1 00:00:02,533 --> 00:00:05,000 AMNA NAWAZ: Secretary of State Antony Blinken finished up a high-stakes visit to Beijing today, 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:09,466 the first visit by an American top diplomat to China in five years. 3 00:00:09,466 --> 00:00:14,266 Relations between the two preeminent global powers are at their lowest point 4 00:00:14,266 --> 00:00:19,266 since ties were restored 50 years ago. Blinken's mission, to see if there's a way to right them. 5 00:00:21,033 --> 00:00:23,100 XI JINPING, Chinese President (through translator): Good afternoon. 6 00:00:23,100 --> 00:00:26,766 AMNA NAWAZ: A firm handshake, despite a shaky relationship. Today, Secretary of State Antony 7 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:33,000 Blinken wrapped up his postponed trip to China, marathon meetings with several top 8 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,300 officials and a short visit with President Xi Jinping. Both sides expressed optimism. 9 00:00:40,266 --> 00:00:42,866 ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of State: I stressed that direct engagement and sustained 10 00:00:42,866 --> 00:00:47,033 communication at senior levels is the best way to responsibly manage our differences and ensure 11 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,333 that competition does not veer into conflict. And I heard the same from my Chinese counterparts. 12 00:00:53,833 --> 00:00:56,433 We both agree on the need to stabilize our relationship. 13 00:00:56,433 --> 00:01:00,600 XI JINPING (through translator): The two sides have agreed to follow through with 14 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:05,266 the common understandings President Biden and I had reached in Bali. The two sides 15 00:01:05,266 --> 00:01:08,733 have also made progress and reached agreement on some specific issues. 16 00:01:08,733 --> 00:01:13,533 AMNA NAWAZ: President Xi referring to a meeting with President Biden last November in Indonesia, 17 00:01:13,533 --> 00:01:18,533 where the leaders set an agenda to warm relations, but the winter brought frosty relations. 18 00:01:20,500 --> 00:01:23,566 In February, the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon over its airspace, 19 00:01:23,566 --> 00:01:28,566 the reason for this trip's postponement. Blinken and she did not publicly address the 20 00:01:30,466 --> 00:01:33,633 furor this weekend. Several other issues went unresolved, most notably resuming 21 00:01:33,633 --> 00:01:38,633 military-to-military contacts, which Secretary Blinken confirmed China is not yet ready to do. 22 00:01:39,833 --> 00:01:41,766 ANTONY BLINKEN: It's a work in progress. 23 00:01:41,766 --> 00:01:45,233 AMNA NAWAZ: But in an interview with CBS News, he emphasized its continued urgency. 24 00:01:45,233 --> 00:01:47,266 ANTONY BLINKEN: We want to, at the very least, 25 00:01:47,266 --> 00:01:51,633 make sure that we don't inadvertently have a conflict because of miscommunication. 26 00:01:51,633 --> 00:01:56,600 AMNA NAWAZ: A potential point of conflict, Taiwan. China has ratcheted up its military activity 27 00:01:58,666 --> 00:02:03,300 around the island that it claims as a breakaway province, while the U.S. has upheld a policy of 28 00:02:05,300 --> 00:02:09,800 strategic ambiguity, committing to a One China policy, while also selling arms to the island. 29 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:15,433 On several occasions during his term, Biden has also said the U.S. would defend Taiwan 30 00:02:17,333 --> 00:02:21,233 from Chinese attack. Also unsettled, the two nations' battle for military and economic 31 00:02:23,166 --> 00:02:27,200 influence in the Indo-Pacific region. In. 2021, the U.S. announced a security pact 32 00:02:29,633 --> 00:02:32,700 with Australia and the United Kingdom that would supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. 33 00:02:33,866 --> 00:02:36,433 It garnered a strong rebuke from China. 34 00:02:36,433 --> 00:02:39,100 WANG WENBIN, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman (through translator): Establishing the so-called 35 00:02:39,100 --> 00:02:42,233 trilateral security partnership will only trigger an arms race, 36 00:02:42,233 --> 00:02:47,233 damage the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, and harm regional peace and stability. 37 00:02:49,300 --> 00:02:52,333 AMNA NAWAZ: Since then, President Biden has made a trip to the region and has 38 00:02:52,333 --> 00:02:56,833 hosted several of its leaders. India's prime minister will visit Washington this week. 39 00:02:56,833 --> 00:03:01,500 Meantime, China has increased military exercises in the South 40 00:03:01,500 --> 00:03:06,500 China Sea and its confrontations with the Americans. Just a few weeks ago, 41 00:03:08,500 --> 00:03:11,100 a Chinese fighter jet cut in front of a U.S. aircraft over the South China Sea, 42 00:03:11,100 --> 00:03:15,900 which the U.S. military called a -- quote - - "unnecessarily aggressive maneuver." 43 00:03:17,766 --> 00:03:21,233 A week later, a Chinese warship cut off an American warship in the Strait of Taiwan. 44 00:03:21,233 --> 00:03:25,800 Although there were no breakthroughs on these major points of tension this weekend, 45 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:29,366 Secretary Blinken struck a note of cautious optimism. 46 00:03:29,366 --> 00:03:33,233 ANTONY BLINKEN: My hope and expectation is, we will have better communications, 47 00:03:33,233 --> 00:03:37,833 better engagement going forward. It is critical to doing what we both agree is necessary. 48 00:03:39,266 --> 00:03:41,333 And that is responsibly managing the relationship. 49 00:03:41,333 --> 00:03:46,033 AMNA NAWAZ: And to decode Secretary Blinken's China visit and its ramifications 50 00:03:47,900 --> 00:03:50,100 for Washington's relationship with Beijing, I'm joined by Ryan Hass, 51 00:03:50,100 --> 00:03:53,600 a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was the director 52 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:58,566 for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the National Security Council in the Obama administration. 53 00:04:00,233 --> 00:04:03,000 Also with us is Miles Yu, a senior fellow and director of the China 54 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:07,500 Program at the Hudson Institute. He served as the China policy adviser 55 00:04:07,500 --> 00:04:10,833 to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the Trump administration. 56 00:04:10,833 --> 00:04:12,866 And welcome to you both. Thanks for being here. 57 00:04:12,866 --> 00:04:14,333 RYAN HASS, Brookings Institution: Thank you. 58 00:04:14,333 --> 00:04:16,433 MILES YU, Hudson Institute: Thank you for having me. 59 00:04:16,433 --> 00:04:19,033 So, Ryan, this was reportedly a relatively short meeting, about 30 or 35 minutes, right? What 60 00:04:21,133 --> 00:04:23,866 does it say to you that the meeting happened at all between President Xi and Secretary Blinken? 61 00:04:23,866 --> 00:04:26,633 RYAN HASS: Well, I think it was significant that President Xi and Secretary Blinken had 62 00:04:26,633 --> 00:04:28,900 a chance to sit down, because it really accomplished two things. 63 00:04:28,900 --> 00:04:32,333 The first is that President Xi was able to articulate in his own words 64 00:04:32,333 --> 00:04:35,333 the future direction that he intends to see the U.S.-China relationship 65 00:04:35,333 --> 00:04:38,200 travel. And this is a departure from the previous statement, 66 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,866 which was his accusation that the United States seeks to contain and circle and suppress China. 67 00:04:42,866 --> 00:04:44,833 AMNA NAWAZ: Right. 68 00:04:44,833 --> 00:04:47,333 RYAN HASS: So, Secretary Blinken succeeded in moving President Xi on that. 69 00:04:47,333 --> 00:04:52,200 The second signal that it sent was a signal to the rest of the Chinese government that President Xi 70 00:04:54,633 --> 00:04:57,333 expects and is comfortable with his counterparts engaging directly with their American counterparts 71 00:04:57,333 --> 00:05:01,833 to seek to moderate tensions. So, all in all, I think it was a pretty productive day of diplomacy. 72 00:05:01,833 --> 00:05:03,700 AMNA NAWAZ: Miles, productive? How would you rate it? 73 00:05:03,700 --> 00:05:06,633 MILES YU: I think I will give you a C-plus, A-minus. 74 00:05:06,633 --> 00:05:11,633 The third signal that Ryan has not mentioned is that this is also very good optics for the 75 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,833 Chinese, because Xi Jinping sits at the head table. He talks like an emperor, 76 00:05:16,833 --> 00:05:21,000 talking down, showing his contempt for the American over approach. 77 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:26,000 But I think this is in sharp contrast in 2018, last time a U.S. secretary of state with China, 78 00:05:27,933 --> 00:05:32,166 when Xi Jinping sits side by side with Secretary Pompeo. Even though he despised Pompeo, 79 00:05:34,133 --> 00:05:36,166 but then at least they know he also has some sort amount of fear. This is 80 00:05:36,166 --> 00:05:40,233 a conversation that needs to happen, but needs to happen on equal terms. 81 00:05:40,233 --> 00:05:45,233 I think China right now is in a position to sort of challenge Americans' not only goodwill, 82 00:05:47,233 --> 00:05:50,533 but also American strength, and by playing this sort of optical game. So I think it's 83 00:05:52,533 --> 00:05:56,233 important both sides sit down to talk about - - engage to avoid a crisis. And I think, 84 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,700 also, it's very important for us to keep in mind what's at stake on the Chinese side. 85 00:06:00,700 --> 00:06:03,900 AMNA NAWAZ: Ryan, President Biden has said that he believes U.S.-China relations are 86 00:06:03,900 --> 00:06:06,466 on the right trail. Do you agree with that after these meetings? 87 00:06:06,466 --> 00:06:09,600 RYAN HASS: Well, I think that the past two days put us on a better 88 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,933 pathway than we were on a week ago at this time. 89 00:06:13,833 --> 00:06:16,900 The reality is that it's important for the United States and China to have the capacity 90 00:06:16,900 --> 00:06:21,000 to communicate directly with each other. It's important to shrink space for miscalculation. 91 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:24,766 It's important to explore whether there's mutual intents to try to moderate the relationship. 92 00:06:24,766 --> 00:06:28,600 And so we're doing these things because they're in America's interests to do. 93 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:33,600 And on the issue of seating charts, we can quibble over what the proper protocol is 94 00:06:35,500 --> 00:06:37,566 for a seating chart. The reality is that the United States is abundantly stronger 95 00:06:37,566 --> 00:06:40,733 than China in pretty much every material category that you could use to evaluate. 96 00:06:40,733 --> 00:06:44,266 And so I think that, from questions of military power, 97 00:06:44,266 --> 00:06:47,266 diplomatic partners around the world, alliances, 98 00:06:47,266 --> 00:06:52,000 the world reserve currency of the United States dollar, America's innovation ecosystem, we're 99 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,833 very comfortable and confident in our capacity to engage China from a position of confidence. 100 00:06:55,833 --> 00:06:58,366 AMNA NAWAZ: The failure, though -- you mentioned the military capabilities. The 101 00:06:58,366 --> 00:07:03,166 failure to reestablish those military-to-military communications, that's a bit of a failure for 102 00:07:03,166 --> 00:07:06,766 the U.S., right? That was important in terms of bringing down the risk of miscalculation. 103 00:07:06,766 --> 00:07:09,833 RYAN HASS: Well, let's take this as a first step, Amna. 104 00:07:09,833 --> 00:07:11,866 AMNA NAWAZ: Yes. 105 00:07:11,866 --> 00:07:15,233 RYAN HASS: Secretary Blinken doesn't speak on behalf of the American military, 106 00:07:15,233 --> 00:07:18,033 and his Chinese counterparts don't speak on behalf of the Chinese military. 107 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,233 And it's important that we get to a point where our militaries are 108 00:07:22,233 --> 00:07:24,100 able to reestablish connectivity with each other, 109 00:07:25,633 --> 00:07:28,200 but, Secretary Blinken's trip was the first step. And, ultimately, 110 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:32,033 questions of war and peace will be decided at the leadership level, not between both militaries. 111 00:07:32,033 --> 00:07:35,266 And the fact that we were able to reestablish connectivity with China's 112 00:07:35,266 --> 00:07:37,766 top leader, I think it's an important step. 113 00:07:37,766 --> 00:07:40,666 AMNA NAWAZ: Miles, there's the issue of China's faltering economy at this moment, right? You 114 00:07:40,666 --> 00:07:44,500 mentioned Chinese leverage in these talks. But doesn't that give the U.S. some leverage? 115 00:07:44,500 --> 00:07:49,200 MILES YU: Ryan's right. You're absolutely right. The U.S. has tremendous leverage, 116 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,800 the leverage we should have used, but we have not used efficiently. 117 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,100 So, as you say, China's economy is in shambles. We have to understand 118 00:07:56,100 --> 00:08:01,100 China needs United States much more than your United States needs China. China's economy, 119 00:08:03,100 --> 00:08:05,733 China's technology, China's military is - - depends to a larger degree on Western 120 00:08:05,733 --> 00:08:10,733 technology and exports. So it's in their best interests to engage with the United States. 121 00:08:12,733 --> 00:08:15,833 So I think that's why we have this advantage, the advantage that we can use, and I think we 122 00:08:17,700 --> 00:08:21,100 should have used more. Secretary Blinken's visit to China, for example, is based upon 123 00:08:21,100 --> 00:08:26,100 the assumption that somehow we could establish a direct military-to-military professional contact. 124 00:08:28,100 --> 00:08:32,400 That's a dream. We have tried for decades. And we have to understand the nature of the 125 00:08:34,300 --> 00:08:37,233 Chinese Party-military relationship. The Chinese Communist Party would never allow 126 00:08:37,233 --> 00:08:41,233 its military to conduct independent communication with the Western... 127 00:08:41,233 --> 00:08:42,766 AMNA NAWAZ: Never? That will never happen? 128 00:08:42,766 --> 00:08:44,400 MILES YU: Never. This is the - - that's right. We -- this 129 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:48,800 show again and again in 2001 EP-3 plane incident. 130 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:50,233 AMNA NAWAZ: Yes. 131 00:08:50,233 --> 00:08:52,266 MILES YU: Nobody from Chinese military would pick 132 00:08:52,266 --> 00:08:54,933 up the phone call, and even though we had robust communication with them. 133 00:08:54,933 --> 00:08:59,933 The nature of the party-military relationship is totally different from the West. So, 134 00:09:02,033 --> 00:09:04,833 this is even worse than the Soviet time, when the U.S. military and the Soviet high 135 00:09:04,833 --> 00:09:09,833 command could have some kind of semblance -- some kind of communication. No, this is not. 136 00:09:11,866 --> 00:09:15,000 AMNA NAWAZ: So, Ryan, what are you going to be watching for now in the days and the weeks 137 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,866 ahead to judge how these meetings actually went? What's the impact of these talks? 138 00:09:18,866 --> 00:09:20,900 RYAN HASS: Well, we need to explore whether or 139 00:09:20,900 --> 00:09:25,800 not the mutual intent to lower the risk of miscalculation or miscommunication exists. 140 00:09:27,766 --> 00:09:31,000 And we will have a series of follow-up meetings in both Washington and Beijing 141 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,133 in the coming weeks that will sort of bring into light how much progress is 142 00:09:34,133 --> 00:09:37,300 possible between now and November, when we expect that President Xi will travel to 143 00:09:37,300 --> 00:09:40,533 United States to meet with President Biden on the margins of the APEC leaders summit. 144 00:09:40,533 --> 00:09:45,533 And so we have this window now over the next several months to see if we can shrink space for 145 00:09:48,100 --> 00:09:51,700 miscalculation, if we can establish a cooperative agenda that is based upon mutual self-interest, 146 00:09:51,700 --> 00:09:54,600 where we both take actions that are in parallel to each other that serve each 147 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,766 of our respective interests. And, if so, the world will be a better place. 148 00:09:57,766 --> 00:10:01,966 But, if not, the United States isn't a confident, strong position to get caught trying. 149 00:10:01,966 --> 00:10:03,466 AMNA NAWAZ: Miles, what are you watching for? 150 00:10:03,466 --> 00:10:05,500 MILES YU: China has to be responsible. 151 00:10:05,500 --> 00:10:09,600 Chinese Communist Party, their actions and deeds are most important in deciding 152 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:14,400 the nature and direction of U.S.-China relationship. So that's why I think I'm very, 153 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:19,400 very satisfied that the new China policy paradigm that 154 00:10:21,333 --> 00:10:24,100 emerged during the Trump administration more or less continue on to this day. 155 00:10:24,100 --> 00:10:29,100 The China challenge is not just a partisan issue. It's an American issue. So, for that, and I think 156 00:10:31,133 --> 00:10:35,833 I give Biden credit -- administration credit. However, there are some misconceptions. There 157 00:10:35,833 --> 00:10:40,800 are some understanding of how the Chinese system operates. We should have no illusion. 158 00:10:42,833 --> 00:10:45,966 For example, China always throw out this red herring called Taiwan independence. 159 00:10:47,433 --> 00:10:51,866 There is no Taiwan independence, because no political party in 160 00:10:51,866 --> 00:10:56,800 Taiwan is advocating for Taiwan independence. Taiwan maintain -- wants to have status quo. 161 00:10:58,733 --> 00:11:02,333 Status quo, in fact, is independence. There is no need for that. So China always force 162 00:11:04,266 --> 00:11:07,500 the United States to make a statement, say, U.S. do not support Taiwanese independence. 163 00:11:09,500 --> 00:11:12,333 This is red herring. It's basically an own goal which we should not have scored. 164 00:11:12,333 --> 00:11:14,433 AMNA NAWAZ: Gentlemen, we will have to leave it there. I have a feeling 165 00:11:14,433 --> 00:11:16,966 we will talk about this some more. Please come back and join us again. 166 00:11:16,966 --> 00:11:19,233 Miles Yu, Ryan Hass, thank you for your time. 167 00:11:19,233 --> 00:11:20,533 RYAN HASS: Thank you, Amna. 168 00:11:20,533 --> 00:11:21,666 MILES YU: Thank you.