1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,000 JUDY WOODRUFF: Russian military drills that began today in Belarus involve 30,000 troops 2 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:10,840 and are expected to take place over 10 days. Naval drills are also being conducted in the Black Sea. 3 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:16,560 The exercises come as more than 100,000 Russian troops 4 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:21,560 surround Ukraine and as crisis diplomacy continues in Moscow, Berlin and Brussels. 5 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:24,640 Nick Schifrin starts our coverage 6 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:29,640 with a look at today's movements in Belarus on the Belarus-Ukraine border. 7 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:34,840 NICK SCHIFRIN: With tanks, artillery, missiles capable of reaching all of Ukraine, and its 8 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:47,640 most advanced jet, Russia's Belarus military exercises are the largest since the Cold War. 9 00:00:48,160 --> 00:00:52,720 It's a display of military might near the border with Ukraine and just a few hundred miles from 10 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,720 the capital, Kiev. And past the sailboats off annexed Crimea, Russian ships hold naval drills. 11 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,800 Ukraine's Foreign Ministry today said those ships make Black Sea navigation 12 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,840 virtually impossible and are part of Russia's hybrid war. 13 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:13,120 Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defense Ministry prepared in case of a shooting war. Just north of Crimea, 14 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:18,120 soldiers practice securing an enemy-occupied building. Ukraine uses drones from NATO member 15 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:23,640 Turkey that have successfully targeted Russian tanks in previous conflicts 16 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,720 and, to a rock soundtrack, show off American Javelin anti-tank missiles 17 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,080 that senior U.S. officials say are now deployed to key transit points. 18 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:39,720 But, at the same time, diplomacy continues. In Berlin, mid-level officials from Germany, 19 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:42,800 France, Ukraine and Russia met in a format that's focused on the 20 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,400 front lines of the 8-year-old conflict in Eastern Ukraine. 21 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:51,280 In Moscow, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss visited Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, 22 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,840 and, at first, the diplomacy was relatively diplomatic. 23 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,840 SERGEY LAVROV, Russian Foreign Minister (through translator): 24 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:01,840 Relations can be normalized only through mutually respectful dialogue, 25 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:06,800 an equal dialogue, and dialogue based on recognition of each other's legitimate interests, 26 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,040 a search for mutually acceptable solutions. 27 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:10,640 LIZ TRUSS, British Foreign Minister: The reality is, 28 00:02:10,640 --> 00:02:15,640 we cannot ignore the buildup of over 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border 29 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,880 and the attempts to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. 30 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,360 NICK SCHIFRIN: But after their meeting, in a press conference: 31 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:28,360 SERGEY LAVROV (through translator): I'm honestly disappointed that what we have is a conversation 32 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:34,200 between a dumb and a deaf person. They say Russia is waiting until the ground freezes like a stone, 33 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,800 so its tanks can easily cross into Ukrainian territory. I think the ground was like that 34 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:43,200 today with our British colleagues, from which numerous facts that we produced bounced off. 35 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:48,200 NICK SCHIFRIN: After that, Lavrov exited stage left, leaving Truss standing alone. 36 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,280 There was friendlier choreography in Brussels between British Prime 37 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,200 Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. 38 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,440 Johnson said Putin's endgame was still unknown, but British intelligence was grim. 39 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,400 BORIS JOHNSON, British Prime Minister: This is probably the most dangerous moment, 40 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,880 I would say, in the course of the next few days, in what is 41 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:11,880 the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades. 42 00:03:11,920 --> 00:03:13,680 NICK SCHIFRIN: In response to that crisis, 43 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:18,680 British troops today arrived in Poland and U.S. equipment redeployed to NATO member Romania. 44 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:23,200 Senior officials tell "PBS NewsHour" they're worried about any Ukraine conflict spreading 45 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:27,360 into NATO, as State Department counselor Derek Chollet suggested in Bucharest. 46 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:32,360 DEREK CHOLLET, State Department Counselor: Clearly, Romania is facing acute threats 47 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:37,200 from the situation unfolding not too far away from here with the Russian escalation. 48 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,400 NICK SCHIFRIN: And to discuss that escalation of 49 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,160 Russian troops massing on the Ukraine border, I'm joined by Michael Kofman, 50 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:49,160 a senior fellow for Russian studies at the CNA, Center for Naval Analyses. 51 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,000 Michael Kofman, welcome back to the "NewsHour." 52 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,000 We have got a map that shows how Ukraine is really surrounded 53 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:01,800 from the north in Belarus, from the northeast, from the southeast, and from the south in Crimea. 54 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,280 What's your assessment of the Russian buildup right now? 55 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,080 MICHAEL KOFMAN, Center for Naval Analyses: The Russian buildup is 56 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:09,840 entering a fairly advanced stage. 57 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:14,640 You have seen troops arrive and actually grab prepositioned equipment. 58 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:19,640 There is a sizable Russian deployment in Belarus just north of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. 59 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,840 There are a lot of Russian troops both northeast and east of Ukraine. 60 00:04:23,840 --> 00:04:26,880 And there's a fairly sizable Russian deployment in Crimea. 61 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:30,080 Plus, there are additional ships along the way, amphibious assault ships that 62 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:34,800 are bringing even more troops to reinforce the Russian forces in Crimea. So what you're 63 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:39,800 beginning to see are kind of what look like the final stages of a very sizable military buildup, 64 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:45,480 a military that is positioning itself to be able to conduct a large-scale military operation. 65 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:50,920 NICK SCHIFRIN: And last time we spoke, about a month ago on this show, you pointed out how 66 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:56,360 a lot of the hardware was in place, but the personnel wasn't quite in place yet. 67 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,560 Are that -- is that personnel now in place? 68 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,360 MICHAEL KOFMAN: Yes, that picture very much has changed. 69 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:07,280 So we have seen personnel arrive, grab their equipment, 70 00:05:07,280 --> 00:05:11,040 move much closer to the Ukrainian border towards final staging grounds, 71 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:16,040 begin to conduct exercises that bring the personnel up to higher readiness levels. 72 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:20,640 You have seen a lot of tents deployed in field camps with troops in them, right? 73 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,240 A lot of logistics have shown up, the kind of things that you would see 74 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:28,240 a military bring that's not necessarily preparing for an exercise, 75 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,600 but more than likely is positioning itself for an operation, 76 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:36,320 everything from medical, fuel, ammunition, communications, these kinds of elements. 77 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:41,320 You have seen aviation shift over, aircraft, helicopters. And you have seen troops come 78 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:47,000 very close to the borders. That equipment that in the past we saw based maybe 200, 300 kilometers 79 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,720 away from Ukraine, kind of staging there, they have grabbed that gear and they have 80 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:56,560 gone down to maybe within 30 kilometers of the Ukrainian border at this point. 81 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:01,560 NICK SCHIFRIN: One other element of the presence that senior officials I talk to 82 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,760 are very worried about is electronic warfare, 83 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:10,760 Russia's ability to cut off Ukrainian cell phones, Internet, satellites. 84 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,120 How large, how real is that threat? 85 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:14,800 MICHAEL KOFMAN: It's very real. 86 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:19,800 You have seen the Russian military bring all sorts of different types of electronic warfare systems, 87 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:25,680 some fairly high-level. They're accompanying the various units that have deployed there. 88 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,520 And Russians are quite advanced in electronic fire operations, 89 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,080 as they call them, information operations. 90 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,720 And so you could see a combination of both cyberwarfare, 91 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,360 which is likely to have some effects, but, more importantly, electronic warfare, both kind at the 92 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,520 tactical level, but also fairly high-end systems that might have some strategic effects as well. 93 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:45,040 NICK SCHIFRIN: 94 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:50,040 We were focused on the exercises today in Belarus. We saw that at the top of the story. 95 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:55,360 And I want to go back to another map to show why people are so concerned 96 00:06:55,360 --> 00:07:00,080 about those troops in Belarus, the fear of troops in Belarus coming down 97 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:05,880 toward Kyiv in a pincer move, surrounding Kyiv, U.S. officials I talk to very worried about that. 98 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,240 What does that say about Russia's intentions? 99 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:11,520 MICHAEL KOFMAN: Sure. 100 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:18,000 Those scary red arrows that you have on the map are actually a fairly realistic depiction of at 101 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:22,480 least one of the likely Russian courses of action. That is that they intend to encircle the Ukrainian 102 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:27,480 capital and impose regime change, perhaps install a pro-Russian regime or change the constitution. 103 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:34,440 You're also likely to see a fairly large incursion by Russian troops both south from Crimea, 104 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:41,080 the Crimean Peninsula, and also in the east, perhaps enveloping the bulk of Ukraine's forces, 105 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:47,880 which are currently deployed in the southeast along the line of control opposite the Donbass, 106 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,800 that is, the occupied separatist territory. 107 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,480 So you're likely going to see a fairly sizable Russia incursion, potentially, 108 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,080 across the Eastern regions of Ukraine, looking to envelop or cut off 109 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,640 a large number of the Ukrainian military that is based there. 110 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:06,640 NICK SCHIFRIN: Now, senior U.S. officials who I talk to are as concerned as they are, 111 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:13,080 given the things that you're describing, and the capacities of Russia that are on the border, 112 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:18,360 but they do say that Vladimir Putin has not made a final decision yet. 113 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:23,640 And, certainly, the U.S., the West, in what they say is a united way are trying to come up 114 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,800 with a Russian off-ramp. But those things that the West 115 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:33,600 are offering Russia are far from what Russia's core demands are. 116 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,360 So do you see any possible diplomatic off-ramp in this moment? 117 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:42,360 MICHAEL KOFMAN: I have sadly been pessimistic all along looking some months out at this. 118 00:08:42,560 --> 00:08:47,560 And I have seen the likelihood for diplomacy to succeed is not very good, fairly slim. Now, of 119 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:53,160 course, I agree. We don't know if Vladimir Putin has made a decision. That's very true. Is there 120 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:59,160 a chance for diplomacy to succeed? Well, I think the window for it is unfortunately closing, right? 121 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:04,160 It's not necessarily the Russia has to conduct a military operation now that they have deployed, 122 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:09,040 but they do appear to be increasingly in a sort of go-or-no-go posture, so they're likely 123 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:14,040 to make a decision in the coming weeks, not months. And by weeks, I mean only a few weeks. 124 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:19,480 So far, in terms of what we have seen on public diplomacy, I have not witnessed anything that 125 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:24,240 gives me optimism. Now, it is a fair chance that, behind the scenes, there's some kind of backdoor 126 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:28,720 diplomacy taking place that none of us know about. And maybe there's some movement there. 127 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:33,520 Russia can always back down. Vladimir Putin can sort of take what he's been given on the table, 128 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:38,520 declare victory, and pull back from the border. However, I find this a fairly unlikely scenario. 129 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:42,160 And I'm worried that I might be right about my pessimism going into this. 130 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,040 If you recall our conversation months ago, a lot of the indicators I suggested that would tell us 131 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:52,040 that they are serious about military operation and this -- a renewed invasion of Ukraine, 132 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,760 they have all shown up, literally almost every single one of them. 133 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,640 So, we are now looking at a very different Russian force posture. 134 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,040 NICK SCHIFRIN: Michael Kofman, I'm going to have to leave it there. 135 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,840 Michael Kofman, Center for Naval Analyses, thank you very much. 136 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:08,840 MICHAEL KOFMAN: Thanks. My pleasure.