WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:05.000 JUDY WOODRUFF: Russian military drills that began today in Belarus involve 30,000 troops 00:05.840 --> 00:10.840 and are expected to take place over 10 days. Naval drills are also being conducted in the Black Sea. 00:12.480 --> 00:16.560 The exercises come as more than 100,000 Russian troops 00:16.560 --> 00:21.560 surround Ukraine and as crisis diplomacy continues in Moscow, Berlin and Brussels. 00:23.040 --> 00:24.640 Nick Schifrin starts our coverage 00:24.640 --> 00:29.640 with a look at today's movements in Belarus on the Belarus-Ukraine border. 00:29.840 --> 00:34.840 NICK SCHIFRIN: With tanks, artillery, missiles capable of reaching all of Ukraine, and its 00:42.640 --> 00:47.640 most advanced jet, Russia's Belarus military exercises are the largest since the Cold War. 00:48.160 --> 00:52.720 It's a display of military might near the border with Ukraine and just a few hundred miles from 00:52.720 --> 00:57.720 the capital, Kiev. And past the sailboats off annexed Crimea, Russian ships hold naval drills. 00:59.120 --> 01:02.800 Ukraine's Foreign Ministry today said those ships make Black Sea navigation 01:02.800 --> 01:05.840 virtually impossible and are part of Russia's hybrid war. 01:08.400 --> 01:13.120 Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defense Ministry prepared in case of a shooting war. Just north of Crimea, 01:13.120 --> 01:18.120 soldiers practice securing an enemy-occupied building. Ukraine uses drones from NATO member 01:18.640 --> 01:23.640 Turkey that have successfully targeted Russian tanks in previous conflicts 01:26.240 --> 01:30.720 and, to a rock soundtrack, show off American Javelin anti-tank missiles 01:30.720 --> 01:34.080 that senior U.S. officials say are now deployed to key transit points. 01:34.720 --> 01:39.720 But, at the same time, diplomacy continues. In Berlin, mid-level officials from Germany, 01:39.840 --> 01:42.800 France, Ukraine and Russia met in a format that's focused on the 01:42.800 --> 01:46.400 front lines of the 8-year-old conflict in Eastern Ukraine. 01:46.400 --> 01:51.280 In Moscow, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss visited Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, 01:51.280 --> 01:53.840 and, at first, the diplomacy was relatively diplomatic. 01:53.840 --> 01:57.840 SERGEY LAVROV, Russian Foreign Minister (through translator): 01:57.840 --> 02:01.840 Relations can be normalized only through mutually respectful dialogue, 02:01.840 --> 02:06.800 an equal dialogue, and dialogue based on recognition of each other's legitimate interests, 02:06.800 --> 02:09.040 a search for mutually acceptable solutions. 02:09.040 --> 02:10.640 LIZ TRUSS, British Foreign Minister: The reality is, 02:10.640 --> 02:15.640 we cannot ignore the buildup of over 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border 02:16.400 --> 02:20.880 and the attempts to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. 02:20.880 --> 02:23.360 NICK SCHIFRIN: But after their meeting, in a press conference: 02:23.360 --> 02:28.360 SERGEY LAVROV (through translator): I'm honestly disappointed that what we have is a conversation 02:29.200 --> 02:34.200 between a dumb and a deaf person. They say Russia is waiting until the ground freezes like a stone, 02:34.240 --> 02:38.800 so its tanks can easily cross into Ukrainian territory. I think the ground was like that 02:38.800 --> 02:43.200 today with our British colleagues, from which numerous facts that we produced bounced off. 02:43.200 --> 02:48.200 NICK SCHIFRIN: After that, Lavrov exited stage left, leaving Truss standing alone. 02:48.240 --> 02:51.280 There was friendlier choreography in Brussels between British Prime 02:51.280 --> 02:55.200 Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. 02:55.200 --> 02:59.440 Johnson said Putin's endgame was still unknown, but British intelligence was grim. 02:59.440 --> 03:02.400 BORIS JOHNSON, British Prime Minister: This is probably the most dangerous moment, 03:03.120 --> 03:06.880 I would say, in the course of the next few days, in what is 03:06.880 --> 03:11.880 the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades. 03:11.920 --> 03:13.680 NICK SCHIFRIN: In response to that crisis, 03:13.680 --> 03:18.680 British troops today arrived in Poland and U.S. equipment redeployed to NATO member Romania. 03:18.880 --> 03:23.200 Senior officials tell "PBS NewsHour" they're worried about any Ukraine conflict spreading 03:23.200 --> 03:27.360 into NATO, as State Department counselor Derek Chollet suggested in Bucharest. 03:27.360 --> 03:32.360 DEREK CHOLLET, State Department Counselor: Clearly, Romania is facing acute threats 03:32.800 --> 03:37.200 from the situation unfolding not too far away from here with the Russian escalation. 03:37.200 --> 03:40.400 NICK SCHIFRIN: And to discuss that escalation of 03:40.400 --> 03:44.160 Russian troops massing on the Ukraine border, I'm joined by Michael Kofman, 03:44.160 --> 03:49.160 a senior fellow for Russian studies at the CNA, Center for Naval Analyses. 03:49.360 --> 03:52.000 Michael Kofman, welcome back to the "NewsHour." 03:52.800 --> 03:56.000 We have got a map that shows how Ukraine is really surrounded 03:56.800 --> 04:01.800 from the north in Belarus, from the northeast, from the southeast, and from the south in Crimea. 04:02.640 --> 04:05.280 What's your assessment of the Russian buildup right now? 04:05.280 --> 04:08.080 MICHAEL KOFMAN, Center for Naval Analyses: The Russian buildup is 04:08.080 --> 04:09.840 entering a fairly advanced stage. 04:10.720 --> 04:14.640 You have seen troops arrive and actually grab prepositioned equipment. 04:14.640 --> 04:19.640 There is a sizable Russian deployment in Belarus just north of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. 04:20.240 --> 04:23.840 There are a lot of Russian troops both northeast and east of Ukraine. 04:23.840 --> 04:26.880 And there's a fairly sizable Russian deployment in Crimea. 04:26.880 --> 04:30.080 Plus, there are additional ships along the way, amphibious assault ships that 04:30.080 --> 04:34.800 are bringing even more troops to reinforce the Russian forces in Crimea. So what you're 04:34.800 --> 04:39.800 beginning to see are kind of what look like the final stages of a very sizable military buildup, 04:40.480 --> 04:45.480 a military that is positioning itself to be able to conduct a large-scale military operation. 04:45.920 --> 04:50.920 NICK SCHIFRIN: And last time we spoke, about a month ago on this show, you pointed out how 04:51.360 --> 04:56.360 a lot of the hardware was in place, but the personnel wasn't quite in place yet. 04:57.520 --> 05:00.560 Are that -- is that personnel now in place? 05:00.560 --> 05:03.360 MICHAEL KOFMAN: Yes, that picture very much has changed. 05:03.360 --> 05:07.280 So we have seen personnel arrive, grab their equipment, 05:07.280 --> 05:11.040 move much closer to the Ukrainian border towards final staging grounds, 05:11.040 --> 05:16.040 begin to conduct exercises that bring the personnel up to higher readiness levels. 05:16.320 --> 05:20.640 You have seen a lot of tents deployed in field camps with troops in them, right? 05:20.640 --> 05:24.240 A lot of logistics have shown up, the kind of things that you would see 05:24.240 --> 05:28.240 a military bring that's not necessarily preparing for an exercise, 05:28.240 --> 05:31.600 but more than likely is positioning itself for an operation, 05:31.600 --> 05:36.320 everything from medical, fuel, ammunition, communications, these kinds of elements. 05:36.320 --> 05:41.320 You have seen aviation shift over, aircraft, helicopters. And you have seen troops come 05:42.000 --> 05:47.000 very close to the borders. That equipment that in the past we saw based maybe 200, 300 kilometers 05:48.480 --> 05:52.720 away from Ukraine, kind of staging there, they have grabbed that gear and they have 05:52.720 --> 05:56.560 gone down to maybe within 30 kilometers of the Ukrainian border at this point. 05:56.560 --> 06:01.560 NICK SCHIFRIN: One other element of the presence that senior officials I talk to 06:02.640 --> 06:05.760 are very worried about is electronic warfare, 06:05.760 --> 06:10.760 Russia's ability to cut off Ukrainian cell phones, Internet, satellites. 06:11.360 --> 06:13.120 How large, how real is that threat? 06:13.120 --> 06:14.800 MICHAEL KOFMAN: It's very real. 06:14.800 --> 06:19.800 You have seen the Russian military bring all sorts of different types of electronic warfare systems, 06:20.720 --> 06:25.680 some fairly high-level. They're accompanying the various units that have deployed there. 06:25.680 --> 06:29.520 And Russians are quite advanced in electronic fire operations, 06:29.520 --> 06:32.080 as they call them, information operations. 06:32.080 --> 06:34.720 And so you could see a combination of both cyberwarfare, 06:35.680 --> 06:39.360 which is likely to have some effects, but, more importantly, electronic warfare, both kind at the 06:39.360 --> 06:43.520 tactical level, but also fairly high-end systems that might have some strategic effects as well. 06:43.520 --> 06:45.040 NICK SCHIFRIN: 06:45.040 --> 06:50.040 We were focused on the exercises today in Belarus. We saw that at the top of the story. 06:50.480 --> 06:55.360 And I want to go back to another map to show why people are so concerned 06:55.360 --> 07:00.080 about those troops in Belarus, the fear of troops in Belarus coming down 07:00.880 --> 07:05.880 toward Kyiv in a pincer move, surrounding Kyiv, U.S. officials I talk to very worried about that. 07:06.960 --> 07:10.240 What does that say about Russia's intentions? 07:10.240 --> 07:11.520 MICHAEL KOFMAN: Sure. 07:13.040 --> 07:18.000 Those scary red arrows that you have on the map are actually a fairly realistic depiction of at 07:18.000 --> 07:22.480 least one of the likely Russian courses of action. That is that they intend to encircle the Ukrainian 07:22.480 --> 07:27.480 capital and impose regime change, perhaps install a pro-Russian regime or change the constitution. 07:29.440 --> 07:34.440 You're also likely to see a fairly large incursion by Russian troops both south from Crimea, 07:36.080 --> 07:41.080 the Crimean Peninsula, and also in the east, perhaps enveloping the bulk of Ukraine's forces, 07:42.880 --> 07:47.880 which are currently deployed in the southeast along the line of control opposite the Donbass, 07:48.720 --> 07:50.800 that is, the occupied separatist territory. 07:50.800 --> 07:54.480 So you're likely going to see a fairly sizable Russia incursion, potentially, 07:54.480 --> 07:58.080 across the Eastern regions of Ukraine, looking to envelop or cut off 07:58.080 --> 08:01.640 a large number of the Ukrainian military that is based there. 08:01.640 --> 08:06.640 NICK SCHIFRIN: Now, senior U.S. officials who I talk to are as concerned as they are, 08:08.080 --> 08:13.080 given the things that you're describing, and the capacities of Russia that are on the border, 08:13.360 --> 08:18.360 but they do say that Vladimir Putin has not made a final decision yet. 08:18.640 --> 08:23.640 And, certainly, the U.S., the West, in what they say is a united way are trying to come up 08:24.560 --> 08:28.800 with a Russian off-ramp. But those things that the West 08:28.800 --> 08:33.600 are offering Russia are far from what Russia's core demands are. 08:33.600 --> 08:37.360 So do you see any possible diplomatic off-ramp in this moment? 08:37.360 --> 08:42.360 MICHAEL KOFMAN: I have sadly been pessimistic all along looking some months out at this. 08:42.560 --> 08:47.560 And I have seen the likelihood for diplomacy to succeed is not very good, fairly slim. Now, of 08:48.160 --> 08:53.160 course, I agree. We don't know if Vladimir Putin has made a decision. That's very true. Is there 08:54.160 --> 08:59.160 a chance for diplomacy to succeed? Well, I think the window for it is unfortunately closing, right? 08:59.760 --> 09:04.160 It's not necessarily the Russia has to conduct a military operation now that they have deployed, 09:04.160 --> 09:09.040 but they do appear to be increasingly in a sort of go-or-no-go posture, so they're likely 09:09.040 --> 09:14.040 to make a decision in the coming weeks, not months. And by weeks, I mean only a few weeks. 09:14.480 --> 09:19.480 So far, in terms of what we have seen on public diplomacy, I have not witnessed anything that 09:19.520 --> 09:24.240 gives me optimism. Now, it is a fair chance that, behind the scenes, there's some kind of backdoor 09:24.240 --> 09:28.720 diplomacy taking place that none of us know about. And maybe there's some movement there. 09:28.720 --> 09:33.520 Russia can always back down. Vladimir Putin can sort of take what he's been given on the table, 09:33.520 --> 09:38.520 declare victory, and pull back from the border. However, I find this a fairly unlikely scenario. 09:38.800 --> 09:42.160 And I'm worried that I might be right about my pessimism going into this. 09:42.160 --> 09:47.040 If you recall our conversation months ago, a lot of the indicators I suggested that would tell us 09:47.040 --> 09:52.040 that they are serious about military operation and this -- a renewed invasion of Ukraine, 09:52.080 --> 09:55.760 they have all shown up, literally almost every single one of them. 09:55.760 --> 09:58.640 So, we are now looking at a very different Russian force posture. 09:58.640 --> 10:01.040 NICK SCHIFRIN: Michael Kofman, I'm going to have to leave it there. 10:01.040 --> 10:03.840 Michael Kofman, Center for Naval Analyses, thank you very much. 10:03.840 --> 10:08.840 MICHAEL KOFMAN: Thanks. My pleasure.