1 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:05,466 AMNA NAWAZ: In foreign policy, the past 10 years have seen both transformation and inertia. 2 00:00:07,933 --> 00:00:10,966 In many countries, the leaders have changed, but an authoritarian style of leadership hasn't. 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:14,766 New powers are emerging, but are as opaque as ever. 4 00:00:14,766 --> 00:00:19,633 And evolving domestic politics could lead to new relationships between the United States 5 00:00:19,633 --> 00:00:22,266 and its allies. 6 00:00:22,266 --> 00:00:25,633 "NewsHour"'s chief foreign affairs correspondent, Nick Schifrin, discusses this decade of discontent 7 00:00:27,066 --> 00:00:29,300 with three people who have shaped U.S. foreign policy. 8 00:00:29,300 --> 00:00:34,300 NICK SCHIFRIN: As we close the 2010s, we look back at this year and this decade in foreign 9 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:37,300 affairs and global security. 10 00:00:37,300 --> 00:00:41,133 We will tackle a few main topics with an all-star cast, Michele Flournoy, deputy secretary of 11 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,333 defense under President Obama and co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors, 12 00:00:48,366 --> 00:00:51,366 a national security advisory firm, Rebeccah Heinrichs, a former congressional security 13 00:00:51,366 --> 00:00:56,333 aide, now senior fellow at The Hudson Institute, and, from London, Kori Schake, a National 14 00:00:56,333 --> 00:01:01,300 Security Council staff director under President George W. Bush and soon to take over the Defense 15 00:01:02,633 --> 00:01:04,366 Policy Program at the American Enterprise Institute. 16 00:01:04,366 --> 00:01:07,633 And thank you very much, and welcome all to the "NewsHour." 17 00:01:07,633 --> 00:01:12,633 I want to set up our first topic with a small setup piece about the decade that began with 18 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,733 the Arab Spring and that ends with worldwide protests. 19 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,733 From the streets of Cairo.. 20 00:01:21,733 --> 00:01:24,500 OMAR SULEIMAN, Former Egyptian Vice President (through translator): President Hosni Mubarak 21 00:01:24,500 --> 00:01:27,000 has decided to step down. 22 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,966 NICK SCHIFRIN: ... and the demise of a dictator, to Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution, protesters 23 00:01:33,433 --> 00:01:37,533 across the Middle East began the decade standing up to U.S.-backed authoritarian leaders they 24 00:01:38,266 --> 00:01:40,333 considered corrupt. 25 00:01:40,333 --> 00:01:44,300 In Syria, young people called for a peaceful transition of power, but the country descended 26 00:01:44,300 --> 00:01:47,333 into chaos and a civil and proxy war. 27 00:01:47,333 --> 00:01:50,033 The Arab Spring's legacy is decidedly mixed. 28 00:01:50,033 --> 00:01:55,000 The decade is ending the way it began, across the world, protesters objecting to what they 29 00:01:57,566 --> 00:02:00,933 call corruption, inequality, authoritarianism. 30 00:02:00,933 --> 00:02:05,933 From Bolivia and Chile, to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, popular protests are shaking established 31 00:02:08,900 --> 00:02:13,900 political systems, each fueled by local issues, but united in frustration and fueled by optimism 32 00:02:15,633 --> 00:02:19,733 that a better life is within reach in this decade of discontent. 33 00:02:19,733 --> 00:02:23,900 Rebeccah Heinrichs, when you think back to the Arab Spring, when you think about the 34 00:02:23,900 --> 00:02:27,900 protests today, do you see stability replaced with chaos? 35 00:02:27,900 --> 00:02:30,866 REBECCAH HEINRICHS, The Hudson Institute: I do see stability replaced with chaos. 36 00:02:30,866 --> 00:02:35,000 I think, rather than the optimism that we had at the beginning of the Arab Spring, it's 37 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:40,000 been replaced with, I think, realism and perhaps mixed with pessimism that democracy can win 38 00:02:41,966 --> 00:02:45,400 the day simply by supporting the small groups of people who would rightly wish to overthrow 39 00:02:47,566 --> 00:02:51,400 an authoritarian, even if that authoritarian was more stable. 40 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,900 So, now we had stable, authoritarian now replaced with chaos. 41 00:02:54,900 --> 00:02:59,433 NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, that idea that the stability that authoritarianism perhaps 42 00:02:59,433 --> 00:03:04,400 kept has been lost a little bit, when you see U.S. policy going forward, do you believe 43 00:03:05,833 --> 00:03:07,833 that it should be more based on principle than it has been? 44 00:03:07,833 --> 00:03:09,866 KORI SCHAKE, Former National Security Council Staff Director: Absolutely it should be more 45 00:03:09,866 --> 00:03:11,966 based on principle. 46 00:03:11,966 --> 00:03:16,100 What people are protesting against in these societies is terrible governance. 47 00:03:17,466 --> 00:03:18,833 They want the rule of law. 48 00:03:18,833 --> 00:03:20,200 They want predictability. 49 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:22,900 They want representative governance. 50 00:03:22,900 --> 00:03:27,900 And the United States should always be on the side of people demanding human dignity 51 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:30,866 and individual rights. 52 00:03:30,866 --> 00:03:33,933 NICK SCHIFRIN: Michele Flournoy, is that realistic, that the U.S. can always be on that side? 53 00:03:33,933 --> 00:03:36,200 MICHELE FLOURNOY, Former Defense Department Official: Well, I do think we have to stand 54 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:40,833 for democracy and freedom, better rights for people. 55 00:03:40,833 --> 00:03:42,033 I mean, that is who we are. 56 00:03:42,033 --> 00:03:43,033 That's our history. 57 00:03:43,033 --> 00:03:44,300 Those are our values. 58 00:03:44,300 --> 00:03:46,966 But the challenge is how to do that effectively. 59 00:03:46,966 --> 00:03:51,600 I think the best programs are the ones that work long-term to invest in the foundations 60 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,666 of civil society and sort of grow better governance over time. 61 00:03:55,666 --> 00:03:59,000 NICK SCHIFRIN: Rebeccah Heinrichs, is that realistic, long-term investment? 62 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,666 Is the political appetite in the U.S. for a long-term investment in these countries? 63 00:04:02,666 --> 00:04:05,633 REBECCAH HEINRICHS: I think long-term is the only way it will work. 64 00:04:05,633 --> 00:04:09,666 I do not think that we have the political appetite right now in the United States, especially 65 00:04:09,666 --> 00:04:14,666 after we see what's happening in Afghanistan, that our efforts there to create a democracy 66 00:04:16,266 --> 00:04:19,800 have not been met with fruit there that we wish after 18 years. 67 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,833 And so I think that this desire, which I think is good, for the United States, that we want 68 00:04:23,833 --> 00:04:28,833 to see other countries share the freedoms that we -- that we have, that it almost cheapens 69 00:04:30,866 --> 00:04:33,900 democracy to think that we can simply, by helping or assisting in toppling these authoritarian 70 00:04:33,900 --> 00:04:37,333 governments, that democracy will simply rise and remain stable. 71 00:04:37,333 --> 00:04:39,566 That simply has not been proven out in reality. 72 00:04:39,566 --> 00:04:42,166 NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, is that how you see it? 73 00:04:42,166 --> 00:04:46,766 And think about, for example, Saudi Arabia, an example where U.S. policy has been controversial, 74 00:04:48,233 --> 00:04:50,200 especially because of human rights violations. 75 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:54,933 KORI SCHAKE: So, I see it slightly different than Rebeccah and Michele, in that I think 76 00:04:56,933 --> 00:05:01,533 the United States very often takes too much responsibility for other people's outcomes. 77 00:05:03,433 --> 00:05:07,300 And it's certainly true that programs that help build society and independent media and 78 00:05:08,733 --> 00:05:13,133 autonomous judiciaries, those are all good long-term programs. 79 00:05:15,100 --> 00:05:19,366 But it's not good enough to tell people, in the next generation, you will have a government 80 00:05:20,533 --> 00:05:24,333 that supports individual -- individual rights. 81 00:05:24,333 --> 00:05:29,333 And it seems to me that the craftsmanship of governance is understanding when problems 82 00:05:31,266 --> 00:05:36,200 are ripe, that the amount of effort the United States is willing to put to create change 83 00:05:38,433 --> 00:05:40,500 matches the moment. 84 00:05:40,500 --> 00:05:44,800 It's our responsibility to judge when and how we can help people create positive change 85 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,933 for themselves. 86 00:05:46,933 --> 00:05:49,066 NICK SCHIFRIN: One of the places around the world that people are creating their own opportunities 87 00:05:49,066 --> 00:05:51,000 certainly is Hong Kong. 88 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,033 And we have seen major protests there. 89 00:05:53,033 --> 00:05:57,700 And so let's take a little look at a setup story about the state of China and U.S. affairs. 90 00:06:00,733 --> 00:06:05,300 In Beijing's Great Hall of the People, the people celebrate one man. 91 00:06:05,300 --> 00:06:10,300 After the removal of term limits, Xi Jinping can be president for life. 92 00:06:12,266 --> 00:06:15,266 Under Xi, China has dramatically modernized its military and created outposts in the South 93 00:06:15,266 --> 00:06:19,833 China Sea, ignoring international law and U.S. objections. 94 00:06:19,833 --> 00:06:24,433 China has also expanded its influence abroad with the most expensive infrastructure project 95 00:06:24,433 --> 00:06:26,466 in history and advanced technology. 96 00:06:26,466 --> 00:06:29,566 DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: My administration has taken the toughest ever 97 00:06:29,566 --> 00:06:32,866 action to confront China's trade abuses. 98 00:06:32,866 --> 00:06:37,866 NICK SCHIFRIN: But the Trump administration has confronted China, both on trade and international 99 00:06:39,900 --> 00:06:43,033 influence, and has called China a revisionist power whose goal is to displace U.S. preeminence. 100 00:06:44,466 --> 00:06:47,766 Michele Flournoy, are the U.S. and China destined for conflict? 101 00:06:47,766 --> 00:06:51,100 MICHELE FLOURNOY: I certainly hope not, because we're both nuclear powers. 102 00:06:51,100 --> 00:06:56,100 But we are certainly destined for a period of much greater competition, economically, 103 00:06:58,133 --> 00:07:02,433 technologically, for political influence around the world, and also potentially in the military 104 00:07:02,900 --> 00:07:04,966 sphere. 105 00:07:04,966 --> 00:07:08,000 The best thing we can do is actually invest in the drivers of our competitiveness here 106 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:12,466 at home, whether it's science and technology, research and development, higher education, 107 00:07:12,466 --> 00:07:14,700 21st century infrastructure. 108 00:07:14,700 --> 00:07:19,366 Why in the world do we not have a U.S. 5G industry, for example? 109 00:07:19,366 --> 00:07:22,933 So, we are in for a longer competition. 110 00:07:22,933 --> 00:07:27,933 I -- it would be a terrible failure of policy if that necessarily ends in conflict. 111 00:07:29,900 --> 00:07:32,966 NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, part of confronting China has -- is the United States working 112 00:07:33,566 --> 00:07:35,600 with allies. 113 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:36,766 Do you believe President Trump is working with allies to confront China? 114 00:07:36,766 --> 00:07:38,700 KORI SCHAKE: No, I don't. 115 00:07:38,700 --> 00:07:43,400 In fact, I think he's squandering what is America's greatest strategic advantage in 116 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:48,400 a competition with China, which is that we're historically pretty good at playing team sports. 117 00:07:50,433 --> 00:07:54,266 And China, because of its repression at home, its intimidation abroad, its refusal to play 118 00:07:56,266 --> 00:08:01,266 by the existing rules of the international order that have served the United States, 119 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,533 other countries, including China, extraordinarily well, China's having a hard time getting anybody 120 00:08:07,666 --> 00:08:10,200 to support their view beyond Russia. 121 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:15,200 And President Trump, because he seems unable to prioritize which arguments he wants to 122 00:08:17,233 --> 00:08:21,533 have, he's arguing with everybody all at once, instead of making a common front with other 123 00:08:23,466 --> 00:08:27,000 countries who are nervous about China's behavior and who want American cooperation. 124 00:08:29,066 --> 00:08:31,500 NICK SCHIFRIN: Rebeccah Heinrichs, has President Trump squandered an opportunity, as we just 125 00:08:31,500 --> 00:08:32,966 heard? 126 00:08:32,966 --> 00:08:34,933 REBECCAH HEINRICHS: I actually see it quite differently. 127 00:08:34,933 --> 00:08:38,900 I think this is where President Trump has the greatest strength in his administration, 128 00:08:38,900 --> 00:08:43,133 is that I really believe that, if it wasn't for this particular administration, the United 129 00:08:43,133 --> 00:08:46,566 States wouldn't be talking about great power competition with China in the way that we 130 00:08:46,566 --> 00:08:49,700 are, in the robust way that we are. 131 00:08:49,700 --> 00:08:53,133 You see -- you see themes all the way from senior administration officials talking about 132 00:08:53,133 --> 00:08:57,666 how China is not good at reciprocity, it's opaque, you can't count on them. 133 00:08:57,666 --> 00:09:01,800 You have got businesses now taking a second guess, looking -- taking a second look at 134 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,533 maybe they don't want to invest so thoroughly in China. 135 00:09:04,533 --> 00:09:08,133 So I'm optimistic about what the United States is doing now to set us on a good track for 136 00:09:08,133 --> 00:09:10,133 the years to come. 137 00:09:10,133 --> 00:09:14,133 NICK SCHIFRIN: The U.S.' oldest allies are in Europe, and there are tensions between 138 00:09:15,533 --> 00:09:17,533 the United States and Europe and within Europe. 139 00:09:17,533 --> 00:09:20,300 So let's take a look at a quick setup piece about the state of Europe, NATO and the U.S. 140 00:09:20,300 --> 00:09:25,300 Beyond the traditional staged photos at the NATO leaders meeting, the transatlantic alliance 141 00:09:26,466 --> 00:09:29,466 is facing a crisis of identity and confidence. 142 00:09:29,466 --> 00:09:34,466 President Trump questions the alliance's foundation, emphasizing shared spending, not shared values. 143 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:40,933 French President Emmanuel Macron says Trump has turned his back on NATO, and he recently 144 00:09:40,933 --> 00:09:45,733 called NATO brain-dead, in an attempt to shake up its strategic assumptions. 145 00:09:45,733 --> 00:09:48,733 And Europe is facing its own shakeup. 146 00:09:48,733 --> 00:09:50,766 (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) 147 00:09:50,766 --> 00:09:54,833 NICK SCHIFRIN: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson just won a big political mandate based 148 00:09:54,833 --> 00:09:59,633 on his pledge to, in his words, get Brexit done. 149 00:09:59,633 --> 00:10:02,866 Rebeccah Heinrichs, should the U.S. have a tough conversation with Western Europe right 150 00:10:02,866 --> 00:10:04,900 now? 151 00:10:04,900 --> 00:10:07,066 REBECCAH HEINRICHS: I think that's exactly what we're in the middle of. 152 00:10:07,066 --> 00:10:09,166 I think, you know, all of the things that make so many people, I think, rightfully uncomfortable 153 00:10:09,166 --> 00:10:13,200 about President Trump, about his abrasive approach and the way he talks to people, many 154 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,733 of these things that President Trump has brought up and raised are true, in fact. 155 00:10:17,733 --> 00:10:22,233 And, as a result, we do see NATO spending more on defense, committing more on collective 156 00:10:22,233 --> 00:10:24,200 security. 157 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,266 And then some of these other problems that he's raised, although they're not fixed, it's 158 00:10:26,266 --> 00:10:28,333 good that we're now addressing these head on. 159 00:10:28,333 --> 00:10:32,800 NICK SCHIFRIN: Kori Schake, NATO in a better place after President Trump's term or terms 160 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:34,033 are done? 161 00:10:34,033 --> 00:10:36,066 KORI SCHAKE: No, I don't think so. 162 00:10:36,066 --> 00:10:40,200 NATO has underlying problems that the president has splashed a whole lot of attention to. 163 00:10:43,133 --> 00:10:48,133 But I think the question for the administration is whether the president's engagement with 164 00:10:48,133 --> 00:10:51,633 Europeans is going to solve those problems. 165 00:10:51,633 --> 00:10:53,933 And it doesn't look to me like it is. 166 00:10:53,933 --> 00:10:58,400 It doesn't look to me like it's producing greater European commitment. 167 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:03,366 It does look to me like it is scaring Europeans and encouraging our adversaries to question 168 00:11:05,666 --> 00:11:10,666 the Article 5 guarantee that NATO allies make to each other, which is that an attack on 169 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,900 one is an attack on all. 170 00:11:13,900 --> 00:11:17,633 So, the increased defense spending, including by the United States, doesn't compensate for 171 00:11:19,066 --> 00:11:21,566 the anxiety and the questioning of our fundamental commitment. 172 00:11:21,566 --> 00:11:25,033 And that really is the result of the president's policies. 173 00:11:25,033 --> 00:11:27,100 NICK SCHIFRIN: Michele Flournoy, last word. 174 00:11:27,100 --> 00:11:31,666 This story isn't only about the tensions within the transatlantic alliance, but also when 175 00:11:31,666 --> 00:11:35,933 it comes to Turkey, who's in NATO, obviously, but also President Putin, who's about to celebrate 176 00:11:35,933 --> 00:11:37,600 his 20th year in power. 177 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,966 MICHELE FLOURNOY: Yes, but the two are related. 178 00:11:39,966 --> 00:11:44,966 So I think the fact that we have our European allies questioning the U.S. commitment to 179 00:11:46,933 --> 00:11:50,266 NATO more fundamentally than they have since NATO's founding, that has created an opening. 180 00:11:52,266 --> 00:11:57,233 And it's to the delight of Vladimir Putin to be able to weaken NATO, to see dissension 181 00:11:59,233 --> 00:12:02,766 in NATO, and to start picking off allies like Turkey, say, hey, if you know you can't rely 182 00:12:04,766 --> 00:12:08,133 on the United States, you're not sure of the predictability of their policy, the reliability 183 00:12:08,133 --> 00:12:13,133 of their leadership, let me sell you some air defenses for you. 184 00:12:15,133 --> 00:12:18,233 Sounds like a great deal, but that's a wonderful way to get in there and start dividing the 185 00:12:18,866 --> 00:12:20,766 alliance. 186 00:12:20,766 --> 00:12:24,633 NICK SCHIFRIN: Michele Flournoy, Rebeccah Heinrichs, Kori Schake, thanks to you all. 187 00:12:24,633 --> 00:12:27,733 AMNA NAWAZ: And what a decade it's been. 188 00:12:27,733 --> 00:12:32,400 Online, you can watch our in-depth series on protest movements that broke out across 189 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:37,266 the globe this year, with a deeper look tonight at the unrest in Hong Kong. 190 00:12:37,266 --> 00:12:41,733 You can find that when you follow us on Instagram @NewsHour.