1 00:00:23,033 --> 00:00:25,433 JUDY WOODRUFF: Good evening. I'm Judy Woodruff. 2 00:00:25,433 --> 00:00:30,333 And welcome to this "PBS NewsHour" Vote 2020 election special. 3 00:00:30,333 --> 00:00:35,333 The Iowa caucuses are under way, the first contest to decide who will be the nominees 4 00:00:36,466 --> 00:00:38,833 for president. 5 00:00:38,833 --> 00:00:42,733 In the Republican presidential caucus, unsurprisingly, President Donald Trump is projected to win 6 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:48,600 the Hawkeye State. As you can see, with more than 83, almost 84 percent of the precincts 7 00:00:50,666 --> 00:00:55,233 reporting, President Trump has better than 97 percent of the vote on the Republican side. 8 00:00:58,066 --> 00:01:03,033 And for the Democrats, however, we still do not have any results. 9 00:01:04,566 --> 00:01:07,000 We have a team in Iowa led by "NewsHour" correspondent John Yang. 10 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:12,000 With him on the campus of Drake University, in Des Moines, where the caucuses continue, 11 00:01:13,933 --> 00:01:17,400 are Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report, also the host of "Politics With Amy Walter" 12 00:01:19,366 --> 00:01:22,433 on WNYC Radio, and longtime Iowa political reporter David Yepsen. He's the host of a 13 00:01:23,300 --> 00:01:26,366 program "Iowa Press" on Iowa TV. 14 00:01:26,366 --> 00:01:30,900 So, John Yang, I'm going to come quickly to you first. What is going on? The caucuses 15 00:01:30,900 --> 00:01:35,900 began three hours ago. We expected to get early reports, at least preliminary numbers. 16 00:01:37,866 --> 00:01:40,000 And, so far, we don't have anything. 17 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,333 JOHN YANG: We don't have anything. 18 00:01:43,333 --> 00:01:48,066 The Democratic Party just released a statement saying that they are being very careful. They 19 00:01:48,066 --> 00:01:53,033 say quality control is delaying the reporting. They say they have about 25 percent of the 20 00:01:53,666 --> 00:01:55,633 results in. 21 00:01:55,633 --> 00:01:59,633 And they also say that turnout, which some had predicted could top the record turnout 22 00:02:01,666 --> 00:02:05,333 in 2008, when Barack Obama got a big boost here, they say that turnout is only on pace 23 00:02:07,266 --> 00:02:12,000 to match 2016's turnout, so significantly lower than what had been forecast. 24 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:18,200 The party also says that one reason for the delay is that, for the first time, they're 25 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:23,200 releasing three numbers, rather than just one. Previously, they would just tell us the 26 00:02:24,833 --> 00:02:29,100 number of delegates who had been allocated to the various candidates. 27 00:02:29,100 --> 00:02:34,100 Tonight, they're also reporting the raw vote at the beginning of the night, when people 28 00:02:36,100 --> 00:02:40,333 arrived at the caucuses, and then after people rearranged themselves, once the candidate 29 00:02:41,733 --> 00:02:45,733 - - some candidates who didn't have enough for viability. 30 00:02:45,733 --> 00:02:49,566 There is also some suspicions that perhaps they won't -- I shouldn't say that. We do 31 00:02:49,566 --> 00:02:54,533 know that the party wants to release everything at once, all three of those data points at 32 00:02:56,566 --> 00:03:00,266 once, that perhaps it could be that they want to avoid the piecemeal dribs and drabs of 33 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:08,033 numbers that some of the campaigns could use to declare victory. 34 00:03:08,033 --> 00:03:13,033 JUDY WOODRUFF: I think some of the terms we're using, John, may be unfamiliar to folks who 35 00:03:13,900 --> 00:03:16,000 don't follow these caucuses. 36 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:21,000 You mentioned raw vote. The Iowa Democratic Party had referred to alignment and then what 37 00:03:21,866 --> 00:03:23,933 they were calling realignment. 38 00:03:23,933 --> 00:03:27,766 I will bring in David Yepsen at this point, because he has been covering Iowa politics 39 00:03:27,766 --> 00:03:29,833 for a long time. 40 00:03:29,833 --> 00:03:34,233 David, it's our -- what we know is that the Democratic National Committee reached in and 41 00:03:36,266 --> 00:03:40,433 had the Iowa Democrats change their process this year. Can you tell us in a nutshell what 42 00:03:41,300 --> 00:03:43,366 happened? What did they do? 43 00:03:43,366 --> 00:03:47,633 DAVID YEPSEN, Iowa PBS: Well, in the -- in prior years, they never released an initial 44 00:03:50,233 --> 00:03:55,233 preference. They never released a body count, if you will, because they didn't want to look 45 00:03:56,700 --> 00:04:00,266 too much like a primary. That would offend New Hampshire. 46 00:04:00,266 --> 00:04:05,200 In 2016, what happened was, Bernie Sanders' supporters feel like they won the vote of 47 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:11,866 the initial people walking in the room and that Hillary Clinton won the delegates, and 48 00:04:11,866 --> 00:04:14,000 so she claimed victory. 49 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:18,433 So, to be transparent, this year, they're going to release everything, the initial preferences 50 00:04:18,433 --> 00:04:23,433 of people when they walked in the door, then where those people went who were not in a 51 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:29,166 group of 15 percent to qualify for delegates, and then the delegate count. 52 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:35,700 And what is happening tonight is -- goes contrary to what the state Democratic chairman, Troy 53 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:41,933 Price, told us in an interview, which was, these numbers would be reported by precinct 54 00:04:42,833 --> 00:04:44,900 as they came in. 55 00:04:44,900 --> 00:04:49,666 So it leads to the question, is there some kind of problem? Because to have this happen 56 00:04:51,633 --> 00:04:56,533 really detracts from the importance of the caucus. To release them in the middle of the 57 00:04:58,500 --> 00:05:01,666 night is giving the winner no bounce. And that's why come here to campaign, to get a 58 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:04,366 win. 59 00:05:04,366 --> 00:05:07,366 In fairness to the state party, though, they have had problems in the past with counts. 60 00:05:07,366 --> 00:05:12,366 And more than one state chairman has lost his job because he messed up the count. 61 00:05:14,300 --> 00:05:18,033 So I imagine Mr. Price this year is being extra careful, even though all the media people 62 00:05:18,033 --> 00:05:20,633 are mad. 63 00:05:20,633 --> 00:05:24,033 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, it has -- takes on particular importance because of all the focus this year 64 00:05:24,033 --> 00:05:29,033 and in the last few years over election security and election accuracy and hacking and whether 65 00:05:30,333 --> 00:05:32,400 elections have been interfered with. 66 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:37,133 And so even a simple mishap is going to be - - frankly, has the potential to be misinterpreted 67 00:05:41,833 --> 00:05:44,100 until something is released. 68 00:05:44,100 --> 00:05:49,100 I just want to come back and ask you again, David Yepsen -- and, Amy and John Yang, please 69 00:05:51,166 --> 00:05:56,166 feel free to jump in -- just to understand what is different about Iowa, as you said, 70 00:05:58,100 --> 00:06:00,533 is, it's not just the number of people who show up at these caucuses. 71 00:06:00,533 --> 00:06:05,500 It is that the candidates, in order to get - - to be counted at all, to have any chance 72 00:06:07,833 --> 00:06:12,833 of getting delegates to the national convention, they have to have more than 15 percent in 73 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,400 each one of these, what, over 1,600-some-odd caucuses. 74 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:21,466 And if you don't have the 15 percent, that is where the so called realignment or rearranging 75 00:06:21,466 --> 00:06:23,100 happens. 76 00:06:23,100 --> 00:06:26,966 DAVID YEPSEN: That's correct, Judy. 77 00:06:26,966 --> 00:06:31,966 The process is about electing delegates. The nominee is picked by delegates. And so this 78 00:06:34,166 --> 00:06:39,166 is not a primary. This is picked by people at caucuses who elect delegates. And you -- if 79 00:06:41,133 --> 00:06:45,400 they don't have 15 percent of the whole, as a candidate, your people have to realign with 80 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,433 a group that does. 81 00:06:48,433 --> 00:06:52,466 JUDY WOODRUFF: Amy Walter, you are there in the middle between David and John. 82 00:06:54,466 --> 00:06:57,000 And, like David, you have covered a lot of these elections, and like John. 83 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:02,000 How are you reading what is going on? We don't have results yet. There are rules changes 84 00:07:04,033 --> 00:07:08,966 that were imposed by the Democratic National Committee. What do we make of it at this hour? 85 00:07:10,933 --> 00:07:15,433 AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: You know, Judy, it is a really important point, 86 00:07:17,366 --> 00:07:19,700 this changes in rules. And, remember, it's not just the Iowa caucus rules that have been 87 00:07:19,700 --> 00:07:21,800 changed. 88 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:25,700 Another big rule change was the fact that superdelegates are no longer able to cast 89 00:07:27,566 --> 00:07:31,833 their ballot until, at the convention, if there is a second ballot. If the person who 90 00:07:34,300 --> 00:07:37,800 has the most pledged delicate delegates has the ability to win, they don't need superdelegates. 91 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:42,800 The point is, all these changes were made in response to Bernie Sanders' campaign in 92 00:07:44,833 --> 00:07:49,033 2016 and the frustration that many of his supporters felt that the DNC was putting their 93 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:51,000 thumb on the scale for Hillary Clinton. 94 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,066 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 95 00:07:53,066 --> 00:07:54,833 AMY WALTER: But it goes to a bigger question. And I think we have been seeing it for the 96 00:07:54,833 --> 00:07:58,600 last 10 or so years, which is, what is the point of the parties? 97 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,700 The point of the parties not so long ago was, they make the rules, and if you want to be 98 00:08:02,700 --> 00:08:07,700 a part of that party, you follow the rules. Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, both candidates 99 00:08:09,666 --> 00:08:13,200 who came from outside the system, outside of the party, have really transformed the 100 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,033 way the parties are actually conducting themselves. 101 00:08:16,033 --> 00:08:20,500 So it is pretty radical, actually, what is happening tonight. The party is worrying so 102 00:08:20,500 --> 00:08:25,500 much about things here in Iowa, about transparency, when, not that long ago, the party could say, 103 00:08:27,466 --> 00:08:31,366 well, if you don't want to be part of our process, then just don't come. 104 00:08:32,233 --> 00:08:33,033 You can't say that anymore. 105 00:08:33,033 --> 00:08:35,600 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 106 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,900 AMY WALTER: But, look, I do think that, every four years, Judy, we come to Iowa, these caucuses 107 00:08:40,900 --> 00:08:45,000 happen, and there is something -- at least since 2012, something has gone somewhat awry. 108 00:08:49,566 --> 00:08:54,566 And so I do think it is going to raise once more the question of, can Iowa still keep 109 00:08:57,100 --> 00:09:00,666 itself the first in the nation with the current system that they have, given how much importance 110 00:09:03,533 --> 00:09:06,333 these caucuses have in picking the ultimate nominee? 111 00:09:06,333 --> 00:09:09,266 JUDY WOODRUFF: Sure. And it is important, just quickly, that you mentioned the superdelegates. 112 00:09:09,266 --> 00:09:14,266 These, of course, are elected officials, people who have a prominent role to play. They may 113 00:09:16,266 --> 00:09:19,700 be governors. They may be members of Congress. But they are -- but they not a part of the 114 00:09:19,700 --> 00:09:24,700 process at this point. Their role was supposed to be diminished under these new rules. 115 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:31,266 Now I want to go to "NewsHour" political reporter Dan Bush, who is on the Drake University campus 116 00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:35,700 in Des Moines. 117 00:09:35,700 --> 00:09:38,333 Dan, I understand you have got a little bit of information about what is going on. 118 00:09:38,333 --> 00:09:42,233 DANIEL BUSH: That's right, Judy. 119 00:09:42,233 --> 00:09:47,233 So, I have been texting with an official who was involved in and helped lead the count 120 00:09:49,133 --> 00:09:52,966 at the largest precinct site in the state. And this official tells me that there is an 121 00:09:52,966 --> 00:09:57,966 app that can be downloaded to a phone, tablet or computer that the precincts are -- were 122 00:09:59,366 --> 00:10:03,300 supposed to use to submit the results digitally. 123 00:10:03,300 --> 00:10:08,166 That app appears not to be working for some precincts around the state. That is slowing 124 00:10:08,166 --> 00:10:13,166 the process down. This source said that it might take a while to sort it out, but that, 125 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,100 generally speaking, otherwise, the caucus went fairly smoothly. 126 00:10:17,100 --> 00:10:22,100 I spoke with one campaign that said they expect it to be a long night. We might not hear results 127 00:10:23,233 --> 00:10:25,300 for at least another hour, maybe even longer. 128 00:10:25,300 --> 00:10:28,566 JUDY WOODRUFF: But I guess -- I guess, Dan, I don't understand, because we had heard earlier 129 00:10:28,566 --> 00:10:33,566 in the day that this app on -- supposedly available on a smartphone or a tablet wasn't 130 00:10:36,033 --> 00:10:38,066 working, and that they were going to be calling in the results. 131 00:10:38,066 --> 00:10:40,600 So, we don't know what happened. 132 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,400 DANIEL BUSH: That's right. 133 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,200 And some precincts have been able to call in the results. Apparently, others have not. 134 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:52,166 And that has what caused some of the confusion. And, apparently, there still are precincts 135 00:10:52,166 --> 00:10:57,133 that are having trouble sticking with those guidelines and getting those results in with 136 00:10:57,766 --> 00:10:59,000 that app. 137 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,133 JUDY WOODRUFF: Dan, let me ask you. 138 00:11:01,133 --> 00:11:04,233 You have been there in the caucus at -- I guess there are several caucuses taking place 139 00:11:04,233 --> 00:11:09,233 at Drake University. What are the voters themselves saying about this? Are they asking questions? 140 00:11:11,100 --> 00:11:16,066 DANIEL BUSH: So, the voters here are waiting for the results to come in. 141 00:11:17,966 --> 00:11:22,866 You can see behind me supporters are filling up the room here at Vice President Biden's 142 00:11:25,233 --> 00:11:28,266 rally, waiting for him to come on stage. Some Biden supporters said, listen, this is a marathon, 143 00:11:30,233 --> 00:11:34,366 this is not a sprint. These are voters who came from the caucus today where Biden finished 144 00:11:34,366 --> 00:11:36,500 in fourth place. 145 00:11:36,500 --> 00:11:40,833 They said they are not that concerned about the results. Pete Buttigieg's campaign is 146 00:11:42,766 --> 00:11:46,333 very happy with where things stand right now. They are doing their own internal polling 147 00:11:46,333 --> 00:11:51,300 and collection of data from what is happening. And -- and they're very happy with Buttigieg's 148 00:11:52,766 --> 00:11:55,600 performance in rural areas, Judy, and also in suburbs. 149 00:11:55,600 --> 00:12:00,600 They point to that as proof of him being able to win swing voters in a general election. 150 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,066 Obviously, at this precinct, anyway, which Warren won, her supporters are happy. 151 00:12:05,066 --> 00:12:09,900 But, overall, people are expecting and hoping to get results soon, so they can see how things 152 00:12:09,900 --> 00:12:11,966 shake out. 153 00:12:11,966 --> 00:12:14,400 JUDY WOODRUFF: So we do know some results. You were there, so you heard the call there 154 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:18,133 at that caucus that you were attending. 155 00:12:18,133 --> 00:12:21,500 So, we're all waiting to hear -- to hear all those results. 156 00:12:21,500 --> 00:12:23,233 Dan Bush, thank you. 157 00:12:23,233 --> 00:12:27,233 Amy Walter, David Yepsen, and John Yang, thank you all. 158 00:12:27,233 --> 00:12:32,133 With me here in the studio watching it all, New York Times columnist David Brooks and 159 00:12:32,133 --> 00:12:35,500 Washington Post columnist Jonathan Capehart. 160 00:12:35,500 --> 00:12:40,000 We're all sitting here scratching our heads, figuratively, David, trying to figure out 161 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:41,500 what has happened. 162 00:12:41,500 --> 00:12:42,833 DAVID BROOKS: It was faster when they did it by courier pigeon. 163 00:12:42,833 --> 00:12:44,066 (LAUGHTER) 164 00:12:44,066 --> 00:12:46,166 DAVID BROOKS: I am for going back to that. 165 00:12:46,166 --> 00:12:48,766 And this is why government should run the entire health care system, because we are 166 00:12:48,766 --> 00:12:50,800 so good at planning. 167 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,900 I guess a couple things leap out to me. One, first, some candidate should just get up and 168 00:12:53,900 --> 00:12:56,700 give a speech. And every network would cover that person. 169 00:12:56,700 --> 00:12:58,833 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right now. 170 00:12:58,833 --> 00:13:00,433 DAVID BROOKS: And the second point, which David Yepsen alluded to, victory speeches 171 00:13:00,433 --> 00:13:03,666 in Iowa have been important historically. 172 00:13:03,666 --> 00:13:07,200 Barack Obama gave a very important one in 2008. And now we're not going to have a victory 173 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,233 speech that anybody is going to watch because it is going to be in the middle of the morning 174 00:13:09,233 --> 00:13:11,800 or maybe -- or late at night. 175 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:16,066 The second thing -- the third thing that interests me is the turnout, that it apparently is at 176 00:13:16,066 --> 00:13:21,066 2016 and not 2008. And that was a huge difference. 2016 was 172,000. 2008 was 240,000, big difference. 177 00:13:25,233 --> 00:13:30,233 And so that tells me that none of the candidates are really exciting a lot of people here. 178 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:34,933 And so, it's -- that strikes me as -- I don't know what it says about the Democratic Party, 179 00:13:34,933 --> 00:13:39,933 but it's -- so much attention, so much anti-Trump fervor, and yet a lot of people didn't come 180 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,400 out. 181 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,066 JUDY WOODRUFF: And we are waiting to see what that means and which candidate benefited or 182 00:13:44,066 --> 00:13:46,766 was hurt by that, Jonathan Capehart. 183 00:13:46,766 --> 00:13:51,166 But in terms of how the rules changed and the fact that we are still waiting more than 184 00:13:51,166 --> 00:13:56,166 three hours after these caucuses got under way, does it say something about the Democratic 185 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:58,466 Party this year? 186 00:13:58,466 --> 00:14:00,566 JONATHAN CAPEHART, The Washington Post: Well, certainly. 187 00:14:00,566 --> 00:14:04,833 I mean, in a way, it sort of reminds me of healthcare.gov, to your point -- your joke 188 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,433 about putting the government in charge of the health care system. 189 00:14:08,433 --> 00:14:12,866 But, look, these rules were put into effect, Judy, after the 2016 race because of concerns 190 00:14:14,733 --> 00:14:16,066 of what happened the last time... 191 00:14:16,066 --> 00:14:18,100 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 192 00:14:18,100 --> 00:14:20,800 JONATHAN CAPEHART: ... and Senator Sanders not feeling that, you know, his delegates 193 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,500 got their due and that his voters got their due. 194 00:14:23,500 --> 00:14:28,200 And so these rules were put in place to be - - to make the whole thing more transparent, 195 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:33,200 to make it more small-D democratic. And, instead, what we are seeing is the complication, the 196 00:14:34,866 --> 00:14:39,866 complexity of these new rules have been -- has upended the process. 197 00:14:41,833 --> 00:14:46,766 JUDY WOODRUFF: And, I mean, I keep think -- I'm thinking also back to the criticism of the 198 00:14:48,766 --> 00:14:52,966 party over the debates, the fact that the results were tightened this year and wondering 199 00:14:52,966 --> 00:14:57,966 if there is going to be an examination somewhere along the line in this process of how -- of 200 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,400 how changes were made as we went along and as we got closer to this... 201 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:06,300 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Well, one thing that this might -- there are conversations happening 202 00:15:06,300 --> 00:15:09,266 on social media about this, particularly among the political class. 203 00:15:09,266 --> 00:15:14,266 And that is the conversation within the Democratic Party about, why does Iowa go first will now 204 00:15:16,233 --> 00:15:21,133 accelerate. Why should this state that doesn't look demographically like the country and 205 00:15:22,500 --> 00:15:25,300 like the party, why should that state go first? 206 00:15:25,300 --> 00:15:30,300 And, before, the tradition of Iowa going first would sort of hold them safe. I don't think 207 00:15:31,766 --> 00:15:32,766 they are safe anymore. 208 00:15:32,766 --> 00:15:33,766 DAVID BROOKS: Yes. 209 00:15:33,766 --> 00:15:34,866 JUDY WOODRUFF: Fascinating. 210 00:15:34,866 --> 00:15:36,933 DAVID BROOKS: Simplicity is important. 211 00:15:36,933 --> 00:15:39,833 Like, who thought it was a good idea to say, we're going to report your first decision 212 00:15:39,833 --> 00:15:41,100 and then your second? 213 00:15:41,100 --> 00:15:42,300 JUDY WOODRUFF: And then your second. 214 00:15:42,300 --> 00:15:43,900 DAVID BROOKS: And maybe your random musings. 215 00:15:43,900 --> 00:15:44,900 Like, who thought having three different results was a good idea? 216 00:15:44,900 --> 00:15:46,966 (LAUGHTER) 217 00:15:46,966 --> 00:15:50,166 DAVID BROOKS: Simplicity is just very important in any regulatory or any governmental system. 218 00:15:50,166 --> 00:15:55,166 And then -- and they did it because of transparency. This happens to be a pet peeve of mine, that 219 00:15:56,033 --> 00:15:56,700 a friend repeated this... 220 00:15:56,700 --> 00:15:58,200 (CROSSTALK) 221 00:15:58,200 --> 00:15:59,133 JUDY WOODRUFF: You are for more behind the curtain. 222 00:15:59,133 --> 00:15:59,800 DAVID BROOKS: Well, Bill... 223 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:01,866 (CROSSTALK) 224 00:16:01,866 --> 00:16:03,833 DAVID BROOKS: ... from the Brookings Institute once said, government shouldn't be totally 225 00:16:03,833 --> 00:16:04,966 transparent for the same reason that middle-age people should wear clothing. 226 00:16:04,966 --> 00:16:06,433 (LAUGHTER) 227 00:16:06,433 --> 00:16:08,033 DAVID BROOKS: That you don't need to see everything. 228 00:16:08,033 --> 00:16:09,333 JUDY WOODRUFF: I don't think I want to go there right now, David. 229 00:16:09,333 --> 00:16:11,333 (CROSSTALK) 230 00:16:11,333 --> 00:16:13,366 DAVID BROOKS: When you try to make things transparent as your ultimate goal, you're 231 00:16:13,366 --> 00:16:16,800 just going to get everything too complex, and you will cause distrust in everything. 232 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:18,833 JUDY WOODRUFF: All right, meanwhile -- I'm going to come back to the two of you, but 233 00:16:18,833 --> 00:16:23,833 I want to go back to Des Moines and to David Yepsen with Iowa PBS. 234 00:16:25,766 --> 00:16:28,966 David, you have got a little information to shed light on what is happening. 235 00:16:28,966 --> 00:16:33,966 DAVID YEPSEN: Well, it is more of an insight into the fact that the Democratic Party announced 236 00:16:36,733 --> 00:16:41,733 that they were going to have people from the Department of Homeland Security looking at, 237 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:47,400 monitoring the app that reporting was used, so which raises questions about hacking. 238 00:16:49,766 --> 00:16:53,266 You know, in the absence of information, information creates itself. And I think David's -- the 239 00:16:55,233 --> 00:16:59,933 comments made just now are absolutely right. This hurts Iowa. It is an embarrassment. 240 00:17:01,966 --> 00:17:05,233 If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there, no sound is made. And if a caucus 241 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:11,733 is given, and no results are reported, then there is no point to having a caucus. 242 00:17:11,733 --> 00:17:15,566 So, this is a -- this is an embarrassment by the Democratic Party in the state. And 243 00:17:15,566 --> 00:17:19,566 I fully expect that it could well cost them these events in the future. 244 00:17:19,566 --> 00:17:24,100 JUDY WOODRUFF: I want to ask you, John Yang, as somebody who has covered American politics 245 00:17:24,100 --> 00:17:27,800 for a long time, it seems to me the -- and I have been covering quite a few presidential 246 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:32,800 elections as well -- after every primary season, we hear the criticism, well, Iowa is not representative. 247 00:17:34,766 --> 00:17:39,466 Neither is New Hampshire. It is a perennial criticism. But maybe the calls for change 248 00:17:41,066 --> 00:17:44,833 are going to be even more serious and urgent this time. 249 00:17:44,833 --> 00:17:48,833 JOHN YANG: Oh, I think so. 250 00:17:48,833 --> 00:17:53,666 And, also, I think there has always been some talk this year -- I have been hearing talk 251 00:17:53,666 --> 00:17:58,666 this year about how big this has gotten in terms of sort of political tourism, people 252 00:18:01,333 --> 00:18:06,333 coming from outside to see candidates, the large number of us, of reporters, who come 253 00:18:08,033 --> 00:18:10,033 in into this state. 254 00:18:10,033 --> 00:18:14,700 And, also, when they were talking about the huge number of the projected turnout, which 255 00:18:16,666 --> 00:18:21,233 actually doesn't seem to have panned out, there was some talk of, has this, the Iowa 256 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:27,266 caucus system, become a victim of its own success? Has it gotten too big? 257 00:18:27,266 --> 00:18:32,233 And I think that will also play into the talk about whether or not or not this should continue 258 00:18:32,233 --> 00:18:37,233 to be the first stop in this primary process and the stop that sort of launches some candidates 259 00:18:40,900 --> 00:18:42,933 and winnows out others. 260 00:18:42,933 --> 00:18:47,133 JUDY WOODRUFF: Amy Walter, on this question of turnout, is what we're hearing at this 261 00:18:49,133 --> 00:18:53,166 point in the evening the final answer there? Do we know that the turnout wasn't as high 262 00:18:54,333 --> 00:18:56,233 as it was in 2008? Is that for certain? 263 00:18:56,233 --> 00:18:58,166 AMY WALTER: I can't hear anything. 264 00:18:58,166 --> 00:19:00,533 JUDY WOODRUFF: She can't hear. I'm sorry. 265 00:19:00,533 --> 00:19:01,966 I don't know whether... 266 00:19:01,966 --> 00:19:03,000 JOHN YANG: Judy, I'm afraid she can't hear you. 267 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:04,233 JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes, OK. 268 00:19:04,233 --> 00:19:05,800 Well, I can certainly come back to the table. 269 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:07,600 JOHN YANG: She was asking about turnout, whether... 270 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,666 AMY WALTER: Yes. 271 00:19:09,666 --> 00:19:13,600 Oh, it is a good question. And when I was out here about a week-and-a-half ago, nobody 272 00:19:15,500 --> 00:19:19,166 was talking about turnout breaking records. And most folks were thinking maybe it would 273 00:19:21,033 --> 00:19:24,933 hit 2008 levels, but thought it would be somewhere between 2016 and 2008. 274 00:19:24,933 --> 00:19:29,933 And I would have to say one piece of the puzzle here, why is it not at 2008 levels, the first 275 00:19:31,900 --> 00:19:35,333 is, there are just so many candidates. In 2008, you had a choice between Barack Obama 276 00:19:37,233 --> 00:19:40,166 and Hillary Clinton. Obviously, John Edwards was in the mix there, but, really, it was 277 00:19:40,166 --> 00:19:44,433 about two those candidates and the intensity around those two candidates. 278 00:19:44,433 --> 00:19:49,033 Now you have four or five candidates that are up here in the top tier. The secretary 279 00:19:49,033 --> 00:19:53,833 thing goes to this question that Democrats in Iowa are struggling with and Democrats 280 00:19:53,833 --> 00:19:57,666 across the country are struggling with, that there is a clear choice if you are voting 281 00:19:57,666 --> 00:20:01,866 for Bernie Sanders. You know what you are getting with Bernie Sanders and his revolutionary 282 00:20:01,866 --> 00:20:06,866 zeal about reimagining the American political, social, economic system. 283 00:20:08,833 --> 00:20:13,400 But the majority of Iowans and the majority of Democratic voters say: We want to find 284 00:20:14,133 --> 00:20:16,233 a candidate who can win. 285 00:20:16,233 --> 00:20:20,200 And, right now, that candidate has not emerged. There is not the strongest candidate that 286 00:20:22,266 --> 00:20:24,300 voters see to take on Donald Trump. 287 00:20:24,300 --> 00:20:28,000 And so what you are finding with a lot of voters is a sense of, I don't know, a lot 288 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:33,000 of shrugging of the shoulders. And I think there are a lot of voters around the country 289 00:20:34,433 --> 00:20:36,166 hoping that Iowa is going to give them the answer to that. 290 00:20:36,166 --> 00:20:40,600 And, as we have just been discussing, that's - - that may not happen. 291 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,533 JUDY WOODRUFF: And back here at the table, I mean, David Brooks, we have heard from folks 292 00:20:44,533 --> 00:20:46,633 who have been interviewing voters in Iowa. 293 00:20:46,633 --> 00:20:51,233 They have been looking for an answer. I have heard terms along the lines of Iowa voters 294 00:20:51,233 --> 00:20:56,200 frozen in indecision because they were so - - they felt so much pressure to make the 295 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,700 right call with who they support. 296 00:20:59,700 --> 00:21:01,800 DAVID BROOKS: Right. 297 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,866 And more than a quarter decided in the last couple of days, according to some of the more 298 00:21:03,866 --> 00:21:07,633 recent polls, which that suggests nobody really lit a fire that we saw -- you see fires get 299 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,333 lit. Obama lit a fire. Even Rick Santorum on the Republican side in 2012. 300 00:21:12,333 --> 00:21:16,833 You get these surges. And maybe Sanders -- there are some polls suggesting Sanders lit a fire, 301 00:21:16,833 --> 00:21:18,866 but there is really no sense of that. 302 00:21:18,866 --> 00:21:23,133 And what Amy said is exactly right, that they're - - if you are voting tactically, it's not 303 00:21:23,133 --> 00:21:28,133 an exciting feeling. And if it is cold, maybe you don't go out to vote tactically. And so, 304 00:21:29,333 --> 00:21:31,366 you know, we will see what happened. 305 00:21:31,366 --> 00:21:34,133 The latest polls, everyone all over the map. You have got -- now, on Twitter, you have 306 00:21:34,133 --> 00:21:39,100 got a million reports from individual precincts. And you don't want to draw any broad trends 307 00:21:39,100 --> 00:21:42,700 from those reports, but you would have to say, I haven't seen any of them where Joe 308 00:21:42,700 --> 00:21:44,833 Biden did particularly well. 309 00:21:44,833 --> 00:21:49,333 And so I don't know what we can learn. That is just random precincts that people report. 310 00:21:50,566 --> 00:21:53,066 And you now see dozens and dozens on Twitter. 311 00:21:53,066 --> 00:21:55,933 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we're really -- from my perspective, I'm in speculation land, Jonathan 312 00:21:55,933 --> 00:22:00,933 Capehart, because I really want to understand why there isn't more interest in the caucuses 313 00:22:02,866 --> 00:22:05,366 this year, because there's been so much focus on, what was it, 29 Democrats at one point 314 00:22:05,366 --> 00:22:06,366 were running. 315 00:22:06,366 --> 00:22:08,033 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Right. 316 00:22:08,033 --> 00:22:10,500 JUDY WOODRUFF: And we're now down to 12 or 11 or something like that. 317 00:22:10,500 --> 00:22:14,066 But it's not for lack of candidates. You have had a lot going on in Washington with impeachment. 318 00:22:14,066 --> 00:22:16,533 So, we can only speculate at this point about what... 319 00:22:16,533 --> 00:22:17,533 (CROSSTALK) 320 00:22:17,533 --> 00:22:20,100 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Right. 321 00:22:20,100 --> 00:22:22,200 And that would be the great thing about actually having results, having the raw numbers, having 322 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:26,100 the delegates, because then we would really know if there really wasn't any enthusiasm. 323 00:22:26,100 --> 00:22:31,100 I'm looking at it from a different perspective. We're here on Iowa caucus night with probably 324 00:22:33,100 --> 00:22:36,533 more candidates than we have seen in a while, and also more candidates who have a lot of 325 00:22:37,266 --> 00:22:39,400 people who like them. 326 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:43,500 I mean, if you talk to Democrats, they like Senator Sanders. They like Senator Warner 327 00:22:45,533 --> 00:22:48,600 - - Warren. They like Mayor Pete. They like Vice President Biden. They like these people, 328 00:22:50,666 --> 00:22:53,866 which is probably one of the reasons why Iowans, back to David Yepsen's point, the -- it has 329 00:22:55,900 --> 00:22:59,333 become such an event, and, to David's point, where Iowans now feel so much pressure to 330 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,466 make the right decision. 331 00:23:03,466 --> 00:23:07,666 And they have got all these candidates they could choose from. And they don't know what 332 00:23:07,666 --> 00:23:08,666 to do. 333 00:23:08,666 --> 00:23:10,700 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 334 00:23:10,700 --> 00:23:12,300 And they're -- and we all know that is born out of a desire -- at least, we are led to 335 00:23:12,300 --> 00:23:15,133 believe that is born out of a desire to defeat the president. 336 00:23:15,133 --> 00:23:17,200 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Right. 337 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,766 JUDY WOODRUFF: There were a lot of Democrat this year who wanted to jump in the race because 338 00:23:19,766 --> 00:23:21,900 they thought they were the one. 339 00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:24,933 And we have got one of them who is not even competing in Iowa who is spending a whole 340 00:23:24,933 --> 00:23:26,566 lot of money, in Michael Bloomberg... 341 00:23:26,566 --> 00:23:28,700 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Yes. 342 00:23:28,700 --> 00:23:30,300 JUDY WOODRUFF: ... not even competing, who is waiting to see whether anybody emerges 343 00:23:30,300 --> 00:23:32,333 from this. 344 00:23:32,333 --> 00:23:34,300 JONATHAN CAPEHART: In some of the commentary that I have been watching commentary leading 345 00:23:34,300 --> 00:23:38,733 up to our being on tonight, the one thing I found very interesting, there is this fire 346 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,266 within the Democratic Party, within Iowa, to defeat the president. 347 00:23:43,266 --> 00:23:48,266 And a lot of the correspondents would ask Warren supporters or Biden supporters, or 348 00:23:50,266 --> 00:23:53,566 particularly Sanders supporters, if your candidate isn't the one, what are you going to do in 349 00:23:55,633 --> 00:23:58,833 November? And each person said they were going to vote for the nominee. That is something 350 00:23:59,466 --> 00:24:01,000 - - Democrats... 351 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,100 DAVID BROOKS: Except for Sanders and Yang supporters. 352 00:24:03,100 --> 00:24:05,000 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Well, no, no, no, no. These were Sanders supporters who were talked to, 353 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,200 and they said they are going to vote in November for the nominee. 354 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,400 JUDY WOODRUFF: Whoever it is. 355 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,466 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Whoever it is. 356 00:24:10,466 --> 00:24:14,200 And for a party that, they are never organized or happy, that is, I think, a significant 357 00:24:14,666 --> 00:24:16,700 thing. 358 00:24:16,700 --> 00:24:18,800 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, as we come to the end of our half-hour special with still no results, 359 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,733 I'm going to go back to you, John Yang, with maybe a little pull-it-together information. 360 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,666 JOHN YANG: Well, Judy, in the absence of information some of the candidates aren't waiting. 361 00:24:30,733 --> 00:24:35,533 Amy Klobuchar has come out. She has had, anecdotally, again, as David Brooks was talking about, 362 00:24:37,866 --> 00:24:42,433 anecdotal reports from scattered precincts around the state indicating she has had a 363 00:24:42,433 --> 00:24:46,966 fairly good night. And she is talking about punching above her weight. 364 00:24:46,966 --> 00:24:51,966 So, in the absence of information, she's coming out and shaping how this is appearing. And 365 00:24:54,533 --> 00:24:59,533 with no hard information to contradict her, that may well stand for a while. 366 00:25:01,666 --> 00:25:04,566 So, we are, as you say, in the middle of -- in the middle of the night almost here in Iowa. 367 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:10,400 It is dark here, and that is what information we have. 368 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,433 (LAUGHTER) 369 00:25:12,433 --> 00:25:16,033 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, normally, at the end of a program like this, we would giving you 370 00:25:16,033 --> 00:25:18,566 - - we would be wrapping up the results again. 371 00:25:18,566 --> 00:25:22,266 We don't have any results. But we have been telling you everything we know that is happening 372 00:25:22,266 --> 00:25:25,966 on the ground. We know people did vote. They did go to caucuses tonight. We just don't 373 00:25:25,966 --> 00:25:27,433 have the results. 374 00:25:27,433 --> 00:25:29,966 So, we will continue to follow this. 375 00:25:29,966 --> 00:25:34,966 I want to thank all of you in Iowa, John Yang, Amy Walter, David Yepsen. Thank you very much. 376 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,966 And here in the studio with me in Washington, keeping me company, David Brooks and Jonathan 377 00:25:41,566 --> 00:25:43,600 Capehart. 378 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,400 I guess I have never anchored an election night program like this, with no results. 379 00:25:48,133 --> 00:25:50,233 So, it's a first. 380 00:25:50,233 --> 00:25:54,800 That does conclude our "PBS NewsHour" Vote 2020 election special for tonight's Iowa caucuses. 381 00:25:56,766 --> 00:26:00,200 We do have to sign off from our broadcast now, but you can follow -- and we hope you 382 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:05,166 will follow -- the results of these caucuses online at PBS.org/NewsHour and our social 383 00:26:06,066 --> 00:26:08,300 pages for all the latest news. 384 00:26:08,300 --> 00:26:12,933 A huge thank you to all of our colleagues at Iowa PBS, who have provided our team with 385 00:26:12,933 --> 00:26:16,333 invaluable support and partnership tonight. We thank you. 386 00:26:16,333 --> 00:26:20,066 We hope we will see you again tomorrow on the "PBS NewsHour," later tomorrow night for 387 00:26:20,066 --> 00:26:25,066 our special coverage of the State of the Union address starting at 9:00 Eastern, 8:00 Central. 388 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,033 I'm Judy Woodruff. For all of us here at the "NewsHour," thank you, and good night.