WEBVTT

00:02.100 --> 00:05.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
JUDY WOODRUFF: As we prepare
for elections next week, we
want to step back and take a

00:07.166 --> 00:10.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
close look at what Russian
officials did to try to
sway the vote in 2016.

00:12.300 --> 00:16.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
That's the focus of a new
book, "Cyberwar," by Kathleen
Hall Jamieson, a noted scholar

00:16.933 --> 00:19.033 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
of American politics.

00:19.033 --> 00:23.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
We began with a key question:
Did Russia turn the outcome
of the last presidential race?

00:23.233 --> 00:25.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON,
Author, "Cyberwar: How Russian
Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect

00:25.766 --> 00:28.233 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80%
a President": I believe
it's highly probable that
they did, not certain,
but highly probable.

00:28.233 --> 00:30.233 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
JUDY WOODRUFF: And
what do you base it on?

00:30.233 --> 00:32.266 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON:
Three arguments.

00:32.266 --> 00:36.533 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70%
First, the social media
intervention, which
is the Russian trolls
marauding around in

00:36.533 --> 00:41.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
cyberspace, pretending they're
U.S. citizens, had a message
aligned with candidate Trump's.

00:43.433 --> 00:47.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
They had identified the right
voters they needed to mobilize,
demobilize and shift in

00:47.800 --> 00:49.866 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
order to help elect him.

00:49.866 --> 00:53.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
They had messages that had
a lot of viral exposure, so
they reached a lot of people.

00:53.666 --> 00:57.866 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
But we're not completely sure,
although they did have the
entire Democratic playbook, and

00:57.866 --> 01:01.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
so they had the means, whether
they actually reached the
right voters in the three key

01:01.833 --> 01:02.833 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50%
states.

01:02.833 --> 01:04.766 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
The case is tentative.

01:04.766 --> 01:08.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
JUDY WOODRUFF: You make a point
of saying that they zeroed
in on the vulnerabilities

01:10.333 --> 01:14.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
in our system, the voters
who could make a difference.

01:14.233 --> 01:19.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
For example, you write about
the voters who could be
persuaded to go with Jill Stein,

01:19.233 --> 01:21.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
the Green Party candidate,
African-American voters.

01:21.800 --> 01:24.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
You are giving the Russians
a lot of credit, aren't you?

01:24.533 --> 01:28.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: One
doesn't have to be really smart,
if one is a Russian who can

01:28.733 --> 01:33.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
read English and one follows the
U.S. media, to see the playbook
for a campaign consultant

01:34.600 --> 01:36.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80%
inside our news structures.

01:36.700 --> 01:41.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
I quoted in the book extended
passages in U.S. mainstream
media explaining which states

01:43.300 --> 01:46.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
Donald Trump needs to win,
Hillary Clinton needs to win,
what kinds of voters they need

01:46.166 --> 01:48.600 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
to approach, where
each is falling short.

01:48.600 --> 01:52.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And there are even stories
to tell you what the best
way would be to reach them.

01:52.600 --> 01:57.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And they not only had that
information, but they also had
the complete playbook from the

01:57.233 --> 02:01.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
Clinton campaign,
including the voter turnout
models in key states.

02:01.966 --> 02:03.900 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
And then they had
one more advantage.

02:03.900 --> 02:07.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
Our social media platforms
are designed to sell
us to advertisers.

02:07.966 --> 02:12.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And as a result, they have
built into them the very means
of reaching the target voter.

02:15.000 --> 02:17.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And unlike the past, when you
had to be really sophisticated
as a time-buyer, you can now

02:17.366 --> 02:20.433 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70%
use those as a layperson
to reach the right
people efficiently.

02:20.433 --> 02:22.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
JUDY WOODRUFF: And I want to ask
you some more about the media.

02:22.933 --> 02:25.333 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
But, first, I want to ask
you about the language.

02:25.333 --> 02:30.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
I mean, you talk about trolls,
you talk about operatives, but
you call them Russian discourse

02:30.933 --> 02:33.366 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60%
saboteurs.

02:33.366 --> 02:35.800 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80%
KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON:
My theory of how the
election outcome was changed
is that the discourse

02:35.800 --> 02:37.800 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
climate was changed.

02:37.800 --> 02:42.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
So, we know from our past
research that, when you change
the balance of the messages, so

02:44.100 --> 02:47.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
you have more negative messages
about one candidate than
the other, you shift votes,

02:49.133 --> 02:52.266 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70%
not massive numbers,
but you shift enough to
decide a close election.

02:52.266 --> 02:56.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And what that means is that,
if you can get the number of
messages out there to be highly

02:56.566 --> 03:00.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
negative, compared to where
they would have been, in social
media -- that's the trolls

03:00.766 --> 03:05.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
- - and in mainstream and
conservative media - - that's
the hackers -- to shift in both

03:05.666 --> 03:09.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
cases against Secretary Clinton,
candidate Clinton, you're
more likely to move votes

03:09.566 --> 03:10.800 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60%
against her.

03:10.800 --> 03:12.766 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
That's why I call them
discourse saboteurs.

03:12.766 --> 03:17.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
JUDY WOODRUFF: What is so
striking to about this book,
Kathleen Hall Jamieson, is, it's

03:19.066 --> 03:22.033 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70%
about the Russians, yes,
but it's also about the
way the American news
media covers politics.

03:24.000 --> 03:29.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And you talk about the tendency,
the strong tendency we have
in the last many decades

03:30.766 --> 03:34.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
to focus more on
personalities and on process
than we do on policy.

03:34.433 --> 03:36.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
How did that play into what
the Russians were doing?

03:36.833 --> 03:41.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: When
the Russian hackers illegally
stole the Democratic content and

03:41.433 --> 03:45.900 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80%
released it into the
media stream, they were
coming into an environment
in which our reporters

03:45.900 --> 03:50.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
are preoccupied with getting
the real story, the difference
between what the candidates

03:50.600 --> 03:55.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
are really like and they really
plan to do, as opposed to
what they appear to be like

03:55.200 --> 03:57.833 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
and they say
they're going to do.

03:57.833 --> 04:02.033 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80%
So there was a press
narrative that was already
sitting there, and very
comfortably, and amplified

04:03.200 --> 04:05.600 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
by that move to drop
the hacked content in.

04:05.600 --> 04:10.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And Hillary Clinton helped make
that possible by not releasing
her speech text when Bernie

04:10.300 --> 04:12.333 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
Sanders asked for them.

04:12.333 --> 04:16.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And so once those speech texts
are released, they become fodder
for a press narrative that's

04:16.433 --> 04:18.500 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60%
already preset.

04:18.500 --> 04:22.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
And what it does is creates a
narrative that says, she said
one thing in public and another

04:22.633 --> 04:24.633 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
thing in private.

04:24.633 --> 04:28.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
Unfortunately, some of the
press uses of the evidence took
the actual hacked content out

04:28.733 --> 04:32.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
of context to make the case
that that's what she had done,
when, in those instances, she

04:32.900 --> 04:34.933 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60%
actually hadn't.

04:34.933 --> 04:36.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
JUDY WOODRUFF: And your point
is that, if the Russians had
been doing what they have

04:36.933 --> 04:40.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
been doing, but if the media
hasn't cooperated, this
wouldn't have happened.

04:40.933 --> 04:45.266 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70%
KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON:
First, if the media had
said, every time we're
going to say WikiLeaks,

04:45.266 --> 04:50.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
instead, we will say Russian
stolen content hacked from
Democratic accounts illegally,

04:52.200 --> 04:57.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
or Russian stolen content
given us by Julian Assange, who
wanted to see Hillary Clinton

04:57.166 --> 05:01.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
defeated, because Hillary
Clinton wanted him prosecuted
for his use of national security

05:01.800 --> 05:05.166 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
data, the source and the
message would have stayed tied.

05:05.166 --> 05:10.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
By calling it WikiLeaks, the
press made us assume that
this was just normal content,

05:10.000 --> 05:14.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
and was -- that it came from
a news source, a legitimate
source, not from the Russians.

05:14.966 --> 05:16.933 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
Well, it's exactly
what happened.

05:16.933 --> 05:20.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
They hacked the material,
gave it to WikiLeaks,
came into our media.

05:20.133 --> 05:22.566 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
And we lost track of the fact
that it was Russian-sourced.

05:22.566 --> 05:26.333 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70%
JUDY WOODRUFF: Senior
intelligence officials
are telling us that
the Russians are still

05:26.333 --> 05:31.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
trying to interfere in this
election, this midterm year
election, and they expect the

05:32.200 --> 05:33.866 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80%
same thing to happen in 2020.

05:33.866 --> 05:37.233 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70%
If they continue, what's
the likelihood they will
be successful again?

05:37.233 --> 05:41.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: The
social media platforms have made
many changes to try to minimize

05:41.833 --> 05:44.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
the likelihood that they will
be able to replicate 2016.

05:44.700 --> 05:48.933 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70%
They have increased the
likelihood that they're
going to catch anybody
trying to illegally

05:48.933 --> 05:51.933 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
buy ads as a foreign
national, for example.

05:51.933 --> 05:54.933 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
The place that we haven't seen
big changes is with the press.

05:54.933 --> 05:57.400 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
We haven't heard from
our major media outlets.

05:57.400 --> 06:02.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
If tomorrow, somebody hacked
our candidates and released the
content into the media stream,

06:02.333 --> 06:03.333 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
how would you cover it?

06:03.333 --> 06:05.733 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80%
Would you cover it the same?

06:05.733 --> 06:09.066 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80%
And would you assume
its accuracy, instead
of questioning it and
finding additional sourcing

06:09.066 --> 06:11.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
for it, before you release
it into the body politic?

06:11.800 --> 06:15.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
I would like to know what the
press is going to do confronted
with the same situation again.

06:15.400 --> 06:18.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
I do have some sense of what the
social media platforms will do.

06:18.366 --> 06:22.933 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well,
there's some serious work
to be done all around.

06:22.933 --> 06:25.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80%
Kathleen Hall Jamieson, you
performed a real service.

06:25.866 --> 06:29.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80%
The book is "Cyberwar: How
Russian Hackers and Trolls
Helped Elect a President."

06:29.366 --> 06:30.400 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70%
Thank you very much.

06:31.500 --> 06:31.633 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70%
KATHLEEN HALL
JAMIESON: Thank you.