1 00:00:01,900 --> 00:00:05,266 JUDY WOODRUFF: Some questions: Will robots take our jobs or work alongside us? 2 00:00:05,266 --> 00:00:08,800 Are we doing enough to educate the next generation of workers? 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:12,500 How soon will technology radically change the work force? 4 00:00:12,500 --> 00:00:16,833 These are just some of the questions we will be exploring next week in a series called 5 00:00:16,833 --> 00:00:18,900 The Future of Work. 6 00:00:18,900 --> 00:00:23,633 Tonight, economics correspondent Paul Solman starts us off by putting a few of those concerns 7 00:00:24,366 --> 00:00:25,566 into perspective. 8 00:00:25,566 --> 00:00:27,833 It's part of our weekly series Making Sense. 9 00:00:27,833 --> 00:00:32,833 PAUL SOLMAN: First, the job scare story you have likely heard: millions of humans replaced 10 00:00:34,833 --> 00:00:38,566 by robots, 75 million of them within five years, says the World Economic Forum. 11 00:00:40,566 --> 00:00:44,533 But it then adds, 133 million new jobs may be created at the same time. 12 00:00:45,733 --> 00:00:47,366 That's what's called creative destruction. 13 00:00:47,366 --> 00:00:49,433 Here's Carl Frey of Oxford University: 14 00:00:49,433 --> 00:00:53,100 CARL BENEDIKT FREY, Oxford University: This has -- theme has been recurring from time 15 00:00:53,100 --> 00:00:55,533 to time for the past 200 years. 16 00:00:55,533 --> 00:00:59,733 If you go back to the Roman Empire, there were people expressing concerns over technological 17 00:00:59,733 --> 00:01:00,933 unemployment as well. 18 00:01:00,933 --> 00:01:02,366 PAUL SOLMAN: Why? 19 00:01:02,366 --> 00:01:04,666 Well, for one thing, losing a job really hurts. 20 00:01:04,666 --> 00:01:09,566 Roman Emperor Vespasian built the Coliseum without the help of labor-saving technology 21 00:01:09,566 --> 00:01:14,566 to move heavy columns because it would displace manual labor, threaten civil unrest. 22 00:01:16,566 --> 00:01:21,366 Remember the Luddites, who broke the high-tech textile looms of the early 1800s to save their 23 00:01:22,500 --> 00:01:24,666 jobs, and were hanged for their efforts? 24 00:01:24,666 --> 00:01:29,666 The Washington Post employees who sabotaged automated presses in 1975? 25 00:01:31,533 --> 00:01:35,133 And it's not hard to understand why workers are so resistant to creative destruction. 26 00:01:35,133 --> 00:01:37,000 Here's MIT's Andrew McAfee: 27 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:38,633 ANDREW MCAFEE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Change is scary. 28 00:01:38,633 --> 00:01:40,500 We humans have a bias for the status quo. 29 00:01:40,500 --> 00:01:43,166 We don't want the boat rocked really hard. 30 00:01:43,166 --> 00:01:47,666 And it's always easier to focus on the destruction part than the creation part, for a lot of 31 00:01:47,666 --> 00:01:49,166 obvious reasons. 32 00:01:49,166 --> 00:01:51,266 It's easy to see this job being automated away. 33 00:01:51,266 --> 00:01:55,033 It's not as immediately clear what kinds of jobs, what kinds of opportunities are being 34 00:01:55,033 --> 00:01:57,500 created by technology. 35 00:01:57,500 --> 00:02:01,266 PAUL SOLMAN: Study after study has found significant physical and mental health effects of even 36 00:02:01,266 --> 00:02:05,266 one layoff, even when the person found another job. 37 00:02:05,266 --> 00:02:10,266 And Oxford's Carl Frey has estimated that almost half of U.S. jobs are at risk of elimination. 38 00:02:12,266 --> 00:02:15,366 CARL BENEDIKT FREY: If economic history provides guidance, it suggests that we will continue 39 00:02:15,366 --> 00:02:17,800 to create a lot of new jobs as well. 40 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:22,800 But, even if we do, there's no assurance that the people that lose out to automation in 41 00:02:24,866 --> 00:02:28,733 the short run are going to be the ones employed in the new jobs that emerge in the long run. 42 00:02:31,166 --> 00:02:34,166 PAUL SOLMAN: Another problem with creative destruction, technological progress, automation, 43 00:02:36,666 --> 00:02:39,933 robots, they all threaten to amplify inequality, creating more high-paying jobs, possibly more 44 00:02:41,366 --> 00:02:44,033 low-paying jobs, but not nearly enough in between. 45 00:02:44,033 --> 00:02:49,033 ANDREW MCAFEE: We see technology creating really good jobs, very high-paying jobs, really 46 00:02:49,666 --> 00:02:52,100 great careers. 47 00:02:52,100 --> 00:02:55,500 User interface designer is a great job, data scientist, machine learning specialist, product 48 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:58,366 manager at a high-tech company. 49 00:02:58,366 --> 00:03:01,366 These are really, really good jobs, upper-middle-class and above kinds of jobs. 50 00:03:01,366 --> 00:03:06,366 There's also a huge bulge of jobs being created down at the low end of the pay scale. 51 00:03:07,433 --> 00:03:09,966 And these are typically in-person jobs. 52 00:03:09,966 --> 00:03:11,600 They're typically service jobs. 53 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:16,600 So, we are not creating this big group of great middle-class jobs. 54 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:21,600 PAUL SOLMAN: There's at least one more question worth exploring about the future of work: 55 00:03:22,733 --> 00:03:24,766 How fast are things going to change? 56 00:03:24,766 --> 00:03:28,733 Are the robots and driverless trucks just around the corner, or still miles and miles 57 00:03:28,733 --> 00:03:29,733 down the road? 58 00:03:29,733 --> 00:03:31,666 Again, MIT's McAfee. 59 00:03:31,666 --> 00:03:35,200 ANDREW MCAFEE: Lots of technology changes are going to happen quicker than we think. 60 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,733 And I say that for two main reasons. 61 00:03:37,733 --> 00:03:42,100 The first one is that all the elements, all the building blocks of really powerful technology 62 00:03:44,066 --> 00:03:46,366 platforms and companies, all those building blocks are improving super quickly. 63 00:03:46,366 --> 00:03:48,766 They got networks, processors, storage, bandwidth. 64 00:03:48,766 --> 00:03:53,033 And innovators and entrepreneurs are combining those building blocks in really interesting 65 00:03:53,033 --> 00:03:55,600 ways, and they're doing it faster and cheaper than ever before. 66 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,400 PAUL SOLMAN: And so these are the questions we will explore in next week's Future of Work 67 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,566 series. 68 00:04:01,566 --> 00:04:05,366 Can a small Kentucky community that once relied on jobs of the past be transformed into a 69 00:04:06,233 --> 00:04:08,133 hub of jobs of the future? 70 00:04:08,133 --> 00:04:12,666 Will technology and automation hurt minority populations the most? 71 00:04:12,666 --> 00:04:17,666 Are robots going to take our jobs, or will robot helpers, cobots, wind up working alongside 72 00:04:19,066 --> 00:04:20,066 us? 73 00:04:20,066 --> 00:04:21,433 Are truck drivers toast? 74 00:04:21,433 --> 00:04:24,266 And, if so, in what time frame? 75 00:04:24,266 --> 00:04:29,266 Finally, how much demand will there be for the humanities in a high-tech economy? 76 00:04:30,666 --> 00:04:33,633 We will try to answer those questions next week. 77 00:04:33,633 --> 00:04:36,100 For now, I'm economics correspondent Paul Solman. 78 00:04:36,100 --> 00:04:40,433 JUDY WOODRUFF: So, don't miss our entire series The Future of Work. 79 00:04:40,433 --> 00:04:43,866 That's next Monday through Friday on the "PBS NewsHour."