1 00:00:01,966 --> 00:00:04,200 JUDY WOODRUFF: We return now to our other top story: the president's decision to withdraw 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:06,533 American forces from Syria. 3 00:00:06,533 --> 00:00:11,533 As John Yang reports, it came as an unwelcome surprise to U.S. allies and to many in both 4 00:00:12,933 --> 00:00:14,933 political parties on Capitol Hill. 5 00:00:14,933 --> 00:00:19,600 JOHN YANG: Throughout the year, President Trump has promised a change in Syria strategy. 6 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:21,933 DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: And, by the way, we're knocking the hell out 7 00:00:21,933 --> 00:00:23,200 of ISIS. 8 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:24,766 We will be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. 9 00:00:24,766 --> 00:00:27,600 JOHN YANG: Today, it appeared soon could be here. 10 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:32,600 First, a tweet: "We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there." 11 00:00:34,566 --> 00:00:38,466 Then a White House statement: "We have started returning troops home as we transition to 12 00:00:38,466 --> 00:00:41,000 the next phase of this campaign." 13 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,566 But the shift appears at odds with many of his top aides. 14 00:00:44,566 --> 00:00:49,533 In October, National Security Adviser John Bolton said the 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria 15 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,600 will stay, as long as Iran and its allies are there supporting Bashar al-Assad, the 16 00:00:55,933 --> 00:00:57,900 Syrian president. 17 00:00:57,900 --> 00:01:00,200 Last month, Jim Jeffrey, the U.S. special representative for Syria: 18 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,800 JAMES JEFFREY, U.S. Special Representative for Syria Engagement: Their mission right 19 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,600 now from the president is the enduring defeat, and the enduring defeat means not simply smashing 20 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,766 the last of ISIS' conventional military units holding terrain, but ensuring that ISIS Doesn't 21 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,933 immediately come back and sleeper cells come back as an insurgent movement. 22 00:01:17,933 --> 00:01:22,933 JOHN YANG: And just last week, this from Brett McGurk, special envoy to the coalition fighting 23 00:01:23,500 --> 00:01:25,600 ISIS: 24 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:27,533 BRETT MCGURK, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL: I think 25 00:01:27,533 --> 00:01:29,566 it's fair to say Americans will remain on the ground after the physical defeat of the 26 00:01:29,566 --> 00:01:31,333 caliphate, until we have the pieces in place to ensure that that defeat is enduring. 27 00:01:31,333 --> 00:01:33,533 And nobody is declaring a mission accomplished. 28 00:01:33,533 --> 00:01:38,533 JOHN YANG: The U.S.-led campaign against ISIS began in 2014 with limited airstrikes. 29 00:01:40,566 --> 00:01:45,266 While ISIS fighters have been cleared from most population centers, an estimated 10,000 30 00:01:46,433 --> 00:01:48,566 to 15,000 remain in the countryside. 31 00:01:48,566 --> 00:01:53,533 Most of the American troops are deployed in Northern Syria working with Kurdish forces. 32 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,400 Thousands of other Islamist militants, in addition to the last of the anti-Assad rebels, 33 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,033 are in the northwestern corner of the country. 34 00:02:01,033 --> 00:02:04,800 Pro-government forces have regained Central and Southern Syria. 35 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,866 The remaining ISIS pockets are near the Syria-Iraq border. 36 00:02:08,866 --> 00:02:13,666 Some in the president's own party say a U.S. withdrawal could give ISIS new life. 37 00:02:13,666 --> 00:02:15,400 South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham: 38 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,433 SEN. 39 00:02:17,433 --> 00:02:18,600 LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), South Carolina: If we do in fact withdraw, the biggest winners are 40 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,700 going to be Iran, ISIS, Assad. 41 00:02:20,700 --> 00:02:25,700 The biggest losers are going to be, I think, the 42 00:02:28,500 --> 00:02:33,500 people of Syria, potentially America, if ISIS comes back and projects force again, and our 43 00:02:36,633 --> 00:02:38,700 allies. 44 00:02:38,700 --> 00:02:42,033 JOHN YANG: At least one Republican, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, backed Mr. Trump. 45 00:02:42,033 --> 00:02:44,100 SEN. 46 00:02:44,100 --> 00:02:45,566 RAND PAUL (R), Kentucky: I'm very supportive of the president's declaration. 47 00:02:45,566 --> 00:02:47,733 I'm very supportive of bringing the troops home. 48 00:02:47,733 --> 00:02:51,033 JOHN YANG: The decision will also likely please Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who 49 00:02:51,033 --> 00:02:54,500 is threatening to attack the U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria. 50 00:02:54,500 --> 00:02:58,733 RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, Turkish President (through translator): Until the last terrorist in the 51 00:02:58,733 --> 00:03:03,333 region is neutralized, we will comb through Syrian territory inch by inch. 52 00:03:03,333 --> 00:03:07,466 JOHN YANG: He says they're tied to a Kurdish separatist group in Turkey. 53 00:03:07,466 --> 00:03:11,800 For now, there's no official timetable for a U.S. withdrawal from Syria. 54 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:16,800 Late today, White House officials said that would be up to the Pentagon. 55 00:03:18,700 --> 00:03:21,633 Now two views on President Trump's decision to withdraw forces from Syria. 56 00:03:21,633 --> 00:03:26,600 Retired General John Allen served as the special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition 57 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,600 to Counter ISIS during the Obama administration. 58 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,466 He's now the president of the Brookings Institution. 59 00:03:32,466 --> 00:03:35,266 And Steve Simon also served in the Obama administration. 60 00:03:35,266 --> 00:03:40,266 He was the National Security Council's senior director for Middle Eastern and North African 61 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:42,766 affairs. 62 00:03:42,766 --> 00:03:44,900 He's now a visiting professor at Amherst College. 63 00:03:44,900 --> 00:03:48,000 Gentlemen, thank you to you both, and welcome. 64 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,066 Mr. Allen, I want to start with you. 65 00:03:50,066 --> 00:03:54,466 The president, as we heard, has declared that ISIS has been defeated, so there is no reason 66 00:03:55,366 --> 00:03:56,166 for U.S. troops to be in Syria. 67 00:03:56,166 --> 00:03:57,166 Do you agree? 68 00:03:57,166 --> 00:03:59,633 GEN. 69 00:03:59,633 --> 00:04:00,933 JOHN ALLEN (RET.), President Brookings Institution: I think we'd be very careful about using the 70 00:04:00,933 --> 00:04:03,900 word defeat with respect to the Islamic State. 71 00:04:03,900 --> 00:04:08,900 We may have defeated its large concentrations, but there are still thousands of Islamic State 72 00:04:10,266 --> 00:04:11,533 operatives and fighters still on the ground in Syria. 73 00:04:11,533 --> 00:04:13,566 We have got to be very careful. 74 00:04:13,566 --> 00:04:18,566 I think, while all of us believed that our troops would come out eventually, coming out 75 00:04:20,566 --> 00:04:23,733 too quickly could create an opportunity for the Islamic State to backflash, which not 76 00:04:25,866 --> 00:04:29,233 only would put at risk those elements of the Syrian population that we supported in being 77 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,966 liberated; it could also threaten the western flank of the work that our Iraqi allies did 78 00:04:36,533 --> 00:04:40,666 and paid such a huge price for in the defeat of the Islamic State. 79 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,433 So we have got to be very careful about using that word defeat, and understand that the 80 00:04:45,433 --> 00:04:50,433 Islamic State is still an extraordinarily dangerous organization, not just in Syria 81 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,166 and Iraq, but more so globally as well. 82 00:04:54,166 --> 00:04:56,700 JOHN YANG: Steven Simon, what do you say to that? 83 00:04:56,700 --> 00:05:00,833 He says pulling out too quickly could trigger a backflash that could threaten the Syrian 84 00:05:00,833 --> 00:05:02,833 people. 85 00:05:02,833 --> 00:05:05,266 STEVE SIMON, Former National Security Council Official: It's possible. 86 00:05:05,266 --> 00:05:10,266 The United States was going to have to pull its forces out sooner or later. 87 00:05:12,700 --> 00:05:15,800 The fact that there are remaining ISIS sympathizers or ISIS militants on the ground, not organized 88 00:05:17,700 --> 00:05:22,666 as military units or controlling territory, is probably something that would have vexed 89 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:30,400 any U.S. withdrawal at any point, because the goal of actually exterminating everyone 90 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:38,600 in Syria who has ISIS ideology ricocheting around his or her brain is simply going to 91 00:05:43,966 --> 00:05:46,066 be impossible. 92 00:05:46,066 --> 00:05:51,066 I think, you know, the administration -- two administrations, really, working in series, 93 00:05:52,966 --> 00:05:57,966 in sequence, have put an end to the Islamic caliphate. 94 00:05:59,966 --> 00:06:03,266 That's a major achievement, and it was an achievement that was widely expected, because 95 00:06:03,266 --> 00:06:08,266 the correlation of forces was so skewed in favor of the alliance that was fighting ISIS. 96 00:06:11,233 --> 00:06:16,233 But the ideology can't be extirpated that simply. 97 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:18,933 It will be around. 98 00:06:18,933 --> 00:06:23,933 And getting rid of that ideology is not going to be a military mission. 99 00:06:26,333 --> 00:06:29,833 The fact is that the United States has dropped its aid program for the reconstruction of 100 00:06:31,366 --> 00:06:35,900 Syria in areas where ISIS had been operating. 101 00:06:35,900 --> 00:06:40,900 Unless those people get the support they need to rebuild their lives and their towns, the 102 00:06:45,433 --> 00:06:48,933 ISIS ideology will remain a serious problem. 103 00:06:48,933 --> 00:06:50,933 It will always be there. 104 00:06:50,933 --> 00:06:53,800 JOHN YANG: So, Mr. Simon, I just want to make sure that I'm clear on what you're sawing. 105 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:57,500 You support the withdrawal now of U.S. troops? 106 00:06:57,500 --> 00:06:59,600 STEVE SIMON: Yes. 107 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,333 Yes, I do. 108 00:07:02,333 --> 00:07:05,200 I think the mission has largely been accomplished. 109 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:10,200 The way in which the administration has gone about announcing it was, you know, really 110 00:07:12,100 --> 00:07:16,733 rather clumsy, and perhaps even dangerous, because our major partners had no idea that 111 00:07:19,166 --> 00:07:21,266 this was coming down the pike. 112 00:07:21,266 --> 00:07:25,766 So, there hasn't been the time to coordinate with the Kurds, with the French who are also 113 00:07:27,666 --> 00:07:31,433 operating in that area, or even, as a practical matter, with the Turks or the Russians. 114 00:07:33,433 --> 00:07:38,200 So, you know, this kind of way of doing business can be extremely destabilizing. 115 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:47,200 But as -- but as a matter of principle, I think, yes, it's probably a good idea to be 116 00:07:48,366 --> 00:07:50,433 bringing our troops out at this stage. 117 00:07:50,433 --> 00:07:54,366 JOHN YANG: Well, Mr. Allen, let's pick up that point that this way of business can be 118 00:07:54,366 --> 00:07:55,900 destabilizing. 119 00:07:55,900 --> 00:07:58,133 What -- you talked about the effect on the Syrian people. 120 00:07:58,133 --> 00:08:01,566 What's the effect or could be the effect on the Kurdish people in particular? 121 00:08:01,566 --> 00:08:03,600 GEN. 122 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,033 JOHN ALLEN: All of us believed that those troops would have to go home at some point. 123 00:08:06,033 --> 00:08:10,966 The question is, is that population sufficiently stable to prevent a backflash or a re-radicalization? 124 00:08:13,533 --> 00:08:17,233 The other issue here is this kind of confusion in Washington, by virtue of how this was promulgated 125 00:08:19,833 --> 00:08:24,833 today, and the apparent disagreements within the administration on how -- on how this should 126 00:08:26,300 --> 00:08:30,500 be executed has, I'm sure, had a negative effect upon the Kurds. 127 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:36,333 And I will make another point: No one except the United States could lead this process. 128 00:08:38,366 --> 00:08:42,200 And it's very important that, in this city, we remember that a large coalition of international 129 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,733 partners came together under American leadership ultimately to defeat the Islamic State. 130 00:08:49,766 --> 00:08:52,733 But if we defeat the Islamic State, and to use our term to defeat the Islamic State, 131 00:08:52,733 --> 00:08:57,233 if we inflict a lot of damage on the Islamic State, and then pull out too quickly, and 132 00:08:57,233 --> 00:09:02,233 we get a backflash, or if we leave that population completely unsecure, and the retaliation begins, 133 00:09:04,300 --> 00:09:08,233 as the regime elements or the Russian firepower begins to be applied to them, then we're going 134 00:09:08,233 --> 00:09:10,166 to have to take responsibility for that in the end. 135 00:09:10,166 --> 00:09:12,233 JOHN YANG: Mr. Simon, what do you have to say to that? 136 00:09:12,233 --> 00:09:14,533 STEVE SIMON: The Kurds face a tragic choice. 137 00:09:14,533 --> 00:09:19,533 They can either submit to a Turkish rule, which will be carried out through the Turks' 138 00:09:21,533 --> 00:09:25,433 Sunni Arab allies, who are not sympathetic to the Kurds, or the Kurds can submit to rule 139 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,333 by the Assad regime. 140 00:09:29,333 --> 00:09:34,000 But the Assad regime is not going to give the Kurds the autonomy or the independence 141 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:39,000 that they so badly want, that they have been seeking for so long. 142 00:09:40,966 --> 00:09:44,133 It was inevitable that the United States was going to turn its back on the Kurds, because, 143 00:09:45,966 --> 00:09:49,333 in terms of strategic logic, Turkey is so much more important to the United States, 144 00:09:51,300 --> 00:09:54,833 especially now, than are the Kurds, in a global context in which the United States now sees 145 00:09:57,633 --> 00:10:02,633 a resurgent Russia, and needs to wonder how to strengthen NATO, of which Turkey is a part, 146 00:10:06,333 --> 00:10:09,566 and push back against Russian provocations. 147 00:10:09,566 --> 00:10:11,800 JOHN YANG: John Allen, very quickly. 148 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:12,800 GEN. 149 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:14,066 JOHN ALLEN: Yes, Steve's right. 150 00:10:14,066 --> 00:10:17,433 There's a tragic choice here with the Kurds. 151 00:10:17,433 --> 00:10:21,300 But this administration has the potential, if it pulls our troops out too quickly, of 152 00:10:21,300 --> 00:10:25,833 turning that tragic choice into a humanitarian catastrophe, and we shouldn't do that. 153 00:10:25,833 --> 00:10:30,633 We need come out on a timeline ultimately that both protects that population and does 154 00:10:30,633 --> 00:10:35,633 a very clear, incremental handover, in such a way that we don't put our allies in Northern 155 00:10:37,100 --> 00:10:40,500 Syria at risk to retaliation and retribution in the aftermath. 156 00:10:40,500 --> 00:10:42,966 JOHN YANG: Gentlemen, we're going to have to leave it there. 157 00:10:42,966 --> 00:10:45,933 John Allen of the Brookings Institution, Steven Simon of Amherst College, thank you very much.