WEBVTT 00:00.199 --> 00:04.450 JUDY WOODRUFF: In his remarks to global leaders today, President Biden said that climate change 00:04.450 --> 00:07.109 is -- quote -- "ravaging the world." 00:07.109 --> 00:12.109 That message is likely to be delivered repeatedly at the U.N. summit on climate change. Leaders, 00:13.530 --> 00:18.530 researchers and activists all say that humans are at a tipping point to reduce emissions 00:19.220 --> 00:24.220 and pressed the need for meaningful action. But getting commitments that translate to 00:24.250 --> 00:27.360 real change is no small lift. 00:27.360 --> 00:30.390 William Brangham reports on the stakes of this summit. 00:30.390 --> 00:35.390 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: In the small Belgian town of Pepinster, heavy machinery finishes what 00:36.460 --> 00:37.860 the floodwaters started. 00:37.860 --> 00:42.860 CAMILLE BRISBOIS, Belgium (through translator): This situation, it's difficult for me. 00:43.890 --> 00:48.890 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Camille Brisbois knows his home is next. It's the only house he's ever 00:49.310 --> 00:50.310 known. 00:50.310 --> 00:55.310 CAMILLE BRISBOIS (through translator): I'm sentimental and emotional. I was born in this 00:55.330 --> 00:57.860 house on December 5, 1946. 00:57.860 --> 01:02.860 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: It's pain that was shared across Belgium and Germany this summer, where 01:03.250 --> 01:07.409 catastrophic floods killed more than 200. 01:07.409 --> 01:12.409 Six thousand miles away, in the Philippines, 61-year-old Luzviminda Tayson fears she and 01:13.590 --> 01:18.590 her family will face a similar fate, their home swept away in a flood. 01:19.429 --> 01:24.139 LUZVIMINDA TAYSON, Flood Evacuee (through translator): The monsoon rains are terrifying, 01:24.139 --> 01:29.139 so we decided to evacuate early. In the last typhoon, it was difficult to get out. This 01:29.670 --> 01:34.090 time, we didn't want the waters to rise and be caught in it again. 01:34.090 --> 01:39.090 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Across the Pacific Ocean, that same month, friends gathered in Olympia, 01:40.139 --> 01:45.139 Washington, to mourn the death of Barnett Moss, one of the hundreds who died in a brutal 01:45.200 --> 01:46.200 heat wave. 01:46.200 --> 01:48.409 MARY VAN VERST, Friend of Barnett Moss: I brought extra water and implored him to drink 01:48.409 --> 01:52.280 it. I could tell he was gravely affected by the heat. 01:52.280 --> 01:57.049 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Just south of them, on the same coast, in the same summer, the Caldor 01:57.049 --> 01:59.219 Fire took Chris Sheean's home. 01:59.219 --> 02:03.539 CHRIS SHEEAN, Fire Victim: Everything that we owned, everything that we have built is 02:03.539 --> 02:07.349 gone. The only thing that's left standing is a chimney. 02:07.349 --> 02:12.349 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Four lives among millions more distorted and lost this year alone from 02:13.019 --> 02:16.129 the impacts of climate change. 02:16.129 --> 02:21.129 A warming atmosphere isn't the sole cause of these disasters, but the evidence grows 02:21.210 --> 02:26.210 clearer every day that fossil fuel emissions make these calamities more frequent, more 02:27.460 --> 02:29.569 severe, more deadly. 02:29.569 --> 02:34.239 MAN: I'm delighted that so many of you have joined us here in Glasgow. 02:34.239 --> 02:38.790 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: This is what's facing leaders and negotiators from nearly 200 countries 02:38.790 --> 02:43.790 over the next two weeks in Glasgow. Can those emissions be curtailed? And can it be done 02:45.239 --> 02:48.310 in time to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change? 02:48.310 --> 02:50.370 DR. KIM COBB, Climate Scientist, Georgia Institute of Technology: There's just a huge amount 02:50.370 --> 02:55.370 at stake this fall. It's almost hard to put into words, because the burden on these policy-makers 02:56.180 --> 02:57.650 could not be any greater. 02:57.650 --> 03:02.650 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Dr. Kim Cobb is a climate scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology. 03:02.829 --> 03:07.629 She was one of the lead authors on a recent U.N. climate report, which showed emissions 03:07.629 --> 03:12.629 rising much faster than previously known. She says these COP 26 negotiations could be 03:14.780 --> 03:15.780 historic. 03:15.780 --> 03:20.670 DR. KIM COBB: This is something that is a clarion call for our generation and future 03:20.670 --> 03:25.579 generations for centuries to come. Really, we're going to be deciding what futures we're 03:25.579 --> 03:28.689 bringing down upon ourselves, largely over the next decade. 03:28.689 --> 03:33.689 And, in part, that can be distilled to this most historic year of international ambition, 03:35.379 --> 03:36.379 or lack thereof. 03:36.379 --> 03:41.379 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Back in 2015, in the Paris agreement, 196 nations pledged to reduce their 03:42.519 --> 03:47.519 emissions enough to keep warming below an additional 2 degrees Celsius compared to the 03:48.540 --> 03:50.390 preindustrial era. 03:50.390 --> 03:55.390 The planet has already warmed over one degree since the 19th century. The hope in Paris 03:55.749 --> 04:00.749 was to keep warming to just 1.5 degrees. Beyond that threshold, scientists say the punishing 04:03.170 --> 04:07.060 and lethal effects of climate change will only get worse. 04:07.060 --> 04:11.770 Here's how, back in 2015, Princeton University's Michael Oppenheimer stressed the urgency: 04:11.770 --> 04:12.840 MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs, Princeton University: 04:12.840 --> 04:17.840 If we don't start with rapid emissions reductions and substantial emissions reductions, that 04:18.590 --> 04:23.430 we will pass a danger point, beyond which the consequences for many people and countries 04:23.430 --> 04:27.830 on Earth will simply become unacceptable and eventually disastrous. 04:27.830 --> 04:32.830 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: At the conclusion of the Paris talks, President Obama expressed optimism 04:33.680 --> 04:37.530 that the world understood the severity of the crisis and was acting. 04:37.530 --> 04:39.530 BARACK OBAMA, Former President of the United States: I think we're going to solve it. I 04:39.530 --> 04:44.530 think the issue is just going to be the pace, and how much damage is done before we are 04:47.930 --> 04:49.460 able to fully apply the brakes. 04:49.460 --> 04:54.460 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: But in the six years since, the world has only stepped on the gas. Apart 04:54.820 --> 04:59.710 from a brief dip during the early days of the pandemic, global emissions have continued 04:59.710 --> 05:02.390 to set records. 05:02.390 --> 05:07.060 More than half of all the carbon that's been put in the atmosphere was done in just the 05:07.060 --> 05:12.060 last 30 years. Global temperatures have also continued to rise. The last seven years have 05:13.040 --> 05:15.210 been the warmest seven years on record. 05:15.210 --> 05:20.210 ANTONIO GUTERRES, United Nations Secretary-General: It's time to say, enough. Enough of brutalizing 05:21.560 --> 05:26.560 biodiversity. Enough of killing ourselves with carbon. Enough of treating nature like 05:29.340 --> 05:34.340 a toilet. Enough of burning and drilling and mining our way deeper. We are digging our 05:36.840 --> 05:37.840 own graves. 05:37.840 --> 05:42.840 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: A report released by the U.N. last week said that, at this pace, the 05:43.060 --> 05:48.060 world will blow past those Paris targets and hit 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by the 05:49.780 --> 05:50.780 end of the century. 05:50.780 --> 05:54.840 DR. KIM COBB: It's really important to realize just how little we have tipped the scales 05:54.840 --> 05:59.580 in our global climate system, and how these have translated into the devastating effects 05:59.580 --> 06:01.080 we're seeing today. 06:01.080 --> 06:06.080 We have warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius since the preindustrial era. To double or triple the 06:07.430 --> 06:12.430 kinds of impacts that we're seeing, that's a 2 or 3 degree Celsius world, and that is 06:13.750 --> 06:18.750 not a world that would be remotely recognizable to those of us sitting here today, already 06:19.270 --> 06:22.830 reeling from the effects of a 1.1 degree Celsius world. 06:22.830 --> 06:24.580 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Unrecognizable to us? 06:24.580 --> 06:25.880 DR. KIM COBB: Yes. 06:25.880 --> 06:30.710 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Right now, climate change is forcing massive migrations. One recent 06:30.710 --> 06:35.710 analysis said climate-related events drive twice as many people from their homes as war 06:36.930 --> 06:38.630 and violence. 06:38.630 --> 06:43.630 Two weeks ago, the Pentagon, the White House, DHS, and the director of national intelligence 06:44.000 --> 06:49.000 all echoed this concern that -- quote -- "The climate crisis is reshaping our world" and 06:49.770 --> 06:54.770 that these migrations could trigger political instability and conflict. 06:55.310 --> 07:00.310 Providing aid to these vulnerable nations will be another main topic in Glasgow. The 07:00.711 --> 07:05.711 world's major polluters have failed to fully deliver a promised $100 billion yearly fund 07:07.440 --> 07:11.270 to help these countries adapt and survive in a warming world. 07:11.270 --> 07:16.270 GRETA THUNBERG, Climate Activist: Build back better, blah, blah, blah. Green economy, blah, 07:16.720 --> 07:20.240 blah, blah. Net zero by 2050, blah, blah, blah. 07:20.240 --> 07:24.580 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: In the lead-up to Glasgow, the global climate movement has continued 07:24.580 --> 07:29.580 to press for action, including Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg, who's been excoriating world 07:30.170 --> 07:32.000 leaders for unkept promises. 07:32.000 --> 07:37.000 GRETA THUNBERG: This is all we hear from our so-called leaders, words, words that sound 07:39.860 --> 07:44.020 great, but so far have led to no action. 07:44.020 --> 07:47.830 WOMAN: We have to get strong commitments to reduce emissions by 2030. 07:47.830 --> 07:52.830 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: As negotiators in Glasgow hope to forge the safest possible future, 07:53.530 --> 07:58.530 those on the front lines continue to suffer the very ugly present of a warming world. 08:00.160 --> 08:02.820 JUDY WOODRUFF: And William joins me now. 08:02.820 --> 08:06.940 And what a stark picture that report is painting, William. 08:06.940 --> 08:11.940 So these meetings, a huge gathering of leaders and activists, it goes for two weeks. What 08:12.830 --> 08:16.040 is expected is going to come out of this in practical terms? 08:16.040 --> 08:20.640 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Well, it is important to know Glasgow is a continuation of this process. 08:20.640 --> 08:25.620 Paris, as we heard, set this it goal of, let's do everything we can to keep warming of the 08:25.620 --> 08:30.620 planet from going above an additional 1.5 degrees Celsius. This meeting in Glasgow is 08:31.240 --> 08:36.110 sort of a check-in of sorts for all the nations to come together and say, are we cutting emissions 08:36.110 --> 08:39.030 enough to stay under that threshold? 08:39.030 --> 08:44.030 It's sort of a way to stiffen the global spine for more action. One complication on all of 08:44.180 --> 08:48.440 this, though, is that all of these pledges are voluntary. There is no built-in enforcement 08:48.440 --> 08:53.330 mechanism. No one should be waiting for a treaty or pact to be signed at the end of 08:53.330 --> 08:54.330 all of this. 08:54.330 --> 08:59.330 But it is really what happens after Glasgow, in the weeks and months and year after yard 08:59.690 --> 09:03.510 afterwards, that we will know whether these countries took themselves seriously. 09:03.510 --> 09:08.510 JUDY WOODRUFF: So, how likely is it that we are going to see some measure of success, 09:09.930 --> 09:11.360 some semblance of real success? 09:11.360 --> 09:15.520 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Well, there is real hope, but there are a lot of dark clouds on the 09:15.520 --> 09:16.520 horizon. 09:16.520 --> 09:20.070 The U.S.' position in particular, there is no doubt that Joe Biden is in Glasgow right 09:20.070 --> 09:25.070 now with a weakened hand. Last week, a major climate tool was taken out of his toolbox 09:26.000 --> 09:31.000 by Joe Manchin. The Build Back Better has some elements that are still potent climate 09:31.890 --> 09:35.340 tools. But we know that Manchin is still dubious about that. 09:35.340 --> 09:39.180 So it's very difficult for the United States to cajole other nations and say, act boldly 09:39.180 --> 09:43.430 on this issue, when we have a hard time doing it here in the U.S. 09:43.430 --> 09:48.430 Same issue also applies to the other major emitters, China, India, Brazil. Their leaders 09:48.940 --> 09:53.480 are either not at Glasgow or their pledges thus far have not gotten us anywhere near 09:53.480 --> 09:55.180 where we need to be. 09:55.180 --> 09:59.090 The important thing to take away from all of this is that the gulf between what we know 09:59.090 --> 10:04.090 needs to be done and what nations have pledged to do is unbelievably vast. And narrowing 10:05.340 --> 10:08.110 that chasm is the whole goal. 10:08.110 --> 10:10.690 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we are going to be watching it. 10:10.690 --> 10:15.690 You are going to Glasgow next week. You're going to be reporting from there for us through 10:15.830 --> 10:17.510 the end of the two-week period. 10:17.510 --> 10:18.510 Thank you, William. 10:18.510 --> 10:19.350 WILLIAM BRANGHAM: You're welcome, Judy.