>> FUNDING FOR OVERHEARD WITH
EVAN SMITH IS PROVIDED IN PART
BY MFI FOUNDATION, IMPROVING THE
QUALITY OF LIFE WITHIN OUR
COMMUNITY.
AND FROM THE TEXAS BOARD OF
LEGAL SPECIALIZATION, BOARD
CERTIFIED ATTORNEYS IN YOUR
COMMUNITY.
EXPERIENCED, RESPECTED AND
TESTED.
ALSO BY HILCO PARTNERS, TEXAS
GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS CONSULTANCY,
AND ITS GLOBAL HEALTHCARE
CONSULTING BUSINESS UNIT, HILCO
HEALTH.
AND BY THE ALICE KLEBERG
REYNOLDS FOUNDATION, AND VIEWERS
LIKE YOU.
THANK YOU.
>> I'M EVAN SMITH.
THEY'RE VETERAN POLITICAL
REPORTERS WHO HAVE MASTERED THE
ART OF THE SCOOP-FILLED
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.
THEIR BEST TELLING TOME "GAME
CHANGE," THEIR FOLLOW-UP ON THE
2012 RACE, "DOUBLE DOWN" IS NOW
IN STORES.
THEY'RE JOHN HEILEMANN AND MARK
HALPERIN, THIS IS OVERHEARD.
>> I GUESS WE CAN'T FIRE HIM
NOW.
>> I GUESS WE CAN'T FIRE HIM
NOW.
IT WOULD BE NICE THAT I WIN AN
EMMY.
BEING ON THE SUPREME COURT WAS
AN IMPROBABLE DREAM.
IT'S HARD WORK, AND IT'S
CONTROVERSIAL.
>> IT'S JOURNALISTS WHO PROVIDE
THAT.
>> WINDOW ROLLS DOWN AND A GUY
SAYS, HEY, HE GOES TILL 11:00.
[LAUGHTER].
>> MARK, JOHN, WELCOME.
>> GREAT TO BE HERE.
>> NICE TO
HAVE YOU BACK.
CONGRATULATIONS.
NO. 3 ON THE HARD SELLER BEST
DEBUT, NO. 1 eBOOK IN AMERICA.
>> VICTORY.
GREAT SUCCESS.
>> THANK YOU.
>> THIS IS A FANTASTIC BOOK IN
WHICH WE LEARN SO MUCH MORE THAN
WE THOUGHT WE KNEW AT THE TIME,
JUST LIKE THE LAST ONE.
SOMETHING I GUESS WE DID KNOW AT
THE TIME, BUT IS REINFORCED AS I
READ THE BOOK, JOHN, IS THIS IS
AN ELECTION BETWEEN TWO FLAWED
CANDIDATES. I GUESS EVERY
ELECTION, TO SOME DEGREE, IS AN
ELECTION BETWEEN TWO FLAWED
CANDIDATES, BUT IT REALLY SEEMED
IN THIS CASE THAT EITHER OF
THESE GUYS COULD HAVE LOST THIS
RACE.
>> PRESIDENT OBAMA'S LEAD WAS
SMALL BUT DURABLE THROUGHOUT.
GOVERNOR ROMNEY IS A FASCINATING
CHARACTER THAT COMES THROUGH IN
THIS BOOK.
REALLY, THE PICTURE OF ROMNEY SO
MUCH AT ODDS WITH WHAT SO MANY
PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY DEMOCRATS AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE HOUSE,
THOUGHT OF ROMNEY.
HE'S REALLY AMBIVALENCE
INCARNATE THROUGHOUT THE BOOK.
47%, WHEN HE'S CHALLENGED, HE
DOESN'T HAVE THE WILL OF THE
RESOLVE AND THE ENERGY TO GO OUT
AND CONFRONT THOSE CHALLENGES,
HE'S ALMOST PASSIVE ABOUT IT
WHEN HE'S HIT IN THESE MOMENTS
WHEN HE REALLY SHOULD BE
MARSHALLING ALL OF HIS FORCES.
IT'S KIND OF AN AMAZING PICTURE
IN SOME WAY BECAUSE IT'S NOT AT
ALL WHAT MOST PEOPLE THOUGHT.
>> THE CONFIDENCE HE MAY LACK IN
HIMSELF IS MET BY THE CONFIDENCE
OTHERS LACK IN HIM ALL
THROUGHOUT HIS NOMINATIONS, EVEN
WHEN IT SEEMS INEVITABLE,
THERE'S STILL AN EFFORT BY SOME
PEOPLE TO GO FIND SOMEBODY ELSE.
THEY THINK, WHETHER IT'S DONORS
OR POLITICAL PROFESSIONALS, HE
MAY NOT REALLY BE UP TO THE
TASK.
>> WHAT'S INTERESTING TO US, THE
GROUP THAT WAS LOOKING FOR
SOMEONE ELSE FOR THE MOST PART
WOULD BE PEOPLE THAT WOULD BE
CHARTER MEMBERS OF THE MITT
ROMNEY FAN CLUB.
>> RIGHT.
>> HE DID SERVE ONLY ONE TERM AS
GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS.
BASED ON HIS RESUME AND HIS
BEARING, YOU WOULD THINK THAT
OTHER ELITE RICH PEOPLE WOULD BE
ALL FOR HIM.
WE WRITE ABOUT A GROUP OF
MILLIONAIRES AND BILLIONAIRES
TRY TO GET CHRIS CHRISTIE IN THE
RUNNING.
MITT ROMNEY IS IN A WAR WITH
RICK SANTORUM.
WE'RE EITHER GOING TO GET RICK
SANTORUM AS THEIR NOMINEE OR A
VERY WEAK MITT ROMNEY AND THEY
THINK CAN WE GET SOMEONE ELSE
IN.
THAT GROUP INCLUDED HAILEY
BARBER, IT INCLUDED JOHN
BOEHNER, THE SPEAKER OF THE
HOUSE, AND IT INCLUDED PAUL
RYAN, WHO JUST A FEW MONTHS
LATER WOULD BECOME MITT ROMNEY'S
RUNNING MATE.
>> RIGHT.
>> THESE OVERTURES, JOHN, THAT
MARK IS REFERRING TO, WE HEARD A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT OUT IN THE
GEN POP, THE CHRISTIE APPROACH
TO THESE FOLKS WAS REMARKABLE
BECAUSE AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT
CHRIS CHRISTIE KIND OF LOOKED AT
THE RACE, YOU SPEND A LOT OF
TIME REFERRING TO AS HAMLET OF
DRUM SWACKET.
HE'S WATCHING UP TO THE -- HE'S
WALKING UP TO THE EDGE OF BEING
MARIO PLOMO IN THIS RACE,
ULTIMATELY DECIDES NOT TO RUN.
BUT CHRIS CHRISTIE WAS LOOKING
AT THIS FAIRLY LATE INTO IT.
>> MUCH MORE CLOSER THAN ANYBODY
THOUGHT AND MUCH MORE CLOSER
THAN HE EVER ADMITTED UNTIL THE
DAY HE ANNOUNCED HE WASN'T GOING
TO DO IT.
UP UNTIL THAT MOMENT, HE KEPT
SAYING NOTHING'S CHANGED,
NOTHING'S CHANGED, IN FACT, IN
PRIVATE, HE'S ON THE PHONE WITH
GEORGE W. BUSH, HE'S ON THE
PHONE WITH BARBARA BUSH, HE'S
MEETING WITH DONORS, THE FOUNDER
OF HOME DEPOT, HE'S MEETING AT
HIS HOUSE WITH CARL ROWE TO GO
THROUGH THE STEPS OF WHAT IT
WOULD TAKE.
HE'S DOING A LOT OF STUFF, GOING
PUBLICLY TO THE REAGAN LIBRARY
AND GETTING SPEECH THERAPY, HE'S
DOING A LOT OF RECON FOR A GUY
THAT SAYS HE'S NOT AT ALL
GETTING IN THE RACE.
AND THEN HE SAYS HE'S GOING TO
DECIDE THIS WEEKEND.
AND THEN AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, HE STILL HASN'T MADE UP
HIS MIND.
HE STILL NEEDS ONE MORE DAY WITH
HIS MIND TO TELL HIM, MAYBE THIS
COULD WORK, AND HIS GUT THAT
TELLS HIM, I'M NOT SURE I'M
READY FOR THIS.
>> THE FACT THAT HE'S
CONSIDERING IT IS BORN OF ANGST,
MY FAVORITE THING OF THE ENTIRE
BOOK, AS I'VE SHARED WITH YOU,
WHEN GOVERNOR CHRIS CHRISTIE
DECIDES NOT TO RUN, HE BRINGS
THE ROMNEYS TO HIS HOUSE TO TELL
THEM HE'S GIVING THEM HIS PRIZED
ENDORSEMENT IN THE RACE.
GOVERNOR CHRIS CHRISTIE SAYS I
DO KNOW HOW BIG THIS IS.
AND I THOUGHT THIS GUY, I HOPE
THIS GUY RUNS, TO SEE THIS GUY
AND RICK PERRY, FOR INSTANCE, IN
A RACE TOGETHER KNOCKING HEADS
WOULD BE SOMETHING ELSE.
>> WELL, PART OF WHAT THE TIMING
OF GOVERNOR CHRIS CHRISTIE
INTENSE CONSIDERATION OF THIS
WAS AROUND THE TIME
GOVERNOR PERRY GOT IN.
HE DIDN'T THINK MUCH OF
GOVERNOR PERRY AND HE THOUGHT
ROMNEY WOULD PROBABLY BE THE
NOMINEE, BUT THE FACT THAT
GOVERNOR PERRY WAS BEING THOUGHT
OF AS SUCH A SERIOUS CANDIDATE
REALLY GOT UNDER HIS SKIN.
HE THOUGHT IF THIS IS GOING TO
BE THE BIG DOG IN THIS RACE,
MAYBE I SHOULD RUN.
IF A GROUP OF PEOPLE, NOT VERY
BIG, BUT, YOU KNOW, RECOGNIZABLE
WHO THINK SOME DAY I'M GOING TO
RUN FOR PRESIDENT, AND THE
QUESTION THEY ALWAYS FACE IS, IS
THIS MY TIME?
CAN I WAIT FOUR MORE YEARS?
IN THIS CASE, CHRIS CHRISTIE
DECIDES HE COULD WAIT FOUR MORE
YEARS.
>> : I THINK JOHN IS CORRECT,
WHEN YOU GET INTO THE RACE AT
THAT POINT, PRESIDENT OBAMA IS
THE PRESUMPTIVE FAVORITE.
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY, THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND SO MANY
OTHER THINGS COMING OUT OF THE
DEBT CEILING DEBACLE OF 2011.
HE WAS THE BEATABLE INCUMBENT,
RIGHT?
>> ABSOLUTELY BEATABLE.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT THE
PRESIDENT FACED IN TERM OF THE
WRONG TRACK PEOPLE THINKING OF
THE COUNTRY, HE'S ON THE WRONG
TRACK, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE,
THINGS GOT A LITTLE BIT BETTER,
THE PERCEPTIONS AND THE
STATISTICS GOT A LITTLE BIT
BETTER TOWARDS THE ECONOMY
TOWARDS THE END.
BUT TO THE END OF 2012, I THINK
IT'S PRETTY CLEAR THAT A
STRONGER CANDIDATE WOULD HAVE AT
LEAST MADE IT A HIGHLY
COMPETITIVE RACE, MAYBE TAKING
TRADITIONAL STATES, VIRGINIA.
>> HAD YOU MADE THIS A CAMPAIGN
LITIGATED ABOUT THAT AS OPPOSED
TO ANOTHER SUBJECT.
JOHN, WE'RE USED TO THE
PRESIDENT'S SIGNATURE PHRASE, A
PHRASE THAT'S BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH HIM, "I GOT THIS." THE
PRESIDENT'S COOL UNDER FIRE.
THERE WERE MANY MOMENTS, NOT
JUST THAT FIRST DEBATE IN
DENVER, WHERE THE PRESIDENT
DIDN'T SEEM TO HAVE VERY MUCH OF
ANYTHING AS A CAMPAIGNER, WE
WERE USED TO THE 2008 OBAMA.
THE 2012 OBAMA WAS MUCH LESS
CONFIDENT.
>> I THINK THAT'S TRUE.
THERE WERE TWO BIG MOMENTS,
PUTTING ASIDE THE DEBATES YOU
TALKED A MINUTE AGO WHEN HE WAS
AT HIS MOST VULNERABLE, YOU
KNOW, THE PRESIDENT'S GOING
THROUGH THIS SERIES OF MEETINGS
WITH HIS SENIOR ADVISERS, AND
THEY REALLY ARE KIND OF AMAZING.
WE DETAILED THEM MEETING BY
MEETING, BECAUSE THEY ARE IN A
LOT OF WAYS -- ONE PERSON IN THE
MEETING DESCRIBES THEM WHERE THE
PRESIDENT IS JUST JUST LAYING
OUT STRATEGIES AND TACTICS,
GOING THROUGH, REMAKES THIS LONG
LIST OF REGRETS IN OFFICE, THIS
IS A GUY WHO'S SEARCHING, HE'S
NEVER REALLY SUFFERED ANYTHING
LIKE THESE KIND OF SETBACKS.
HE'S REALLY TRYING TO FIGURE OUT
WHAT HAVE I DONE, VERY UNCERTAIN
OF HIS FOOTING.
AND AT THAT TIME, THE REST OF
THE CAMPAIGN, EVEN WHEN THEY'RE
KIND OF AN -- ANNIHILATING ON
NEGATIVE ADDS.
>> EVEN ONE OF THOSE THINGS,
VERY FRUSTRATED WITH THAT.
>> THE REALITY, JOHN, HE HAS
BEEN A CONTRADICTION IN A LOT OF
WAYS.
HE SAYS I WANT TO RUN A POSITIVE
CAMPAIGN, BUT HE RAN THE MOST
NEGATIVE ADS IN 2008 I GUESS
IT'S SAID OF ANY CANDIDATE EVER,
AND IN 2012, THEY TRIED TO TAKE
OUT, AND I GUESS ULTIMATELY TOOK
OUT, ROMNEY OUT OF THE REALM OF
PLAUSIBILITY AS HE WAS THE
MASTER OF NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN.
SO FOR ALL OF HIS TALK OF NOT
BEING COMFORTABLE WITH IT, IT
WAS A SUCCESSFUL TACTIC.
>> YOU'RE RIGHT, IN 2008, HE RAN
TONS AND TONS OF NEGATIVE ADS
BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE
RATIO, AS MUCH NEGATIVE AS THERE
WAS IN 2008, THERE WAS ALSO THIS
WHOLE POSITIVE ASPIRATIONAL
SIDE.
>> TEAR DOWN MITT ROMNEY.
A MEASURE, MARK, THAT YOU
REVEALED IN THE BOOK, IN FACT,
WHEN THE BOOK WAS FIRST IN
PEOPLE'S HANDS, MAYBE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN YOU-ALL
INTENDED FOR IT TO BE, AND THERE
WAS NEWS FROM THE BOOK, IT WAS
RELATED TO EXACTLY WHAT SORT OF
A SITUATION THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN
THOUGHT THEY WERE IN THAT BILL
DAILY, THEN THE CHIEF OF STAFF,
AND SOME OF THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN
STAFF APPARENTLY POLLED SWAPPING
OUT JOE BIDEN FOR HILARY CLINTON
AS A RUNNING MATE IN 2012 MIGHT
BE A DESIRABLE IDEA, BUT IT
MIGHT BE A NECESSARY THING TO
PULL THE PRESIDENT OVER THE LINE
SO UNCERTAIN WERE THEY ABOUT
THIS ELECTION.
>> THEY COULDN'T ASSUME THAT IT
WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENED
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE.
>> YEAH.
>> AND THE PRESIDENT FELT
OBLIGATED TO LOOK AT EVERYTHING.
BILL DAILY, WHO WAS THEN THE
CHIEF OF STAFF, HAS KNOWN JOE
BIDEN FOR A COUPLE OF DECADES,
THEY'RE VERY CLOSE, BILL DAILY
WAS THE LEADER IN SAYING WE OWE
IT TO THE PRESIDENT TO LOOK AT
THIS.
THEY KNEW THERE WOULD BE A
DOWNSIDE, YOU REPLACE A RUNNING
MATE IN A SITUATION LIKE THAT,
IT'S GOING TO APPEAR WEAK AND
MAYBE PANICKY, BUT IF
HILARY CLINTON WILL BOOST US IN
SOME WAY IN THE POLLS, WE'VE GOT
TO LOOK AT IT.
WE SAY IN THE BOOK IN THIS
POLITICAL TEAM IT WAS BETTER TO
BE HARDHEADED THAN SOFTHEARTED.
AND IF IT EVER CAME OUT, AS IT
DID WHEN OUR BOOK CAME OUT, THAT
BIDEN'S FEELINGS WOULD BE HURT.
PEOPLE DON'T VOTE FOR THE BOTTOM
OF THE TICKET, AND WHATEVER
POPULARITY, HILARY CLINTON
DIDN'T BOOST IT THAT MUCH.
>> JUST THE FACT THAT THEY
CONSIDERED IT, PUT MONEY ON IT.
>> IT SHOWS YOU, A, HOW
DESPERATE THEY ARE, AND, B,
AGAIN, HOW KIND OF CUT-THROAT
THEY ARE, TAKE TO THE PRESIDENT
THE NOTION MAYBE WE'VE GOT TO
REPLACE YOUR FRIEND JOE BIDEN
WHO YOU'VE BASICALLY ALREADY
PROMISED YOU'RE GOING TO RUN
WITH.
>> HOW DID SOMETHING LIKE THAT
NOT GET OUT AT THE TIME?
THIS BOOK CONTAINS SO MANY
THINGS, WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE
BOOK IN A FEW MINUTES.
BUT THERE WERE SO MANY THINGS IN
THIS BOOK, AND THIS WAS AT THE
TOP OF THE PYRAMID, TO THINK IN
THIS WORLD WHERE THERE ARE NO
SECRETS, WHERE EVERYBODY LEAKS,
THERE ARE A THOUSAND WAYS TO
LEARN SOMETHING THAT NEVER
EXISTED BEFORE, HOW DOES
SOMETHING NOT GET OUT?
>> WELL, IN THAT CASE, YOU WILL
RECALL, EVAN, THERE WAS A RUMOR
ABOUT IT.
PEOPLE WILL GO ON CABLE AND
SPECULATE, THIS MIGHT BE A GOOD
IDEA, MAYBE IT'S ON THE TABLE.
AND THE WHITE HOUSE DENIED IT UP
AND DOWN, WHICH, OF COURSE, ONLY
MADE US MORE INTERESTED IN
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WAS SOMETHING THERE.
IT WAS A PRETTY CLOSELY GUARDED
SECRET WITHIN A VERY SMALL GROUP
OF PEOPLE.
THIS WAS LIKE ONLY A HANDFUL OF
PEOPLE WHO KNEW ABOUT IT BECAUSE
IT WAS SO SENSITIVE.
>> NOW A COMPARABLE EXAMPLE ON
THE OTHER SIDE WOULD ACTUALLY BE
THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL
DELIBERATIONS ON THE OTHER SIDE.
YOU ALL PROVIDE AN EXTRAORDINARY
AMOUNT OF DETAIL ON THE VETTING
OF CANDIDATES, FIRST THE LIST OF
11, THEN DOWN TO THE LIST OF
FIVE.
THIS IDEA THAT IT WAS CALLED
PROJECT GOLDFISH AFTER THE SNACK
CRACKERS, AND THEN EACH OF THE
FIVE FINALISTS FOR THE VICE
PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
ALONGSIDE ROMNEY ALL HAD CODE
NAMES.
>> THEY WERE TERRIFIC, REALLY
KIND OF GREAT, ALMOST OBVIOUS,
WINCE, KIND OF CODE NAMES.
PAUL RYAN WAS FISHCONSIN.
>> THEY HAD A CODE NAME FOR YOU,
TOO.
>> I'M NOW UNDONE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS INTERVIEW.
>> THE BEST ONE WAS
CHRIS CHRISTIE WAS PUFFER FISH.
>> THIS IS AFTER WE FIND OUT
EARLIER IN THE BOOK THAT THE
NICKNAME FOR CHRIS CHRISTIE IS
BIG BOY.
BUSH 43'S NICKNAME OF
CHRIS CHRISTIE IS BIG BOY.
THEN THEY HAVE THE VICE
PRESIDENTIAL SWEEPSTAKES AND HIS
CODE NAME IS PUFFER FISH.
KIND OF GREAT.
YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP.
>> VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION
PROCESS IS ALWAYS INTERESTING,
AND IT'S ANOTHER CASE EVERY
POLITICAL REPORTER IN THE
COUNTRY IS TRYING TO BREAK THIS.
IMAGINE IF SOMEBODY WOULD HAVE
REPORTED IN THE CAMPAIGN THAT
CHRIS CHRISTIE'S NICKNAME WAS
PUFFER FISH.
THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN QUITE A
THING.
>> THE VETTING OF CHRIS CHRISTIE
AS A POTENTIAL NOMINEE WHICH
THEY DID AND DID NOT GET ACCESS
TO, I WOULD ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO
READ ABOUT THAT.
ROB PORTMAN'S DECISION TO BE
VETTED, EVEN THOUGH HE WAS
CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACT ON
HIS SON WHO AT THE TIME WAS NOT
KNOWN NATIONALLY TO BE GAY, ONLY
ON HIS COLLEGE CAMPUS AND
FAMILY.
AND ROB PORTMAN'S DECISION TO
SWITCH HIS POSITION ON SAME-SEX
MARRIAGE BECAUSE OF HIS SON.
>> GREAT HUMAN STORY.
>> ALL ON THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL
STUFF IS NEW STUFF THAT YOU
WOULD HAVE IMAGINED IN THIS
WORLD WOULD HAVE COME OUT.
>> WE HAVE ENJOYED IN BOTH OF
OUR BOOKS FOCUSING ON VICE
PRESIDENTIAL VETTING.
THEY'RE ALL EXAMPLES OF THE SAME
THINGS, IN BOTH -- THE SAME
PHENOMENON, WHICH IS THAT WE
HAVE THIS INCREDIBLY SPED UP
MEDIA ECOLOGY THAT WE LIVE IN
WHERE THE METABOLISM IN THE
MEDIA MOVES SO FAST.
PEOPLE FOCUS ON SUCH A VERY
BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME, ONE OF THE
THINGS THAT WE BRING REALLY IS
JUST TIME.
>> AND IT'S THE SAME FOCUS,
RIGHT?
>> WE HAVE TIME, SUSTAINED
FOCUS, INTERVIEWS, MANY OF THEM
DONE AFTER ELECTION DAY.
THERE'S NOBODY ON THE WORLD
TODAY WHO'S ON TWITTER, ON
NEWSPAPER, ON TELEVISION IS
GOING BACK AND ASKING PEOPLE
ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED SIX MONTHS
AGO.
>> WE GO BACK, IT'S SIX MONTHS
LATER, WE'RE STILL TALKING TO
PEOPLE ABOUT THESE THINGS, OVER
AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN. IT'S
REALLY JUST A MATTER OF AS MUCH
AS PERSPIRATION AS IT IS
ANYTHING ELSE, JUST HAVING THE
TIME.
>> AT THE SAME TIME, PEOPLE ARE
ON TO YOU NOW.
FOUR YEARS AGO BEFORE "GAME
CHANGE," THE KIND OF BOOK YOU
WROTE ULTIMATELY HAD BEEN
WRITTEN IN SOME WAYS BEFORE.
THERE WAS THE CLASSIC NEWSWEEK
"LET'S REPORT THE CAMPAIGN," BUT
NOT ACTUALLY REPORT IT UNTIL
AFTER THE FACT, THAT'S THE
AGREEMENT, AND THEN THEY COME
OUT WITH THIS THING.
BUT "GAME CHANGE" WAS SORT OF
THE VERY BEST AND THE MOST
SUCCESSFUL OF THOSE.
IS IT HARDER FOR YOU, PEOPLE WHO
SAW THE LAST BOOK, WERE THERE
PEOPLE MORE RELUCTANT TO TALK TO
YOU?
TALK ABOUT THIS TIME VERSUS LAST
TIME.
>> IT WAS ALMOST EXACTLY THE
SAME IN TERMS OF HOW HARD IT
WAS.
>> YEAH.
>> WIDESPREAD EXTENSIVE
COOPERATION FROM PEOPLE IN BOTH
PARTIES.
>> : RIGHT.
>> THE THINGS THAT CAUSED PEOPLE
TO COOPERATE WITH US THE FIRST
TIME WERE ALL STILL THE CASE,
INCLUDING OR LONG-STANDING
PROFESSIONAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH
PEOPLE IN BOTH PARTIES.
>> YEP.
>> AND A RESPECT FOR THEIR TIME
AND FOR WHAT THEY DID IN PUTTING
THEIR HEART AND SOUL INTO
WHATEVER CAMPAIGN THEY WORKED ON
OR FOR THE CANDIDATES' CAMPAIGNS
THEY RAN.
WE HAD VERY FEW PEOPLE DECLINE
TO PARTICIPATE.
>> OF COURSE, THAT'S THE UP
VERSION.
THE MORE CYNICAL VERSION IS
PEOPLE WANT THEIR VERSION OF THE
STORY OUT THERE.
SO IN SOME RESPECT, THEY'RE
MOTIVATED TO TELL THEIR VERSION
OF THE STORY.
>> HONESTLY, THE QUESTIONS OF
THE MOTIVATIONS OF WHY PEOPLE
TALK TO US, IT'S ALMOST BESIDE
THE POINT.
IN JOURNALISM, WHATEVER
JOURNALISM YOU DO, DAILY,
MONTHLY, WEEKLY, BROADCAST,
ELECTRONIC, WHAT YOU'RE DOING IS
SORTING AMONG ALL KINDS OF
MOTIVATIONS.
THAT'S WHAT YOU DO.
THAT'S WHAT WE'RE ABOUT.
THAT'S WHAT OUR JOB IS.
>> RIGHT.
>> IT'S TRYING TO FIGURE OUT
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED,
REGARDLESS OF WHAT PEOPLE'S
MOTIVATIONS FOR TELLING YOU.
IF THEY TELL YOU SOMETHING, IT'S
TRUE; IF THEY TELL YOU SOMETHING
IS FALSE, IT'S FALSE.
AND OUR JOB IS TO FIGURE THAT
OUT.
>> THE VOLUME OF THE INTERVIEWS
ARE OBVIOUSLY QUANTITATIVELY
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT JOURNALISMS
ARE ABLE TO DO THESE DAYS.
IF YOU ARE INTERVIEWING SOMEBODY
EIGHT TIMES, AFTER A SENSE
YOU'RE GOING TO GET A SENSE IF
WHETHER THEIR STORY MATCHES UP.
THAT QUANTITY OF INTERVIEWS JUST
MAKES THAT POSSIBLE.
>> WHAT IS THE TAKE-AWAY FROM
THIS BOOK?
SO IF SOMEBODY WHO IS COMING TO
THIS BOOK, THEY PAID SOME
ATTENTION TO THE CAMPAIGN BUT
THEY NOW WANT TO UNDERSTAND WHAT
THE LESSON OF THIS CAMPAIGN IS
THROUGH THE LENS OF YOUR BOOK.
>> WELL, BOILING IT DOWN TO ONE
IS HARD, IT'S KIND OF THE SAME
LESSON AS LAST ONE, WHICH
RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IS AN
EXTRAORDINARY HUMAN ENDEAVOR
THAT REQUIRES A LOT OF SKILL AND
A GOOD MEASURE OF LUCK.
>> SAME.
DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?
>> I WOULD SAY THE MAIN LESSON
OF THIS BOOK -- THERE'S TWO.
>> YES.
>> ONE IS THAT -- LET THE RECORD
SHOW I RESTRICTED MYSELF TO ONE.
>> YOU DID.
>> ONE IS THAT YOU REALLY OUGHT
TO GET SLEEP.
SLEEP IS CRUCIAL.
ALMOST EVERY BIG MISTAKE -- I
THINK IN LIFE.
EVERY BIG MISTAKE MADE IN THE
BOOK IS MADE BY A CANDIDATE IS
BECAUSE THEY'RE OVERTIRED.
THE OTHER IS GOLF.
WE HAD NO IDEA, BUT THERE ARE
APPARENTLY, LIKE, 13 PIVOTAL
GOLF SCENES IN THE BOOK.
WE DIDN'T KNOW WE WERE WRITING A
BOOK ABOUT GOLF, BUT WE WERE.
>> LET ME ASK YOU TO ROLL
FORWARD, YOU HAVE LIVES AS
EXPERT POLITICAL REPORTERS,
COMMENTATORS, YOU PAY ATTENTION
TO THIS STUFF ALL THE TIME.
YOU DIDN'T STOP PAYING ATTENTION
WHEN THE BOOK REPORTING WAS
DONE. THE PRESIDENT IS IN A
WORLD OF HURT RIGHT NOW.
IF THE ELECTION HAD BEEN IN
2013, AS OPPOSED TO 2012, YOU
CAN ALWAYS PLAY THIS GAME, MUCH
MORE CHALLENGING SITUATION FOR
HIM?
HE HAD NOT A VERY GOOD YEAR FOR
A GUY WHO WON ELECTION A YEAR
AGO.
>> TAKE IT BACK TO THE BOOK,
BECAUSE THAT'S MY ANALYSIS. HE
RAN IN A WAY BASICALLY SAYING
THE LAST YEAR OF HIS FIRST TERM
WAS GOING TO BE DEVOTED NOT TO
GETTING ANYTHING DONE, BECAUSE
HE DIDN'T THINK HE COULD WITH
THE REPUBLICANS, BUT TO TRY TO
WIN THE ELECTION, GET A NEW
MANDATE, AND GET THINGS THROUGH.
HE DID IT ALIENATING THE
BUSINESS COMMUNITY AND HE DID IT
IN A WAY THAT DIDN'T LEAVE HIM
THAT CLOSE TO DEMOCRATS IN
CONGRESS.
SO HE STARTS THE TERM IN A VERY
WEAK POSITION.
AND I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR A
WHILE, IF HE CAN'T WRITE THE
SHIP THIS YEAR, THE NOTION THAT
REAL WIN BACK CONTROL OF THE
HOUSE TO THE DEMOCRATS, I THINK,
IS PRETTY LUDICROUS, AND THAT
MEANS HE MAY HAVE A FOUR-YEAR
TERM WHERE NOTHING GETS DONE.
>> THAT'S THE DISCUSSION RIGHT
NOW, THE HEALTHCARE.GOV
SITUATION, AND WE'RE NOT OUT OF
IT, BUT BASICALLY ROLLING OUT OF
IT, HE MAY BE A LAME DUCK NOW
AND UNABLE TO GET ANY BIG --
LOOK WHAT IT'S DOING TO HIS
JUDICIAL NOMINEES AS WE SIT
HERE.
>> THE ONE THING THAT THE WHITE
HOUSE HOLDS ON TO IS THE BEAT OF
THE NEWS CYCLE. SIX WEEKS AGO
REPUBLICANS WENT AFTER THE
SHUTDOWN, AND IT WAS JUST OVER.
THE HEALTHCARE THING HIT IN A
BIG WAY.
NOW OBAMA HAD DEEMED IT
IMPOSSIBLE, THIS WILL HAVE A
SHORTER HALF-LIFE THAN WE THINK,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN GET THE
PROBLEM FIXED WITH HEALTHCARE.
THE COMBINATION OF THE
HEALTHCARE WEBSITE AND THE
THINGS THAT ARE ATTACHED TO
THAT, THE SYSTEMIC ISSUES AROUND
THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM, IF THOSE
THINGS GET FIXED IN A RELATIVELY
TIMELY WAY, I THINK HE CAN STILL
RECOVER.
IF THEY CAN'T, HE'LL BE DONE,
BECAUSE HIS CREDIBILITY NOW IS
SO MUCH AT STAKE.
>> I THINK DOING HEALTHCARE IN A
PARTISAN WAY IS GOING TO GO DOWN
IN HISTORY AS SOMEWHAT AN ERROR
AND MAYBE A GIGANTIC ERROR.
THEY SUGAR-COATED THAT THERE'S
GOING TO BE LOSERS UNDER THIS
REFORM.
>> THERE HAS TO BE.
>> AND AS MORE PEOPLE SEE THEIR
HEALTHCARE CHANGE OR THEIR
PREMIUMS GO UP OR THE OVERALL
COST IN TERMS OF HOW THEIR
HEALTHCARE SPENDING GOES, I
THINK HE'S GOING TO FACE A
NITPICKING BY HIS OPPONENTS THAT
IT'S GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT
TO MAKE THIS SEEM IN THE
SHORT-TERM LIKE A WINNER OF THE
COUNTRY.
>> YOU GUYS WILL END HERE.
DOES IT LEECH INTO 2016? SO
HILARY CLINTON LEAVES THE
ADMINISTRATION AT THE END OF THE
FIRST TERM, SHE'S CHILLING, BUT
OBVIOUSLY SHE'S LOOKING REALLY
HARD BY ALL ACCOUNTS AT RUNNING
IN THE NEXT ELECTION. AND UNTIL
THESE PROBLEMS, THE ASSUMPTION
WAS THAT, YOU KNOW, WHATEVER
HAPPENED IN THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION MIGHT NOT REALLY
LAND AT HER FEET.
DOES THAT CALCULATION, JOHN, NOW
CHANGE?
>> WELL, I THINK YES.
CERTAINLY.
I MEAN, SHE'S GOING TO BE
RUNNING -- IF SHE RUNS, AND IF
SHE BECOMES THE DEMOCRATIC
NOMINEE, THE DIFFICULTY,
HISTORIC DIFFICULTIES OF WINNING
A THIRD CONSECUTIVE TERMS FOR
THE IN-POWER PARTY ARE, YOU
KNOW, HIGH BAR.
>> RIGHT.
>> AND RIGHT NOW, PUT ASIDE
HEALTHCARE, RIGHT NOW, THE
ECONOMY'S GOTTEN A LITTLE
BITTER, BUT THE OVERALL EIGHT
YEARS OF OBAMA MAY NOT BE A
PERIOD THAT ANYONE WILL EVER
LOOK BACK ON AS HAVING BEEN A
PERIOD OF STRONG ECONOMIC
GROWTH. UNEMPLOYMENT IS STILL
ACTUALLY QUITE HIGH.
AND HE -- SHE WAS A MEMBER OF
HIS ADMINISTRATION.
THERE'S STILL, SHE'S -- HER MAIN
THING -- HER LAST JOB WOULD HAVE
BEEN SECRETARY OF STATE FOR
BARACK OBAMA, AND SHE'S GOING TO
BE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THAT.
>> AGREE?
>> I DO.
THE THIRD PARTY IS A TOUGH
THING.
ONE OF THE THINGS THE PRESIDENT
HAS NEVER SOLVED IS WHAT IS THE
OBAMA THEORY ABOUT THE CASE OF
THE ECONOMY.
AND THE ECONOMIC STATISTICS,
UNLESS THERE'S SOME CHANGES,
WILL NOT BE GOOD.
>> FAIRLY LIMPING ALONG.
>> I THINK PEOPLE WANT TO SEE A
PRESIDENT IN THIS AGE WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN ECONOMY,
THAT'S HIS PLAN, THAT'S HIS
THESIS ABOUT HOW THE AMERICAN
ECONOMY SHOULD WORK.
I DON'T THINK HE'S MADE THAT
CASE IN A WAY THAT I COULD
ENUNCIATE, I THINK MOST VOTERS
WOULD FEEL THE SAME WAY.
I THINK THAT'S A DANGER FOR HIM.
AS WELL AS A DANGER FOR THE NEXT
DEMOCRAT. BUT IF THEY'VE GOT A
BETTER WAY TO ENUNCIATE IT, THEN
MAYBE THEY HAVE A CHANCE.
>> ONE BIG THING IN HER FAVOR
WHICH THE REPUBLICAN HAVE DONE
NOTHING, NOTHING, IN THE LAST 12
MONTHS TO CURE THE FUNDAMENTAL
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS THEY HAVE
WITH WINNING A NATIONAL
ELECTION.
>> YEAH.
>> THEY'VE NOT MOVED THE BALL
FORWARD 1 INCH SINCE ELECTION
DAY OF 2012, AND IF THEY ARE AT
STATUS QUO FROM ELECTION DAY
2012, THEY WILL LOSE BIGGER THAN
THEY LOST IN 2012, BECAUSE
THEY'RE JUST STRUCTURALLY
BEDEVILED RIGHT NOW.
>> THE HUNT FOR PUFFER FISH,
WHAT'S THE NAME OF THE BOOK
GOING TO BE?
>> AS YOU STAY IN THE TELEVISION
WORLD, STAY TUNED.
>> THANK YOU, BOTH, FOR COMING
BACK.
GREAT TO SEE YOU BOTH,
PERSONALLY AND PROFESSIONALLY.
JOHN HEILEMANN, JOHN HALPERIN,
THANKS VERY MUCH.
>> THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU.
>> WE'D LOVE TO HAVE YOU JOIN US
IN THE STUDIO.
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
KLRU.ORG/OVERHEARD TO FIND
INVITATIONS TO INTERVIEWS, Q AND
AS OF PAST GUESTS AND AN ARCHIVE
OF PAST EPISODE.
>> CHRIS CHRISTIE PURSUES THE
GUY BRANDISHING AN ICE CREAM
CONE HECKLING HIM, NOT
NECESSARILY THE MOST
PRESIDENTIAL ACT EVER COMMITTED.
>> FUNDING FOR OVERHEARD WITH
EVAN SMITH IS PROVIDED IN PART
BY MFI FOUNDATION, IMPROVING THE
QUALITY OF LIFE WITHIN OUR
COMMUNITY, AND FROM THE TEXAS
BOARD OF LEGAL SPECIALIZATION,
BOARD CERTIFIED ATTORNEYS IN
YOUR COMMUNITY.
EXPERIENCED, RESPECTED AND
TESTED.
ALSO, BY HILCO PARTNERS, TEXAS
GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS CONSULTANCY
AND IT'S GLOBAL HEALTH CARE
CONSULTING BUSINESS UNIT, HILCO
HEALTH, AND BY THE ALICE KLEBERG
REYNOLDS FOUNDATION AND VIEWERS
LIKE YOU.
THANK YOU.
>> NEXT TIME ON OVERHEARD, THE
COAUTHORS OF "DOUBLE DOWN" JOHN
HEILEMANN AND MARK HALPERIN.
>> IF THEY TELL YOU SOMETHING
IT'S TRUE, IT'S TRUE.
IF THEY TOLD YOU SOMETHING WAS
FALSE, IT'S FALSE.
THE THINGS THAT CAUSED PEOPLE TO
COOPERATE WITH US THE FIRST TIME
IS STILL THE CASE, INCLUDING OUR
LONG-STANDING PROFESSIONAL
RELATIONSHIPS IN BOTH PARTIES,
NOT JUST IN THE OBAMA AND ROMNEY
WORLD.