JUDY WOODRUFF: As we
reported earlier, British
Prime Minister Theresa
May announced her Cabinet

had approved a deal between the
United Kingdom and the European
Union on the terms for Brexit.

It comes nearly two-and-a-half
years after Britain narrowly
voted to leave the E.U.

Foreign affairs correspondent
Nick Schifrin reports on the
terms of separation, and why

there's still a long way to go.

NICK SCHIFRIN: In the European
Union, when it comes to
divorce, as is always the case,

the hardest negotiations
can be over property,
money and the children.

And so it is with Brexit, a
divorce where there's not only
two sides, but the British

family is fighting
within itself.

Prime Minister Theresa May is
proposing a kind of divorce
with a transition period of

remaining friends as
the best deal possible.

THERESA MAY, British
Prime Minister: The choice
was this deal, which
enables us to take back

control and to build a brighter
future for our country, or
going back to square one,

with more division, more
uncertainty, and a failure
to deliver on the referendum.

NICK SCHIFRIN: On property,
the sticking point has been the
border between Northern Ireland,

part of the U.K., and the
Republic of Ireland, a separate
country that's part of the E.U.

Today, cars can pass
easily because there is
effectively no border.

The Brexit agreement prevents
the return of a hard border by
temporarily keeping Northern

Ireland inside the E.U.

Customs Union, avoiding
customs checks between
Northern Ireland and Ireland.

On money, Britain would continue
to pay the E.U. as much as
$80 billion for decades.

And, as for the children,
British citizens living in the
E.U. and E.U. citizens living

in Britain, they would
maintain current residence
and Social Security rights.

This morning in Parliament,
May presented the deal as the
kind of divorce mandated by

the Brexit referendum.

THERESA MAY: We will
take back control of our
money, laws and borders.

We will deliver Brexit, and
the United Kingdom is leaving
the European Union on the 29th

of March 2019.

NICK SCHIFRIN: But May's
critics from her own party say
the break isn't hard enough.

Leading Brexit proponent Jacob
Rees-Mogg wants a divorce
that's a cleaner split.

JACOB REES-MOGG, British
Parliament Member: Well, she
hasn't so much struck a deal as

surrendered to Brussels
and given into them on
everything they want,
and tried to frustrate

Brexit, that it is not
so much the vassal state
anymore as the slave state.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Critics on the
right argue staying in that E.U.

Customs Union prevents the
U.K. from making bilateral
trade deals, and binds the U.K.

to draconian E.U. trade rules.

And the leader of a member
of Theresa May's coalition,
Northern Ireland's
Democratic Unionist

Party head Arlene Foster, fears
the Ireland border deal doesn't
guarantee Northern Ireland's

integrity inside
the United Kingdom.

ARLENE FOSTER, Leader,
Democratic Unionist
Party: It's a question
of whether we are dealing

with the United Kingdom
in a way that leaves us
adrift in the future.

And as the leader of Unionism
in Northern Ireland, I'm
not about to agree to that.

NICK SCHIFRIN: The next step,
is the E.U. must approve, and
then the British Parliament

has to agree.

And analysts predict that
the most difficult step of a
divorce that's already been hard

on everyone.

So, where does the Brexit
process go from here, and what
about the future of the U.K.,

the E.U., and the
wider European project?

For that, we turn to Sebastian
Mallaby, longtime author and
journalist and the Paul Volcker

senior fellow for international
economics at the Council
on Foreign Relations.

He joins me from London.

Sebastian Mallaby, thank
you very much for coming
on the "NewsHour."

There is a lot of reporting
tonight about how difficult
it was for Theresa May to get

this through her Cabinet.

Why so challenging?

SEBASTIAN MALLABY, Council on
Foreign Relations: This has
been a drawn-out process, during

which negotiating a deal with
the 27 countries of the European
Union has delivered a cold

reality shock to those who
supported Brexit, because the
promises made in the referendum

have proven very hard
to realize in practice.

So, we have a deal, at least
a draft of a deal, which,
ironically, is not pleasing to

the people who wanted to
leave the European Union.

So, those who argued for Brexit
are now saying that the Brexit
implementation is not good

enough.

And that's why Theresa May has
faced enormous resistance from
the right flank of her party

that wanted a harder break
with the rest of Europe.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And so we heard
from some of those Brexiters
in the story we just played.

We also heard from some
of the challenges from
within her coalition.

How difficult will it
be, therefore, to get
through Parliament?

SEBASTIAN MALLABY:
Parliament is going to be
a very tough challenge.

Theresa May's Conservative
government only has a majority
by virtue of the support of

the small Northern
Irish party, the DUP.

That party is threatening
for now that it would
vote against the deal.

And since the Labor Party will
mostly oppose the deal too, it
only takes a few rebels from

the Conservative ranks, let's
say 20 or 30, to really tip
this into the territory where

you can't imagine
it going through.

And it does look at
the moment that that's
how it will turn out.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And I want to
ask about some of the specific
criticism from the Democratic

Unionist Party from Northern
Ireland, part of the coalition.

They worry that this deal
basically puts them closer to
the European Union than it does

to the United Kingdom.

Do they have a point?

SEBASTIAN MALLABY: Well, their
position is that they didn't
want anything, even a hint

of anything that could drive
a wedge between Northern
Ireland and mainland Britain.

For now, that isn't happening,
because the interim deal is
that the whole of Britain

stays inside the E.U.

Customs Union.

And, therefore, there's
a sort of hypothetical,
theoretical objection
which the Northern Irish

have.

It isn't actually
something that's going
to bite anytime soon.

So it's possible, in terms
of the politics, that the
Northern Irish constituency will

be persuaded in the end to
back Theresa May's deal.

And that could make all
the difference in terms
of parliamentary passage.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Let's
zoom out a little bit.

E.U. officials who I have talked
to, who talk publicly say that
we had to exact some revenge,

we had to make this process
difficult on the United Kingdom,
in order to prove that -- to

other countries who might
think about exiting that
they shouldn't try this.

Do you think the E.U.
officials who have said
that, have they succeeded?

SEBASTIAN MALLABY: It's true
that there is a populist
government in Italy.

There are populists on the
rise in Germany and so forth.

And, therefore, there is a
desire to teach those populists
the consequences of their

anti-E.U. rhetoric.

But there's also been a
desire, I think, particularly
in Germany, to try to have
as decent a relationship

with Britain as they can.

In fact, the vindictiveness
has been a mixed picture.

And I don't really view the
outcome of this deal as the
product of European vindiction.

They had less to fear
from a zero deal scenario
than Britain did.

And so the Europeans did get
more of what they wanted.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And the
pressure on the E.U. isn't
only, of course, Brexit.

You mentioned populism.

Migration through Europe has
helped push German Chancellor
Angela Merkel out of her job.

What is the state right
now of the European
integration project?

SEBASTIAN MALLABY: I
mean, it's pretty fragile.

And so when you look at a
highly indebted economy like
Italy, which, unlike Greece,

is too big to be bail out
-- it's too big to bail.

And right now, it has
a populist government.

The economic path is
looking pretty dicey.

And so you could easily imagine
a resumption of the Eurozone
crisis of a few years ago.

So, that's tension
number one in Europe.

And the second, as you
mentioned, is migration,
which has temporarily abated.

There was the big surge in 2015.

But now -- in 2016.

But now that's gone down.

It will come back again.

And so I foresee that
these arguments about
migration, tensions
over the single currency

are going to come back, and it's
going to be tough for Europe.

The ambitions of a few years ago
were, let's carry on deepening.

Let's carry on even enlarging.

That has gone away.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Sebastian Mallaby
with the Council on Foreign
Relations, thank you very much.

SEBASTIAN MALLABY: Thank you.