JUDY WOODRUFF: We return now
to our other top story: the
president's decision to withdraw

American forces from Syria.

As John Yang reports, it came
as an unwelcome surprise to
U.S. allies and to many in both

political parties
on Capitol Hill.

JOHN YANG: Throughout the year,
President Trump has promised
a change in Syria strategy.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the
United States: And, by the way,
we're knocking the hell out

of ISIS.

We will be coming out of
Syria, like, very soon.

JOHN YANG: Today, it
appeared soon could be here.

First, a tweet: "We have
defeated ISIS in Syria, my
only reason for being there."

Then a White House statement:
"We have started returning
troops home as we transition to

the next phase of
this campaign."

But the shift appears at odds
with many of his top aides.

In October, National Security
Adviser John Bolton said the
2,000 U.S. troops in Syria

will stay, as long as Iran
and its allies are there
supporting Bashar al-Assad, the

Syrian president.

Last month, Jim Jeffrey,
the U.S. special
representative for Syria:

JAMES JEFFREY, U.S. Special
Representative for Syria
Engagement: Their mission right

now from the president
is the enduring defeat,
and the enduring defeat
means not simply smashing

the last of ISIS' conventional
military units holding terrain,
but ensuring that ISIS Doesn't

immediately come back and
sleeper cells come back
as an insurgent movement.

JOHN YANG: And just last week,
this from Brett McGurk, special
envoy to the coalition fighting

ISIS:

BRETT MCGURK, Special
Presidential Envoy for
the Global Coalition to
Counter ISIL: I think

it's fair to say Americans
will remain on the ground after
the physical defeat of the

caliphate, until we have the
pieces in place to ensure
that that defeat is enduring.

And nobody is declaring
a mission accomplished.

JOHN YANG: The U.S.-led
campaign against ISIS began in
2014 with limited airstrikes.

While ISIS fighters have been
cleared from most population
centers, an estimated 10,000

to 15,000 remain
in the countryside.

Most of the American troops
are deployed in Northern Syria
working with Kurdish forces.

Thousands of other Islamist
militants, in addition to the
last of the anti-Assad rebels,

are in the northwestern
corner of the country.

Pro-government forces
have regained Central
and Southern Syria.

The remaining ISIS pockets are
near the Syria-Iraq border.

Some in the president's own
party say a U.S. withdrawal
could give ISIS new life.

South Carolina senator
Lindsey Graham:

SEN.

LINDSEY GRAHAM (R),
South Carolina: If we
do in fact withdraw,
the biggest winners are

going to be Iran, ISIS, Assad.

The biggest losers are
going to be, I think, the

people of Syria, potentially
America, if ISIS comes back and
projects force again, and our

allies.

JOHN YANG: At least one
Republican, Kentucky Senator
Rand Paul, backed Mr. Trump.

SEN.

RAND PAUL (R), Kentucky:
I'm very supportive of the
president's declaration.

I'm very supportive of
bringing the troops home.

JOHN YANG: The decision
will also likely please
Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, who

is threatening to attack
the U.S.-backed Kurdish
fighters in Syria.

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, Turkish
President (through translator):
Until the last terrorist in the

region is neutralized, we
will comb through Syrian
territory inch by inch.

JOHN YANG: He says
they're tied to a Kurdish
separatist group in Turkey.

For now, there's no
official timetable for a
U.S. withdrawal from Syria.

Late today, White House
officials said that would
be up to the Pentagon.

Now two views on President
Trump's decision to
withdraw forces from Syria.

Retired General John Allen
served as the special
presidential envoy for
the Global Coalition

to Counter ISIS during
the Obama administration.

He's now the president of
the Brookings Institution.

And Steve Simon also served
in the Obama administration.

He was the National Security
Council's senior director for
Middle Eastern and North African

affairs.

He's now a visiting
professor at Amherst College.

Gentlemen, thank you to
you both, and welcome.

Mr. Allen, I want
to start with you.

The president, as we heard,
has declared that ISIS has been
defeated, so there is no reason

for U.S. troops to be in Syria.

Do you agree?

GEN.

JOHN ALLEN (RET.), President
Brookings Institution:
I think we'd be very
careful about using the

word defeat with respect
to the Islamic State.

We may have defeated its large
concentrations, but there are
still thousands of Islamic State

operatives and fighters
still on the ground in Syria.

We have got to be very careful.

I think, while all of us
believed that our troops would
come out eventually, coming out

too quickly could create an
opportunity for the Islamic
State to backflash, which not

only would put at risk
those elements of the
Syrian population that
we supported in being

liberated; it could also
threaten the western
flank of the work that
our Iraqi allies did

and paid such a huge
price for in the defeat
of the Islamic State.

So we have got to be very
careful about using that word
defeat, and understand that the

Islamic State is still an
extraordinarily dangerous
organization, not just in Syria

and Iraq, but more
so globally as well.

JOHN YANG: Steven Simon,
what do you say to that?

He says pulling out too quickly
could trigger a backflash
that could threaten the Syrian

people.

STEVE SIMON, Former
National Security Council
Official: It's possible.

The United States was
going to have to pull its
forces out sooner or later.

The fact that there are
remaining ISIS sympathizers
or ISIS militants on the
ground, not organized

as military units or controlling
territory, is probably
something that would have vexed

any U.S. withdrawal at any
point, because the goal of
actually exterminating everyone

in Syria who has ISIS ideology
ricocheting around his or
her brain is simply going to

be impossible.

I think, you know, the
administration -- two
administrations, really,
working in series,

in sequence, have put an end
to the Islamic caliphate.

That's a major achievement,
and it was an achievement that
was widely expected, because

the correlation of forces
was so skewed in favor of the
alliance that was fighting ISIS.

But the ideology can't be
extirpated that simply.

It will be around.

And getting rid of that
ideology is not going to
be a military mission.

The fact is that the
United States has dropped
its aid program for
the reconstruction of

Syria in areas where
ISIS had been operating.

Unless those people get the
support they need to rebuild
their lives and their towns, the

ISIS ideology will
remain a serious problem.

It will always be there.

JOHN YANG: So, Mr. Simon, I
just want to make sure that I'm
clear on what you're sawing.

You support the withdrawal
now of U.S. troops?

STEVE SIMON: Yes.

Yes, I do.

I think the mission has
largely been accomplished.

The way in which the
administration has gone
about announcing it
was, you know, really

rather clumsy, and perhaps
even dangerous, because our
major partners had no idea that

this was coming down the pike.

So, there hasn't been the time
to coordinate with the Kurds,
with the French who are also

operating in that area, or
even, as a practical matter,
with the Turks or the Russians.

So, you know, this kind of
way of doing business can
be extremely destabilizing.

But as -- but as a matter of
principle, I think, yes, it's
probably a good idea to be

bringing our troops
out at this stage.

JOHN YANG: Well, Mr. Allen,
let's pick up that point that
this way of business can be

destabilizing.

What -- you talked about the
effect on the Syrian people.

What's the effect or could
be the effect on the Kurdish
people in particular?

GEN.

JOHN ALLEN: All of us believed
that those troops would have
to go home at some point.

The question is, is that
population sufficiently
stable to prevent a backflash
or a re-radicalization?

The other issue here is
this kind of confusion in
Washington, by virtue of
how this was promulgated

today, and the apparent
disagreements within the
administration on how
-- on how this should

be executed has, I'm sure, had a
negative effect upon the Kurds.

And I will make another point:
No one except the United
States could lead this process.

And it's very important that,
in this city, we remember that a
large coalition of international

partners came together under
American leadership ultimately
to defeat the Islamic State.

But if we defeat the Islamic
State, and to use our term
to defeat the Islamic State,

if we inflict a lot of damage
on the Islamic State, and
then pull out too quickly, and

we get a backflash, or if
we leave that population
completely unsecure, and
the retaliation begins,

as the regime elements
or the Russian firepower
begins to be applied to
them, then we're going

to have to take responsibility
for that in the end.

JOHN YANG: Mr. Simon, what
do you have to say to that?

STEVE SIMON: The Kurds
face a tragic choice.

They can either submit to a
Turkish rule, which will be
carried out through the Turks'

Sunni Arab allies, who are not
sympathetic to the Kurds, or
the Kurds can submit to rule

by the Assad regime.

But the Assad regime is not
going to give the Kurds the
autonomy or the independence

that they so badly want,
that they have been
seeking for so long.

It was inevitable that the
United States was going to turn
its back on the Kurds, because,

in terms of strategic logic,
Turkey is so much more
important to the United States,

especially now, than are the
Kurds, in a global context in
which the United States now sees

a resurgent Russia, and needs
to wonder how to strengthen
NATO, of which Turkey is a part,

and push back against
Russian provocations.

JOHN YANG: John
Allen, very quickly.

GEN.

JOHN ALLEN: Yes, Steve's right.

There's a tragic choice
here with the Kurds.

But this administration has
the potential, if it pulls
our troops out too quickly, of

turning that tragic choice into
a humanitarian catastrophe,
and we shouldn't do that.

We need come out on a timeline
ultimately that both protects
that population and does

a very clear, incremental
handover, in such a way that we
don't put our allies in Northern

Syria at risk to retaliation and
retribution in the aftermath.

JOHN YANG: Gentlemen, we're
going to have to leave it there.

John Allen of the Brookings
Institution, Steven
Simon of Amherst College,
thank you very much.