WEBVTT 00:02.000 --> 00:05.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: In foreign policy, the past 10 years have seen both transformation and inertia. 00:07.933 --> 00:10.966 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% In many countries, the leaders have changed, but an authoritarian style of leadership hasn't. 00:12.400 --> 00:14.766 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% New powers are emerging, but are as opaque as ever. 00:14.766 --> 00:19.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And evolving domestic politics could lead to new relationships between the United States 00:19.633 --> 00:22.266 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% and its allies. 00:22.266 --> 00:25.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% "NewsHour"'s chief foreign affairs correspondent, Nick Schifrin, discusses this decade of discontent 00:27.066 --> 00:29.300 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% with three people who have shaped U.S. foreign policy. 00:29.300 --> 00:34.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: As we close the 2010s, we look back at this year and this decade in foreign 00:35.200 --> 00:37.300 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% affairs and global security. 00:37.300 --> 00:41.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% We will tackle a few main topics with an all-star cast, Michele Flournoy, deputy secretary of 00:43.200 --> 00:46.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% defense under President Obama and co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors, 00:48.366 --> 00:51.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a national security advisory firm, Rebeccah Heinrichs, a former congressional security 00:51.366 --> 00:56.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% aide, now senior fellow at The Hudson Institute, and, from London, Kori Schake, a National 00:56.333 --> 01:01.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Security Council staff director under President George W. Bush and soon to take over the Defense 01:02.633 --> 01:04.366 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Policy Program at the American Enterprise Institute. 01:04.366 --> 01:07.633 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% And thank you very much, and welcome all to the "NewsHour." 01:07.633 --> 01:12.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I want to set up our first topic with a small setup piece about the decade that began with 01:14.000 --> 01:18.733 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the Arab Spring and that ends with worldwide protests. 01:19.600 --> 01:21.733 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% From the streets of Cairo.. 01:21.733 --> 01:24.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% OMAR SULEIMAN, Former Egyptian Vice President (through translator): President Hosni Mubarak 01:24.500 --> 01:27.000 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% has decided to step down. 01:27.000 --> 01:30.966 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: ... and the demise of a dictator, to Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution, protesters 01:33.433 --> 01:37.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% across the Middle East began the decade standing up to U.S.-backed authoritarian leaders they 01:38.266 --> 01:40.333 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% considered corrupt. 01:40.333 --> 01:44.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% In Syria, young people called for a peaceful transition of power, but the country descended 01:44.300 --> 01:47.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% into chaos and a civil and proxy war. 01:47.333 --> 01:50.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The Arab Spring's legacy is decidedly mixed. 01:50.033 --> 01:55.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% The decade is ending the way it began, across the world, protesters objecting to what they 01:57.566 --> 02:00.933 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% call corruption, inequality, authoritarianism. 02:00.933 --> 02:05.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% From Bolivia and Chile, to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, popular protests are shaking established 02:08.900 --> 02:13.900 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% political systems, each fueled by local issues, but united in frustration and fueled by optimism 02:15.633 --> 02:19.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% that a better life is within reach in this decade of discontent. 02:19.733 --> 02:23.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Rebeccah Heinrichs, when you think back to the Arab Spring, when you think about the 02:23.900 --> 02:27.900 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% protests today, do you see stability replaced with chaos? 02:27.900 --> 02:30.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% REBECCAH HEINRICHS, The Hudson Institute: I do see stability replaced with chaos. 02:30.866 --> 02:35.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% I think, rather than the optimism that we had at the beginning of the Arab Spring, it's 02:35.000 --> 02:40.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% been replaced with, I think, realism and perhaps mixed with pessimism that democracy can win 02:41.966 --> 02:45.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the day simply by supporting the small groups of people who would rightly wish to overthrow 02:47.566 --> 02:51.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% an authoritarian, even if that authoritarian was more stable. 02:51.400 --> 02:54.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% So, now we had stable, authoritarian now replaced with chaos. 02:54.900 --> 02:59.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, that idea that the stability that authoritarianism perhaps 02:59.433 --> 03:04.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% kept has been lost a little bit, when you see U.S. policy going forward, do you believe 03:05.833 --> 03:07.833 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% that it should be more based on principle than it has been? 03:07.833 --> 03:09.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% KORI SCHAKE, Former National Security Council Staff Director: Absolutely it should be more 03:09.866 --> 03:11.966 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% based on principle. 03:11.966 --> 03:16.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% What people are protesting against in these societies is terrible governance. 03:17.466 --> 03:18.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% They want the rule of law. 03:18.833 --> 03:20.200 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% They want predictability. 03:20.200 --> 03:22.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% They want representative governance. 03:22.900 --> 03:27.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And the United States should always be on the side of people demanding human dignity 03:28.800 --> 03:30.866 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% and individual rights. 03:30.866 --> 03:33.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Michele Flournoy, is that realistic, that the U.S. can always be on that side? 03:33.933 --> 03:36.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% MICHELE FLOURNOY, Former Defense Department Official: Well, I do think we have to stand 03:36.200 --> 03:40.833 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% for democracy and freedom, better rights for people. 03:40.833 --> 03:42.033 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% I mean, that is who we are. 03:42.033 --> 03:43.033 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% That's our history. 03:43.033 --> 03:44.300 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Those are our values. 03:44.300 --> 03:46.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But the challenge is how to do that effectively. 03:46.966 --> 03:51.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I think the best programs are the ones that work long-term to invest in the foundations 03:51.600 --> 03:55.666 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% of civil society and sort of grow better governance over time. 03:55.666 --> 03:59.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Rebeccah Heinrichs, is that realistic, long-term investment? 03:59.000 --> 04:02.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Is the political appetite in the U.S. for a long-term investment in these countries? 04:02.666 --> 04:05.633 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% REBECCAH HEINRICHS: I think long-term is the only way it will work. 04:05.633 --> 04:09.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I do not think that we have the political appetite right now in the United States, especially 04:09.666 --> 04:14.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% after we see what's happening in Afghanistan, that our efforts there to create a democracy 04:16.266 --> 04:19.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% have not been met with fruit there that we wish after 18 years. 04:19.800 --> 04:23.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And so I think that this desire, which I think is good, for the United States, that we want 04:23.833 --> 04:28.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to see other countries share the freedoms that we -- that we have, that it almost cheapens 04:30.866 --> 04:33.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% democracy to think that we can simply, by helping or assisting in toppling these authoritarian 04:33.900 --> 04:37.333 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% governments, that democracy will simply rise and remain stable. 04:37.333 --> 04:39.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% That simply has not been proven out in reality. 04:39.566 --> 04:42.166 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, is that how you see it? 04:42.166 --> 04:46.766 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% And think about, for example, Saudi Arabia, an example where U.S. policy has been controversial, 04:48.233 --> 04:50.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% especially because of human rights violations. 04:50.200 --> 04:54.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% KORI SCHAKE: So, I see it slightly different than Rebeccah and Michele, in that I think 04:56.933 --> 05:01.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the United States very often takes too much responsibility for other people's outcomes. 05:03.433 --> 05:07.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And it's certainly true that programs that help build society and independent media and 05:08.733 --> 05:13.133 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% autonomous judiciaries, those are all good long-term programs. 05:15.100 --> 05:19.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But it's not good enough to tell people, in the next generation, you will have a government 05:20.533 --> 05:24.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that supports individual -- individual rights. 05:24.333 --> 05:29.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And it seems to me that the craftsmanship of governance is understanding when problems 05:31.266 --> 05:36.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% are ripe, that the amount of effort the United States is willing to put to create change 05:38.433 --> 05:40.500 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% matches the moment. 05:40.500 --> 05:44.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% It's our responsibility to judge when and how we can help people create positive change 05:44.800 --> 05:46.933 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% for themselves. 05:46.933 --> 05:49.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: One of the places around the world that people are creating their own opportunities 05:49.066 --> 05:51.000 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% certainly is Hong Kong. 05:51.000 --> 05:53.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And we have seen major protests there. 05:53.033 --> 05:57.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And so let's take a little look at a setup story about the state of China and U.S. affairs. 06:00.733 --> 06:05.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% In Beijing's Great Hall of the People, the people celebrate one man. 06:05.300 --> 06:10.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% After the removal of term limits, Xi Jinping can be president for life. 06:12.266 --> 06:15.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Under Xi, China has dramatically modernized its military and created outposts in the South 06:15.266 --> 06:19.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% China Sea, ignoring international law and U.S. objections. 06:19.833 --> 06:24.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% China has also expanded its influence abroad with the most expensive infrastructure project 06:24.433 --> 06:26.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% in history and advanced technology. 06:26.466 --> 06:29.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: My administration has taken the toughest ever 06:29.566 --> 06:32.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% action to confront China's trade abuses. 06:32.866 --> 06:37.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: But the Trump administration has confronted China, both on trade and international 06:39.900 --> 06:43.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% influence, and has called China a revisionist power whose goal is to displace U.S. preeminence. 06:44.466 --> 06:47.766 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Michele Flournoy, are the U.S. and China destined for conflict? 06:47.766 --> 06:51.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% MICHELE FLOURNOY: I certainly hope not, because we're both nuclear powers. 06:51.100 --> 06:56.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But we are certainly destined for a period of much greater competition, economically, 06:58.133 --> 07:02.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% technologically, for political influence around the world, and also potentially in the military 07:02.900 --> 07:04.966 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% sphere. 07:04.966 --> 07:08.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The best thing we can do is actually invest in the drivers of our competitiveness here 07:08.000 --> 07:12.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% at home, whether it's science and technology, research and development, higher education, 07:12.466 --> 07:14.700 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% 21st century infrastructure. 07:14.700 --> 07:19.366 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Why in the world do we not have a U.S. 5G industry, for example? 07:19.366 --> 07:22.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So, we are in for a longer competition. 07:22.933 --> 07:27.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I -- it would be a terrible failure of policy if that necessarily ends in conflict. 07:29.900 --> 07:32.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, part of confronting China has -- is the United States working 07:33.566 --> 07:35.600 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% with allies. 07:35.600 --> 07:36.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Do you believe President Trump is working with allies to confront China? 07:36.766 --> 07:38.700 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% KORI SCHAKE: No, I don't. 07:38.700 --> 07:43.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% In fact, I think he's squandering what is America's greatest strategic advantage in 07:43.400 --> 07:48.400 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% a competition with China, which is that we're historically pretty good at playing team sports. 07:50.433 --> 07:54.266 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% And China, because of its repression at home, its intimidation abroad, its refusal to play 07:56.266 --> 08:01.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% by the existing rules of the international order that have served the United States, 08:03.800 --> 08:06.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% other countries, including China, extraordinarily well, China's having a hard time getting anybody 08:07.666 --> 08:10.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% to support their view beyond Russia. 08:10.200 --> 08:15.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And President Trump, because he seems unable to prioritize which arguments he wants to 08:17.233 --> 08:21.533 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% have, he's arguing with everybody all at once, instead of making a common front with other 08:23.466 --> 08:27.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% countries who are nervous about China's behavior and who want American cooperation. 08:29.066 --> 08:31.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% NICK SCHIFRIN: Rebeccah Heinrichs, has President Trump squandered an opportunity, as we just 08:31.500 --> 08:32.966 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% heard? 08:32.966 --> 08:34.933 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% REBECCAH HEINRICHS: I actually see it quite differently. 08:34.933 --> 08:38.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I think this is where President Trump has the greatest strength in his administration, 08:38.900 --> 08:43.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% is that I really believe that, if it wasn't for this particular administration, the United 08:43.133 --> 08:46.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% States wouldn't be talking about great power competition with China in the way that we 08:46.566 --> 08:49.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% are, in the robust way that we are. 08:49.700 --> 08:53.133 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% You see -- you see themes all the way from senior administration officials talking about 08:53.133 --> 08:57.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% how China is not good at reciprocity, it's opaque, you can't count on them. 08:57.666 --> 09:01.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% You have got businesses now taking a second guess, looking -- taking a second look at 09:01.800 --> 09:04.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% maybe they don't want to invest so thoroughly in China. 09:04.533 --> 09:08.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So I'm optimistic about what the United States is doing now to set us on a good track for 09:08.133 --> 09:10.133 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% the years to come. 09:10.133 --> 09:14.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: The U.S.' oldest allies are in Europe, and there are tensions between 09:15.533 --> 09:17.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the United States and Europe and within Europe. 09:17.533 --> 09:20.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So let's take a look at a quick setup piece about the state of Europe, NATO and the U.S. 09:20.300 --> 09:25.300 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% Beyond the traditional staged photos at the NATO leaders meeting, the transatlantic alliance 09:26.466 --> 09:29.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is facing a crisis of identity and confidence. 09:29.466 --> 09:34.466 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% President Trump questions the alliance's foundation, emphasizing shared spending, not shared values. 09:36.400 --> 09:40.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% French President Emmanuel Macron says Trump has turned his back on NATO, and he recently 09:40.933 --> 09:45.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% called NATO brain-dead, in an attempt to shake up its strategic assumptions. 09:45.733 --> 09:48.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And Europe is facing its own shakeup. 09:48.733 --> 09:50.766 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) 09:50.766 --> 09:54.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson just won a big political mandate based 09:54.833 --> 09:59.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% on his pledge to, in his words, get Brexit done. 09:59.633 --> 10:02.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Rebeccah Heinrichs, should the U.S. have a tough conversation with Western Europe right 10:02.866 --> 10:04.900 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% now? 10:04.900 --> 10:07.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% REBECCAH HEINRICHS: I think that's exactly what we're in the middle of. 10:07.066 --> 10:09.166 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% I think, you know, all of the things that make so many people, I think, rightfully uncomfortable 10:09.166 --> 10:13.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% about President Trump, about his abrasive approach and the way he talks to people, many 10:13.200 --> 10:17.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of these things that President Trump has brought up and raised are true, in fact. 10:17.733 --> 10:22.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And, as a result, we do see NATO spending more on defense, committing more on collective 10:22.233 --> 10:24.200 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% security. 10:24.200 --> 10:26.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And then some of these other problems that he's raised, although they're not fixed, it's 10:26.266 --> 10:28.333 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% good that we're now addressing these head on. 10:28.333 --> 10:32.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, NATO in a better place after President Trump's term or terms 10:32.800 --> 10:34.033 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% are done? 10:34.033 --> 10:36.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% KORI SCHAKE: No, I don't think so. 10:36.066 --> 10:40.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NATO has underlying problems that the president has splashed a whole lot of attention to. 10:43.133 --> 10:48.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But I think the question for the administration is whether the president's engagement with 10:48.133 --> 10:51.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Europeans is going to solve those problems. 10:51.633 --> 10:53.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And it doesn't look to me like it is. 10:53.933 --> 10:58.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% It doesn't look to me like it's producing greater European commitment. 10:58.400 --> 11:03.366 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% It does look to me like it is scaring Europeans and encouraging our adversaries to question 11:05.666 --> 11:10.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the Article 5 guarantee that NATO allies make to each other, which is that an attack on 11:11.400 --> 11:13.900 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% one is an attack on all. 11:13.900 --> 11:17.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% So, the increased defense spending, including by the United States, doesn't compensate for 11:19.066 --> 11:21.566 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the anxiety and the questioning of our fundamental commitment. 11:21.566 --> 11:25.033 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% And that really is the result of the president's policies. 11:25.033 --> 11:27.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% NICK SCHIFRIN: Michele Flournoy, last word. 11:27.100 --> 11:31.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% This story isn't only about the tensions within the transatlantic alliance, but also when 11:31.666 --> 11:35.933 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% it comes to Turkey, who's in NATO, obviously, but also President Putin, who's about to celebrate 11:35.933 --> 11:37.600 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% his 20th year in power. 11:37.600 --> 11:39.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% MICHELE FLOURNOY: Yes, but the two are related. 11:39.966 --> 11:44.966 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% So I think the fact that we have our European allies questioning the U.S. commitment to 11:46.933 --> 11:50.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NATO more fundamentally than they have since NATO's founding, that has created an opening. 11:52.266 --> 11:57.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And it's to the delight of Vladimir Putin to be able to weaken NATO, to see dissension 11:59.233 --> 12:02.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% in NATO, and to start picking off allies like Turkey, say, hey, if you know you can't rely 12:04.766 --> 12:08.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% on the United States, you're not sure of the predictability of their policy, the reliability 12:08.133 --> 12:13.133 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% of their leadership, let me sell you some air defenses for you. 12:15.133 --> 12:18.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Sounds like a great deal, but that's a wonderful way to get in there and start dividing the 12:18.866 --> 12:20.766 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% alliance. 12:20.766 --> 12:24.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% NICK SCHIFRIN: Michele Flournoy, Rebeccah Heinrichs, Kori Schake, thanks to you all. 12:24.633 --> 12:27.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% AMNA NAWAZ: And what a decade it's been. 12:27.733 --> 12:32.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Online, you can watch our in-depth series on protest movements that broke out across 12:32.400 --> 12:37.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the globe this year, with a deeper look tonight at the unrest in Hong Kong. 12:37.266 --> 12:41.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% You can find that when you follow us on Instagram @NewsHour.