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>> Sreenivasan: THIS MONTH MARKS

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THE 40TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE

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IRANIAN REVOLUTION, WHEN

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AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI RETURNED FROM

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EXILE, TOPPLING THE SHAH OF

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IRAN'S REGIME AND CHANGING THE

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GOVERNMENT FROM A MONARCHY TO AN

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ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

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THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT EVENT

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CONTINUE TO REVERBERATE IN U.S.

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POLICY AND REGIONAL AND

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INTERNATIONAL POLITICS TODAY.

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SUZANNE MALONEY, DEPUTY DIRECTOR

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OF THE FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM AT

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THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION JOINS

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US NOW FROM WASHINGTON D.C.

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ONE OF THE CONCERNS THAT PEOPLE

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HAVE RIGHT NOW IN MODERN-DAY

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RELATIONS BETWEEN AMERICA AND

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IRAN, ARE WE CLOSER TO WAR NOW

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THAN WE HAVE BEEN WITH THEM IN

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THESE 40 YEARS?

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>> I THINK WE'RE IN A MORE

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UNPREDICTABLE PERIOD THAN WE

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HAVE BEEN IN MANY YEARS.

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THERE HAS BEEN AN ESTRANGEMENT

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BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN

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SINCE NOVEMBER OF 1979 WHEN

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IRANIAN STUDENTS OVERTOOK THE

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AMERICAN EMBASSY, AND CREATED A

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CRISIS WHICH RESULTED IN A

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444-DAY STANDOFF WHEN AMERICAN

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DIPLOMATS WERE HELD HOSTAGE.

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THAT ANIMOSITY HAS WAXED AND

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WANED OVER THE YEARS.

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IT APPEARED TO BE IN A PERIOD OF

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REAL TRANSFORATION DURING THE

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OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, A SENSE

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THAT THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

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AND THE AGREEMENT THAT WAS

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PRODUCED IN 2015 MIGHT IN FACT

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LEAD TO A NEW OPENING BETWEEN

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THE TWO COUNTRIES.

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INSTEAD, WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS

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AN INCREASE IN TENSIONS AS

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAS

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WALKED AWAY FROM THE NUCLEAR

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DEAL.

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THE AMERICAN POLICY IS REALLY

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ONE OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE TOWARD

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TEHRAN WITH NO OBVIOUS END

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POINT.

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AND THE IRANIANS DON'T HAVE A

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CLEAR APPROACH TO MANAGING THAT

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PRESSURE.

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>> Sreenivasan: I'M LOOKING AT

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AN OP-ED THAT JOHN BOLTON WROTE

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BACK IN 2015 IN THE "NEW YORK

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TIMES" "TO STOP IRAN'S BOMB,

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BOMB IRAN."

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HOW CONCERNED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT

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THE IDEA THAT THE WAY TO DEAL

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WITH IRAN MIGHT BE THROUGH

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FORCE, BECAUSE THAT'S THE ADVICE

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THE PRESIDENT GETS?

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>> IRONICALLY, ONE OF THE MORE

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MODERATING INFLUENCES WITHIN THE

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CURRENT ADMINISTRATION IS THE

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PRESIDENT HIMSELF, WHO SEEMS

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DEEPLY AVERSE TO ANY FURTHER

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AMERICAN ENTANGLEMENTS IN

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MILITARY CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE

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EAST, TO THE POINT THAT HE'S

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ACTUALLY MOVED TO WITHDRAW

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AMERICAN FORCES FROM SYRIA, AS

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WELL AS MOST LIKELY AFGHANISTAN,

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TWO CONFLICTS IN WHICH THE

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IRANIANS ARE BOTH DEEPLY

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ENMESHED.

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IN THAT SENSE, I THINK IT'S

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HIGHLY UNLIKELY THE PRESIDENT

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HIMSELF WOULD AUTHORIZE A WAR

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WITH IRAN.

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UNFORTUNATELY, THOUGH, ONE CAN'T

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NECESSARILY CONTROL THE

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INADVERTENT CONSEQUENCES OF THE

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APPROACH THAT HE HAS ENDORSED OF

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APPLYING PRESSURE TO IRAN.

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WHEN THE IRANIANS REACH A

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BREAKING POINT, IT'S ENTIRELY

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POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL FIND

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OURSELVES PULLED INTO A CONFLICT

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THAT NEITHER SIDE IN FACT

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DESIRED.

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>> Sreenivasan: HAS IT BEEN

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WORTH IT TO WALK AWAY FROM THE

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DEAL?

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IS IRAN CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR

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WEAPON NOW?

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HAVE WE CREATED A STRONG

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ENOUGH DETERRENT WHERE WE CAN

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WALK AWAY?

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>> I THINK THE DECISION TO WALK

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AWAY FROM THE DEAL BY THE TRUMP

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ADMINISTRATION WAS A CRITICAL

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MISTAKE.

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THE PRESIDENT, BY SUGGESTING

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THAT HE MIGHT IN FACT JETTISON

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THE AGREEMENT, HAD AN

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OPPORTUNITY TO APPLY SOME OF

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THAT LEVERAGE TO GET SOME

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ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON A RANGE

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OF OTHER CONCERNS ABOUT IRANIAN

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BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE REGION.

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INSTEAD, HE CHOSE TO WALK AWAY

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FROM THE DEAL.

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AND THAT HAS LEFT US IN A WEAKER

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POSITION.

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IT'S CREATED THIS OPPORTUNITY, I

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THINK, FOR THE IRANIANS TO

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THEMSELVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

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REALLY, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS

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GOING TO BE DECIDED BY TEHRAN.

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IN MY VIEW, THE MOST LIKELY

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OUTCOME FROM AN EXTENDED CRISIS

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WITH IRAN IS ONE IN WHICH THEY

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SEEK TO DISRUPT OIL EXPORTS OR

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PRODUCTION COMING FROM SOME OF

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THEIR NEIGHBORS AROUND THE

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REGION, BECAUSE ANYTHING THAT

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DRIVES UP OIL PRICES WILL HELP

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THEM IN TERMS OF THEIR OWN

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BOTTOM LINE AT A TIME OF SEVERE

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ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, AND IT WOULD

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HURT THE PRESIDENT'S POLITICAL

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CAPITAL IN TERMS OF CONTINUING

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TO APPLY THOSE SANCTIONS.

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>> Sreenivasan: ARE THE

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ECONOMIC SANCTIONS THAT WE HAVE

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PUT ON THEM WORKING?

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I MEAN, THERE ARE ARTICLES HERE

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ABOUT IRAN FACING THE WORST

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ECONOMIC CHALLENGE IN 40 YEARS,

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ACCORDING TO THE PRESIDENT OF

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THE COUNTRY.

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THE REAL HAS DEVALUED BY 70%,

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INFLATION THERE IS UP PAST 30%.

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IS IT WORKING?

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IS THE PRESSURE WORKING?

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>> THE PRESSURE IS WORKING IF

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YOUR METRIC IS SIMPLY ONE OF

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ECONOMIC IMPACT.

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THE IRANIANS ARE REALLY FACING

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HARD TIMES AT THE MOMENT, AND IT

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COMES AT A TIME OF SOME

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POLITICAL CRISIS FOR TEHRAN AS

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THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT

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BEGINS TO LOOK TOWARD WHAT COMES

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NEXT AND PERHAPS WHO COMES NEXT

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IN TERMS OF SUCCESSION FOR THE

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SUPREME LEADER.

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THE SANCTIONS ARE NOT WORKING IN

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TERMS OF ACTUALLY CREATING ANY

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RESTRAINT ON IRAN'S APPROACH TO

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THE REGION.

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AND I THINK THIS IS WHERE THE

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TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY

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HAS REALLY FALLEN FLAT.

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THERE IS NO EVIDENCE, IN FACT,

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HISTORICALLY, THAT ECONOMIC

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PRESSURE CAUSES IRAN TO RETRENCH

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FROM ITS ACTIVITIES AND

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DESTABILIZING ACTIONS ABROAD.

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AND, IN FACT, MANY OF ITS

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POLICIES ARE FAIRLY LOW COST,

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AND EVEN TO SOME EXTENT, LOW

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RISK FOR THE REGIME TO CONTINUE

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TO UNDERTAKE.

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REALLY WHAT WE HAVE DONE IS TO

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REMOVE SOME OF OUR ABILITY TO

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INFLUENCE IRAN'S DECISIONS

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AROUND THE REGION, AND

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CRITICALLY, ELIMINATE OUR

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CAPACITY TO ENGAGE

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DIPLOMATICALLY WITH IRANIANS.

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>> Sreenivasan: SUZANNE

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MALONEY OF THE BROOKINGS

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INSTITUTE.

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THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

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>> THANK YOU.