one Republican candidate is on the rise,# while another's campaign seems to be fading.
Our Politics Monday team is here# for a check-in on the race.
That's## Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report# With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith Merry Christmas to you both.
So, let's talk a derail Donald Trump's path to the# nomination.
New Hampshire could be## her best and perhaps only chance.
And look# at this Saint Anselm College poll.
She ha 30 percent to Donald Trump's 44 percent.
What# that poll doesn't show is that support for## her has doubled since their last poll,# while Donald Trump is holding steady.
When you look at this poll, what do you see?
AMY WALTER, The Cook Politic a state that is really ripe for an upset# in the mold of somebody like Nikki Haley.
Remember that New Hampshire is a state that# has the opportunity for independent voters## or people who don't identify by party to# participate, so more independent-leaning,## more moderate.
This is also a state that is just# overall a little more Trump-skep ical than many of## the other states, especially those that come# early like in Iowa or even a South Carolina.
The challenge for Nikki Haley, though,# is that once you get past New Hampshire,## finding opportunities for that# coalition of hers to expand is really,## really difficult.
The primaries -- some# primaries don't allow independence to vote,## places like California, for example,# with a lot of delegates at stake.
And the kinds of moderate, college-educated voters# who are attracted to Nikki Haley, those voters,## again, most prevalent in New Hampshire.
That# thins out a lot once you get past that state.
GEOFF BENNETT: And, Tam, based on your reporting,## is that something that Nikki coalition beyond the college-educated,# professional, mostly suburban TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio:# That is a real challenge for her.
Certainly, if someone like Chris Christie were to# drop out, those vote would likely move to a Nikki Haley.
But if# someone like Ron DeSantis were to drop out,## those are voters who are much more Trumpy.
Those# are voters who are looking for a message that## is about isolation from the world, about# building walls along the Southern border,## a message that is much more like Trump's message# and not as much like Nikki Haley's message.
Those voters certainly are more likely to go# towards Trump.
So, the challenge for her really## is expanding her coalition.
And it's just not# -- given the divisions in the Republican Party,## the Republican Party is more Trumpy# than it is, like, this traditional,## more moderate, fiscally conservative Republican# in a traditional mold that Nikki Haley represents.
GEOFF BENNETT: Tam mentioned Ron DeSantis.
And The New York Times is out with despite all of the early hype.
And# it includes details like this one.
"Ryan Tyson, Mr. DeSantis' longtime# pollster and one of his closest advisers,## has privately said to multiple people that# they are now at the point in the campaign## where they need to -- quote -- 'make the patient# comfortable,' a phrase evoking hospice care."
Is there any coming back# from this for Ron DeSantis?
AMY WALTER: Listen, his only hope right now# is that what not actually correct, especially Iowa.
And, look,## there is the possibility that Nikki Haley comes# in second in Iowa and not Ron DeSantis.
That is## not out of the realm of possibility,# especially right now, given her rise.
And, in fact, when you talked# about broadening her coalition,## how she does in Iowa and where she does better# or worse i it is that she can put a coalition together# that's a little more regionally creative,## let's say, and can break her# out of this New Hampshire mold.
But for DeSantis, the challenge has been# that he too is having He is unable to find this mix of voters# who both want somebody like Donald Trump,## but also want to move beyond Donald Trump.
And# he's never been able to really capture that.
The## other thing that this campaign did early on was# decide that they were going to basically outsource## all of the things that a campaign traditionally# does, door-knocking, interacting with voters.
All of that went through a super PAC, not through# the campaign.
Why does that matter?
Because you## never really got the sense that there was a# grassroots movement for Ron DeSantis.
These we paid canvassers.
These were people that they# found from -- not because these people said,## I love Ron DeSantis, necessarily, but because# the super PAC was paying them to do that.
So I think that piece really# got to the heart of the sell## of Ron DeSantis being a big part of the challenge.
GEOFF BENNETT: And, Tam, drawing# on your Biden world sources,## how are they responding to this Colorado# Supreme Court ruling Donald Trump from being president again# on the grounds that he was involved in## the insurrection, also removing him# from that state's primary ballot?
How is the Biden White House, the Biden# campaign, really the Biden campaign,## how are they thinking about# addressing this moving forward?
TAMARA KEITH: You know, you're getting radio# silence from them on pretty that involves Donald Trump's challenges,# his legal challenges, whether that be the## various indictments and court cases or these# challenges to even appearing on the ballot.
The Biden campaign feels that those sorts of# stories are getting a huge amount of attention.## In fact, they worry that those stories are# getting all of the attention and sort of## sucking the oxygen out of the campaign, not# allowing opponents of Trump in the primary## to really gain footing and also not allowing# voters to learn about the things that Trump## is saying out on the trail or the things that# he's promising that he would do as president.
So what the Biden campaign is doing is trying# their very best to draw attention, to draw contrasts to things like the former president's# position the Affordable Care Act, or language he's## used describing his political opponents as vermin,# or the fact that he wants to seek retribution.
All of this, that's what they're# trying to draw attention to,## and they're sort of letting the natural# order and the news cycle put attention## Trump's legal challenges, whether# that be the Colorado case or others.
GEOFF BENNETT: Well, in the time that remains# on this last Politics Monday of 2023 AMY WALTER: Yes.
that affected our politics in a new or# significant way, Amy, starting with y AMY WALTER: Well, we're talking a little bit# about the courts here, the Supreme Court's role## in the presidency and what that election could# look like, but it's not just the presidency.
It's also control of Congress may come down# to what the courts decided, the Supreme Court## being one, also some of the state courts on# redistricting.
And when you have a five-seat## majority, as Republicans have, any single# movement, one seat here, a couple seats there,## could be the difference between Republicans# staying in power or Democrats gaining power.
GEOFF BENNETT: Tam?
TAMARA KEITH: Well, and what wh ich was, this past week, the# Wisconsin State Supreme Court## made a decision throwing out the# state's legislative district lines.
Now, that is likely to be appealed to the# U.S. Supreme Court.
But what stands out to## me from this moment is, there was a race# for state Supreme Court, for a position## on the court earlier this year.
And abortion# was a huge issue in that race, because there## was this oldie-time abortion law on the books# that could go before the state Supreme Court.
And so there was a race that was pretty# much entirely focused on abortion,## a little bit about redistricting but mostly about# abortion.
And that election had consequences.## The judicial -- the judge who was backed by# Democrats, who aligned in favor of abortion,## rights ended up winning, winning handily in# this state that's pretty closely divided.
And that could affect the balance of power# in the state legislature and other things.## What stands out to me here is that,# again and again throughout this year,## we have seen examples of abortion being# on the ballot, whether that be literally## or just in typically minor races that# people wouldn't even pay attention to.
And pretty much every time, it has fallen towards## voters wanting to continue to have# access to that health care procedure.
GEOFF BENNETT: Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, thank# you so much for joining us on this last Politics## Monday of 2023.
We will see you back here next# Monday for the first Politics Mond Take care.
Merry Christmas.
AMY WALTER: Merry Ch