JUDY WOODRUFF: War in Ukraine
could come within days,
President Biden said today, as
artillery that Ukraine blamed
on Russian-backed separatists
hit a kindergarten in the eastern part
of the country, and as a tense standoff
between the West and Russia
came to a point in the United
Nations Security Council.
More than 150,000 Russian troops remain
massed tonight on the borders of Ukraine.
Nick Schifrin again starts our coverage.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Near the line of
contact between the Ukrainian
military and Russian-backed
separatists, this morning, a shell pierced
the wall of a kindergarten classroom that,
on Tuesday, had been full of
5-year-olds and their teachers.
This morning, they fled from
what the Ukrainian government
called separatist shelling.
The U.S. fears a Russian attack
like this could be the first
shot fired in a wider war
that's about to start.
JOE BIDEN, President of the United
States: We have reason to believe
that they are engaged in a false flag
operation to have an excuse to go in.
QUESTION: Is your sense that
this is going to happen now?
JOE BIDEN: Yes. Not my sense is, it will
happen within the next several days.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Secretary of
State Antony Blinken made a
last-minute visit to New York
to reveal new intelligence about
a possible Russian pretext.
ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of
State: It could be a fabricated,
so-called terrorist bombing
inside Russia, the invented
discovery of a mass grave, a staged
drone strike against civilians,
or a fake, even a real attack
using chemical weapons.
Russia may describe this event as
ethnic cleansing or a genocide.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Indeed, ahead of
the meeting, Russia delivered
to the Security Council what it
called a joint project with the
news channel R.T. about -- quote
-- "war crimes" in Eastern Ukraine.
R.T., formerly known as Russia Today,
has already been publishing stories
about British-trained -- quote
- - "saboteurs" planning attacks,
and American mercenaries preparing
a -- quote - - "provocation"
using chemical weapons.
Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister
Sergey Vershinin blamed
today's violence on Ukraine.
SERGEY VERSHININ, Russian Deputy
Foreign Affairs Minister (through
translator): People for many
years have been subject to
shelling by the Ukrainian army,
and that has continued today.
NICK SCHIFRIN: But U.S. officials say it's
the Russian army that continues shelling
in massive exercises in Belarus.
Russia says it's withdrawing some
troops, but senior U.S. officials
say the number of Russian
troops increased by 7,000, and
they are poised for invasion.
British intelligence even
tweeted what it called
Russia's possible axis of
invasion on seven fronts.
COLIN POWELL, Former U.S.
Secretary of State: Saddam
Hussein and his regime have
made no effort, no effort.
NICK SCHIFRIN: And 19 years after
one of Blinken's predecessors gave a
speech based on false intelligence,
Blinken embraced the comparison.
ANTONY BLINKEN: I'm mindful that
some have called into question
our information, recalling previous
instances where intelligence
ultimately did not bear out.
But let me be clear. I am here today
not to start a war, but to prevent one.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Preventing war requires
diplomacy. In Moscow, U.S. Ambassador
John Sullivan visited the
Foreign Ministry to receive a
new Russian document that said,
"We welcome the readiness of the United
States for appropriate consultations," a
reference to U.S. offers to
discuss arms control, military
exercises, and missile deployments.
But the document added: "This
work cannot replace the settlement
of key problems." That's
a reference to Russian demands
already rejected, that NATO refrain
from any further enlargement,
including Ukraine, roll back
to before NATO expanded in the
late 1990s to former Soviet
satellites and states, and pledge not to
deploy missiles near Russia's borders.
Moscow also acknowledged
today that, last week,
it kicked out deputy U.S. Chief of Mission
Bart Gorman, the embassy's number two.
But, this morning, Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov said
there's still room for diplomacy.
SERGEY LAVROV, Russian Foreign
Minister (through translator):
We will continue talks on
all aspects of our proposals.
NICK SCHIFRIN:
And, for more, we're joined by
Victoria Nuland, the undersecretary
of state for political affairs.
Victoria Nuland, welcome
back to the "NewsHour."
President Biden today said
that Russia could launch
war -- quote -- "within
the next several days."
What are you seeing that
leads to that conclusion?
VICTORIA NULAND, U.S. Undersecretary
of State for Political Affairs:
Nick, as my secretary said at
the United Nations today, we are
seeing Russian forces not moving
back from the front, but, in
fact, moving forward, and more
forces coming in every day.
We're seeing them moving into ready
positions. We are seeing Spetsnaz units
at the ready. We're seeing
large amounts of aviation, large
amounts of naval power surrounding
Ukraine. And we are starting to
see the kinds of pretexts that
the secretary was warning about
today, including the bombing of
the kindergarten, unbelievable, by
Russia-backed separatists today.
NICK SCHIFRIN: On the number of
pretexts that the secretary of
state listed that we heard in
our piece, one caught our eye. He
said that Russia could use chemical
weapons as a pretext for war.
What is your evidence for that?
VICTORIA NULAND: Well, these are the kinds
of things that Russia is predicting that
the Ukrainians would do. And this is
a tried-and-true Russia technique,
accuse the other guy of doing exactly
what you, yourself, are planning to do.
Now, whether they would actually
be as brutal as to use chemical
weapons or just make it look like
the chemical weapons had been used,
that is one of the pretexts that
we want to warn the world about,
because it is in their playbook, and we
could see it in the next couple of days.
NICK SCHIFRIN: And, certainly,
as I pointed out, R.T. has been
talking about chemical weapons.
But I think you have gotten this
question before, and it is important
to ask. Why should we trust
U.S. intelligence when, of course, it has
been wrong in the past? And, as you know,
many Russian-Ukrainian experts
who I talk to doubt that Putin
would benefit or even be able
to occupy Ukraine and
conduct a regime change.
VICTORIA NULAND:
Well, Nick, as you know, we have
been warning about these Russian
military plans since November.
We started warning when there
were 50,000 troops around
Ukraine's borders. And then our
warnings got stronger when
there were 100,000 troops around
Ukraine's borders. And then,
when they moved 30,000 troops
through Belarus, we warned again.
And now we're up to 150,000 troops,
including very high-tech weapons,
and, as I said, Spetsnaz forces.
So we are depending, obviously, on
our intelligence, but it is being
borne out by what we're seeing
on the ground, unfortunately.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Spetsnaz,
of course, the Russian
special operations forces that we
have seen in Ukraine in the past.
And just to put a point on this, of
course, we do hear that the Russians
say that they're going to end exercises
in the Black Sea and in Belarus in the
next few days. Is that the
critical moment? Is that what
you're fearing, that those Russian
troops won't actually end those exercises,
and instead will be used for an invasion?
VICTORIA NULAND: Absolutely, Nick.
As Secretary Blinken said today, they
have everything in theater ready to go.
And if they want to prove to
the world that that is not their
intention, they can see unequivocally
that they have no intention of
invading Ukraine, and they can
begin pulling back those forces,
those aircraft, those ships, and
come to the diplomatic table.
NICK SCHIFRIN: On the diplomatic
table, are there off-ramps?
Russia delivered a letter
today. We reported a little bit
about what it said. Is it, do you
believe, an opening for diplomacy? And has
Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed
to meet Secretary Blinken, as
Blinken invited him to, next week?
VICTORIA NULAND: We have not yet had a
response to Secretary Blinken's offer of
this morning to Secretary
Lavrov, to Minister Lavrov, to
meet anywhere of his choosing
in Europe next week. We
hope he will accept that.
There is grounds, both in the
U.S. proposal and in the Russian
proposal, for us to work seriously
on arms control, on military
deconfliction, on restraints.
The Russians, in fact,
in their document today, said
that they wanted to talk about
some of these things, particularly
intermediate-range nuclear
weapons and short-range nuclear
weapons and missile defenses.
So, let's come to the diplomatic
table and talk. And let's
pull back forces from Ukraine.
NICK SCHIFRIN: It's hard to read some
of these messages. They are mixed.
While the letter did say that
they wanted to talk about those
topics, at the same time, it
said that the U.S. had not responded
to positively the core demand
about NATO's future and Ukraine's
future. So, bottom line, do you
believe that that letter is an
opening to diplomacy or not?
VICTORIA NULAND: Nick, I believe
that the United States and our allies
have to take every opening we possibly can
to try to get the Russians to the table
and to try to avert a war that will be
incredibly bloody for Ukraine, for Russia,
incredibly dangerous for Europe,
for peace and security around
the world, and would really
draw new dividing lines like
we haven't seen since I was
young and you were even younger.
So, we have to try
to get Russia back to the diplomatic
table. But, as you said at the
beginning of your segment here,
a lot of Russia's unacceptable
demands remain. But that doesn't
mean we shouldn't try talking and try
closing the gaps. But they have
to de-escalate if they're serious
about diplomacy, rather than war.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Washington especially
and London behind it have been
very aggressive at releasing
Russian military assessments,
Russian military plans.
Do you believe that can make
Putin sweat, change his calculus?
Because there's not a lot of
history of Putin changing his
behavior after being called out.
VICTORIA NULAND: Well, as you know, Nick,
Putin loves the element of surprise.
That's what he was able to
achieve when he jumped into Crimea
in 2014 and some of his other moves the
last time we saw him escalate in Ukraine.
So what we have tried to do
here is not only remove from
his toolkit the element of surprise,
make sure that the Ukrainians and our
allies and partners are ready, but
also that the international community
sees this bag of dirty tricks
that he and the Kremlin have used
so often and recognizes them.
Today's example was a prime one,
where, when the kindergarten was
hit with those awful pictures,
definitely, based on the
trajectory of the missiles, by
Russian proxies in the Donbass,
they were unable to
succeed in gaining traction
that this came from the Ukrainians
because we had prepared people.
So we will continue to do
that. And, unfortunately, we
believe that our intelligence
is being borne out here. But
there is still time for diplomacy.
That is our message today.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Victoria
Nuland, thank you very much.
VICTORIA NULAND: Thank you, Nick.