1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,600 JUDY WOODRUFF: War in Ukraine could come within days, 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:08,600 President Biden said today, as artillery that Ukraine blamed on Russian-backed separatists 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:13,760 hit a kindergarten in the eastern part of the country, and as a tense standoff 4 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:18,560 between the West and Russia came to a point in the United Nations Security Council. 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:23,560 More than 150,000 Russian troops remain massed tonight on the borders of Ukraine. 6 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:26,400 Nick Schifrin again starts our coverage. 7 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:31,400 NICK SCHIFRIN: Near the line of contact between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed 8 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:36,640 separatists, this morning, a shell pierced the wall of a kindergarten classroom that, 9 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,280 on Tuesday, had been full of 5-year-olds and their teachers. 10 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,800 This morning, they fled from what the Ukrainian government called separatist shelling. 11 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,920 The U.S. fears a Russian attack like this could be the first 12 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,800 shot fired in a wider war that's about to start. 13 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:52,480 JOE BIDEN, President of the United States: We have reason to believe 14 00:00:52,480 --> 00:00:57,480 that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. 15 00:00:57,640 --> 00:00:59,920 QUESTION: Is your sense that this is going to happen now? 16 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:04,400 JOE BIDEN: Yes. Not my sense is, it will happen within the next several days. 17 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:08,640 NICK SCHIFRIN: Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a last-minute visit to New York 18 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,840 to reveal new intelligence about a possible Russian pretext. 19 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,040 ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of State: It could be a fabricated, so-called terrorist bombing 20 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:20,040 inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, 21 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:27,480 or a fake, even a real attack using chemical weapons. 22 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:33,040 Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide. 23 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,560 NICK SCHIFRIN: Indeed, ahead of the meeting, Russia delivered to the Security Council what it 24 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:41,560 called a joint project with the news channel R.T. about -- quote -- "war crimes" in Eastern Ukraine. 25 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,320 R.T., formerly known as Russia Today, has already been publishing stories 26 00:01:46,320 --> 00:01:49,600 about British-trained -- quote - - "saboteurs" planning attacks, 27 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:54,240 and American mercenaries preparing a -- quote - - "provocation" using chemical weapons. 28 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,560 Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Vershinin blamed today's violence on Ukraine. 29 00:01:58,560 --> 00:01:59,680 SERGEY VERSHININ, Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister (through translator): People for many 30 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,680 years have been subject to shelling by the Ukrainian army, and that has continued today. 31 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,360 NICK SCHIFRIN: But U.S. officials say it's the Russian army that continues shelling 32 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:14,360 in massive exercises in Belarus. Russia says it's withdrawing some troops, but senior U.S. officials 33 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:20,440 say the number of Russian troops increased by 7,000, and they are poised for invasion. 34 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,280 British intelligence even tweeted what it called 35 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,560 Russia's possible axis of invasion on seven fronts. 36 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:27,360 COLIN POWELL, Former U.S. Secretary of State: Saddam 37 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:30,640 Hussein and his regime have made no effort, no effort. 38 00:02:30,640 --> 00:02:34,080 NICK SCHIFRIN: And 19 years after one of Blinken's predecessors gave a 39 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,760 speech based on false intelligence, Blinken embraced the comparison. 40 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,200 ANTONY BLINKEN: I'm mindful that some have called into question 41 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:46,200 our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out. 42 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:54,120 But let me be clear. I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one. 43 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,720 NICK SCHIFRIN: Preventing war requires diplomacy. In Moscow, U.S. Ambassador 44 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,560 John Sullivan visited the Foreign Ministry to receive a new Russian document that said, 45 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:11,040 "We welcome the readiness of the United States for appropriate consultations," a 46 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:16,040 reference to U.S. offers to discuss arms control, military exercises, and missile deployments. 47 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:21,480 But the document added: "This work cannot replace the settlement of key problems." That's 48 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:26,520 a reference to Russian demands already rejected, that NATO refrain from any further enlargement, 49 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:31,800 including Ukraine, roll back to before NATO expanded in the late 1990s to former Soviet 50 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:36,640 satellites and states, and pledge not to deploy missiles near Russia's borders. 51 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,600 Moscow also acknowledged today that, last week, 52 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,440 it kicked out deputy U.S. Chief of Mission Bart Gorman, the embassy's number two. 53 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:48,560 But, this morning, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said there's still room for diplomacy. 54 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,160 SERGEY LAVROV, Russian Foreign Minister (through translator): 55 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,520 We will continue talks on all aspects of our proposals. 56 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,280 NICK SCHIFRIN: 57 00:03:55,280 --> 00:04:00,080 And, for more, we're joined by Victoria Nuland, the undersecretary of state for political affairs. 58 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,320 Victoria Nuland, welcome back to the "NewsHour." 59 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,960 President Biden today said that Russia could launch 60 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,680 war -- quote -- "within the next several days." 61 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:09,520 What are you seeing that leads to that conclusion? 62 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,920 VICTORIA NULAND, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs: 63 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:16,920 Nick, as my secretary said at the United Nations today, we are seeing Russian forces not moving 64 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,320 back from the front, but, in fact, moving forward, and more forces coming in every day. 65 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:29,320 We're seeing them moving into ready positions. We are seeing Spetsnaz units 66 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:35,400 at the ready. We're seeing large amounts of aviation, large amounts of naval power surrounding 67 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:41,160 Ukraine. And we are starting to see the kinds of pretexts that the secretary was warning about 68 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:46,920 today, including the bombing of the kindergarten, unbelievable, by Russia-backed separatists today. 69 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:54,400 NICK SCHIFRIN: On the number of pretexts that the secretary of state listed that we heard in 70 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:59,800 our piece, one caught our eye. He said that Russia could use chemical weapons as a pretext for war. 71 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:02,240 What is your evidence for that? 72 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:07,240 VICTORIA NULAND: Well, these are the kinds of things that Russia is predicting that 73 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:12,000 the Ukrainians would do. And this is a tried-and-true Russia technique, 74 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:16,880 accuse the other guy of doing exactly what you, yourself, are planning to do. 75 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,880 Now, whether they would actually be as brutal as to use chemical weapons or just make it look like 76 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:28,960 the chemical weapons had been used, that is one of the pretexts that we want to warn the world about, 77 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,040 because it is in their playbook, and we could see it in the next couple of days. 78 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:38,040 NICK SCHIFRIN: And, certainly, as I pointed out, R.T. has been talking about chemical weapons. 79 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:42,720 But I think you have gotten this question before, and it is important to ask. Why should we trust 80 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:47,360 U.S. intelligence when, of course, it has been wrong in the past? And, as you know, 81 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:52,360 many Russian-Ukrainian experts who I talk to doubt that Putin would benefit or even be able 82 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,640 to occupy Ukraine and conduct a regime change. 83 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:58,400 VICTORIA NULAND: 84 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:03,400 Well, Nick, as you know, we have been warning about these Russian military plans since November. 85 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:08,520 We started warning when there were 50,000 troops around Ukraine's borders. And then our 86 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:13,120 warnings got stronger when there were 100,000 troops around Ukraine's borders. And then, 87 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:18,120 when they moved 30,000 troops through Belarus, we warned again. And now we're up to 150,000 troops, 88 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:23,360 including very high-tech weapons, and, as I said, Spetsnaz forces. 89 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:29,200 So we are depending, obviously, on our intelligence, but it is being 90 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,320 borne out by what we're seeing on the ground, unfortunately. 91 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,200 NICK SCHIFRIN: Spetsnaz, of course, the Russian 92 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:39,680 special operations forces that we have seen in Ukraine in the past. 93 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,600 And just to put a point on this, of course, we do hear that the Russians 94 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:48,600 say that they're going to end exercises in the Black Sea and in Belarus in the 95 00:06:49,280 --> 00:06:53,600 next few days. Is that the critical moment? Is that what you're fearing, that those Russian 96 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,920 troops won't actually end those exercises, and instead will be used for an invasion? 97 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,480 VICTORIA NULAND: Absolutely, Nick. 98 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:06,040 As Secretary Blinken said today, they have everything in theater ready to go. 99 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:11,400 And if they want to prove to the world that that is not their intention, they can see unequivocally 100 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:16,440 that they have no intention of invading Ukraine, and they can begin pulling back those forces, 101 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:21,120 those aircraft, those ships, and come to the diplomatic table. 102 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:25,680 NICK SCHIFRIN: On the diplomatic table, are there off-ramps? 103 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,960 Russia delivered a letter today. We reported a little bit 104 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:33,440 about what it said. Is it, do you believe, an opening for diplomacy? And has 105 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:38,440 Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed to meet Secretary Blinken, as Blinken invited him to, next week? 106 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:43,800 VICTORIA NULAND: We have not yet had a response to Secretary Blinken's offer of 107 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:50,360 this morning to Secretary Lavrov, to Minister Lavrov, to meet anywhere of his choosing 108 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,240 in Europe next week. We hope he will accept that. 109 00:07:55,200 --> 00:08:00,200 There is grounds, both in the U.S. proposal and in the Russian proposal, for us to work seriously 110 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:07,080 on arms control, on military deconfliction, on restraints. The Russians, in fact, 111 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:13,080 in their document today, said that they wanted to talk about some of these things, particularly 112 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:18,760 intermediate-range nuclear weapons and short-range nuclear weapons and missile defenses. 113 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:24,320 So, let's come to the diplomatic table and talk. And let's pull back forces from Ukraine. 114 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:28,480 NICK SCHIFRIN: It's hard to read some of these messages. They are mixed. 115 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:32,960 While the letter did say that they wanted to talk about those topics, at the same time, it 116 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:37,960 said that the U.S. had not responded to positively the core demand about NATO's future and Ukraine's 117 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:44,240 future. So, bottom line, do you believe that that letter is an opening to diplomacy or not? 118 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:48,880 VICTORIA NULAND: Nick, I believe that the United States and our allies 119 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,880 have to take every opening we possibly can to try to get the Russians to the table 120 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:59,320 and to try to avert a war that will be incredibly bloody for Ukraine, for Russia, 121 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:06,120 incredibly dangerous for Europe, for peace and security around the world, and would really 122 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:11,480 draw new dividing lines like we haven't seen since I was young and you were even younger. 123 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,040 So, we have to try 124 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:18,560 to get Russia back to the diplomatic table. But, as you said at the beginning of your segment here, 125 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:24,360 a lot of Russia's unacceptable demands remain. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try talking and try 126 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:30,840 closing the gaps. But they have to de-escalate if they're serious about diplomacy, rather than war. 127 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:36,280 NICK SCHIFRIN: Washington especially and London behind it have been very aggressive at releasing 128 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,120 Russian military assessments, Russian military plans. 129 00:09:41,680 --> 00:09:45,360 Do you believe that can make Putin sweat, change his calculus? 130 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:50,240 Because there's not a lot of history of Putin changing his behavior after being called out. 131 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:55,240 VICTORIA NULAND: Well, as you know, Nick, Putin loves the element of surprise. 132 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,760 That's what he was able to achieve when he jumped into Crimea 133 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:05,320 in 2014 and some of his other moves the last time we saw him escalate in Ukraine. 134 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:12,160 So what we have tried to do here is not only remove from 135 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:16,480 his toolkit the element of surprise, make sure that the Ukrainians and our 136 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,720 allies and partners are ready, but also that the international community 137 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:25,720 sees this bag of dirty tricks that he and the Kremlin have used so often and recognizes them. 138 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:32,440 Today's example was a prime one, where, when the kindergarten was hit with those awful pictures, 139 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,600 definitely, based on the trajectory of the missiles, by Russian proxies in the Donbass, 140 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,320 they were unable to succeed in gaining traction 141 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,280 that this came from the Ukrainians because we had prepared people. 142 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:52,280 So we will continue to do that. And, unfortunately, we believe that our intelligence 143 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:58,160 is being borne out here. But there is still time for diplomacy. That is our message today. 144 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,200 NICK SCHIFRIN: Victoria Nuland, thank you very much. 145 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:06,200 VICTORIA NULAND: Thank you, Nick.