WEBVTT 00:02.533 --> 00:04.633 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: As we reported earlier, British Prime Minister Theresa May announced her Cabinet 00:04.633 --> 00:09.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% had approved a deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union on the terms for Brexit. 00:11.166 --> 00:15.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% It comes nearly two-and-a-half years after Britain narrowly voted to leave the E.U. 00:17.600 --> 00:20.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Foreign affairs correspondent Nick Schifrin reports on the terms of separation, and why 00:20.500 --> 00:22.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% there's still a long way to go. 00:22.633 --> 00:27.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: In the European Union, when it comes to divorce, as is always the case, 00:27.633 --> 00:31.933 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% the hardest negotiations can be over property, money and the children. 00:31.933 --> 00:35.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And so it is with Brexit, a divorce where there's not only two sides, but the British 00:35.900 --> 00:39.100 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% family is fighting within itself. 00:39.100 --> 00:43.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Prime Minister Theresa May is proposing a kind of divorce with a transition period of 00:43.000 --> 00:45.533 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% remaining friends as the best deal possible. 00:45.533 --> 00:49.166 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% THERESA MAY, British Prime Minister: The choice was this deal, which enables us to take back 00:49.166 --> 00:54.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% control and to build a brighter future for our country, or going back to square one, 00:56.066 --> 00:59.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% with more division, more uncertainty, and a failure to deliver on the referendum. 00:59.300 --> 01:03.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: On property, the sticking point has been the border between Northern Ireland, 01:03.766 --> 01:08.433 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% part of the U.K., and the Republic of Ireland, a separate country that's part of the E.U. 01:08.433 --> 01:12.633 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% Today, cars can pass easily because there is effectively no border. 01:12.633 --> 01:17.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The Brexit agreement prevents the return of a hard border by temporarily keeping Northern 01:17.466 --> 01:19.366 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Ireland inside the E.U. 01:19.366 --> 01:23.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Customs Union, avoiding customs checks between Northern Ireland and Ireland. 01:23.633 --> 01:28.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% On money, Britain would continue to pay the E.U. as much as $80 billion for decades. 01:28.400 --> 01:33.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And, as for the children, British citizens living in the E.U. and E.U. citizens living 01:33.200 --> 01:38.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% in Britain, they would maintain current residence and Social Security rights. 01:38.066 --> 01:41.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% This morning in Parliament, May presented the deal as the kind of divorce mandated by 01:41.766 --> 01:43.466 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% the Brexit referendum. 01:43.466 --> 01:46.933 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% THERESA MAY: We will take back control of our money, laws and borders. 01:46.933 --> 01:51.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% We will deliver Brexit, and the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union on the 29th 01:52.533 --> 01:54.566 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% of March 2019. 01:54.566 --> 01:58.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: But May's critics from her own party say the break isn't hard enough. 02:00.933 --> 02:03.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Leading Brexit proponent Jacob Rees-Mogg wants a divorce that's a cleaner split. 02:03.533 --> 02:05.633 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JACOB REES-MOGG, British Parliament Member: Well, she hasn't so much struck a deal as 02:05.633 --> 02:09.700 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% surrendered to Brussels and given into them on everything they want, and tried to frustrate 02:09.700 --> 02:13.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Brexit, that it is not so much the vassal state anymore as the slave state. 02:13.300 --> 02:16.366 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Critics on the right argue staying in that E.U. 02:16.366 --> 02:20.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Customs Union prevents the U.K. from making bilateral trade deals, and binds the U.K. 02:20.966 --> 02:23.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% to draconian E.U. trade rules. 02:23.633 --> 02:28.100 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% And the leader of a member of Theresa May's coalition, Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist 02:28.100 --> 02:33.100 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Party head Arlene Foster, fears the Ireland border deal doesn't guarantee Northern Ireland's 02:34.233 --> 02:36.733 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% integrity inside the United Kingdom. 02:36.733 --> 02:38.433 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% ARLENE FOSTER, Leader, Democratic Unionist Party: It's a question of whether we are dealing 02:38.433 --> 02:41.966 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% with the United Kingdom in a way that leaves us adrift in the future. 02:41.966 --> 02:45.466 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And as the leader of Unionism in Northern Ireland, I'm not about to agree to that. 02:45.466 --> 02:49.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: The next step, is the E.U. must approve, and then the British Parliament 02:49.266 --> 02:51.266 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% has to agree. 02:51.266 --> 02:55.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And analysts predict that the most difficult step of a divorce that's already been hard 02:55.066 --> 02:57.166 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% on everyone. 02:57.166 --> 03:01.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So, where does the Brexit process go from here, and what about the future of the U.K., 03:01.066 --> 03:04.066 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% the E.U., and the wider European project? 03:04.066 --> 03:08.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% For that, we turn to Sebastian Mallaby, longtime author and journalist and the Paul Volcker 03:08.233 --> 03:12.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. 03:12.033 --> 03:13.666 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% He joins me from London. 03:13.666 --> 03:16.466 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% Sebastian Mallaby, thank you very much for coming on the "NewsHour." 03:16.466 --> 03:21.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% There is a lot of reporting tonight about how difficult it was for Theresa May to get 03:21.266 --> 03:23.366 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% this through her Cabinet. 03:23.366 --> 03:25.400 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Why so challenging? 03:25.400 --> 03:27.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% SEBASTIAN MALLABY, Council on Foreign Relations: This has been a drawn-out process, during 03:27.400 --> 03:32.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% which negotiating a deal with the 27 countries of the European Union has delivered a cold 03:34.266 --> 03:39.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% reality shock to those who supported Brexit, because the promises made in the referendum 03:41.300 --> 03:44.233 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% have proven very hard to realize in practice. 03:44.233 --> 03:49.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So, we have a deal, at least a draft of a deal, which, ironically, is not pleasing to 03:50.666 --> 03:52.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% the people who wanted to leave the European Union. 03:52.800 --> 03:57.800 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So, those who argued for Brexit are now saying that the Brexit implementation is not good 03:58.333 --> 04:00.500 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% enough. 04:00.500 --> 04:04.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And that's why Theresa May has faced enormous resistance from the right flank of her party 04:05.733 --> 04:07.800 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% that wanted a harder break with the rest of Europe. 04:07.800 --> 04:10.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: And so we heard from some of those Brexiters in the story we just played. 04:10.900 --> 04:15.166 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% We also heard from some of the challenges from within her coalition. 04:15.166 --> 04:18.733 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% How difficult will it be, therefore, to get through Parliament? 04:18.733 --> 04:22.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% SEBASTIAN MALLABY: Parliament is going to be a very tough challenge. 04:22.166 --> 04:27.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Theresa May's Conservative government only has a majority by virtue of the support of 04:28.300 --> 04:31.166 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% the small Northern Irish party, the DUP. 04:31.166 --> 04:35.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% That party is threatening for now that it would vote against the deal. 04:35.333 --> 04:40.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And since the Labor Party will mostly oppose the deal too, it only takes a few rebels from 04:42.366 --> 04:46.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% the Conservative ranks, let's say 20 or 30, to really tip this into the territory where 04:47.266 --> 04:48.966 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% you can't imagine it going through. 04:48.966 --> 04:52.366 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% And it does look at the moment that that's how it will turn out. 04:52.366 --> 04:56.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: And I want to ask about some of the specific criticism from the Democratic 04:56.733 --> 05:00.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Unionist Party from Northern Ireland, part of the coalition. 05:00.200 --> 05:05.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% They worry that this deal basically puts them closer to the European Union than it does 05:06.466 --> 05:07.466 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% to the United Kingdom. 05:07.466 --> 05:09.500 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Do they have a point? 05:09.500 --> 05:13.866 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% SEBASTIAN MALLABY: Well, their position is that they didn't want anything, even a hint 05:13.866 --> 05:18.866 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% of anything that could drive a wedge between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. 05:20.833 --> 05:24.366 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% For now, that isn't happening, because the interim deal is that the whole of Britain 05:26.266 --> 05:28.133 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% stays inside the E.U. 05:28.133 --> 05:30.300 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% Customs Union. 05:30.300 --> 05:34.133 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% And, therefore, there's a sort of hypothetical, theoretical objection which the Northern Irish 05:34.700 --> 05:36.366 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% have. 05:36.366 --> 05:39.100 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% It isn't actually something that's going to bite anytime soon. 05:39.100 --> 05:44.100 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So it's possible, in terms of the politics, that the Northern Irish constituency will 05:45.533 --> 05:48.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% be persuaded in the end to back Theresa May's deal. 05:48.866 --> 05:51.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And that could make all the difference in terms of parliamentary passage. 05:51.566 --> 05:53.666 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% NICK SCHIFRIN: Let's zoom out a little bit. 05:53.666 --> 05:58.666 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% E.U. officials who I have talked to, who talk publicly say that we had to exact some revenge, 06:00.666 --> 06:04.100 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% we had to make this process difficult on the United Kingdom, in order to prove that -- to 06:06.100 --> 06:09.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% other countries who might think about exiting that they shouldn't try this. 06:09.000 --> 06:12.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Do you think the E.U. officials who have said that, have they succeeded? 06:12.033 --> 06:15.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% SEBASTIAN MALLABY: It's true that there is a populist government in Italy. 06:15.566 --> 06:18.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% There are populists on the rise in Germany and so forth. 06:18.900 --> 06:23.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And, therefore, there is a desire to teach those populists the consequences of their 06:23.900 --> 06:26.366 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% anti-E.U. rhetoric. 06:26.366 --> 06:30.233 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% But there's also been a desire, I think, particularly in Germany, to try to have as decent a relationship 06:31.100 --> 06:33.566 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% with Britain as they can. 06:33.566 --> 06:36.866 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% In fact, the vindictiveness has been a mixed picture. 06:36.866 --> 06:41.866 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And I don't really view the outcome of this deal as the product of European vindiction. 06:43.733 --> 06:47.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% They had less to fear from a zero deal scenario than Britain did. 06:47.400 --> 06:50.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And so the Europeans did get more of what they wanted. 06:50.200 --> 06:53.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: And the pressure on the E.U. isn't only, of course, Brexit. 06:53.833 --> 06:55.933 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% You mentioned populism. 06:55.933 --> 07:00.700 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Migration through Europe has helped push German Chancellor Angela Merkel out of her job. 07:02.233 --> 07:04.200 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% What is the state right now of the European integration project? 07:04.200 --> 07:06.300 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% SEBASTIAN MALLABY: I mean, it's pretty fragile. 07:06.300 --> 07:10.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And so when you look at a highly indebted economy like Italy, which, unlike Greece, 07:12.333 --> 07:14.700 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% is too big to be bail out -- it's too big to bail. 07:14.700 --> 07:16.500 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% And right now, it has a populist government. 07:16.500 --> 07:19.400 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% The economic path is looking pretty dicey. 07:19.400 --> 07:24.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And so you could easily imagine a resumption of the Eurozone crisis of a few years ago. 07:25.533 --> 07:27.433 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% So, that's tension number one in Europe. 07:27.433 --> 07:31.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And the second, as you mentioned, is migration, which has temporarily abated. 07:31.733 --> 07:35.533 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% There was the big surge in 2015. 07:35.533 --> 07:36.800 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% But now -- in 2016. 07:36.800 --> 07:38.633 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% But now that's gone down. 07:38.633 --> 07:40.700 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% It will come back again. 07:40.700 --> 07:44.666 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% And so I foresee that these arguments about migration, tensions over the single currency 07:46.100 --> 07:49.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% are going to come back, and it's going to be tough for Europe. 07:49.500 --> 07:53.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% The ambitions of a few years ago were, let's carry on deepening. 07:53.000 --> 07:55.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Let's carry on even enlarging. 07:55.400 --> 07:57.466 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% That has gone away. 07:57.466 --> 08:00.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Sebastian Mallaby with the Council on Foreign Relations, thank you very much. 08:01.233 --> 08:02.066 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% SEBASTIAN MALLABY: Thank you.