1 00:00:01,900 --> 00:00:03,933 JUDY WOODRUFF: And now we turn to the political analysis of Shields and Brooks. 2 00:00:03,933 --> 00:00:08,033 That is syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks. 3 00:00:08,033 --> 00:00:09,666 Hello to both of you. 4 00:00:09,666 --> 00:00:11,200 Let's start with our lead story tonight. 5 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:15,100 And that is the whistle-blower from the intelligence community. 6 00:00:15,100 --> 00:00:20,100 The word gets out -- or this person is alleging that he that the president, in a conversation 7 00:00:22,066 --> 00:00:26,833 with -- now we think it's the president of Ukraine, urged the president of Ukraine, Mark, 8 00:00:27,933 --> 00:00:31,533 to investigate Joe Biden's son. 9 00:00:31,533 --> 00:00:36,533 And we have a -- there's still no -- the president denies it, and others do, but now we have 10 00:00:37,733 --> 00:00:40,266 several news outlets backing up the story. 11 00:00:40,266 --> 00:00:43,966 And I was just handed -- and you have seen it -- a statement by Joe Biden. 12 00:00:43,966 --> 00:00:48,566 He says: "If these reports are true, there's truly no bottom to President Trump's willingness 13 00:00:48,566 --> 00:00:51,666 to abuse his power and abuse our country. 14 00:00:51,666 --> 00:00:55,966 This behavior is particularly abhorrent because it exploits the foreign policy of our country 15 00:00:55,966 --> 00:01:00,200 and undermines our national security for political purposes." 16 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,200 How seriously should we be taking these allegations? 17 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,000 MARK SHIELDS: I think they're enormously serious. 18 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:11,000 And the fact that The Wall Street Journal is leading this story, along with The New 19 00:01:13,033 --> 00:01:16,700 York Times and The Washington Post, but this is not false or fake news or anything of the 20 00:01:17,166 --> 00:01:18,400 sort. 21 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,666 It's not a political vendetta of any sort. 22 00:01:20,666 --> 00:01:25,666 And this is quite beyond a Playboy model or a frat party at an Ivy League school or anything 23 00:01:28,733 --> 00:01:29,733 of the sort. 24 00:01:29,733 --> 00:01:32,266 This is really serious. 25 00:01:32,266 --> 00:01:35,933 This is totally exploiting the national security, putting at risk the national security of the 26 00:01:39,766 --> 00:01:44,766 United States for narrow political, personal interests, if, in fact, the reports are true. 27 00:01:47,366 --> 00:01:52,333 And I guess the most disturbing thing to me, Judy, was the president accused the whistle-blower, 28 00:01:54,866 --> 00:01:57,633 who, at enormous risk, and it required considerable courage, of being an extreme partisan, which 29 00:02:01,266 --> 00:02:06,266 means, A, that somebody in the White House knows who the whistle-blower is. 30 00:02:07,133 --> 00:02:08,766 This is mafia-like threats. 31 00:02:08,766 --> 00:02:10,833 We know who you are. 32 00:02:10,833 --> 00:02:14,766 And they have investigated his political affiliation or her political affiliation. 33 00:02:15,933 --> 00:02:18,000 I mean, so, I think it's enormously grave. 34 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,466 JUDY WOODRUFF: And, in fact, the president - - David, the president was saying today to 35 00:02:21,466 --> 00:02:26,466 the television cameras that people in the White House were making fun of all this. 36 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,900 Are we looking at something where it's going to be a he said/he said situation going forward? 37 00:02:34,700 --> 00:02:36,333 DAVID BROOKS: Well, presumably, the call was listened to by others and recorded. 38 00:02:36,333 --> 00:02:39,166 So, I'm not sure it was recorded, but it was certainly listened to. 39 00:02:39,166 --> 00:02:41,300 These calls are not -- it's not just a one-on-one call. 40 00:02:41,300 --> 00:02:42,833 There's people on the line. 41 00:02:42,833 --> 00:02:45,300 You know, I think it is pretty grave. 42 00:02:45,300 --> 00:02:49,533 Most presidents go into the White House thinking, I'm here to serve the office, I'm here to 43 00:02:49,533 --> 00:02:51,600 serve America. 44 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,666 Donald Trump is using America to serve him and American foreign policy to serve him. 45 00:02:55,666 --> 00:02:59,566 And most presidents go into the office thinking that the phrase my fellow Americans means 46 00:02:59,566 --> 00:03:03,466 something and that we have greater loyalty to our fellow Americans than we do the people 47 00:03:03,466 --> 00:03:05,366 in outside countries. 48 00:03:05,366 --> 00:03:10,000 And he's basically using another country to be oppo research on his fellow American. 49 00:03:12,066 --> 00:03:15,100 And I think this rises to more a level -- I'm not sure this really is foundationally changing, 50 00:03:17,066 --> 00:03:21,433 but it rises to a different revel, if there's a connection between the foreign aid and the 51 00:03:21,433 --> 00:03:22,433 promise. 52 00:03:22,433 --> 00:03:24,933 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 53 00:03:24,933 --> 00:03:26,800 DAVID BROOKS: That really is using -- suborning U.S. government money for your own private 54 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:28,166 gain. 55 00:03:28,166 --> 00:03:30,766 And that's clearly corruption of a high order. 56 00:03:30,766 --> 00:03:34,900 JUDY WOODRUFF: And, as both of you are saying, Mark, we don't know for a fact that this happened. 57 00:03:34,900 --> 00:03:38,400 But the evidence is now building, the reporting is building. 58 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,366 And there are two strands. 59 00:03:40,366 --> 00:03:44,533 It is urging the leader of another country to get involved in a political campaign, but 60 00:03:46,433 --> 00:03:48,666 then the quid pro quo, potentially. 61 00:03:48,666 --> 00:03:51,533 MARK SHIELDS: No, exactly, Judy. 62 00:03:51,533 --> 00:03:56,533 To say, look, be in touch with my Dr. Dirt, my oppo research guy, who once was America's 63 00:03:57,733 --> 00:04:00,300 mayor and is now doing smear jobs. 64 00:04:00,300 --> 00:04:01,466 JUDY WOODRUFF: Rudy Giuliani. 65 00:04:01,466 --> 00:04:03,566 MARK SHIELDS: Rudy Giuliani. 66 00:04:03,566 --> 00:04:08,100 How the mighty have fallen to that point where he's an errand boy to be a hit man on political 67 00:04:09,366 --> 00:04:10,533 opponents. 68 00:04:10,533 --> 00:04:12,733 No, David put it very well. 69 00:04:12,733 --> 00:04:17,733 I mean, this is a total, total corruption of the -- if it's valid and if it's accurate 70 00:04:19,766 --> 00:04:23,433 - - and I think that the news reports are done very soberly, quite honestly, because they 71 00:04:26,266 --> 00:04:30,933 take their position -- their mission seriously. 72 00:04:30,933 --> 00:04:35,933 If it's true, Judy, then I don't see how the Democrats can back off on impeachment investigation. 73 00:04:39,100 --> 00:04:42,866 JUDY WOODRUFF: And I want to ask you about that because this week, David, as both of 74 00:04:42,866 --> 00:04:45,666 you have pointed out, the president's lawyers were in court. 75 00:04:45,666 --> 00:04:50,666 They were arguing against a New York lawsuit, an attempt to get the president's tax returns 76 00:04:53,033 --> 00:04:55,066 to be turned over, to be made public. 77 00:04:55,066 --> 00:04:59,466 And the president's lawyers are saying you can't investigate a president while he's sitting 78 00:04:59,466 --> 00:05:01,666 in office. 79 00:05:01,666 --> 00:05:06,033 What we're learning today in these reports about Ukraine raise questions about that. 80 00:05:07,966 --> 00:05:09,600 DAVID BROOKS: Yes, this was the Nixon defense with David Frost, that, if a president does 81 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:10,600 it, it's not illegal. 82 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:11,800 And it didn't work for Nixon. 83 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:13,866 I'm not sure it would work for here. 84 00:05:13,866 --> 00:05:17,700 I mean, a basic principle of our government is that no person is above the law. 85 00:05:17,700 --> 00:05:19,800 And so I don't think that will work. 86 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,900 I am struck -- I do think, if there's a link to the foreign aid, the Democrats obviously 87 00:05:23,900 --> 00:05:26,500 have to launch a different and new investigation. 88 00:05:26,500 --> 00:05:31,233 I'm struck mostly by, when President Trump does something out in the open, or Rudy Giuliani 89 00:05:31,233 --> 00:05:34,533 does something out in the open, like, it doesn't become a big thing. 90 00:05:34,533 --> 00:05:38,800 Now that we have something secret that the press have uncovered, suddenly, it blows up. 91 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,033 But Giuliani wasn't shy about this. 92 00:05:41,033 --> 00:05:44,200 And the fall of Giuliani is one of the great stories of our age. 93 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:48,133 I covered him a lot when he was mayor, extremely brilliant, extremely sharp, not the man I 94 00:05:48,133 --> 00:05:50,233 see today. 95 00:05:50,233 --> 00:05:53,733 The one continuity is that he would sit around with his staff and watch "The Godfather" movies 96 00:05:53,733 --> 00:05:54,733 over and over again. 97 00:05:54,733 --> 00:05:56,366 MARK SHIELDS: Wow. 98 00:05:56,366 --> 00:05:57,633 DAVID BROOKS: And the mob behavior -- this really is mob behavior. 99 00:05:57,633 --> 00:05:59,800 It's like, let's dig up dirt on this guy. 100 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:01,866 That's the way it strikes me, more than anything else. 101 00:06:01,866 --> 00:06:05,666 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, and, again, Mark, with these -- with the president's lawyers fighting 102 00:06:05,666 --> 00:06:09,666 back, which they have been -- they have been fighting all these attempts to get any information 103 00:06:09,666 --> 00:06:10,666 turned over. 104 00:06:10,666 --> 00:06:12,766 MARK SHIELDS: Right. 105 00:06:12,766 --> 00:06:13,433 JUDY WOODRUFF: But this is the first time we have heard them argue a president can't 106 00:06:13,433 --> 00:06:14,633 be investigated. 107 00:06:14,633 --> 00:06:15,800 MARK SHIELDS: Can't be investigated. 108 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,833 I agree with David about the Nixon defense. 109 00:06:17,833 --> 00:06:22,233 Nixon, of course, invoked that defense in 1977, three years after he had been forced 110 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,400 out, in an interview with David Frost. 111 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:29,900 But no president -- he did prove that, and by his own statement and his own actions, 112 00:06:31,033 --> 00:06:33,100 that no president can be above the law. 113 00:06:33,100 --> 00:06:37,833 And, no, I really think the gravity of this is yet to be fully appreciated. 114 00:06:40,166 --> 00:06:43,866 JUDY WOODRUFF: The major -- other major story we're watching very closely this week, David, 115 00:06:43,866 --> 00:06:48,866 of course, is the -- in the aftermath of the attack on the Saudi oil complex and the administration 116 00:06:50,833 --> 00:06:54,366 pointing fingers immediately at Iran, although, so far, we don't have absolute proof. 117 00:06:56,366 --> 00:06:58,400 I'm told there's just been a press conference at the Department of Defense. 118 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:03,333 The defense secretary, Esper, is saying everything we have now points to Iran. 119 00:07:05,366 --> 00:07:08,500 President Trump's response has been first to talk about being locked and loaded and 120 00:07:08,500 --> 00:07:13,500 we could do whatever we wanted to Iran, but, on the other hand, today and at intervals 121 00:07:14,900 --> 00:07:16,933 this past week, saying, no, that's not what we want. 122 00:07:16,933 --> 00:07:19,133 We don't want war with Iran. 123 00:07:19,133 --> 00:07:21,400 What do we make of this American response? 124 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:22,800 DAVID BROOKS: Yes. 125 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:23,733 Well, you know, this happens in the Middle East. 126 00:07:23,733 --> 00:07:27,066 And all arrows do point to Iran. 127 00:07:27,066 --> 00:07:30,933 I mean, Iran has been clearly ramping up their terror activity toward the Saudis over the 128 00:07:30,933 --> 00:07:33,666 last several months with a bunch of these missile attacks. 129 00:07:33,666 --> 00:07:37,200 Secondly, the fact that these attacks, somehow, they did it -- a sophisticated enough weapon 130 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:38,366 to get through. 131 00:07:38,366 --> 00:07:39,766 No American missile base saw them. 132 00:07:39,766 --> 00:07:42,800 There are a lot of American bases in the region. 133 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,766 And so that suggests it was something more than just a small rebel army. 134 00:07:46,766 --> 00:07:49,500 It was a really sophisticated attack. 135 00:07:49,500 --> 00:07:53,166 And so what's happening is, Iran is clearly testing to see what it can get away with in 136 00:07:53,166 --> 00:07:55,166 order to intimidate the Saudis. 137 00:07:55,166 --> 00:07:57,333 And the Saudis know they're very vulnerable to this kind of attack. 138 00:07:57,333 --> 00:07:58,866 They're trying to sell their oil company. 139 00:07:58,866 --> 00:08:01,833 The oil markets are their bread and butter. 140 00:08:01,833 --> 00:08:06,833 And Iran is the country that is hegemonic or trying to be hegemonic in the region. 141 00:08:08,233 --> 00:08:10,466 And they have got an ideology they're trying to export. 142 00:08:10,466 --> 00:08:12,900 And so I think Trump is actually playing it reasonably well. 143 00:08:12,900 --> 00:08:17,333 I mean, it's a chess match, where they launch something, and then we try to frighten them, 144 00:08:17,333 --> 00:08:20,433 or we try to put some economic sanctions on them. 145 00:08:20,433 --> 00:08:24,200 And so Trump is pushing back without going crazy. 146 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,833 And so he's not being violent. 147 00:08:26,833 --> 00:08:31,833 And so far, I think he's playing the game as -- sort of as well as you can do under 148 00:08:32,566 --> 00:08:33,800 in the circumstance. 149 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:35,933 JUDY WOODRUFF: He's handling it well? 150 00:08:35,933 --> 00:08:38,833 MARK SHIELDS: He's not being violent, but I think we have to say that we are where we 151 00:08:39,966 --> 00:08:42,633 are today with Iran because of Donald Trump. 152 00:08:42,633 --> 00:08:47,633 Donald Trump withdrew, on political grounds alone -- that was his only basis, that Barack 153 00:08:50,133 --> 00:08:53,433 Obama had negotiated that agreement, the nuclear agreement, with the Iranians, with the United 154 00:08:55,333 --> 00:08:59,100 States, and U.K., and Russia, China, Germany, France, put it all together. 155 00:09:00,766 --> 00:09:05,733 There were 98 percent reduction in their capacity. 156 00:09:05,733 --> 00:09:07,900 They were open to inspection. 157 00:09:07,900 --> 00:09:10,466 And he withdrew, and there was nothing to replace it. 158 00:09:10,466 --> 00:09:12,433 He has no coalition partners. 159 00:09:12,433 --> 00:09:14,533 He has lost his coalition. 160 00:09:14,533 --> 00:09:18,800 We are now standing, waiting for the judgment of the Saudi prince as to whether we go to 161 00:09:19,900 --> 00:09:21,966 - - send Americans to war. 162 00:09:21,966 --> 00:09:24,833 I mean, what are our shared values with the Saudis? 163 00:09:24,833 --> 00:09:26,266 I missed those. 164 00:09:26,266 --> 00:09:30,466 Are they freedom of press, religion, assembly, rule of law? 165 00:09:30,466 --> 00:09:32,833 Is there anything? 166 00:09:32,833 --> 00:09:37,266 I think what we have seen is that -- the limitations of budget defense sales to a country. 167 00:09:39,133 --> 00:09:41,633 I mean, Trump boasts over the fact we have sold $4 billion. 168 00:09:41,633 --> 00:09:46,633 They have the fifth largest defense budget in the world, the Saudis do, and they can't 169 00:09:47,366 --> 00:09:48,800 even defend themselves. 170 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:53,266 And, you know, they are overbuilt, they're overmuscled. 171 00:09:53,266 --> 00:09:55,000 And David's right. 172 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:56,966 We're not going to win this. 173 00:09:56,966 --> 00:10:00,766 And the Iranians know we're not going to -- President Trump doesn't want to go to war. 174 00:10:00,766 --> 00:10:03,333 I don't say -- accuse him of being a warmonger. 175 00:10:03,333 --> 00:10:07,566 And he doesn't want to go to war because 2020 is coming up, and a war in the Middle East 176 00:10:07,566 --> 00:10:09,533 is about the last thing in the world any president wants. 177 00:10:09,533 --> 00:10:10,533 DAVID BROOKS: Yes. 178 00:10:10,533 --> 00:10:11,533 I... 179 00:10:11,533 --> 00:10:13,533 (CROSSTALK) 180 00:10:13,533 --> 00:10:14,333 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, I should add, I just was told another comment from the defense 181 00:10:14,333 --> 00:10:16,400 secretary just now. 182 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,000 He said: "We will send" -- the U.S. will send some troops to the region, but he said it 183 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:20,000 won't be in the thousands. 184 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,033 DAVID BROOKS: Right. 185 00:10:22,033 --> 00:10:23,833 JUDY WOODRUFF: So we don't know what that means, but it's a half-step, David, I think. 186 00:10:23,833 --> 00:10:24,833 (CROSSTALK) 187 00:10:24,833 --> 00:10:26,100 DAVID BROOKS: Yes. 188 00:10:26,100 --> 00:10:27,033 This is what -- you do this, I do this. 189 00:10:27,033 --> 00:10:28,500 We are signaling to each other. 190 00:10:28,500 --> 00:10:30,466 It's a dance. 191 00:10:30,466 --> 00:10:32,566 I think the Iranians probably know Trump is not going to do anything. 192 00:10:32,566 --> 00:10:34,833 He's going to send a signal, but he's not going to -- he doesn't want to go to war, 193 00:10:34,833 --> 00:10:36,666 so they do have the upper hand on this. 194 00:10:36,666 --> 00:10:38,000 One area where I disagree with Mark... 195 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,166 MARK SHIELDS: OK. 196 00:10:40,166 --> 00:10:42,233 DAVID BROOKS: ... is, I don't think this is entirely due to the Iranian nuclear deal being 197 00:10:42,233 --> 00:10:44,333 canceled. 198 00:10:44,333 --> 00:10:47,966 The critics of that deal, even before it was accepted, said the problem is that Iran has 199 00:10:47,966 --> 00:10:50,033 two bad things. 200 00:10:50,033 --> 00:10:52,600 They're doing the nuclear program, but the terror in the region program. 201 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,533 And many people criticized that deal because it did nothing to address Iran's terror in 202 00:10:56,533 --> 00:10:57,900 the region program. 203 00:10:57,900 --> 00:11:00,000 And that's what this is a continuation of. 204 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:03,133 It may be ramped up a little, but they have been doing this sort of thing for -- well, 205 00:11:03,133 --> 00:11:04,133 since 1979. 206 00:11:04,133 --> 00:11:05,366 MARK SHIELDS: Yes. 207 00:11:05,366 --> 00:11:09,033 I mean, I'm not here as an apologist for Iran. 208 00:11:09,033 --> 00:11:14,033 I'm saying there was a coherent coalition to contain and to limit Iranian activity and 209 00:11:17,366 --> 00:11:19,500 Iranian negative influence. 210 00:11:19,500 --> 00:11:23,900 And I believe it was working, and that there is now no substitute is exactly like his health 211 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:26,600 care plan. 212 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,066 0 There is no substitute. 213 00:11:28,066 --> 00:11:32,533 I mean, dismantle what is there, and replace it with nothing. 214 00:11:32,533 --> 00:11:35,700 And I honestly think -- there's no one-off with Iran. 215 00:11:35,700 --> 00:11:40,700 I mean, Iran has got Syria bases. 216 00:11:42,700 --> 00:11:46,200 Iran has opportunities to perplex and torment us in all kinds of places. 217 00:11:48,266 --> 00:11:52,833 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, and this story is -- now we're a week into it, but it looks as if we're 218 00:11:54,866 --> 00:11:58,233 about to see the next phase with the announcement of troops going into -- more troops going 219 00:11:58,233 --> 00:12:00,433 into the region. 220 00:12:00,433 --> 00:12:02,466 Mark Shields, David Brooks, thank you. 221 00:12:02,466 --> 00:12:03,200 MARK SHIELDS: Thank you.