JUDY WOODRUFF: Russian military
drills that began today in
Belarus involve 30,000 troops

and are expected to take place
over 10 days. Naval drills are also
being conducted in the Black Sea.

The exercises come as more
than 100,000 Russian troops

surround Ukraine and as crisis diplomacy
continues in Moscow, Berlin and Brussels.

Nick Schifrin starts our coverage

with a look at today's movements in
Belarus on the Belarus-Ukraine border.

NICK SCHIFRIN: With tanks,
artillery, missiles capable of
reaching all of Ukraine, and its

most advanced jet, Russia's
Belarus military exercises are
the largest since the Cold War.

It's a display of military might
near the border with Ukraine and
just a few hundred miles from

the capital, Kiev. And past the
sailboats off annexed Crimea,
Russian ships hold naval drills.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry today said
those ships make Black Sea navigation

virtually impossible and are
part of Russia's hybrid war.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defense
Ministry prepared in case of a
shooting war. Just north of Crimea,

soldiers practice securing an
enemy-occupied building. Ukraine
uses drones from NATO member

Turkey that have successfully targeted
Russian tanks in previous conflicts

and, to a rock soundtrack, show off
American Javelin anti-tank missiles

that senior U.S. officials say are
now deployed to key transit points.

But, at the same time, diplomacy
continues. In Berlin, mid-level
officials from Germany,

France, Ukraine and Russia met
in a format that's focused on the

front lines of the 8-year-old
conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

In Moscow, British Foreign
Minister Liz Truss visited Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov,

and, at first, the diplomacy
was relatively diplomatic.

SERGEY LAVROV, Russian Foreign
Minister (through translator):

Relations can be normalized only
through mutually respectful dialogue,

an equal dialogue, and dialogue
based on recognition of each
other's legitimate interests,

a search for mutually
acceptable solutions.

LIZ TRUSS, British Foreign
Minister: The reality is,

we cannot ignore the buildup of over
100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border

and the attempts to undermine Ukrainian
sovereignty and territorial integrity.

NICK SCHIFRIN: But after their
meeting, in a press conference:

SERGEY LAVROV (through translator):
I'm honestly disappointed that
what we have is a conversation

between a dumb and a deaf person.
They say Russia is waiting until
the ground freezes like a stone,

so its tanks can easily cross
into Ukrainian territory. I
think the ground was like that

today with our British colleagues,
from which numerous facts
that we produced bounced off.

NICK SCHIFRIN: After that, Lavrov exited
stage left, leaving Truss standing alone.

There was friendlier choreography
in Brussels between British Prime

Minister Boris Johnson and NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

Johnson said Putin's endgame
was still unknown, but
British intelligence was grim.

BORIS JOHNSON, British Prime
Minister: This is probably
the most dangerous moment,

I would say, in the course of
the next few days, in what is

the biggest security crisis that
Europe has faced for decades.

NICK SCHIFRIN: In response to that crisis,

British troops today arrived
in Poland and U.S. equipment
redeployed to NATO member Romania.

Senior officials tell "PBS
NewsHour" they're worried about
any Ukraine conflict spreading

into NATO, as State Department counselor
Derek Chollet suggested in Bucharest.

DEREK CHOLLET, State Department Counselor:
Clearly, Romania is facing acute threats

from the situation unfolding
not too far away from here
with the Russian escalation.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And to
discuss that escalation of

Russian troops massing on the Ukraine
border, I'm joined by Michael Kofman,

a senior fellow for Russian studies
at the CNA, Center for Naval Analyses.

Michael Kofman, welcome
back to the "NewsHour."

We have got a map that shows
how Ukraine is really surrounded

from the north in Belarus, from
the northeast, from the southeast,
and from the south in Crimea.

What's your assessment of the
Russian buildup right now?

MICHAEL KOFMAN, Center for Naval
Analyses: The Russian buildup is

entering a fairly advanced stage.

You have seen troops arrive and
actually grab prepositioned equipment.

There is a sizable Russian
deployment in Belarus just north
of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

There are a lot of Russian troops
both northeast and east of Ukraine.

And there's a fairly sizable
Russian deployment in Crimea.

Plus, there are additional ships along
the way, amphibious assault ships that

are bringing even more troops
to reinforce the Russian forces
in Crimea. So what you're

beginning to see are kind of what
look like the final stages of a
very sizable military buildup,

a military that is positioning
itself to be able to conduct a
large-scale military operation.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And last time
we spoke, about a month ago on
this show, you pointed out how

a lot of the hardware was in place, but
the personnel wasn't quite in place yet.

Are that -- is that
personnel now in place?

MICHAEL KOFMAN: Yes, that
picture very much has changed.

So we have seen personnel
arrive, grab their equipment,

move much closer to the Ukrainian
border towards final staging grounds,

begin to conduct exercises that bring the
personnel up to higher readiness levels.

You have seen a lot of tents deployed in
field camps with troops in them, right?

A lot of logistics have shown up,
the kind of things that you would see

a military bring that's not
necessarily preparing for an exercise,

but more than likely is positioning
itself for an operation,

everything from medical, fuel, ammunition,
communications, these kinds of elements.

You have seen aviation shift
over, aircraft, helicopters.
And you have seen troops come

very close to the borders. That
equipment that in the past we saw
based maybe 200, 300 kilometers

away from Ukraine, kind of staging there,
they have grabbed that gear and they have

gone down to maybe within 30 kilometers
of the Ukrainian border at this point.

NICK SCHIFRIN: One other element of the
presence that senior officials I talk to

are very worried about
is electronic warfare,

Russia's ability to cut off Ukrainian
cell phones, Internet, satellites.

How large, how real is that threat?

MICHAEL KOFMAN: It's very real.

You have seen the Russian military
bring all sorts of different types
of electronic warfare systems,

some fairly high-level. They're
accompanying the various units
that have deployed there.

And Russians are quite advanced
in electronic fire operations,

as they call them, information operations.

And so you could see a
combination of both cyberwarfare,

which is likely to have some
effects, but, more importantly,
electronic warfare, both kind at the

tactical level, but also fairly
high-end systems that might have
some strategic effects as well.

NICK SCHIFRIN:

We were focused on the exercises
today in Belarus. We saw
that at the top of the story.

And I want to go back to another map
to show why people are so concerned

about those troops in Belarus, the
fear of troops in Belarus coming down

toward Kyiv in a pincer move,
surrounding Kyiv, U.S. officials
I talk to very worried about that.

What does that say about
Russia's intentions?

MICHAEL KOFMAN: Sure.

Those scary red arrows that you
have on the map are actually a
fairly realistic depiction of at

least one of the likely Russian
courses of action. That is that they
intend to encircle the Ukrainian

capital and impose regime change,
perhaps install a pro-Russian
regime or change the constitution.

You're also likely to see a
fairly large incursion by Russian
troops both south from Crimea,

the Crimean Peninsula, and also
in the east, perhaps enveloping
the bulk of Ukraine's forces,

which are currently deployed in
the southeast along the line of
control opposite the Donbass,

that is, the occupied
separatist territory.

So you're likely going to see a fairly
sizable Russia incursion, potentially,

across the Eastern regions of
Ukraine, looking to envelop or cut off

a large number of the Ukrainian
military that is based there.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Now, senior
U.S. officials who I talk to
are as concerned as they are,

given the things that you're
describing, and the capacities
of Russia that are on the border,

but they do say that Vladimir Putin
has not made a final decision yet.

And, certainly, the U.S., the
West, in what they say is a
united way are trying to come up

with a Russian off-ramp. But
those things that the West

are offering Russia are far from
what Russia's core demands are.

So do you see any possible
diplomatic off-ramp in this moment?

MICHAEL KOFMAN: I have sadly
been pessimistic all along
looking some months out at this.

And I have seen the likelihood
for diplomacy to succeed is not
very good, fairly slim. Now, of

course, I agree. We don't know
if Vladimir Putin has made a
decision. That's very true. Is there

a chance for diplomacy to succeed?
Well, I think the window for it
is unfortunately closing, right?

It's not necessarily the Russia
has to conduct a military operation
now that they have deployed,

but they do appear to be
increasingly in a sort of go-or-no-go
posture, so they're likely

to make a decision in the
coming weeks, not months. And by
weeks, I mean only a few weeks.

So far, in terms of what we
have seen on public diplomacy, I
have not witnessed anything that

gives me optimism. Now, it is a
fair chance that, behind the scenes,
there's some kind of backdoor

diplomacy taking place that
none of us know about. And maybe
there's some movement there.

Russia can always back down.
Vladimir Putin can sort of take
what he's been given on the table,

declare victory, and pull back
from the border. However, I find
this a fairly unlikely scenario.

And I'm worried that I might be right
about my pessimism going into this.

If you recall our conversation
months ago, a lot of the indicators
I suggested that would tell us

that they are serious about
military operation and this --
a renewed invasion of Ukraine,

they have all shown up, literally
almost every single one of them.

So, we are now looking at a very
different Russian force posture.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Michael Kofman, I'm
going to have to leave it there.

Michael Kofman, Center for Naval
Analyses, thank you very much.

MICHAEL KOFMAN: Thanks. My pleasure.