>> Hill: THIS THURSDAY WILL MARK
ONE YEAR SINCE A VIOLENT MOB OF
SUPPORTERS OF FORMER PRESIDENT
DONALD TRUMP ATTACKED THE U.S.
CAPITOL AND TRIED TO STOP THE
CERTIFICATION OF THE ELECTION OF
PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN.
THERE IS A VIGIL PLANNED ON THE
STEPS OF THE CAPITOL, AND
PRESIDENT BIDEN IS SAID TO
ADDRESS THE NATION THIS
JANUARY 6.
MR. TRUMP, WHO IS ACCUSED OF
INCITING THIS ATTACK, ALSO SAYS
HE WILL HOLD A NEWS CONFERENCE
THAT DAY, A MOVE THAT MAY BE
PART OF AN ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO
OFFICE.
NEWSHOUR WEEKEND SPECIAL
CORRESPONDENT JEFF GREENFIELD
JOINED US FOR MORE ON
PRESIDENTIAL RE-RUNS.
>> WELL, MICHAEL, IF DONALD
TRUMP TRULY MEANS TO RUN FOR
OFFICE AGAIN, FOR SOME PEOPLE
THAT MAY SEEM LIKE JUST ANOTHER
EXAMPLE OF HOW TRUMP IS
DIFFERENT FROM EVERYBODY ELSE.
BUT, IN FACT, SEVERAL EX-
PRESIDENTS HAVE TRIED TO GET THE
JOB BACK.
SEVERAL HAVE TRIED, ALL HAVE
FAILED.
ALL BUT ONE.
WHEN PRESIDENT GROVER CLEVELAND
LOST HIS REELECTION BID TO
BENJAMIN HARRISON IN 1888, HIS
WIFE TOLD THE WHITE HOUSE STAFF
TO KEEP EVERYTHING IN PLACE,
BECAUSE THEY'D BE BACK IN FOUR
YEARS.
SHE WAS RIGHT.
FOUR YEARS LATER, CLEVELAND
SOUNDLY DEFEATED HARRISON,
BECOMING THE FIRST, AND STILL
THE ONLY, EX-PRESIDENT WHO WON
THE JOB AGAIN.
BUT SEVERAL OTHERS HAVE TRIED,
BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER CLEVELAND.
MARTIN VAN BUREN, OUSTED IN
1840, CAME VERY CLOSE TO WINNING
HIS PARTY'S NOMINATION FOUR
YEARS LATER, BUT CAME UP SHORT.
IN 1848 HE RAN AGAIN, AS THE
NOMINEE OF THE FREE SOIL PARTY--
AND LOST AGAIN.
MILLARD FILMORE, WHO BECAME
PRESIDENT WHEN ZACHARY TAYLOR
DIED, LOST THE WHIG PARTY
NOMINATION IN 1852, AND RAN FOUR
YEARS LATER AS THE CANDIDATE OF
THE NATIVIST AMERICAN PARTY,
BETTER KNOWN AS THE "KNOW
NOTHING PARTY."
HE GOT 20% OF THE VOTE.
ULYSSES GRANT HONORED THE TWO-
TERM TRADITION BY NOT RUNNING IN
1876, BUT FOUR YEARS LATER MADE
A STRONG BID TO WIN THE
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION.
HE FELL JUST SHORT AFTER A 36
BALLOT MARATHON.
JUST AFTER HIS LANDSLIDE
ELECTION TO A FULL TERM IN 1904,
THEODORE ROOSEVELT ANNOUNCED HE
WOULD NOT RUN AGAIN IN FOUR
YEARS.
WHILE HE ENTHUSIASTICALLY
SUPPORTED HIS SUCCESSOR, WILLIAM
HOWARD TAFT, HE CAME TO REGRET
HIS DECISION.
BY 1912 HE SOUGHT TO TAKE THE
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION AWAY FROM
TAFT.
WHEN HE LOST THAT FIGHT, HE RAN
AS A PROGRESSIVE BULL MOOSE
CANDIDATE, WINNING 27% OF THE
VOTE AND 88 ELECTORAL VOTES.
HIS SECOND PLACE FINISH STANDS
AS THE BEST THIRD PARTY RESULT
EVER.
AND IN 1980, GERALD FORD MADE IT
CLEAR THAT HE WAS INTERESTED IN
AVENGING HIS NARROW 1976 LOSS,
ARGUING THAT RONALD REAGAN WAS
TOO CONSERVATIVE TO WIN.
THAT DIDN'T STOP HIM FROM
SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING BECOMING
RONALD REAGAN'S RUNNING MATE, A
NOTION THAT ULTIMATELY DID NOT
HAPPEN, BUT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE
MOST UNUSUAL POST-PRESIDENTIAL
COMEBACK EVER.
SO, WHAT OF DONALD TRUMP'S
PROSPECTS AS A POTENTIAL
CANDIDATE?
AMONG REPUBLICANS, HE HOLDS A
HUGE LEAD IN THE POLLS.
NO ONE ELSE COMES CLOSE.
RIGHT NOW HE RUNS EVEN WITH OR
AHEAD OF JOE BIDEN.
AND HIS POSITION IS MADE
STRONGER BY THE FACT THAT A
LARGE MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS
SUPPORT HIS BASELESS CLAIM THAT
THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN FROM
HIM.
THIS, IN TURN, HAS COMPLICATED
THE POSITION OF OTHER POTENTIAL
CANDIDATES.
NONE OF THEM CAN OPENLY OPPOSE
TRUMP FOR FEAR OF ANGERING THE
BASE.
>> Hill: JEFF, A NUMBER OF
INFLUENTIAL REPUBLICANS HAVE
SOME SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT TRUMP
AND HIS ACTIONS.
FOR INSTANCE, HE'S BACKING
DIVISIVE PRIMARY REPUBLICANS.
AND COULDN'T THAT HURT
REPUBLICAN PROSPECTS OF
REGAINING THE MAJORITY IN THE
HOUSE IN THE FALL ELECTIONS?
>> REPUBLICANS HAVE PAINFUL
MEMORIES OF WHAT HAPPENED BACK
IN 2010, AN OTHERWISE GREAT YEAR
FOR REPUBLICANS.
AND THEN AGAIN IN 2012, WHEN
WINNABLE SENATE SEATS WERE LOST
BECAUSE THE PRIMARY VOTERS
NOMINATED CANDIDATES WHO WERE
JUST UNACCEPTABLE TO THE GENERAL
ELECTION PUBLIC.
AND WE'VE ALREADY SEEN EXAMPLES
WHERE SOME OF TRUMP'S FAVORITES
HAVE HIGHLY CHECKERED PASTS,
INVOLVING EVERYTHING FROM
FINANCES TO DOMESTIC ABUSE.
AND SO, YES, THERE IS A CONCERN
THAT WHILE TRUMP CAN PROBABLY
PERSUADE A LOT OF REPUBLICANS TO
VOTE FOR HIS CANDIDATES IN A
PRIMARY, THAT MAY LIMIT NOT JUST
WHAT THEY COULD DO IN 2022, BUT
MIGHT SUGGEST THAT TRUMP HIMSELF
IS WEAKER AS A GENERAL ELECTION
CANDIDATE IN 2024.
>> Hill: THERE ARE CLOUDS THAT
OVERHANG A POSSIBLE TRUMP 2024
CAMPAIGN, NAMELY JANUARY 6 AND
THE CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE
INVESTIGATING WHAT HAPPENED.
FELLOW REPUBLICAN LIZ CHENEY AND
OTHERS HAVE RAISED THE
POSSIBILITY OF CRIMINAL CONDUCT.
WOULD THE COMMITTEE'S FINDINGS
TARNISH OR EVEN HURT TRUMP?
>> IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY
PROBABLY NOT, BECAUSE THEY'VE
ALREADY, IF I CAN PUT IT IN A
WAY THAT HIS CRITICS SAY,
THEY'VE DRUNK THE KOOL-AID.
THEY ARE CONVINCED THAT THE
WHOLE JANUARY 6 EPISODE, OR
CONGRESSIONAL INVESTIGATION
RATHER, IS A POLITICAL EVENT.
BUT I THINK THE CHARGE OF
CRIMINAL CONDUCT AGAIN IS NOT
HOW YOU WOULD WANT TO LAUNCH A
CAMPAIGN TO REGAIN THE WHITE
HOUSE.
I SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT THAT
THERE ARE PROSECUTORS IN
MANHATTAN, THE NEW YORK STATE
ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE IN
GEORGIA, LOOKING AT DIFFERENT
QUESTIONS OF CRIMINAL CONDUCT
INVOLVING EVERYTHING FROM TRYING
TO OBSTRUCT THE ELECTION COUNT
TO FINANCIAL MIS-DOINGS IN
TRUMP'S BUSINESSES.
SO THOSE, YEAH, YOU WOULD NOT
WANT THAT ON YOUR RESUME IF
YOU'RE TRYING TO GET THE WHITE
HOUSE AGAIN.
>> Hill: JEFF, THERE ARE PLENTY
OF PEOPLE WHO SAY, OH, NO WAY,
TRUMP IN 2024.
HOW NAIVE IS THAT?
>> UH, FROM 1-10, IT'S AN 11.
ANYBODY WHO HAS SEEN THE LAST
SIX YEARS OF AMERICAN POLITICS
AND THINKS, "WELL, THIS TIME IT
CAN'T POSSIBLY HAPPEN," HAS NOT
BEEN WATCHING AMERICAN POLITICS.
IT IS SIMPLY A WAY OF PUTTING
YOUR HANDS OVER YOUR EYES AND
SAYING, "I DON'T WANT TO SEE
THIS."
IF YOU'RE NOT TAKING DONALD
TRUMP SERIOUSLY AS A
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, IN MY
VIEW, YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THE
POLITICAL UNIVERSE WE LIVE IN
TODAY.
>> Hill: JEFF GREENFIELD,
NEWSHOUR WEEKEND SPECIAL
CORRESPONDENT.
THANK YOU, JEFF.
>> THANK YOU.