WEBVTT 00:01.933 --> 00:04.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% UDY WOODRUFF: And, with that, Amna Nawaz is back our Politics Monday analysts on this 00:04.933 --> 00:05.933 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Election Day eve. 00:05.933 --> 00:08.433 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: That's right, Judy. 00:08.433 --> 00:12.966 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% And that team, of course, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report and host of public radio's 00:12.966 --> 00:17.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% "Politics With Amy Walter," and Tamara Keith of NPR. She also co-hosts the "NPR Politics 00:18.733 --> 00:20.166 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Podcast." 00:20.166 --> 00:22.233 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Welcome back to you both. And good to see you. 00:22.233 --> 00:26.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Amy, you have just heard there from those nonvoters, people who are sharing the reasons 00:26.533 --> 00:30.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they're choosing not to vote this year. It seems like this surge in early voting we're 00:30.500 --> 00:33.566 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% seeing indicates there will be fewer of those people this year. 00:33.566 --> 00:37.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% But, when it comes to groups you're watching, groups to track, groups that could be critical 00:37.866 --> 00:42.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% for either Vice President Biden or President Trump, who are you keeping an eye on? 00:42.466 --> 00:47.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Well, Amna, we have been talking a lot in this most 00:48.966 --> 00:51.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% recent time about the suburbs, right? 00:51.500 --> 00:56.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Ever since Trump's win in 2016, there's been tremendous movement among suburban voters, 00:58.566 --> 01:02.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% who are traditionally Republican, into the Democratic camp. We saw that in 2018, and 01:04.733 --> 01:08.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% we're seeing continuing deterioration for Republicans in and around suburbs all across 01:09.533 --> 01:12.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% the country, Texas being a prime example of this. 01:12.933 --> 01:17.933 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% But I'm also looking at how some of the voters that were traditionally in Trump's coalition, 01:19.833 --> 01:22.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% older voters, men, especially white men, and white non-college voters, voters who have 01:24.866 --> 01:28.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a lower level of education and are white, all of those voters, at least in the polling 01:29.966 --> 01:33.233 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% up until now, we have seen some deterioration for the president. 01:33.233 --> 01:37.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Can he get those voters back? So, those are the kinds of folks that I'm going to be paying 01:37.866 --> 01:42.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a whole lot of attention to. And, as we know, Amna, each of these groups become -- look 01:42.600 --> 01:47.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% different in different states. Some states have a higher percentage of voters that are 01:48.066 --> 01:50.133 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% white. 01:50.133 --> 01:53.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Some have -- some states, you're going to have a much more robust population that is 01:55.466 --> 01:58.466 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% non-white, so voters of color playing a bigger role. 01:58.466 --> 02:02.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: So, Tam, what about some of those groups Amy just mentioned? 02:02.200 --> 02:05.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% You have been out with President Trump recently. He continues to hold big rallies in some of 02:05.666 --> 02:10.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% those key states. What is his messages to some of those groups in this final stretch? 02:11.533 --> 02:13.533 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% Is there a coherent messages? 02:13.533 --> 02:16.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: He makes a very explicit appeal to suburban women, 02:16.933 --> 02:21.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% for instance, and to older voters. It's a little obvious and ham-handed. And it's just 02:25.600 --> 02:29.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% like, hey, demographic group that I'm having trouble with, listen to me. 02:29.933 --> 02:34.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But, more broadly, in terms of what his pitch is, it boils down to, he is still running 02:37.000 --> 02:40.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% as an outsider, even though he's president of the United States. And he's saying that 02:40.833 --> 02:45.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Joe Biden is an insider and an establishment figure, and that that is the choice people 02:46.900 --> 02:49.000 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% need to make. 02:49.000 --> 02:52.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The other thing he's running on is embodied in these big rallies, like the ones that I 02:54.933 --> 02:57.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% covered over the weekend, these big, in person gatherings where a lot of people aren't wearing 02:57.466 --> 03:02.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% masks and everyone is really close together. And the president's message is, get out, live 03:02.100 --> 03:07.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% your lives, don't worry about the coronavirus. It's just -- we're turning the corner. 03:09.000 --> 03:12.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And he's saying that Joe Biden's going to keep you locked up and cancel Christmas. And 03:14.000 --> 03:15.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that is the pitch that he's making. 03:15.966 --> 03:19.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The question that we have continued to have throughout this election season is, as the 03:22.533 --> 03:25.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% coronavirus case numbers rise, as hospitalizations rise, as deaths rise, and there are new records 03:27.066 --> 03:31.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% for hospitalizations and cases, is that messages that, hey, hey, everything is fine and it 03:31.300 --> 03:36.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% will all go away November 4, does that resonate with people, or are they living in fear of 03:37.733 --> 03:39.866 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the coronavirus that would make that not resonate? 03:39.866 --> 03:43.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, there's another thing I want to follow up with you on, briefly, though. 03:43.600 --> 03:47.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% There's another part of the president's messages about there has to be some kind of result 03:47.800 --> 03:50.566 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% by the end of the night tomorrow. What do you make of that? 03:50.566 --> 03:55.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% TAMARA KEITH: You know, he has been laying the groundwork for this for months, right? 03:57.633 --> 04:01.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% He was trashing the whole idea of absentee voting or vote-by-mail, and even though they're 04:03.366 --> 04:08.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% kind of basically the same thing. And guess what? His supporters listened. And so more 04:10.066 --> 04:13.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Trump voters are expected to vote on Election Day itself. It's a really big gamble. 04:15.733 --> 04:20.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% They're betting that their ground game is going to be able to turn out voters and that 04:22.133 --> 04:25.166 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they are just going to have this, as President Trump called it, a great red wave that comes 04:27.633 --> 04:30.566 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% through on Election Day. 04:30.566 --> 04:35.566 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% And it's a weird messages to have from a campaign of someone who expects to win, to be arguing 04:38.400 --> 04:42.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that the system is rigged, especially when you are the president of the United States. 04:42.933 --> 04:45.666 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% It's not a common thing for a president of the United States to argue. 04:45.666 --> 04:49.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: And, as we have noted and will continue to note, there have been a number 04:49.233 --> 04:53.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of races over the years, historically where we have not known the winner on the night 04:53.133 --> 04:55.233 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% of Election Day. 04:55.233 --> 04:58.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But, Amy, that's been true of other races, too, not just at the presidential level, but 04:58.666 --> 05:00.700 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% also down-ballot races. 05:00.700 --> 05:03.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% When it comes to, though, Senate races in particular, what are you tracking? What are 05:03.900 --> 05:06.033 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% you keeping your on? 05:06.033 --> 05:09.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMY WALTER: Well, the battle for control of the Senate is the whole ball game when it 05:09.400 --> 05:13.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% domes to down-ballot races -- well, at least for me, the ones that I'm paying attention 05:13.933 --> 05:18.933 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% to, and I think for so many folks paying attention to, where that body goes, because the House 05:20.300 --> 05:23.300 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% is almost certain to stay in Democratic hands. 05:23.300 --> 05:27.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And we know that some of the states that close the earliest, those on the East Coast, like 05:27.733 --> 05:32.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% North Carolina, also happen to have a really competitive Senate race. The North Carolina 05:35.133 --> 05:38.600 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% Senate race is between first-term incumbent Thom Tillis and the Democrat, Cal Cunningham. 05:40.533 --> 05:42.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Now, Tillis, the Republican, has been running slightly behind Cunningham for the entirety 05:42.933 --> 05:47.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of the campaign. And it's also a state, of course, that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are 05:48.666 --> 05:50.766 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% fighting hard to win. 05:50.766 --> 05:54.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, if we have the results of that Senate race relatively early in the evening, in other 05:56.833 --> 06:00.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% words, if that Senate race can be called, it could tell us something about control of 06:02.600 --> 06:04.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the Senate. If Democrats win there, that's a good sign for them that they are going to 06:04.766 --> 06:07.733 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% be able to pick up enough seats to flip control. 06:07.733 --> 06:11.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% If they lose that, if the Republican holds on, it doesn't mean that control of the Senate 06:11.833 --> 06:16.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% is known or that Republicans will keep it, but it is sure a better sign for them going 06:18.133 --> 06:20.066 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% into the rest of the evening. 06:20.066 --> 06:23.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, in less than a minute, is there a particular thing you are going to 06:23.900 --> 06:27.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% be watching for, a state, a group of voters? What are you tracking? 06:27.100 --> 06:32.100 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% TAMARA KEITH: So, I'm looking at Arizona and Georgia and Florida and North Carolina, these 06:34.000 --> 06:39.000 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% states where we, in theory, will get results relatively early. 06:40.933 --> 06:44.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And if Joe Biden is doing well in those states or has won those states, then the focus on 06:46.633 --> 06:50.433 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% the Upper Midwest and Pennsylvania won't be that significant anymore, because those states 06:51.566 --> 06:54.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% will show a real change in the tide. 06:54.100 --> 06:58.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: And we're going to be tracking all of those results as they come in. 06:58.900 --> 07:03.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% That is our Politics Monday team joining us tonight on this election eve. 07:03.066 --> 07:06.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And just a reminder to everyone out there, the "NewsHour" will not call any of those 07:06.333 --> 07:11.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% races until they are fully called by the Associated Press. We will have those in special coverage 07:12.066 --> 07:13.333 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% tomorrow evening. 07:13.333 --> 07:13.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Thank you to you both -- and, Judy, back to you.