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- Welcome everyone to 
Wednesday Nite @ the Lab.

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I'm Tom Zinnen.

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I work with the UW-Madison 
Biotechnology Center.

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I also work for the Division 
of Extension Wisconsin 4-H.

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And on behalf of those folks 
and our other co-organizers,

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PBS Wisconsin, the Wisconsin 
Alumni Association,

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and the UW-Madison 
Science Alliance,

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thanks again for coming 
to Wednesday Nite @ the Lab.

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We do this every Wednesday 
night, 50 times a year.

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Tonight, it's my pleasure to 
introduce to you Adam Bechle.

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He's an engineer with the 
Wisconsin Sea Grant.

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He was born in Green Bay, 
Wisconsin,

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and went to Green Bay 
Preble High School.

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Then, he came here to UW-Madison

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to study civil and environmental 
engineering as an undergrad

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and stayed on to get 
his master's and PhD,

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also in civil and 
environmental engineering here.

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And then in 2016, he joined 
the Wisconsin Sea Grant

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as a post-doc, and then in 2019,

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became a permanent member 
of the staff there.

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Tonight, he's gonna talk with us

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about adapting to a 
changing Great Lakes coast.

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Would you please join me 
in welcoming Adam Bechle

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to Wednesday Nite @ the Lab?

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- Thank you, Tom, 
for that introduction,

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and thank you Wednesday Nite 
@ the Lab for inviting me

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to speak about this 
important issue

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facing our Great Lakes coasts.

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Fluctuations in Great Lakes 
water levels

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are very challenging for our 
coastal communities

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and coastal residents,

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particularly when 
we see extremes,

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Extremes like extreme 
low water levels

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that were seen in record lows 
in 2013 on Lake Michigan

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and extreme highs that have 
been seen on Lake Michigan

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and Lake Superior 
in 2019 and 2020.

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But before I get into talking

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about adapting to those 
changing coastlines,

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I'd like to give a little 
bit of a background

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on Wisconsin Sea Grant

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and why Wisconsin has something 
called the Sea Grant program.

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So Sea Grant is a federal 
university partnership

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between the National Oceanic 
and Atmospheric Administration

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and university partners 
around the nation.

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In total, there's 34 
Sea Grant programs

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on all of our oceanic states 
and Great Lake states,

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as well as Puerto Rico and Guam.

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Wisconsin's Sea Grant 
is based at UW-Madison,

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with satellite offices 
at the UW campuses

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in Superior, Green Bay, 
Manitowoc, and Milwaukee.

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Wisconsin Sea Grant focuses 
on research, education,

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and outreach for the sustainable 
use of Great Lakes coasts.

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And so we fund basic research

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on a number of 
Great Lakes issues,

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and as well have 
outreach specialists

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and communication 
specialists like myself

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who talk about issues like 
Great Lakes water levels,

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coastal engineering, 
fisheries, aquaculture,

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water quality, social science, 
tourism,

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and a number of other issues 
in the Great Lakes.

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So why do we have a Sea Grant 
program in Wisconsin?

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Well, one thing I like 
to point to

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is the length of the 
coast that we have

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in the United States.

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The Great Lakes has 
4,530 miles of coastline

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along the United States.

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That's more than 
the Atlantic coast

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and the Gulf coast combined.

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Not quite as much 
as the Pacific coast

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when you factor in 
Alaska and Hawaii,

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but still quite a substantial 
amount of coastline

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in the Great Lakes.

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Wisconsin itself has over 
800 miles of shoreline

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between Lake Michigan 
and Lake Superior,

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and the Great Lakes 
are extremely important

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to the state of Wisconsin.

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It's where we live.

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Some of Wisconsin 
lives near coastline.

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There are $6 billion 
of improved property

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within a quarter mile of the 
Great Lakes coasts.

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Great Lakes are also a great 
economic driver for the state.

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The Great Lakes ports 
in Wisconsin

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generate over $1.5 billion 
of revenue annually.

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And the Great Lakes are 
a place that we recreate.

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There's over 200 coastal beaches

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along Wisconsin's 
Great Lakes shoreline,

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and those coastal beaches 
are not only important

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for our recreation,

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but they also drive tourism 
to those communities

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that depend on them.

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And so we have a really 
valuable resource in Wisconsin

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in our Great Lakes coasts.

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How did we get them?

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Well, the coasts and the 
Great Lakes in general

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are intertwined with 
our glacial history.

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Over 2 million years ago,

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the Laurentian Ice Sheet 
descended

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into the Great Lakes region 
from the north

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and over time, advanced and 
retreated numerous times.

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And as it did that,

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it started to carve out 
the Great Lakes Basins.

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The Great Lakes Basins 
mostly were old river beds

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with softer sediments,

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and really carved out the 
basins that we see today.

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The last glacial 
advance in Wisconsin,

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in the Great Lakes in general,

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was the Wisconsin glaciation 
about 25,000 years ago.

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Then the glaciers started 
to retreat for good

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out of the Great Lakes,

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and we were left with the 
landforms we see today.

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Now, when the Great 
Lakes retreated,

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we didn't see exactly the 
configuration of Great Lakes

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that we have today.

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The drainage patterns and 
water levels of the Great Lakes

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changed over that following 
thousands of years.

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As water changed course 
throughout the Great Lakes,

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the land surface in the 
Great Lakes area rebounded

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from having the heavy weight 
of the glaciers on top of it.

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The northern part of the Great 
Lakes are rebounding faster

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than the southern part, so 
we're having a tilting effect

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because the northern parts 
were under thicker ice

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and for longer periods of time.

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And so all those changes, 
the tilting land surface,

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the water flowing out 
through channels and rivers,

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have changed the drainage 
outlets over time

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until about 4,000 years ago,

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when we ended up 
with approximately

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our current configuration 
of the Great Lakes.

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So what were we left with?

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Well, we have five Great Lakes.

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We have Lake Superior, 
Lake Michigan,

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Lake Huron, Lake Erie, 
and Lake Ontario.

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And the Great Lakes 
are all connected

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through a series of 
connecting channels

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flowing all the way 
from Lake Superior

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out to the Atlantic Ocean.

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So Lake Superior sits about 
600 feet above sea level,

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flows out the St. Marys River,

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and through a series of dams 
and power plants up there

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through the St. Marys River 
out into Lake Huron.

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Now, Lake Huron is 
connected to Lake Michigan

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through the Straits of Mackinac, 
and this connection is so wide

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that the water levels of 
Lake Michigan and Lake Huron

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are pretty much the same.

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In fact, we call it 
Lake Michigan-Huron,

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and we treat it 
as one large lake

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when we're talking 
about water levels.

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Out of Lake Michigan-Huron,

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the water flows through the 
St. Clair River

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into a small lake called 
Lake St. Clair near Detroit

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and out the Detroit River 
into Lake Erie.

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Now, there's no dam or human 
control structure on that flow,

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but that river is 
dredged periodically

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to allow navigation,

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and so that does 
change how much flow

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does go through that river

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when that dredging 
operation does occur.

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And then Lake Erie outlets 
over the Niagara Falls,

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drops over 300 feet 
into Lake Ontario,

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of course, through a river,

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and then Lake Ontario sits 
about 243 feet above sea level.

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Lake Ontario outlets through 
the St. Lawrence River

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through a series of dams and 
out to the Atlantic Ocean.

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And so this is a large, 
interconnected system of water

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and those water levels 
in the lakes

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change over periods 
of years and seasons

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and months and even days.

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And so our period of record 
of water levels

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in the Great Lakes extends back

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from about 1918 to 
the present day.

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And in that water level record, 
we see highs, lows,

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periods where water levels are 
above the long-term average,

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periods where water levels are 
below the long-term average.

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And these variations are 
on the order of feet.

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Recently, in the late 2010s, 
all the five Great Lakes

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have been above their 
long-term average,

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and each Great Lake has broken 
some form of water level record.

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Water levels, in their 
extremes, especially,

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can really change our coastline.

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When we have low water levels,

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things like navigation 
shipping are stressed

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because water depths can be 
insufficient to pass large ships

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or even recreational craft, 
and things like water intakes

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for our drinking water 
treatment plants

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sometimes can be stressed

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not having enough water depth 
to function properly.

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At high water levels, 
especially at the extremes,

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we have a higher probability 
for flooding along our coasts,

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as well as erosion 
of our coasts.

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So today, I want to 
talk a little bit

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about what is going on with 
Great Lakes water levels,

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what drives them up 
and drives them down,

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how is that changing the coast,

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and then what are some 
strategies that are being used

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to adapt to this change?

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So first, what is a water level

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or a lake level 
in the Great Lakes?

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When you hear about it 
in the news,

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or hear about it in maybe 
a scientific publication,

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really we're talking 
about an average

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over a daily, monthly, 
or annual period.

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And typically, monthly average 
is what's used

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to describe the lake levels.

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That's because we can 
see water level changes

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on a scale of time scales.

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We see inter-annual variations 
where water level goes up

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and down over a period of years.

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We also see seasonal changes 
in water levels,

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where we have, typically 
on an average year,

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our highest water levels 
in the summer

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and our lowest water levels 
in the winter.

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We also have changes out there 
on the lakes all the time.

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Wind waves, which if 
you went to go look

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at the lake right now,

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you'd see that rippling 
and maybe white-capping.

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That changes on the 
order of seconds.

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And then when we have 
large coastal storms,

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big winds blowing in, we get 
storm surges, seiches,

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those change water levels on 
the order of minutes to hours,

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and sometimes even up to days.

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But in general, when we 
talk about lake levels,

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we're talking about that 
monthly average.

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That can kind of remove some of 
those short-term fluctuations

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and really help us focus on 
how much water is in the lake.

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So let's take a little bit 
more detailed look

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at the water levels 
in Lake Michigan-Huron.

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So again, we have 
a period of record

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of just over a hundred years.

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Lake Michigan-Huron has 
experienced a record high

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in October of 1986, 
a record low in January of 2013,

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and the range between those two 
is about 6.4 feet.

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Now, within the 
water level record,

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we see a seasonal fluctuation.

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Again, kind of peaking 
out in the summer

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and being lowest in the winter.

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And on average, 
that's about one foot.

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Some years may be more, 
some years may be less,

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but the average variation 
seasonally is one foot.

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As I said before, 
we have periods of high

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and periods of low.

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We've seen rapid changes 
in water levels

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on Lake Michigan-Huron.

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In the '50s, we had a 
rise of over three feet

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in just a year and a half,

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and then in the '80s, we 
saw a drop of over four feet

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in just over two 
and a half years.

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00:11:14,133 --> 00:11:18,400
So we can experience pretty 
quick changes in water levels.

248
00:11:18,500 --> 00:11:20,266
We can also see 
prolonged periods

249
00:11:20,366 --> 00:11:22,166
of high and low water levels,

250
00:11:22,266 --> 00:11:24,200
like the 1970s, where 
we had eight years

251
00:11:24,300 --> 00:11:26,633
of prolonged high water levels

252
00:11:26,733 --> 00:11:29,166
or the early 2000s, 
where we had 15 years

253
00:11:29,266 --> 00:11:31,866
of prolonged low water levels.

254
00:11:31,966 --> 00:11:35,200
It's a bit similar story when 
we look at Lake Superior.

255
00:11:35,300 --> 00:11:38,300
Lake Superior has a 
slightly smaller range

256
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:42,466
between its record high, which 
was set in October of 1985,

257
00:11:42,566 --> 00:11:45,600
and its record low, 
which was from 1926.

258
00:11:45,700 --> 00:11:48,733
That range is about 3.9 feet,

259
00:11:48,833 --> 00:11:52,633
but we also experience 
rapid changes,

260
00:11:52,733 --> 00:11:54,933
rapid increases, 
rapid decreases,

261
00:11:55,033 --> 00:11:58,133
periods of high and 
prolonged periods of low.

262
00:11:58,233 --> 00:12:00,233
So this is something we 
definitely need to expect

263
00:12:00,333 --> 00:12:02,933
when we live on the 
Great Lakes coast,

264
00:12:03,033 --> 00:12:05,733
is that high water levels 
and low water levels,

265
00:12:05,833 --> 00:12:08,900
based on history, will 
always be coming back.

266
00:12:09,900 --> 00:12:13,200
So what drives the Great Lakes 
water levels up and down?

267
00:12:13,300 --> 00:12:15,466
Well, it's helpful to think 
of the Great Lakes

268
00:12:15,566 --> 00:12:17,800
kind of as a budget,

269
00:12:17,900 --> 00:12:20,300
thinking of water going 
in and out of the budget.

270
00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,033
And one of the big 
drivers is rainfall,

271
00:12:23,133 --> 00:12:26,366
precipitation falling 
directly on the lakes.

272
00:12:26,466 --> 00:12:30,300
That is quite a substantial 
amount of water.

273
00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,433
We also have rainfall that 
falls on the surrounding lands

274
00:12:33,533 --> 00:12:35,400
and runoff into the lakes.

275
00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,666
The lakes are also very big 
surfaces of water,

276
00:12:39,766 --> 00:12:42,066
and so we get quite 
a bit of evaporation

277
00:12:42,166 --> 00:12:43,866
directly off the 
surface of the lake

278
00:12:43,966 --> 00:12:45,766
and back into the atmosphere.

279
00:12:45,866 --> 00:12:48,266
Those three terms, 
precipitation, runoff,

280
00:12:48,366 --> 00:12:51,133
and evaporation, when lumped 
together and added up,

281
00:12:51,233 --> 00:12:53,133
are called the net basin supply,

282
00:12:53,233 --> 00:12:57,066
the supply of water into 
and out of the lakes.

283
00:12:58,633 --> 00:13:01,100
So precipitation and 
runoff add water,

284
00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,266
evaporation takes it away.

285
00:13:03,366 --> 00:13:06,833
So if precipitation and 
runoff exceed evaporation,

286
00:13:06,933 --> 00:13:09,600
then the Great Lakes 
in general will rise.

287
00:13:09,700 --> 00:13:12,366
If precipitation and runoff 
are lower than evaporation,

288
00:13:12,466 --> 00:13:15,200
we have more water leaving 
the basin than entering,

289
00:13:15,300 --> 00:13:19,900
then generally the 
water levels will lower.

290
00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,100
Now, there's other components 
to the water budget.

291
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,400
We have, as I mentioned, 
connecting channels

292
00:13:25,500 --> 00:13:27,000
connecting the Great Lakes.

293
00:13:27,100 --> 00:13:29,533
So in the instance of 
Lake Michigan-Huron,

294
00:13:29,633 --> 00:13:31,666
flow comes in from the 
St. Marys River

295
00:13:31,766 --> 00:13:33,300
out of Lake Superior,

296
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,900
and out through St. Clair River 
out on its way to Lake Erie.

297
00:13:38,900 --> 00:13:42,033
We also, in some cases, 
have man-made diversions

298
00:13:42,133 --> 00:13:44,066
into and out of the lake system.

299
00:13:44,166 --> 00:13:47,966
So Lake Michigan-Huron has 
the Chicago River diversion.

300
00:13:48,066 --> 00:13:51,966
So around 1900, 
the Chicago River,

301
00:13:52,066 --> 00:13:54,566
which once flowed 
into Lake Michigan,

302
00:13:54,666 --> 00:13:57,900
was reversed with the Chicago 
Sanitary and Ship Canal

303
00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,900
to flow out of Lake 
Michigan-Huron.

304
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,366
That is a diversion of water,

305
00:14:02,466 --> 00:14:04,433
diversion from the 
natural pattern.

306
00:14:04,533 --> 00:14:06,133
So it's interesting 
to kind of consider

307
00:14:06,233 --> 00:14:08,300
how much water is 
actually being diverted

308
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:10,166
through that specific diversion.

309
00:14:11,166 --> 00:14:14,266
So the Supreme Court 
decreed in the 1960s

310
00:14:14,366 --> 00:14:17,433
the flow of the Chicago River 
flowing out,

311
00:14:17,533 --> 00:14:21,833
and that is 3,200 cubic feet 
of water per second.

312
00:14:21,933 --> 00:14:24,066
Now, if we take that 
over the course of a year,

313
00:14:24,166 --> 00:14:27,833
that adds up to 750 billion 
gallons of water.

314
00:14:27,933 --> 00:14:30,566
Which sounds like a lot, 
and it is a lot of water,

315
00:14:30,666 --> 00:14:34,266
but when average that amount 
of water over the surface area

316
00:14:34,366 --> 00:14:38,033
of Lake Michigan-Huron, 
which is 45,000 square miles,

317
00:14:38,133 --> 00:14:41,400
that amounts to just 
under an inch of water

318
00:14:41,500 --> 00:14:43,300
out of Lake Michigan-Huron

319
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,666
going out through 
the Chicago River.

320
00:14:45,766 --> 00:14:49,366
Definitely not negligible, 
but certainly small

321
00:14:49,466 --> 00:14:51,233
compared to what 
Mother Nature can do

322
00:14:51,333 --> 00:14:53,300
to water levels 
on the Great Lakes.

323
00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,366
There are other diversions 
into Lake Superior

324
00:14:57,466 --> 00:14:59,366
on a similar order of magnitude,

325
00:14:59,466 --> 00:15:01,566
and humans also 
have some control

326
00:15:01,666 --> 00:15:03,033
in some of the 
connecting channels

327
00:15:03,133 --> 00:15:07,500
where we do have locks and dams 
where flow is regulated,

328
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,566
but in general, Mother Nature 
is really what drives

329
00:15:10,666 --> 00:15:14,700
these many-feet rise and fall 
in water levels.

330
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,133
Humans do have some control,

331
00:15:16,233 --> 00:15:19,333
but that's more on the order 
of inches.

332
00:15:19,433 --> 00:15:22,400
So speaking of Mother Nature

333
00:15:22,500 --> 00:15:24,633
putting water into our 
Great Lakes,

334
00:15:24,733 --> 00:15:26,033
precipitation, as I mentioned,

335
00:15:26,133 --> 00:15:29,533
is one of the big components 
to the water budget.

336
00:15:29,633 --> 00:15:32,700
We have precipitation records 
dating back just before 1900

337
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,233
all the way to present day.

338
00:15:34,333 --> 00:15:36,533
Over this long period of time,

339
00:15:36,633 --> 00:15:38,833
the wettest five years 
in history

340
00:15:38,933 --> 00:15:42,166
occurred from 2015 to 2020.

341
00:15:42,266 --> 00:15:44,800
In fact, we set 
our all-time record

342
00:15:44,900 --> 00:15:49,666
for water precipitation in the 
Great Lakes Basin in 2017,

343
00:15:49,766 --> 00:15:52,533
and then almost broke 
that record in 2019,

344
00:15:52,633 --> 00:15:56,533
so the two wettest years in 
history in that five-year span.

345
00:15:56,633 --> 00:15:58,600
That's a big reason why, 
as I mentioned,

346
00:15:58,700 --> 00:16:01,033
we've had record-high 
water levels

347
00:16:01,133 --> 00:16:04,833
throughout the Great Lakes 
in 2019 and 2020.

348
00:16:05,833 --> 00:16:08,066
So taking a more detailed look 
at this road

349
00:16:08,166 --> 00:16:10,066
to record-high water levels,

350
00:16:10,166 --> 00:16:13,100
let's drill down 
in Lake Michigan-Huron

351
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:18,100
and kind of see how that 
lake went from January 2013,

352
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,100
new record-low water level,

353
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,233
all the way up to new 
monthly high records in 2020.

354
00:16:24,333 --> 00:16:27,700
So in the years preceding 
that record-low water level,

355
00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,866
there was quite high 
evaporation on the Great Lakes,

356
00:16:30,966 --> 00:16:34,233
which drove water levels 
down and kept them low.

357
00:16:34,333 --> 00:16:37,933
Then in 2013, we hit 
that all-time record low

358
00:16:38,033 --> 00:16:39,266
on Lake Michigan,

359
00:16:39,366 --> 00:16:40,700
followed up with a 
spring and summer

360
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:42,700
that had very high precipitation

361
00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,000
and therefore high runoff 
as well

362
00:16:45,100 --> 00:16:46,466
that raised the water levels,

363
00:16:46,566 --> 00:16:48,766
but they were still below 
our long-term average,

364
00:16:48,866 --> 00:16:50,033
shown in red here.

365
00:16:51,100 --> 00:16:53,400
Then we had a low 
evaporation winter.

366
00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:56,633
We didn't get much seasonal 
decline in water levels

367
00:16:56,733 --> 00:16:58,033
that we normally 
see in the winter,

368
00:16:58,133 --> 00:17:00,200
and that seasonal decline 
is usually driven

369
00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:03,100
by increased evaporation 
in the winter

370
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:04,900
and low precipitation 
in the winter.

371
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,833
Well, we didn't have a whole 
lot of evaporation that winter,

372
00:17:07,933 --> 00:17:10,066
so we didn't see much 
seasonal decline.

373
00:17:10,166 --> 00:17:13,166
Followed up with a wet spring 
and wet summer

374
00:17:13,266 --> 00:17:15,833
that drove water levels 
just about average,

375
00:17:15,933 --> 00:17:19,966
and then that again was followed 
by a winter of low evaporation,

376
00:17:20,066 --> 00:17:23,533
bringing water levels from those 
record lows in 2013

377
00:17:23,633 --> 00:17:26,133
up to around average.

378
00:17:26,233 --> 00:17:28,466
Things were a little calm 
for a few years, and then

379
00:17:28,566 --> 00:17:30,900
we had that record-setting 
precipitation year

380
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,866
in 2017 that drove water levels 
well above average.

381
00:17:35,966 --> 00:17:37,700
Followed it up in 2019

382
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,733
with a near-record level 
of precipitation,

383
00:17:40,833 --> 00:17:43,166
and then we stack those 
up with another winter

384
00:17:43,266 --> 00:17:46,966
of low evaporation that 
really set the table for 2020

385
00:17:47,066 --> 00:17:49,400
to break records on 
Lake Michigan-Huron,

386
00:17:49,500 --> 00:17:51,766
and we set new 
monthly record highs

387
00:17:51,866 --> 00:17:55,566
from January all the way 
to August in 2020.

388
00:17:55,666 --> 00:17:57,666
July of 2020 was 
just two inches off

389
00:17:57,766 --> 00:18:01,366
the all-time record-high water 
level in Lake Michigan-Huron.

390
00:18:01,466 --> 00:18:03,633
So really, an unprecedented rise

391
00:18:03,733 --> 00:18:07,066
from record-low 
water levels in 2013,

392
00:18:07,166 --> 00:18:11,166
almost setting our new record 
all-time high in July of 2020.

393
00:18:12,333 --> 00:18:14,666
Since, we've sort 
of topped out there.

394
00:18:14,766 --> 00:18:17,600
2021, at the time 
we're recording this,

395
00:18:17,700 --> 00:18:20,733
we've had a slight drought 
in the area,

396
00:18:20,833 --> 00:18:22,500
and that's had 
low precipitation,

397
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,533
not a whole lot of water 
entering the lakes.

398
00:18:24,633 --> 00:18:27,700
Gotten some relief from those 
record-high water levels.

399
00:18:28,700 --> 00:18:32,233
Sitting here, September of 2021, 
we're still well above average,

400
00:18:32,333 --> 00:18:35,433
but definitely not in 
that record territory.

401
00:18:35,533 --> 00:18:37,033
So where can you go to find out

402
00:18:37,133 --> 00:18:39,466
about Great Lakes 
water levels today?

403
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:42,333
The Army Corps of Engineers 
every month

404
00:18:42,433 --> 00:18:45,400
puts out a monthly bulletin 
of Great Lakes water levels.

405
00:18:45,500 --> 00:18:47,133
A web search for that term,

406
00:18:47,233 --> 00:18:49,366
Monthly Bulletin of 
Great Lakes Water Levels

407
00:18:49,466 --> 00:18:52,533
will bring it up, and 
with it is a graphic

408
00:18:52,633 --> 00:18:55,200
showing a two-year history 
of where we've been

409
00:18:55,300 --> 00:18:57,833
with water levels, as well 
as a six-month forecast

410
00:18:57,933 --> 00:19:00,766
of where water levels 
are predicted to go.

411
00:19:00,866 --> 00:19:03,533
So to orient you of 
this monthly bulletin,

412
00:19:03,633 --> 00:19:06,033
I've got here a Lake 
Michigan-Huron bulletin

413
00:19:06,133 --> 00:19:08,300
from September 2021.

414
00:19:09,300 --> 00:19:14,900
So across the top, we see time, 
we see years going back to 2019

415
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,300
and months going back two years.

416
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:21,766
On the vertical axis, we have 
the lake level elevation,

417
00:19:21,866 --> 00:19:23,500
and on the left-hand side 
is feet.

418
00:19:24,500 --> 00:19:26,133
The dashed blue line there

419
00:19:26,233 --> 00:19:28,300
is the long-term 
average water levels,

420
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,800
and you can see that 
seasonal cycle in there,

421
00:19:30,900 --> 00:19:34,833
peaking out in the summer and 
bottoming out in the winter.

422
00:19:34,933 --> 00:19:37,600
The red line here 
is where we've been.

423
00:19:37,700 --> 00:19:41,900
This is the recorded water 
levels over the last two years.

424
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,133
And then those little lines 
across the top

425
00:19:44,233 --> 00:19:47,200
with years on them, those 
are the monthly record highs,

426
00:19:47,300 --> 00:19:49,633
and then on the bottom 
are monthly record lows.

427
00:19:49,733 --> 00:19:51,233
And so you really 
get a full picture

428
00:19:51,333 --> 00:19:52,533
of where water levels have been

429
00:19:52,633 --> 00:19:57,000
and how that compares 
to our record levels.

430
00:19:57,100 --> 00:20:00,433
So we can see here, 
2020, as I mentioned,

431
00:20:00,533 --> 00:20:05,200
set new monthly record highs 
from January to August in 2020.

432
00:20:05,300 --> 00:20:07,666
And since then, we've kind 
of been steadily declining,

433
00:20:07,766 --> 00:20:09,833
as I mentioned, 
been in a drought.

434
00:20:11,166 --> 00:20:12,833
The supply of water 
coming into the lakes

435
00:20:12,933 --> 00:20:14,233
has been a little bit lower,

436
00:20:14,333 --> 00:20:17,533
bringing us to where we are 
right now, again,

437
00:20:17,633 --> 00:20:20,300
as we're recording 
in September of 2021,

438
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,233
kind of halfway between 
the long-term average

439
00:20:22,333 --> 00:20:23,966
and the monthly record high.

440
00:20:24,066 --> 00:20:25,966
The forecast for the 
next six month

441
00:20:26,066 --> 00:20:28,233
is shown in the 
dashed green line,

442
00:20:28,333 --> 00:20:31,066
and around it is kind 
of a cone of uncertainty

443
00:20:31,166 --> 00:20:33,366
of where those water 
levels might go.

444
00:20:33,466 --> 00:20:35,100
It's kind of like a 
hurricane forecast.

445
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,366
The further out you get, 
the less certain we are

446
00:20:37,466 --> 00:20:40,133
of where water levels will be, 
but looking forward,

447
00:20:40,233 --> 00:20:43,933
we're likely gonna be sticking 
in that above-average range,

448
00:20:44,033 --> 00:20:48,033
at least for the next six 
months on Lake Michigan-Huron.

449
00:20:49,033 --> 00:20:51,466
We can also look Lake Superior,

450
00:20:51,566 --> 00:20:53,666
this monthly water level 
bulletin.

451
00:20:53,766 --> 00:20:55,766
We can see where 
Lake Superior was,

452
00:20:55,866 --> 00:20:59,833
setting monthly records 
in 2019 and 2020.

453
00:20:59,933 --> 00:21:02,500
And actually as we sit now,

454
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,166
Lake Superior is right about its 
long-term average water level,

455
00:21:06,266 --> 00:21:09,066
and the six-month forecast 
has the lake

456
00:21:09,166 --> 00:21:12,700
sitting right in that 
area of long-term average.

457
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,966
Certainly this can change if 
we get a wetter fall or winter

458
00:21:16,066 --> 00:21:18,866
than expected or lower 
evaporation than expected,

459
00:21:18,966 --> 00:21:23,400
but this is the current forecast 
as far as it's provided.

460
00:21:23,500 --> 00:21:26,233
So you can go and do a 
web search for that any time

461
00:21:26,333 --> 00:21:28,733
and find the latest 
water level bulletin

462
00:21:28,833 --> 00:21:30,733
as well as the water level 
forecast.

463
00:21:32,300 --> 00:21:34,666
So what's gonna happen 
with water levels

464
00:21:34,766 --> 00:21:36,366
under a changing climate?

465
00:21:36,466 --> 00:21:38,300
Well, one thing we do know,

466
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,333
we know that we expect a 
warmer climate going forward,

467
00:21:41,433 --> 00:21:44,000
as well as a wetter climate 
going forward.

468
00:21:44,100 --> 00:21:45,166
So what does that mean

469
00:21:45,266 --> 00:21:46,700
to the Great Lakes 
water level budget?

470
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,866
Well, that suggests an 
increase in precipitation

471
00:21:49,966 --> 00:21:52,200
and an increase in runoff 
to the lakes,

472
00:21:52,300 --> 00:21:55,100
but that warmer weather 
will likely lead

473
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,266
to an increase in evaporation 
from the Great Lakes.

474
00:21:58,366 --> 00:22:01,433
So an increase in water 
coming in

475
00:22:01,533 --> 00:22:03,300
and an increase in water 
going out.

476
00:22:04,366 --> 00:22:07,700
So prior to about 2013,

477
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,033
the general consensus running 
through climate models

478
00:22:11,133 --> 00:22:13,766
and routing them through 
models of water levels

479
00:22:13,866 --> 00:22:17,533
in the Great Lakes was that 
evaporation was gonna win

480
00:22:17,633 --> 00:22:20,600
and that lake levels are 
going to trend lower.

481
00:22:20,700 --> 00:22:25,466
However, it was discovered that 
the treatment of how runoff

482
00:22:25,566 --> 00:22:27,933
from the land was making 
its way into the lakes

483
00:22:28,033 --> 00:22:30,733
in those models was 
under-predicting

484
00:22:30,833 --> 00:22:32,500
how much runoff was happening.

485
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,466
And so more recent studies,

486
00:22:34,566 --> 00:22:38,333
including one from Michael 
Notaro and collaborators

487
00:22:38,433 --> 00:22:41,900
at the UW-Madison have shown

488
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,633
that we don't have a 
clear trend anymore

489
00:22:44,733 --> 00:22:46,533
of where we expect 
water levels to go

490
00:22:46,633 --> 00:22:48,433
under a changing climate.

491
00:22:48,533 --> 00:22:51,933
Really, it depends on how much 
warming we anticipate

492
00:22:52,033 --> 00:22:53,266
or will actually get,

493
00:22:53,366 --> 00:22:55,200
and how much increase 
in precipitation we get,

494
00:22:55,300 --> 00:22:57,133
because those two signs 
are kind of fighting

495
00:22:57,233 --> 00:22:58,400
with each other.

496
00:22:58,500 --> 00:23:01,966
So depending on which 
climate model you use,

497
00:23:02,066 --> 00:23:04,800
they see slight decreases 
in water levels,

498
00:23:04,900 --> 00:23:07,366
slight increases in water level.

499
00:23:07,466 --> 00:23:10,233
So not a clear conclusion 
anymore,

500
00:23:10,333 --> 00:23:13,533
like we had prior where 
we thought water levels

501
00:23:13,633 --> 00:23:14,766
were gonna go lower.

502
00:23:14,866 --> 00:23:17,033
But one thing we do 
want to stress

503
00:23:17,133 --> 00:23:20,666
is that historical variability 
is likely to remain.

504
00:23:20,766 --> 00:23:23,033
We're still likely 
to see extreme highs,

505
00:23:23,133 --> 00:23:25,366
still likely to see 
extreme lows,

506
00:23:25,466 --> 00:23:29,433
possibly higher highs and lower 
lows than we've seen before.

507
00:23:29,533 --> 00:23:33,333
With more extreme precipitation, 
more extreme evaporation,

508
00:23:33,433 --> 00:23:37,700
we could be in for greater 
periods of those extremes

509
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,233
than we've seen before.

510
00:23:39,333 --> 00:23:42,633
So looking forward, it's 
really best to anticipate

511
00:23:43,866 --> 00:23:45,500
those extremes to continue.

512
00:23:46,900 --> 00:23:49,866
So I've covered a bit 
about what is going on

513
00:23:49,966 --> 00:23:51,333
with Great Lakes water levels,

514
00:23:51,433 --> 00:23:52,933
and now I wanna 
talk a bit about,

515
00:23:53,033 --> 00:23:55,466
so how are the coasts 
changing in response?

516
00:23:56,666 --> 00:23:58,233
As I mentioned before,

517
00:23:58,333 --> 00:24:01,300
when we have extreme 
low water levels,

518
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:05,300
that really puts stress on 
our navigation facilities.

519
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,066
In some cases, 
particularly when we had

520
00:24:08,166 --> 00:24:12,466
those record-low water levels 
in the early 2010s,

521
00:24:12,566 --> 00:24:16,200
there were marinas that 
had to dredge continually,

522
00:24:16,300 --> 00:24:18,200
boats were having a hard time 
getting in and out

523
00:24:18,300 --> 00:24:20,033
of the facilities,

524
00:24:20,133 --> 00:24:23,833
ships could not contain a 
full load and were losing money

525
00:24:23,933 --> 00:24:26,233
based on having to 
not be fully loaded

526
00:24:26,333 --> 00:24:29,666
just so that they had enough 
water depth to travel.

527
00:24:29,766 --> 00:24:32,833
Lots of dredging was going 
on in those low water levels,

528
00:24:32,933 --> 00:24:35,233
and of course, concerns 
about drinking water intakes,

529
00:24:35,333 --> 00:24:36,833
whether there was 
enough water depth

530
00:24:36,933 --> 00:24:38,633
for those to 
function as designed.

531
00:24:39,833 --> 00:24:43,666
With high water levels, 
the concerns become more

532
00:24:43,766 --> 00:24:47,433
with flooding and erosion 
and infrastructure damage

533
00:24:47,533 --> 00:24:49,566
from our high water levels.

534
00:24:49,666 --> 00:24:52,900
And so I wanna focus a bit 
on coastal flooding first,

535
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,066
and then I'll talk a 
little more about erosion.

536
00:24:55,166 --> 00:24:57,166
So coastal flooding 
doesn't happen

537
00:24:57,266 --> 00:24:59,566
just with high water levels.

538
00:24:59,666 --> 00:25:03,333
It's a combination of high 
water levels and coastal storms.

539
00:25:03,433 --> 00:25:06,133
So when a coastal storm blows in

540
00:25:06,233 --> 00:25:09,833
with strong winds blowing 
towards the shore,

541
00:25:09,933 --> 00:25:12,800
those strong winds can 
push up a storm surge,

542
00:25:12,900 --> 00:25:17,800
so piling up water against 
the lake, the shoreline.

543
00:25:17,900 --> 00:25:21,233
That moves in water 
on the Great Lakes

544
00:25:21,333 --> 00:25:25,200
that can be anywhere from a foot 
to several feet of storm surge.

545
00:25:25,300 --> 00:25:27,133
On top of that are waves.

546
00:25:28,133 --> 00:25:29,800
Those waves, when they 
hit the shoreline,

547
00:25:29,900 --> 00:25:33,466
waves typically will break when 
they get to shallower water

548
00:25:33,566 --> 00:25:37,266
and will run up the slope 
and cause additional water

549
00:25:37,366 --> 00:25:40,866
to get close to inundating, 
say a home,

550
00:25:40,966 --> 00:25:42,966
especially in low-lying areas.

551
00:25:43,066 --> 00:25:45,566
Now, at average water levels, 
a given storm

552
00:25:45,666 --> 00:25:48,166
may not cause flooding, 
may not bring the water

553
00:25:48,266 --> 00:25:50,000
up to a level of a home,

554
00:25:50,100 --> 00:25:52,466
but when we have 
high water levels,

555
00:25:52,566 --> 00:25:55,266
that storm has a head start 
at causing flooding.

556
00:25:55,366 --> 00:25:58,700
And so the same storm 
under average water levels

557
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,400
may not cause flooding, may 
cause quite a bit of inundation

558
00:26:02,500 --> 00:26:06,133
and flooding for a home and 
for a wide stretch of homes.

559
00:26:07,333 --> 00:26:09,700
One place where this 
happens in Wisconsin

560
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,966
is along the bay of Green Bay.

561
00:26:12,066 --> 00:26:15,533
The bay of Green Bay 
is long and shallow,

562
00:26:15,633 --> 00:26:16,900
oriented to the northeast,

563
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,600
so that when strong 
northeast winds come,

564
00:26:19,700 --> 00:26:23,233
quite large storm surges can 
pile up at the end of the bay

565
00:26:23,333 --> 00:26:26,466
and cause problematic flooding 
for the city of Green Bay,

566
00:26:26,566 --> 00:26:29,733
as well as some of the 
cities along the bay,

567
00:26:29,833 --> 00:26:32,700
particularly the western arm 
of Green Bay.

568
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,933
Places like Suamico, Oconto,

569
00:26:35,033 --> 00:26:36,666
they've all been 
dealing with flooding

570
00:26:36,766 --> 00:26:39,400
during this record-high 
water level period.

571
00:26:39,500 --> 00:26:42,566
I want to talk about two events 
in Green Bay in particular

572
00:26:42,666 --> 00:26:44,400
that were notable in this 
high water period,

573
00:26:44,500 --> 00:26:48,266
December 1st of 2019 
and April 28th of 2020.

574
00:26:48,366 --> 00:26:50,966
Those were some notable 
flooding events,

575
00:26:51,066 --> 00:26:54,333
but to put those in context, 
let's actually go back in time.

576
00:26:55,333 --> 00:26:58,100
April 8th, 1973,

577
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,533
the worst coastal flood 
recorded in Green Bay history.

578
00:27:02,633 --> 00:27:05,133
The headline from 
the Press-Gazette was

579
00:27:05,233 --> 00:27:08,133
"Floods Force 800 
From Their Homes."

580
00:27:08,233 --> 00:27:12,133
Large storm, northeast winds 
blew down the bay,

581
00:27:13,133 --> 00:27:17,200
brought in cold April icy water 
into those homes

582
00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:21,733
and flooded out a large area 
of low-lying land near the bay.

583
00:27:21,833 --> 00:27:25,300
So what was going on here with 
storm surge and water levels?

584
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,333
Well, those northeast winds 
kicked up

585
00:27:28,433 --> 00:27:31,700
about a 3.3-foot storm surge.

586
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,033
Pretty big.

587
00:27:33,133 --> 00:27:36,533
Water levels were above average, 
no record highs,

588
00:27:36,633 --> 00:27:38,866
but they were quite 
above average.

589
00:27:38,966 --> 00:27:41,600
That brought the water level 
in Green Bay

590
00:27:41,700 --> 00:27:46,600
up to about just over 
584 feet above sea level,

591
00:27:46,700 --> 00:27:49,233
and so that caused that 
widespread flooding.

592
00:27:49,333 --> 00:27:53,100
So that 584-foot mark 
I've marked here on the graph

593
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,100
and is an important number 
to keep in mind

594
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,433
when we're comparing 
to this event.

595
00:27:57,533 --> 00:27:59,600
Shortly after this 
devastating flood,

596
00:27:59,700 --> 00:28:01,533
the city of Green Bay 
constructed a dyke

597
00:28:01,633 --> 00:28:06,566
along its Green Bay coastline 
in hopes to not experience

598
00:28:06,666 --> 00:28:08,600
that sort of devastating 
flooding again.

599
00:28:08,700 --> 00:28:10,200
And it's functioned quite well,

600
00:28:10,300 --> 00:28:13,566
and there hasn't been 
that bad of flooding

601
00:28:13,666 --> 00:28:15,800
from a coastal flood since,

602
00:28:15,900 --> 00:28:18,033
but let's look at what 
has happened since then.

603
00:28:18,133 --> 00:28:21,500
Well, let's take us to 
December 3rd of 1990,

604
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,000
and this storm surge 
was the big one.

605
00:28:25,100 --> 00:28:28,566
The strong northeast winds 
coming down the bay

606
00:28:28,666 --> 00:28:32,633
kicked up a 5.4-foot 
storm surge.

607
00:28:32,733 --> 00:28:36,133
Compared to the 
next-highest storm surge

608
00:28:36,233 --> 00:28:38,666
in the historical record, 
which was four feet,

609
00:28:38,766 --> 00:28:40,266
this is a foot and a half higher

610
00:28:40,366 --> 00:28:43,000
than anything that's been 
recorded in modern history.

611
00:28:43,100 --> 00:28:44,566
This was the big one.

612
00:28:44,666 --> 00:28:46,000
When the Army Corps of Engineers

613
00:28:46,100 --> 00:28:49,000
analyzed coastal flooding 
in Green Bay,

614
00:28:49,100 --> 00:28:53,233
they estimated this was 
about a 1-in-300-year storm,

615
00:28:53,333 --> 00:28:56,733
or to put it in other terms, 
in an average year,

616
00:28:56,833 --> 00:28:58,666
there'd be a 1-in-300 chance

617
00:28:58,766 --> 00:29:01,466
of a storm surge like this 
occurring on Green Bay.

618
00:29:02,900 --> 00:29:05,966
The biggest one that we've 
seen in the historic record.

619
00:29:06,066 --> 00:29:08,933
Fortunately, Lake Michigan

620
00:29:09,033 --> 00:29:12,700
was at roughly average 
water levels here,

621
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,500
depicted on the graph 
by the red line.

622
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,733
So when you add those 
average water levels

623
00:29:17,833 --> 00:29:20,166
with this extreme storm surge,

624
00:29:20,266 --> 00:29:23,200
that brought the water level 
in the bay of Green Bay

625
00:29:23,300 --> 00:29:25,466
roughly to about 584 feet,

626
00:29:25,566 --> 00:29:29,133
similar territory 
to that 1973 flood.

627
00:29:29,233 --> 00:29:30,400
With the dyke in place,

628
00:29:30,500 --> 00:29:32,900
there wasn't that devastating, 
widespread flooding,

629
00:29:34,033 --> 00:29:36,633
but if water levels 
had been above average,

630
00:29:37,633 --> 00:29:39,833
things could have been worse.

631
00:29:39,933 --> 00:29:43,233
When we look at the timing of 
water levels and storm surge

632
00:29:43,333 --> 00:29:44,966
specifically in Green Bay,

633
00:29:45,066 --> 00:29:46,966
looking at the top 
five storm surges

634
00:29:47,066 --> 00:29:50,433
that have occurred in 
our modern history,

635
00:29:50,533 --> 00:29:52,000
the only one that 
really occurred

636
00:29:52,100 --> 00:29:56,033
at elevated water levels 
was that 1973 event.

637
00:29:56,133 --> 00:29:58,100
Otherwise, they've 
occurred at near-average

638
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,366
or below-average water levels,

639
00:30:00,466 --> 00:30:04,333
which brings us to 
our current period

640
00:30:04,433 --> 00:30:07,333
where we've had 
record-high water levels.

641
00:30:07,433 --> 00:30:11,400
So December 1st, 2019, 
strong northeast winds

642
00:30:11,500 --> 00:30:15,600
coming down the bay created 
a 2.4-foot storm surge

643
00:30:15,700 --> 00:30:18,366
on the bay of Green Bay 
and caused local flooding

644
00:30:18,466 --> 00:30:20,700
right along the bay there.

645
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,433
In terms of how large 
this storm surge was,

646
00:30:23,533 --> 00:30:28,133
this was about an 
average large storm

647
00:30:28,233 --> 00:30:29,933
that you would see 
in a given year.

648
00:30:31,266 --> 00:30:33,733
Obviously some years, 
there'll be bigger storms,

649
00:30:33,833 --> 00:30:36,066
some years may not 
see a storm this big,

650
00:30:36,166 --> 00:30:40,500
but roughly, this is about 
what you'd call a big storm

651
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:41,933
that you'd see in a year.

652
00:30:42,933 --> 00:30:47,500
Then in April of 2020, 
another storm surge,

653
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,033
a little bit larger, about 
2.6 feet, came down the bay.

654
00:30:51,133 --> 00:30:54,566
Again, strong northeast winds 
caused localized flooding

655
00:30:54,666 --> 00:30:58,266
around the bay area and a 
little bit into the city.

656
00:30:58,366 --> 00:31:01,333
Green Bay Metro Boat Launch 
was swamped.

657
00:31:01,433 --> 00:31:03,133
This storm was a 
little bit bigger.

658
00:31:03,233 --> 00:31:07,166
This is roughly a storm you'd 
see every two or three years.

659
00:31:07,266 --> 00:31:09,166
So not a remarkable storm.

660
00:31:09,266 --> 00:31:12,733
Certainly a big one, but nothing 
compared to that 1990 storm.

661
00:31:12,833 --> 00:31:16,266
But when you add it on top 
of record-high water levels,

662
00:31:16,366 --> 00:31:20,133
brought the bay up to just 
about that 584-foot mark,

663
00:31:20,233 --> 00:31:21,633
causing localized flooding.

664
00:31:21,733 --> 00:31:24,933
Again, that dyke's in place, 
so the widespread flooding

665
00:31:25,033 --> 00:31:29,166
that was seen in 1973 
didn't happen,

666
00:31:29,266 --> 00:31:32,366
but it just underscores 
how much coastal flooding

667
00:31:32,466 --> 00:31:34,966
is impacted by our Great 
Lakes water levels.

668
00:31:35,066 --> 00:31:37,666
So when we're at 
record-high water levels,

669
00:31:37,766 --> 00:31:41,233
it doesn't take a remarkable 
storm to cause issues,

670
00:31:41,333 --> 00:31:42,866
but when at average 
water levels,

671
00:31:42,966 --> 00:31:47,000
it took the largest storm surge 
ever recorded in Green Bay

672
00:31:47,100 --> 00:31:51,100
to get to that same level 
compared to high water levels.

673
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,333
So really, flooding 
is problematic,

674
00:31:54,433 --> 00:31:58,200
especially when we 
have high water levels,

675
00:31:58,300 --> 00:32:00,533
something we've seen 
in the last few years.

676
00:32:01,700 --> 00:32:03,033
Green Bay is definitely a spot

677
00:32:03,133 --> 00:32:04,666
where coastal flooding 
is concerning.

678
00:32:04,766 --> 00:32:06,733
It's low-lying, and 
it's like I said,

679
00:32:06,833 --> 00:32:08,866
the bay is long and shallow,

680
00:32:08,966 --> 00:32:12,233
which is really conducive 
to large storm surges.

681
00:32:12,333 --> 00:32:15,666
Most of Wisconsin 
Great Lakes shoreline

682
00:32:15,766 --> 00:32:17,066
is not that low-lying.

683
00:32:17,166 --> 00:32:20,166
In fact, a lot of it is 
up on coastal bluffs,

684
00:32:20,266 --> 00:32:24,066
10 feet high, 100 feet high, 
130 feet high,

685
00:32:24,166 --> 00:32:26,700
and not really subject to 
flooding from the coast,

686
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,000
but there are other issues 
that come with a coastal bluff,

687
00:32:30,100 --> 00:32:33,100
and that is erosion 
and bluff failure.

688
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:34,866
So what happens there?

689
00:32:34,966 --> 00:32:37,200
Well, much like with flooding,

690
00:32:37,300 --> 00:32:39,333
coastal storms 
come into the mix,

691
00:32:39,433 --> 00:32:41,033
creating storm surge and waves.

692
00:32:41,133 --> 00:32:44,533
And when those storm surge 
and waves reach up high enough

693
00:32:44,633 --> 00:32:48,700
that the waves can touch 
the bottom of the bluff

694
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,966
and start to impact it,

695
00:32:51,066 --> 00:32:53,333
those waves bring a 
lot of power and force

696
00:32:53,433 --> 00:32:55,833
and start to wear away 
sediments there.

697
00:32:55,933 --> 00:32:58,866
And so again, at 
average water levels,

698
00:32:58,966 --> 00:33:02,700
it's harder for those storms 
to reach the base of a bluff.

699
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,233
But when we have 
higher water levels,

700
00:33:06,233 --> 00:33:09,200
it's that much easier for the 
same coastal storm

701
00:33:09,300 --> 00:33:12,700
to bring waves up and impact 
the base of the bluff.

702
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,766
If the water level gets 
up and over the beach,

703
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:19,833
we don't have that 
benefit of the beach

704
00:33:19,933 --> 00:33:22,966
being able to have waves 
break over it nicely.

705
00:33:23,066 --> 00:33:24,866
Those waves can come in 
and strike the bluff

706
00:33:24,966 --> 00:33:27,700
at an even higher height 
in that case.

707
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:31,266
And so sediment is 
continuing to be worn away

708
00:33:31,366 --> 00:33:33,033
at the base of the bluff.

709
00:33:33,133 --> 00:33:35,433
It can steepen that toe up

710
00:33:35,533 --> 00:33:39,866
up to a point where the soils 
that comprise that bluff

711
00:33:39,966 --> 00:33:42,333
can no longer stand 
at a stable angle.

712
00:33:42,433 --> 00:33:45,600
Each soil has sort 
of a natural angle

713
00:33:45,700 --> 00:33:49,033
that it will remain stable at 
and not be at risk of collapse,

714
00:33:49,133 --> 00:33:51,966
and as you steepen up further 
and further from that angle,

715
00:33:52,066 --> 00:33:53,466
you increase the likelihood

716
00:33:53,566 --> 00:33:56,700
that there will be 
a slope collapse.

717
00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:00,066
And so as waves continue 
to remove material away

718
00:34:00,166 --> 00:34:01,366
and steepen that toe,

719
00:34:01,466 --> 00:34:03,833
that risk becomes 
greater and greater.

720
00:34:03,933 --> 00:34:07,033
Now, depending on the type of 
soil that a bluff is made of,

721
00:34:07,133 --> 00:34:10,233
it may fail in a number 
of different ways.

722
00:34:10,333 --> 00:34:13,666
Some places experience 
a deep-seated slumping,

723
00:34:13,766 --> 00:34:17,733
where the whole slope will kind 
of slide out into the lake.

724
00:34:17,833 --> 00:34:21,400
That's not the most common form 
of slope failure in Wisconsin,

725
00:34:21,500 --> 00:34:24,366
but it does happen 
in a number of places.

726
00:34:24,466 --> 00:34:29,366
More common is called sliding 
or translational sliding.

727
00:34:29,466 --> 00:34:32,800
That's where we see a series 
of smaller failures

728
00:34:32,900 --> 00:34:36,100
on that unstable, over-steepened 
part of this slope.

729
00:34:37,266 --> 00:34:39,100
So we'll see a smaller 
section of the slope

730
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,966
kinda collapse and fall off 
down to the base of the bluff,

731
00:34:43,066 --> 00:34:46,700
and that leaves a steeper 
portion up the bluff.

732
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,366
That steeper portion further 
up the bluff is now unstable

733
00:34:50,466 --> 00:34:53,166
and subject to 
potentially collapsing.

734
00:34:53,266 --> 00:34:55,533
This can be worsened if 
the high water levels

735
00:34:55,633 --> 00:34:56,933
and waves continue.

736
00:34:57,033 --> 00:34:59,600
They remove the material 
that had just eroded

737
00:34:59,700 --> 00:35:01,400
down at the bottom of the bluff,

738
00:35:01,500 --> 00:35:04,366
and then start to continue 
to work on that bluff

739
00:35:04,466 --> 00:35:06,266
and steepen up the slope.

740
00:35:06,366 --> 00:35:08,366
Eventually, the upper part 
of the bluff slope

741
00:35:08,466 --> 00:35:09,933
will collapse and slide,

742
00:35:10,033 --> 00:35:13,233
and this failure works its way 
up the slope of the bluff.

743
00:35:13,333 --> 00:35:15,333
Even if there was 
no more wave erosion

744
00:35:15,433 --> 00:35:17,933
once we've 
destabilized the bluff,

745
00:35:18,033 --> 00:35:19,433
that slope is gonna want to get

746
00:35:19,533 --> 00:35:23,066
to a more stable configuration, 
a more shallow angle.

747
00:35:23,166 --> 00:35:24,366
And how does it do that?

748
00:35:25,533 --> 00:35:27,933
Bluff failures and collapses.

749
00:35:28,033 --> 00:35:32,533
So that is how we eventually 
see recession of the coastline

750
00:35:32,633 --> 00:35:35,333
at the top and where our 
bluffs start to encroach

751
00:35:35,433 --> 00:35:38,666
upon things that we value 
like homes, businesses, parks,

752
00:35:38,766 --> 00:35:39,933
and things like that.

753
00:35:40,933 --> 00:35:43,866
A recent study out 
of the UW Geosciences

754
00:35:43,966 --> 00:35:48,033
and Wisconsin Geological 
and Natural History Survey

755
00:35:48,133 --> 00:35:51,566
by Russell Krueger, Luke Zoet, 
and Elmo Rawling

756
00:35:51,666 --> 00:35:55,833
looked at bluff evolution in 
response to high water levels

757
00:35:55,933 --> 00:35:59,733
using some real 
advanced methods,

758
00:35:59,833 --> 00:36:03,933
drone surveys, and 
slope stability modeling

759
00:36:04,033 --> 00:36:06,533
to really understand 
how fast these failures

760
00:36:06,633 --> 00:36:08,300
work their way up a bluff.

761
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,833
And they found that unstable 
services progress up the bluff

762
00:36:11,933 --> 00:36:15,066
at a rate of about 
4.4 meters per year,

763
00:36:15,166 --> 00:36:17,500
or roughly 15 feet per year.

764
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,300
So kind of to put 
that in context,

765
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,733
a low bluff, maybe 
10 or 15 feet high,

766
00:36:22,833 --> 00:36:25,700
can really experience 
failure in recession

767
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,733
at the top of the bluff 
almost immediately.

768
00:36:28,833 --> 00:36:32,433
Our higher bluffs in the state, 
over a hundred feet,

769
00:36:32,533 --> 00:36:34,433
now, we're talking on the order 
of a decade

770
00:36:34,533 --> 00:36:38,066
before erosion that occurs 
at the toe of the bluff

771
00:36:38,166 --> 00:36:40,633
works its way all the way 
to the top of the bluff.

772
00:36:40,733 --> 00:36:42,466
And we can kind of 
see that visually

773
00:36:42,566 --> 00:36:45,466
if we look at a couple 
different sites in Wisconsin.

774
00:36:45,566 --> 00:36:49,100
So first looking 
at a shorter bluff

775
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,666
from the Kenosha area in Somers.

776
00:36:51,766 --> 00:36:54,033
This is about 30 
to 40 feet tall.

777
00:36:55,466 --> 00:37:00,166
1970s to 2012, there wasn't a 
lot of change in this bluff.

778
00:37:00,266 --> 00:37:01,800
2012, as you'll recall,

779
00:37:01,900 --> 00:37:04,733
we were almost at 
record-low water levels.

780
00:37:04,833 --> 00:37:07,900
So not a whole lot of erosion 
happening at the toe.

781
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,366
Well, from 2012 to 2017,

782
00:37:10,466 --> 00:37:15,066
we had quite a rise in water 
levels on Lake Michigan,

783
00:37:15,166 --> 00:37:17,533
a lot of wave erosion 
reaching the toe,

784
00:37:17,633 --> 00:37:20,566
and that recession happened

785
00:37:20,666 --> 00:37:22,966
at the top of the bluff 
pretty readily.

786
00:37:23,066 --> 00:37:26,766
Just in that five-year window, 
went from having some distance

787
00:37:26,866 --> 00:37:29,033
between the edge of the bluff 
and the house

788
00:37:29,133 --> 00:37:32,300
to by 2017, the back porch 
of that house

789
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:33,866
falling in the lake.

790
00:37:33,966 --> 00:37:36,066
One more year down 
the road in 2018,

791
00:37:36,166 --> 00:37:38,733
the foundation is 
exposed of that house

792
00:37:38,833 --> 00:37:40,833
and unfortunately 
had to be removed,

793
00:37:41,833 --> 00:37:44,600
demolished by crane 
for safety reasons.

794
00:37:44,700 --> 00:37:47,433
But this house was lost 
to erosion in Wisconsin.

795
00:37:47,533 --> 00:37:50,266
A big impact of erosion here.

796
00:37:50,366 --> 00:37:53,766
If we look at a taller bluff, 
this is from Milwaukee County.

797
00:37:53,866 --> 00:37:58,033
We see in 2012, reasonably 
stable configuration.

798
00:37:58,133 --> 00:38:00,900
Lake levels are 
close to record lows.

799
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,633
By 2017, lake levels have risen,

800
00:38:03,733 --> 00:38:05,466
waves have impacted 
the toe of this bluff,

801
00:38:05,566 --> 00:38:09,033
and we see some erosion and 
failures working their way up,

802
00:38:09,133 --> 00:38:11,766
maybe a third of the way 
up the bluff.

803
00:38:11,866 --> 00:38:15,266
Much taller bluff here, using 
maybe some of those trees

804
00:38:15,366 --> 00:38:18,000
as a reference point as 
we move forward in time.

805
00:38:18,100 --> 00:38:20,900
By 2018, we lose some 
of those evergreens

806
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,466
on the bluff slope.

807
00:38:22,566 --> 00:38:26,366
2019, still, the failure's 
working its way up.

808
00:38:26,466 --> 00:38:28,366
And then by 2020,

809
00:38:28,466 --> 00:38:30,866
we don't see much vegetation 
on the bluff slope anymore.

810
00:38:30,966 --> 00:38:32,700
Those failures have 
worked their way

811
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:34,166
to the top of the bluff,

812
00:38:34,266 --> 00:38:36,866
but it took a lot longer 
than our low bluff example,

813
00:38:36,966 --> 00:38:39,866
so really demonstrating 
that failure process.

814
00:38:39,966 --> 00:38:44,800
So lower bluffs, typically 
we'll see those impacts quicker,

815
00:38:44,900 --> 00:38:47,466
definitely at the top 
where we have homes

816
00:38:47,566 --> 00:38:48,766
and things we care about.

817
00:38:48,866 --> 00:38:51,566
The taller bluffs, we'll 
see them eventually,

818
00:38:51,666 --> 00:38:53,000
but it may go a little unnoticed

819
00:38:53,100 --> 00:38:54,600
because it can be 
kinda hard to see

820
00:38:54,700 --> 00:38:56,600
what's going on 
down at the lake,

821
00:38:56,700 --> 00:38:59,000
but we know that failure is 
working its way up the bluff.

822
00:38:59,100 --> 00:39:02,000
So definitely something 
to be aware of,

823
00:39:02,100 --> 00:39:04,366
no matter what the 
coastal configuration.

824
00:39:05,533 --> 00:39:08,300
Water levels and waves 
are a big impact

825
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,666
on Great Lakes 
coastal bluff erosion,

826
00:39:10,766 --> 00:39:11,866
but they're not the only thing

827
00:39:11,966 --> 00:39:15,233
that affects Great 
Lakes coastal bluffs.

828
00:39:15,333 --> 00:39:16,633
One thing we need to think about

829
00:39:16,733 --> 00:39:18,933
is water coming from the 
land surface.

830
00:39:19,033 --> 00:39:21,666
So as water flows down

831
00:39:21,766 --> 00:39:24,233
from the top of the 
bluff to the base,

832
00:39:24,333 --> 00:39:26,900
that can erode soil particles

833
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:28,900
directly off the 
surface of the bluff.

834
00:39:30,133 --> 00:39:32,766
Groundwater in the bluff slope.

835
00:39:32,866 --> 00:39:35,200
When it comes out in the 
middle of the bluff,

836
00:39:35,300 --> 00:39:37,600
it's coming out at a 
high enough rate,

837
00:39:37,700 --> 00:39:41,233
it can cause sapping or erosion 
of the soil particles there.

838
00:39:42,233 --> 00:39:47,033
Also, groundwater in a 
slope reduces its stability.

839
00:39:47,133 --> 00:39:49,500
It's not as strong, 
and that stable angle

840
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,400
will have to be 
shallower or less steep.

841
00:39:52,500 --> 00:39:56,033
And so high groundwater 
conditions can also factor in

842
00:39:56,133 --> 00:39:59,266
to bluff failure 
and bluff erosion issues.

843
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,166
And so we really 
need to think about

844
00:40:02,266 --> 00:40:05,933
all these natural processes 
at a bluff site.

845
00:40:06,033 --> 00:40:09,466
Certainly lake levels and 
wave erosion a main driver,

846
00:40:09,566 --> 00:40:11,900
but we can't ignore 
other factors.

847
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:16,400
Now, as humans, we live on the 
coast and we make changes,

848
00:40:16,500 --> 00:40:18,700
and some of those aren't 
exactly the best thing

849
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,466
for bluff stability.

850
00:40:20,566 --> 00:40:22,866
One thing we do is we build.

851
00:40:22,966 --> 00:40:26,466
We add surfaces where water 
can no longer be absorbed.

852
00:40:26,566 --> 00:40:29,166
It runs off, and 
possibly causing

853
00:40:29,266 --> 00:40:32,033
increased surface 
water erosion problems.

854
00:40:32,133 --> 00:40:34,033
So we have to be 
mindful of where

855
00:40:34,133 --> 00:40:36,666
those impervious surfaces go.

856
00:40:36,766 --> 00:40:39,200
Vegetation on the bluff 
naturally occurs on a bluff.

857
00:40:39,300 --> 00:40:42,166
The roots of that vegetation, 
beneficial for a few reasons.

858
00:40:42,266 --> 00:40:46,366
One, the roots hold the soil, 
at least to some depth,

859
00:40:46,466 --> 00:40:48,900
let the roots go and add 
strength to the soil.

860
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,433
They also absorb 
water from the soil

861
00:40:51,533 --> 00:40:54,000
and put it up into 
the atmosphere,

862
00:40:54,100 --> 00:40:57,500
and so they help remove 
excess water from the bluff.

863
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,866
So if we come along and 
we remove that vegetation,

864
00:41:00,966 --> 00:41:04,166
we're decreasing that 
stability of the bluff.

865
00:41:04,266 --> 00:41:08,200
And then another thing we do 
is when we see toe erosion

866
00:41:08,300 --> 00:41:12,500
at the base of the bluff, 
oftentimes we try to stop it

867
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,366
to save the properties 
at the top.

868
00:41:14,466 --> 00:41:19,000
This can be done by adding 
erosion-resistant materials

869
00:41:19,100 --> 00:41:23,366
like concrete, oftentimes 
armor stone, rock,

870
00:41:23,466 --> 00:41:25,700
to sort of keep that wave energy

871
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,566
from being able to 
erode the bluff slope.

872
00:41:28,666 --> 00:41:31,066
However, this kind of 
fundamentally changes

873
00:41:31,166 --> 00:41:34,566
how those waves 
interact with the bluff,

874
00:41:34,666 --> 00:41:37,100
and instead of 
eroding sediment away

875
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,666
and sort of being 
absorbed maybe on a beach,

876
00:41:39,766 --> 00:41:42,033
they're striking a hard surface.

877
00:41:42,133 --> 00:41:43,933
And changing that 
near-shore dynamics

878
00:41:44,033 --> 00:41:47,300
can, in some cases, 
have negative impacts

879
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:48,733
at neighboring properties,

880
00:41:48,833 --> 00:41:51,666
sometimes increasing erosion 
around the structure.

881
00:41:51,766 --> 00:41:53,400
And so it's something 
to be aware of

882
00:41:53,500 --> 00:41:56,766
and definitely something that 
does happen in some cases.

883
00:41:58,533 --> 00:42:01,266
You can look at these 
changes yourself

884
00:42:01,366 --> 00:42:03,066
on a great tool that 
we have in Wisconsin

885
00:42:03,166 --> 00:42:05,133
called the Wisconsin 
Shoreline Inventory

886
00:42:05,233 --> 00:42:06,966
and Oblique Photo Viewer.

887
00:42:07,066 --> 00:42:09,933
You can either search 
that name online,

888
00:42:10,033 --> 00:42:16,400
or you can type in the web 
address, no.floods.org/wcmp.

889
00:42:16,500 --> 00:42:18,133
This is something 
that was put together

890
00:42:18,233 --> 00:42:21,433
by the Association of 
State Floodplain Managers,

891
00:42:21,533 --> 00:42:24,066
the Wisconsin Coastal 
Management Program,

892
00:42:24,166 --> 00:42:25,233
and Dave Mickelson,

893
00:42:25,333 --> 00:42:28,933
who is a professor emeritus 
at UW Geosciences,

894
00:42:29,033 --> 00:42:31,933
compiling historic aerial photos 
of the coast

895
00:42:32,033 --> 00:42:34,533
and putting them in a viewer 
for everyone to take a look at.

896
00:42:34,633 --> 00:42:37,400
So up there are 
photos from the 1970s,

897
00:42:37,500 --> 00:42:40,766
the 2007, 2008, 2012 photos

898
00:42:40,866 --> 00:42:43,233
that were acquired by the 
Army Corps of Engineers,

899
00:42:43,333 --> 00:42:45,066
and then since 2017,

900
00:42:45,166 --> 00:42:46,866
the Coastal Management 
Program has been working

901
00:42:46,966 --> 00:42:49,566
with the Wisconsin wing 
of the Civil Air Patrol

902
00:42:49,666 --> 00:42:51,966
to routinely acquire 
photographs of the coast.

903
00:42:52,066 --> 00:42:53,966
And these are extremely valuable

904
00:42:54,066 --> 00:42:56,800
in being able to track 
changes on the coast,

905
00:42:56,900 --> 00:42:59,533
see how certain bluffs 
and structures

906
00:42:59,633 --> 00:43:01,266
have responded over time,

907
00:43:01,366 --> 00:43:04,133
and really get a good picture 
of how things have changed.

908
00:43:04,233 --> 00:43:06,866
There's also data layers 
up there

909
00:43:06,966 --> 00:43:09,666
looking at assessing 
bluff stability.

910
00:43:09,766 --> 00:43:13,333
In some cases, we have erosion 
measurements up there as well,

911
00:43:13,433 --> 00:43:16,000
but really a great resource 
to help understand

912
00:43:16,100 --> 00:43:17,900
how specific areas 
have been responding

913
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,700
to changing water levels.

914
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,100
Again, that's the Wisconsin 
Shoreline Inventory

915
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:27,966
and Oblique Photo Viewer, 
no.floods.org/wcmp.

916
00:43:28,066 --> 00:43:29,700
A great resource to check out

917
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,366
when we're trying to 
explore the coast.

918
00:43:32,466 --> 00:43:34,766
So I covered how the 
coasts are changing

919
00:43:34,866 --> 00:43:37,533
with specific emphasis 
on how water levels

920
00:43:37,633 --> 00:43:39,700
are behind some of that change.

921
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,300
Now, I want to talk a little bit

922
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:42,666
about what strategies 
are being used

923
00:43:42,766 --> 00:43:44,533
to help adapt to these changes.

924
00:43:45,733 --> 00:43:48,533
So when I talk to 
folks in my job,

925
00:43:48,633 --> 00:43:51,600
talking to property owners, 
to municipalities,

926
00:43:51,700 --> 00:43:53,966
people who are 
dealing with erosion,

927
00:43:54,066 --> 00:43:56,300
I'd like to start with a 
top-down approach

928
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,600
to protecting 
coastal investments.

929
00:43:58,700 --> 00:44:00,966
And part of that is 
the top is where,

930
00:44:01,066 --> 00:44:02,700
typically, what 
we care about is.

931
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,100
That's where homes are, 
businesses are, infrastructure.

932
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,100
And so starting up at the top

933
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,700
and trying to see 
what is the problem,

934
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:14,566
how close is erosion or 
flooding to causing an issue,

935
00:44:14,666 --> 00:44:16,633
and work our way down 
towards the lake,

936
00:44:16,733 --> 00:44:19,633
because, as I'll talk 
about in a moment,

937
00:44:19,733 --> 00:44:21,766
fighting with Lake Michigan 
and Lake Superior

938
00:44:21,866 --> 00:44:23,466
is tough and it's 
very expensive,

939
00:44:23,566 --> 00:44:25,700
so if we can work our way 
from the top down

940
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:27,333
and see if we need to do that,

941
00:44:27,433 --> 00:44:30,000
that's usually the 
best course of action.

942
00:44:30,100 --> 00:44:32,266
So what can we do at 
the top of the bluff?

943
00:44:32,366 --> 00:44:36,200
Well, managing our land use, 
managing where water flows,

944
00:44:36,300 --> 00:44:39,400
and managing vegetation are all 
great things that we can do.

945
00:44:39,500 --> 00:44:43,700
In terms of managing land use 
before something's built

946
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:45,500
in siting things intelligently,

947
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,966
not having them too close 
to the edge of the bluff

948
00:44:49,066 --> 00:44:51,100
and trying to keep them 
out of nature's way.

949
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,233
As we've covered, 
erosion and flooding,

950
00:44:53,333 --> 00:44:55,666
these are natural processes 
on the Great Lakes.

951
00:44:55,766 --> 00:44:57,400
It's what the lakes want to do,

952
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:01,733
but it's problematic when we put 
things we care about in the way.

953
00:45:01,833 --> 00:45:02,933
And so if we can stay

954
00:45:03,033 --> 00:45:04,866
as far out of nature's 
way as possible,

955
00:45:04,966 --> 00:45:07,633
that can usually be the 
most effective solution.

956
00:45:07,733 --> 00:45:10,666
So in terms of doing this 
in a policy perspective,

957
00:45:10,766 --> 00:45:13,566
some of our counties and 
municipalities in Wisconsin

958
00:45:13,666 --> 00:45:16,533
have enacted building 
setback ordinances

959
00:45:16,633 --> 00:45:19,333
that try to keep new 
development out of harm's way.

960
00:45:20,333 --> 00:45:24,933
These will often include 
things like erosion rates

961
00:45:25,033 --> 00:45:28,233
over a certain amount of time 
for a life of a building.

962
00:45:28,333 --> 00:45:30,966
They range anywhere from 
30 years to 100 years,

963
00:45:31,066 --> 00:45:34,200
depending on how 
conservative you are.

964
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:40,333
And then slope setback, 
if a slope is going to fail

965
00:45:40,433 --> 00:45:41,966
to its natural 
stable slope angle,

966
00:45:42,066 --> 00:45:44,966
accounting for having that 
distance in that setback.

967
00:45:45,066 --> 00:45:48,733
And then oftentimes they 
include somewhat of a buffer

968
00:45:48,833 --> 00:45:51,233
to provide a little 
bit of breathing room

969
00:45:51,333 --> 00:45:52,500
in case erosion happens

970
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,533
at faster rates than 
they have in history.

971
00:45:55,633 --> 00:45:57,333
And so these can be 
really effective ways

972
00:45:57,433 --> 00:46:01,500
at keeping new development 
safer from the threat of erosion

973
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,533
and keeping them 
out of harm's way

974
00:46:03,633 --> 00:46:06,900
so we don't have to try 
and fight these problems

975
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,433
with Lake Michigan.

976
00:46:08,533 --> 00:46:09,666
For existing buildings,

977
00:46:09,766 --> 00:46:13,333
obviously they can't 
be sited initially

978
00:46:13,433 --> 00:46:16,133
further away from the coast, 
but relocating a building

979
00:46:17,133 --> 00:46:18,766
can be a pretty 
effective strategy

980
00:46:18,866 --> 00:46:20,900
at getting out of harm's way.

981
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,633
Requires you to have somewhere 
to move the building,

982
00:46:23,733 --> 00:46:26,633
but as this example shows 
from Sheboygan County,

983
00:46:26,733 --> 00:46:29,500
a home was pretty close 
to the edge of the bluff

984
00:46:30,500 --> 00:46:33,400
and a bluff failure 
precipitated the homeowner

985
00:46:33,500 --> 00:46:35,433
to really consider 
their options.

986
00:46:35,533 --> 00:46:38,266
And since they had 
a large enough lot,

987
00:46:38,366 --> 00:46:40,733
they were able to hire 
a house mover to pick up

988
00:46:40,833 --> 00:46:43,400
and move the house back 
sufficient distance away

989
00:46:43,500 --> 00:46:46,800
from that erosion threat, 
reconnect the utilities,

990
00:46:46,900 --> 00:46:49,033
put in a new septic system.

991
00:46:49,133 --> 00:46:50,800
All of that totaled up, 
of course,

992
00:46:50,900 --> 00:46:55,133
but it was probably cheaper 
than trying to stop the erosion

993
00:46:55,233 --> 00:46:56,900
and keep the house where it was.

994
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:58,066
Again, building relocation

995
00:46:58,166 --> 00:47:00,100
is not maybe necessarily 
always an option,

996
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,233
but it's something to 
keep in the toolbox

997
00:47:02,333 --> 00:47:04,933
when we're trying to 
adapt to changing coasts,

998
00:47:05,033 --> 00:47:07,000
staying out of nature's way.

999
00:47:07,100 --> 00:47:09,766
Other things we can do 
at the top of the bluff,

1000
00:47:09,866 --> 00:47:12,000
managing healthy vegetation.

1001
00:47:12,100 --> 00:47:14,233
As I mentioned, certainly 
not clear-cutting

1002
00:47:14,333 --> 00:47:16,000
the vegetation we have there,

1003
00:47:16,100 --> 00:47:18,700
but encouraging deep-rooted 
native vegetation

1004
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,900
for the benefits of holding 
the soil and removing water.

1005
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:26,400
Keeping a no-mow buffer 
near the edge of the bluff

1006
00:47:26,500 --> 00:47:28,433
will help those 
roots grow deeper

1007
00:47:28,533 --> 00:47:29,866
and help slow down any water

1008
00:47:29,966 --> 00:47:32,300
that wants to flow over 
the edge of the bluff.

1009
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,633
Views of the lake are high value

1010
00:47:34,733 --> 00:47:37,466
when we're at properties 
that are close to the coast.

1011
00:47:37,566 --> 00:47:41,733
So obviously, if we're 
covered with vegetation,

1012
00:47:41,833 --> 00:47:44,366
some of those views 
may be impeded on,

1013
00:47:44,466 --> 00:47:47,433
but really a good way 
to get those views back

1014
00:47:47,533 --> 00:47:50,966
is to frame views and have 
low-growing vegetation

1015
00:47:51,066 --> 00:47:52,466
over those sight lines.

1016
00:47:52,566 --> 00:47:55,100
If there's trees in the way, 
rather than cutting them down,

1017
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:56,666
exploring if they 
can be pruned up

1018
00:47:56,766 --> 00:47:58,933
to give you those 
viewing corridors,

1019
00:47:59,033 --> 00:48:01,900
trying to maintain as much 
healthy vegetation as possible

1020
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,266
and balancing that with the 
use of the site.

1021
00:48:05,266 --> 00:48:07,800
Management of water at 
the top is also important.

1022
00:48:07,900 --> 00:48:09,933
Knowing where 
drainage is flowing,

1023
00:48:10,033 --> 00:48:11,433
making sure gutters 
aren't pointed

1024
00:48:11,533 --> 00:48:14,833
directly over the edge of 
the bluff, things like that.

1025
00:48:14,933 --> 00:48:18,733
Rain barrels are a popular 
choice to really hold that water

1026
00:48:18,833 --> 00:48:20,966
and avoiding putting things 
like rain gardens

1027
00:48:21,066 --> 00:48:24,500
or tilled beds right near 
the edge of the bluff

1028
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:27,333
where water can go 
right into the bluff.

1029
00:48:27,433 --> 00:48:29,300
As we work our way 
down the slope,

1030
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:32,800
a lot of those principles 
still remain good practices.

1031
00:48:32,900 --> 00:48:35,466
Managing water, making sure 
it's slowed down

1032
00:48:35,566 --> 00:48:38,133
so it's not picking up speed 
as it goes down the bluff

1033
00:48:38,233 --> 00:48:40,533
and eroding the bluff surface.

1034
00:48:40,633 --> 00:48:44,300
One good way to do that and 
slow that down is to, again,

1035
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:46,200
ensure there's good, 
healthy vegetation

1036
00:48:46,300 --> 00:48:48,200
on the bluff surface 
as possible.

1037
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:53,000
Sometimes the bluff is 
too steep to be stable.

1038
00:48:53,100 --> 00:48:55,800
That steepness may be 
threatening a property.

1039
00:48:55,900 --> 00:48:58,033
If a house can't be moved,

1040
00:48:58,133 --> 00:49:02,000
reshaping an unstable slope 
is sometimes needed.

1041
00:49:02,100 --> 00:49:04,166
Oftentimes this is done 
by cutting back

1042
00:49:04,266 --> 00:49:07,200
the slope of the bluff 
to a shallower angle,

1043
00:49:07,300 --> 00:49:11,500
back to that stable angle of 
whatever the bluff material is.

1044
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:16,100
If space is an issue, retaining 
walls in building terraces

1045
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,333
can also be an effective option

1046
00:49:18,433 --> 00:49:21,433
to increase that 
slope stability.

1047
00:49:21,533 --> 00:49:25,600
In some cases, adding fill 
to get that stable slope

1048
00:49:25,700 --> 00:49:29,166
is possible, but that can 
oftentimes be expensive

1049
00:49:29,266 --> 00:49:30,633
and hard to get permitted

1050
00:49:30,733 --> 00:49:33,766
because then that fill would 
encroach upon the lake.

1051
00:49:35,233 --> 00:49:37,533
So things that 
would be considered

1052
00:49:37,633 --> 00:49:40,466
if bluff stability is 
really threatening a home.

1053
00:49:40,566 --> 00:49:43,633
Then as we work our way 
down to the shoreline

1054
00:49:43,733 --> 00:49:46,233
and these other options 
aren't a solution,

1055
00:49:46,333 --> 00:49:49,333
the home is still at threat, 
it can't be relocated,

1056
00:49:49,433 --> 00:49:52,566
then we start thinking about 
trying to slow toe erosion

1057
00:49:52,666 --> 00:49:54,933
if that's absolutely necessary.

1058
00:49:55,033 --> 00:49:56,800
And so the concept 
here is putting

1059
00:49:56,900 --> 00:50:00,533
erosion-resistant material 
or reducing the wave energy

1060
00:50:00,633 --> 00:50:03,000
reaching the toe to kind 
of stop that process

1061
00:50:03,100 --> 00:50:04,966
of erosion at the toe.

1062
00:50:05,066 --> 00:50:08,100
There are a number of ways this 
is done in the Great Lakes.

1063
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,333
By far the most common is 
what's called a rock revetment.

1064
00:50:11,433 --> 00:50:15,533
This is a sloping face 
of erosion-resistant,

1065
00:50:15,633 --> 00:50:18,066
most often rock, stone,

1066
00:50:19,266 --> 00:50:21,100
that will resist 
movement by waves

1067
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,500
and those are large rocks.

1068
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:25,133
And on the Great Lakes,

1069
00:50:25,233 --> 00:50:27,100
especially on the open coast 
of the Great Lakes,

1070
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:30,800
we're talking about ton rocks, 
multi-ton rocks,

1071
00:50:30,900 --> 00:50:33,166
to be able to resist 
the force of waves.

1072
00:50:33,266 --> 00:50:36,133
And under those large rocks 
are smaller stone,

1073
00:50:36,233 --> 00:50:38,500
so that when water gets 
in between the gaps

1074
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:39,733
in those large rocks,

1075
00:50:39,833 --> 00:50:42,100
it doesn't undermine the 
structure from underneath.

1076
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:46,900
Again, revetments, most 
common type of structure

1077
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,366
to reduce toe erosion.

1078
00:50:48,466 --> 00:50:51,066
Other ones that are used 
sometimes are a seawall,

1079
00:50:51,166 --> 00:50:52,966
which is a vertical structure,

1080
00:50:53,066 --> 00:50:55,966
either made out of 
steel or concrete,

1081
00:50:56,066 --> 00:50:58,933
functions somewhat 
similar to a revetment,

1082
00:50:59,033 --> 00:51:00,233
but when waves hit them,

1083
00:51:00,333 --> 00:51:01,933
they reflect a lot 
more wave energy

1084
00:51:02,033 --> 00:51:04,300
and can cause some more 
issues in the near shore.

1085
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,533
But again, the concept 
there is to directly resist

1086
00:51:07,633 --> 00:51:09,766
erosion from the lake.

1087
00:51:09,866 --> 00:51:12,366
Breakwaters are sometimes used

1088
00:51:12,466 --> 00:51:14,200
to reduce wave energy 
at the coast.

1089
00:51:14,300 --> 00:51:18,000
They're built out into the 
water and waves hit them,

1090
00:51:18,100 --> 00:51:20,933
either blocking the wave energy

1091
00:51:21,033 --> 00:51:23,300
or reducing the wave energy 
that the coast sees

1092
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:25,700
to reduce the erosive capacity.

1093
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,600
And then an emerging area 
in the Great Lakes

1094
00:51:28,700 --> 00:51:31,133
is something called 
nature-based shorelines.

1095
00:51:31,233 --> 00:51:34,800
This is trying to work 
with nature or mimic nature

1096
00:51:34,900 --> 00:51:36,666
to provide some 
protection of the coast.

1097
00:51:36,766 --> 00:51:39,700
Oftentimes it's a hybrid 
with some harder structures

1098
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:43,766
with rock or concrete, but in 
the example that I show here,

1099
00:51:43,866 --> 00:51:46,066
this is what's known 
as a marsh sill.

1100
00:51:46,166 --> 00:51:49,233
There's a little 
bit of rock sill,

1101
00:51:49,333 --> 00:51:52,233
kind of like a small 
breakwater out in the water.

1102
00:51:52,333 --> 00:51:54,800
The waves hit those and 
that reduces wave energy

1103
00:51:54,900 --> 00:51:56,000
a little bit.

1104
00:51:56,100 --> 00:51:58,066
We've got marsh 
vegetation growing.

1105
00:51:58,166 --> 00:52:01,700
As the waves hit those, reduces 
a little bit of wave energy.

1106
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,400
And then it's backstopped 
by some smaller rocks

1107
00:52:04,500 --> 00:52:06,933
for whatever wave energy 
reaches the shoreline

1108
00:52:07,033 --> 00:52:08,700
to stop erosion there.

1109
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:10,900
Nature-based shorelines have 
been much more developed

1110
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:13,033
on our nation's ocean coasts

1111
00:52:13,133 --> 00:52:15,300
and internationally 
on ocean coasts.

1112
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,033
The Great Lakes, we're 
still developing here.

1113
00:52:18,133 --> 00:52:20,933
We've got ice, we've 
got freshwater species

1114
00:52:21,033 --> 00:52:22,800
that don't work the same 
as our ocean coasts,

1115
00:52:22,900 --> 00:52:24,133
so it's definitely an area

1116
00:52:24,233 --> 00:52:25,966
that's growing 
in the Great Lakes

1117
00:52:26,066 --> 00:52:28,233
and something to keep an eye on,

1118
00:52:28,333 --> 00:52:32,366
whether or not this sort of 
solution is suitable at a site.

1119
00:52:32,466 --> 00:52:33,966
It has more habitat benefits

1120
00:52:34,066 --> 00:52:35,800
to aquatic and 
terrestrial habitats

1121
00:52:35,900 --> 00:52:38,466
than conventional 
armoring of the shoreline

1122
00:52:38,566 --> 00:52:39,900
with just rock.

1123
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,066
So it's definitely 
gaining a lot of interest.

1124
00:52:43,433 --> 00:52:46,533
Where can you learn more 
about these sorts of options?

1125
00:52:46,633 --> 00:52:48,333
Well, Wisconsin Sea Grant,

1126
00:52:48,433 --> 00:52:50,900
we've just published 
two new guides,

1127
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:54,500
one, "A Property Owner's Guide 
To Protecting Your Bluff,"

1128
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:57,100
going into more detail 
about a lot of the concepts

1129
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,633
I talked about, going from 
working your way from the top

1130
00:52:59,733 --> 00:53:02,700
down to the bottom, 
good practices to use,

1131
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:06,800
managing land use, 
vegetation, water,

1132
00:53:06,900 --> 00:53:08,033
and then slope stability,

1133
00:53:08,133 --> 00:53:10,900
and, if needed, 
shore protection.

1134
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,733
And then we've also put 
together a guide called

1135
00:53:13,833 --> 00:53:16,833
"Nature-Based Shoreline Options 
For Great Lakes Coasts."

1136
00:53:16,933 --> 00:53:18,000
As I mentioned,

1137
00:53:18,100 --> 00:53:19,800
this is a developing area 
in the Great Lakes,

1138
00:53:19,900 --> 00:53:24,300
and so we've put together 
some basic techniques

1139
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,500
that are being used 
now in the Great Lakes,

1140
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:27,800
as well as some case studies

1141
00:53:27,900 --> 00:53:30,000
of where they've been 
implemented in the Great Lakes

1142
00:53:30,100 --> 00:53:31,400
to help folks wrap 
their head around

1143
00:53:31,500 --> 00:53:32,833
what nature-based shorelines are

1144
00:53:32,933 --> 00:53:35,966
and kind of how they can 
be used in the Great Lakes.

1145
00:53:36,066 --> 00:53:40,466
We also have two guides called 
"Adapting to a Changing Coast."

1146
00:53:40,566 --> 00:53:42,900
These are a little 
higher-level views.

1147
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,666
One is written for Great Lakes 
coastal property owners,

1148
00:53:46,766 --> 00:53:49,166
covering some of the 
options they can use

1149
00:53:49,266 --> 00:53:50,766
to address flooding and erosion,

1150
00:53:50,866 --> 00:53:53,833
and one is more geared 
towards local officials

1151
00:53:53,933 --> 00:53:57,300
thinking about policy, 
funding options

1152
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:00,900
that might be helpful for 
adapting to a changing coast.

1153
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:04,533
All those can be found on the 
Wisconsin Sea Grant website,

1154
00:54:04,633 --> 00:54:06,833
seagrant.wisc.edu,

1155
00:54:06,933 --> 00:54:10,200
or a web search for 
Wisconsin Sea Grant.

1156
00:54:10,300 --> 00:54:13,066
It has lots of information 
about these issues,

1157
00:54:13,166 --> 00:54:16,566
as well as the whole 
profile that Sea Grant has:

1158
00:54:16,666 --> 00:54:20,200
fisheries, aquaculture, 
water quality, tourism.

1159
00:54:20,300 --> 00:54:21,700
Lot of great information 
out there,

1160
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:23,300
both from Wisconsin Sea Grant,

1161
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:25,500
as well as from 
many of our partners

1162
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:28,033
at the state and 
federal and local level.

1163
00:54:28,133 --> 00:54:30,033
One thing I'd like to 
point out on the website

1164
00:54:30,133 --> 00:54:33,200
that might be particularly 
useful to some of the viewers,

1165
00:54:34,566 --> 00:54:37,033
a website called "Resources 
for Property Owners."

1166
00:54:37,133 --> 00:54:40,566
This is where we've collected 
a number of useful resources

1167
00:54:40,666 --> 00:54:42,133
for Great Lakes 
coastal property owners

1168
00:54:42,233 --> 00:54:46,166
to help understand what's 
going on on the Great Lakes.

1169
00:54:46,266 --> 00:54:48,866
Waves, erosion, 
sediment transport,

1170
00:54:48,966 --> 00:54:52,300
how to assess vulnerability 
to some of these hazards,

1171
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:54,266
how to pick options 
going forward.

1172
00:54:54,366 --> 00:54:55,800
And then when it comes time,

1173
00:54:55,900 --> 00:54:59,066
if you need to work with 
an engineer, a contractor,

1174
00:54:59,166 --> 00:55:02,133
some resources to help 
understand that process

1175
00:55:02,233 --> 00:55:07,133
and a list of known contractors 
and engineers to start from

1176
00:55:07,233 --> 00:55:09,666
when trying to do 
that sort of work.

1177
00:55:09,766 --> 00:55:12,400
Again, seagrant.wisc.edu,

1178
00:55:12,500 --> 00:55:14,566
can find a lot of great 
information about water levels

1179
00:55:14,666 --> 00:55:15,833
and more there.

1180
00:55:16,833 --> 00:55:19,233
As I close out, I'd 
really like to acknowledge

1181
00:55:19,333 --> 00:55:20,833
that I don't do this work alone

1182
00:55:20,933 --> 00:55:22,933
and Sea Grant doesn't 
do their work alone.

1183
00:55:23,033 --> 00:55:26,066
We have strong partnerships 
at the state and federal,

1184
00:55:26,166 --> 00:55:28,666
university, regional, 
and local level.

1185
00:55:28,766 --> 00:55:31,466
Just to name a few, 
we work closely

1186
00:55:31,566 --> 00:55:33,833
with the Wisconsin Coastal 
Management Program,

1187
00:55:33,933 --> 00:55:37,433
Wisconsin Department of 
Natural Resources, NOAA,

1188
00:55:37,533 --> 00:55:39,333
the Army Corps of Engineers,

1189
00:55:39,433 --> 00:55:42,266
UW-Madison researchers, 
UW-Milwaukee researchers,

1190
00:55:42,366 --> 00:55:45,566
researchers at universities 
across the state.

1191
00:55:45,666 --> 00:55:47,666
The Southeast Wisconsin 
Regional Planning Commission,

1192
00:55:47,766 --> 00:55:49,733
Bay-Lake Regional 
Planning Commission,

1193
00:55:49,833 --> 00:55:51,900
Association of State 
Floodplain Managers,

1194
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,866
and a lot of local partners 
as well.

1195
00:55:54,966 --> 00:55:56,466
And so really we'd like 
to acknowledge

1196
00:55:56,566 --> 00:56:00,600
and thank them for their work 
with us on these issues.

1197
00:56:00,700 --> 00:56:03,700
I'd also like to acknowledge 
a lot of this information

1198
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:05,266
that was shared 
today was developed

1199
00:56:05,366 --> 00:56:08,533
under a NOAA Regional 
Coastal Resilience grant

1200
00:56:08,633 --> 00:56:10,033
that was funded by NOAA

1201
00:56:10,133 --> 00:56:11,900
through the Office of 
Coastal Management,

1202
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:13,866
helped make a lot 
of this information

1203
00:56:13,966 --> 00:56:16,466
and the guides 
I mentioned possible.

1204
00:56:16,566 --> 00:56:20,066
With that, I'd like to leave 
you with just a reminder

1205
00:56:20,166 --> 00:56:23,300
that the Great Lakes are 
really important to Wisconsin,

1206
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:28,100
both economically, as a sense 
of place, a place we recreate,

1207
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:31,466
and they face challenges, 
particularly when we have

1208
00:56:31,566 --> 00:56:33,600
extreme water levels, 
high and low.

1209
00:56:33,700 --> 00:56:36,700
And from history, 
we kind of anticipate

1210
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:39,666
we'll continue to face these 
challenges in the future.

1211
00:56:39,766 --> 00:56:41,433
They may be made worse 
by climate change,

1212
00:56:41,533 --> 00:56:43,666
but working to adapt to them

1213
00:56:43,766 --> 00:56:45,833
is in the best interest 
of everyone in Wisconsin,

1214
00:56:45,933 --> 00:56:50,400
because of how important that 
that resource is to our state.

1215
00:56:50,500 --> 00:56:53,133
With that, I'd like to again 
thank Wednesday Nite @ the Lab

1216
00:56:53,233 --> 00:56:55,566
for having me, and thank you 
for your attention

1217
00:56:55,666 --> 00:56:56,833
and have a great day.