WEBVTT 00:02.533 --> 00:05.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Secretary of State Antony Blinken finished up a high-stakes visit to Beijing today, 00:06.600 --> 00:09.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% the first visit by an American top diplomat to China in five years. 00:09.466 --> 00:14.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Relations between the two preeminent global powers are at their lowest point 00:14.266 --> 00:19.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% since ties were restored 50 years ago. Blinken's mission, to see if there's a way to right them. 00:21.033 --> 00:23.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% XI JINPING, Chinese President (through translator): Good afternoon. 00:23.100 --> 00:26.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: A firm handshake, despite a shaky relationship. Today, Secretary of State Antony 00:28.600 --> 00:33.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Blinken wrapped up his postponed trip to China, marathon meetings with several top 00:35.000 --> 00:38.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% officials and a short visit with President Xi Jinping. Both sides expressed optimism. 00:40.266 --> 00:42.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of State: I stressed that direct engagement and sustained 00:42.866 --> 00:47.033 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% communication at senior levels is the best way to responsibly manage our differences and ensure 00:49.600 --> 00:52.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% that competition does not veer into conflict. And I heard the same from my Chinese counterparts. 00:53.833 --> 00:56.433 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% We both agree on the need to stabilize our relationship. 00:56.433 --> 01:00.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% XI JINPING (through translator): The two sides have agreed to follow through with 01:00.600 --> 01:05.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the common understandings President Biden and I had reached in Bali. The two sides 01:05.266 --> 01:08.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% have also made progress and reached agreement on some specific issues. 01:08.733 --> 01:13.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: President Xi referring to a meeting with President Biden last November in Indonesia, 01:13.533 --> 01:18.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% where the leaders set an agenda to warm relations, but the winter brought frosty relations. 01:20.500 --> 01:23.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% In February, the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon over its airspace, 01:23.566 --> 01:28.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the reason for this trip's postponement. Blinken and she did not publicly address the 01:30.466 --> 01:33.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% furor this weekend. Several other issues went unresolved, most notably resuming 01:33.633 --> 01:38.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% military-to-military contacts, which Secretary Blinken confirmed China is not yet ready to do. 01:39.833 --> 01:41.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% ANTONY BLINKEN: It's a work in progress. 01:41.766 --> 01:45.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: But in an interview with CBS News, he emphasized its continued urgency. 01:45.233 --> 01:47.266 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% ANTONY BLINKEN: We want to, at the very least, 01:47.266 --> 01:51.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% make sure that we don't inadvertently have a conflict because of miscommunication. 01:51.633 --> 01:56.600 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: A potential point of conflict, Taiwan. China has ratcheted up its military activity 01:58.666 --> 02:03.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% around the island that it claims as a breakaway province, while the U.S. has upheld a policy of 02:05.300 --> 02:09.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% strategic ambiguity, committing to a One China policy, while also selling arms to the island. 02:11.800 --> 02:15.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% On several occasions during his term, Biden has also said the U.S. would defend Taiwan 02:17.333 --> 02:21.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% from Chinese attack. Also unsettled, the two nations' battle for military and economic 02:23.166 --> 02:27.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% influence in the Indo-Pacific region. In. 2021, the U.S. announced a security pact 02:29.633 --> 02:32.700 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% with Australia and the United Kingdom that would supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. 02:33.866 --> 02:36.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% It garnered a strong rebuke from China. 02:36.433 --> 02:39.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% WANG WENBIN, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman (through translator): Establishing the so-called 02:39.100 --> 02:42.233 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% trilateral security partnership will only trigger an arms race, 02:42.233 --> 02:47.233 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% damage the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, and harm regional peace and stability. 02:49.300 --> 02:52.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Since then, President Biden has made a trip to the region and has 02:52.333 --> 02:56.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% hosted several of its leaders. India's prime minister will visit Washington this week. 02:56.833 --> 03:01.500 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Meantime, China has increased military exercises in the South 03:01.500 --> 03:06.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% China Sea and its confrontations with the Americans. Just a few weeks ago, 03:08.500 --> 03:11.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a Chinese fighter jet cut in front of a U.S. aircraft over the South China Sea, 03:11.100 --> 03:15.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% which the U.S. military called a -- quote - - "unnecessarily aggressive maneuver." 03:17.766 --> 03:21.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% A week later, a Chinese warship cut off an American warship in the Strait of Taiwan. 03:21.233 --> 03:25.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Although there were no breakthroughs on these major points of tension this weekend, 03:25.800 --> 03:29.366 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Secretary Blinken struck a note of cautious optimism. 03:29.366 --> 03:33.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ANTONY BLINKEN: My hope and expectation is, we will have better communications, 03:33.233 --> 03:37.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% better engagement going forward. It is critical to doing what we both agree is necessary. 03:39.266 --> 03:41.333 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% And that is responsibly managing the relationship. 03:41.333 --> 03:46.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: And to decode Secretary Blinken's China visit and its ramifications 03:47.900 --> 03:50.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% for Washington's relationship with Beijing, I'm joined by Ryan Hass, 03:50.100 --> 03:53.600 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was the director 03:53.600 --> 03:58.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the National Security Council in the Obama administration. 04:00.233 --> 04:03.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Also with us is Miles Yu, a senior fellow and director of the China 04:03.000 --> 04:07.500 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Program at the Hudson Institute. He served as the China policy adviser 04:07.500 --> 04:10.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the Trump administration. 04:10.833 --> 04:12.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And welcome to you both. Thanks for being here. 04:12.866 --> 04:14.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% RYAN HASS, Brookings Institution: Thank you. 04:14.333 --> 04:16.433 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% MILES YU, Hudson Institute: Thank you for having me. 04:16.433 --> 04:19.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, Ryan, this was reportedly a relatively short meeting, about 30 or 35 minutes, right? What 04:21.133 --> 04:23.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% does it say to you that the meeting happened at all between President Xi and Secretary Blinken? 04:23.866 --> 04:26.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% RYAN HASS: Well, I think it was significant that President Xi and Secretary Blinken had 04:26.633 --> 04:28.900 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% a chance to sit down, because it really accomplished two things. 04:28.900 --> 04:32.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The first is that President Xi was able to articulate in his own words 04:32.333 --> 04:35.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the future direction that he intends to see the U.S.-China relationship 04:35.333 --> 04:38.200 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% travel. And this is a departure from the previous statement, 04:38.200 --> 04:42.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% which was his accusation that the United States seeks to contain and circle and suppress China. 04:42.866 --> 04:44.833 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% AMNA NAWAZ: Right. 04:44.833 --> 04:47.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% RYAN HASS: So, Secretary Blinken succeeded in moving President Xi on that. 04:47.333 --> 04:52.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% The second signal that it sent was a signal to the rest of the Chinese government that President Xi 04:54.633 --> 04:57.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% expects and is comfortable with his counterparts engaging directly with their American counterparts 04:57.333 --> 05:01.833 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% to seek to moderate tensions. So, all in all, I think it was a pretty productive day of diplomacy. 05:01.833 --> 05:03.700 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Miles, productive? How would you rate it? 05:03.700 --> 05:06.633 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% MILES YU: I think I will give you a C-plus, A-minus. 05:06.633 --> 05:11.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The third signal that Ryan has not mentioned is that this is also very good optics for the 05:13.600 --> 05:16.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Chinese, because Xi Jinping sits at the head table. He talks like an emperor, 05:16.833 --> 05:21.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% talking down, showing his contempt for the American over approach. 05:21.000 --> 05:26.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% But I think this is in sharp contrast in 2018, last time a U.S. secretary of state with China, 05:27.933 --> 05:32.166 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% when Xi Jinping sits side by side with Secretary Pompeo. Even though he despised Pompeo, 05:34.133 --> 05:36.166 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but then at least they know he also has some sort amount of fear. This is 05:36.166 --> 05:40.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a conversation that needs to happen, but needs to happen on equal terms. 05:40.233 --> 05:45.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I think China right now is in a position to sort of challenge Americans' not only goodwill, 05:47.233 --> 05:50.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but also American strength, and by playing this sort of optical game. So I think it's 05:52.533 --> 05:56.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% important both sides sit down to talk about - - engage to avoid a crisis. And I think, 05:58.200 --> 06:00.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% also, it's very important for us to keep in mind what's at stake on the Chinese side. 06:00.700 --> 06:03.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Ryan, President Biden has said that he believes U.S.-China relations are 06:03.900 --> 06:06.466 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% on the right trail. Do you agree with that after these meetings? 06:06.466 --> 06:09.600 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% RYAN HASS: Well, I think that the past two days put us on a better 06:09.600 --> 06:11.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% pathway than we were on a week ago at this time. 06:13.833 --> 06:16.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The reality is that it's important for the United States and China to have the capacity 06:16.900 --> 06:21.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to communicate directly with each other. It's important to shrink space for miscalculation. 06:21.000 --> 06:24.766 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% It's important to explore whether there's mutual intents to try to moderate the relationship. 06:24.766 --> 06:28.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And so we're doing these things because they're in America's interests to do. 06:28.600 --> 06:33.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And on the issue of seating charts, we can quibble over what the proper protocol is 06:35.500 --> 06:37.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% for a seating chart. The reality is that the United States is abundantly stronger 06:37.566 --> 06:40.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% than China in pretty much every material category that you could use to evaluate. 06:40.733 --> 06:44.266 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% And so I think that, from questions of military power, 06:44.266 --> 06:47.266 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% diplomatic partners around the world, alliances, 06:47.266 --> 06:52.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% the world reserve currency of the United States dollar, America's innovation ecosystem, we're 06:52.000 --> 06:55.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% very comfortable and confident in our capacity to engage China from a position of confidence. 06:55.833 --> 06:58.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: The failure, though -- you mentioned the military capabilities. The 06:58.366 --> 07:03.166 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% failure to reestablish those military-to-military communications, that's a bit of a failure for 07:03.166 --> 07:06.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the U.S., right? That was important in terms of bringing down the risk of miscalculation. 07:06.766 --> 07:09.833 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% RYAN HASS: Well, let's take this as a first step, Amna. 07:09.833 --> 07:11.866 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% AMNA NAWAZ: Yes. 07:11.866 --> 07:15.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% RYAN HASS: Secretary Blinken doesn't speak on behalf of the American military, 07:15.233 --> 07:18.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and his Chinese counterparts don't speak on behalf of the Chinese military. 07:19.600 --> 07:22.233 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% And it's important that we get to a point where our militaries are 07:22.233 --> 07:24.100 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% able to reestablish connectivity with each other, 07:25.633 --> 07:28.200 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% but, Secretary Blinken's trip was the first step. And, ultimately, 07:28.200 --> 07:32.033 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% questions of war and peace will be decided at the leadership level, not between both militaries. 07:32.033 --> 07:35.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And the fact that we were able to reestablish connectivity with China's 07:35.266 --> 07:37.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% top leader, I think it's an important step. 07:37.766 --> 07:40.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Miles, there's the issue of China's faltering economy at this moment, right? You 07:40.666 --> 07:44.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% mentioned Chinese leverage in these talks. But doesn't that give the U.S. some leverage? 07:44.500 --> 07:49.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% MILES YU: Ryan's right. You're absolutely right. The U.S. has tremendous leverage, 07:49.200 --> 07:52.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% the leverage we should have used, but we have not used efficiently. 07:52.800 --> 07:56.100 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% So, as you say, China's economy is in shambles. We have to understand 07:56.100 --> 08:01.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% China needs United States much more than your United States needs China. China's economy, 08:03.100 --> 08:05.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% China's technology, China's military is - - depends to a larger degree on Western 08:05.733 --> 08:10.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% technology and exports. So it's in their best interests to engage with the United States. 08:12.733 --> 08:15.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So I think that's why we have this advantage, the advantage that we can use, and I think we 08:17.700 --> 08:21.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% should have used more. Secretary Blinken's visit to China, for example, is based upon 08:21.100 --> 08:26.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% the assumption that somehow we could establish a direct military-to-military professional contact. 08:28.100 --> 08:32.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% That's a dream. We have tried for decades. And we have to understand the nature of the 08:34.300 --> 08:37.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Chinese Party-military relationship. The Chinese Communist Party would never allow 08:37.233 --> 08:41.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% its military to conduct independent communication with the Western... 08:41.233 --> 08:42.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% AMNA NAWAZ: Never? That will never happen? 08:42.766 --> 08:44.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% MILES YU: Never. This is the - - that's right. We -- this 08:44.400 --> 08:48.800 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% show again and again in 2001 EP-3 plane incident. 08:48.800 --> 08:50.233 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% AMNA NAWAZ: Yes. 08:50.233 --> 08:52.266 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% MILES YU: Nobody from Chinese military would pick 08:52.266 --> 08:54.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% up the phone call, and even though we had robust communication with them. 08:54.933 --> 08:59.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The nature of the party-military relationship is totally different from the West. So, 09:02.033 --> 09:04.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% this is even worse than the Soviet time, when the U.S. military and the Soviet high 09:04.833 --> 09:09.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% command could have some kind of semblance -- some kind of communication. No, this is not. 09:11.866 --> 09:15.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: So, Ryan, what are you going to be watching for now in the days and the weeks 09:15.000 --> 09:18.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ahead to judge how these meetings actually went? What's the impact of these talks? 09:18.866 --> 09:20.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% RYAN HASS: Well, we need to explore whether or 09:20.900 --> 09:25.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% not the mutual intent to lower the risk of miscalculation or miscommunication exists. 09:27.766 --> 09:31.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And we will have a series of follow-up meetings in both Washington and Beijing 09:31.000 --> 09:34.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% in the coming weeks that will sort of bring into light how much progress is 09:34.133 --> 09:37.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% possible between now and November, when we expect that President Xi will travel to 09:37.300 --> 09:40.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% United States to meet with President Biden on the margins of the APEC leaders summit. 09:40.533 --> 09:45.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And so we have this window now over the next several months to see if we can shrink space for 09:48.100 --> 09:51.700 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% miscalculation, if we can establish a cooperative agenda that is based upon mutual self-interest, 09:51.700 --> 09:54.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% where we both take actions that are in parallel to each other that serve each 09:54.600 --> 09:57.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of our respective interests. And, if so, the world will be a better place. 09:57.766 --> 10:01.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But, if not, the United States isn't a confident, strong position to get caught trying. 10:01.966 --> 10:03.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% AMNA NAWAZ: Miles, what are you watching for? 10:03.466 --> 10:05.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% MILES YU: China has to be responsible. 10:05.500 --> 10:09.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Chinese Communist Party, their actions and deeds are most important in deciding 10:09.600 --> 10:14.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the nature and direction of U.S.-China relationship. So that's why I think I'm very, 10:14.400 --> 10:19.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% very satisfied that the new China policy paradigm that 10:21.333 --> 10:24.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% emerged during the Trump administration more or less continue on to this day. 10:24.100 --> 10:29.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% The China challenge is not just a partisan issue. It's an American issue. So, for that, and I think 10:31.133 --> 10:35.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% I give Biden credit -- administration credit. However, there are some misconceptions. There 10:35.833 --> 10:40.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% are some understanding of how the Chinese system operates. We should have no illusion. 10:42.833 --> 10:45.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% For example, China always throw out this red herring called Taiwan independence. 10:47.433 --> 10:51.866 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% There is no Taiwan independence, because no political party in 10:51.866 --> 10:56.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Taiwan is advocating for Taiwan independence. Taiwan maintain -- wants to have status quo. 10:58.733 --> 11:02.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Status quo, in fact, is independence. There is no need for that. So China always force 11:04.266 --> 11:07.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the United States to make a statement, say, U.S. do not support Taiwanese independence. 11:09.500 --> 11:12.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% This is red herring. It's basically an own goal which we should not have scored. 11:12.333 --> 11:14.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% AMNA NAWAZ: Gentlemen, we will have to leave it there. I have a feeling 11:14.433 --> 11:16.966 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% we will talk about this some more. Please come back and join us again. 11:16.966 --> 11:19.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Miles Yu, Ryan Hass, thank you for your time. 11:19.233 --> 11:20.533 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% RYAN HASS: Thank you, Amna. 11:20.533 --> 11:21.666 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% MILES YU: Thank you.