WEBVTT 00:02.500 --> 00:05.266 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: As President Trump faces the political fallout from his emergency declaration, 00:07.333 --> 00:11.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Democrats eager to take him on in 2020 hit the road, courting voters in the early nominating 00:11.633 --> 00:13.600 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% contests. 00:13.600 --> 00:17.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% For analysis on all this and more, I'm joined by our Politics Monday team, Amy Walter of 00:19.466 --> 00:22.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% The Cook Political Report and the host of the podcast "Politics With Amy Walter" on 00:23.433 --> 00:27.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% WNYC, and Tamara Keith of NPR. 00:27.266 --> 00:28.866 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Hello to both of you. 00:28.866 --> 00:31.400 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% So, there's a lot to talk about. 00:31.400 --> 00:35.333 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% We have just been talking about, though, the emergency, the national emergency that President 00:36.233 --> 00:37.700 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Trump declared on Friday. 00:37.700 --> 00:40.000 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% We are out with a poll just done over the weekend. 00:40.000 --> 00:44.966 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% This is the "NewsHour," NPR and Marist College, Amy, and it shows -- and we're showing the 00:47.000 --> 00:51.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% - - everybody watching the results -- among Republicans, very popular, not surprising, 00:52.666 --> 00:54.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% 85 percent like what the president did, support it. 00:54.600 --> 00:57.500 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Among Democrats, unpopular, only 6 percent. 00:57.500 --> 00:59.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% But among independents, it's also not a majority, 33 percent. 00:59.900 --> 01:02.000 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Right. 01:02.000 --> 01:05.166 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: What does this tell us about what the president did and what the public 01:05.166 --> 01:07.066 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% thinks? 01:07.066 --> 01:09.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% AMY WALTER: Well, the president has had a challenge for some time now. 01:09.166 --> 01:12.633 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% First of all, the facts themselves don't support the claim that there is an emergency on the 01:12.633 --> 01:16.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% border, whether it's the number of people being apprehended of people who are trying 01:16.300 --> 01:20.866 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% to cross illegally, whether it's where drugs are coming in, normally at ports of entry. 01:20.866 --> 01:25.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They're not being taken at other border crossings. 01:25.833 --> 01:30.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So the facts have been pretty well set that there's not an emergency there at the border. 01:33.133 --> 01:36.600 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% And the president has been trying to make the case now for some time that there is indeed 01:36.600 --> 01:37.600 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% an emergency. 01:37.600 --> 01:39.733 align:left position:30%,start line:83% size:60% He's had an Oval Office address,. 01:39.733 --> 01:43.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% he's been in the Rose Garden, he used the State of the Union address to put these -- this 01:43.300 --> 01:45.433 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% idea forward. 01:45.433 --> 01:49.466 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% And what now you see is 58 percent of Americans don't believe that there is a crisis at the 01:49.466 --> 01:51.633 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% border. 01:51.633 --> 01:55.233 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% The only folks who seem to really be supporting the president's claim that he has authority 01:55.233 --> 02:00.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% to do this emergency declaration or that there is an actual crisis, not surprisingly, are 02:02.300 --> 02:04.900 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Republicans, which tells you all you need to know where this is going to head up in 02:04.900 --> 02:09.400 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% Congress, which is that most likely the Democrats in the House will support a resolution saying 02:11.866 --> 02:16.633 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% they don't agree with the emergency declaration, and Republicans in the Senate will stick with 02:16.633 --> 02:18.666 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% the president. 02:18.666 --> 02:20.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: Republicans are going to stick with him, Tam, regardless. 02:20.733 --> 02:24.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Well, most likely, though there have been a few, 02:24.066 --> 02:29.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% a handful of Republicans who, in the Senate, have said that they really don't support this 02:29.800 --> 02:30.600 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% emergency action. 02:30.600 --> 02:32.666 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 02:32.666 --> 02:35.966 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% TAMARA KEITH: What is interesting here is that law from 1976 that you just spent a good 02:35.966 --> 02:39.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% long segment talking about, it includes a fast-track authority. 02:39.533 --> 02:44.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% So the House takes up this bill to terminate the president's emergency order, which we 02:46.133 --> 02:47.400 align:left position:30%,start line:89% size:60% fully expect. 02:47.400 --> 02:49.400 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% It will pass the Democratic House. 02:49.400 --> 02:53.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% It will go to the Senate, and there's nothing Mitch McConnell can do to avoid a vote. 02:53.766 --> 02:54.766 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% It has to get a vote. 02:54.766 --> 02:56.900 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: Huh. 02:56.900 --> 03:00.000 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% TAMARA KEITH: And so what it does is, it -- it does require Republicans who, leading up to 03:00.000 --> 03:04.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% this, said, wow, this would be terrible, please don't do it, don't put us in this position, 03:04.533 --> 03:09.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% it puts them in that position of having to decide whether they sort of believe in the 03:11.533 --> 03:16.066 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Article I role of Congress or whether they want to support their Republican president. 03:18.066 --> 03:20.400 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% AMY WALTER: And many of them argued during the Obama presidency that he was overreaching. 03:20.400 --> 03:22.466 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes. 03:22.466 --> 03:26.400 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% AMY WALTER: Right, and power grab, unconstitutional decisions that he made, specifically, not 03:28.600 --> 03:29.933 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% surprisingly, around immigration. 03:29.933 --> 03:31.633 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: Dreamers, et cetera. 03:31.633 --> 03:33.166 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% AMY WALTER: Right, and their parents. 03:33.166 --> 03:34.966 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: And their parents, the families. 03:34.966 --> 03:36.933 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMY WALTER: That's right. 03:36.933 --> 03:38.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% TAMARA KEITH: Though that wasn't done using an emergency declaration. 03:38.033 --> 03:40.100 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% AMY WALTER: Correct. 03:40.100 --> 03:42.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% TAMARA KEITH: It was done administratively, and all within the executive branch. 03:42.266 --> 03:47.266 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% This is a little bit different, in that the president has taken the word of Congress. 03:49.200 --> 03:50.700 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Congress said, this is how much money we want to give you for the wall. 03:50.700 --> 03:53.533 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And he's saying, actually, I would like more than that. 03:53.533 --> 03:54.533 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% AMY WALTER: Right. 03:54.533 --> 03:57.000 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% Right. 03:57.000 --> 04:00.300 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: It's executive action vs. declaration of emergency, which is a more extreme step 04:00.300 --> 04:01.266 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% to take. 04:01.266 --> 04:02.500 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% AMY WALTER: Right. 04:02.500 --> 04:04.000 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: I do -- we mentioned 2020. 04:04.000 --> 04:06.066 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% And I want to bring this up, and we have got a map. 04:06.066 --> 04:10.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% We have tried to look where the 2020 Democratic candidates -- they were all over the country 04:11.133 --> 04:12.300 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% in the early states. 04:12.300 --> 04:13.800 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% I was just looking at this. 04:13.800 --> 04:16.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% They were in Iowa, not surprising, New Hampshire. 04:16.033 --> 04:21.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But they were also in Wisconsin, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, California, and Nevada. 04:22.933 --> 04:26.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Tam, you know, we are -- they're out there, but the other new name that we have that we 04:28.566 --> 04:33.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% heard about over the weekend is William Weld, who has run for office, and was the governor 04:35.000 --> 04:37.766 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% of Massachusetts, but he's running as a Republican. 04:37.766 --> 04:41.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% He's challenging President Trump -- or at least he's formed an exploratory committee. 04:41.533 --> 04:44.833 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% TAMARA KEITH: And you can expect him to spend a lot of time in New Hampshire, where they 04:44.833 --> 04:47.566 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% may remember him or heard his name. 04:47.566 --> 04:52.233 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% He did run for vice president on the Libertarian ticket last time around. 04:52.233 --> 04:57.233 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% He's not like one of the big-name, big-money Republicans that potentially could run against 04:58.166 --> 05:00.766 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% President Trump in a primary. 05:00.766 --> 05:05.066 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% But a president facing a primary, even a weak primary, is something that indicates potentially 05:08.900 --> 05:12.233 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% someone out there believes that the president has weaknesses. 05:12.233 --> 05:13.766 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: And there are other Republicans. 05:13.766 --> 05:16.200 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% AMY WALTER: And there are other Republicans looking at it. 05:16.200 --> 05:21.200 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% We will see -- John Kasich, the most talked about person who's likely to challenge him. 05:23.100 --> 05:26.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% But what's interesting is, the candidates - - or the presidents who have had significant 05:26.766 --> 05:31.766 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% primary challenges in recent history, that president had very low approval scores among 05:35.600 --> 05:37.266 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% members of their own party. 05:37.266 --> 05:39.366 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% So, I mean, think back to where Jimmy Carter's approval rating was... 05:39.366 --> 05:40.600 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: Jimmy Carter and Teddy Kennedy. 05:40.600 --> 05:42.233 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% AMY WALTER: ... when Ted Kennedy announced. 05:42.233 --> 05:44.766 align:left position:20%,start line:77% size:70% ... his approval ratings among Democrats were somewhere in the 40s. 05:44.766 --> 05:48.566 align:left position:10%,start line:71% size:80% When LBJ was challenged by McGovern, his approval rating among Democrats was somewhere in the 05:48.566 --> 05:50.566 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% 50s. 05:50.566 --> 05:54.566 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% George H.W. Bush was somewhere in the 70s when Pat Buchanan announced his primary to 05:55.266 --> 05:57.266 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% him. 05:57.266 --> 06:00.133 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% This president is a president with an 89 percent approval rating Republicans. 06:00.133 --> 06:01.433 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% So there's not an obvious path... 06:01.433 --> 06:02.666 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: Path. 06:02.666 --> 06:05.200 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% AMY WALTER: ... for a Republican to take. 06:05.200 --> 06:07.300 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% I think Tam is right. 06:07.300 --> 06:10.266 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% You don't want to, as an incumbent president, have to spend your time and energy and money 06:10.266 --> 06:12.366 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% on this. 06:12.366 --> 06:14.400 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% But we are going to see, especially in a place like New Hampshire, which is a swing state, 06:14.400 --> 06:19.333 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% a battleground state, one Trump barely lost in 2016, is there a group of Republicans there 06:21.366 --> 06:25.566 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% that are so disappointed with this president that they are willing to go and support another 06:27.533 --> 06:30.500 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% candidate on the Republican side for president - - and what that will tell us about these 06:30.500 --> 06:32.600 align:left position:40%,start line:89% size:50% voters. 06:32.600 --> 06:34.300 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% I'm going to look at those voters then as we go into 2020, where do they go? 06:34.300 --> 06:35.466 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% Do they go with the Democrat? 06:35.466 --> 06:37.000 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% Do they stay at home? 06:37.000 --> 06:39.833 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% Do they decide to stick with the president at the end of the day? 06:39.833 --> 06:41.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: This is unfair. 06:41.833 --> 06:44.733 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% We have got less than a minute left, Tam, but something you two have wanted to talk 06:44.733 --> 06:49.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% about is, not only is there a presidential campaign in 2020, but obviously the Senate's 06:49.033 --> 06:51.000 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% up, the House is up. 06:51.000 --> 06:55.533 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% These Senate candidates in a number of states where the cycle is their turn, it's a huge 06:58.433 --> 07:01.033 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% concern to Republicans and Democrats. 07:01.033 --> 07:02.033 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% Democrats want to pick up control. 07:02.033 --> 07:04.166 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% TAMARA KEITH: Yes. 07:04.166 --> 07:08.033 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% Whereas the last midterm was a good map for Republicans, this is a better map for Democrats. 07:10.133 --> 07:12.833 align:left position:20%,start line:71% size:70% But Democrats are now frantically trying to get people who could potentially be Senate 07:12.833 --> 07:14.633 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% candidates not to run for president. 07:14.633 --> 07:15.633 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% AMY WALTER: Right. 07:15.633 --> 07:16.633 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: Right. 07:16.633 --> 07:18.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMY WALTER: Yes, in places... 07:18.100 --> 07:19.033 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: Because, when you're running for president... 07:19.033 --> 07:19.833 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMY WALTER: You can't do both. 07:19.833 --> 07:20.633 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% That's exactly right... 07:20.633 --> 07:22.700 align:left position:20%,start line:89% size:70% TAMARA KEITH: Right. 07:22.700 --> 07:24.166 align:left position:10%,start line:77% size:80% AMY WALTER: ... in places like Colorado and Montana or in Georgia, where Stacey Abrams, 07:24.166 --> 07:25.900 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% they're trying to get her to run for the Senate. 07:25.900 --> 07:27.033 align:left position:20%,start line:83% size:70% JUDY WOODRUFF: Some cross-pressures. 07:27.033 --> 07:28.500 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMY WALTER: That's right. 07:28.500 --> 07:29.966 align:left position:10%,start line:83% size:80% JUDY WOODRUFF: Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thank you both. 07:29.966 --> 07:30.966 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% AMY WALTER: You're welcome. 07:30.966 --> 07:31.100 align:left position:10%,start line:89% size:80% TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.