WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:03.600 JUDY WOODRUFF: War in Ukraine could come within days, 00:03.600 --> 00:08.600 President Biden said today, as artillery that Ukraine blamed on Russian-backed separatists 00:09.360 --> 00:13.760 hit a kindergarten in the eastern part of the country, and as a tense standoff 00:13.760 --> 00:18.560 between the West and Russia came to a point in the United Nations Security Council. 00:18.560 --> 00:23.560 More than 150,000 Russian troops remain massed tonight on the borders of Ukraine. 00:24.560 --> 00:26.400 Nick Schifrin again starts our coverage. 00:26.400 --> 00:31.400 NICK SCHIFRIN: Near the line of contact between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed 00:32.240 --> 00:36.640 separatists, this morning, a shell pierced the wall of a kindergarten classroom that, 00:36.640 --> 00:39.280 on Tuesday, had been full of 5-year-olds and their teachers. 00:40.720 --> 00:44.800 This morning, they fled from what the Ukrainian government called separatist shelling. 00:44.800 --> 00:47.920 The U.S. fears a Russian attack like this could be the first 00:47.920 --> 00:50.800 shot fired in a wider war that's about to start. 00:50.800 --> 00:52.480 JOE BIDEN, President of the United States: We have reason to believe 00:52.480 --> 00:57.480 that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. 00:57.640 --> 00:59.920 QUESTION: Is your sense that this is going to happen now? 00:59.920 --> 01:04.400 JOE BIDEN: Yes. Not my sense is, it will happen within the next several days. 01:04.400 --> 01:08.640 NICK SCHIFRIN: Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a last-minute visit to New York 01:08.640 --> 01:11.840 to reveal new intelligence about a possible Russian pretext. 01:11.840 --> 01:15.040 ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of State: It could be a fabricated, so-called terrorist bombing 01:15.040 --> 01:20.040 inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, 01:22.480 --> 01:27.480 or a fake, even a real attack using chemical weapons. 01:28.800 --> 01:33.040 Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide. 01:33.040 --> 01:36.560 NICK SCHIFRIN: Indeed, ahead of the meeting, Russia delivered to the Security Council what it 01:36.560 --> 01:41.560 called a joint project with the news channel R.T. about -- quote -- "war crimes" in Eastern Ukraine. 01:42.480 --> 01:46.320 R.T., formerly known as Russia Today, has already been publishing stories 01:46.320 --> 01:49.600 about British-trained -- quote - - "saboteurs" planning attacks, 01:49.600 --> 01:54.240 and American mercenaries preparing a -- quote - - "provocation" using chemical weapons. 01:54.240 --> 01:58.560 Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Vershinin blamed today's violence on Ukraine. 01:58.560 --> 01:59.680 SERGEY VERSHININ, Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister (through translator): People for many 01:59.680 --> 02:04.680 years have been subject to shelling by the Ukrainian army, and that has continued today. 02:04.720 --> 02:09.360 NICK SCHIFRIN: But U.S. officials say it's the Russian army that continues shelling 02:09.360 --> 02:14.360 in massive exercises in Belarus. Russia says it's withdrawing some troops, but senior U.S. officials 02:15.440 --> 02:20.440 say the number of Russian troops increased by 7,000, and they are poised for invasion. 02:21.120 --> 02:23.280 British intelligence even tweeted what it called 02:23.280 --> 02:26.560 Russia's possible axis of invasion on seven fronts. 02:26.560 --> 02:27.360 COLIN POWELL, Former U.S. Secretary of State: Saddam 02:27.360 --> 02:30.640 Hussein and his regime have made no effort, no effort. 02:30.640 --> 02:34.080 NICK SCHIFRIN: And 19 years after one of Blinken's predecessors gave a 02:34.080 --> 02:37.760 speech based on false intelligence, Blinken embraced the comparison. 02:37.760 --> 02:41.200 ANTONY BLINKEN: I'm mindful that some have called into question 02:41.200 --> 02:46.200 our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out. 02:49.120 --> 02:54.120 But let me be clear. I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one. 02:56.720 --> 03:01.720 NICK SCHIFRIN: Preventing war requires diplomacy. In Moscow, U.S. Ambassador 03:02.240 --> 03:06.560 John Sullivan visited the Foreign Ministry to receive a new Russian document that said, 03:06.560 --> 03:11.040 "We welcome the readiness of the United States for appropriate consultations," a 03:11.040 --> 03:16.040 reference to U.S. offers to discuss arms control, military exercises, and missile deployments. 03:16.480 --> 03:21.480 But the document added: "This work cannot replace the settlement of key problems." That's 03:21.520 --> 03:26.520 a reference to Russian demands already rejected, that NATO refrain from any further enlargement, 03:26.800 --> 03:31.800 including Ukraine, roll back to before NATO expanded in the late 1990s to former Soviet 03:32.320 --> 03:36.640 satellites and states, and pledge not to deploy missiles near Russia's borders. 03:37.200 --> 03:39.600 Moscow also acknowledged today that, last week, 03:39.600 --> 03:43.440 it kicked out deputy U.S. Chief of Mission Bart Gorman, the embassy's number two. 03:44.560 --> 03:48.560 But, this morning, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said there's still room for diplomacy. 03:48.560 --> 03:50.160 SERGEY LAVROV, Russian Foreign Minister (through translator): 03:50.160 --> 03:53.520 We will continue talks on all aspects of our proposals. 03:53.520 --> 03:55.280 NICK SCHIFRIN: 03:55.280 --> 04:00.080 And, for more, we're joined by Victoria Nuland, the undersecretary of state for political affairs. 04:00.080 --> 04:02.320 Victoria Nuland, welcome back to the "NewsHour." 04:02.320 --> 04:04.960 President Biden today said that Russia could launch 04:04.960 --> 04:07.680 war -- quote -- "within the next several days." 04:07.680 --> 04:09.520 What are you seeing that leads to that conclusion? 04:09.520 --> 04:11.920 VICTORIA NULAND, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs: 04:11.920 --> 04:16.920 Nick, as my secretary said at the United Nations today, we are seeing Russian forces not moving 04:19.680 --> 04:24.320 back from the front, but, in fact, moving forward, and more forces coming in every day. 04:24.320 --> 04:29.320 We're seeing them moving into ready positions. We are seeing Spetsnaz units 04:30.400 --> 04:35.400 at the ready. We're seeing large amounts of aviation, large amounts of naval power surrounding 04:36.160 --> 04:41.160 Ukraine. And we are starting to see the kinds of pretexts that the secretary was warning about 04:41.920 --> 04:46.920 today, including the bombing of the kindergarten, unbelievable, by Russia-backed separatists today. 04:49.400 --> 04:54.400 NICK SCHIFRIN: On the number of pretexts that the secretary of state listed that we heard in 04:54.800 --> 04:59.800 our piece, one caught our eye. He said that Russia could use chemical weapons as a pretext for war. 05:01.120 --> 05:02.240 What is your evidence for that? 05:02.240 --> 05:07.240 VICTORIA NULAND: Well, these are the kinds of things that Russia is predicting that 05:08.080 --> 05:12.000 the Ukrainians would do. And this is a tried-and-true Russia technique, 05:12.000 --> 05:16.880 accuse the other guy of doing exactly what you, yourself, are planning to do. 05:16.880 --> 05:21.880 Now, whether they would actually be as brutal as to use chemical weapons or just make it look like 05:24.000 --> 05:28.960 the chemical weapons had been used, that is one of the pretexts that we want to warn the world about, 05:29.520 --> 05:33.040 because it is in their playbook, and we could see it in the next couple of days. 05:33.040 --> 05:38.040 NICK SCHIFRIN: And, certainly, as I pointed out, R.T. has been talking about chemical weapons. 05:38.240 --> 05:42.720 But I think you have gotten this question before, and it is important to ask. Why should we trust 05:42.720 --> 05:47.360 U.S. intelligence when, of course, it has been wrong in the past? And, as you know, 05:47.360 --> 05:52.360 many Russian-Ukrainian experts who I talk to doubt that Putin would benefit or even be able 05:54.160 --> 05:56.640 to occupy Ukraine and conduct a regime change. 05:56.640 --> 05:58.400 VICTORIA NULAND: 05:58.400 --> 06:03.400 Well, Nick, as you know, we have been warning about these Russian military plans since November. 06:03.520 --> 06:08.520 We started warning when there were 50,000 troops around Ukraine's borders. And then our 06:08.560 --> 06:13.120 warnings got stronger when there were 100,000 troops around Ukraine's borders. And then, 06:13.120 --> 06:18.120 when they moved 30,000 troops through Belarus, we warned again. And now we're up to 150,000 troops, 06:19.120 --> 06:23.360 including very high-tech weapons, and, as I said, Spetsnaz forces. 06:24.240 --> 06:29.200 So we are depending, obviously, on our intelligence, but it is being 06:29.200 --> 06:32.320 borne out by what we're seeing on the ground, unfortunately. 06:32.320 --> 06:35.200 NICK SCHIFRIN: Spetsnaz, of course, the Russian 06:35.200 --> 06:39.680 special operations forces that we have seen in Ukraine in the past. 06:40.240 --> 06:43.600 And just to put a point on this, of course, we do hear that the Russians 06:43.600 --> 06:48.600 say that they're going to end exercises in the Black Sea and in Belarus in the 06:49.280 --> 06:53.600 next few days. Is that the critical moment? Is that what you're fearing, that those Russian 06:53.600 --> 06:57.920 troops won't actually end those exercises, and instead will be used for an invasion? 06:57.920 --> 07:00.480 VICTORIA NULAND: Absolutely, Nick. 07:01.040 --> 07:06.040 As Secretary Blinken said today, they have everything in theater ready to go. 07:06.400 --> 07:11.400 And if they want to prove to the world that that is not their intention, they can see unequivocally 07:11.440 --> 07:16.440 that they have no intention of invading Ukraine, and they can begin pulling back those forces, 07:17.040 --> 07:21.120 those aircraft, those ships, and come to the diplomatic table. 07:21.120 --> 07:25.680 NICK SCHIFRIN: On the diplomatic table, are there off-ramps? 07:25.680 --> 07:28.960 Russia delivered a letter today. We reported a little bit 07:28.960 --> 07:33.440 about what it said. Is it, do you believe, an opening for diplomacy? And has 07:33.440 --> 07:38.440 Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed to meet Secretary Blinken, as Blinken invited him to, next week? 07:38.800 --> 07:43.800 VICTORIA NULAND: We have not yet had a response to Secretary Blinken's offer of 07:45.360 --> 07:50.360 this morning to Secretary Lavrov, to Minister Lavrov, to meet anywhere of his choosing 07:51.440 --> 07:54.240 in Europe next week. We hope he will accept that. 07:55.200 --> 08:00.200 There is grounds, both in the U.S. proposal and in the Russian proposal, for us to work seriously 08:02.080 --> 08:07.080 on arms control, on military deconfliction, on restraints. The Russians, in fact, 08:08.080 --> 08:13.080 in their document today, said that they wanted to talk about some of these things, particularly 08:13.760 --> 08:18.760 intermediate-range nuclear weapons and short-range nuclear weapons and missile defenses. 08:19.440 --> 08:24.320 So, let's come to the diplomatic table and talk. And let's pull back forces from Ukraine. 08:24.320 --> 08:28.480 NICK SCHIFRIN: It's hard to read some of these messages. They are mixed. 08:28.480 --> 08:32.960 While the letter did say that they wanted to talk about those topics, at the same time, it 08:32.960 --> 08:37.960 said that the U.S. had not responded to positively the core demand about NATO's future and Ukraine's 08:39.840 --> 08:44.240 future. So, bottom line, do you believe that that letter is an opening to diplomacy or not? 08:44.240 --> 08:48.880 VICTORIA NULAND: Nick, I believe that the United States and our allies 08:48.880 --> 08:53.880 have to take every opening we possibly can to try to get the Russians to the table 08:54.320 --> 08:59.320 and to try to avert a war that will be incredibly bloody for Ukraine, for Russia, 09:01.120 --> 09:06.120 incredibly dangerous for Europe, for peace and security around the world, and would really 09:06.480 --> 09:11.480 draw new dividing lines like we haven't seen since I was young and you were even younger. 09:11.760 --> 09:13.040 So, we have to try 09:13.760 --> 09:18.560 to get Russia back to the diplomatic table. But, as you said at the beginning of your segment here, 09:19.360 --> 09:24.360 a lot of Russia's unacceptable demands remain. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try talking and try 09:25.840 --> 09:30.840 closing the gaps. But they have to de-escalate if they're serious about diplomacy, rather than war. 09:31.280 --> 09:36.280 NICK SCHIFRIN: Washington especially and London behind it have been very aggressive at releasing 09:38.080 --> 09:41.120 Russian military assessments, Russian military plans. 09:41.680 --> 09:45.360 Do you believe that can make Putin sweat, change his calculus? 09:45.920 --> 09:50.240 Because there's not a lot of history of Putin changing his behavior after being called out. 09:50.240 --> 09:55.240 VICTORIA NULAND: Well, as you know, Nick, Putin loves the element of surprise. 09:56.160 --> 09:59.760 That's what he was able to achieve when he jumped into Crimea 10:00.320 --> 10:05.320 in 2014 and some of his other moves the last time we saw him escalate in Ukraine. 10:07.600 --> 10:12.160 So what we have tried to do here is not only remove from 10:12.160 --> 10:16.480 his toolkit the element of surprise, make sure that the Ukrainians and our 10:16.480 --> 10:20.720 allies and partners are ready, but also that the international community 10:20.720 --> 10:25.720 sees this bag of dirty tricks that he and the Kremlin have used so often and recognizes them. 10:27.440 --> 10:32.440 Today's example was a prime one, where, when the kindergarten was hit with those awful pictures, 10:33.600 --> 10:38.600 definitely, based on the trajectory of the missiles, by Russian proxies in the Donbass, 10:41.200 --> 10:44.320 they were unable to succeed in gaining traction 10:44.320 --> 10:47.280 that this came from the Ukrainians because we had prepared people. 10:47.280 --> 10:52.280 So we will continue to do that. And, unfortunately, we believe that our intelligence 10:53.520 --> 10:58.160 is being borne out here. But there is still time for diplomacy. That is our message today. 10:58.160 --> 11:01.200 NICK SCHIFRIN: Victoria Nuland, thank you very much. 11:01.200 --> 11:06.200 VICTORIA NULAND: Thank you, Nick.