WEBVTT 00:01.900 --> 00:05.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: Some questions: Will robots take our jobs or work alongside us? 00:05.266 --> 00:08.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Are we doing enough to educate the next generation of workers? 00:08.800 --> 00:12.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% How soon will technology radically change the work force? 00:12.500 --> 00:16.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% These are just some of the questions we will be exploring next week in a series called 00:16.833 --> 00:18.900 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% The Future of Work. 00:18.900 --> 00:23.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Tonight, economics correspondent Paul Solman starts us off by putting a few of those concerns 00:24.366 --> 00:25.566 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% into perspective. 00:25.566 --> 00:27.833 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% It's part of our weekly series Making Sense. 00:27.833 --> 00:32.833 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% PAUL SOLMAN: First, the job scare story you have likely heard: millions of humans replaced 00:34.833 --> 00:38.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% by robots, 75 million of them within five years, says the World Economic Forum. 00:40.566 --> 00:44.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But it then adds, 133 million new jobs may be created at the same time. 00:45.733 --> 00:47.366 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% That's what's called creative destruction. 00:47.366 --> 00:49.433 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% Here's Carl Frey of Oxford University: 00:49.433 --> 00:53.100 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% CARL BENEDIKT FREY, Oxford University: This has -- theme has been recurring from time 00:53.100 --> 00:55.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to time for the past 200 years. 00:55.533 --> 00:59.733 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% If you go back to the Roman Empire, there were people expressing concerns over technological 00:59.733 --> 01:00.933 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% unemployment as well. 01:00.933 --> 01:02.366 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% PAUL SOLMAN: Why? 01:02.366 --> 01:04.666 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Well, for one thing, losing a job really hurts. 01:04.666 --> 01:09.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Roman Emperor Vespasian built the Coliseum without the help of labor-saving technology 01:09.566 --> 01:14.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% to move heavy columns because it would displace manual labor, threaten civil unrest. 01:16.566 --> 01:21.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Remember the Luddites, who broke the high-tech textile looms of the early 1800s to save their 01:22.500 --> 01:24.666 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% jobs, and were hanged for their efforts? 01:24.666 --> 01:29.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The Washington Post employees who sabotaged automated presses in 1975? 01:31.533 --> 01:35.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And it's not hard to understand why workers are so resistant to creative destruction. 01:35.133 --> 01:37.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Here's MIT's Andrew McAfee: 01:37.000 --> 01:38.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% ANDREW MCAFEE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Change is scary. 01:38.633 --> 01:40.500 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% We humans have a bias for the status quo. 01:40.500 --> 01:43.166 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% We don't want the boat rocked really hard. 01:43.166 --> 01:47.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And it's always easier to focus on the destruction part than the creation part, for a lot of 01:47.666 --> 01:49.166 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% obvious reasons. 01:49.166 --> 01:51.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% It's easy to see this job being automated away. 01:51.266 --> 01:55.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% It's not as immediately clear what kinds of jobs, what kinds of opportunities are being 01:55.033 --> 01:57.500 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% created by technology. 01:57.500 --> 02:01.266 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% PAUL SOLMAN: Study after study has found significant physical and mental health effects of even 02:01.266 --> 02:05.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% one layoff, even when the person found another job. 02:05.266 --> 02:10.266 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% And Oxford's Carl Frey has estimated that almost half of U.S. jobs are at risk of elimination. 02:12.266 --> 02:15.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% CARL BENEDIKT FREY: If economic history provides guidance, it suggests that we will continue 02:15.366 --> 02:17.800 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% to create a lot of new jobs as well. 02:17.800 --> 02:22.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But, even if we do, there's no assurance that the people that lose out to automation in 02:24.866 --> 02:28.733 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% the short run are going to be the ones employed in the new jobs that emerge in the long run. 02:31.166 --> 02:34.166 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% PAUL SOLMAN: Another problem with creative destruction, technological progress, automation, 02:36.666 --> 02:39.933 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% robots, they all threaten to amplify inequality, creating more high-paying jobs, possibly more 02:41.366 --> 02:44.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% low-paying jobs, but not nearly enough in between. 02:44.033 --> 02:49.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% ANDREW MCAFEE: We see technology creating really good jobs, very high-paying jobs, really 02:49.666 --> 02:52.100 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% great careers. 02:52.100 --> 02:55.500 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% User interface designer is a great job, data scientist, machine learning specialist, product 02:56.400 --> 02:58.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% manager at a high-tech company. 02:58.366 --> 03:01.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% These are really, really good jobs, upper-middle-class and above kinds of jobs. 03:01.366 --> 03:06.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% There's also a huge bulge of jobs being created down at the low end of the pay scale. 03:07.433 --> 03:09.966 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And these are typically in-person jobs. 03:09.966 --> 03:11.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% They're typically service jobs. 03:11.600 --> 03:16.600 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% So, we are not creating this big group of great middle-class jobs. 03:16.600 --> 03:21.600 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% PAUL SOLMAN: There's at least one more question worth exploring about the future of work: 03:22.733 --> 03:24.766 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% How fast are things going to change? 03:24.766 --> 03:28.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Are the robots and driverless trucks just around the corner, or still miles and miles 03:28.733 --> 03:29.733 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% down the road? 03:29.733 --> 03:31.666 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Again, MIT's McAfee. 03:31.666 --> 03:35.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% ANDREW MCAFEE: Lots of technology changes are going to happen quicker than we think. 03:35.200 --> 03:37.733 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And I say that for two main reasons. 03:37.733 --> 03:42.100 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% The first one is that all the elements, all the building blocks of really powerful technology 03:44.066 --> 03:46.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% platforms and companies, all those building blocks are improving super quickly. 03:46.366 --> 03:48.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They got networks, processors, storage, bandwidth. 03:48.766 --> 03:53.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And innovators and entrepreneurs are combining those building blocks in really interesting 03:53.033 --> 03:55.600 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% ways, and they're doing it faster and cheaper than ever before. 03:55.600 --> 03:59.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% PAUL SOLMAN: And so these are the questions we will explore in next week's Future of Work 03:59.400 --> 04:01.566 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% series. 04:01.566 --> 04:05.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Can a small Kentucky community that once relied on jobs of the past be transformed into a 04:06.233 --> 04:08.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% hub of jobs of the future? 04:08.133 --> 04:12.666 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% Will technology and automation hurt minority populations the most? 04:12.666 --> 04:17.666 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% Are robots going to take our jobs, or will robot helpers, cobots, wind up working alongside 04:19.066 --> 04:20.066 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% us? 04:20.066 --> 04:21.433 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Are truck drivers toast? 04:21.433 --> 04:24.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% And, if so, in what time frame? 04:24.266 --> 04:29.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Finally, how much demand will there be for the humanities in a high-tech economy? 04:30.666 --> 04:33.633 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We will try to answer those questions next week. 04:33.633 --> 04:36.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% For now, I'm economics correspondent Paul Solman. 04:36.100 --> 04:40.433 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: So, don't miss our entire series The Future of Work. 04:40.433 --> 04:43.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That's next Monday through Friday on the "PBS NewsHour."