>> Sreenivasan: THIS MONTH MARKS
THE 40TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE
IRANIAN REVOLUTION, WHEN
AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI RETURNED FROM
EXILE, TOPPLING THE SHAH OF
IRAN'S REGIME AND CHANGING THE
GOVERNMENT FROM A MONARCHY TO AN
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT EVENT
CONTINUE TO REVERBERATE IN U.S.
POLICY AND REGIONAL AND
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS TODAY.
SUZANNE MALONEY, DEPUTY DIRECTOR
OF THE FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM AT
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION JOINS
US NOW FROM WASHINGTON D.C.
ONE OF THE CONCERNS THAT PEOPLE
HAVE RIGHT NOW IN MODERN-DAY
RELATIONS BETWEEN AMERICA AND
IRAN, ARE WE CLOSER TO WAR NOW
THAN WE HAVE BEEN WITH THEM IN
THESE 40 YEARS?
>> I THINK WE'RE IN A MORE
UNPREDICTABLE PERIOD THAN WE
HAVE BEEN IN MANY YEARS.
THERE HAS BEEN AN ESTRANGEMENT
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN
SINCE NOVEMBER OF 1979 WHEN
IRANIAN STUDENTS OVERTOOK THE
AMERICAN EMBASSY, AND CREATED A
CRISIS WHICH RESULTED IN A
444-DAY STANDOFF WHEN AMERICAN
DIPLOMATS WERE HELD HOSTAGE.
THAT ANIMOSITY HAS WAXED AND
WANED OVER THE YEARS.
IT APPEARED TO BE IN A PERIOD OF
REAL TRANSFORATION DURING THE
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, A SENSE
THAT THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS
AND THE AGREEMENT THAT WAS
PRODUCED IN 2015 MIGHT IN FACT
LEAD TO A NEW OPENING BETWEEN
THE TWO COUNTRIES.
INSTEAD, WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS
AN INCREASE IN TENSIONS AS
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAS
WALKED AWAY FROM THE NUCLEAR
DEAL.
THE AMERICAN POLICY IS REALLY
ONE OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE TOWARD
TEHRAN WITH NO OBVIOUS END
POINT.
AND THE IRANIANS DON'T HAVE A
CLEAR APPROACH TO MANAGING THAT
PRESSURE.
>> Sreenivasan: I'M LOOKING AT
AN OP-ED THAT JOHN BOLTON WROTE
BACK IN 2015 IN THE "NEW YORK
TIMES" "TO STOP IRAN'S BOMB,
BOMB IRAN."
HOW CONCERNED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT
THE IDEA THAT THE WAY TO DEAL
WITH IRAN MIGHT BE THROUGH
FORCE, BECAUSE THAT'S THE ADVICE
THE PRESIDENT GETS?
>> IRONICALLY, ONE OF THE MORE
MODERATING INFLUENCES WITHIN THE
CURRENT ADMINISTRATION IS THE
PRESIDENT HIMSELF, WHO SEEMS
DEEPLY AVERSE TO ANY FURTHER
AMERICAN ENTANGLEMENTS IN
MILITARY CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE
EAST, TO THE POINT THAT HE'S
ACTUALLY MOVED TO WITHDRAW
AMERICAN FORCES FROM SYRIA, AS
WELL AS MOST LIKELY AFGHANISTAN,
TWO CONFLICTS IN WHICH THE
IRANIANS ARE BOTH DEEPLY
ENMESHED.
IN THAT SENSE, I THINK IT'S
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THE PRESIDENT
HIMSELF WOULD AUTHORIZE A WAR
WITH IRAN.
UNFORTUNATELY, THOUGH, ONE CAN'T
NECESSARILY CONTROL THE
INADVERTENT CONSEQUENCES OF THE
APPROACH THAT HE HAS ENDORSED OF
APPLYING PRESSURE TO IRAN.
WHEN THE IRANIANS REACH A
BREAKING POINT, IT'S ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL FIND
OURSELVES PULLED INTO A CONFLICT
THAT NEITHER SIDE IN FACT
DESIRED.
>> Sreenivasan: HAS IT BEEN
WORTH IT TO WALK AWAY FROM THE
DEAL?
IS IRAN CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR
WEAPON NOW?
HAVE WE CREATED A STRONG
ENOUGH DETERRENT WHERE WE CAN
WALK AWAY?
>> I THINK THE DECISION TO WALK
AWAY FROM THE DEAL BY THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION WAS A CRITICAL
MISTAKE.
THE PRESIDENT, BY SUGGESTING
THAT HE MIGHT IN FACT JETTISON
THE AGREEMENT, HAD AN
OPPORTUNITY TO APPLY SOME OF
THAT LEVERAGE TO GET SOME
ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON A RANGE
OF OTHER CONCERNS ABOUT IRANIAN
BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTEAD, HE CHOSE TO WALK AWAY
FROM THE DEAL.
AND THAT HAS LEFT US IN A WEAKER
POSITION.
IT'S CREATED THIS OPPORTUNITY, I
THINK, FOR THE IRANIANS TO
THEMSELVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND.
REALLY, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS
GOING TO BE DECIDED BY TEHRAN.
IN MY VIEW, THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME FROM AN EXTENDED CRISIS
WITH IRAN IS ONE IN WHICH THEY
SEEK TO DISRUPT OIL EXPORTS OR
PRODUCTION COMING FROM SOME OF
THEIR NEIGHBORS AROUND THE
REGION, BECAUSE ANYTHING THAT
DRIVES UP OIL PRICES WILL HELP
THEM IN TERMS OF THEIR OWN
BOTTOM LINE AT A TIME OF SEVERE
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, AND IT WOULD
HURT THE PRESIDENT'S POLITICAL
CAPITAL IN TERMS OF CONTINUING
TO APPLY THOSE SANCTIONS.
>> Sreenivasan: ARE THE
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS THAT WE HAVE
PUT ON THEM WORKING?
I MEAN, THERE ARE ARTICLES HERE
ABOUT IRAN FACING THE WORST
ECONOMIC CHALLENGE IN 40 YEARS,
ACCORDING TO THE PRESIDENT OF
THE COUNTRY.
THE REAL HAS DEVALUED BY 70%,
INFLATION THERE IS UP PAST 30%.
IS IT WORKING?
IS THE PRESSURE WORKING?
>> THE PRESSURE IS WORKING IF
YOUR METRIC IS SIMPLY ONE OF
ECONOMIC IMPACT.
THE IRANIANS ARE REALLY FACING
HARD TIMES AT THE MOMENT, AND IT
COMES AT A TIME OF SOME
POLITICAL CRISIS FOR TEHRAN AS
THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT
BEGINS TO LOOK TOWARD WHAT COMES
NEXT AND PERHAPS WHO COMES NEXT
IN TERMS OF SUCCESSION FOR THE
SUPREME LEADER.
THE SANCTIONS ARE NOT WORKING IN
TERMS OF ACTUALLY CREATING ANY
RESTRAINT ON IRAN'S APPROACH TO
THE REGION.
AND I THINK THIS IS WHERE THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY
HAS REALLY FALLEN FLAT.
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE, IN FACT,
HISTORICALLY, THAT ECONOMIC
PRESSURE CAUSES IRAN TO RETRENCH
FROM ITS ACTIVITIES AND
DESTABILIZING ACTIONS ABROAD.
AND, IN FACT, MANY OF ITS
POLICIES ARE FAIRLY LOW COST,
AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT, LOW
RISK FOR THE REGIME TO CONTINUE
TO UNDERTAKE.
REALLY WHAT WE HAVE DONE IS TO
REMOVE SOME OF OUR ABILITY TO
INFLUENCE IRAN'S DECISIONS
AROUND THE REGION, AND
CRITICALLY, ELIMINATE OUR
CAPACITY TO ENGAGE
DIPLOMATICALLY WITH IRANIANS.
>> Sreenivasan: SUZANNE
MALONEY OF THE BROOKINGS
INSTITUTE.
THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> THANK YOU.