WEBVTT 00:00.900 --> 00:01.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> Sreenivasan: THIS MONTH MARKS 00:01.800 --> 00:03.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE 40TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 00:03.066 --> 00:04.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IRANIAN REVOLUTION, WHEN 00:04.400 --> 00:06.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI RETURNED FROM 00:06.100 --> 00:07.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% EXILE, TOPPLING THE SHAH OF 00:07.600 --> 00:09.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IRAN'S REGIME AND CHANGING THE 00:09.500 --> 00:11.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% GOVERNMENT FROM A MONARCHY TO AN 00:11.233 --> 00:12.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. 00:12.900 --> 00:14.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT EVENT 00:14.566 --> 00:16.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% CONTINUE TO REVERBERATE IN U.S. 00:16.333 --> 00:18.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% POLICY AND REGIONAL AND 00:18.200 --> 00:20.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% INTERNATIONAL POLITICS TODAY. 00:20.066 --> 00:21.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% SUZANNE MALONEY, DEPUTY DIRECTOR 00:21.366 --> 00:22.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% OF THE FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM AT 00:22.700 --> 00:24.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION JOINS 00:24.000 --> 00:25.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% US NOW FROM WASHINGTON D.C. 00:25.833 --> 00:27.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ONE OF THE CONCERNS THAT PEOPLE 00:27.366 --> 00:29.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HAVE RIGHT NOW IN MODERN-DAY 00:29.133 --> 00:31.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% RELATIONS BETWEEN AMERICA AND 00:31.366 --> 00:34.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IRAN, ARE WE CLOSER TO WAR NOW 00:34.033 --> 00:35.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THAN WE HAVE BEEN WITH THEM IN 00:35.366 --> 00:37.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THESE 40 YEARS? 00:37.400 --> 00:38.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> I THINK WE'RE IN A MORE 00:38.433 --> 00:40.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% UNPREDICTABLE PERIOD THAN WE 00:40.000 --> 00:41.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HAVE BEEN IN MANY YEARS. 00:41.933 --> 00:43.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THERE HAS BEEN AN ESTRANGEMENT 00:43.300 --> 00:44.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN 00:44.933 --> 00:47.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% SINCE NOVEMBER OF 1979 WHEN 00:47.600 --> 00:49.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IRANIAN STUDENTS OVERTOOK THE 00:49.333 --> 00:51.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMERICAN EMBASSY, AND CREATED A 00:51.333 --> 00:53.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% CRISIS WHICH RESULTED IN A 00:53.266 --> 00:56.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% 444-DAY STANDOFF WHEN AMERICAN 00:56.033 --> 00:58.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DIPLOMATS WERE HELD HOSTAGE. 00:58.266 --> 00:59.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THAT ANIMOSITY HAS WAXED AND 00:59.766 --> 01:01.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WANED OVER THE YEARS. 01:01.666 --> 01:03.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IT APPEARED TO BE IN A PERIOD OF 01:03.933 --> 01:05.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% REAL TRANSFORATION DURING THE 01:05.300 --> 01:07.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, A SENSE 01:07.200 --> 01:09.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THAT THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS 01:09.400 --> 01:10.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AND THE AGREEMENT THAT WAS 01:10.733 --> 01:13.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% PRODUCED IN 2015 MIGHT IN FACT 01:13.333 --> 01:14.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% LEAD TO A NEW OPENING BETWEEN 01:14.700 --> 01:16.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE TWO COUNTRIES. 01:16.300 --> 01:17.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% INSTEAD, WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS 01:17.700 --> 01:19.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AN INCREASE IN TENSIONS AS 01:19.366 --> 01:20.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAS 01:20.600 --> 01:21.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WALKED AWAY FROM THE NUCLEAR 01:21.800 --> 01:22.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DEAL. 01:22.733 --> 01:24.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE AMERICAN POLICY IS REALLY 01:24.466 --> 01:26.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ONE OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE TOWARD 01:26.533 --> 01:28.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TEHRAN WITH NO OBVIOUS END 01:28.666 --> 01:29.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% POINT. 01:29.533 --> 01:31.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AND THE IRANIANS DON'T HAVE A 01:31.066 --> 01:32.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% CLEAR APPROACH TO MANAGING THAT 01:32.833 --> 01:33.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% PRESSURE. 01:33.966 --> 01:35.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> Sreenivasan: I'M LOOKING AT 01:35.133 --> 01:37.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AN OP-ED THAT JOHN BOLTON WROTE 01:37.133 --> 01:38.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% BACK IN 2015 IN THE "NEW YORK 01:38.366 --> 01:40.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TIMES" "TO STOP IRAN'S BOMB, 01:40.333 --> 01:41.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% BOMB IRAN." 01:41.566 --> 01:45.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HOW CONCERNED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT 01:45.266 --> 01:47.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE IDEA THAT THE WAY TO DEAL 01:47.200 --> 01:48.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WITH IRAN MIGHT BE THROUGH 01:48.400 --> 01:49.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% FORCE, BECAUSE THAT'S THE ADVICE 01:49.566 --> 01:50.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE PRESIDENT GETS? 01:50.833 --> 01:52.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> IRONICALLY, ONE OF THE MORE 01:52.133 --> 01:53.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% MODERATING INFLUENCES WITHIN THE 01:53.766 --> 01:55.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% CURRENT ADMINISTRATION IS THE 01:55.100 --> 01:57.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% PRESIDENT HIMSELF, WHO SEEMS 01:57.133 --> 01:59.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DEEPLY AVERSE TO ANY FURTHER 01:59.400 --> 02:00.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMERICAN ENTANGLEMENTS IN 02:00.833 --> 02:02.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% MILITARY CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE 02:02.166 --> 02:03.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% EAST, TO THE POINT THAT HE'S 02:03.700 --> 02:05.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ACTUALLY MOVED TO WITHDRAW 02:05.600 --> 02:08.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMERICAN FORCES FROM SYRIA, AS 02:08.000 --> 02:10.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WELL AS MOST LIKELY AFGHANISTAN, 02:10.400 --> 02:11.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TWO CONFLICTS IN WHICH THE 02:11.600 --> 02:13.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IRANIANS ARE BOTH DEEPLY 02:13.033 --> 02:14.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ENMESHED. 02:14.566 --> 02:15.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IN THAT SENSE, I THINK IT'S 02:15.500 --> 02:16.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HIGHLY UNLIKELY THE PRESIDENT 02:16.933 --> 02:18.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HIMSELF WOULD AUTHORIZE A WAR 02:18.400 --> 02:19.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WITH IRAN. 02:19.566 --> 02:21.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% UNFORTUNATELY, THOUGH, ONE CAN'T 02:21.466 --> 02:22.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% NECESSARILY CONTROL THE 02:22.700 --> 02:24.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% INADVERTENT CONSEQUENCES OF THE 02:24.600 --> 02:26.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% APPROACH THAT HE HAS ENDORSED OF 02:26.766 --> 02:28.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% APPLYING PRESSURE TO IRAN. 02:28.666 --> 02:30.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WHEN THE IRANIANS REACH A 02:30.033 --> 02:31.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% BREAKING POINT, IT'S ENTIRELY 02:31.433 --> 02:32.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL FIND 02:32.833 --> 02:34.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% OURSELVES PULLED INTO A CONFLICT 02:34.400 --> 02:35.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THAT NEITHER SIDE IN FACT 02:35.566 --> 02:36.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DESIRED. 02:36.900 --> 02:37.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> Sreenivasan: HAS IT BEEN 02:37.900 --> 02:39.300 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WORTH IT TO WALK AWAY FROM THE 02:39.300 --> 02:40.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DEAL? 02:40.233 --> 02:42.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IS IRAN CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR 02:42.066 --> 02:43.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WEAPON NOW? 02:43.233 --> 02:44.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HAVE WE CREATED A STRONG 02:44.633 --> 02:45.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ENOUGH DETERRENT WHERE WE CAN 02:45.600 --> 02:46.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WALK AWAY? 02:46.866 --> 02:48.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> I THINK THE DECISION TO WALK 02:48.500 --> 02:49.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AWAY FROM THE DEAL BY THE TRUMP 02:49.800 --> 02:52.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ADMINISTRATION WAS A CRITICAL 02:52.066 --> 02:53.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% MISTAKE. 02:53.233 --> 02:55.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE PRESIDENT, BY SUGGESTING 02:55.133 --> 02:56.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THAT HE MIGHT IN FACT JETTISON 02:56.633 --> 02:58.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE AGREEMENT, HAD AN 02:58.366 --> 02:59.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% OPPORTUNITY TO APPLY SOME OF 02:59.966 --> 03:01.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THAT LEVERAGE TO GET SOME 03:01.766 --> 03:03.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON A RANGE 03:03.400 --> 03:05.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% OF OTHER CONCERNS ABOUT IRANIAN 03:05.066 --> 03:07.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE REGION. 03:07.466 --> 03:09.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% INSTEAD, HE CHOSE TO WALK AWAY 03:09.000 --> 03:10.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% FROM THE DEAL. 03:10.266 --> 03:11.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AND THAT HAS LEFT US IN A WEAKER 03:11.533 --> 03:12.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% POSITION. 03:12.566 --> 03:14.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IT'S CREATED THIS OPPORTUNITY, I 03:14.600 --> 03:17.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THINK, FOR THE IRANIANS TO 03:17.266 --> 03:19.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THEMSELVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND. 03:19.200 --> 03:21.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% REALLY, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS 03:21.033 --> 03:23.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% GOING TO BE DECIDED BY TEHRAN. 03:23.133 --> 03:24.666 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IN MY VIEW, THE MOST LIKELY 03:24.666 --> 03:26.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% OUTCOME FROM AN EXTENDED CRISIS 03:26.966 --> 03:29.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WITH IRAN IS ONE IN WHICH THEY 03:29.166 --> 03:31.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% SEEK TO DISRUPT OIL EXPORTS OR 03:31.433 --> 03:33.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% PRODUCTION COMING FROM SOME OF 03:33.266 --> 03:34.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THEIR NEIGHBORS AROUND THE 03:34.433 --> 03:36.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% REGION, BECAUSE ANYTHING THAT 03:36.200 --> 03:38.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DRIVES UP OIL PRICES WILL HELP 03:38.133 --> 03:39.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THEM IN TERMS OF THEIR OWN 03:39.766 --> 03:41.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% BOTTOM LINE AT A TIME OF SEVERE 03:41.633 --> 03:43.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, AND IT WOULD 03:43.266 --> 03:45.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HURT THE PRESIDENT'S POLITICAL 03:45.000 --> 03:47.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% CAPITAL IN TERMS OF CONTINUING 03:47.233 --> 03:48.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TO APPLY THOSE SANCTIONS. 03:48.933 --> 03:49.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> Sreenivasan: ARE THE 03:49.833 --> 03:51.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ECONOMIC SANCTIONS THAT WE HAVE 03:51.366 --> 03:52.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% PUT ON THEM WORKING? 03:52.733 --> 03:54.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I MEAN, THERE ARE ARTICLES HERE 03:54.966 --> 03:56.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ABOUT IRAN FACING THE WORST 03:56.166 --> 03:58.000 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ECONOMIC CHALLENGE IN 40 YEARS, 03:58.000 --> 03:58.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ACCORDING TO THE PRESIDENT OF 03:58.900 --> 04:00.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE COUNTRY. 04:00.233 --> 04:02.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE REAL HAS DEVALUED BY 70%, 04:02.166 --> 04:04.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% INFLATION THERE IS UP PAST 30%. 04:04.600 --> 04:05.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IS IT WORKING? 04:05.366 --> 04:06.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IS THE PRESSURE WORKING? 04:06.700 --> 04:08.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> THE PRESSURE IS WORKING IF 04:08.033 --> 04:10.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% YOUR METRIC IS SIMPLY ONE OF 04:10.033 --> 04:11.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% ECONOMIC IMPACT. 04:11.166 --> 04:12.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE IRANIANS ARE REALLY FACING 04:12.500 --> 04:14.233 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HARD TIMES AT THE MOMENT, AND IT 04:14.233 --> 04:15.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% COMES AT A TIME OF SOME 04:15.700 --> 04:18.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% POLITICAL CRISIS FOR TEHRAN AS 04:18.766 --> 04:21.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT 04:21.066 --> 04:22.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% BEGINS TO LOOK TOWARD WHAT COMES 04:22.833 --> 04:26.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% NEXT AND PERHAPS WHO COMES NEXT 04:26.033 --> 04:27.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% IN TERMS OF SUCCESSION FOR THE 04:27.433 --> 04:28.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% SUPREME LEADER. 04:28.800 --> 04:30.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE SANCTIONS ARE NOT WORKING IN 04:30.466 --> 04:32.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TERMS OF ACTUALLY CREATING ANY 04:32.933 --> 04:34.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% RESTRAINT ON IRAN'S APPROACH TO 04:34.800 --> 04:35.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THE REGION. 04:35.833 --> 04:37.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AND I THINK THIS IS WHERE THE 04:37.633 --> 04:39.166 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY 04:39.166 --> 04:40.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HAS REALLY FALLEN FLAT. 04:40.933 --> 04:42.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THERE IS NO EVIDENCE, IN FACT, 04:42.533 --> 04:44.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% HISTORICALLY, THAT ECONOMIC 04:44.033 --> 04:46.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% PRESSURE CAUSES IRAN TO RETRENCH 04:46.866 --> 04:48.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% FROM ITS ACTIVITIES AND 04:48.600 --> 04:51.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DESTABILIZING ACTIONS ABROAD. 04:51.100 --> 04:52.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AND, IN FACT, MANY OF ITS 04:52.400 --> 04:54.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% POLICIES ARE FAIRLY LOW COST, 04:54.866 --> 04:56.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT, LOW 04:56.600 --> 04:58.433 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% RISK FOR THE REGIME TO CONTINUE 04:58.433 --> 04:59.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TO UNDERTAKE. 04:59.833 --> 05:01.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% REALLY WHAT WE HAVE DONE IS TO 05:01.900 --> 05:03.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% REMOVE SOME OF OUR ABILITY TO 05:03.733 --> 05:06.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% INFLUENCE IRAN'S DECISIONS 05:06.200 --> 05:08.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AROUND THE REGION, AND 05:08.033 --> 05:09.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% CRITICALLY, ELIMINATE OUR 05:09.633 --> 05:10.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% CAPACITY TO ENGAGE 05:10.833 --> 05:12.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% DIPLOMATICALLY WITH IRANIANS. 05:12.833 --> 05:13.600 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> Sreenivasan: SUZANNE 05:13.600 --> 05:14.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% MALONEY OF THE BROOKINGS 05:14.400 --> 05:15.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% INSTITUTE. 05:15.133 --> 05:15.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. 05:15.966 --> 05:16.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% >> THANK YOU.