UDY WOODRUFF: And, with that,
Amna Nawaz is back our Politics
Monday analysts on this

Election Day eve.

AMNA NAWAZ: That's right, Judy.

And that team, of course,
Amy Walter of The Cook
Political Report and
host of public radio's

"Politics With Amy Walter,"
and Tamara Keith of NPR. She
also co-hosts the "NPR Politics

Podcast."

Welcome back to you both.
And good to see you.

Amy, you have just heard there
from those nonvoters, people
who are sharing the reasons

they're choosing not to vote
this year. It seems like this
surge in early voting we're

seeing indicates there will be
fewer of those people this year.

But, when it comes to
groups you're watching,
groups to track, groups
that could be critical

for either Vice President
Biden or President Trump, who
are you keeping an eye on?

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political
Report: Well, Amna, we have
been talking a lot in this most

recent time about
the suburbs, right?

Ever since Trump's win in
2016, there's been tremendous
movement among suburban voters,

who are traditionally
Republican, into the
Democratic camp. We
saw that in 2018, and

we're seeing continuing
deterioration for Republicans
in and around suburbs all across

the country, Texas being
a prime example of this.

But I'm also looking at
how some of the voters
that were traditionally
in Trump's coalition,

older voters, men, especially
white men, and white non-college
voters, voters who have

a lower level of education
and are white, all of those
voters, at least in the polling

up until now, we have seen some
deterioration for the president.

Can he get those voters back?
So, those are the kinds of folks
that I'm going to be paying

a whole lot of attention to.
And, as we know, Amna, each
of these groups become -- look

different in different states.
Some states have a higher
percentage of voters that are

white.

Some have -- some states,
you're going to have a much
more robust population that is

non-white, so voters of
color playing a bigger role.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, Tam,
what about some of those
groups Amy just mentioned?

You have been out with President
Trump recently. He continues
to hold big rallies in some of

those key states. What is
his messages to some of those
groups in this final stretch?

Is there a coherent messages?

TAMARA KEITH, National Public
Radio: He makes a very explicit
appeal to suburban women,

for instance, and to older
voters. It's a little obvious
and ham-handed. And it's just

like, hey, demographic
group that I'm having
trouble with, listen to me.

But, more broadly, in terms
of what his pitch is, it boils
down to, he is still running

as an outsider, even though
he's president of the United
States. And he's saying that

Joe Biden is an insider and
an establishment figure, and
that that is the choice people

need to make.

The other thing he's running
on is embodied in these big
rallies, like the ones that I

covered over the weekend, these
big, in person gatherings where
a lot of people aren't wearing

masks and everyone is
really close together.
And the president's
message is, get out, live

your lives, don't worry about
the coronavirus. It's just
-- we're turning the corner.

And he's saying that Joe Biden's
going to keep you locked up
and cancel Christmas. And

that is the pitch
that he's making.

The question that we have
continued to have throughout
this election season is, as the

coronavirus case numbers
rise, as hospitalizations
rise, as deaths rise,
and there are new records

for hospitalizations and cases,
is that messages that, hey,
hey, everything is fine and it

will all go away November 4,
does that resonate with people,
or are they living in fear of

the coronavirus that would
make that not resonate?

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, there's another
thing I want to follow up
with you on, briefly, though.

There's another part of the
president's messages about there
has to be some kind of result

by the end of the
night tomorrow. What
do you make of that?

TAMARA KEITH: You know, he
has been laying the groundwork
for this for months, right?

He was trashing the
whole idea of absentee
voting or vote-by-mail,
and even though they're

kind of basically the same
thing. And guess what? His
supporters listened. And so more

Trump voters are expected to
vote on Election Day itself.
It's a really big gamble.

They're betting that their
ground game is going to be able
to turn out voters and that

they are just going to have
this, as President Trump called
it, a great red wave that comes

through on Election Day.

And it's a weird messages
to have from a campaign
of someone who expects
to win, to be arguing

that the system is rigged,
especially when you are the
president of the United States.

It's not a common thing
for a president of the
United States to argue.

AMNA NAWAZ: And, as we have
noted and will continue to
note, there have been a number

of races over the years,
historically where we have not
known the winner on the night

of Election Day.

But, Amy, that's been true of
other races, too, not just at
the presidential level, but

also down-ballot races.

When it comes to, though,
Senate races in particular,
what are you tracking? What are

you keeping your on?

AMY WALTER: Well, the battle
for control of the Senate is
the whole ball game when it

domes to down-ballot races
-- well, at least for me, the
ones that I'm paying attention

to, and I think for so
many folks paying attention
to, where that body
goes, because the House

is almost certain to
stay in Democratic hands.

And we know that some of the
states that close the earliest,
those on the East Coast, like

North Carolina, also happen
to have a really competitive
Senate race. The North Carolina

Senate race is between
first-term incumbent
Thom Tillis and the
Democrat, Cal Cunningham.

Now, Tillis, the Republican,
has been running slightly behind
Cunningham for the entirety

of the campaign. And it's also
a state, of course, that Joe
Biden and Donald Trump are

fighting hard to win.

So, if we have the results of
that Senate race relatively
early in the evening, in other

words, if that Senate race
can be called, it could tell
us something about control of

the Senate. If Democrats win
there, that's a good sign for
them that they are going to

be able to pick up enough
seats to flip control.

If they lose that, if the
Republican holds on, it doesn't
mean that control of the Senate

is known or that Republicans
will keep it, but it is sure
a better sign for them going

into the rest of the evening.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, in less than
a minute, is there a particular
thing you are going to

be watching for, a
state, a group of voters?
What are you tracking?

TAMARA KEITH: So, I'm
looking at Arizona and
Georgia and Florida and
North Carolina, these

states where we, in theory, will
get results relatively early.

And if Joe Biden is doing well
in those states or has won
those states, then the focus on

the Upper Midwest and
Pennsylvania won't be
that significant anymore,
because those states

will show a real
change in the tide.

AMNA NAWAZ: And we're going
to be tracking all of those
results as they come in.

That is our Politics Monday
team joining us tonight
on this election eve.

And just a reminder to everyone
out there, the "NewsHour"
will not call any of those

races until they are fully
called by the Associated
Press. We will have
those in special coverage

tomorrow evening.

Thank you to you both --
and, Judy, back to you.