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JUDY WOODRUFF: As we prepare 
for elections next week, we 
want to step back and take a

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close look at what Russian 
officials did to try to 
sway the vote in 2016.

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That's the focus of a new 
book, "Cyberwar," by Kathleen 
Hall Jamieson, a noted scholar

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of American politics.

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We began with a key question: 
Did Russia turn the outcome 
of the last presidential race?

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KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON, 
Author, "Cyberwar: How Russian 
Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect

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a President": I believe 
it's highly probable that 
they did, not certain, 
but highly probable.

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JUDY WOODRUFF: And 
what do you base it on?

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KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: 
Three arguments.

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First, the social media 
intervention, which 
is the Russian trolls 
marauding around in

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cyberspace, pretending they're 
U.S. citizens, had a message 
aligned with candidate Trump's.

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They had identified the right 
voters they needed to mobilize, 
demobilize and shift in

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order to help elect him.

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They had messages that had 
a lot of viral exposure, so 
they reached a lot of people.

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But we're not completely sure, 
although they did have the 
entire Democratic playbook, and

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so they had the means, whether 
they actually reached the 
right voters in the three key

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states.

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The case is tentative.

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JUDY WOODRUFF: You make a point 
of saying that they zeroed 
in on the vulnerabilities

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in our system, the voters 
who could make a difference.

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For example, you write about 
the voters who could be 
persuaded to go with Jill Stein,

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the Green Party candidate, 
African-American voters.

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You are giving the Russians 
a lot of credit, aren't you?

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KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: One 
doesn't have to be really smart, 
if one is a Russian who can

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read English and one follows the 
U.S. media, to see the playbook 
for a campaign consultant

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inside our news structures.

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I quoted in the book extended 
passages in U.S. mainstream 
media explaining which states

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Donald Trump needs to win, 
Hillary Clinton needs to win, 
what kinds of voters they need

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to approach, where 
each is falling short.

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And there are even stories 
to tell you what the best 
way would be to reach them.

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And they not only had that 
information, but they also had 
the complete playbook from the

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Clinton campaign, 
including the voter turnout 
models in key states.

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And then they had 
one more advantage.

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Our social media platforms 
are designed to sell 
us to advertisers.

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And as a result, they have 
built into them the very means 
of reaching the target voter.

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And unlike the past, when you 
had to be really sophisticated 
as a time-buyer, you can now

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use those as a layperson 
to reach the right 
people efficiently.

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JUDY WOODRUFF: And I want to ask 
you some more about the media.

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But, first, I want to ask 
you about the language.

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I mean, you talk about trolls, 
you talk about operatives, but 
you call them Russian discourse

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saboteurs.

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KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: 
My theory of how the 
election outcome was changed 
is that the discourse

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climate was changed.

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So, we know from our past 
research that, when you change 
the balance of the messages, so

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you have more negative messages 
about one candidate than 
the other, you shift votes,

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not massive numbers, 
but you shift enough to 
decide a close election.

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And what that means is that, 
if you can get the number of 
messages out there to be highly

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negative, compared to where 
they would have been, in social 
media -- that's the trolls

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- - and in mainstream and 
conservative media - - that's 
the hackers -- to shift in both

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cases against Secretary Clinton, 
candidate Clinton, you're 
more likely to move votes

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against her.

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That's why I call them 
discourse saboteurs.

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JUDY WOODRUFF: What is so 
striking to about this book, 
Kathleen Hall Jamieson, is, it's

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about the Russians, yes, 
but it's also about the 
way the American news 
media covers politics.

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And you talk about the tendency, 
the strong tendency we have 
in the last many decades

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to focus more on 
personalities and on process 
than we do on policy.

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How did that play into what 
the Russians were doing?

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KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: When 
the Russian hackers illegally 
stole the Democratic content and

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released it into the 
media stream, they were 
coming into an environment 
in which our reporters

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are preoccupied with getting 
the real story, the difference 
between what the candidates

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are really like and they really 
plan to do, as opposed to 
what they appear to be like

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and they say 
they're going to do.

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So there was a press 
narrative that was already 
sitting there, and very 
comfortably, and amplified

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by that move to drop 
the hacked content in.

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And Hillary Clinton helped make 
that possible by not releasing 
her speech text when Bernie

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Sanders asked for them.

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And so once those speech texts 
are released, they become fodder 
for a press narrative that's

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already preset.

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And what it does is creates a 
narrative that says, she said 
one thing in public and another

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thing in private.

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Unfortunately, some of the 
press uses of the evidence took 
the actual hacked content out

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of context to make the case 
that that's what she had done, 
when, in those instances, she

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actually hadn't.

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JUDY WOODRUFF: And your point 
is that, if the Russians had 
been doing what they have

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been doing, but if the media 
hasn't cooperated, this 
wouldn't have happened.

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KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: 
First, if the media had 
said, every time we're 
going to say WikiLeaks,

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instead, we will say Russian 
stolen content hacked from 
Democratic accounts illegally,

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or Russian stolen content 
given us by Julian Assange, who 
wanted to see Hillary Clinton

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defeated, because Hillary 
Clinton wanted him prosecuted 
for his use of national security

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data, the source and the 
message would have stayed tied.

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By calling it WikiLeaks, the 
press made us assume that 
this was just normal content,

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and was -- that it came from 
a news source, a legitimate 
source, not from the Russians.

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Well, it's exactly 
what happened.

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They hacked the material, 
gave it to WikiLeaks, 
came into our media.

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And we lost track of the fact 
that it was Russian-sourced.

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JUDY WOODRUFF: Senior 
intelligence officials 
are telling us that 
the Russians are still

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trying to interfere in this 
election, this midterm year 
election, and they expect the

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same thing to happen in 2020.

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If they continue, what's 
the likelihood they will 
be successful again?

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KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: The 
social media platforms have made 
many changes to try to minimize

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the likelihood that they will 
be able to replicate 2016.

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They have increased the 
likelihood that they're 
going to catch anybody 
trying to illegally

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buy ads as a foreign 
national, for example.

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The place that we haven't seen 
big changes is with the press.

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We haven't heard from 
our major media outlets.

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If tomorrow, somebody hacked 
our candidates and released the 
content into the media stream,

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how would you cover it?

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Would you cover it the same?

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And would you assume 
its accuracy, instead 
of questioning it and 
finding additional sourcing

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for it, before you release 
it into the body politic?

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I would like to know what the 
press is going to do confronted 
with the same situation again.

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I do have some sense of what the 
social media platforms will do.

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JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, 
there's some serious work 
to be done all around.

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Kathleen Hall Jamieson, you 
performed a real service.

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The book is "Cyberwar: How 
Russian Hackers and Trolls 
Helped Elect a President."

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Thank you very much.

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KATHLEEN HALL 
JAMIESON: Thank you.