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JUDY WOODRUFF: This weekend,
China's President and
Communist Party General

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Secretary Xi Jinping gave
what is viewed as his most
significant speech of the year.

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He chronicled his
achievements over

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the last decade and charted his
vision for the country's future,

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all as the Communist
Party appears set to
hand him a third term and
further cement his power.

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Nick Schifrin has the story.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: During
the first day of the
National Party Congress,

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General Secretary Xi Jinping
stressed the importance
of improving the standard

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of living for Chinese
citizens and increasing
self-reliance, especially
on high-end technology.

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He praised China's response to
the COVID pandemic, which relies
on massive widespread lockdowns,

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and Xi emphasized the need
to become more adept at
deploying China's military on a

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regular basis and for the
military to be prepared
for major challenges.

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XI JINPING, Chinese President
(through translator):
We must be mindful of

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potential dangers, be
prepared to deal with the
worst-case scenarios, and be

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ready to withstand the
major challenges of high
winds, choppy waters and
even dangerous storms.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: And for more
on Xi Jinping's speech and the
Party Congress, we turned to

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Christopher Johnson, previously
a China analyst at the
CIA. He now runs his own

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consulting company,
China Strategies Group.

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Chris Johnson, welcome
to the "NewsHour."

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When Xi discusses
worst-case scenarios,when
he talks about headwinds,

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is he preparing China for
a long-term confrontation
with the United States?

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON, China
Strategies Group: Absolutely.

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And, in fact, I think he's
telling us that he sees
war with the United States

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as increasingly likely. And
I think we see two aspects
of this in the speech that he

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delivered to the Congress.
The first is that
longstanding phraseology
in these work reports,

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where China judged
that peace and economic
development not only were

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the dominant global trend, but
also would be an enduring one,
are gone from this report.

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And, instead, they have
been replaced by what
Xi Jinping called a
spirit of struggle, which

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is clearly a throwback
to the 1960s under Mao
Zedong. The other way I
think he's telegraphing

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that is that he's showing
us that the economy is
moving toward what we
might call a fortress

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economy that is less
dependent on the global
order and less dependent
upon the United States.

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He talks a lot in the speech
about self-sufficiency
in technology.

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And that tells us that
he's hardening that system
for -- in preparation for

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that possible coming war
with the United States.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: And he
spent a lot of time on
military modernization.

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Is the vision not only perhaps
some kind of regional war
or confrontation with the

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United States over, say,
Taiwan or the South China
Sea, but a more global one?

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON: Well,
that's a great question.

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And I think we see him through
the defense reforms that he's
been pushing in his second

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term and also through the
type of weapons systems
they're developing. They're
undergoing a massive

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expansion of their
nuclear force. They tested
this hypersonic glide
vehicle last year. All of

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those systems obviously
are designed to threaten
the U.S. mainland and
homeland and to show that

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China is ready for a global
contingency with the United
States, if necessary.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: The largest
tension point, of course,

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between Beijing and Washington
is Taiwan. It has been for
a long time and is today.

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Let's take a listen to
what Xi said about Taiwan.

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XI JINPING (through translator):
Resolving the Taiwan issue
is a matter for the Chinese,

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a matter that must be
resolved by us Chinese
people. We will continue to

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strive for a peaceful
reunification with the greatest
sincerity and the utmost effort.

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But we will never promise to
renounce the use of force.
And we reserve the option

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of taking all measures
necessary. This is directed
only at interference by outside

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forces and the few
separatists who seek Taiwan
independence with their
separatist activities.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: Outside
forces and those who
seek Taiwan independence.

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What message is Xi
Jinping trying to send?

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON: I think
he's telling the United States
primarily, stop messing around

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in the Taiwan issue and abide
more tightly to the One China
policy that has governed U.S.

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approach toward Taiwan
since we reestablished
diplomatic relations
with China in the 1970s.

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He's clearly saying to us,
as long as we continue to
have a One China policy
in the United States,

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and Taiwan doesn't move
toward independence, the
Chinese actually see a
potential military conflict

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with Taiwan as a crisis to
be avoided, rather than an
opportunity to be seized.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: When it comes
to domestic issues, he did
not ease any of the COVID

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zero restrictions, which,
to this day, continue to
leave millions of Chinese
people in lockdown.

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And he reiterated his belief
in a highly centralized
economic control,

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even if that centralization
leads to lower growth
across the country. What

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does that say about his
version of state control 10
years into his second term?

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON: I
think it tells us that he
wants more state control
and more centralization,

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whether it's in the economy and
the COVID zero policy or any
other policy across the board.

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What we're seeing is
a guy who believes
fundamentally in Marxism,

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believes that communism is a
system that can have its own
successes internationally,

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and can defeat the United
States and capitalism
in the longer term.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: About 10 days
ago, the U.S. imposed its
most sweeping export controls,

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trying to prevent China
from purchasing high-end

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technology with any kind of U.S.
factors inside that technology.

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Xi Jinping today, as you
have been discussing,

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talked about self-reliance.
Can those export controls do
what they're designed to do,

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which is set back China's
military and keep the U.S.
technological advantage?

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON: Well, it
can certainly slow them down.

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And I think that's what the
objective of the policies
are. The key question,

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I think, for not only the
United States government,
but our companies, is that,

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if China eventually gets
there on their own in terms
of the ability to produce

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semiconductors -- and, let's
remember, wafer fabrication
is not literal rocket science.

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There are plenty of people
out there who know how to
do it. China will eventually

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gain this capability. And
when they do, will it be a
situation where our companies

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are left on the outside
looking in, while other
countries' semiconductor
companies sell to China?

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NICK SCHIFRIN: So there's a risk
in trying to constrain China's
growth for U.S. companies?

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON: Absolutely,
because as the risk that you
run is that, what if we're

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partially successful in slowing
them down, but they double
and triple down and all these

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other areas of high technology,
artificial intelligence,
quantum computing, and so on?

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If they're successful there and
wind up in front of us in those
key technologies, where the race

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is still very much at hand, we
could have a situation where
we're suddenly behind them.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: Xi Jinping
is the most powerful
Chinese leader since Mao.

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Has he taken even more
steps in this Congress
to try and erase the most

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powerful Chinese leader that
was between Xi and Mao, Deng
Xiaoping, and his reform?

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON:
Yes, absolutely.

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In foreign the policy
arena, Deng's theory was
always, China should keep
a low profile and not

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raise its head internationally.
Xi Jinping says, China
already is a superpower
and it's time for it

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to start acting like one
on the global stage. And
that's a massive diminution
of Deng's role and an

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effort to create a direct
line between Mao Zedong
and himself as China's
unparalleled top leader.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: And, of
course, that is what
we expect next weekend,

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Xi Jinping being
granted that third term.

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Chris Johnson of the
China Strategies Group,
thank you very much.

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CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON:
My pleasure.