>>> WELCOME BACK.
OFF THE RECORD STARTS RIGHT NOW.
>> ON THE PANEL THIS WEEK WE
HAVE SUE DEMAS AND BILL
BALLENGER ALONG WERE CHAD
LIVENGOOD.
HERE IS THE RUNDOWN.
A NEW PRESIDENTIAL POLL IN
MICHIGAN, AN UPDATE ON THE U.S.
SENATE RACE AND LATER ON,
BUSINESS LOBBYIST IS PITCHING A
TAX HIKE PLAN.
ALL THIS AND MORE COMING UP
RIGHT NOW, "OFF THE RECORD."
¶
¶
>> Tim: THANK YOU JOE.
WELCOME TO OUR PROGRAM.
POLLING DATA ON THE PRESIDENTIAL
RACE IN MICHIGAN.
LET'S TAKE A PEEK.
>> IN THE HEAD TO HEAD MATCH-UP.
IT'S 47% FOR OBAMA AND 42% FOR
MR. ROMNEY WITH A 4% MARGIN OF
ERROR.
HOWEVER, WITH THE IMPORTANT
FEMALE VOTERS IT'S MR. OBAMA
WITH A 7% LEAD AND LEAD WITH
INDEPENDENT VOTERS.
ACROSS THE STATE THE PRESIDENT
LEADS IN DETROIT, HAS NARROW
LEAD IN WEST MICHIGAN AND
LANSING HE ENJOYS A 47% TO 40%
SPREAD.
BUT POLTSD ALSO REVEAL THAT IN
OAKLAND COUNTY.
REPUBLICAN TERRITORY, MR. ROMNEY
IS LOSING BY 16 POINTS.
>> THE POLLS ARE TRYING TO DRIVE
THE DEBATE AND ELECTION.
>> SO YOU DON'T BELIEVE YOUR GUY
IS BEHIND IN OAKLAND COUNTY?
>> I HAVE NO IDEA UNTIL I LOOK
AT THE POLLS.
>> ROMNEY IS LOWER WHERE HE
SHOULD BE WITH WEST MICHIGAN BUT
INDEPENDENTS ARE UNDECIDED.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY.
>> MR. ROMNEY HAS A BIG DEAL
WHETHER YOU ARE BETTER OFF FOUR
YEARS AGO.
37% SAY THEY ARE BETTER OFF AND
40% SAY THEY ARE NOT.
IRONICALLY FOR REPUBLICANS
TAKING CREDIT MR. SNYDER TURNING
THE STATE'S ECONOMY AROUND BUT
THE PRESIDENT IS BENEFITING FROM
THAT.
>> OBAMA IS BENEFITING FROM THE
FACT THAT MICHIGAN ARE DOING A
LOT BETTER THAN THEY WERE TWO TO
FOUR YEARS AGO, THEY ARE GIVING
OBAMA ALMOST AS MUCH CREDIT AS
SNYDER FOR DOING THAT.
>> 49 DAYS AGO UNTIL THE POLL
THAT REALLY COUNTS.
>> Tim: IT SEEMS TO ME, THE
PROBLEM IN OAKLAND COUNTY FOR
MR. ROMNEY S IT HUGE?
>> I THINK IT IS.
WE HAVE A LOT OF SUBURBAN VOTERS
THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY.
2010 THEY WENT REPUBLICAN.
THIS YEAR WAS ALL OF THE WOMEN
AND REPUBLICANS TRYING TO GET
THEM BACK.
>> YOU HAVE SOME POLLING COMING
OUT.
ARE YOU COP SET I CAN WITH THE
NUMBERS HERE?
>> AND BIGGER MARGIN FOR OBAMA,
52-38 ROUGHLY.
>> Tim: IN THE HEAD TO HEAD?
>> IN THE HEAD TO HEAD CITY TO.
PRESIDENT IS GETTING A BIG SURGE
IN WOMEN VOTERS ON HIS SIDE AND
OAKLAND COUNTY IS GOING MORE IN
HIS COLUMN.
THE HOUSE DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE
IS REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS.
THEY THINK THAT SOUTHERN SUBURBS
AROUND DETROIT ARE WHERE THEY
CAN PICK UP SOME SEATS.
>> THERE IS A LOT OF POLLING OUT
THERE.
DEFINITELY HIS LEAD HAS GONE UP
SINCE THE DNC.
EPIC MRA HAS HIM UP BY TEN.
>> THIS RACE IS NOT OVER?
>> I DON'T THINK IT IS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
POLL.
DIDN'T THEY DO THE POLL -- THEY
MAY HAVE OVERSAMPLED DEMOCRATS
BY 14%.
THERE IS WHAT I'VE HEARD.
WELL, THAT IS WHAT I HAVE HEARD.
BUT IN ANY EVENT I THINK
PROBABLY THE POLL THAT YOU
REPORTED THERE IN THE VIDEO IS
MORE ACCURATE OF WHERE THE LAUGH
IS PROBABLY IS.
SUSAN IS RIGHT.
MITT ROMNEY CAN'T DO WELL IN HIS
OWN HOME STOMPING GROUNDS OF
OAKLAND COUNTY HE HAS REAL
PROBLEMS IN MICHIGAN.
AGAIN, WE'RE INUNDATED WITH
POLLS, THEY ARE GOING TO COULD
KEEP OPENING IN.
REMEMBER, JIMMY CARTER WAS AHEAD
OF RONALD REAGAN UNTIL THE
DEBATE AND THAT WAS IN OCTOBER.
THERE IS LONG WAY TO GO AND
THINGS CAN TURN AROUND BUT IT'S
BEEN A BAD WEEK.
>> WHAT ABOUT ROMNEY AND GALLUP
WHERE CARTER WAS AHEAD POLLING
REAGAN.
YOU WOULD NEED SOMETHING VERY
SIGNIFICANT.
ESPECIALLY IN MICHIGAN TO TURN
AROUND FOR ROMNEY.
IT'S TOTALLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE EUROPEAN
ECONOMY IS GOING TO DO.
THERE COULD BE AN INCIDENT IN
LIBYA.
WE HAVE NO IDEA.
IT DOES SEEM TO BE TROUBLING
SINCE THIS SUMMER AND TRAILING
IN OBAMA'S WAY.
>> IT'S 47%% DEMOCRATS, 40%
REPUBLICANS AND 16%
INDEPENDENTS.
>> IS EIGHT A PROBLEM OR NOT?
>> THERE ARE SO MANY POLLS OUT
THERE.
THERE COULD BE SOMEWHERE IT'S
ROUGHLY A DEBT HEAT.
THERE ARE NOT MANY OF THOSE BUT
THERE ARE SOME OBAMA IS AHEAD.
EVERYBODY AGREES OBAMA IS AHEAD.
THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH.
>> Tim: IF YOU ARE SITTING IN
THE ROMNEY CAMP, GUYS WE HAVE A
PROBLEM IN MICHIGAN.
WE PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A GOOD
SHOWING THERE.
WHAT DO WE DO?
>> THEY NEED TO GET OUT AND
CONNECT WITH VOTERS HERE.
>> Tim: WHAT ABOUT THE, QUOTE,
VICTORY CENTERS.
>> HE NEEDS A LOT MORE.
>> HE CAN WIN TECHNICALLY IF YOU
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS WITHOUT
WINNING MICHIGAN.
IT'S HARD TO SEE OBAMA BEING
ELECTED AS PRESIDENT IF HE
DOESN'T WIN MICHIGAN.
ROMNEY IS NOT GOING TO KIGS OFF
MICHIGAN.
I THINK HE IS GOING RUN IT LIKE
GEORGE BUSH IN 2004, HE IS GOING
TO REFUSE TO CONCEDE HE IS GOING
TO LOSE MICHIGAN AND MAKE OBAMA
WORK HERE.
THE OTHER NIGHT, WILL BE ON THE
GIBBS, FORMER PRESS SECRETARY
WAS HERE, I THINK WE HAVE TO
SPEND $10,000 IN MICHIGAN AND WE
CAN STILL WIN.
>> HE WAS WHISTLING FOR THE
GRAVEYARD.
[ LAUGHTER ]
>> SINCE THE PRIMARY, THEY SPENT
A GOOSE EGG WHICH IS BAD FOR THE
ECONOMY.
ROMNEY FOLKS HAVE KICKED IN.
WE APPRECIATE THAT.
>> YOU MENTIONED MIKE COX, ABOUT
THE FLAP OVER THE 47%.
IN ANOTHER WEEK NOBODY WILL
REMEMBER THE STORY AND MOVE ON
TO SOMETHING ELSE.
IS HE ON TO SOMETHING?
>> HE MAY BE.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS
SHOWING UP IN THE POLLS, VOTED
IS COMING OFF THE DEMOCRATIC
NATIONAL CONVENTION WHERE WE
HEARD A LOT ABOUT THE AUTO
INDUSTRY IN THAT CONVENTION.
THERE WAS SOME ISSUES IN THE
REPUBLICAN CONVENTION, THAT MAY
HAVE NOT GONE OVER TOO WELL.
ROMNEY HASN'T GIVEN INDEPENDENT
VOTERS TO TALK ABOUT.
>> Tim: HE HAS BUT NOT WHAT THEY
WANT TO TALK ABOUT.
>> IT'S PART OF THE 47%.
>> JIM BLANCHARD SAYS I AM PART
OF THE 47% AND I AM PAYING
TAXES.
WILL THIS BLOW OVER?
>> EVERYTHING BLOWS OVER
EVENTUALLY.
THERE WILL BE SOMETHING NEW.
RIGHT NOW IT'S GETTING A LOT OF
PLAY.
A LOT OF PEOPLE REALLY FEEL LIKE
THIS IS LEGALLY MITT ROMNEY.
>> THE REPUBLICANS ARE TROTTING
OUT THAT PRESIDENT WANTS TO
REDISTRIBUTE THE WEALTH.
WILL THAT GET THE SAME LEGS AS
THIS THING?
>> IT WILL NOT.
>> IT'S SOCIALIST.
>> THEY HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL
ALONG, IT HASN'T WORKED YET.
LOOK, HE HAS GOT TO DO
SOMETHING.
HE COULD POSSIBLY -- THIS IS
WHAT THE CONSERVATIVES AND
REPUBLICANS HOPE -- CONVERTED
THIS FIASCO INTO SOMETHING
SPECTACULAR, LIKE DO A JUJITSU
AND REFRAME THE WHOLE DEBATE.
>> Tim: DOES HE MEAN IT?
>> HE SOLIDIFIES THE BASE WITH
THAT.
>> HE CAN BASICALLY TURN NIGHT
THE ARGUMENT THEY ARE PUSHING.
WHICH IS WHAT THE REPUBLICANS
BELIEVE IN GROWING JOBS FOR
EVERYBODY.
>> I AM NOT INTERESTED IN THESE
PEOPLE.
I BELIEVE IT HAS BEEN
MISINTERPRETED.
>> THAT LINE WAS IN THE CONTEXT
I'M NOT GOING TO GET THEM.
THEY ARE ALREADY GONE.
>> THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS IN
CAMPAIGNS.
>> Tim: IS IT UNFAIR?
>> OF COURSE IT'S UNFAIR.
THERE IS POLITICS.
YOU HAVE TO COME UP WITH
SOMETHING ELSE TO COUNTER IT.
THE PROBLEM IS ROMNEY HAS NOT
BEEN NIMBLE ENOUGH TO PIVOT AND
DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT AND GET
PEOPLE TO FOCUS ON SOMETHING
THAT IS GOING TO BE POSITIVE FOR
HIM.
HE CAN'T SEEM TO STOP SHOOTING
HIMSELF IN THE FOOT.
>> Tim: NUMBERS IN THE U.S.
SENATE RACE?
>> STABENOW WITH A 16-POINT LEAD
OVER CONGRESSMAN HOEKSTRA.
>> THAT IS REALLY BIG.
>> WHY IS IT THAT BIG?
>> I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT IF
IT'S AN INDICATION OF A TREND.
SHE GOT THE FARM BILL
ENDORSEMENT.
HOEKSTRA HAS NEVER TAKEN OFF.
HIS CAMPAIGN NEVER CAUGHT FIRE.
SHE IS SITTING ON HER MONEY.
SHE HASN'T SPENT ANYTHING.
>> Tim: HOW DOES HOEKSTRA WIN
THIS THING?
>> THAT IS AN EXCELLENT QUESTION
WE SHOULD HAVE HIM BACK.
>> THEY SHOULD DO THE DEBATES.
>> THEY DON'T HAVE THE FORMAT.
>> THEY SCHEDULED ON TWO.
>> THE JOINT ECONOMIC CLUB AND
ON THE WEST SIDE.
>> DO THEY HAVE A DATE?
>> THAT IS WHAT I MEAN.
>>> WE TAKE NO QUESTIONS FROM
REPORTERS AND QUESTIONS FROM THE
AUDIENCE.
>> THE THING THAT IS HURTING
PETE HOEKSTRA IS THE SAME THING
HURTING MITT ROMNEY.
STABENOW HAS A 2-1 MARGIN IN
WOMEN OVER PETE HOEKSTRA.
>> THE REASON WHY IS THERE IS
MORE DEMOCRATS IN YOUR SURVEY
PEOPLE HAVE MOVED INTO THAT
COLUMN SINCE THE LAST POLLING.
YOU HAVE WOMEN THAT IDENTIFY AS
INDEPENDENTS ARE NOW SHIFTING TO
DEMOCRATS.
>> IN AUGUST SURVEY IT WAS 39%
DEMOCRATS, 32 REPUBLICAN AND 25
INDEPENDENTS.
INDEPENDENTS ARE SHIFTING OVER
INTO THE DEMOCRATIC COLUMN.
>> THEY AREN'T STAYING THERE.
>> ANYTHING AT BALLOT PROPOSALS
JUMPED OUT AT YOU?
>> THE BRIDGE IS MAKING A
COMEBACK.
>> Tim: TOWARD 50%?
>> 49.9.
>> YOU HAVE TO BE OVER 60.
>> THEY WERE AT 42 1/2 BACK IN
AUGUST.
ITS COMEBACK IS POSSIBLY LINKED
TO THEIR ADS.
THEY SPENT MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
THEIR ADS ARE TELLING PEOPLE WHY
THEY ARE VOTING YES.
FEATURING INTERVIEWS PEOPLE
SAYING WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH
MONEY FOR SCHOOLS BUT HOW COULD
WE HAVE ENOUGH MONEY FOR BRIDGE.
NOBODY IS POINTING THAT OUT.
THEY ARE BENEFITING AND PEOPLE
I'VE INTERVIEWED THEY SAY THOSE
ADS RESONATE.
THE OTHER PEOPLE THAT LIKE THOSE
ADS IS LABOR UNIONS.
THAT MATCHES THEIR MESSAGE ON
PROPOSAL 12 ON COLLECTIVE
BARGAINING THERE IS SOME KIND OF
AN ASSAULT BY SPECIAL INTERESTS
ON PUBLIC WORKERS, TEACHERS,
FIREFIGHTERS.
SO THE LABOR UNIONS LIKE THESE
ADS BECAUSE IT'S RESONATES WITH
THE SAME MESSAGE THEY ARE
PUSHING AND THE UAW.
>>> IT MAY BE A POINT.
>> I DON'T SEE IN THE
CONNECTION.
>> I JUST MISSED IT.
>> FINALLY LINK UP ON A YES
CAMPAIGN BUT NOBODY COULD GET IT
TOGETHER.
>> Tim: IS THE NO RESONATE GO IS
THAT IS WHAT DOMINATING?
>> I THINK IT IS.
I THINK IT'S HURTING PROPOSAL 1,
A FINANCIAL MANAGER, THAT
SUPPORT HAS DROPPED.
ALL THOSE OVER IS HOVERING
AROUND THE HIGH 40s AND 50s.
YOU NEED MORE OF A CUSHION THAN
THAT GOING INTO AN ELECTION.
>> IT'S VERY HARD TO POLL ON
THESE QUESTIONS.
WE PROBABLY SEE A SURPRISE WITH
SOMETHING ON ELECTION DAY.
>> YOU CANNOT POLL BALLOTS.
>> WHEN WE HAD THE SUMMARIES
BASED ON THE PETITIONS, NOW WE
HAVE HUNDRED WORD STATEMENTS
FROM THE BALLOTS AND READ THOSE
TO PEOPLE, IT'S VERY EASY TO GET
LOST.
>> ONE OF SUBTLE THINGS YOU CAN
POLL FOR IS IF THIS BRIDGE IS A
LITTLE TOWN CALLED DETROIT.
ANYTHING WITH A DSM IS ON IT
OTHER THAN THE TIGERS?
>> MAYBE PEOPLE THINK PEOPLE
FROM DETROIT WILL LEAVE TO
CANADA.
>> YOU COULD MAKE THAT ARGUMENT
BUT I'M NOT SURE THEY ARE GOING
TO.
>> AM I ON TO SOMETHING?
>> YOU THINK THE STATE IS GOING
TO VOTED AGAINST THIS.
>> I WOULDN'T BET THAT.
THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE OUT OF
STATE WHO ARE RETIRED.
A INTERVIEWED A MAN IN TRAVERSE
CITY LAST NIGHT.
HE READS THE DETROIT PAPERS
PRETTY REGULARLY.
>> HE IS THE ONE.
>> HE KNOWS WHO IS BEHIND THE
BRIDGE AMENDMENT.
>> ONE POLL HAS 64%.
>> LET'S GO WITH CHARLIE OWENS.
>> CHARLIE OWENS IS THE STATE
DIRECTOR OF THE MICHIGAN CHAPTER
OF NFIB.
HE HAS BEEN IN LANSING LOBBYIST
FOR 25 YEARS AND IS CURRENTLY
WORKING WITH A GROUP TRYING TO
INSTALL A TWO-THIRDS VOTE TO
RAISE TAXES AFRICAN-AMERICAN
NATIVE OF ILLINOIS, MR. OWENS
EARNED HIS UNDERGRADUATE DEGREE
FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
>> Tim: MR. OWENS IS HERE
BECAUSE THE PEOPLE THAT WERE
FIGHTING THIS BALLOT YOU ARE A
YES VOTE.
CHAD HAS THE FIRST QUESTION?
>> WHY SHOULD PEOPLE VOTE FOR
THIS?
>> I THINK THAT IF YOU CONSIDER
THE FACT THAT WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN
WASHINGTON AND IN A LOT OF STATE
AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, WHEN
THERE IS A CRISIS IN THE BUDGET,
WHEN THERE IS A BUDGET SHORTFALL
IT SEEMS LIKE TAX INCREASES ARE
THE FIRST PLACES THAT ELECTED
OFFICIALS LIKE TO GO.
THIS WOULD MAKE IT A LITTLE
HARDER FOR THEM TO DO THAT.
OUR HOPE IS THAT WOULD FORCE
THEM TO PRIORITIZE SPENDING AND
OTHER THINGS.
IF THEY CAN MAKE A CASE TO THE
PEOPLE THEY HAVE DONE ALL THOSE
THINGS.
THAT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH AND THEY
NEED A TAX INCREASE.
THEY CAN GET A TAX INCREASE.
>> IS THIS A PERSONAL
INFORMATION OR NFID'S POSITION?
>> THIS IS THEIR POSITION.
>>> WOULD YOU VOTE YES ON IT OR
NOT?
>> I WOULD VOTE YES ON IT.
>> THE OTHER PROPOSALS, WHERE DO
YOU SIT IN WITH CHAMBER AND
MICHIGAN MANUFACTURERS AND SMALL
BUSINESS.
HAVE YOU COALESCED AND UNIFIED
IN ONE POSITION ON MORE THAN....
>> ON ANYTHING?
>> ACTUALLY THE BALLOT PROPOSAL?
>> MOST OF THE TIME WE ARE ON
THE SAME PAGE.
WE SETTLE OUR POLICIES
DIFFERENTLY THAN OTHER GROUPS BY
SURVEYING OUR MEMBERS.
THAT PUTS US IN A DIFFERENT
PLACE QUITE OFTEN.
THE SHORT ANSWER, WE AGREE WITH
THOSE GROUPS ON TWO AND FOUR.
VOTE NO.
WE WANT TO SEE THE EMERGENCY
MANAGER LAW LEFT ENACT WHICH
WOULD BE YES VOTE ON 1.
THE AREA WE DIFFICULT IS PROP 5
ON TWO-THIRDS.
WE HAVE NO POSITION ON THAT.
>> WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER POSITION
THE CHAMBER, THE BRIDGE
PROPOSAL?
>> I THINK SO.
AGAIN, BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE A
POSITION ON IT.
I HAVEN'T BEEN PAYING AS MUCH
ATTENTION.
>> DO YOU FIND YOU ARE
ACCIDENTALLY IN-SYNC WITH THESE
GROUPS OR DO YOU SIT DOWN AT A
TABLE AND BRAINSTORM, WE'RE
GOING TO MARCH OUT ARM IN ARM?
>> EARLY ON WE SAT DOWN AND
LOOKED AT THE BALLOT PROPOSALS
AND ANALYZE OPPORTUNITIES.
WE WERE ALL WORKING IN THE SAME
DIRECTION.
MY CHALLENGE IS A LOT OF THESE
GROUPS BECAUSE THEY SET POLICY
TO BOARDS OF DIRECTORS OR
LEGISLATIVE COMMITTEES.
WHEN WE GET IN THE COMMITTEES,
THEY SAY WE'RE GOING IN THIS
DIRECTION.
I SAY I THINK MY MEMBERS WILL GO
IN THIS DIRECTION UNTIL I SURVEY
THEM I DO NOT KNOW.
>>> THE OTHER SIDE IS GOING TO
BE MAKING MATTIE THE BAD GUY
BECAUSE HE IS FUNDING THE TWO
THIRDS VOTE?
>> IT MAY BE A LIABILITY FOR THE
PROPOSAL.
IT'S NOT A LIABILITY FOR US.
IF YOU GO BACK TO 2006 WHEN WE
HAD THE STOPOVER SPENDING EFFORT
IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER TO US
HOW IT GOT THERE.
WE'RE GOING TO VOTE WHAT IS IN
FRONT OF US.
>> IF A PROPOSAL IS ON THE
BALLOT.
IT'S OUR JOB.
>> BUT HOW ABOUT HAVING HIM FUND
IT?
>> I DIDN'T SAY THAT.
>> WHY MIGHT IT BE?
>> THERE WAS ONE SPECIFIC
INDIVIDUAL THAT PUT A LOT OF
FUNDING FOR IT.
THAT MAY BE A NEGATIVE FOR SOME
PEOPLE.
STOPOVER IT WAS OUT OF STATE
GROUP THAT CAME IN.
I THINK THAT SOME GROUPS REACT
TO THAT NEGATIVELY AND SOME
VOTERS MAY.
>> LAST YEAR THE CENSUS THEY GOT
A $1 BILLION TAX CUT AND TAX
INCREASES FOR INDIVIDUALS.
THAT COULDN'T HAPPEN UNDER
PROPOSAL 5.
WOULD THAT BE A BAD THING?
>> IT WOULD BE.
I HAVE HAD THE QUESTION PUT TO
ME, IF WE HAD PROPOSAL 5 IN
PLACE YOU WOULD HAVE GOTTEN RID
OF THE MICHIGAN BUSINESS TAX AND
GONE TO THE NEW TAX SYSTEM.
I BELIEVE PROBABLY NOT.
IF YOU GO BACK TO THE VOTED.
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR CAST THE TIE
BREAKING VOTED.
>> Tim: WHY WERE SUPPORTING IT?
>> THAT WAS THEN AND THIS IS
NOW.
HERE WE HAVE A SITUATION WHERE
WE THINK WE HAVE MADE GREAT
PROGRESS IN THE BUSINESS TAX
CLIMATE IN THE STATE.
NOW, WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT IT
BEING JEOPARDIZED.
>> YOU HAVE A REPUBLICAN
GOVERNOR AND A LEGISLATURE THAT
IS LIKELY TO BE REPUBLICAN.
WHAT ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT?
>> WELL, HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT
THESE THINGS DO EASTBOUND AND
FLOW.
I GO BACK BEING IN THIS DOWN TOO
LONG.
I REMEMBER IN THE ENGLER
ADMINISTRATION WE HAD SO MUCH
MONEY WE DIDN'T EVEN KNOW WHAT
TO DO WITH IT.
YOU WERE THERE.
AT THAT POINT IT WAS PA FIGHT
OVER WHICH TAX CUT HOW LOW DO WE
MAKE THE INCOME TAX.
OUR CONCERN IS EVEN WITH THE
FISCAL RESPONSIBILITIES SHOWN BY
THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION AND
LEGISLATURE, WITHIN A FEW YEARS
OR MORE, WE COULD BE BACK INTO A
SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE
SURPLUSES.
WE LOOK AH THE LITTLE SURPLUS.
>> Tim: THEN YOU DON'T HAVE TO
WOULD WORRY ABOUT A TAX HIKE?
>> BUT THE TEMPTATION TO SPEND
RISES AGAIN.
THAT LEADS AT SOME POINT THE
SURPLUS IS SPENT AND THEN WE
HEAD INTO A DEFICIT.
>> Tim: HOW ABOUT ON THE OUTSIDE
LOOKING INTO AND EVERYBODY IN
TOWN IS AGAINST THIS PROPOSAL?
>> WE'RE THE ONLY GROUP THAT
SUPPORTS TERM LIMITS.
>> IN CALIFORNIA FOR INSTANCE
THEY HAVE TERM LIMITS.
THEY ALSO HAVE A TWO-THIRDS
AMENDMENT.
HAD A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR FOR
EIGHT YEARS AND THEY STILL HAVE
BEEN CRITICIZED AS BEING THE
WORST MANAGED STATE IN THE
COUNTRY.
THAT HASN'T CHANGED OBVIOUSLY.
HAS THEIR VERSION OF PROPOSAL 5
CONTRIBUTED OR IN YOUR
ESTIMATION IS THERE SOMETHING
ELSE GOING ON?
>> THERE IS SOMETHING ELSE GOING
ON.
IF YOU ARE REFERRING TO PROP 13.
THERE WAS PROPOSAL IT WAS 111
THAT WAS PASSED IN 2000.
WITHOUT GETTING INTO DETAIL IT
WAS SUPPOSE TO THAT THE GASOLINE
TAX BUT THERE WAS A THING THAT
MOVED THE LIMIT WHICH WAS A
SPENDING LIMITATION.
WHEN THEY SLIPPED OUT THE LIMIT,
IT STRIPPED OUT THE SPENDING
RESTRICTIONS.
AFTER THAT HAD OCCURRED IN 2000
WAS 30% INCREASE IN SPENDING
UNDER BOTH GRAY DAVIS AND ARNOLD
SCHWARZENEGGER, A REPUBLICAN.
THIS ISN'T A PARTY ISSUE.
>> WHAT IF TWO YEARS FROM NOW
THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, NEVER
KNOW, WE WANT TO CHANGE THIS TAX
AGAIN.
HOW ARE WE GOING TO DO THAT?
>> WE HAVE TO GET TWO-THIRDS.
>> HOW ARE YOU GOING TO DO THAT?
>> LET'S GO BACK TO COLORADO, A
TAX BILL OF RIGHTS.
PEOPLE SAID IT WAS A BAD IDEA.
I BELIEVE THEY PASSED THAT IN
1992.
IN 2005 A CASE, THE GOVERNOR AND
LEGISLATURE MADE A INDICATES TO
THE PEOPLE THAT THEY NEEDED THAT
SPENDING LIMIT RAISED OR THEY
NEEDED IT EX EMPTIED SO THEY
COULD BALANCE THEIR BUDGET.
THEY MADE A GOOD CASE TO THE
PEOPLE.
THE PEOPLE RESPONDED AND THEY
OVERRODE THE SPENDING LIMIT.
>> 13 SENATORS CAN BLOCK THE
POLICY THAT THE MAJORITY MAY
WANT?
>> THAT IS ABSOLUTELY CORRECT
BUT AGAIN, THAT GOES HAND IN
HAND WITH OUR BELIEF THAT YOU
NEED A HIGHER TLRB HOLD TO
INCREASE TAXES.
>> Tim: WHY IS MAJORITY RULE IS
NOT OKAY WHEN IT COMES TO TAXES
WHEN THAT IS ESSENCE OF OUR
DEMOCRACY?
>> IT'S BECAUSE IT'S TOO EASY.
>> LOOK AT THE FIGHT WE HAD IN
2007.
YOU ALMOST HAD FIST FIGHTS ON
THE FLOOR.
IT HASN'T BEEN EXTREMELY EASY TO
RAISE TAXES HERE?
>> NO, BUT IN 2007 WE ENDED UP
WITH A INCOME TAX OFF AND 25
SURCHARGE ON BUSINESS TAX AND I
THINK IT WAS OVER TWO HOURS.
AGAIN WITH A TWO-THIRDS
REQUIREMENT A LOT OF THAT
WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED.
>> LET ME COME BACK TO YOUR
QUESTION.
LET'S ASSUME THAT THE MICHIGAN
BUSINESS TAX WAS STILL HERE.
NOW THIS PROPOSAL CAME UP.
THEN WHEN WE SURVEYED OUR
MEMBERS, I WOULD MAKE THE
CASE -- BECAUSE WE DO A PRO AND
CON ARGUMENT AND OUR MEMBERS
VOTE -- I WOULD HAVE MADE THE
ARGUMENT WITH THIS IN PLACE, YOU
WILL BE STUCK WITH A MICHIGAN
BUSINESS TAX.
>> Tim: WHAT WE HAVE HAPPENED TO
THE NUMBERS?
>> I THINK THE NUMBERS WOULD
HAVE SHIFTED.
WHEN MEMBERS ARE OPINING THE
SINGLE BUSINESS TAX TO COME BACK
YOU KNOW YOU HAVE A BAD
SITUATION.
>> THE LEGISLATURE COULD PASS
RESOLUTION SUPPORT A TAX
INCREASE FOR VOTERS TO DECIDE?
>> CORRECT.
>> WOULD YOUR GROUP RUN A
CAMPAIGN FOR THAT?
>> IT DEPENDS.
I WOULD HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE
NATURE OF THE TAX INCREASE AND
THE REASONS WE WOULD SUPPORT IT.
I DON'T KNOW.
>> WHAT ABOUT SPENDING ON IT?
>> I THINK THE STOP OVER STENGD.
>> Tim: ARE YOU GOING TO RUN
COMMERCIALS FOR A YES VOTE ON
THIS?
>> NO.
>> Tim: THERE WILL BE NO ADS AT
ALL?
>> NO.
>> ARE YOU PART OF A COALITION
THERE WILL BE SPENDING?
>> THERE WILL BE SPENDING.
>> IT WILL COME FROM MR. MARUN?
>> IT MAY.
>> Tim: IS THAT TRUE ON OR IS
THAT YOUR GUT TALKING?
>> THAT IS MY GUT TALKING.
>> WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER
PROPOSALS WHO IS GOING TO PAYING
THERE?
>> I THINK THE BUSINESS
COMMUNITIES, YOU'VE HEARD THE
NUMBERS BETWEEN $30-50 MILLION
BEING RAISED BY ORGANIZED LABOR.
>> Tim: I HAVE TO GET OUT OF
HERE.
THANKS FOR JOINING US.
DON'T FORGET WE HAVE GENE KLEM
WILL BE SITTING ON THAT CHAIR.
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK FOR "OFF THE
RECORD".
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