>>> WELCOME BACK.

OFF THE RECORD STARTS RIGHT NOW.

>> ON THE PANEL THIS WEEK WE

HAVE SUE DEMAS AND BILL

BALLENGER ALONG WERE CHAD

LIVENGOOD.

HERE IS THE RUNDOWN.

A NEW PRESIDENTIAL POLL IN

MICHIGAN, AN UPDATE ON THE U.S.

SENATE RACE AND LATER ON,

BUSINESS LOBBYIST IS PITCHING A

TAX HIKE PLAN.

ALL THIS AND MORE COMING UP

RIGHT NOW, "OFF THE RECORD."

¶

¶

>> Tim: THANK YOU JOE.

WELCOME TO OUR PROGRAM.

POLLING DATA ON THE PRESIDENTIAL

RACE IN MICHIGAN.

LET'S TAKE A PEEK.

>> IN THE HEAD TO HEAD MATCH-UP.

IT'S 47% FOR OBAMA AND 42% FOR

MR. ROMNEY WITH A 4% MARGIN OF

ERROR.

HOWEVER, WITH THE IMPORTANT

FEMALE VOTERS IT'S MR. OBAMA

WITH A 7% LEAD AND LEAD WITH

INDEPENDENT VOTERS.

ACROSS THE STATE THE PRESIDENT

LEADS IN DETROIT, HAS NARROW

LEAD IN WEST MICHIGAN AND

LANSING HE ENJOYS A 47% TO 40%

SPREAD.

BUT POLTSD ALSO REVEAL THAT IN

OAKLAND COUNTY.

REPUBLICAN TERRITORY, MR. ROMNEY

IS LOSING BY 16 POINTS.

>> THE POLLS ARE TRYING TO DRIVE

THE DEBATE AND ELECTION.

>> SO YOU DON'T BELIEVE YOUR GUY

IS BEHIND IN OAKLAND COUNTY?

>> I HAVE NO IDEA UNTIL I LOOK

AT THE POLLS.

>> ROMNEY IS LOWER WHERE HE

SHOULD BE WITH WEST MICHIGAN BUT

INDEPENDENTS ARE UNDECIDED.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY.

>> MR. ROMNEY HAS A BIG DEAL

WHETHER YOU ARE BETTER OFF FOUR

YEARS AGO.

37% SAY THEY ARE BETTER OFF AND

40% SAY THEY ARE NOT.

IRONICALLY FOR REPUBLICANS

TAKING CREDIT MR. SNYDER TURNING

THE STATE'S ECONOMY AROUND BUT

THE PRESIDENT IS BENEFITING FROM

THAT.

>> OBAMA IS BENEFITING FROM THE

FACT THAT MICHIGAN ARE DOING A

LOT BETTER THAN THEY WERE TWO TO

FOUR YEARS AGO, THEY ARE GIVING

OBAMA ALMOST AS MUCH CREDIT AS

SNYDER FOR DOING THAT.

>> 49 DAYS AGO UNTIL THE POLL

THAT REALLY COUNTS.

>> Tim: IT SEEMS TO ME, THE

PROBLEM IN OAKLAND COUNTY FOR

MR. ROMNEY S IT HUGE?

>> I THINK IT IS.

WE HAVE A LOT OF SUBURBAN VOTERS

THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY.

2010 THEY WENT REPUBLICAN.

THIS YEAR WAS ALL OF THE WOMEN

AND REPUBLICANS TRYING TO GET

THEM BACK.

>> YOU HAVE SOME POLLING COMING

OUT.

ARE YOU COP SET I CAN WITH THE

NUMBERS HERE?

>> AND BIGGER MARGIN FOR OBAMA,

52-38 ROUGHLY.

>> Tim: IN THE HEAD TO HEAD?

>> IN THE HEAD TO HEAD CITY TO.

PRESIDENT IS GETTING A BIG SURGE

IN WOMEN VOTERS ON HIS SIDE AND

OAKLAND COUNTY IS GOING MORE IN

HIS COLUMN.

THE HOUSE DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE

IS REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS.

THEY THINK THAT SOUTHERN SUBURBS

AROUND DETROIT ARE WHERE THEY

CAN PICK UP SOME SEATS.

>> THERE IS A LOT OF POLLING OUT

THERE.

DEFINITELY HIS LEAD HAS GONE UP

SINCE THE DNC.

EPIC MRA HAS HIM UP BY TEN.

>> THIS RACE IS NOT OVER?

>> I DON'T THINK IT IS.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE

POLL.

DIDN'T THEY DO THE POLL -- THEY

MAY HAVE OVERSAMPLED DEMOCRATS

BY 14%.

THERE IS WHAT I'VE HEARD.

WELL, THAT IS WHAT I HAVE HEARD.

BUT IN ANY EVENT I THINK

PROBABLY THE POLL THAT YOU

REPORTED THERE IN THE VIDEO IS

MORE ACCURATE OF WHERE THE LAUGH

IS PROBABLY IS.

SUSAN IS RIGHT.

MITT ROMNEY CAN'T DO WELL IN HIS

OWN HOME STOMPING GROUNDS OF

OAKLAND COUNTY HE HAS REAL

PROBLEMS IN MICHIGAN.

AGAIN, WE'RE INUNDATED WITH

POLLS, THEY ARE GOING TO COULD

KEEP OPENING IN.

REMEMBER, JIMMY CARTER WAS AHEAD

OF RONALD REAGAN UNTIL THE

DEBATE AND THAT WAS IN OCTOBER.

THERE IS LONG WAY TO GO AND

THINGS CAN TURN AROUND BUT IT'S

BEEN A BAD WEEK.

>> WHAT ABOUT ROMNEY AND GALLUP

WHERE CARTER WAS AHEAD POLLING

REAGAN.

YOU WOULD NEED SOMETHING VERY

SIGNIFICANT.

ESPECIALLY IN MICHIGAN TO TURN

AROUND FOR ROMNEY.

IT'S TOTALLY NOT OUT OF THE

QUESTION.

WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE EUROPEAN

ECONOMY IS GOING TO DO.

THERE COULD BE AN INCIDENT IN

LIBYA.

WE HAVE NO IDEA.

IT DOES SEEM TO BE TROUBLING

SINCE THIS SUMMER AND TRAILING

IN OBAMA'S WAY.

>> IT'S 47%% DEMOCRATS, 40%

REPUBLICANS AND 16%

INDEPENDENTS.

>> IS EIGHT A PROBLEM OR NOT?

>> THERE ARE SO MANY POLLS OUT

THERE.

THERE COULD BE SOMEWHERE IT'S

ROUGHLY A DEBT HEAT.

THERE ARE NOT MANY OF THOSE BUT

THERE ARE SOME OBAMA IS AHEAD.

EVERYBODY AGREES OBAMA IS AHEAD.

THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH.

>> Tim: IF YOU ARE SITTING IN

THE ROMNEY CAMP, GUYS WE HAVE A

PROBLEM IN MICHIGAN.

WE PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A GOOD

SHOWING THERE.

WHAT DO WE DO?

>> THEY NEED TO GET OUT AND

CONNECT WITH VOTERS HERE.

>> Tim: WHAT ABOUT THE, QUOTE,

VICTORY CENTERS.

>> HE NEEDS A LOT MORE.

>> HE CAN WIN TECHNICALLY IF YOU

LOOK AT THE NUMBERS WITHOUT

WINNING MICHIGAN.

IT'S HARD TO SEE OBAMA BEING

ELECTED AS PRESIDENT IF HE

DOESN'T WIN MICHIGAN.

ROMNEY IS NOT GOING TO KIGS OFF

MICHIGAN.

I THINK HE IS GOING RUN IT LIKE

GEORGE BUSH IN 2004, HE IS GOING

TO REFUSE TO CONCEDE HE IS GOING

TO LOSE MICHIGAN AND MAKE OBAMA

WORK HERE.

THE OTHER NIGHT, WILL BE ON THE

GIBBS, FORMER PRESS SECRETARY

WAS HERE, I THINK WE HAVE TO

SPEND $10,000 IN MICHIGAN AND WE

CAN STILL WIN.

>> HE WAS WHISTLING FOR THE

GRAVEYARD.

[ LAUGHTER ]

>> SINCE THE PRIMARY, THEY SPENT

A GOOSE EGG WHICH IS BAD FOR THE

ECONOMY.

ROMNEY FOLKS HAVE KICKED IN.

WE APPRECIATE THAT.

>> YOU MENTIONED MIKE COX, ABOUT

THE FLAP OVER THE 47%.

IN ANOTHER WEEK NOBODY WILL

REMEMBER THE STORY AND MOVE ON

TO SOMETHING ELSE.

IS HE ON TO SOMETHING?

>> HE MAY BE.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS

SHOWING UP IN THE POLLS, VOTED

IS COMING OFF THE DEMOCRATIC

NATIONAL CONVENTION WHERE WE

HEARD A LOT ABOUT THE AUTO

INDUSTRY IN THAT CONVENTION.

THERE WAS SOME ISSUES IN THE

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION, THAT MAY

HAVE NOT GONE OVER TOO WELL.

ROMNEY HASN'T GIVEN INDEPENDENT

VOTERS TO TALK ABOUT.

>> Tim: HE HAS BUT NOT WHAT THEY

WANT TO TALK ABOUT.

>> IT'S PART OF THE 47%.

>> JIM BLANCHARD SAYS I AM PART

OF THE 47% AND I AM PAYING

TAXES.

WILL THIS BLOW OVER?

>> EVERYTHING BLOWS OVER

EVENTUALLY.

THERE WILL BE SOMETHING NEW.

RIGHT NOW IT'S GETTING A LOT OF

PLAY.

A LOT OF PEOPLE REALLY FEEL LIKE

THIS IS LEGALLY MITT ROMNEY.

>> THE REPUBLICANS ARE TROTTING

OUT THAT PRESIDENT WANTS TO

REDISTRIBUTE THE WEALTH.

WILL THAT GET THE SAME LEGS AS

THIS THING?

>> IT WILL NOT.

>> IT'S SOCIALIST.

>> THEY HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL

ALONG, IT HASN'T WORKED YET.

LOOK, HE HAS GOT TO DO

SOMETHING.

HE COULD POSSIBLY -- THIS IS

WHAT THE CONSERVATIVES AND

REPUBLICANS HOPE -- CONVERTED

THIS FIASCO INTO SOMETHING

SPECTACULAR, LIKE DO A JUJITSU

AND REFRAME THE WHOLE DEBATE.

>> Tim: DOES HE MEAN IT?

>> HE SOLIDIFIES THE BASE WITH

THAT.

>> HE CAN BASICALLY TURN NIGHT

THE ARGUMENT THEY ARE PUSHING.

WHICH IS WHAT THE REPUBLICANS

BELIEVE IN GROWING JOBS FOR

EVERYBODY.

>> I AM NOT INTERESTED IN THESE

PEOPLE.

I BELIEVE IT HAS BEEN

MISINTERPRETED.

>> THAT LINE WAS IN THE CONTEXT

I'M NOT GOING TO GET THEM.

THEY ARE ALREADY GONE.

>> THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS IN

CAMPAIGNS.

>> Tim: IS IT UNFAIR?

>> OF COURSE IT'S UNFAIR.

THERE IS POLITICS.

YOU HAVE TO COME UP WITH

SOMETHING ELSE TO COUNTER IT.

THE PROBLEM IS ROMNEY HAS NOT

BEEN NIMBLE ENOUGH TO PIVOT AND

DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT AND GET

PEOPLE TO FOCUS ON SOMETHING

THAT IS GOING TO BE POSITIVE FOR

HIM.

HE CAN'T SEEM TO STOP SHOOTING

HIMSELF IN THE FOOT.

>> Tim: NUMBERS IN THE U.S.

SENATE RACE?

>> STABENOW WITH A 16-POINT LEAD

OVER CONGRESSMAN HOEKSTRA.

>> THAT IS REALLY BIG.

>> WHY IS IT THAT BIG?

>> I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT IF

IT'S AN INDICATION OF A TREND.

SHE GOT THE FARM BILL

ENDORSEMENT.

HOEKSTRA HAS NEVER TAKEN OFF.

HIS CAMPAIGN NEVER CAUGHT FIRE.

SHE IS SITTING ON HER MONEY.

SHE HASN'T SPENT ANYTHING.

>> Tim: HOW DOES HOEKSTRA WIN

THIS THING?

>> THAT IS AN EXCELLENT QUESTION

WE SHOULD HAVE HIM BACK.

>> THEY SHOULD DO THE DEBATES.

>> THEY DON'T HAVE THE FORMAT.

>> THEY SCHEDULED ON TWO.

>> THE JOINT ECONOMIC CLUB AND

ON THE WEST SIDE.

>> DO THEY HAVE A DATE?

>> THAT IS WHAT I MEAN.

>>> WE TAKE NO QUESTIONS FROM

REPORTERS AND QUESTIONS FROM THE

AUDIENCE.

>> THE THING THAT IS HURTING

PETE HOEKSTRA IS THE SAME THING

HURTING MITT ROMNEY.

STABENOW HAS A 2-1 MARGIN IN

WOMEN OVER PETE HOEKSTRA.

>> THE REASON WHY IS THERE IS

MORE DEMOCRATS IN YOUR SURVEY

PEOPLE HAVE MOVED INTO THAT

COLUMN SINCE THE LAST POLLING.

YOU HAVE WOMEN THAT IDENTIFY AS

INDEPENDENTS ARE NOW SHIFTING TO

DEMOCRATS.

>> IN AUGUST SURVEY IT WAS 39%

DEMOCRATS, 32 REPUBLICAN AND 25

INDEPENDENTS.

INDEPENDENTS ARE SHIFTING OVER

INTO THE DEMOCRATIC COLUMN.

>> THEY AREN'T STAYING THERE.

>> ANYTHING AT BALLOT PROPOSALS

JUMPED OUT AT YOU?

>> THE BRIDGE IS MAKING A

COMEBACK.

>> Tim: TOWARD 50%?

>> 49.9.

>> YOU HAVE TO BE OVER 60.

>> THEY WERE AT 42 1/2 BACK IN

AUGUST.

ITS COMEBACK IS POSSIBLY LINKED

TO THEIR ADS.

THEY SPENT MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

THEIR ADS ARE TELLING PEOPLE WHY

THEY ARE VOTING YES.

FEATURING INTERVIEWS PEOPLE

SAYING WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH

MONEY FOR SCHOOLS BUT HOW COULD

WE HAVE ENOUGH MONEY FOR BRIDGE.

NOBODY IS POINTING THAT OUT.

THEY ARE BENEFITING AND PEOPLE

I'VE INTERVIEWED THEY SAY THOSE

ADS RESONATE.

THE OTHER PEOPLE THAT LIKE THOSE

ADS IS LABOR UNIONS.

THAT MATCHES THEIR MESSAGE ON

PROPOSAL 12 ON COLLECTIVE

BARGAINING THERE IS SOME KIND OF

AN ASSAULT BY SPECIAL INTERESTS

ON PUBLIC WORKERS, TEACHERS,

FIREFIGHTERS.

SO THE LABOR UNIONS LIKE THESE

ADS BECAUSE IT'S RESONATES WITH

THE SAME MESSAGE THEY ARE

PUSHING AND THE UAW.

>>> IT MAY BE A POINT.

>> I DON'T SEE IN THE

CONNECTION.

>> I JUST MISSED IT.

>> FINALLY LINK UP ON A YES

CAMPAIGN BUT NOBODY COULD GET IT

TOGETHER.

>> Tim: IS THE NO RESONATE GO IS

THAT IS WHAT DOMINATING?

>> I THINK IT IS.

I THINK IT'S HURTING PROPOSAL 1,

A FINANCIAL MANAGER, THAT

SUPPORT HAS DROPPED.

ALL THOSE OVER IS HOVERING

AROUND THE HIGH 40s AND 50s.

YOU NEED MORE OF A CUSHION THAN

THAT GOING INTO AN ELECTION.

>> IT'S VERY HARD TO POLL ON

THESE QUESTIONS.

WE PROBABLY SEE A SURPRISE WITH

SOMETHING ON ELECTION DAY.

>> YOU CANNOT POLL BALLOTS.

>> WHEN WE HAD THE SUMMARIES

BASED ON THE PETITIONS, NOW WE

HAVE HUNDRED WORD STATEMENTS

FROM THE BALLOTS AND READ THOSE

TO PEOPLE, IT'S VERY EASY TO GET

LOST.

>> ONE OF SUBTLE THINGS YOU CAN

POLL FOR IS IF THIS BRIDGE IS A

LITTLE TOWN CALLED DETROIT.

ANYTHING WITH A DSM IS ON IT

OTHER THAN THE TIGERS?

>> MAYBE PEOPLE THINK PEOPLE

FROM DETROIT WILL LEAVE TO

CANADA.

>> YOU COULD MAKE THAT ARGUMENT

BUT I'M NOT SURE THEY ARE GOING

TO.

>> AM I ON TO SOMETHING?

>> YOU THINK THE STATE IS GOING

TO VOTED AGAINST THIS.

>> I WOULDN'T BET THAT.

THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE OUT OF

STATE WHO ARE RETIRED.

A INTERVIEWED A MAN IN TRAVERSE

CITY LAST NIGHT.

HE READS THE DETROIT PAPERS

PRETTY REGULARLY.

>> HE IS THE ONE.

>> HE KNOWS WHO IS BEHIND THE

BRIDGE AMENDMENT.

>> ONE POLL HAS 64%.

>> LET'S GO WITH CHARLIE OWENS.

>> CHARLIE OWENS IS THE STATE

DIRECTOR OF THE MICHIGAN CHAPTER

OF NFIB.

HE HAS BEEN IN LANSING LOBBYIST

FOR 25 YEARS AND IS CURRENTLY

WORKING WITH A GROUP TRYING TO

INSTALL A TWO-THIRDS VOTE TO

RAISE TAXES AFRICAN-AMERICAN

NATIVE OF ILLINOIS, MR. OWENS

EARNED HIS UNDERGRADUATE DEGREE

FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

>> Tim: MR. OWENS IS HERE

BECAUSE THE PEOPLE THAT WERE

FIGHTING THIS BALLOT YOU ARE A

YES VOTE.

CHAD HAS THE FIRST QUESTION?

>> WHY SHOULD PEOPLE VOTE FOR

THIS?

>> I THINK THAT IF YOU CONSIDER

THE FACT THAT WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN

WASHINGTON AND IN A LOT OF STATE

AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, WHEN

THERE IS A CRISIS IN THE BUDGET,

WHEN THERE IS A BUDGET SHORTFALL

IT SEEMS LIKE TAX INCREASES ARE

THE FIRST PLACES THAT ELECTED

OFFICIALS LIKE TO GO.

THIS WOULD MAKE IT A LITTLE

HARDER FOR THEM TO DO THAT.

OUR HOPE IS THAT WOULD FORCE

THEM TO PRIORITIZE SPENDING AND

OTHER THINGS.

IF THEY CAN MAKE A CASE TO THE

PEOPLE THEY HAVE DONE ALL THOSE

THINGS.

THAT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH AND THEY

NEED A TAX INCREASE.

THEY CAN GET A TAX INCREASE.

>> IS THIS A PERSONAL

INFORMATION OR NFID'S POSITION?

>> THIS IS THEIR POSITION.

>>> WOULD YOU VOTE YES ON IT OR

NOT?

>> I WOULD VOTE YES ON IT.

>> THE OTHER PROPOSALS, WHERE DO

YOU SIT IN WITH CHAMBER AND

MICHIGAN MANUFACTURERS AND SMALL

BUSINESS.

HAVE YOU COALESCED AND UNIFIED

IN ONE POSITION ON MORE THAN....

>> ON ANYTHING?

>> ACTUALLY THE BALLOT PROPOSAL?

>> MOST OF THE TIME WE ARE ON

THE SAME PAGE.

WE SETTLE OUR POLICIES

DIFFERENTLY THAN OTHER GROUPS BY

SURVEYING OUR MEMBERS.

THAT PUTS US IN A DIFFERENT

PLACE QUITE OFTEN.

THE SHORT ANSWER, WE AGREE WITH

THOSE GROUPS ON TWO AND FOUR.

VOTE NO.

WE WANT TO SEE THE EMERGENCY

MANAGER LAW LEFT ENACT WHICH

WOULD BE YES VOTE ON 1.

THE AREA WE DIFFICULT IS PROP 5

ON TWO-THIRDS.

WE HAVE NO POSITION ON THAT.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER POSITION

THE CHAMBER, THE BRIDGE

PROPOSAL?

>> I THINK SO.

AGAIN, BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE A

POSITION ON IT.

I HAVEN'T BEEN PAYING AS MUCH

ATTENTION.

>> DO YOU FIND YOU ARE

ACCIDENTALLY IN-SYNC WITH THESE

GROUPS OR DO YOU SIT DOWN AT A

TABLE AND BRAINSTORM, WE'RE

GOING TO MARCH OUT ARM IN ARM?

>> EARLY ON WE SAT DOWN AND

LOOKED AT THE BALLOT PROPOSALS

AND ANALYZE OPPORTUNITIES.

WE WERE ALL WORKING IN THE SAME

DIRECTION.

MY CHALLENGE IS A LOT OF THESE

GROUPS BECAUSE THEY SET POLICY

TO BOARDS OF DIRECTORS OR

LEGISLATIVE COMMITTEES.

WHEN WE GET IN THE COMMITTEES,

THEY SAY WE'RE GOING IN THIS

DIRECTION.

I SAY I THINK MY MEMBERS WILL GO

IN THIS DIRECTION UNTIL I SURVEY

THEM I DO NOT KNOW.

>>> THE OTHER SIDE IS GOING TO

BE MAKING MATTIE THE BAD GUY

BECAUSE HE IS FUNDING THE TWO

THIRDS VOTE?

>> IT MAY BE A LIABILITY FOR THE

PROPOSAL.

IT'S NOT A LIABILITY FOR US.

IF YOU GO BACK TO 2006 WHEN WE

HAD THE STOPOVER SPENDING EFFORT

IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER TO US

HOW IT GOT THERE.

WE'RE GOING TO VOTE WHAT IS IN

FRONT OF US.

>> IF A PROPOSAL IS ON THE

BALLOT.

IT'S OUR JOB.

>> BUT HOW ABOUT HAVING HIM FUND

IT?

>> I DIDN'T SAY THAT.

>> WHY MIGHT IT BE?

>> THERE WAS ONE SPECIFIC

INDIVIDUAL THAT PUT A LOT OF

FUNDING FOR IT.

THAT MAY BE A NEGATIVE FOR SOME

PEOPLE.

STOPOVER IT WAS OUT OF STATE

GROUP THAT CAME IN.

I THINK THAT SOME GROUPS REACT

TO THAT NEGATIVELY AND SOME

VOTERS MAY.

>> LAST YEAR THE CENSUS THEY GOT

A $1 BILLION TAX CUT AND TAX

INCREASES FOR INDIVIDUALS.

THAT COULDN'T HAPPEN UNDER

PROPOSAL 5.

WOULD THAT BE A BAD THING?

>> IT WOULD BE.

I HAVE HAD THE QUESTION PUT TO

ME, IF WE HAD PROPOSAL 5 IN

PLACE YOU WOULD HAVE GOTTEN RID

OF THE MICHIGAN BUSINESS TAX AND

GONE TO THE NEW TAX SYSTEM.

I BELIEVE PROBABLY NOT.

IF YOU GO BACK TO THE VOTED.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR CAST THE TIE

BREAKING VOTED.

>> Tim: WHY WERE SUPPORTING IT?

>> THAT WAS THEN AND THIS IS

NOW.

HERE WE HAVE A SITUATION WHERE

WE THINK WE HAVE MADE GREAT

PROGRESS IN THE BUSINESS TAX

CLIMATE IN THE STATE.

NOW, WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT IT

BEING JEOPARDIZED.

>> YOU HAVE A REPUBLICAN

GOVERNOR AND A LEGISLATURE THAT

IS LIKELY TO BE REPUBLICAN.

WHAT ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT?

>> WELL, HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT

THESE THINGS DO EASTBOUND AND

FLOW.

I GO BACK BEING IN THIS DOWN TOO

LONG.

I REMEMBER IN THE ENGLER

ADMINISTRATION WE HAD SO MUCH

MONEY WE DIDN'T EVEN KNOW WHAT

TO DO WITH IT.

YOU WERE THERE.

AT THAT POINT IT WAS PA FIGHT

OVER WHICH TAX CUT HOW LOW DO WE

MAKE THE INCOME TAX.

OUR CONCERN IS EVEN WITH THE

FISCAL RESPONSIBILITIES SHOWN BY

THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION AND

LEGISLATURE, WITHIN A FEW YEARS

OR MORE, WE COULD BE BACK INTO A

SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE

SURPLUSES.

WE LOOK AH THE LITTLE SURPLUS.

>> Tim: THEN YOU DON'T HAVE TO

WOULD WORRY ABOUT A TAX HIKE?

>> BUT THE TEMPTATION TO SPEND

RISES AGAIN.

THAT LEADS AT SOME POINT THE

SURPLUS IS SPENT AND THEN WE

HEAD INTO A DEFICIT.

>> Tim: HOW ABOUT ON THE OUTSIDE

LOOKING INTO AND EVERYBODY IN

TOWN IS AGAINST THIS PROPOSAL?

>> WE'RE THE ONLY GROUP THAT

SUPPORTS TERM LIMITS.

>> IN CALIFORNIA FOR INSTANCE

THEY HAVE TERM LIMITS.

THEY ALSO HAVE A TWO-THIRDS

AMENDMENT.

HAD A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR FOR

EIGHT YEARS AND THEY STILL HAVE

BEEN CRITICIZED AS BEING THE

WORST MANAGED STATE IN THE

COUNTRY.

THAT HASN'T CHANGED OBVIOUSLY.

HAS THEIR VERSION OF PROPOSAL 5

CONTRIBUTED OR IN YOUR

ESTIMATION IS THERE SOMETHING

ELSE GOING ON?

>> THERE IS SOMETHING ELSE GOING

ON.

IF YOU ARE REFERRING TO PROP 13.

THERE WAS PROPOSAL IT WAS 111

THAT WAS PASSED IN 2000.

WITHOUT GETTING INTO DETAIL IT

WAS SUPPOSE TO THAT THE GASOLINE

TAX BUT THERE WAS A THING THAT

MOVED THE LIMIT WHICH WAS A

SPENDING LIMITATION.

WHEN THEY SLIPPED OUT THE LIMIT,

IT STRIPPED OUT THE SPENDING

RESTRICTIONS.

AFTER THAT HAD OCCURRED IN 2000

WAS 30% INCREASE IN SPENDING

UNDER BOTH GRAY DAVIS AND ARNOLD

SCHWARZENEGGER, A REPUBLICAN.

THIS ISN'T A PARTY ISSUE.

>> WHAT IF TWO YEARS FROM NOW

THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, NEVER

KNOW, WE WANT TO CHANGE THIS TAX

AGAIN.

HOW ARE WE GOING TO DO THAT?

>> WE HAVE TO GET TWO-THIRDS.

>> HOW ARE YOU GOING TO DO THAT?

>> LET'S GO BACK TO COLORADO, A

TAX BILL OF RIGHTS.

PEOPLE SAID IT WAS A BAD IDEA.

I BELIEVE THEY PASSED THAT IN

1992.

IN 2005 A CASE, THE GOVERNOR AND

LEGISLATURE MADE A INDICATES TO

THE PEOPLE THAT THEY NEEDED THAT

SPENDING LIMIT RAISED OR THEY

NEEDED IT EX EMPTIED SO THEY

COULD BALANCE THEIR BUDGET.

THEY MADE A GOOD CASE TO THE

PEOPLE.

THE PEOPLE RESPONDED AND THEY

OVERRODE THE SPENDING LIMIT.

>> 13 SENATORS CAN BLOCK THE

POLICY THAT THE MAJORITY MAY

WANT?

>> THAT IS ABSOLUTELY CORRECT

BUT AGAIN, THAT GOES HAND IN

HAND WITH OUR BELIEF THAT YOU

NEED A HIGHER TLRB HOLD TO

INCREASE TAXES.

>> Tim: WHY IS MAJORITY RULE IS

NOT OKAY WHEN IT COMES TO TAXES

WHEN THAT IS ESSENCE OF OUR

DEMOCRACY?

>> IT'S BECAUSE IT'S TOO EASY.

>> LOOK AT THE FIGHT WE HAD IN

2007.

YOU ALMOST HAD FIST FIGHTS ON

THE FLOOR.

IT HASN'T BEEN EXTREMELY EASY TO

RAISE TAXES HERE?

>> NO, BUT IN 2007 WE ENDED UP

WITH A INCOME TAX OFF AND 25

SURCHARGE ON BUSINESS TAX AND I

THINK IT WAS OVER TWO HOURS.

AGAIN WITH A TWO-THIRDS

REQUIREMENT A LOT OF THAT

WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED.

>> LET ME COME BACK TO YOUR

QUESTION.

LET'S ASSUME THAT THE MICHIGAN

BUSINESS TAX WAS STILL HERE.

NOW THIS PROPOSAL CAME UP.

THEN WHEN WE SURVEYED OUR

MEMBERS, I WOULD MAKE THE

CASE -- BECAUSE WE DO A PRO AND

CON ARGUMENT AND OUR MEMBERS

VOTE -- I WOULD HAVE MADE THE

ARGUMENT WITH THIS IN PLACE, YOU

WILL BE STUCK WITH A MICHIGAN

BUSINESS TAX.

>> Tim: WHAT WE HAVE HAPPENED TO

THE NUMBERS?

>> I THINK THE NUMBERS WOULD

HAVE SHIFTED.

WHEN MEMBERS ARE OPINING THE

SINGLE BUSINESS TAX TO COME BACK

YOU KNOW YOU HAVE A BAD

SITUATION.

>> THE LEGISLATURE COULD PASS

RESOLUTION SUPPORT A TAX

INCREASE FOR VOTERS TO DECIDE?

>> CORRECT.

>> WOULD YOUR GROUP RUN A

CAMPAIGN FOR THAT?

>> IT DEPENDS.

I WOULD HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE

NATURE OF THE TAX INCREASE AND

THE REASONS WE WOULD SUPPORT IT.

I DON'T KNOW.

>> WHAT ABOUT SPENDING ON IT?

>> I THINK THE STOP OVER STENGD.

>> Tim: ARE YOU GOING TO RUN

COMMERCIALS FOR A YES VOTE ON

THIS?

>> NO.

>> Tim: THERE WILL BE NO ADS AT

ALL?

>> NO.

>> ARE YOU PART OF A COALITION

THERE WILL BE SPENDING?

>> THERE WILL BE SPENDING.

>> IT WILL COME FROM MR. MARUN?

>> IT MAY.

>> Tim: IS THAT TRUE ON OR IS

THAT YOUR GUT TALKING?

>> THAT IS MY GUT TALKING.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER

PROPOSALS WHO IS GOING TO PAYING

THERE?

>> I THINK THE BUSINESS

COMMUNITIES, YOU'VE HEARD THE

NUMBERS BETWEEN $30-50 MILLION

BEING RAISED BY ORGANIZED LABOR.

>> Tim: I HAVE TO GET OUT OF

HERE.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

DON'T FORGET WE HAVE GENE KLEM

WILL BE SITTING ON THAT CHAIR.

SEE YOU NEXT WEEK FOR "OFF THE

RECORD".

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