>> Sreenivasan: THIS MONTH MARKS

THE 40TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE

IRANIAN REVOLUTION, WHEN

AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI RETURNED FROM

EXILE, TOPPLING THE SHAH OF

IRAN'S REGIME AND CHANGING THE

GOVERNMENT FROM A MONARCHY TO AN

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT EVENT

CONTINUE TO REVERBERATE IN U.S.

POLICY AND REGIONAL AND

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS TODAY.

SUZANNE MALONEY, DEPUTY DIRECTOR

OF THE FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM AT

THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION JOINS

US NOW FROM WASHINGTON D.C.

ONE OF THE CONCERNS THAT PEOPLE

HAVE RIGHT NOW IN MODERN-DAY

RELATIONS BETWEEN AMERICA AND

IRAN, ARE WE CLOSER TO WAR NOW

THAN WE HAVE BEEN WITH THEM IN

THESE 40 YEARS?

>> I THINK WE'RE IN A MORE

UNPREDICTABLE PERIOD THAN WE

HAVE BEEN IN MANY YEARS.

THERE HAS BEEN AN ESTRANGEMENT

BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN

SINCE NOVEMBER OF 1979 WHEN

IRANIAN STUDENTS OVERTOOK THE

AMERICAN EMBASSY, AND CREATED A

CRISIS WHICH RESULTED IN A

444-DAY STANDOFF WHEN AMERICAN

DIPLOMATS WERE HELD HOSTAGE.

THAT ANIMOSITY HAS WAXED AND

WANED OVER THE YEARS.

IT APPEARED TO BE IN A PERIOD OF

REAL TRANSFORATION DURING THE

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, A SENSE

THAT THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

AND THE AGREEMENT THAT WAS

PRODUCED IN 2015 MIGHT IN FACT

LEAD TO A NEW OPENING BETWEEN

THE TWO COUNTRIES.

INSTEAD, WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS

AN INCREASE IN TENSIONS AS

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAS

WALKED AWAY FROM THE NUCLEAR

DEAL.

THE AMERICAN POLICY IS REALLY

ONE OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE TOWARD

TEHRAN WITH NO OBVIOUS END

POINT.

AND THE IRANIANS DON'T HAVE A

CLEAR APPROACH TO MANAGING THAT

PRESSURE.

>> Sreenivasan: I'M LOOKING AT

AN OP-ED THAT JOHN BOLTON WROTE

BACK IN 2015 IN THE "NEW YORK

TIMES" "TO STOP IRAN'S BOMB,

BOMB IRAN."

HOW CONCERNED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT

THE IDEA THAT THE WAY TO DEAL

WITH IRAN MIGHT BE THROUGH

FORCE, BECAUSE THAT'S THE ADVICE

THE PRESIDENT GETS?

>> IRONICALLY, ONE OF THE MORE

MODERATING INFLUENCES WITHIN THE

CURRENT ADMINISTRATION IS THE

PRESIDENT HIMSELF, WHO SEEMS

DEEPLY AVERSE TO ANY FURTHER

AMERICAN ENTANGLEMENTS IN

MILITARY CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE

EAST, TO THE POINT THAT HE'S

ACTUALLY MOVED TO WITHDRAW

AMERICAN FORCES FROM SYRIA, AS

WELL AS MOST LIKELY AFGHANISTAN,

TWO CONFLICTS IN WHICH THE

IRANIANS ARE BOTH DEEPLY

ENMESHED.

IN THAT SENSE, I THINK IT'S

HIGHLY UNLIKELY THE PRESIDENT

HIMSELF WOULD AUTHORIZE A WAR

WITH IRAN.

UNFORTUNATELY, THOUGH, ONE CAN'T

NECESSARILY CONTROL THE

INADVERTENT CONSEQUENCES OF THE

APPROACH THAT HE HAS ENDORSED OF

APPLYING PRESSURE TO IRAN.

WHEN THE IRANIANS REACH A

BREAKING POINT, IT'S ENTIRELY

POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL FIND

OURSELVES PULLED INTO A CONFLICT

THAT NEITHER SIDE IN FACT

DESIRED.

>> Sreenivasan: HAS IT BEEN

WORTH IT TO WALK AWAY FROM THE

DEAL?

IS IRAN CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR

WEAPON NOW?

HAVE WE CREATED A STRONG

ENOUGH DETERRENT WHERE WE CAN

WALK AWAY?

>> I THINK THE DECISION TO WALK

AWAY FROM THE DEAL BY THE TRUMP

ADMINISTRATION WAS A CRITICAL

MISTAKE.

THE PRESIDENT, BY SUGGESTING

THAT HE MIGHT IN FACT JETTISON

THE AGREEMENT, HAD AN

OPPORTUNITY TO APPLY SOME OF

THAT LEVERAGE TO GET SOME

ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON A RANGE

OF OTHER CONCERNS ABOUT IRANIAN

BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE REGION.

INSTEAD, HE CHOSE TO WALK AWAY

FROM THE DEAL.

AND THAT HAS LEFT US IN A WEAKER

POSITION.

IT'S CREATED THIS OPPORTUNITY, I

THINK, FOR THE IRANIANS TO

THEMSELVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

REALLY, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS

GOING TO BE DECIDED BY TEHRAN.

IN MY VIEW, THE MOST LIKELY

OUTCOME FROM AN EXTENDED CRISIS

WITH IRAN IS ONE IN WHICH THEY

SEEK TO DISRUPT OIL EXPORTS OR

PRODUCTION COMING FROM SOME OF

THEIR NEIGHBORS AROUND THE

REGION, BECAUSE ANYTHING THAT

DRIVES UP OIL PRICES WILL HELP

THEM IN TERMS OF THEIR OWN

BOTTOM LINE AT A TIME OF SEVERE

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, AND IT WOULD

HURT THE PRESIDENT'S POLITICAL

CAPITAL IN TERMS OF CONTINUING

TO APPLY THOSE SANCTIONS.

>> Sreenivasan: ARE THE

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS THAT WE HAVE

PUT ON THEM WORKING?

I MEAN, THERE ARE ARTICLES HERE

ABOUT IRAN FACING THE WORST

ECONOMIC CHALLENGE IN 40 YEARS,

ACCORDING TO THE PRESIDENT OF

THE COUNTRY.

THE REAL HAS DEVALUED BY 70%,

INFLATION THERE IS UP PAST 30%.

IS IT WORKING?

IS THE PRESSURE WORKING?

>> THE PRESSURE IS WORKING IF

YOUR METRIC IS SIMPLY ONE OF

ECONOMIC IMPACT.

THE IRANIANS ARE REALLY FACING

HARD TIMES AT THE MOMENT, AND IT

COMES AT A TIME OF SOME

POLITICAL CRISIS FOR TEHRAN AS

THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT

BEGINS TO LOOK TOWARD WHAT COMES

NEXT AND PERHAPS WHO COMES NEXT

IN TERMS OF SUCCESSION FOR THE

SUPREME LEADER.

THE SANCTIONS ARE NOT WORKING IN

TERMS OF ACTUALLY CREATING ANY

RESTRAINT ON IRAN'S APPROACH TO

THE REGION.

AND I THINK THIS IS WHERE THE

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY

HAS REALLY FALLEN FLAT.

THERE IS NO EVIDENCE, IN FACT,

HISTORICALLY, THAT ECONOMIC

PRESSURE CAUSES IRAN TO RETRENCH

FROM ITS ACTIVITIES AND

DESTABILIZING ACTIONS ABROAD.

AND, IN FACT, MANY OF ITS

POLICIES ARE FAIRLY LOW COST,

AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT, LOW

RISK FOR THE REGIME TO CONTINUE

TO UNDERTAKE.

REALLY WHAT WE HAVE DONE IS TO

REMOVE SOME OF OUR ABILITY TO

INFLUENCE IRAN'S DECISIONS

AROUND THE REGION, AND

CRITICALLY, ELIMINATE OUR

CAPACITY TO ENGAGE

DIPLOMATICALLY WITH IRANIANS.

>> Sreenivasan: SUZANNE

MALONEY OF THE BROOKINGS

INSTITUTE.

THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.