JUDY WOODRUFF: Good
evening. I'm Judy Woodruff.

And welcome to this
"PBS NewsHour" Vote
2020 election special.

The Iowa caucuses are under
way, the first contest to
decide who will be the nominees

for president.

In the Republican presidential
caucus, unsurprisingly,
President Donald Trump
is projected to win

the Hawkeye State. As you can
see, with more than 83, almost
84 percent of the precincts

reporting, President Trump has
better than 97 percent of the
vote on the Republican side.

And for the Democrats,
however, we still do
not have any results.

We have a team in
Iowa led by "NewsHour"
correspondent John Yang.

With him on the campus of Drake
University, in Des Moines,
where the caucuses continue,

are Amy Walter of The Cook
Political Report, also the host
of "Politics With Amy Walter"

on WNYC Radio, and longtime
Iowa political reporter David
Yepsen. He's the host of a

program "Iowa Press" on Iowa TV.

So, John Yang, I'm going to
come quickly to you first.
What is going on? The caucuses

began three hours ago. We
expected to get early reports,
at least preliminary numbers.

And, so far, we
don't have anything.

JOHN YANG: We don't
have anything.

The Democratic Party
just released a statement
saying that they are
being very careful. They

say quality control is delaying
the reporting. They say they
have about 25 percent of the

results in.

And they also say that turnout,
which some had predicted
could top the record turnout

in 2008, when Barack Obama
got a big boost here, they say
that turnout is only on pace

to match 2016's turnout,
so significantly lower than
what had been forecast.

The party also says that one
reason for the delay is that,
for the first time, they're

releasing three numbers, rather
than just one. Previously,
they would just tell us the

number of delegates who
had been allocated to
the various candidates.

Tonight, they're also reporting
the raw vote at the beginning
of the night, when people

arrived at the caucuses, and
then after people rearranged
themselves, once the candidate

- - some candidates who didn't
have enough for viability.

There is also some suspicions
that perhaps they won't --
I shouldn't say that. We do

know that the party wants to
release everything at once, all
three of those data points at

once, that perhaps it could
be that they want to avoid the
piecemeal dribs and drabs of

numbers that some of
the campaigns could
use to declare victory.

JUDY WOODRUFF: I think some of
the terms we're using, John,
may be unfamiliar to folks who

don't follow these caucuses.

You mentioned raw vote. The Iowa
Democratic Party had referred
to alignment and then what

they were calling realignment.

I will bring in David Yepsen
at this point, because he has
been covering Iowa politics

for a long time.

David, it's our -- what
we know is that the
Democratic National
Committee reached in and

had the Iowa Democrats change
their process this year. Can
you tell us in a nutshell what

happened? What did they do?

DAVID YEPSEN, Iowa PBS: Well,
in the -- in prior years,
they never released an initial

preference. They never released
a body count, if you will,
because they didn't want to look

too much like a primary. That
would offend New Hampshire.

In 2016, what happened was,
Bernie Sanders' supporters
feel like they won the vote of

the initial people walking
in the room and that Hillary
Clinton won the delegates, and

so she claimed victory.

So, to be transparent,
this year, they're going
to release everything,
the initial preferences

of people when they walked
in the door, then where those
people went who were not in a

group of 15 percent to
qualify for delegates, and
then the delegate count.

And what is happening tonight
is -- goes contrary to what the
state Democratic chairman, Troy

Price, told us in an interview,
which was, these numbers
would be reported by precinct

as they came in.

So it leads to the question,
is there some kind of problem?
Because to have this happen

really detracts from
the importance of the
caucus. To release them
in the middle of the

night is giving the winner no
bounce. And that's why come
here to campaign, to get a

win.

In fairness to the state party,
though, they have had problems
in the past with counts.

And more than one state
chairman has lost his job
because he messed up the count.

So I imagine Mr. Price this
year is being extra careful,
even though all the media people

are mad.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, it
has -- takes on particular
importance because of
all the focus this year

and in the last few years over
election security and election
accuracy and hacking and whether

elections have been
interfered with.

And so even a simple mishap is
going to be - - frankly, has the
potential to be misinterpreted

until something is released.

I just want to come back and
ask you again, David Yepsen --
and, Amy and John Yang, please

feel free to jump in -- just
to understand what is different
about Iowa, as you said,

is, it's not just the
number of people who show
up at these caucuses.

It is that the candidates, in
order to get - - to be counted
at all, to have any chance

of getting delegates to the
national convention, they have
to have more than 15 percent in

each one of these, what,
over 1,600-some-odd caucuses.

And if you don't have
the 15 percent, that
is where the so called
realignment or rearranging

happens.

DAVID YEPSEN: That's
correct, Judy.

The process is about electing
delegates. The nominee is
picked by delegates. And so this

is not a primary. This is
picked by people at caucuses who
elect delegates. And you -- if

they don't have 15 percent of
the whole, as a candidate, your
people have to realign with

a group that does.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Amy Walter,
you are there in the middle
between David and John.

And, like David, you have
covered a lot of these
elections, and like John.

How are you reading what is
going on? We don't have results
yet. There are rules changes

that were imposed by
the Democratic National
Committee. What do we
make of it at this hour?

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political
Report: You know, Judy, it
is a really important point,

this changes in rules. And,
remember, it's not just the
Iowa caucus rules that have been

changed.

Another big rule change was
the fact that superdelegates
are no longer able to cast

their ballot until, at the
convention, if there is a
second ballot. If the person who

has the most pledged
delicate delegates has
the ability to win, they
don't need superdelegates.

The point is, all these changes
were made in response to
Bernie Sanders' campaign in

2016 and the frustration that
many of his supporters felt
that the DNC was putting their

thumb on the scale
for Hillary Clinton.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

AMY WALTER: But it goes to a
bigger question. And I think
we have been seeing it for the

last 10 or so years,
which is, what is the
point of the parties?

The point of the parties not
so long ago was, they make the
rules, and if you want to be

a part of that party, you follow
the rules. Bernie Sanders,
Donald Trump, both candidates

who came from outside the
system, outside of the party,
have really transformed the

way the parties are actually
conducting themselves.

So it is pretty radical,
actually, what is
happening tonight. The
party is worrying so

much about things here in
Iowa, about transparency,
when, not that long ago,
the party could say,

well, if you don't want
to be part of our process,
then just don't come.

You can't say that anymore.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

AMY WALTER: But, look,
I do think that, every
four years, Judy, we come
to Iowa, these caucuses

happen, and there is
something -- at least
since 2012, something
has gone somewhat awry.

And so I do think it is going
to raise once more the question
of, can Iowa still keep

itself the first in the
nation with the current
system that they have,
given how much importance

these caucuses have in
picking the ultimate nominee?

JUDY WOODRUFF: Sure. And
it is important, just
quickly, that you mentioned
the superdelegates.

These, of course, are elected
officials, people who have a
prominent role to play. They may

be governors. They may
be members of Congress.
But they are -- but
they not a part of the

process at this point.
Their role was supposed
to be diminished
under these new rules.

Now I want to go to
"NewsHour" political reporter
Dan Bush, who is on the
Drake University campus

in Des Moines.

Dan, I understand you have got
a little bit of information
about what is going on.

DANIEL BUSH: That's right, Judy.

So, I have been texting with
an official who was involved
in and helped lead the count

at the largest precinct site
in the state. And this official
tells me that there is an

app that can be downloaded to
a phone, tablet or computer
that the precincts are -- were

supposed to use to submit
the results digitally.

That app appears not
to be working for some
precincts around the
state. That is slowing

the process down. This source
said that it might take a
while to sort it out, but that,

generally speaking, otherwise,
the caucus went fairly smoothly.

I spoke with one campaign that
said they expect it to be a long
night. We might not hear results

for at least another
hour, maybe even longer.

JUDY WOODRUFF: But I guess -- I
guess, Dan, I don't understand,
because we had heard earlier

in the day that this app on
-- supposedly available on a
smartphone or a tablet wasn't

working, and that
they were going to be
calling in the results.

So, we don't know what happened.

DANIEL BUSH: That's right.

And some precincts have been
able to call in the results.
Apparently, others have not.

And that has what caused some of
the confusion. And, apparently,
there still are precincts

that are having trouble sticking
with those guidelines and
getting those results in with

that app.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Dan,
let me ask you.

You have been there in the
caucus at -- I guess there are
several caucuses taking place

at Drake University. What
are the voters themselves
saying about this? Are
they asking questions?

DANIEL BUSH: So, the
voters here are waiting
for the results to come in.

You can see behind me supporters
are filling up the room here
at Vice President Biden's

rally, waiting for him
to come on stage. Some
Biden supporters said,
listen, this is a marathon,

this is not a sprint. These are
voters who came from the caucus
today where Biden finished

in fourth place.

They said they are not that
concerned about the results.
Pete Buttigieg's campaign is

very happy with where things
stand right now. They are doing
their own internal polling

and collection of data from what
is happening. And -- and they're
very happy with Buttigieg's

performance in rural areas,
Judy, and also in suburbs.

They point to that as proof
of him being able to win swing
voters in a general election.

Obviously, at this precinct,
anyway, which Warren won,
her supporters are happy.

But, overall, people
are expecting and hoping
to get results soon, so
they can see how things

shake out.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So we do know
some results. You were there,
so you heard the call there

at that caucus that
you were attending.

So, we're all waiting to hear
-- to hear all those results.

Dan Bush, thank you.

Amy Walter, David Yepsen,
and John Yang, thank you all.

With me here in the studio
watching it all, New York Times
columnist David Brooks and

Washington Post columnist
Jonathan Capehart.

We're all sitting here
scratching our heads,
figuratively, David,
trying to figure out

what has happened.

DAVID BROOKS: It was faster when
they did it by courier pigeon.

(LAUGHTER)

DAVID BROOKS: I am for
going back to that.

And this is why government
should run the entire health
care system, because we are

so good at planning.

I guess a couple things leap
out to me. One, first, some
candidate should just get up and

give a speech. And every
network would cover that person.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Right now.

DAVID BROOKS: And the second
point, which David Yepsen
alluded to, victory speeches

in Iowa have been
important historically.

Barack Obama gave a
very important one in
2008. And now we're not
going to have a victory

speech that anybody is going
to watch because it is going to
be in the middle of the morning

or maybe -- or late at night.

The second thing -- the
third thing that interests
me is the turnout, that
it apparently is at

2016 and not 2008. And
that was a huge difference.
2016 was 172,000. 2008 was
240,000, big difference.

And so that tells me that none
of the candidates are really
exciting a lot of people here.

And so, it's -- that strikes
me as -- I don't know what it
says about the Democratic Party,

but it's -- so much attention,
so much anti-Trump fervor, and
yet a lot of people didn't come

out.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And we are
waiting to see what that means
and which candidate benefited or

was hurt by that,
Jonathan Capehart.

But in terms of how the rules
changed and the fact that we
are still waiting more than

three hours after these caucuses
got under way, does it say
something about the Democratic

Party this year?

JONATHAN CAPEHART,
The Washington Post:
Well, certainly.

I mean, in a way, it sort of
reminds me of healthcare.gov,
to your point -- your joke

about putting the
government in charge of
the health care system.

But, look, these rules were put
into effect, Judy, after the
2016 race because of concerns

of what happened
the last time...

JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

JONATHAN CAPEHART: ... and
Senator Sanders not feeling
that, you know, his delegates

got their due and that
his voters got their due.

And so these rules were put
in place to be - - to make the
whole thing more transparent,

to make it more small-D
democratic. And, instead,
what we are seeing is
the complication, the

complexity of these new
rules have been -- has
upended the process.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, I mean, I
keep think -- I'm thinking also
back to the criticism of the

party over the debates,
the fact that the
results were tightened
this year and wondering

if there is going to be
an examination somewhere
along the line in this
process of how -- of

how changes were made
as we went along and as
we got closer to this...

JONATHAN CAPEHART: Well, one
thing that this might -- there
are conversations happening

on social media about
this, particularly among
the political class.

And that is the conversation
within the Democratic
Party about, why does
Iowa go first will now

accelerate. Why should
this state that doesn't
look demographically
like the country and

like the party, why should
that state go first?

And, before, the tradition of
Iowa going first would sort of
hold them safe. I don't think

they are safe anymore.

DAVID BROOKS: Yes.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Fascinating.

DAVID BROOKS:
Simplicity is important.

Like, who thought it was a
good idea to say, we're going
to report your first decision

and then your second?

JUDY WOODRUFF: And
then your second.

DAVID BROOKS: And maybe
your random musings.

Like, who thought
having three different
results was a good idea?

(LAUGHTER)

DAVID BROOKS: Simplicity is just
very important in any regulatory
or any governmental system.

And then -- and they did
it because of transparency.
This happens to be a
pet peeve of mine, that

a friend repeated this...

(CROSSTALK)

JUDY WOODRUFF: You are for
more behind the curtain.

DAVID BROOKS: Well, Bill...

(CROSSTALK)

DAVID BROOKS: ... from the
Brookings Institute once said,
government shouldn't be totally

transparent for the same
reason that middle-age
people should wear clothing.

(LAUGHTER)

DAVID BROOKS: That you don't
need to see everything.

JUDY WOODRUFF: I don't
think I want to go
there right now, David.

(CROSSTALK)

DAVID BROOKS: When you try
to make things transparent
as your ultimate goal, you're

just going to get everything
too complex, and you will
cause distrust in everything.

JUDY WOODRUFF: All right,
meanwhile -- I'm going to come
back to the two of you, but

I want to go back to
Des Moines and to David
Yepsen with Iowa PBS.

David, you have got a
little information to shed
light on what is happening.

DAVID YEPSEN: Well, it is more
of an insight into the fact that
the Democratic Party announced

that they were going to have
people from the Department of
Homeland Security looking at,

monitoring the app that
reporting was used, so which
raises questions about hacking.

You know, in the absence
of information, information
creates itself. And I
think David's -- the

comments made just now are
absolutely right. This hurts
Iowa. It is an embarrassment.

If a tree falls in the forest,
and no one is there, no sound
is made. And if a caucus

is given, and no results are
reported, then there is no
point to having a caucus.

So, this is a -- this is an
embarrassment by the Democratic
Party in the state. And

I fully expect that it
could well cost them these
events in the future.

JUDY WOODRUFF: I want to ask
you, John Yang, as somebody who
has covered American politics

for a long time, it
seems to me the -- and
I have been covering
quite a few presidential

elections as well -- after
every primary season, we
hear the criticism, well,
Iowa is not representative.

Neither is New Hampshire. It
is a perennial criticism. But
maybe the calls for change

are going to be even more
serious and urgent this time.

JOHN YANG: Oh, I think so.

And, also, I think there has
always been some talk this year
-- I have been hearing talk

this year about how big this
has gotten in terms of sort
of political tourism, people

coming from outside to see
candidates, the large number
of us, of reporters, who come

in into this state.

And, also, when they were
talking about the huge number
of the projected turnout, which

actually doesn't seem to have
panned out, there was some
talk of, has this, the Iowa

caucus system, become a
victim of its own success?
Has it gotten too big?

And I think that will also play
into the talk about whether or
not or not this should continue

to be the first stop in
this primary process and
the stop that sort of
launches some candidates

and winnows out others.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Amy Walter,
on this question of turnout,
is what we're hearing at this

point in the evening the final
answer there? Do we know that
the turnout wasn't as high

as it was in 2008?
Is that for certain?

AMY WALTER: I can't
hear anything.

JUDY WOODRUFF: She
can't hear. I'm sorry.

I don't know whether...

JOHN YANG: Judy, I'm
afraid she can't hear you.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes, OK.

Well, I can certainly
come back to the table.

JOHN YANG: She was asking
about turnout, whether...

AMY WALTER: Yes.

Oh, it is a good question.
And when I was out here about
a week-and-a-half ago, nobody

was talking about turnout
breaking records. And most folks
were thinking maybe it would

hit 2008 levels, but thought
it would be somewhere
between 2016 and 2008.

And I would have to say
one piece of the puzzle
here, why is it not at
2008 levels, the first

is, there are just so many
candidates. In 2008, you had
a choice between Barack Obama

and Hillary Clinton. Obviously,
John Edwards was in the mix
there, but, really, it was

about two those candidates
and the intensity around
those two candidates.

Now you have four or five
candidates that are up here
in the top tier. The secretary

thing goes to this question
that Democrats in Iowa are
struggling with and Democrats

across the country
are struggling with,
that there is a clear
choice if you are voting

for Bernie Sanders. You know
what you are getting with Bernie
Sanders and his revolutionary

zeal about reimagining
the American political,
social, economic system.

But the majority of Iowans
and the majority of Democratic
voters say: We want to find

a candidate who can win.

And, right now, that candidate
has not emerged. There is not
the strongest candidate that

voters see to take
on Donald Trump.

And so what you are finding
with a lot of voters is a
sense of, I don't know, a lot

of shrugging of the shoulders.
And I think there are a lot
of voters around the country

hoping that Iowa is going to
give them the answer to that.

And, as we have just
been discussing, that's
- - that may not happen.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And back here
at the table, I mean, David
Brooks, we have heard from folks

who have been interviewing
voters in Iowa.

They have been looking for
an answer. I have heard terms
along the lines of Iowa voters

frozen in indecision because
they were so - - they felt
so much pressure to make the

right call with
who they support.

DAVID BROOKS: Right.

And more than a quarter decided
in the last couple of days,
according to some of the more

recent polls, which that
suggests nobody really
lit a fire that we saw
-- you see fires get

lit. Obama lit a fire.
Even Rick Santorum on the
Republican side in 2012.

You get these surges. And maybe
Sanders -- there are some polls
suggesting Sanders lit a fire,

but there is really
no sense of that.

And what Amy said is exactly
right, that they're - - if you
are voting tactically, it's not

an exciting feeling. And if
it is cold, maybe you don't go
out to vote tactically. And so,

you know, we will
see what happened.

The latest polls, everyone
all over the map. You have got
-- now, on Twitter, you have

got a million reports
from individual precincts.
And you don't want to
draw any broad trends

from those reports, but you
would have to say, I haven't
seen any of them where Joe

Biden did particularly well.

And so I don't know what we
can learn. That is just random
precincts that people report.

And you now see dozens
and dozens on Twitter.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well,
we're really -- from
my perspective, I'm in
speculation land, Jonathan

Capehart, because I really want
to understand why there isn't
more interest in the caucuses

this year, because there's
been so much focus on, what was
it, 29 Democrats at one point

were running.

JONATHAN CAPEHART: Right.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And we're
now down to 12 or 11
or something like that.

But it's not for lack
of candidates. You have
had a lot going on in
Washington with impeachment.

So, we can only speculate
at this point about what...

(CROSSTALK)

JONATHAN CAPEHART: Right.

And that would be the
great thing about actually
having results, having
the raw numbers, having

the delegates, because then
we would really know if there
really wasn't any enthusiasm.

I'm looking at it from
a different perspective.
We're here on Iowa caucus
night with probably

more candidates than we have
seen in a while, and also more
candidates who have a lot of

people who like them.

I mean, if you talk to
Democrats, they like
Senator Sanders. They
like Senator Warner

- - Warren. They like Mayor
Pete. They like Vice President
Biden. They like these people,

which is probably one of
the reasons why Iowans,
back to David Yepsen's
point, the -- it has

become such an event, and, to
David's point, where Iowans
now feel so much pressure to

make the right decision.

And they have got all these
candidates they could choose
from. And they don't know what

to do.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

And they're -- and we all know
that is born out of a desire
-- at least, we are led to

believe that is born out of a
desire to defeat the president.

JONATHAN CAPEHART: Right.

JUDY WOODRUFF: There were a lot
of Democrat this year who wanted
to jump in the race because

they thought they were the one.

And we have got one of them
who is not even competing in
Iowa who is spending a whole

lot of money, in
Michael Bloomberg...

JONATHAN CAPEHART: Yes.

JUDY WOODRUFF: ... not even
competing, who is waiting to
see whether anybody emerges

from this.

JONATHAN CAPEHART: In some of
the commentary that I have been
watching commentary leading

up to our being on tonight,
the one thing I found very
interesting, there is this fire

within the Democratic
Party, within Iowa, to
defeat the president.

And a lot of the correspondents
would ask Warren supporters
or Biden supporters, or

particularly Sanders supporters,
if your candidate isn't the
one, what are you going to do in

November? And each person said
they were going to vote for
the nominee. That is something

- - Democrats...

DAVID BROOKS: Except for
Sanders and Yang supporters.

JONATHAN CAPEHART: Well, no,
no, no, no. These were Sanders
supporters who were talked to,

and they said they
are going to vote in
November for the nominee.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Whoever it is.

JONATHAN CAPEHART:
Whoever it is.

And for a party that, they are
never organized or happy, that
is, I think, a significant

thing.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, as we come
to the end of our half-hour
special with still no results,

I'm going to go back to you,
John Yang, with maybe a little
pull-it-together information.

JOHN YANG: Well, Judy, in the
absence of information some of
the candidates aren't waiting.

Amy Klobuchar has come out. She
has had, anecdotally, again, as
David Brooks was talking about,

anecdotal reports from scattered
precincts around the state
indicating she has had a

fairly good night. And
she is talking about
punching above her weight.

So, in the absence of
information, she's coming
out and shaping how
this is appearing. And

with no hard information
to contradict her, that
may well stand for a while.

So, we are, as you say, in the
middle of -- in the middle of
the night almost here in Iowa.

It is dark here, and that
is what information we have.

(LAUGHTER)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, normally,
at the end of a program like
this, we would giving you

- - we would be wrapping
up the results again.

We don't have any
results. But we have been
telling you everything
we know that is happening

on the ground. We know people
did vote. They did go to
caucuses tonight. We just don't

have the results.

So, we will continue
to follow this.

I want to thank all of
you in Iowa, John Yang,
Amy Walter, David Yepsen.
Thank you very much.

And here in the studio
with me in Washington,
keeping me company,
David Brooks and Jonathan

Capehart.

I guess I have never anchored
an election night program
like this, with no results.

So, it's a first.

That does conclude our
"PBS NewsHour" Vote 2020
election special for
tonight's Iowa caucuses.

We do have to sign off from
our broadcast now, but you
can follow -- and we hope you

will follow -- the results
of these caucuses online at
PBS.org/NewsHour and our social

pages for all the latest news.

A huge thank you to all of our
colleagues at Iowa PBS, who
have provided our team with

invaluable support
and partnership
tonight. We thank you.

We hope we will see you again
tomorrow on the "PBS NewsHour,"
later tomorrow night for

our special coverage of
the State of the Union
address starting at 9:00
Eastern, 8:00 Central.

I'm Judy Woodruff. For all
of us here at the "NewsHour,"
thank you, and good night.