's a car. (audience laughter) 54:19.533 --> 54:21.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It weighed a ton, right. 54:21.566 --> 54:24.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And on average a car produces about as much carbon dioxide 54:24.600 --> 54:27.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% or about as much greenhouse gases as its weight annually. 54:27.766 --> 54:29.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Just for the record. 54:29.233 --> 54:31.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's just a back of the envelope kind of calculation. 54:31.666 --> 54:34.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Those cars are getting a lot lighter. 54:34.533 --> 54:38.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, the amount of stuff that it takes to be an American 54:38.433 --> 54:40.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% is less now than ever before. 54:40.400 --> 54:42.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Water use per capita is down. 54:42.966 --> 54:45.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% One of the big jumps it made in the 1990s, 54:45.400 --> 54:46.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it went like (imitates whooshing), like that. 54:47.066 --> 54:50.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Where did that come from? Smaller toilet tanks. 54:51.366 --> 54:53.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I mean, it's not rocket surgery. 54:53.866 --> 54:57.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So we've made a lot of progress 54:57.266 --> 55:01.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in dematerializing the American lifestyle 55:01.300 --> 55:03.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% and the American economy through innovation, through technology. 55:03.733 --> 55:05.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That doesn't mean we don't have a problem. 55:05.700 --> 55:06.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We do. 55:07.033 --> 55:09.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But it's an interesting trend, and we've got to bank on it. 55:09.466 --> 55:11.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It takes something like four times less energy 55:11.566 --> 55:14.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to live to be 72, globally, than it used to. 55:14.666 --> 55:18.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's kind of an odd statistic, but I got it from a recent paper 55:18.466 --> 55:19.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and I think it's an interesting one. 55:20.000 --> 55:21.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That people are living longer and they're using less energy 55:21.966 --> 55:24.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% over the course of their lifetimes to get there. 55:24.266 --> 55:27.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's not a bad thing. I would like to make 72. 55:27.200 --> 55:28.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm probably not gonna make it much longer. 55:28.966 --> 55:31.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% My grandfather was 101. 55:31.566 --> 55:35.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Yeah, but on the other side of the family, bad genes. 55:35.133 --> 55:36.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Anyway, I'm off-topic. 55:36.466 --> 55:38.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% My point is people are living longer 55:38.700 --> 55:40.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and they're using less stuff to get there, right. 55:40.966 --> 55:42.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We can dematerialize the economy. 55:42.966 --> 55:47.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That is a good news trend in intensive countries 55:47.500 --> 55:49.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% like northern Europe and the United States. 55:49.733 --> 55:52.700 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% That's where that dematerialization is the strongest signal. 55:52.800 --> 55:54.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's happening more there than elsewhere. 55:55.033 --> 55:56.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And if you'd like to write me, 55:56.633 --> 55:58.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I can actually provide some very good papers 55:58.566 --> 56:00.700 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% and statistics on dematerialization, which is fascinating. 56:00.800 --> 56:03.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, if you're really optimistic, 56:03.100 --> 56:05.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% like suddenly we just won't need anything, 56:05.266 --> 56:07.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we'll just live on, like, we'll be like, 56:07.833 --> 56:09.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% live on air or somethin', I don't know. 56:09.900 --> 56:11.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Where's it all going? 56:11.833 --> 56:13.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm flabbergasted. 56:13.733 --> 56:16.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Technology keeps me humble. 56:18.933 --> 56:21.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] I was wondering, in southwest India, 56:21.733 --> 56:25.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% how it's doing with providing electricity 56:25.966 --> 56:30.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% or solar power, water. 56:30.633 --> 56:33.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I keep reading about, hearing about various projects 56:33.366 --> 56:37.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to bring into parts of India different kinds of power. 56:37.866 --> 56:40.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Yeah, it's actually, each of those is a different problem. 56:40.666 --> 56:43.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm going to go all the way back to my water map. 56:43.333 --> 56:45.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But at the very beginning, what you noticed 56:45.500 --> 56:49.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% about the natural distribution of rainfall 56:49.700 --> 56:51.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in India, 56:51.700 --> 56:53.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in this part of India even, 56:53.733 --> 56:56.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is it's really dramatically uneven, right? 56:56.600 --> 56:58.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So what we're lookin' at here, 56:58.900 --> 57:00.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm almost there, sorry. 57:00.400 --> 57:02.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is a good map for that. 57:03.500 --> 57:04.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Here we go. 57:05.000 --> 57:07.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Is that you've got, in these areas here, 57:07.933 --> 57:09.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% this is just natural condition. 57:09.466 --> 57:11.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Now, these will change with climate change 57:11.933 --> 57:14.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and changes in the monsoon over the next century. 57:14.166 --> 57:15.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% God only knows what's gonna happen. 57:15.700 --> 57:17.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But for the moment, historically, 57:17.233 --> 57:19.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% over 250 centimeters along the coast, 57:19.166 --> 57:21.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what happens is the monsoon seasonally comes up here, 57:21.966 --> 57:23.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% blasts down here, 57:23.633 --> 57:25.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% spends itself on the west side of the hills, 57:26.066 --> 57:28.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and by the time it gets over here and goes north 57:28.266 --> 57:31.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it's kind of dumped a lot of its moisture. 57:31.700 --> 57:35.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So this is a water deficit place, right? 57:35.333 --> 57:37.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And this is a water surplus place. 57:37.500 --> 57:39.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's the state of Kerala down here. 57:39.200 --> 57:40.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is the state of Karnataka here. 57:40.900 --> 57:42.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But the most wealthy people, 57:42.533 --> 57:46.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% all those software engineers who are living very, 57:46.233 --> 57:47.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I see them. 57:47.533 --> 57:50.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're on BMW motorcycles in leather coats 57:50.233 --> 57:52.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and giant cameras on their back, 57:52.733 --> 57:55.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and they're going into the countryside to photograph birds. 57:55.500 --> 57:56.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Those people all live here in 57:56.866 --> 58:01.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in what is essentially a high elevation desert. 58:01.500 --> 58:03.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, in the end, they're gonna have to redistribute water. 58:04.033 --> 58:05.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're going to. 58:05.466 --> 58:08.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Right, there's only so much conservation they can do. 58:08.233 --> 58:09.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Somebody's gonna build a big dam right here, 58:09.933 --> 58:11.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% because what's happening? 58:11.366 --> 58:13.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The water is basically coming here and running into the ocean. 58:14.000 --> 58:16.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And from the point of view of the Indian government, 58:16.100 --> 58:17.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% that's a waste of resources. 58:17.600 --> 58:19.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Now, we can argue about what happens 58:19.800 --> 58:21.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% when you build big dams. 58:21.366 --> 58:23.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're always environmentally problematic. 58:23.300 --> 58:25.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So trade-offs, trade-offs, trade-offs. 58:25.400 --> 58:27.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But water's gonna be redistributed. 58:27.666 --> 58:30.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Energy? Yeah. 58:30.200 --> 58:31.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Energy is coming online like nothing I've ever seen. 58:32.033 --> 58:34.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Electricity everywhere in the south, 58:34.200 --> 58:36.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and it is coming very heavily, unfortunately, 58:36.133 --> 58:38.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% from coal fired power plants, 58:38.466 --> 58:42.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which means contributions to global climate change. 58:42.800 --> 58:45.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know? So what would you prefer? 58:45.633 --> 58:47.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Solar energy, okay, there's some. 58:47.766 --> 58:49.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Particular in distributed rural areas. 58:49.533 --> 58:51.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But to keep the lights on in Bangalore... 58:53.066 --> 58:55.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% how do you feel about nuclear power? 58:57.466 --> 59:00.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Seriously, how do you feel about it? 59:01.200 --> 59:03.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm asking. 59:03.233 --> 59:05.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The person who asked the question, 59:05.166 --> 59:06.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% how do you feel about it? 59:06.633 --> 59:09.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Well, I see some of the positives (static) 59:09.733 --> 59:12.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% compared to coal. - [Paul] Compared to coal. 59:12.333 --> 59:15.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Compared to coal, you know, burning people alive 59:16.066 --> 59:17.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is probably a better idea, you know? 59:17.733 --> 59:20.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Coal is like the filthiest thing. (audience laughter) 59:20.833 --> 59:23.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Oh, my god. (audience laughter) 59:23.333 --> 59:27.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, my point here is that infrastructure 59:27.200 --> 59:29.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% is on the rise throughout India 59:29.400 --> 59:30.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Dams are going in. 59:30.900 --> 59:33.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Roads, the roads are unbelievably good 59:33.133 --> 59:36.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% compared to what I remember from 1988, you know? 59:36.133 --> 59:38.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% When you had to make a trunk phone call home. 59:38.900 --> 59:42.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, it's not the India of anybody's memory. 59:42.100 --> 59:44.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The last five years has fundamentally changed 59:44.766 --> 59:46.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% the infrastructure system, 59:46.366 --> 59:48.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which means a redistribution in energy, 59:48.166 --> 59:50.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it means a redistribution in water. 59:50.433 --> 59:53.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's massive and some of it is very problematic, 59:53.833 --> 59:56.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but some of it is really filled with possibilities. 59:56.366 --> 59:57.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You get those people back in those, 59:57.800 --> 59:59.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% get 'em in the city, right? 59:59.700 --> 01:00:01.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Where it costs a whole lot less water 01:00:01.333 --> 01:00:02.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and a whole let less energy 01:00:02.733 --> 01:00:05.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% when you're in a big well built apartment block 01:00:05.566 --> 01:00:07.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% than if you're distributed across 01:00:07.100 --> 01:00:09.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% a large suburban kind of sprawl, right? 01:00:09.466 --> 01:00:11.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, going back to the earlier question 01:00:11.300 --> 01:00:13.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% from the gentleman on the back right, 01:00:13.333 --> 01:00:14.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% this is happening in India, 01:00:15.000 --> 01:00:17.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and it's sure happening in China. 01:00:17.833 --> 01:00:20.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, there are cities even exist 01:00:20.466 --> 01:00:21.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% 20 years ago in any meaningful way, 01:00:21.933 --> 01:00:25.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which are larger than any city in the United States. 01:00:25.133 --> 01:00:27.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Everything interesting is happening somewhere else. 01:00:27.466 --> 01:00:28.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% For the most part. 01:00:28.933 --> 01:00:30.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm a geographer, so I get to say that. 01:00:30.900 --> 01:00:33.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm really sorry what I said about bodies. 01:00:33.466 --> 01:00:36.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's kind of a Soylent Greeny kind of thing to say. 01:00:37.066 --> 01:00:38.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So regretting it. 01:00:38.633 --> 01:00:40.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Okay, so that's the answer to that question, 01:00:40.933 --> 01:00:43.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is that a lot of infrastructure is going in. 01:00:45.933 --> 01:00:49.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] So I live on the east side of Madison. 01:00:49.333 --> 01:00:52.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We have an old garage. 01:00:52.100 --> 01:00:55.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% We have an apple tree that's gotten climbed on and it's going to die. 01:00:55.500 --> 01:00:57.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We have our curly willow 01:00:57.233 --> 01:00:59.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that I feel like I need to cut down, 01:00:59.200 --> 01:01:01.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% because it's getting very tall. 01:01:01.533 --> 01:01:03.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We have easements 01:01:03.766 --> 01:01:06.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that we mow every couple of weeks. 01:01:06.966 --> 01:01:09.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Should we just let some of these things go? 01:01:09.866 --> 01:01:11.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We've got squirrels and-- 01:01:11.500 --> 01:01:13.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] That's a great-- - [Audience] ...and rabbits. 01:01:13.866 --> 01:01:15.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] You could have so much more, right? 01:01:15.666 --> 01:01:17.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So there's lots of ways to cultivate biodiversity 01:01:17.733 --> 01:01:18.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in suburban landscapes. 01:01:19.033 --> 01:01:20.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, when I'm not researching India, by the way, 01:01:20.966 --> 01:01:22.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I wrote another book called Lawn People, 01:01:22.766 --> 01:01:26.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is about why people use chemicals and keep lawns. 01:01:26.466 --> 01:01:27.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% People who use lawn chemicals, 01:01:27.766 --> 01:01:30.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in our nationwide study in the United States, 01:01:30.166 --> 01:01:32.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are more likely to say that lawn chemicals are bad 01:01:32.333 --> 01:01:34.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for the environment, their children, and water quality 01:01:34.233 --> 01:01:35.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% than people who don't use chemicals. 01:01:35.966 --> 01:01:38.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Which means they read the bag, you know? 01:01:38.366 --> 01:01:40.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And they're like, "I feel so bad." 01:01:40.666 --> 01:01:42.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I don't have a lot of practical suggestions there, 01:01:42.866 --> 01:01:45.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but what I did in that research was meet a lot of people 01:01:45.833 --> 01:01:48.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who have online, you know, online not-for-profits 01:01:48.933 --> 01:01:50.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that will tell you all the different ways 01:01:50.566 --> 01:01:52.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you could bring pollinators back to your landscape, 01:01:52.866 --> 01:01:55.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% restore just little swaths of native prairie. 01:01:56.033 --> 01:01:58.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's all kinds of groovy stuff you could do. 01:01:58.233 --> 01:02:01.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, one of the great things about being an American 01:02:01.666 --> 01:02:04.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is that you've got all this land that you get to play with, 01:02:04.600 --> 01:02:06.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, compared to, say, people living in Bangalore, 01:02:06.966 --> 01:02:08.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% right, who might have a garden plot. 01:02:09.000 --> 01:02:11.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You actually have an opportunity to experiment. 01:02:11.366 --> 01:02:12.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And there's lots of resources. 01:02:12.900 --> 01:02:14.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% More resources than I could ever tell you. 01:02:14.800 --> 01:02:17.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And it's basically restoration ecology that you can perform. 01:02:18.033 --> 01:02:22.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And this university, this great university, 01:02:22.400 --> 01:02:24.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is the one that invented restoration ecology. 01:02:24.800 --> 01:02:26.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There are people on this campus in Extension 01:02:27.000 --> 01:02:29.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who will come out to your property and say, yeah, 01:02:29.466 --> 01:02:32.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you could bring in, you know, indigenous grass varieties. 01:02:33.033 --> 01:02:34.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It would increase your birds 01:02:34.333 --> 01:02:35.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and pollinators and butterflies. 01:02:35.833 --> 01:02:38.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is easy for them, this is what they're paid for. 01:02:38.233 --> 01:02:39.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're paid out of your taxes 01:02:39.866 --> 01:02:42.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to tell you how to restore biodiversity. 01:02:42.233 --> 01:02:45.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Call them. So that's the answer. 01:02:45.166 --> 01:02:47.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And I think that that's the other part of this citizenship thing. 01:02:48.066 --> 01:02:50.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Yes, if it works for somebody who has to make a living 01:02:50.566 --> 01:02:52.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% out of coffee or his kids don't eat, 01:02:53.000 --> 01:02:55.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% then it'll work for you on a landscape 01:02:55.100 --> 01:02:57.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that's essentially recreational for you purposes, right. 01:02:57.566 --> 01:03:00.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I assume you're not making your living off of that property. 01:03:00.800 --> 01:03:03.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That gives you an enormous gift. 01:03:03.133 --> 01:03:05.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's the gift of discretion, 01:03:05.733 --> 01:03:08.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% freedom to kind of experiment. 01:03:08.533 --> 01:03:12.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So experimenting on your landscape is great. 01:03:12.166 --> 01:03:13.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We just have a big forest. 01:03:13.733 --> 01:03:16.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I insisted that I just couldn't have a lawn. 01:03:16.333 --> 01:03:17.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They freak me out. 01:03:17.900 --> 01:03:20.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Because I always feel bad I'm not mowing it, right. 01:03:20.333 --> 01:03:22.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I always feel bad I'm not putting pesticides on it. 01:03:22.366 --> 01:03:23.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's the whole national culture. 01:03:23.900 --> 01:03:28.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're totally, we feel bad that we're not doing bad things. 01:03:28.533 --> 01:03:31.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% That's crazy. It's nuts. Great opportunity. 01:03:31.633 --> 01:03:34.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And the east side, do you know that there is a municipal? 01:03:34.966 --> 01:03:37.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is a pioneering municipality. 01:03:37.433 --> 01:03:40.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's a law here, I don't know if it's still on the books, 01:03:40.400 --> 01:03:43.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but it was written about in a law journal in the 1990s, 01:03:43.866 --> 01:03:47.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that is basically a freedom to farm act for your lawn. 01:03:47.366 --> 01:03:50.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It makes it harder for your neighbors to sue you 01:03:50.733 --> 01:03:53.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% if you do something that isn't lawn, 01:03:53.100 --> 01:03:55.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% right, because this is the biggest problem. 01:03:55.266 --> 01:03:59.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In Florida, if you remove your lawn, 01:03:59.800 --> 01:04:01.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you're likely to be sued by your neighbors. 01:04:01.533 --> 01:04:03.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You may actually be in a homeowners association 01:04:03.266 --> 01:04:05.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% where it's actually against, you know, 01:04:05.566 --> 01:04:07.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% it's actually against the rules. 01:04:07.466 --> 01:04:10.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You can be fined, right? People are fined. 01:04:10.166 --> 01:04:11.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Every spring, read the Florida newspapers. 01:04:11.600 --> 01:04:14.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's like 15 lawsuits against some clown who didn't, 01:04:14.533 --> 01:04:16.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you know, cut their lawn on time. 01:04:17.800 --> 01:04:20.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're living on the east side of Madison? 01:04:20.366 --> 01:04:21.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's like paradise for this stuff. 01:04:22.033 --> 01:04:23.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If you aren't, like, growing weird stuff, 01:04:24.033 --> 01:04:25.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you're missing a huge opportunity. 01:04:26.000 --> 01:04:28.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% There are people in Florida who would love to trade places with you. 01:04:29.033 --> 01:04:32.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Is that helpful? Go do it. 01:04:32.400 --> 01:04:34.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We got foxes runnin' through the property. 01:04:34.633 --> 01:04:36.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I've never seen anything like it. 01:04:36.566 --> 01:04:38.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And they are bold. 01:04:38.133 --> 01:04:40.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They look into the window, and they're just like... 01:04:40.766 --> 01:04:43.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% (audience laughter) I love 'em. 01:04:43.433 --> 01:04:45.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The dogs are flummoxed. 01:04:45.800 --> 01:04:47.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% These are two Great Danes and they're like... 01:04:48.866 --> 01:04:50.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, nature. (audience laughter) 01:04:50.366 --> 01:04:54.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% All right, was there another question? (chuckles) 01:04:54.233 --> 01:04:56.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] I wanted to go back to the frogs. 01:04:56.566 --> 01:04:59.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, one, how will this infrastructure affect the frogs? 01:05:00.000 --> 01:05:02.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And, secondly, you talked about the, 01:05:02.466 --> 01:05:05.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you didn't understand why the stream pour in the north 01:05:05.366 --> 01:05:06.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% wouldn't move down to the south. 01:05:06.900 --> 01:05:08.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] We haven't seen it yet. 01:05:08.500 --> 01:05:10.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] What if there was a movement 01:05:10.133 --> 01:05:12.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to bring them there? 01:05:12.233 --> 01:05:15.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How would that affect the frogs, and how long 01:05:15.100 --> 01:05:19.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% would it take them to get back to their sustainability-- 01:05:19.133 --> 01:05:21.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] Right, great questions. 01:05:21.300 --> 01:05:24.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So let me take the second one first, and then we'll go back. 01:05:24.566 --> 01:05:26.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% See, the thing is, cheap labor 01:05:26.466 --> 01:05:29.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is what makes the biodiversity possible. 01:05:29.666 --> 01:05:31.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I don't think I've been entirely clear here. 01:05:31.566 --> 01:05:34.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The fact that people can get their hands on cheap labor, 01:05:34.900 --> 01:05:37.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which has always been true until recently, 01:05:37.366 --> 01:05:38.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% means that they can have 01:05:38.900 --> 01:05:40.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% a highly extensive biodiverse system. 01:05:40.966 --> 01:05:42.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It counted on, 01:05:42.500 --> 01:05:45.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% poverty was the secret engine of biodiversity in the region. 01:05:45.966 --> 01:05:48.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That was the point that I don't think I made strongly enough. 01:05:48.533 --> 01:05:51.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's the availability of cheap labor that means 01:05:51.133 --> 01:05:53.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% you don't have to intensify production, 01:05:53.433 --> 01:05:55.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% open up the canopy, change your cropping 01:05:55.900 --> 01:05:58.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% into something more industrial, because labor, 01:05:58.800 --> 01:06:00.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% whenever you replace labor in agriculture, 01:06:00.966 --> 01:06:03.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% there's only one thing you can replace it with: 01:06:03.866 --> 01:06:05.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% technology, right. 01:06:05.300 --> 01:06:08.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's what the history of farming in the United States is. 01:06:08.166 --> 01:06:12.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's why less than 1% of the population actually farms. 01:06:12.233 --> 01:06:14.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's because all of that labor has been displaced 01:06:14.766 --> 01:06:16.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% by giant machines. 01:06:16.733 --> 01:06:19.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's much harder to mechanize coffee, I should point out. 01:06:19.366 --> 01:06:21.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But my point about this is I'm not convinced 01:06:21.800 --> 01:06:23.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that bringing in migrant labor from Bahar 01:06:23.700 --> 01:06:25.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% would be bad for biodiversity. 01:06:25.100 --> 01:06:27.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It might be bad for those workers. 01:06:27.500 --> 01:06:30.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It might be an opportunity for them, though, too. 01:06:30.166 --> 01:06:33.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So that's just a question I don't have anywhere near 01:06:33.500 --> 01:06:35.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the resources or knowledge to answer. 01:06:35.566 --> 01:06:37.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] So is there any push to do that, Paul? 01:06:37.733 --> 01:06:39.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Not on the part of the state governments. 01:06:39.500 --> 01:06:41.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Nobody's saying, yeah, we should go up to Bihar 01:06:41.433 --> 01:06:43.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and get trucks of workers, but what you do see 01:06:43.933 --> 01:06:45.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in the Indian economy is trucks of workers. 01:06:46.066 --> 01:06:49.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's a whole other, this is not my area, labor economics. 01:06:49.266 --> 01:06:52.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's a whole economy of people who go 01:06:52.800 --> 01:06:55.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and broker workers with landowners. 01:06:55.900 --> 01:06:57.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So they go to the landowner and say, 01:06:57.900 --> 01:06:59.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% "How many workers are you gonna need? 01:06:59.566 --> 01:07:01.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% "How long are you gonna need 'em?" 01:07:01.233 --> 01:07:02.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% He contracts that. 01:07:02.900 --> 01:07:05.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Then he'll go back up to some other place, and he'll find, 01:07:05.600 --> 01:07:07.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% round up those workers essentially, 01:07:07.733 --> 01:07:10.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% sign a contract with them, put them in the truck, 01:07:11.066 --> 01:07:12.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and drive them to the owner. 01:07:13.000 --> 01:07:16.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And usually the situation is very, very bad for the worker. 01:07:16.766 --> 01:07:18.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Like, the people making money there 01:07:18.933 --> 01:07:21.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are the farm owner and the broker. 01:07:21.233 --> 01:07:23.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Having said that, it happens all the time. 01:07:23.300 --> 01:07:24.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So that's just a side note, 01:07:24.766 --> 01:07:26.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is that there is a labor economy. 01:07:26.833 --> 01:07:28.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We just haven't seen it. 01:07:28.933 --> 01:07:30.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Well, that almost sounds like slave trade. 01:07:31.000 --> 01:07:33.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Well, I'll tell you what slave trade is. 01:07:33.433 --> 01:07:36.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Slave trade is the people who lived on these farms 01:07:36.400 --> 01:07:40.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for the last hundred years without electricity in huts 01:07:40.833 --> 01:07:44.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% on the private owner's farm accepting whatever terms 01:07:44.566 --> 01:07:47.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for pay, subsistence pay, they were receiving. 01:07:47.166 --> 01:07:49.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That was first British colonial people 01:07:49.433 --> 01:07:51.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and now wealthy Indians, essentially. 01:07:51.700 --> 01:07:52.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That is slavery. 01:07:53.066 --> 01:07:54.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And now, this is what's so great about it, 01:07:55.033 --> 01:07:57.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the owners are complaining, right. 01:07:57.666 --> 01:08:00.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is the punchline. Workers are lazy. 01:08:00.166 --> 01:08:02.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Workers are smoking cigarettes. 01:08:02.566 --> 01:08:04.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's because they won't be treated like slaves anymore. 01:08:04.700 --> 01:08:07.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's an economic revolution going on. 01:08:07.500 --> 01:08:09.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's enormously exciting. 01:08:09.166 --> 01:08:11.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The worry is, right, that farmers 01:08:11.300 --> 01:08:14.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% with the loss of that labor, it's good for workers, right? 01:08:14.133 --> 01:08:15.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The loss of that labor might make decisions 01:08:15.866 --> 01:08:18.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to intensify production which might be bad for frogs. 01:08:19.733 --> 01:08:23.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, what's good for workers isn't always good for frogs. 01:08:23.133 --> 01:08:24.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How do we? That's sustainability science. 01:08:24.966 --> 01:08:26.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's the problem, right? 01:08:26.400 --> 01:08:29.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We'd like to think that if we just did the right thing, 01:08:29.966 --> 01:08:32.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% everything else would follow. 01:08:32.100 --> 01:08:33.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And it doesn't work like that. 01:08:33.666 --> 01:08:35.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The system's too complex. 01:08:36.033 --> 01:08:37.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Does that help? 01:08:37.633 --> 01:08:39.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] Well, so the frogs are, I mean, 01:08:39.600 --> 01:08:42.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the sustainability of the frogs is very hard to (mumbles). 01:08:42.233 --> 01:08:43.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Right? - [Paul] Right. 01:08:43.700 --> 01:08:45.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Audience] So it's not like, 01:08:45.533 --> 01:08:48.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it seems like if you're trying to solve one solution, 01:08:48.166 --> 01:08:49.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% you're not, 01:08:49.633 --> 01:08:52.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it almost seemed very ideal when you first presented it, 01:08:52.500 --> 01:08:54.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that we did this and it was good for everybody, 01:08:55.066 --> 01:08:56.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% including the frogs. 01:08:56.566 --> 01:08:58.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - It was good for the frogs. 01:08:58.333 --> 01:09:00.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The question is, how do you sustain it? 01:09:00.400 --> 01:09:02.933 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So, do you subsidize it? 01:09:03.033 --> 01:09:06.133 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% Do you build cooperatives? 01:09:06.233 --> 01:09:08.200 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% Are farmers who have cooperatives, 01:09:08.300 --> 01:09:09.733 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% is it easier, in other words, 01:09:09.833 --> 01:09:13.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% on their pocketbook to retain avian diversity, 01:09:13.333 --> 01:09:15.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% because they're retaining tree diversity? 01:09:15.333 --> 01:09:17.733 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% These are our questions we don't have answers to yet, 01:09:17.833 --> 01:09:20.633 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% but what we wanna do is find those levers, 01:09:20.733 --> 01:09:23.266 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% because the farmers aren't doing it for frogs. 01:09:23.366 --> 01:09:25.166 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It's not idyllic. 01:09:25.266 --> 01:09:27.266 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% It's a happy accident. 01:09:27.366 --> 01:09:30.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Like most things in the world, you know? 01:09:30.166 --> 01:09:32.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So how can you reproduce a happy accident? 01:09:32.666 --> 01:09:35.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And I think that that's the role of experimentation, 01:09:35.433 --> 01:09:36.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% adaptive management. 01:09:36.933 --> 01:09:38.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You try something, you see if it works. 01:09:38.766 --> 01:09:40.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's trial and error. 01:09:40.233 --> 01:09:42.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% It's essentially a crude form of the scientific method, in a sense. 01:09:42.933 --> 01:09:46.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So I think that there's lots of things we can do in India to preserve biodiversity. 01:09:46.266 --> 01:09:47.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I wouldn't call it precarious. 01:09:47.800 --> 01:09:50.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, it's all in the eye of the beholder, 01:09:50.566 --> 01:09:52.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% but look at how much diversity we're finding 01:09:52.433 --> 01:09:54.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% where nobody even tried to keep it. 01:09:54.833 --> 01:09:57.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What if we were trying? 01:09:57.133 --> 01:09:59.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Imagine what we could achieve. 01:10:00.200 --> 01:10:02.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Half full, glass half full. 01:10:02.500 --> 01:10:04.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What was the first question though? 01:10:04.233 --> 01:10:06.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] About the infrastructure and the frogs. 01:10:06.633 --> 01:10:08.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - Well, I don't know, you know? 01:10:08.300 --> 01:10:11.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think the frogs depend a lot on standing water. 01:10:11.666 --> 01:10:13.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The birds depend on tree diversity, 01:10:13.166 --> 01:10:15.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% so they really are responding to two different things. 01:10:15.266 --> 01:10:16.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And I assume that pesticides, 01:10:16.833 --> 01:10:18.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% although I still have to run these tests, 01:10:18.700 --> 01:10:20.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% are bad for frogs. 01:10:20.833 --> 01:10:22.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But I don't know that. 01:10:22.300 --> 01:10:23.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We've got to run some regressions and, 01:10:23.733 --> 01:10:26.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% you know, figure that out. 01:10:26.700 --> 01:10:29.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I don't think large scale, this is a different problem. 01:10:29.400 --> 01:10:31.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If you move a huge amount of water 01:10:31.266 --> 01:10:33.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% from the western part of India to the central part of India, 01:10:33.766 --> 01:10:36.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and you build a big dam, all kinds of things are gonna die. 01:10:36.500 --> 01:10:38.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% That's what's gonna happen. 01:10:38.166 --> 01:10:41.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Having said that, you know, not moving that water 01:10:41.733 --> 01:10:43.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% means a bunch of people might move somewhere else 01:10:43.733 --> 01:10:45.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and a bunch of things would die. 01:10:45.333 --> 01:10:48.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So I think, at this point, you have a series of trade-offs. 01:10:48.533 --> 01:10:50.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's what sustainability's about. 01:10:50.500 --> 01:10:54.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Like, there's not some magic thing we can do. 01:10:54.166 --> 01:10:56.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We're stuck here together. 01:10:56.366 --> 01:10:58.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Us, the frogs, you know? 01:10:58.600 --> 01:11:02.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We're gonna have to just, like, muddle through. 01:11:02.200 --> 01:11:06.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm confident we have the apparatus to do that. 01:11:06.300 --> 01:11:09.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And the frogs are depending on it, because the frogs aren't gonna move. 01:11:09.700 --> 01:11:11.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% These are endemic species. 01:11:11.300 --> 01:11:13.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You can't just pick them up and put them somewhere. 01:11:13.700 --> 01:11:16.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% If you want that diversity, you're gonna have to 01:11:16.533 --> 01:11:20.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% put your hand on the land and be a steward. 01:11:21.666 --> 01:11:24.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I don't think we are as gods, 01:11:24.133 --> 01:11:26.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% but we are the biggest, 01:11:27.066 --> 01:11:29.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% noisiest animal, you know? 01:11:29.466 --> 01:11:31.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And you're gonna have to do something. 01:11:31.100 --> 01:11:33.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're gonna have to make decisions. 01:11:35.866 --> 01:11:38.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm having a lot of fun. 01:11:38.400 --> 01:11:40.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You have a good group. 01:11:41.700 --> 01:11:43.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Yeah. 01:11:43.300 --> 01:11:45.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] You touched on it a bit 01:11:45.933 --> 01:11:48.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% when you talked about Singapore. 01:11:48.266 --> 01:11:51.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Would you comment on the way forward 01:11:51.366 --> 01:11:55.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for countries where declining birth rate is dramatic 01:11:55.900 --> 01:11:58.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and serious. 01:11:58.633 --> 01:12:02.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Like Japan and South Korea and industrialized 01:12:02.100 --> 01:12:04.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% most of Europe and so forth. 01:12:05.500 --> 01:12:08.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What is the way forward for those countries? 01:12:08.800 --> 01:12:10.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Is it immigration? 01:12:11.300 --> 01:12:14.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Well, that's outside of my pay grade. 01:12:14.933 --> 01:12:16.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But I would, 01:12:16.366 --> 01:12:19.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So I'm not gonna punt, I'm gonna answer, but it's, 01:12:19.666 --> 01:12:21.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I don't have an answer to that. 01:12:21.400 --> 01:12:25.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, my opinion's probably as useful as yours is, right? 01:12:25.233 --> 01:12:26.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Because it's not informed very well. 01:12:26.633 --> 01:12:28.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I haven't done-- That's not true. 01:12:28.700 --> 01:12:31.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I am publishing a paper right now on international population decline. 01:12:31.266 --> 01:12:33.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, yes, I am an expert. (audience laughter) 01:12:33.133 --> 01:12:34.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What I will say is this-- 01:12:34.766 --> 01:12:37.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% - [Audience] And there's environmental impact reports, too, 01:12:37.533 --> 01:12:40.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to the success in the industrialization in other-- 01:12:40.733 --> 01:12:42.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] Yes, you bet. 01:12:42.266 --> 01:12:43.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] In those countries. 01:12:43.766 --> 01:12:45.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - But depopulation, in many cases, 01:12:45.233 --> 01:12:48.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is about land abandonment and forests coming back. 01:12:48.700 --> 01:12:50.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The Kuznets curve as it's referred to, right? 01:12:50.766 --> 01:12:53.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I don't fully believe in it, but we have seen, 01:12:53.366 --> 01:12:56.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in countries that have developed rapidly, 01:12:56.133 --> 01:12:58.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% we see land abandonment for people moving to the city, 01:12:58.400 --> 01:13:00.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and what happens on the land they've abandoned? 01:13:00.400 --> 01:13:01.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This has happened in the Andes. 01:13:02.033 --> 01:13:03.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This has happened throughout Latin America. 01:13:03.933 --> 01:13:05.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (imitates explosion) 01:13:05.533 --> 01:13:06.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Crazy nature comes back. 01:13:06.933 --> 01:13:08.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It wasn't the nature we had before, 01:13:08.433 --> 01:13:09.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% because you can never really go back. 01:13:09.966 --> 01:13:13.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But it's still like, you know, forests and whatnot. 01:13:13.666 --> 01:13:17.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, depopulation has all kinds of interesting implications 01:13:17.100 --> 01:13:19.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% for biodiversity that aren't always negative. 01:13:19.333 --> 01:13:21.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They can be positive. 01:13:21.400 --> 01:13:23.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What's appropriate policy? (scoffs) 01:13:23.766 --> 01:13:25.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You know, you're going to need labor. 01:13:25.633 --> 01:13:27.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You got an aging population. 01:13:27.500 --> 01:13:30.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, the biggest problem, the global problem, 01:13:30.166 --> 01:13:34.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is really about ethnicity, race, and tolerance. 01:13:34.166 --> 01:13:35.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're gonna need people who are, 01:13:35.966 --> 01:13:39.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who's taking care of all those aging people? 01:13:39.233 --> 01:13:43.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Foreign nationals in almost all these countries. 01:13:43.400 --> 01:13:46.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Not in China, yet. Somebody has to, you know. 01:13:47.033 --> 01:13:48.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In populations that are shrinking, 01:13:48.500 --> 01:13:52.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% they're also aging, like the state of Wisconsin is aging. 01:13:52.700 --> 01:13:55.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Who is gonna look after people as they get older? 01:13:55.933 --> 01:13:57.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% It's a fascinating question. 01:13:57.500 --> 01:13:59.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% For the most part, it means foreign nationals. 01:13:59.466 --> 01:14:01.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It means immigration until we've got, 01:14:01.166 --> 01:14:03.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% worked up the robot solution. 01:14:03.733 --> 01:14:05.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You think I'm kidding. 01:14:05.633 --> 01:14:07.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm totally, like, the robots are everywhere. 01:14:08.033 --> 01:14:11.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I thought it was such a 1960s thing, the robot, but now I see it. 01:14:11.233 --> 01:14:13.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I was just over at dairy, it was all robotic. 01:14:13.200 --> 01:14:15.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Maybe the robots are gonna take care of me when I'm old. 01:14:15.366 --> 01:14:16.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I have no idea, okay? 01:14:16.766 --> 01:14:18.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But what I am saying is that right now 01:14:18.733 --> 01:14:21.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the policies are bad because they tend to be chauvinistic. 01:14:21.233 --> 01:14:22.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They tend to be anti-immigrant. 01:14:23.066 --> 01:14:25.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They tend to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, 01:14:25.966 --> 01:14:27.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is aspiring populations of people 01:14:27.766 --> 01:14:29.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% who are ready to labor in an economy 01:14:29.600 --> 01:14:32.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% where the laboring population is declining 01:14:32.733 --> 01:14:36.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and the dependent population is aging out. 01:14:36.666 --> 01:14:38.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, generally speaking, you're gonna have to learn 01:14:38.533 --> 01:14:41.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to live with strangers in your midst. 01:14:41.733 --> 01:14:43.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And that's, I actually think this is, 01:14:44.066 --> 01:14:46.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the United States has actually performed better 01:14:46.400 --> 01:14:48.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% than many of the countries you just mentioned. 01:14:48.300 --> 01:14:50.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Singapore is terrible in this regard. 01:14:50.500 --> 01:14:52.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's why they want more Singaporeans. 01:14:52.233 --> 01:14:53.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're trying to keep the population 01:14:53.633 --> 01:14:55.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of all the immigrants down while they're trying 01:14:55.333 --> 01:14:57.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to encourage their own population to reproduce, 01:14:57.666 --> 01:14:59.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and it's hopeless. 01:14:59.133 --> 01:15:01.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% People don't wanna have more kids. 01:15:01.533 --> 01:15:02.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Wealthy people. 01:15:02.900 --> 01:15:06.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So, that gets into a social system, you know, 01:15:06.300 --> 01:15:08.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% about which I am strictly an amateur. 01:15:08.366 --> 01:15:12.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But this is about immigration, race, tolerance, diversity. 01:15:13.033 --> 01:15:14.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Cosmopolitanism. 01:15:16.766 --> 01:15:19.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Payment for effective labor. 01:15:19.766 --> 01:15:22.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% By effective labor I mean who looks after old people, 01:15:22.733 --> 01:15:25.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% who takes care of kids, right? 01:15:25.166 --> 01:15:27.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% You know, that labor force. 01:15:27.400 --> 01:15:29.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% This is the most important labor force of the 21st century 01:15:29.633 --> 01:15:31.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% precisely because of the demographic shift. 01:15:31.833 --> 01:15:34.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But now we're kind of off the sustainability question 01:15:34.533 --> 01:15:37.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% a little bit, but I think it's the question. 01:15:37.300 --> 01:15:40.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There are a lot of smart people working on it. 01:15:40.466 --> 01:15:42.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I'm just not one of them. 01:15:42.566 --> 01:15:44.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What do you think? 01:15:44.800 --> 01:15:48.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] I agree with some of the things that you said. 01:15:48.600 --> 01:15:53.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That other people need to be (mumbles). 01:15:53.100 --> 01:15:54.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] There's no way around it. 01:15:58.500 --> 01:16:01.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Audience] And this will turn... 01:16:02.933 --> 01:16:07.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The sustainability, it has to be an issue then, 01:16:07.500 --> 01:16:09.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in those countries. 01:16:09.333 --> 01:16:12.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - Yes, and there's all kinds of opportunities here. 01:16:12.833 --> 01:16:14.466 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% When you're working in the United States 01:16:14.566 --> 01:16:17.033 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and you're sending remittances home, 01:16:17.133 --> 01:16:19.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% all kinds of things can happen on that landscape 01:16:19.333 --> 01:16:21.866 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% that are possible in a way that mining the hell out of it 01:16:21.966 --> 01:16:24.100 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% for resources when you're really hungry 01:16:24.200 --> 01:16:26.633 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% and you don't have all that money coming in from the US, 01:16:26.733 --> 01:16:28.333 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% it's a worse option. 01:16:28.433 --> 01:16:29.800 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And it's an open question. 01:16:29.900 --> 01:16:31.766 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% There's some empirical research that needs to be done here, 01:16:31.866 --> 01:16:33.800 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% but I would guess remittances are probably good 01:16:33.900 --> 01:16:36.233 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% for the environment in the receiving country, 01:16:36.333 --> 01:16:39.600 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% if I just had to make up a hypothesis to test. 01:16:39.700 --> 01:16:41.500 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% And that can be a good thing. 01:16:41.600 --> 01:16:43.600 align:left position:10%,start line:5% size:80% So that's kind of the sustainability relationship. 01:16:43.700 --> 01:16:46.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Triple bottom line, right? 01:16:46.266 --> 01:16:49.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Poor people's aspirations, biodiversity, 01:16:49.566 --> 01:16:52.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% environmental protection, yeah. 01:16:52.833 --> 01:16:54.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So much so, in fact, that the environmental groups 01:16:54.933 --> 01:16:56.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% in the United States, 01:16:56.333 --> 01:16:59.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which historically have been somewhat anti-immigrant, 01:16:59.566 --> 01:17:02.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% have changed their mind on this question. 01:17:02.633 --> 01:17:05.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% So a number of very, very important, notable, 01:17:05.600 --> 01:17:08.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Sierra Club-like organizations have gone 01:17:08.633 --> 01:17:10.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% from flirting with an anti-immigrant policy 01:17:11.000 --> 01:17:13.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to staying out of that fight entirely. 01:17:13.500 --> 01:17:15.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The seat change on this has been quite dramatic 01:17:15.633 --> 01:17:18.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in the environmental community, and I salute it. 01:17:20.833 --> 01:17:22.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Okay. 01:17:22.300 --> 01:17:26.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] On your first point, Paul, about integration. 01:17:27.700 --> 01:17:29.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Oh, integration of the sciences. 01:17:29.200 --> 01:17:30.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:17:30.666 --> 01:17:33.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Well, was it just the integration of sciences 01:17:33.266 --> 01:17:36.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% or integration of different forces in society 01:17:37.066 --> 01:17:41.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to deal with the changes that are happening 01:17:42.133 --> 01:17:45.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% either caused by humans or otherwise? 01:17:46.066 --> 01:17:49.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Integration is hard, right? 01:17:49.966 --> 01:17:51.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] Yeah, yeah. 01:17:51.833 --> 01:17:53.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] By your first definition of that. 01:17:54.000 --> 01:17:57.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Yeah, it's a good question, Bassam. 01:18:00.166 --> 01:18:02.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] So you're referring to the integration of knowledge. 01:18:02.933 --> 01:18:04.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Paul] Knowledge. As a science. 01:18:04.600 --> 01:18:07.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But, of course, it's because of the problem is an integrated one. 01:18:07.133 --> 01:18:09.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, if there's anything about the frogs and the birds 01:18:09.566 --> 01:18:12.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% which is universal and not just about agroforest, 01:18:12.966 --> 01:18:16.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% it's the fact that if you keep chasing the causal chain 01:18:16.700 --> 01:18:20.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of why here you don't have diversity, here you do. 01:18:20.500 --> 01:18:21.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Why? 01:18:21.666 --> 01:18:23.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Oh, because farmer Jane is doing X. 01:18:24.066 --> 01:18:25.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Well, why? 01:18:25.600 --> 01:18:28.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You're gonna wind up in a causal network, 01:18:28.833 --> 01:18:30.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% which is gonna be well beyond 01:18:30.333 --> 01:18:33.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% what predator prey relationships are gonna explain. 01:18:33.866 --> 01:18:35.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We're going to get past zoology 01:18:35.933 --> 01:18:37.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and wildlife biology pretty quickly. 01:18:37.933 --> 01:18:39.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And, in that sense, the problem is integrated, 01:18:39.600 --> 01:18:41.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% so the solutions have to be integrated. 01:18:41.400 --> 01:18:44.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What I didn't mention and I want to take the chance to do so 01:18:44.866 --> 01:18:49.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is that this guy here, my colleague, that guy is basically 01:18:49.200 --> 01:18:53.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% a political scientist who's an expert on agrarian laws 01:18:54.066 --> 01:18:56.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and political economy and incentives 01:18:56.400 --> 01:18:59.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and institutions and stuff like that. 01:18:59.233 --> 01:19:03.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And my other co-author here, Krithi, 01:19:03.900 --> 01:19:06.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% is conservation biologist. 01:19:06.133 --> 01:19:07.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And I'm whatever I am. 01:19:07.633 --> 01:19:11.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And we've learned an awful lot from each other 01:19:11.233 --> 01:19:12.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% chasing this problem, right. 01:19:13.000 --> 01:19:15.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And there's no way any of us could have done this alone. 01:19:16.066 --> 01:19:18.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's just no way we could have gotten the answers 01:19:18.466 --> 01:19:19.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to these questions. 01:19:19.900 --> 01:19:21.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And we've kind of changed our minds about things. 01:19:21.766 --> 01:19:24.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Krithi comes from a very, quite frankly, 01:19:24.733 --> 01:19:27.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% very famous conservation biology family, 01:19:27.100 --> 01:19:29.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% and her old man, Ullas Karanth, quite well known. 01:19:29.866 --> 01:19:31.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% He's terrific, great scientist. 01:19:31.733 --> 01:19:34.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Single-handedly saved most of the tigers in southern India. 01:19:34.433 --> 01:19:35.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% He just hates people. 01:19:36.033 --> 01:19:38.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I mean, until recently his position has been 01:19:38.366 --> 01:19:39.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% whatever about coffee plantations. 01:19:39.833 --> 01:19:42.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We need to build more wildlife parks, right. 01:19:42.166 --> 01:19:43.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And I see his point, right. 01:19:43.666 --> 01:19:46.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But in working on this project in and around him, 01:19:46.333 --> 01:19:47.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% he's become much softer on this question. 01:19:47.966 --> 01:19:52.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% He's like, all right, we need parks and some coffee. 01:19:52.566 --> 01:19:54.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And this is a big change. 01:19:54.433 --> 01:19:57.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So integration is also about 01:19:57.566 --> 01:19:59.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% the property of emergence. 01:19:59.600 --> 01:20:01.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That things come out of the relationship 01:20:01.100 --> 01:20:04.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that didn't exist before, you know? 01:20:04.266 --> 01:20:07.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And so, I've changed my thinking about a lot of stuff 01:20:07.700 --> 01:20:10.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% by just being in this community of scholars, 01:20:10.966 --> 01:20:12.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% 'cause the problem is too complicated 01:20:12.466 --> 01:20:17.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% for my very narrow training. 01:20:17.533 --> 01:20:20.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Yeah, so that's the cool thing about sustainability, right? 01:20:20.666 --> 01:20:22.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Now I like sustainability. 01:20:22.133 --> 01:20:24.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] We hope our own thinking will also change 01:20:24.633 --> 01:20:26.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% and help all of us. 01:20:26.633 --> 01:20:27.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% - [Paul] Thanks for having me. 01:20:28.066 --> 01:20:29.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% - [Shakhashiri] Thank you very much, Paul. 01:20:30.033 --> 01:20:33.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% (audience applause)