WEBVTT 00:00.250 --> 00:04.540 JUDY WOODRUFF: The U.S. is on the verge of completing a unilateral and unconditional 00:04.540 --> 00:09.540 withdrawal from Afghanistan, nearly 20 years after it invaded. 00:09.730 --> 00:14.730 And the outgoing U.S. military commander has delivered a new stark warning about the future 00:15.070 --> 00:16.070 of the country. 00:16.070 --> 00:19.119 Nick Schifrin is back right now. And he joins me. 00:19.119 --> 00:22.590 Nick, good to have you with us to talk about this as well. 00:22.590 --> 00:26.820 What are the military leaders saying they're going to -- they believe could happen? 00:26.820 --> 00:31.560 NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes, this is perhaps as blunt and pessimistic a statement as the military 00:31.560 --> 00:35.690 has ever made about Afghanistan. It's also the first time that the Biden administration 00:35.690 --> 00:40.690 or the military has publicly acknowledged the ultimate risk of this withdrawal. 00:40.890 --> 00:45.890 This is General Scott Miller, the U.S. commander in Kabul, telling journalists: "Civil war 00:46.870 --> 00:51.870 is certainly a path that can be visualized if this continues on the trajectory it's on 00:52.469 --> 00:56.190 right now. That should be a concern to the world, and it's certainly a concern to the 00:56.190 --> 01:01.190 region for creating an environment where there's even more violence than there is today." 01:01.219 --> 01:06.219 So what's behind this warning? The first thing, Taliban strength. Since the U.S. announced 01:06.340 --> 01:10.799 its withdrawal, the Taliban have seized some 50 districts across the country, some of them 01:10.799 --> 01:15.650 not so important, but others critical, and could cut off Kabul from the other parts of 01:15.650 --> 01:16.650 the country. 01:16.650 --> 01:21.650 Second, Afghan army weakness. Across the country, we are seeing examples of the Afghan army 01:22.250 --> 01:27.250 surrendering to the Taliban. That's what you're seeing right there, surrendering to the Taliban, 01:27.860 --> 01:32.860 instead of the fighting. The speed with which they have given up territory has surprised 01:33.150 --> 01:35.130 the U.S. and Afghan governments. 01:35.130 --> 01:40.130 And, third, ethnic and government divisions. These are civilians recreating local militaries. 01:42.409 --> 01:47.409 And that hearkens back to a time in Afghanistan where the country was ruled or not ruled because 01:48.420 --> 01:53.180 there were so many local militias overseen by warlords. So it's pretty grim. 01:53.180 --> 01:57.369 Judy,there's an intelligence community assessment that Kabul could fall within six months, but 01:57.369 --> 02:02.369 there are also assessments that Kabul could hold on even if it loses other parts of the 02:02.920 --> 02:03.920 country. 02:03.920 --> 02:08.209 But the bottom line, the U.S. will not be there to save the Afghan military or the Afghan 02:08.209 --> 02:09.209 government. 02:09.209 --> 02:10.209 JUDY WOODRUFF: Pretty ominous. 02:10.209 --> 02:15.209 And, Nick, given this, is that affecting the timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal? 02:15.450 --> 02:17.040 NICK SCHIFRIN: In a short answer, no. 02:17.040 --> 02:21.930 The Afghan government asked the U.S. to delay the withdrawal, but the withdraw, other than 02:21.930 --> 02:26.930 the airport and the embassy, is imminent. Take a look at this video from Bagram Air 02:27.481 --> 02:32.481 Base outside of Kabul. These are hundreds of service members leaving Bagram. This was 02:33.300 --> 02:38.300 really the heart of the U.S. effort in Central Afghanistan. This is the symbol of the withdrawal 02:39.440 --> 02:42.230 imminently moving over to the Afghans. 02:42.230 --> 02:47.230 But there are details outstanding of the withdraw. Firstly, contractors who service Afghan helicopters 02:48.780 --> 02:53.440 right now are also leaving. So the administration is trying to figure out where to do that servicing 02:53.440 --> 02:55.060 outside of Afghanistan. 02:55.060 --> 03:00.060 The airport. Turkey is agreeing to protect the airport, you see right there. But Turkey 03:00.159 --> 03:04.739 is asking for U.S. service members to stay there and also asking for NATO reimbursement. 03:04.739 --> 03:06.989 So those discussions are ongoing. 03:06.989 --> 03:11.989 And, lastly, the embassy. Hundreds of service members will stay to guard the giant embassy 03:12.500 --> 03:16.960 compound in the heart of Kabul. You see it there. This is critical. The U.S. says it 03:16.960 --> 03:21.960 needs U.S. troops to secure that embassy and needs an embassy to continue to support Afghanistan 03:22.040 --> 03:23.040 in the future. 03:23.040 --> 03:27.190 But the Taliban reject that. The Taliban have never said that they would allow U.S. troops 03:27.190 --> 03:32.190 to stay there. And so a senior military official tells me today, if the Taliban attack the 03:32.390 --> 03:36.400 embassy, they will have to evaluate whether they can keep it open. Other officials admit 03:36.400 --> 03:39.480 to me they do not know whether the embassy is sustainable. 03:39.480 --> 03:44.480 JUDY WOODRUFF: And, finally, and just quickly, Nick, a lot of concern about the interpreters 03:44.959 --> 03:49.129 and other Afghan citizens who have been helping the U.S. over the last 20 years. 03:49.129 --> 03:52.879 NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes, 17,000 interpreters, tens of thousands of their family members have 03:52.879 --> 03:55.660 applied for special immigrant visas. 03:55.660 --> 04:00.660 For some of them, this is life and death. Some 300 of them have been killed since 2014. 04:01.090 --> 04:06.090 The plan is to evacuate them to a U.S. territory, not to a third country. The administration 04:06.659 --> 04:11.260 is still working out specifics, but the military says they're ready and able to do that at 04:11.260 --> 04:16.260 any point, so long as the U.S. and Turkey can figure out how to secure that airport. 04:16.419 --> 04:20.780 And so, at this point, the administration emphasizes the billions of dollars of continuing 04:20.780 --> 04:25.780 support, the ongoing training, and highlights that there are no U.S. casualties right now, 04:25.830 --> 04:30.810 and won't be. But the senior Afghan officials I talk to say that their country's being abandoned, 04:30.810 --> 04:34.430 and they are very, very worried about the future of Afghanistan. 04:34.430 --> 04:35.430 JUDY WOODRUFF: And no wonder. 04:35.430 --> 04:36.430 NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes. 04:36.430 --> 04:37.430 JUDY WOODRUFF: Nick Schifrin, thank you. 04:37.430 --> 04:37.434 NICK SCHIFRIN: Thank you.