1 00:00:01,933 --> 00:00:04,933 UDY WOODRUFF: And, with that, Amna Nawaz is back our Politics Monday analysts on this 2 00:00:04,933 --> 00:00:05,933 Election Day eve. 3 00:00:05,933 --> 00:00:08,433 AMNA NAWAZ: That's right, Judy. 4 00:00:08,433 --> 00:00:12,966 And that team, of course, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report and host of public radio's 5 00:00:12,966 --> 00:00:17,966 "Politics With Amy Walter," and Tamara Keith of NPR. She also co-hosts the "NPR Politics 6 00:00:18,733 --> 00:00:20,166 Podcast." 7 00:00:20,166 --> 00:00:22,233 Welcome back to you both. And good to see you. 8 00:00:22,233 --> 00:00:26,533 Amy, you have just heard there from those nonvoters, people who are sharing the reasons 9 00:00:26,533 --> 00:00:30,500 they're choosing not to vote this year. It seems like this surge in early voting we're 10 00:00:30,500 --> 00:00:33,566 seeing indicates there will be fewer of those people this year. 11 00:00:33,566 --> 00:00:37,866 But, when it comes to groups you're watching, groups to track, groups that could be critical 12 00:00:37,866 --> 00:00:42,466 for either Vice President Biden or President Trump, who are you keeping an eye on? 13 00:00:42,466 --> 00:00:47,433 AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Well, Amna, we have been talking a lot in this most 14 00:00:48,966 --> 00:00:51,500 recent time about the suburbs, right? 15 00:00:51,500 --> 00:00:56,466 Ever since Trump's win in 2016, there's been tremendous movement among suburban voters, 16 00:00:58,566 --> 00:01:02,833 who are traditionally Republican, into the Democratic camp. We saw that in 2018, and 17 00:01:04,733 --> 00:01:08,133 we're seeing continuing deterioration for Republicans in and around suburbs all across 18 00:01:09,533 --> 00:01:12,933 the country, Texas being a prime example of this. 19 00:01:12,933 --> 00:01:17,933 But I'm also looking at how some of the voters that were traditionally in Trump's coalition, 20 00:01:19,833 --> 00:01:22,966 older voters, men, especially white men, and white non-college voters, voters who have 21 00:01:24,866 --> 00:01:28,500 a lower level of education and are white, all of those voters, at least in the polling 22 00:01:29,966 --> 00:01:33,233 up until now, we have seen some deterioration for the president. 23 00:01:33,233 --> 00:01:37,866 Can he get those voters back? So, those are the kinds of folks that I'm going to be paying 24 00:01:37,866 --> 00:01:42,600 a whole lot of attention to. And, as we know, Amna, each of these groups become -- look 25 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:47,566 different in different states. Some states have a higher percentage of voters that are 26 00:01:48,066 --> 00:01:50,133 white. 27 00:01:50,133 --> 00:01:53,566 Some have -- some states, you're going to have a much more robust population that is 28 00:01:55,466 --> 00:01:58,466 non-white, so voters of color playing a bigger role. 29 00:01:58,466 --> 00:02:02,200 AMNA NAWAZ: So, Tam, what about some of those groups Amy just mentioned? 30 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,666 You have been out with President Trump recently. He continues to hold big rallies in some of 31 00:02:05,666 --> 00:02:10,666 those key states. What is his messages to some of those groups in this final stretch? 32 00:02:11,533 --> 00:02:13,533 Is there a coherent messages? 33 00:02:13,533 --> 00:02:16,933 TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: He makes a very explicit appeal to suburban women, 34 00:02:16,933 --> 00:02:21,933 for instance, and to older voters. It's a little obvious and ham-handed. And it's just 35 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,933 like, hey, demographic group that I'm having trouble with, listen to me. 36 00:02:29,933 --> 00:02:34,933 But, more broadly, in terms of what his pitch is, it boils down to, he is still running 37 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,833 as an outsider, even though he's president of the United States. And he's saying that 38 00:02:40,833 --> 00:02:45,833 Joe Biden is an insider and an establishment figure, and that that is the choice people 39 00:02:46,900 --> 00:02:49,000 need to make. 40 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,866 The other thing he's running on is embodied in these big rallies, like the ones that I 41 00:02:54,933 --> 00:02:57,466 covered over the weekend, these big, in person gatherings where a lot of people aren't wearing 42 00:02:57,466 --> 00:03:02,100 masks and everyone is really close together. And the president's message is, get out, live 43 00:03:02,100 --> 00:03:07,100 your lives, don't worry about the coronavirus. It's just -- we're turning the corner. 44 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,800 And he's saying that Joe Biden's going to keep you locked up and cancel Christmas. And 45 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:15,966 that is the pitch that he's making. 46 00:03:15,966 --> 00:03:19,966 The question that we have continued to have throughout this election season is, as the 47 00:03:22,533 --> 00:03:25,100 coronavirus case numbers rise, as hospitalizations rise, as deaths rise, and there are new records 48 00:03:27,066 --> 00:03:31,300 for hospitalizations and cases, is that messages that, hey, hey, everything is fine and it 49 00:03:31,300 --> 00:03:36,300 will all go away November 4, does that resonate with people, or are they living in fear of 50 00:03:37,733 --> 00:03:39,866 the coronavirus that would make that not resonate? 51 00:03:39,866 --> 00:03:43,600 AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, there's another thing I want to follow up with you on, briefly, though. 52 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,800 There's another part of the president's messages about there has to be some kind of result 53 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,566 by the end of the night tomorrow. What do you make of that? 54 00:03:50,566 --> 00:03:55,566 TAMARA KEITH: You know, he has been laying the groundwork for this for months, right? 55 00:03:57,633 --> 00:04:01,500 He was trashing the whole idea of absentee voting or vote-by-mail, and even though they're 56 00:04:03,366 --> 00:04:08,033 kind of basically the same thing. And guess what? His supporters listened. And so more 57 00:04:10,066 --> 00:04:13,833 Trump voters are expected to vote on Election Day itself. It's a really big gamble. 58 00:04:15,733 --> 00:04:20,133 They're betting that their ground game is going to be able to turn out voters and that 59 00:04:22,133 --> 00:04:25,166 they are just going to have this, as President Trump called it, a great red wave that comes 60 00:04:27,633 --> 00:04:30,566 through on Election Day. 61 00:04:30,566 --> 00:04:35,566 And it's a weird messages to have from a campaign of someone who expects to win, to be arguing 62 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:42,933 that the system is rigged, especially when you are the president of the United States. 63 00:04:42,933 --> 00:04:45,666 It's not a common thing for a president of the United States to argue. 64 00:04:45,666 --> 00:04:49,233 AMNA NAWAZ: And, as we have noted and will continue to note, there have been a number 65 00:04:49,233 --> 00:04:53,133 of races over the years, historically where we have not known the winner on the night 66 00:04:53,133 --> 00:04:55,233 of Election Day. 67 00:04:55,233 --> 00:04:58,666 But, Amy, that's been true of other races, too, not just at the presidential level, but 68 00:04:58,666 --> 00:05:00,700 also down-ballot races. 69 00:05:00,700 --> 00:05:03,900 When it comes to, though, Senate races in particular, what are you tracking? What are 70 00:05:03,900 --> 00:05:06,033 you keeping your on? 71 00:05:06,033 --> 00:05:09,400 AMY WALTER: Well, the battle for control of the Senate is the whole ball game when it 72 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:13,933 domes to down-ballot races -- well, at least for me, the ones that I'm paying attention 73 00:05:13,933 --> 00:05:18,933 to, and I think for so many folks paying attention to, where that body goes, because the House 74 00:05:20,300 --> 00:05:23,300 is almost certain to stay in Democratic hands. 75 00:05:23,300 --> 00:05:27,733 And we know that some of the states that close the earliest, those on the East Coast, like 76 00:05:27,733 --> 00:05:32,733 North Carolina, also happen to have a really competitive Senate race. The North Carolina 77 00:05:35,133 --> 00:05:38,600 Senate race is between first-term incumbent Thom Tillis and the Democrat, Cal Cunningham. 78 00:05:40,533 --> 00:05:42,933 Now, Tillis, the Republican, has been running slightly behind Cunningham for the entirety 79 00:05:42,933 --> 00:05:47,933 of the campaign. And it's also a state, of course, that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are 80 00:05:48,666 --> 00:05:50,766 fighting hard to win. 81 00:05:50,766 --> 00:05:54,866 So, if we have the results of that Senate race relatively early in the evening, in other 82 00:05:56,833 --> 00:06:00,600 words, if that Senate race can be called, it could tell us something about control of 83 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,766 the Senate. If Democrats win there, that's a good sign for them that they are going to 84 00:06:04,766 --> 00:06:07,733 be able to pick up enough seats to flip control. 85 00:06:07,733 --> 00:06:11,833 If they lose that, if the Republican holds on, it doesn't mean that control of the Senate 86 00:06:11,833 --> 00:06:16,833 is known or that Republicans will keep it, but it is sure a better sign for them going 87 00:06:18,133 --> 00:06:20,066 into the rest of the evening. 88 00:06:20,066 --> 00:06:23,900 AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, in less than a minute, is there a particular thing you are going to 89 00:06:23,900 --> 00:06:27,100 be watching for, a state, a group of voters? What are you tracking? 90 00:06:27,100 --> 00:06:32,100 TAMARA KEITH: So, I'm looking at Arizona and Georgia and Florida and North Carolina, these 91 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:39,000 states where we, in theory, will get results relatively early. 92 00:06:40,933 --> 00:06:44,200 And if Joe Biden is doing well in those states or has won those states, then the focus on 93 00:06:46,633 --> 00:06:50,433 the Upper Midwest and Pennsylvania won't be that significant anymore, because those states 94 00:06:51,566 --> 00:06:54,100 will show a real change in the tide. 95 00:06:54,100 --> 00:06:58,900 AMNA NAWAZ: And we're going to be tracking all of those results as they come in. 96 00:06:58,900 --> 00:07:03,066 That is our Politics Monday team joining us tonight on this election eve. 97 00:07:03,066 --> 00:07:06,333 And just a reminder to everyone out there, the "NewsHour" will not call any of those 98 00:07:06,333 --> 00:07:11,333 races until they are fully called by the Associated Press. We will have those in special coverage 99 00:07:12,066 --> 00:07:13,333 tomorrow evening. 100 00:07:13,333 --> 00:07:13,933 Thank you to you both -- and, Judy, back to you.