1 00:00:01,466 --> 00:00:03,500 JUDY WOODRUFF: And now to the analysis of Shields and Brooks. 2 00:00:03,500 --> 00:00:06,900 That is syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks. 3 00:00:06,900 --> 00:00:08,966 Gentlemen, welcome. 4 00:00:08,966 --> 00:00:13,333 Big news, the equivalent of an earthquake, I guess, in Washington, political earthquake. 5 00:00:13,333 --> 00:00:17,600 Mark, what does it mean that Anthony Kennedy is stepping down from the Supreme Court? 6 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:19,466 What does it mean for the court? 7 00:00:19,466 --> 00:00:21,633 What does it mean for the city, for the country? 8 00:00:21,633 --> 00:00:23,066 MARK SHIELDS: It's significant. 9 00:00:23,066 --> 00:00:25,166 (LAUGHTER) 10 00:00:25,166 --> 00:00:29,066 MARK SHIELDS: No, let me just say, God likes Donald Trump, because she has now given him 11 00:00:31,566 --> 00:00:35,133 a second appointee to the Supreme Court, something that Barack Obama, in eight years, got two. 12 00:00:36,300 --> 00:00:37,566 Bill Clinton in eight years got two. 13 00:00:37,566 --> 00:00:39,600 George W. Bush in eight years got two. 14 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,466 He's getting two in 18 months. 15 00:00:42,466 --> 00:00:47,433 Anthony Kennedy is getting encomiums of praise, in large part, Judy, two sources. 16 00:00:49,266 --> 00:00:50,666 One, he was a gentleman. 17 00:00:50,666 --> 00:00:52,400 He was considerate to those around him. 18 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:57,166 He didn't -- there was no personalizing or polarizing to him. 19 00:00:57,166 --> 00:01:00,000 And that is welcome and refreshing in this Washington. 20 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,966 But the second thing is, he was a liberal on individual rights and sort of social issues. 21 00:01:07,666 --> 00:01:09,800 He wasn't on economic issues. 22 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,933 He always came down on the side of corporations against consumers and the side of the employer 23 00:01:15,066 --> 00:01:17,166 against -- the boss. 24 00:01:17,166 --> 00:01:21,066 And he wrote probably the worst opinion, in my judgment, in the history of American politics, 25 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:28,200 the campaign -- permitting corporations to make unlimited campaign contributions, and 26 00:01:30,733 --> 00:01:35,066 allowing the gushing of water -- of money into campaigns. 27 00:01:35,066 --> 00:01:40,066 But he will -- he has been a key vote on capital punishment, on a whole host of issues, including 28 00:01:45,700 --> 00:01:50,666 gay marriage and ratifying Roe v. Wade. 29 00:01:52,700 --> 00:01:56,066 So, in that sense, the nominee will be to the right of him, and it will perhaps energize 30 00:02:00,333 --> 00:02:01,966 Republicans who were not energized about 2018. 31 00:02:01,966 --> 00:02:03,966 JUDY WOODRUFF: How do you see his legacy first? 32 00:02:03,966 --> 00:02:07,166 DAVID BROOKS: Well, first, it struck me that a lot of my progressive friends are reacting 33 00:02:07,166 --> 00:02:12,166 like losing Kennedy is like losing, I don't know, Franklin Roosevelt. 34 00:02:14,666 --> 00:02:16,733 Like, suddenly, they're all on his side, which is odd to me, because, in most of his decisions, 35 00:02:16,733 --> 00:02:20,600 Citizens United and Bush v. Gore, he voted very solidly with the conservatives. 36 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,366 But it shows the prominence of two issues for progressives, which is abortion and gay 37 00:02:24,366 --> 00:02:28,933 marriage, and it shows how the social issues really are what motivate people these days. 38 00:02:28,933 --> 00:02:33,533 I would say I would characterize him as a pragmatic libertarian, tended to emphasize 39 00:02:33,533 --> 00:02:36,066 individual rights and freedoms. 40 00:02:36,066 --> 00:02:39,266 And so sometimes that went a little -- a lot of time, it went a little right. 41 00:02:39,266 --> 00:02:41,266 Sometimes, it went a little left. 42 00:02:41,266 --> 00:02:44,200 But it tended to be an individualistic mind-set, which had some good virtues. 43 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:48,666 I thought it -- in general, it weakened any sense of community, any of sense of, we have 44 00:02:48,666 --> 00:02:52,400 a shared nation, because his world view was so individualistic. 45 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:57,366 Nonetheless, he was just a very cordial man, a very good man to be around in Washington, 46 00:02:57,366 --> 00:03:00,100 an exemplar of an old style public servant. 47 00:03:00,100 --> 00:03:01,766 As for the politics, I agree with Mark. 48 00:03:01,766 --> 00:03:03,433 It's just a total gift for Republicans. 49 00:03:03,433 --> 00:03:05,066 It will unify the right. 50 00:03:05,066 --> 00:03:07,166 It will energize the right. 51 00:03:07,166 --> 00:03:11,200 It will energize the left, too, but more -- in the coming campaign, it puts pressure on the 52 00:03:13,333 --> 00:03:15,300 people in the middle. 53 00:03:15,300 --> 00:03:17,933 And so Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins on the Republican side, it puts some pressure 54 00:03:17,933 --> 00:03:20,500 on them, but I don't think a whole lot. 55 00:03:20,500 --> 00:03:21,633 They voted for Gorsuch. 56 00:03:21,633 --> 00:03:24,066 MARK SHIELDS: Gorsuch, that's right. 57 00:03:24,066 --> 00:03:25,900 DAVID BROOKS: But it puts a bunch of pressure on the centrist Democrats who are running 58 00:03:25,900 --> 00:03:27,833 in the red states. 59 00:03:27,833 --> 00:03:30,300 And I think puts more pressure on the Democrats than it does on the Republicans. 60 00:03:30,300 --> 00:03:31,533 (CROSSTALK) 61 00:03:31,533 --> 00:03:33,666 MARK SHIELDS: Yes, I agree with David. 62 00:03:33,666 --> 00:03:37,366 Joe Manchin in West Virginia, who I think has to be favored for reelection, as a Democrat 63 00:03:37,366 --> 00:03:42,066 in a state, Donald Trump's best state, he won by 42 percent, that is going to be a difficult 64 00:03:42,066 --> 00:03:47,066 vote for him, especially if Mitch McConnell, in all likelihood, holds the vote around Halloween 65 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,766 to keep attention riveted on the issue. 66 00:03:51,766 --> 00:03:56,766 Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, a state that Donald Trump carried by 36 percent, Democratic 67 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:58,933 incumbent. 68 00:03:58,933 --> 00:04:02,766 Joe Donnelly in Indiana that he carried by 17 percent. 69 00:04:04,733 --> 00:04:07,533 And Claire McCaskill in Missouri that Donald Trump carried by 19 percent. 70 00:04:07,533 --> 00:04:11,166 It's going to be a lot of political pressure for them. 71 00:04:11,166 --> 00:04:16,166 Judy, the key to me is, this is a bigger issue, the Supreme Court has been, for conservatives 72 00:04:17,933 --> 00:04:20,733 and Republicans than it has been historically for Democrats. 73 00:04:20,733 --> 00:04:25,733 For example, in the exit polls in 2016, the Clinton-Trump race, 26 percent of the Republican 74 00:04:27,700 --> 00:04:32,366 voters said the Supreme Court and who sat on it was an urgent vote matter to them, to 75 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:35,733 the point that it affected and influenced their votes. 76 00:04:35,733 --> 00:04:39,966 Only 18 percent of Democrats said it was for them. 77 00:04:39,966 --> 00:04:44,966 So, it's a built-in emotional advantage at a time when Republican enthusiasm and interest 78 00:04:46,900 --> 00:04:50,166 in the 2018 campaign has been sapping and had been draining. 79 00:04:50,166 --> 00:04:53,633 DAVID BROOKS: That may -- I wonder if that will change now because this pick obviously 80 00:04:53,633 --> 00:04:56,866 puts Roe v. Wade right at the center of our politics. 81 00:04:56,866 --> 00:04:59,833 And it will actually open up something very interesting. 82 00:04:59,833 --> 00:05:03,066 I don't think it's -- the nightmare scenario on either side, I don't think it's probably 83 00:05:03,066 --> 00:05:04,066 going to happen. 84 00:05:04,066 --> 00:05:05,066 MARK SHIELDS: Which is? 85 00:05:05,066 --> 00:05:07,100 What is... 86 00:05:07,100 --> 00:05:07,900 DAVID BROOKS: Which is that that Roe v. Wade will suddenly be overturned. 87 00:05:07,900 --> 00:05:10,033 JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes. 88 00:05:10,033 --> 00:05:13,700 DAVID BROOKS: Because there is a precedent which Secretary -- Justice Roberts has maintained 89 00:05:15,633 --> 00:05:18,866 through most of the terms -- and the Obamacare case is a good example -- of saying, I may 90 00:05:18,866 --> 00:05:21,633 agree, I may not agree, but what is settled law is settled law. 91 00:05:21,633 --> 00:05:24,233 He has tended to be biased in that direction. 92 00:05:24,233 --> 00:05:27,733 And as we go through the hearings, whoever the nominee is, that's what they are going 93 00:05:27,733 --> 00:05:29,766 to say. 94 00:05:29,766 --> 00:05:32,933 And so they may disagree in principle on Roe v. Wade, but it is -- it's reasonably settled, 95 00:05:32,933 --> 00:05:34,900 so they may hedge it or something. 96 00:05:34,900 --> 00:05:38,333 But it -- I'm not sure we're looking at some massive overturn of Roe v. Wade either way. 97 00:05:38,333 --> 00:05:41,566 JUDY WOODRUFF: But neither one of you sees any hindrance, anything standing in front 98 00:05:41,566 --> 00:05:43,833 of the president getting his choice for the court? 99 00:05:43,833 --> 00:05:46,733 MARK SHIELDS: Sure, the choice himself. 100 00:05:46,733 --> 00:05:51,666 We have had nominees rejected before because of something that was discovered or and their 101 00:05:51,666 --> 00:05:53,666 position. 102 00:05:53,666 --> 00:05:57,666 I would just take one exception to David, and that is, over the last generation, Gallup 103 00:05:57,666 --> 00:05:59,733 has polled every single year. 104 00:05:59,733 --> 00:06:04,733 Americans have more -- far more tolerant and far less censorious about having a child out 105 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,400 of wedlock, or gay rights, or extramarital relations. 106 00:06:13,966 --> 00:06:18,966 But moral acceptability of abortion remains divided exactly where it was 25 years ago. 107 00:06:20,933 --> 00:06:25,833 So it is an organizing and galvanizing issue still to this day, even though I think David's 108 00:06:27,766 --> 00:06:32,300 right that the status quo or precedent works to the advantage of those who would preserve 109 00:06:34,033 --> 00:06:36,066 it. 110 00:06:36,066 --> 00:06:38,000 But how about it if it becomes the central issue in the campaign of 2018? 111 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,366 Does that help the Democrats or not? 112 00:06:41,366 --> 00:06:44,833 Does it turn out Republicans who might not have -- who might have sat home? 113 00:06:44,833 --> 00:06:49,833 JUDY WOODRUFF: And speaking of that, the Kennedy announcement, David, came the day after progressive 114 00:06:51,766 --> 00:06:53,833 Democrats did surprisingly well in a number of the primaries this week. 115 00:06:53,833 --> 00:06:58,700 And you had this unusual -- shocking result in New York, where Joseph Crowley, who was 116 00:07:02,366 --> 00:07:06,200 somebody who was a part of the Democratic establishment in the House of Representatives 117 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:11,200 and leadership, was beaten by a 28-year-old young woman who is seen as a self-described 118 00:07:14,100 --> 00:07:16,166 socialist Democrat. 119 00:07:16,166 --> 00:07:20,466 What's going on with the Democrats, and how do you -- now that we have got the Supreme 120 00:07:20,466 --> 00:07:24,366 Court move, how do you see that playing on top of what's happened? 121 00:07:24,366 --> 00:07:26,033 DAVID BROOKS: Yes. 122 00:07:26,033 --> 00:07:27,866 The core question to me is whether this is David Brat all over again. 123 00:07:27,866 --> 00:07:30,033 And David Brat is the guy in Virginia who beat Eric Cantor. 124 00:07:30,033 --> 00:07:32,366 And that was a precursor to the Trump phenomenon. 125 00:07:32,366 --> 00:07:36,733 It was a sign that anger at establishment Republicans was so high that the party was 126 00:07:36,733 --> 00:07:39,666 about to undergo some fundamental earthquake. 127 00:07:39,666 --> 00:07:42,766 And that could be true. 128 00:07:42,766 --> 00:07:47,633 But the Crowley loss, to me, was just one data point among a lot of data points. 129 00:07:47,633 --> 00:07:51,833 And there have been some of these races where the Sanders candidate has won, but there's 130 00:07:51,833 --> 00:07:55,233 been a lot where the mainstream Democratic candidate has won. 131 00:07:55,233 --> 00:08:00,266 And I so think the balance of the evidence so far is that Democratic voters around the 132 00:08:02,900 --> 00:08:05,566 country are not upset with Democratic establishment the way Republican voters were with the Republican. 133 00:08:06,433 --> 00:08:08,466 So I do not see a Sanders wave. 134 00:08:08,466 --> 00:08:12,533 I see these one-off cases where you -- this was a very distinct district with a very, 135 00:08:12,533 --> 00:08:14,533 very talented candidate. 136 00:08:14,533 --> 00:08:18,600 And so she pulled off this amazing victory, but I don't see yet it as a part of a national 137 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:19,833 trend. 138 00:08:19,833 --> 00:08:21,366 JUDY WOODRUFF: How do you see it, Mark? 139 00:08:21,366 --> 00:08:22,666 MARK SHIELDS: I don't see it as part of a national trend. 140 00:08:22,666 --> 00:08:25,166 Joe Crowley was an exceptionally popular Democrat. 141 00:08:25,166 --> 00:08:29,833 He didn't fit the pattern of somebody who had grown remote from his district. 142 00:08:29,833 --> 00:08:34,833 He was the Queens Democratic boss, a position he had inherited from his predecessor. 143 00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:40,900 But the axiom -- maxim that all politics is local, which has seemed to be repealed by 144 00:08:42,333 --> 00:08:44,900 all politics being national, reasserted itself. 145 00:08:44,900 --> 00:08:49,733 I mean, this is a district, Judy, that has changed, demographically, dramatically. 146 00:08:49,733 --> 00:08:54,733 I mean, it's now a distinctly plurality of Hispanic voters, minority voters, and it's 147 00:08:57,266 --> 00:08:58,766 down to fewer than out of one out of five. 148 00:08:58,766 --> 00:09:01,333 So, it is the House of Representatives. 149 00:09:01,333 --> 00:09:03,866 And I will say one thing about Joe Crowley. 150 00:09:03,866 --> 00:09:08,233 His concession was as gracious, compared to Donald Trump's continuing to savage Mark Sanford 151 00:09:09,333 --> 00:09:11,833 and gratuitously attacking Joe Crowley. 152 00:09:11,833 --> 00:09:13,700 It was -- he sang "Born to Run," Bruce Springsteen, song. 153 00:09:13,700 --> 00:09:16,500 JUDY WOODRUFF: Sang a song dedicated to her. 154 00:09:16,500 --> 00:09:18,366 MARK SHIELDS: And dedicated to her, to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. 155 00:09:18,366 --> 00:09:20,433 JUDY WOODRUFF: So, you see it as a one-off? 156 00:09:20,433 --> 00:09:24,400 MARK SHIELDS: Well, I mean, it's the first time a Democrat incumbent has lost in three 157 00:09:25,033 --> 00:09:26,033 elections. 158 00:09:26,033 --> 00:09:28,100 David described Cantor. 159 00:09:28,100 --> 00:09:32,033 There had been a lot of Senate upsets where the right and the liberty group and the Tea 160 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,166 Party had asserted itself before that. 161 00:09:35,166 --> 00:09:38,166 DAVID BROOKS: There was -- also, it came at a time when the border issue is such a vital 162 00:09:38,166 --> 00:09:41,733 issue, which aroused a lot of people's sense of, we have got to have our people in there. 163 00:09:41,733 --> 00:09:43,800 MARK SHIELDS: Yes. 164 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:45,833 DAVID BROOKS: And so -- but, nonetheless, it still has to be said that voters are upset 165 00:09:45,833 --> 00:09:46,833 with establishments. 166 00:09:46,833 --> 00:09:49,333 MARK SHIELDS: Yes. 167 00:09:49,333 --> 00:09:50,833 DAVID BROOKS: And it's not unprecedented -- unlikely that we're going to get more of these. 168 00:09:50,833 --> 00:09:52,733 JUDY WOODRUFF: So, quickly, you mentioned the border. 169 00:09:52,733 --> 00:09:55,233 Where does the administration stand right now on immigration? 170 00:09:55,233 --> 00:10:00,233 I talked to Marc Short, the White House legislative affairs director, a few minutes ago. 171 00:10:01,100 --> 00:10:03,166 Mark, what do we see here? 172 00:10:03,166 --> 00:10:06,566 You still have families being separated when they come across the border. 173 00:10:06,566 --> 00:10:08,500 MARK SHIELDS: You do, Judy. 174 00:10:08,500 --> 00:10:12,166 And you have got competing jurisdictions here of agencies, Health and Human Services. 175 00:10:12,166 --> 00:10:13,433 You have got the Department of Justice. 176 00:10:13,433 --> 00:10:14,633 You have got Homeland Security. 177 00:10:14,633 --> 00:10:16,033 You have got the Border Patrol. 178 00:10:16,033 --> 00:10:18,333 You have got all of these issues. 179 00:10:18,333 --> 00:10:22,233 I think the time has come, if the president is serious about it, if the country is serious 180 00:10:22,233 --> 00:10:24,800 about it, to appoint a czar. 181 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:29,800 Give somebody super powers, whether that person be Colin Powell or General Anthony Zinni, 182 00:10:31,733 --> 00:10:36,200 the former four-star Marine CENTCOM commander, or Martin Dempsey, the former chairman of 183 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,366 the Joint Chiefs, or Mike Mullen. 184 00:10:38,366 --> 00:10:42,166 I don't -- but somebody who is going to be the face, the voice to whom all the others 185 00:10:42,166 --> 00:10:43,633 are accountable, because, right now... 186 00:10:43,633 --> 00:10:44,633 JUDY WOODRUFF: On immigration? 187 00:10:44,633 --> 00:10:45,900 (CROSSTALK) 188 00:10:45,900 --> 00:10:48,000 JUDY WOODRUFF: ... southern border? 189 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:49,333 MARK SHIELDS: On the border, on the family separation in particular at the border, because 190 00:10:49,333 --> 00:10:51,400 you can't get answers now. 191 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:55,100 DAVID BROOKS: I don't like any sentence that includes both Trump and czar at the same time. 192 00:10:55,100 --> 00:10:56,100 That scares me. 193 00:10:56,100 --> 00:10:57,100 MARK SHIELDS: OK. 194 00:10:57,100 --> 00:10:58,100 That's OK. 195 00:10:58,100 --> 00:11:00,266 (LAUGHTER) 196 00:11:00,266 --> 00:11:01,733 DAVID BROOKS: The problem is not -- well, there's the management problem. 197 00:11:01,733 --> 00:11:03,766 And maybe some sort of administrator would help. 198 00:11:03,766 --> 00:11:05,800 But the core problem is the Trump administration, at least large parts of it, wants to send 199 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,733 an intimidating message down to people south of the border: Don't try to come up here. 200 00:11:09,733 --> 00:11:11,800 It will be miserable for you. 201 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,400 And then -- but they don't want to face the total political backlash of having a completely 202 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:15,666 cruel policy. 203 00:11:15,666 --> 00:11:17,600 So they're stuck in the horns of that dilemma. 204 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,633 At the same time, they're stuck in a bit of a legislative logjam. 205 00:11:20,633 --> 00:11:24,700 So I think the lesson should be that we're not going to be monsters at the border. 206 00:11:24,700 --> 00:11:27,766 We're going to enforce the law, but we're not be total monsters. 207 00:11:27,766 --> 00:11:30,900 But that goes against the policy that Jeff Sessions wants to support. 208 00:11:30,900 --> 00:11:33,966 JUDY WOODRUFF: But just in a few seconds, is it doing political damage to the administration? 209 00:11:33,966 --> 00:11:37,333 DAVID BROOKS: Well, Mark and I had a little discussion last week whether it would hurt 210 00:11:37,333 --> 00:11:40,633 Trump's approval rating. 211 00:11:40,633 --> 00:11:44,866 And I hate to say it, but I was right, in that it has not hurt his approval rating. 212 00:11:44,866 --> 00:11:47,400 MARK SHIELDS: Well, no, his Gallup dropped precipitously. 213 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,400 DAVID BROOKS: I just looked at the numbers. 214 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,166 So, we will come back next week. 215 00:11:52,166 --> 00:11:53,166 JUDY WOODRUFF: We will come back next Friday. 216 00:11:53,166 --> 00:11:54,433 (CROSSTALK) 217 00:11:54,433 --> 00:11:55,400 MARK SHIELDS: You pick your own numbers, David. 218 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:56,633 That's what you're going to do. 219 00:11:56,633 --> 00:11:57,400 DAVID BROOKS: The Trump poll had him just... 220 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:58,700 (CROSSTALK) 221 00:11:58,700 --> 00:11:59,400 MARK SHIELDS: How much is 11 and 7? 222 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:00,433 Is it 17? 223 00:12:00,433 --> 00:12:01,666 (LAUGHTER) 224 00:12:01,666 --> 00:12:02,600 JUDY WOODRUFF: Hang around after the show. 225 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:03,366 It gets even more exciting. 226 00:12:03,366 --> 00:12:04,833 (LAUGHTER) 227 00:12:04,833 --> 00:12:04,966 JUDY WOODRUFF: Mark Shields, David Brooks, thank you.