WILLIAM BRANGHAM: This
election in Georgia has
also revealed a high-profile
disagreement between

Donald Trump, who we saw
endorsing David Perdue
for governor, and his
former vice president,

Mike Pence, who is backing
current Governor Brian
Kemp, and is holding a
rally for him tonight.

So let's dive into what's
at stake in Georgia
with our Politics Monday
team. That's Amy Walter

of The Cook Political Report
With Amy Walter and Tamara
Keith of National Public Radio.

Great to see you both.
Great to be here.

Amy, help me understand
this. Pence is now making
his most unambiguous break
with President Trump,

stumping for the governor that
irritates Donald Trump more than
any governor in America. But

in the midst of this
ongoing identity crisis
for the GOP, does Pence
move the needle in any way?

AMY WALTER, The Cook
Political Report: So, I think
Mike Pence looks at what's

happening in Georgia right now
and thinks, oh, well, maybe
that's the path for me too.

A governor, Brian Kemp,
who stood up to claims
by the president that
the election was rigged,

that he could just simply
overturn it, says, no, I'm
not doing it. The president

threatens him. And, right now,
it looks like Kemp's going to
run away with this primary.

Mike Pence says, gosh,
that sounds familiar,
doesn't it? He's told
me I could do all these

things, overturn the election.
Obviously, couldn't do
those things. I'm going
to present myself much

like Brian Kemp did, which
is, I'm a conservative
candidate with a
conservative record without

the baggage that Donald Trump
brings. I'm not going to talk
about 2020. I'm going to talk

about the future. We're
not going to litigate the
past. That's not where
voters want us to go.

Now, it's much more
complicated when you get
into a presidential contest

with Donald Trump vs. an
incumbent governor that Donald
Trump's trying to unseat.

But it's clear that that's
the pathway that he would
like to make for himself.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I mean,
that's Pence's strategy,
Amy -- but -- Tamara,

but the -- we always get a
bit of grief for talking about
the former president a lot.

But he does exert a serious
gravitational pull in
the GOP. And that's why

he still has to be factored
in all of these races.

TAMARA KEITH, National
Public Radio: Certainly.

And even the candidates who
are not openly saying that
that they have the support

of Donald Trump and that they
should over -- that the election
results should be overturned

say, well, there are
questions, that there are
doubts about the election.

So, even the sort of
mainstream conservative
Republican candidates
are saying just enough,

playing just enough footsie
with the big lie to not turn
off Trump voters in a primary.

So, his presence is very
real. And you have to look
beyond just this one race.

He's endorsed something
like a dozen candidates in

Georgia primaries. Now, many of
them are completely unopposed,
and he will able to...

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All
the way down to the
insurance commissioner,
he's even endorsed.

(LAUGHTER)

TAMARA KEITH: Yes. And he
will be able to declare
that his candidates,

he pulled them across the
finish line, even though
they were unopposed in
some of these cases.

But he also has Herschel
Walker, who is his chosen
person for the Senate
race, and there was really

no ability of Republicans
-- other than Trump
Republicans, there was
no ability to pull anyone

up with him. He is going to be
the Republican nominee quite
easily, even though there are a

lot of Republicans in
Georgia and elsewhere who
have a lot of concerns
about him as their nominee.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Amy,
let's just say that, once
the midterms come, and a
certain number of these

Republican candidates who
support this -- the idea
of the big lie, let's say
those candidates lose.

Does that help break this
fever within the GOP?

AMY WALTER: Well, I think
so much of it is about
the leadership, right?

What's going to happen
when there are contested
elections? What are the leaders

in those elections going to do,
the candidates in those cases?

Are they going to react the
way Donald Trump did, say,
well, that's the path for us?

And I think we have a couple
of examples showing that,
really, for the most part,

we're not seeing that as
becoming sort of part of
the DNA or something that
candidates are going to

do after every election.
There was talk after the
California recall election
that the Republican

candidate there wasn't going to
concede. He would -- he ended
up conceding pretty quickly.

More recently, in Pennsylvania,
there's a there there's
a Senate primary that has

still not been called.
There are about 1,000 votes
separating two candidates.

It is going down into legal
process. We're talking about
absentee ballots. We're

talking about signatures,
all the things we heard about
during the 2020 election.

Both the Republican
candidates, though, are
sticking with the process.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Let
the process unfold.

AMY WALTER: Let
the process work.

Nobody's saying, this has
been legitimate, and I'm
just going to call myself
the winner -- or, no,

this has been illegitimate.
I'm calling myself the winner.

Now, this is early times.
But I think those are two
pretty good examples to

suggest that Donald Trump's
way of doing things isn't
going to necessarily be the way

that candidates decide
they're going to follow.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Tam,
what do you think? Does it

break the fever if a bunch
of these candidates lose?

TAMARA KEITH: But there are
a bunch of other candidates
who are going to win.

You have someone like Doug
Mastriano in Pennsylvania, who

is -- part of his stock
and trade and what made him

a promising candidate for the
Republicans is - -and what got
him Trump's endorsement is his

really strong commitment to the
big lie, the fact that he went
on January 6 to Washington,

D.C., and marched toward
the Capitol, though he
says he didn't go in or
he didn't break the law.

So you have candidates
who are going to make it
past the primary, who are
going to be the party's

nominee who may or may not have
Trump's backing, but absolutely
support the idea of only taking

the votes that you want or of
only accepting the result that
is the result that you like.

So, it is -- I think
that it's not settled yet
whether -- whether there
will be some candidates

who simply say, I'm not
accepting the result.
There certainly are
millions of Americans,

Americans who went and saw that
"2000 Mules" movie in movie
theaters, because it is in

theaters. It isn't just in
the corners of the Internet.
They got it into theaters.

There are Americans who wholly
believe that 2020 was stolen.

And if you look at the ads that
are running in states all over
the country in these primaries,

they are talking about how
the election was stolen, how
things were rigged. And it is

just feeding upon itself, so
that millions of Americans
believe that 2020 was rigged.

And if somebody tells them
in 2022 or 2024 that it was,
they're primed to believe it.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Yes, I
talked a lot of Georgia voters
coming out of that film,

and they were
convinced that this was

prima facie evidence of fraud.
And it's like we're living in
two different ecosystems here.

This whole argument
about the big lie is
what yielded January 6,

to a large degree. We know
Congress is going to be
holding hearings about this.

Some Democrats have promised on
that committee that they have

blockbuster testimony that
they will reveal to the public.
We don't know what that is.

But let's just say that that
does come to pass. Do you
think that that searing day,

albeit presented by a
congressional hearing, similarly
moves people? Is there anything

at this point that people
could see about January 6 that
will change their opinion?

AMY WALTER: I do doubt
that to be the case. I just
think we have now -- the

political lines are pretty
well set, and they're
pretty deep right now.

To Tam's point, if you have
already gone and seen a
movie, and you're convinced

that that movie is right,
there's nothing that is going
to be shown in a hearing,

which Republicans are going to
say was completely political
and completely biased to work.

The one thing I will say,
though, as a tactic, right
for being a strong candidate

in this election, if you're
a Republican, the issue is
inflation. The issue is economy.

That's what voters across
the board are saying is the
most important thing to them.

If they decide, instead,
these candidates, I'm
going to focus on the 2020
election being rigged,

I'm going to focus on
Donald Trump and showing
my loyalty to Donald Trump,

polling shows that that
is a terrible decision,

because independent voters
overwhelmingly -- just
24 percent of them say,
yes, we want a candidate

for -- a Republican candidate
for Congress who's going to
focus on the 2020 election.

That's not what they're looking
for. Republicans may be, but
independent voters are not.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Tomorrow
will certainly be a big test of
how these races all unfolded.

AMY WALTER: That's right.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Amy and
Tam, so good to see you.
Thank you both very much.

AMY WALTER: You're welcome.

TAMARA KEITH: Thank you.