WEBVTT 00:02.033 --> 00:05.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: This week marks the last week of primary voting before the midterm elections. 00:05.333 --> 00:10.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% It comes on the heels of former President Obama making his presence felt on the campaign 00:10.800 --> 00:12.333 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% season. 00:12.333 --> 00:14.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Lisa Desjardins is here for this week's Politics Monday. 00:14.100 --> 00:15.133 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% LISA DESJARDINS: That's right. 00:15.133 --> 00:17.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% The early rounds are ending. 00:17.200 --> 00:20.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% It's a good time to get ready for the finals of this key midterm year and, of course, a 00:20.366 --> 00:22.700 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% very good time for Politics Monday. 00:22.700 --> 00:27.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Here to bring us up to speed, Shawna Thomas, D.C. bureau chief of VICE News, and Amy Walter 00:27.000 --> 00:28.900 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% of The Cook Political Report. 00:28.900 --> 00:30.100 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% Thank you. 00:30.100 --> 00:32.033 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% Let's just jump right into where we are. 00:32.033 --> 00:35.433 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% We have New York gubernatorial primary on Tuesday -- on Thursday. 00:35.433 --> 00:40.400 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% We have got tomorrow Delaware and New Hampshire, which is, strangely, the last primary in the 00:41.566 --> 00:43.200 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% nation, I guess they could say now. 00:43.200 --> 00:44.700 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% But let's go big. 00:44.700 --> 00:46.733 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% Why not? 00:46.733 --> 00:50.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Amy, tell us, what are the themes and what are the expected real battle lines for November 00:51.300 --> 00:53.866 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% right now? 00:53.866 --> 00:55.900 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: I think the one theme that has been apparent throughout 00:55.900 --> 00:59.100 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% all these primaries in all different kinds of states and all different kinds of districts 00:59.100 --> 01:04.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% is the number of women who were successful as candidates on the Democratic side. 01:05.466 --> 01:08.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% My colleague looked into all the races for the House. 01:08.233 --> 01:13.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And what he found is, of all the candidates in Democratic primaries -- these are without 01:15.233 --> 01:18.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% incumbents, OK, so open seats -- a woman who was running against at least one other man 01:19.733 --> 01:22.333 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% won 69 percent of the time. 01:22.333 --> 01:26.233 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% So women were winning a disproportionate number on the Democratic side. 01:26.233 --> 01:29.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The number on the Republican side, much, much, much lower. 01:29.066 --> 01:31.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But that is one key variable. 01:31.766 --> 01:35.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And I think that's going to be obviously a very big talking point on election night, 01:35.766 --> 01:40.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% to see if we do hit and exceeded the mark set in 1992, which was the first year of the 01:42.233 --> 01:44.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% woman, when a record number of women were elected to Congress. 01:44.500 --> 01:45.933 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% LISA DESJARDINS: Shawna, what do you see here? 01:45.933 --> 01:47.400 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% What are the two battle lines here? 01:47.400 --> 01:49.133 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% What are the two parties trying to sell? 01:49.133 --> 01:51.233 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And where do they conflict in November? 01:51.233 --> 01:54.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% SHAWNA THOMAS, VICE News: Well, I mean, I think the key battle line and the other big 01:54.133 --> 01:57.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% theme, other than women, and maybe because of women, is President Trump. 01:57.433 --> 01:59.733 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And there's no way to get around that. 01:59.733 --> 02:03.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% As many midterms are -- they usually are about the person who is in the White House. 02:03.466 --> 02:05.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This one is no different. 02:05.566 --> 02:07.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And this one is even more powerfully so about the person in the White House. 02:07.600 --> 02:10.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I think we saw examples of that -- and I'm sure we will get to this -- with President 02:10.400 --> 02:13.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Obama, former President Obama being on the campaign trail... 02:13.600 --> 02:16.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% LISA DESJARDINS: We will, yes. 02:16.200 --> 02:18.433 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% SHAWNA THOMAS: ... in Illinois, railing directly against President Trump, but also in California, 02:18.433 --> 02:23.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% striking a slightly different tone in California, but still making sure people know this is 02:24.866 --> 02:27.100 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% about flipping the House of Representatives for Democrats. 02:27.100 --> 02:30.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And flipping the House of Representatives is a -- in some ways a code of saying a way 02:30.533 --> 02:32.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to put a check on the president. 02:32.500 --> 02:36.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% AMY WALTER: And the other main storyline too for these elections is just the difference 02:38.300 --> 02:40.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% in the maps for the House and for the Senate. 02:40.400 --> 02:45.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The battle for the Senate runs through red, rural states that President Trump is still 02:46.833 --> 02:49.433 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% relatively popular, in some cases, still very popular in. 02:49.433 --> 02:54.233 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% The battle for the House runs through purple, suburban America, where the president is not 02:54.233 --> 02:56.766 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% very popular. 02:56.766 --> 03:00.266 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% So we could have an election night where Democrats actually do very well in the House, but struggle 03:01.066 --> 03:02.266 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% in the Senate. 03:02.266 --> 03:04.733 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% LISA DESJARDINS: Well, it's interesting. 03:04.733 --> 03:07.500 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% So if this in part a test, at least in some places, of President Trump, but we have former 03:07.500 --> 03:11.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% President Obama out there, let's look at -- first of all, let's listen to what he's been saying. 03:11.366 --> 03:12.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% This is from this weekend. 03:12.366 --> 03:14.433 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Let's play the tape. 03:14.433 --> 03:16.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% BARACK OBAMA, Former President of the United States: We have a chance to flip the House 03:16.500 --> 03:18.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% of Representatives and make sure that we are checks and balances in Washington. 03:18.933 --> 03:20.866 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) 03:20.866 --> 03:25.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% BARACK OBAMA: And I cannot tell you, all across the country, you can feel the energy. 03:30.766 --> 03:35.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% You can feel people saying, oh, enough is enough. 03:35.600 --> 03:37.866 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% We're going to kick off our bedroom slippers. 03:37.866 --> 03:39.600 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% We're putting on our marching shoes. 03:39.600 --> 03:41.733 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) 03:41.733 --> 03:44.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% BARACK OBAMA: We're going to out and we're going to start taking some clipboards out. 03:44.733 --> 03:46.233 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) 03:46.233 --> 03:48.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% BARACK OBAMA: And we're going to start knocking on some doors. 03:48.766 --> 03:51.033 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And we're going to start making some calls. 03:51.033 --> 03:53.033 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% We're going to volunteer. 03:53.033 --> 03:56.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% LISA DESJARDINS: Kicking off the bedroom slippers, making some calls, whatever people do. 03:56.933 --> 04:00.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Shawna, my question to you is, what does President Obama do for Democrats? 04:00.833 --> 04:03.333 align:left position:30%,start line:83% size:60% What might he do for Republicans? 04:03.333 --> 04:06.800 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% SHAWNA THOMAS: Well, I mean, just like President Trump, President Obama comes with his flaws 04:07.666 --> 04:09.733 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% and his positives. 04:09.733 --> 04:13.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The positives are, when it's all said and done, the person who is the head of the Democratic 04:13.466 --> 04:16.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Party still, despite the fact that he's not in the White House, is President Obama. 04:16.933 --> 04:20.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Nobody who I ever talk to has had a better answer for the question of who is the head 04:20.733 --> 04:22.900 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% of the party. 04:22.900 --> 04:25.600 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% One of the things our correspondent on VICE News Tonight saw when he was out there in 04:25.600 --> 04:30.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% California was that people were driving miles and miles and hours and hours to be part of 04:30.433 --> 04:31.600 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% this event. 04:31.600 --> 04:33.566 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And those were hard-core Democrats. 04:33.566 --> 04:36.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% That wasn't necessarily independents and other people, hard-core Democrats. 04:36.133 --> 04:38.200 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But they're coming to see him. 04:38.200 --> 04:42.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% He is able to get that kind of rally and energy that President Trump to a certain extent can 04:42.133 --> 04:43.733 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% get on the other side. 04:43.733 --> 04:45.433 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% So that's a positive. 04:45.433 --> 04:47.966 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% Great. 04:47.966 --> 04:51.433 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% The other thing is, in some ways, he is also the example of what people were rallying against 04:52.566 --> 04:54.566 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% when they voted for President Trump. 04:54.566 --> 04:57.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And so they will -- and so, there, Republicans who will say, look, they're going back to 04:57.600 --> 04:59.133 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% Barack Obama. 04:59.133 --> 05:01.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% That is somebody you didn't like when he was in the White House. 05:01.033 --> 05:02.866 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% That is still the head of their party. 05:02.866 --> 05:05.633 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% Come out and vote for -- vote for the people who support President Trump. 05:05.633 --> 05:08.600 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% LISA DESJARDINS: Amy, is President Obama the head of the Democratic Party? 05:08.600 --> 05:12.333 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% AMY WALTER: Yes, though I probably -- you probably remember this. 05:12.333 --> 05:16.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I remember those speeches that he made saying those exact same things. 05:16.500 --> 05:18.000 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% You guys need to come out and vote. 05:18.000 --> 05:20.700 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% You need to do this for my legacy. 05:20.700 --> 05:23.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Whatever you do -- apathy is our biggest problem. 05:23.266 --> 05:24.866 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% He said that in 2010. 05:24.866 --> 05:26.066 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% He said that in 2014. 05:26.066 --> 05:27.566 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% He said that in 2016. 05:27.566 --> 05:28.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Those voters still didn't turn out for Democrats. 05:28.800 --> 05:31.566 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% They turned out for him, but never his party. 05:31.566 --> 05:36.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I still believe that the biggest motivator for Democrats is Donald Trump, and he's still 05:37.733 --> 05:40.100 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% the biggest -- he's the 800-pound gorilla. 05:40.100 --> 05:42.633 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% He is the biggest factor in 2018. 05:42.633 --> 05:47.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I do think, yes, Republicans are going to try to use Obama, but mostly use Nancy Pelosi 05:50.100 --> 05:55.100 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% as the boogey-person, right, to say, if you elect Democrats, they're just going to follow 05:56.566 --> 05:58.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the same liberal marching orders from their leaders. 05:58.933 --> 06:03.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But I think the bigger risk right now for Republicans is that Trump is taking all the 06:03.200 --> 06:08.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% oxygen and all of the focus that they would rather be spending, talking about the economy, 06:10.033 --> 06:13.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% deregulation and anything else that they're doing in Washington. 06:13.000 --> 06:16.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They don't want Donald Trump to be making it all about him. 06:16.533 --> 06:19.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% LISA DESJARDINS: Quickly, I want to talk about the U.S. Senate and something that might be 06:19.766 --> 06:22.033 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% going on in Texas, home state of yours, Shawna. 06:22.033 --> 06:23.966 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% SHAWNA THOMAS: Yes. 06:23.966 --> 06:26.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% LISA DESJARDINS: I want to show some video of Beto O'Rourke, the El Paso congressman. 06:26.500 --> 06:28.100 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% He's lighting a fire for many progressive. 06:28.100 --> 06:31.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% He's doing things like skateboarding in parking lots. 06:31.300 --> 06:33.366 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% This is unconventional. 06:33.366 --> 06:37.133 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% This is something that the liberal left is loving, something that some people think might 06:37.133 --> 06:38.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% be a problem for Ted Cruz. 06:38.566 --> 06:41.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There's a Marist poll showing he's within four points. 06:41.833 --> 06:43.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% What's going on in Texas? 06:43.800 --> 06:46.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Does this man actually have a chance of becoming a Democratic senator from Texas? 06:46.300 --> 06:51.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% SHAWNA THOMAS: Well, I have to admit I saw the Marist poll and also was like, oh, OK, 06:51.833 --> 06:52.833 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% OK. 06:52.833 --> 06:53.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So maybe he has a chance. 06:53.933 --> 06:56.733 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% There is a possibility of a chance. 06:56.733 --> 07:01.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% In our reporting VICE News has done when it comes to Beto, he has gone to a lot of parts 07:03.166 --> 07:05.266 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of the state that usually Democrats have ignored. 07:05.266 --> 07:09.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% He has made it his duty to go to every single county, with the idea of, like, if you know 07:09.233 --> 07:14.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% you can win Houston, Dallas, Austin, major cities, if you can pick up an extra 1,000 07:16.166 --> 07:19.100 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% votes here way out west, if you can pick up 1,000 votes somewhere else, perhaps this is 07:19.100 --> 07:22.566 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% something that is actually possible. 07:22.566 --> 07:26.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I'm still saying perhaps because I still think Texas is still a solidly red state. 07:26.766 --> 07:27.766 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% But... 07:27.766 --> 07:28.766 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% LISA DESJARDINS: OK. 07:28.766 --> 07:30.266 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% OK. 07:30.266 --> 07:32.400 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% AMY WALTER: I think the bigger challenge for - - that's right. 07:32.400 --> 07:34.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I think the bigger challenge right now for Republicans in holding a seat is Tennessee, 07:34.400 --> 07:38.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% a deep red state where the candidate on the Democratic side is actually a little bit ahead 07:38.433 --> 07:39.866 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% of the Republican. 07:39.866 --> 07:41.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% LISA DESJARDINS: But the Senate is getting interesting. 07:41.000 --> 07:42.700 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% Thank you, Amy Walter, Shawna Thomas. 07:42.700 --> 07:43.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Wonderful having you here for Politics Monday. 07:43.933 --> 07:44.066 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% AMY WALTER: Of course.