1 00:00:02,500 --> 00:00:05,266 JUDY WOODRUFF: As President Trump faces the political fallout from his emergency declaration, 2 00:00:07,333 --> 00:00:11,033 Democrats eager to take him on in 2020 hit the road, courting voters in the early nominating 3 00:00:11,633 --> 00:00:13,600 contests. 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,500 For analysis on all this and more, I'm joined by our Politics Monday team, Amy Walter of 5 00:00:19,466 --> 00:00:22,566 The Cook Political Report and the host of the podcast "Politics With Amy Walter" on 6 00:00:23,433 --> 00:00:27,266 WNYC, and Tamara Keith of NPR. 7 00:00:27,266 --> 00:00:28,866 Hello to both of you. 8 00:00:28,866 --> 00:00:31,400 So, there's a lot to talk about. 9 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:35,333 We have just been talking about, though, the emergency, the national emergency that President 10 00:00:36,233 --> 00:00:37,700 Trump declared on Friday. 11 00:00:37,700 --> 00:00:40,000 We are out with a poll just done over the weekend. 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,966 This is the "NewsHour," NPR and Marist College, Amy, and it shows -- and we're showing the 13 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:51,200 - - everybody watching the results -- among Republicans, very popular, not surprising, 14 00:00:52,666 --> 00:00:54,600 85 percent like what the president did, support it. 15 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,500 Among Democrats, unpopular, only 6 percent. 16 00:00:57,500 --> 00:00:59,900 But among independents, it's also not a majority, 33 percent. 17 00:00:59,900 --> 00:01:02,000 AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Right. 18 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,166 JUDY WOODRUFF: What does this tell us about what the president did and what the public 19 00:01:05,166 --> 00:01:07,066 thinks? 20 00:01:07,066 --> 00:01:09,166 AMY WALTER: Well, the president has had a challenge for some time now. 21 00:01:09,166 --> 00:01:12,633 First of all, the facts themselves don't support the claim that there is an emergency on the 22 00:01:12,633 --> 00:01:16,300 border, whether it's the number of people being apprehended of people who are trying 23 00:01:16,300 --> 00:01:20,866 to cross illegally, whether it's where drugs are coming in, normally at ports of entry. 24 00:01:20,866 --> 00:01:25,833 They're not being taken at other border crossings. 25 00:01:25,833 --> 00:01:30,833 So the facts have been pretty well set that there's not an emergency there at the border. 26 00:01:33,133 --> 00:01:36,600 And the president has been trying to make the case now for some time that there is indeed 27 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:37,600 an emergency. 28 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,733 He's had an Oval Office address,. 29 00:01:39,733 --> 00:01:43,300 he's been in the Rose Garden, he used the State of the Union address to put these -- this 30 00:01:43,300 --> 00:01:45,433 idea forward. 31 00:01:45,433 --> 00:01:49,466 And what now you see is 58 percent of Americans don't believe that there is a crisis at the 32 00:01:49,466 --> 00:01:51,633 border. 33 00:01:51,633 --> 00:01:55,233 The only folks who seem to really be supporting the president's claim that he has authority 34 00:01:55,233 --> 00:02:00,266 to do this emergency declaration or that there is an actual crisis, not surprisingly, are 35 00:02:02,300 --> 00:02:04,900 Republicans, which tells you all you need to know where this is going to head up in 36 00:02:04,900 --> 00:02:09,400 Congress, which is that most likely the Democrats in the House will support a resolution saying 37 00:02:11,866 --> 00:02:16,633 they don't agree with the emergency declaration, and Republicans in the Senate will stick with 38 00:02:16,633 --> 00:02:18,666 the president. 39 00:02:18,666 --> 00:02:20,733 JUDY WOODRUFF: Republicans are going to stick with him, Tam, regardless. 40 00:02:20,733 --> 00:02:24,066 TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Well, most likely, though there have been a few, 41 00:02:24,066 --> 00:02:29,066 a handful of Republicans who, in the Senate, have said that they really don't support this 42 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:30,600 emergency action. 43 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,666 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 44 00:02:32,666 --> 00:02:35,966 TAMARA KEITH: What is interesting here is that law from 1976 that you just spent a good 45 00:02:35,966 --> 00:02:39,533 long segment talking about, it includes a fast-track authority. 46 00:02:39,533 --> 00:02:44,533 So the House takes up this bill to terminate the president's emergency order, which we 47 00:02:46,133 --> 00:02:47,400 fully expect. 48 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,400 It will pass the Democratic House. 49 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,766 It will go to the Senate, and there's nothing Mitch McConnell can do to avoid a vote. 50 00:02:53,766 --> 00:02:54,766 It has to get a vote. 51 00:02:54,766 --> 00:02:56,900 JUDY WOODRUFF: Huh. 52 00:02:56,900 --> 00:03:00,000 TAMARA KEITH: And so what it does is, it -- it does require Republicans who, leading up to 53 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:04,533 this, said, wow, this would be terrible, please don't do it, don't put us in this position, 54 00:03:04,533 --> 00:03:09,533 it puts them in that position of having to decide whether they sort of believe in the 55 00:03:11,533 --> 00:03:16,066 Article I role of Congress or whether they want to support their Republican president. 56 00:03:18,066 --> 00:03:20,400 AMY WALTER: And many of them argued during the Obama presidency that he was overreaching. 57 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,466 JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes. 58 00:03:22,466 --> 00:03:26,400 AMY WALTER: Right, and power grab, unconstitutional decisions that he made, specifically, not 59 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:29,933 surprisingly, around immigration. 60 00:03:29,933 --> 00:03:31,633 JUDY WOODRUFF: Dreamers, et cetera. 61 00:03:31,633 --> 00:03:33,166 AMY WALTER: Right, and their parents. 62 00:03:33,166 --> 00:03:34,966 JUDY WOODRUFF: And their parents, the families. 63 00:03:34,966 --> 00:03:36,933 AMY WALTER: That's right. 64 00:03:36,933 --> 00:03:38,033 TAMARA KEITH: Though that wasn't done using an emergency declaration. 65 00:03:38,033 --> 00:03:40,100 AMY WALTER: Correct. 66 00:03:40,100 --> 00:03:42,266 TAMARA KEITH: It was done administratively, and all within the executive branch. 67 00:03:42,266 --> 00:03:47,266 This is a little bit different, in that the president has taken the word of Congress. 68 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:50,700 Congress said, this is how much money we want to give you for the wall. 69 00:03:50,700 --> 00:03:53,533 And he's saying, actually, I would like more than that. 70 00:03:53,533 --> 00:03:54,533 AMY WALTER: Right. 71 00:03:54,533 --> 00:03:57,000 Right. 72 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,300 JUDY WOODRUFF: It's executive action vs. declaration of emergency, which is a more extreme step 73 00:04:00,300 --> 00:04:01,266 to take. 74 00:04:01,266 --> 00:04:02,500 AMY WALTER: Right. 75 00:04:02,500 --> 00:04:04,000 JUDY WOODRUFF: I do -- we mentioned 2020. 76 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,066 And I want to bring this up, and we have got a map. 77 00:04:06,066 --> 00:04:10,300 We have tried to look where the 2020 Democratic candidates -- they were all over the country 78 00:04:11,133 --> 00:04:12,300 in the early states. 79 00:04:12,300 --> 00:04:13,800 I was just looking at this. 80 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,033 They were in Iowa, not surprising, New Hampshire. 81 00:04:16,033 --> 00:04:21,033 But they were also in Wisconsin, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, California, and Nevada. 82 00:04:22,933 --> 00:04:26,500 Tam, you know, we are -- they're out there, but the other new name that we have that we 83 00:04:28,566 --> 00:04:33,566 heard about over the weekend is William Weld, who has run for office, and was the governor 84 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,766 of Massachusetts, but he's running as a Republican. 85 00:04:37,766 --> 00:04:41,533 He's challenging President Trump -- or at least he's formed an exploratory committee. 86 00:04:41,533 --> 00:04:44,833 TAMARA KEITH: And you can expect him to spend a lot of time in New Hampshire, where they 87 00:04:44,833 --> 00:04:47,566 may remember him or heard his name. 88 00:04:47,566 --> 00:04:52,233 He did run for vice president on the Libertarian ticket last time around. 89 00:04:52,233 --> 00:04:57,233 He's not like one of the big-name, big-money Republicans that potentially could run against 90 00:04:58,166 --> 00:05:00,766 President Trump in a primary. 91 00:05:00,766 --> 00:05:05,066 But a president facing a primary, even a weak primary, is something that indicates potentially 92 00:05:08,900 --> 00:05:12,233 someone out there believes that the president has weaknesses. 93 00:05:12,233 --> 00:05:13,766 JUDY WOODRUFF: And there are other Republicans. 94 00:05:13,766 --> 00:05:16,200 AMY WALTER: And there are other Republicans looking at it. 95 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:21,200 We will see -- John Kasich, the most talked about person who's likely to challenge him. 96 00:05:23,100 --> 00:05:26,766 But what's interesting is, the candidates - - or the presidents who have had significant 97 00:05:26,766 --> 00:05:31,766 primary challenges in recent history, that president had very low approval scores among 98 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,266 members of their own party. 99 00:05:37,266 --> 00:05:39,366 So, I mean, think back to where Jimmy Carter's approval rating was... 100 00:05:39,366 --> 00:05:40,600 JUDY WOODRUFF: Jimmy Carter and Teddy Kennedy. 101 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:42,233 AMY WALTER: ... when Ted Kennedy announced. 102 00:05:42,233 --> 00:05:44,766 ... his approval ratings among Democrats were somewhere in the 40s. 103 00:05:44,766 --> 00:05:48,566 When LBJ was challenged by McGovern, his approval rating among Democrats was somewhere in the 104 00:05:48,566 --> 00:05:50,566 50s. 105 00:05:50,566 --> 00:05:54,566 George H.W. Bush was somewhere in the 70s when Pat Buchanan announced his primary to 106 00:05:55,266 --> 00:05:57,266 him. 107 00:05:57,266 --> 00:06:00,133 This president is a president with an 89 percent approval rating Republicans. 108 00:06:00,133 --> 00:06:01,433 So there's not an obvious path... 109 00:06:01,433 --> 00:06:02,666 JUDY WOODRUFF: Path. 110 00:06:02,666 --> 00:06:05,200 AMY WALTER: ... for a Republican to take. 111 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:07,300 I think Tam is right. 112 00:06:07,300 --> 00:06:10,266 You don't want to, as an incumbent president, have to spend your time and energy and money 113 00:06:10,266 --> 00:06:12,366 on this. 114 00:06:12,366 --> 00:06:14,400 But we are going to see, especially in a place like New Hampshire, which is a swing state, 115 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:19,333 a battleground state, one Trump barely lost in 2016, is there a group of Republicans there 116 00:06:21,366 --> 00:06:25,566 that are so disappointed with this president that they are willing to go and support another 117 00:06:27,533 --> 00:06:30,500 candidate on the Republican side for president - - and what that will tell us about these 118 00:06:30,500 --> 00:06:32,600 voters. 119 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,300 I'm going to look at those voters then as we go into 2020, where do they go? 120 00:06:34,300 --> 00:06:35,466 Do they go with the Democrat? 121 00:06:35,466 --> 00:06:37,000 Do they stay at home? 122 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,833 Do they decide to stick with the president at the end of the day? 123 00:06:39,833 --> 00:06:41,833 JUDY WOODRUFF: This is unfair. 124 00:06:41,833 --> 00:06:44,733 We have got less than a minute left, Tam, but something you two have wanted to talk 125 00:06:44,733 --> 00:06:49,033 about is, not only is there a presidential campaign in 2020, but obviously the Senate's 126 00:06:49,033 --> 00:06:51,000 up, the House is up. 127 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:55,533 These Senate candidates in a number of states where the cycle is their turn, it's a huge 128 00:06:58,433 --> 00:07:01,033 concern to Republicans and Democrats. 129 00:07:01,033 --> 00:07:02,033 Democrats want to pick up control. 130 00:07:02,033 --> 00:07:04,166 TAMARA KEITH: Yes. 131 00:07:04,166 --> 00:07:08,033 Whereas the last midterm was a good map for Republicans, this is a better map for Democrats. 132 00:07:10,133 --> 00:07:12,833 But Democrats are now frantically trying to get people who could potentially be Senate 133 00:07:12,833 --> 00:07:14,633 candidates not to run for president. 134 00:07:14,633 --> 00:07:15,633 AMY WALTER: Right. 135 00:07:15,633 --> 00:07:16,633 JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 136 00:07:16,633 --> 00:07:18,100 AMY WALTER: Yes, in places... 137 00:07:18,100 --> 00:07:19,033 JUDY WOODRUFF: Because, when you're running for president... 138 00:07:19,033 --> 00:07:19,833 AMY WALTER: You can't do both. 139 00:07:19,833 --> 00:07:20,633 That's exactly right... 140 00:07:20,633 --> 00:07:22,700 TAMARA KEITH: Right. 141 00:07:22,700 --> 00:07:24,166 AMY WALTER: ... in places like Colorado and Montana or in Georgia, where Stacey Abrams, 142 00:07:24,166 --> 00:07:25,900 they're trying to get her to run for the Senate. 143 00:07:25,900 --> 00:07:27,033 JUDY WOODRUFF: Some cross-pressures. 144 00:07:27,033 --> 00:07:28,500 AMY WALTER: That's right. 145 00:07:28,500 --> 00:07:29,966 JUDY WOODRUFF: Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thank you both. 146 00:07:29,966 --> 00:07:30,966 AMY WALTER: You're welcome. 147 00:07:30,966 --> 00:07:31,100 TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.