WEBVTT 00:01.966 --> 00:04.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: We return now to our other top story: the president's decision to withdraw 00:04.200 --> 00:06.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% American forces from Syria. 00:06.533 --> 00:11.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% As John Yang reports, it came as an unwelcome surprise to U.S. allies and to many in both 00:12.933 --> 00:14.933 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% political parties on Capitol Hill. 00:14.933 --> 00:19.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN YANG: Throughout the year, President Trump has promised a change in Syria strategy. 00:19.600 --> 00:21.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: And, by the way, we're knocking the hell out 00:21.933 --> 00:23.200 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% of ISIS. 00:23.200 --> 00:24.766 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% We will be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. 00:24.766 --> 00:27.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% JOHN YANG: Today, it appeared soon could be here. 00:27.600 --> 00:32.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% First, a tweet: "We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there." 00:34.566 --> 00:38.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Then a White House statement: "We have started returning troops home as we transition to 00:38.466 --> 00:41.000 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% the next phase of this campaign." 00:41.000 --> 00:44.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But the shift appears at odds with many of his top aides. 00:44.566 --> 00:49.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% In October, National Security Adviser John Bolton said the 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria 00:51.400 --> 00:54.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% will stay, as long as Iran and its allies are there supporting Bashar al-Assad, the 00:55.933 --> 00:57.900 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Syrian president. 00:57.900 --> 01:00.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Last month, Jim Jeffrey, the U.S. special representative for Syria: 01:00.200 --> 01:02.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JAMES JEFFREY, U.S. Special Representative for Syria Engagement: Their mission right 01:02.800 --> 01:06.600 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% now from the president is the enduring defeat, and the enduring defeat means not simply smashing 01:08.600 --> 01:12.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% the last of ISIS' conventional military units holding terrain, but ensuring that ISIS Doesn't 01:14.800 --> 01:17.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% immediately come back and sleeper cells come back as an insurgent movement. 01:17.933 --> 01:22.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN YANG: And just last week, this from Brett McGurk, special envoy to the coalition fighting 01:23.500 --> 01:25.600 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% ISIS: 01:25.600 --> 01:27.533 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% BRETT MCGURK, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL: I think 01:27.533 --> 01:29.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% it's fair to say Americans will remain on the ground after the physical defeat of the 01:29.566 --> 01:31.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% caliphate, until we have the pieces in place to ensure that that defeat is enduring. 01:31.333 --> 01:33.533 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And nobody is declaring a mission accomplished. 01:33.533 --> 01:38.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN YANG: The U.S.-led campaign against ISIS began in 2014 with limited airstrikes. 01:40.566 --> 01:45.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% While ISIS fighters have been cleared from most population centers, an estimated 10,000 01:46.433 --> 01:48.566 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% to 15,000 remain in the countryside. 01:48.566 --> 01:53.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Most of the American troops are deployed in Northern Syria working with Kurdish forces. 01:55.600 --> 01:58.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Thousands of other Islamist militants, in addition to the last of the anti-Assad rebels, 01:58.400 --> 02:01.033 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% are in the northwestern corner of the country. 02:01.033 --> 02:04.800 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% Pro-government forces have regained Central and Southern Syria. 02:04.800 --> 02:08.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The remaining ISIS pockets are near the Syria-Iraq border. 02:08.866 --> 02:13.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Some in the president's own party say a U.S. withdrawal could give ISIS new life. 02:13.666 --> 02:15.400 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham: 02:15.400 --> 02:17.433 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% SEN. 02:17.433 --> 02:18.600 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), South Carolina: If we do in fact withdraw, the biggest winners are 02:18.600 --> 02:20.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% going to be Iran, ISIS, Assad. 02:20.700 --> 02:25.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The biggest losers are going to be, I think, the 02:28.500 --> 02:33.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% people of Syria, potentially America, if ISIS comes back and projects force again, and our 02:36.633 --> 02:38.700 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% allies. 02:38.700 --> 02:42.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN YANG: At least one Republican, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, backed Mr. Trump. 02:42.033 --> 02:44.100 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% SEN. 02:44.100 --> 02:45.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% RAND PAUL (R), Kentucky: I'm very supportive of the president's declaration. 02:45.566 --> 02:47.733 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I'm very supportive of bringing the troops home. 02:47.733 --> 02:51.033 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% JOHN YANG: The decision will also likely please Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who 02:51.033 --> 02:54.500 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% is threatening to attack the U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria. 02:54.500 --> 02:58.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, Turkish President (through translator): Until the last terrorist in the 02:58.733 --> 03:03.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% region is neutralized, we will comb through Syrian territory inch by inch. 03:03.333 --> 03:07.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN YANG: He says they're tied to a Kurdish separatist group in Turkey. 03:07.466 --> 03:11.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% For now, there's no official timetable for a U.S. withdrawal from Syria. 03:11.800 --> 03:16.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Late today, White House officials said that would be up to the Pentagon. 03:18.700 --> 03:21.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Now two views on President Trump's decision to withdraw forces from Syria. 03:21.633 --> 03:26.600 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% Retired General John Allen served as the special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition 03:26.600 --> 03:29.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to Counter ISIS during the Obama administration. 03:29.600 --> 03:32.466 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% He's now the president of the Brookings Institution. 03:32.466 --> 03:35.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And Steve Simon also served in the Obama administration. 03:35.266 --> 03:40.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% He was the National Security Council's senior director for Middle Eastern and North African 03:41.400 --> 03:42.766 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% affairs. 03:42.766 --> 03:44.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% He's now a visiting professor at Amherst College. 03:44.900 --> 03:48.000 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% Gentlemen, thank you to you both, and welcome. 03:48.000 --> 03:50.066 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% Mr. Allen, I want to start with you. 03:50.066 --> 03:54.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The president, as we heard, has declared that ISIS has been defeated, so there is no reason 03:55.366 --> 03:56.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% for U.S. troops to be in Syria. 03:56.166 --> 03:57.166 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% Do you agree? 03:57.166 --> 03:59.633 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% GEN. 03:59.633 --> 04:00.933 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% JOHN ALLEN (RET.), President Brookings Institution: I think we'd be very careful about using the 04:00.933 --> 04:03.900 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% word defeat with respect to the Islamic State. 04:03.900 --> 04:08.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% We may have defeated its large concentrations, but there are still thousands of Islamic State 04:10.266 --> 04:11.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% operatives and fighters still on the ground in Syria. 04:11.533 --> 04:13.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We have got to be very careful. 04:13.566 --> 04:18.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I think, while all of us believed that our troops would come out eventually, coming out 04:20.566 --> 04:23.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% too quickly could create an opportunity for the Islamic State to backflash, which not 04:25.866 --> 04:29.233 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% only would put at risk those elements of the Syrian population that we supported in being 04:31.200 --> 04:34.966 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% liberated; it could also threaten the western flank of the work that our Iraqi allies did 04:36.533 --> 04:40.666 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% and paid such a huge price for in the defeat of the Islamic State. 04:42.600 --> 04:45.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So we have got to be very careful about using that word defeat, and understand that the 04:45.433 --> 04:50.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Islamic State is still an extraordinarily dangerous organization, not just in Syria 04:51.600 --> 04:54.166 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% and Iraq, but more so globally as well. 04:54.166 --> 04:56.700 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% JOHN YANG: Steven Simon, what do you say to that? 04:56.700 --> 05:00.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% He says pulling out too quickly could trigger a backflash that could threaten the Syrian 05:00.833 --> 05:02.833 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% people. 05:02.833 --> 05:05.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% STEVE SIMON, Former National Security Council Official: It's possible. 05:05.266 --> 05:10.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The United States was going to have to pull its forces out sooner or later. 05:12.700 --> 05:15.800 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% The fact that there are remaining ISIS sympathizers or ISIS militants on the ground, not organized 05:17.700 --> 05:22.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% as military units or controlling territory, is probably something that would have vexed 05:25.400 --> 05:30.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% any U.S. withdrawal at any point, because the goal of actually exterminating everyone 05:33.600 --> 05:38.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% in Syria who has ISIS ideology ricocheting around his or her brain is simply going to 05:43.966 --> 05:46.066 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% be impossible. 05:46.066 --> 05:51.066 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% I think, you know, the administration -- two administrations, really, working in series, 05:52.966 --> 05:57.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in sequence, have put an end to the Islamic caliphate. 05:59.966 --> 06:03.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% That's a major achievement, and it was an achievement that was widely expected, because 06:03.266 --> 06:08.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% the correlation of forces was so skewed in favor of the alliance that was fighting ISIS. 06:11.233 --> 06:16.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But the ideology can't be extirpated that simply. 06:17.200 --> 06:18.933 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% It will be around. 06:18.933 --> 06:23.933 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% And getting rid of that ideology is not going to be a military mission. 06:26.333 --> 06:29.833 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% The fact is that the United States has dropped its aid program for the reconstruction of 06:31.366 --> 06:35.900 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% Syria in areas where ISIS had been operating. 06:35.900 --> 06:40.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Unless those people get the support they need to rebuild their lives and their towns, the 06:45.433 --> 06:48.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% ISIS ideology will remain a serious problem. 06:48.933 --> 06:50.933 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% It will always be there. 06:50.933 --> 06:53.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN YANG: So, Mr. Simon, I just want to make sure that I'm clear on what you're sawing. 06:53.800 --> 06:57.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You support the withdrawal now of U.S. troops? 06:57.500 --> 06:59.600 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% STEVE SIMON: Yes. 06:59.600 --> 07:02.333 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% Yes, I do. 07:02.333 --> 07:05.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% I think the mission has largely been accomplished. 07:05.200 --> 07:10.200 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% The way in which the administration has gone about announcing it was, you know, really 07:12.100 --> 07:16.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% rather clumsy, and perhaps even dangerous, because our major partners had no idea that 07:19.166 --> 07:21.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% this was coming down the pike. 07:21.266 --> 07:25.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So, there hasn't been the time to coordinate with the Kurds, with the French who are also 07:27.666 --> 07:31.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% operating in that area, or even, as a practical matter, with the Turks or the Russians. 07:33.433 --> 07:38.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So, you know, this kind of way of doing business can be extremely destabilizing. 07:42.200 --> 07:47.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But as -- but as a matter of principle, I think, yes, it's probably a good idea to be 07:48.366 --> 07:50.433 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% bringing our troops out at this stage. 07:50.433 --> 07:54.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN YANG: Well, Mr. Allen, let's pick up that point that this way of business can be 07:54.366 --> 07:55.900 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% destabilizing. 07:55.900 --> 07:58.133 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% What -- you talked about the effect on the Syrian people. 07:58.133 --> 08:01.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% What's the effect or could be the effect on the Kurdish people in particular? 08:01.566 --> 08:03.600 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% GEN. 08:03.600 --> 08:06.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JOHN ALLEN: All of us believed that those troops would have to go home at some point. 08:06.033 --> 08:10.966 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% The question is, is that population sufficiently stable to prevent a backflash or a re-radicalization? 08:13.533 --> 08:17.233 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% The other issue here is this kind of confusion in Washington, by virtue of how this was promulgated 08:19.833 --> 08:24.833 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% today, and the apparent disagreements within the administration on how -- on how this should 08:26.300 --> 08:30.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% be executed has, I'm sure, had a negative effect upon the Kurds. 08:32.400 --> 08:36.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And I will make another point: No one except the United States could lead this process. 08:38.366 --> 08:42.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And it's very important that, in this city, we remember that a large coalition of international 08:44.200 --> 08:47.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% partners came together under American leadership ultimately to defeat the Islamic State. 08:49.766 --> 08:52.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But if we defeat the Islamic State, and to use our term to defeat the Islamic State, 08:52.733 --> 08:57.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% if we inflict a lot of damage on the Islamic State, and then pull out too quickly, and 08:57.233 --> 09:02.233 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% we get a backflash, or if we leave that population completely unsecure, and the retaliation begins, 09:04.300 --> 09:08.233 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% as the regime elements or the Russian firepower begins to be applied to them, then we're going 09:08.233 --> 09:10.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% to have to take responsibility for that in the end. 09:10.166 --> 09:12.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% JOHN YANG: Mr. Simon, what do you have to say to that? 09:12.233 --> 09:14.533 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% STEVE SIMON: The Kurds face a tragic choice. 09:14.533 --> 09:19.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% They can either submit to a Turkish rule, which will be carried out through the Turks' 09:21.533 --> 09:25.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Sunni Arab allies, who are not sympathetic to the Kurds, or the Kurds can submit to rule 09:27.200 --> 09:29.333 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% by the Assad regime. 09:29.333 --> 09:34.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But the Assad regime is not going to give the Kurds the autonomy or the independence 09:34.000 --> 09:39.000 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% that they so badly want, that they have been seeking for so long. 09:40.966 --> 09:44.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% It was inevitable that the United States was going to turn its back on the Kurds, because, 09:45.966 --> 09:49.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% in terms of strategic logic, Turkey is so much more important to the United States, 09:51.300 --> 09:54.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% especially now, than are the Kurds, in a global context in which the United States now sees 09:57.633 --> 10:02.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% a resurgent Russia, and needs to wonder how to strengthen NATO, of which Turkey is a part, 10:06.333 --> 10:09.566 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% and push back against Russian provocations. 10:09.566 --> 10:11.800 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% JOHN YANG: John Allen, very quickly. 10:11.800 --> 10:12.800 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% GEN. 10:12.800 --> 10:14.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% JOHN ALLEN: Yes, Steve's right. 10:14.066 --> 10:17.433 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% There's a tragic choice here with the Kurds. 10:17.433 --> 10:21.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But this administration has the potential, if it pulls our troops out too quickly, of 10:21.300 --> 10:25.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% turning that tragic choice into a humanitarian catastrophe, and we shouldn't do that. 10:25.833 --> 10:30.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% We need come out on a timeline ultimately that both protects that population and does 10:30.633 --> 10:35.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% a very clear, incremental handover, in such a way that we don't put our allies in Northern 10:37.100 --> 10:40.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Syria at risk to retaliation and retribution in the aftermath. 10:40.500 --> 10:42.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% JOHN YANG: Gentlemen, we're going to have to leave it there. 10:42.966 --> 10:45.933 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% John Allen of the Brookings Institution, Steven Simon of Amherst College, thank you very much.