1 00:00:00,199 --> 00:00:04,450 JUDY WOODRUFF: In his remarks to global leaders today, President Biden said that climate change 2 00:00:04,450 --> 00:00:07,109 is -- quote -- "ravaging the world." 3 00:00:07,109 --> 00:00:12,109 That message is likely to be delivered repeatedly at the U.N. summit on climate change. Leaders, 4 00:00:13,530 --> 00:00:18,530 researchers and activists all say that humans are at a tipping point to reduce emissions 5 00:00:19,220 --> 00:00:24,220 and pressed the need for meaningful action. But getting commitments that translate to 6 00:00:24,250 --> 00:00:27,360 real change is no small lift. 7 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,390 William Brangham reports on the stakes of this summit. 8 00:00:30,390 --> 00:00:35,390 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: In the small Belgian town of Pepinster, heavy machinery finishes what 9 00:00:36,460 --> 00:00:37,860 the floodwaters started. 10 00:00:37,860 --> 00:00:42,860 CAMILLE BRISBOIS, Belgium (through translator): This situation, it's difficult for me. 11 00:00:43,890 --> 00:00:48,890 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Camille Brisbois knows his home is next. It's the only house he's ever 12 00:00:49,310 --> 00:00:50,310 known. 13 00:00:50,310 --> 00:00:55,310 CAMILLE BRISBOIS (through translator): I'm sentimental and emotional. I was born in this 14 00:00:55,330 --> 00:00:57,860 house on December 5, 1946. 15 00:00:57,860 --> 00:01:02,860 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: It's pain that was shared across Belgium and Germany this summer, where 16 00:01:03,250 --> 00:01:07,409 catastrophic floods killed more than 200. 17 00:01:07,409 --> 00:01:12,409 Six thousand miles away, in the Philippines, 61-year-old Luzviminda Tayson fears she and 18 00:01:13,590 --> 00:01:18,590 her family will face a similar fate, their home swept away in a flood. 19 00:01:19,429 --> 00:01:24,139 LUZVIMINDA TAYSON, Flood Evacuee (through translator): The monsoon rains are terrifying, 20 00:01:24,139 --> 00:01:29,139 so we decided to evacuate early. In the last typhoon, it was difficult to get out. This 21 00:01:29,670 --> 00:01:34,090 time, we didn't want the waters to rise and be caught in it again. 22 00:01:34,090 --> 00:01:39,090 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Across the Pacific Ocean, that same month, friends gathered in Olympia, 23 00:01:40,139 --> 00:01:45,139 Washington, to mourn the death of Barnett Moss, one of the hundreds who died in a brutal 24 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:46,200 heat wave. 25 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:48,409 MARY VAN VERST, Friend of Barnett Moss: I brought extra water and implored him to drink 26 00:01:48,409 --> 00:01:52,280 it. I could tell he was gravely affected by the heat. 27 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:57,049 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Just south of them, on the same coast, in the same summer, the Caldor 28 00:01:57,049 --> 00:01:59,219 Fire took Chris Sheean's home. 29 00:01:59,219 --> 00:02:03,539 CHRIS SHEEAN, Fire Victim: Everything that we owned, everything that we have built is 30 00:02:03,539 --> 00:02:07,349 gone. The only thing that's left standing is a chimney. 31 00:02:07,349 --> 00:02:12,349 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Four lives among millions more distorted and lost this year alone from 32 00:02:13,019 --> 00:02:16,129 the impacts of climate change. 33 00:02:16,129 --> 00:02:21,129 A warming atmosphere isn't the sole cause of these disasters, but the evidence grows 34 00:02:21,210 --> 00:02:26,210 clearer every day that fossil fuel emissions make these calamities more frequent, more 35 00:02:27,460 --> 00:02:29,569 severe, more deadly. 36 00:02:29,569 --> 00:02:34,239 MAN: I'm delighted that so many of you have joined us here in Glasgow. 37 00:02:34,239 --> 00:02:38,790 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: This is what's facing leaders and negotiators from nearly 200 countries 38 00:02:38,790 --> 00:02:43,790 over the next two weeks in Glasgow. Can those emissions be curtailed? And can it be done 39 00:02:45,239 --> 00:02:48,310 in time to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change? 40 00:02:48,310 --> 00:02:50,370 DR. KIM COBB, Climate Scientist, Georgia Institute of Technology: There's just a huge amount 41 00:02:50,370 --> 00:02:55,370 at stake this fall. It's almost hard to put into words, because the burden on these policy-makers 42 00:02:56,180 --> 00:02:57,650 could not be any greater. 43 00:02:57,650 --> 00:03:02,650 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Dr. Kim Cobb is a climate scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology. 44 00:03:02,829 --> 00:03:07,629 She was one of the lead authors on a recent U.N. climate report, which showed emissions 45 00:03:07,629 --> 00:03:12,629 rising much faster than previously known. She says these COP 26 negotiations could be 46 00:03:14,780 --> 00:03:15,780 historic. 47 00:03:15,780 --> 00:03:20,670 DR. KIM COBB: This is something that is a clarion call for our generation and future 48 00:03:20,670 --> 00:03:25,579 generations for centuries to come. Really, we're going to be deciding what futures we're 49 00:03:25,579 --> 00:03:28,689 bringing down upon ourselves, largely over the next decade. 50 00:03:28,689 --> 00:03:33,689 And, in part, that can be distilled to this most historic year of international ambition, 51 00:03:35,379 --> 00:03:36,379 or lack thereof. 52 00:03:36,379 --> 00:03:41,379 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Back in 2015, in the Paris agreement, 196 nations pledged to reduce their 53 00:03:42,519 --> 00:03:47,519 emissions enough to keep warming below an additional 2 degrees Celsius compared to the 54 00:03:48,540 --> 00:03:50,390 preindustrial era. 55 00:03:50,390 --> 00:03:55,390 The planet has already warmed over one degree since the 19th century. The hope in Paris 56 00:03:55,749 --> 00:04:00,749 was to keep warming to just 1.5 degrees. Beyond that threshold, scientists say the punishing 57 00:04:03,170 --> 00:04:07,060 and lethal effects of climate change will only get worse. 58 00:04:07,060 --> 00:04:11,770 Here's how, back in 2015, Princeton University's Michael Oppenheimer stressed the urgency: 59 00:04:11,770 --> 00:04:12,840 MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs, Princeton University: 60 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:17,840 If we don't start with rapid emissions reductions and substantial emissions reductions, that 61 00:04:18,590 --> 00:04:23,430 we will pass a danger point, beyond which the consequences for many people and countries 62 00:04:23,430 --> 00:04:27,830 on Earth will simply become unacceptable and eventually disastrous. 63 00:04:27,830 --> 00:04:32,830 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: At the conclusion of the Paris talks, President Obama expressed optimism 64 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,530 that the world understood the severity of the crisis and was acting. 65 00:04:37,530 --> 00:04:39,530 BARACK OBAMA, Former President of the United States: I think we're going to solve it. I 66 00:04:39,530 --> 00:04:44,530 think the issue is just going to be the pace, and how much damage is done before we are 67 00:04:47,930 --> 00:04:49,460 able to fully apply the brakes. 68 00:04:49,460 --> 00:04:54,460 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: But in the six years since, the world has only stepped on the gas. Apart 69 00:04:54,820 --> 00:04:59,710 from a brief dip during the early days of the pandemic, global emissions have continued 70 00:04:59,710 --> 00:05:02,390 to set records. 71 00:05:02,390 --> 00:05:07,060 More than half of all the carbon that's been put in the atmosphere was done in just the 72 00:05:07,060 --> 00:05:12,060 last 30 years. Global temperatures have also continued to rise. The last seven years have 73 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,210 been the warmest seven years on record. 74 00:05:15,210 --> 00:05:20,210 ANTONIO GUTERRES, United Nations Secretary-General: It's time to say, enough. Enough of brutalizing 75 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:26,560 biodiversity. Enough of killing ourselves with carbon. Enough of treating nature like 76 00:05:29,340 --> 00:05:34,340 a toilet. Enough of burning and drilling and mining our way deeper. We are digging our 77 00:05:36,840 --> 00:05:37,840 own graves. 78 00:05:37,840 --> 00:05:42,840 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: A report released by the U.N. last week said that, at this pace, the 79 00:05:43,060 --> 00:05:48,060 world will blow past those Paris targets and hit 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by the 80 00:05:49,780 --> 00:05:50,780 end of the century. 81 00:05:50,780 --> 00:05:54,840 DR. KIM COBB: It's really important to realize just how little we have tipped the scales 82 00:05:54,840 --> 00:05:59,580 in our global climate system, and how these have translated into the devastating effects 83 00:05:59,580 --> 00:06:01,080 we're seeing today. 84 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:06,080 We have warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius since the preindustrial era. To double or triple the 85 00:06:07,430 --> 00:06:12,430 kinds of impacts that we're seeing, that's a 2 or 3 degree Celsius world, and that is 86 00:06:13,750 --> 00:06:18,750 not a world that would be remotely recognizable to those of us sitting here today, already 87 00:06:19,270 --> 00:06:22,830 reeling from the effects of a 1.1 degree Celsius world. 88 00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:24,580 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Unrecognizable to us? 89 00:06:24,580 --> 00:06:25,880 DR. KIM COBB: Yes. 90 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:30,710 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Right now, climate change is forcing massive migrations. One recent 91 00:06:30,710 --> 00:06:35,710 analysis said climate-related events drive twice as many people from their homes as war 92 00:06:36,930 --> 00:06:38,630 and violence. 93 00:06:38,630 --> 00:06:43,630 Two weeks ago, the Pentagon, the White House, DHS, and the director of national intelligence 94 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:49,000 all echoed this concern that -- quote -- "The climate crisis is reshaping our world" and 95 00:06:49,770 --> 00:06:54,770 that these migrations could trigger political instability and conflict. 96 00:06:55,310 --> 00:07:00,310 Providing aid to these vulnerable nations will be another main topic in Glasgow. The 97 00:07:00,711 --> 00:07:05,711 world's major polluters have failed to fully deliver a promised $100 billion yearly fund 98 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:11,270 to help these countries adapt and survive in a warming world. 99 00:07:11,270 --> 00:07:16,270 GRETA THUNBERG, Climate Activist: Build back better, blah, blah, blah. Green economy, blah, 100 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:20,240 blah, blah. Net zero by 2050, blah, blah, blah. 101 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:24,580 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: In the lead-up to Glasgow, the global climate movement has continued 102 00:07:24,580 --> 00:07:29,580 to press for action, including Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg, who's been excoriating world 103 00:07:30,170 --> 00:07:32,000 leaders for unkept promises. 104 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:37,000 GRETA THUNBERG: This is all we hear from our so-called leaders, words, words that sound 105 00:07:39,860 --> 00:07:44,020 great, but so far have led to no action. 106 00:07:44,020 --> 00:07:47,830 WOMAN: We have to get strong commitments to reduce emissions by 2030. 107 00:07:47,830 --> 00:07:52,830 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: As negotiators in Glasgow hope to forge the safest possible future, 108 00:07:53,530 --> 00:07:58,530 those on the front lines continue to suffer the very ugly present of a warming world. 109 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,820 JUDY WOODRUFF: And William joins me now. 110 00:08:02,820 --> 00:08:06,940 And what a stark picture that report is painting, William. 111 00:08:06,940 --> 00:08:11,940 So these meetings, a huge gathering of leaders and activists, it goes for two weeks. What 112 00:08:12,830 --> 00:08:16,040 is expected is going to come out of this in practical terms? 113 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:20,640 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Well, it is important to know Glasgow is a continuation of this process. 114 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:25,620 Paris, as we heard, set this it goal of, let's do everything we can to keep warming of the 115 00:08:25,620 --> 00:08:30,620 planet from going above an additional 1.5 degrees Celsius. This meeting in Glasgow is 116 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:36,110 sort of a check-in of sorts for all the nations to come together and say, are we cutting emissions 117 00:08:36,110 --> 00:08:39,030 enough to stay under that threshold? 118 00:08:39,030 --> 00:08:44,030 It's sort of a way to stiffen the global spine for more action. One complication on all of 119 00:08:44,180 --> 00:08:48,440 this, though, is that all of these pledges are voluntary. There is no built-in enforcement 120 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:53,330 mechanism. No one should be waiting for a treaty or pact to be signed at the end of 121 00:08:53,330 --> 00:08:54,330 all of this. 122 00:08:54,330 --> 00:08:59,330 But it is really what happens after Glasgow, in the weeks and months and year after yard 123 00:08:59,690 --> 00:09:03,510 afterwards, that we will know whether these countries took themselves seriously. 124 00:09:03,510 --> 00:09:08,510 JUDY WOODRUFF: So, how likely is it that we are going to see some measure of success, 125 00:09:09,930 --> 00:09:11,360 some semblance of real success? 126 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:15,520 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Well, there is real hope, but there are a lot of dark clouds on the 127 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:16,520 horizon. 128 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:20,070 The U.S.' position in particular, there is no doubt that Joe Biden is in Glasgow right 129 00:09:20,070 --> 00:09:25,070 now with a weakened hand. Last week, a major climate tool was taken out of his toolbox 130 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:31,000 by Joe Manchin. The Build Back Better has some elements that are still potent climate 131 00:09:31,890 --> 00:09:35,340 tools. But we know that Manchin is still dubious about that. 132 00:09:35,340 --> 00:09:39,180 So it's very difficult for the United States to cajole other nations and say, act boldly 133 00:09:39,180 --> 00:09:43,430 on this issue, when we have a hard time doing it here in the U.S. 134 00:09:43,430 --> 00:09:48,430 Same issue also applies to the other major emitters, China, India, Brazil. Their leaders 135 00:09:48,940 --> 00:09:53,480 are either not at Glasgow or their pledges thus far have not gotten us anywhere near 136 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:55,180 where we need to be. 137 00:09:55,180 --> 00:09:59,090 The important thing to take away from all of this is that the gulf between what we know 138 00:09:59,090 --> 00:10:04,090 needs to be done and what nations have pledged to do is unbelievably vast. And narrowing 139 00:10:05,340 --> 00:10:08,110 that chasm is the whole goal. 140 00:10:08,110 --> 00:10:10,690 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we are going to be watching it. 141 00:10:10,690 --> 00:10:15,690 You are going to Glasgow next week. You're going to be reporting from there for us through 142 00:10:15,830 --> 00:10:17,510 the end of the two-week period. 143 00:10:17,510 --> 00:10:18,510 Thank you, William. 144 00:10:18,510 --> 00:10:19,350 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: You're welcome, Judy.